DEFCON Mafia 3.0 - Over, American Victory!

[ooba]

Non-Total War
Day 1: DEFCON 3: Lynch x1 + Night-phase in which Terrorist can kill
Day 2: DEFCON 2: Lynch x1 + Night-phase in which Terrorist, Mafia can kill

Non-Total War (Assume worst case with 2 anti-town subs)
Day 1: DEFCON 5: Lynch x1 + Town Directed nukes(for 23-2 players)=6* + 2 Sub-kills + Night-phase in which Terrorist, Mafia can kill
Day 2: DEFCON 5: Lynch x1 + Town Directed nukes(for 13-2 players)=3* + 2 Sub-kills + Night-phase in which Terrorist, Mafia can kill

Worse case scenario tradeoff: 4 Sub-kills + 1 extra Mafia kill vs 9 Town Directed nukes across two days
Best case scenario (where town player wins sub) tradeoff: 2 Sub-kills + 1 extra Mafia kill vs 9 Town Directed nukes across two days + 2 town directed subs

I don't agree with Magua. Total War is the way to go ..

*estimation

Number of shots estimated on Defcon 2 Mafia Stats

Number of Players alive = 16
Shots = 5
Day 3, DEFCON 1 - SpyreX nukes SnakePlissken
Day 3, DEFCON 1 - Faraday nukes Katsuki
Day 3, DEFCON 1 - SocioPath nukes inHimshallibe
Day 3, DEFCON 1 - Mina nukes bobsnox
Day 3, DEFCON 1 - DizzyIzzyB13 nukes danakillsu


Number of Players alive = 8
Shots = 2
Day 4, DEFCON 1 - SpyreX nukes Fate
Day 4, DEFCON 1 - Mina nukes AurorusVox

[ooba]

I guess I'm in favor of total war because most of my early day reads are right. But I can live with this too ..

Here's how I see the roles\draft:

Submarine: Silent Daykill

- Should be number one or shouldn't be on your list at all

Air Base: Night Action immune (including Night kills)
Espionage: Cop for specific Faction (Mafia catcher + info role) - Doesn't make sense going after the terrorist unless you're scum
Aircraft Carrier: Roleblocker (Night Actions + Nukes)
Battleship: Doctor (Night kills + Nukes)

- Good stuff. The only part where I disagree with Magua is that Air Base is a much more useful role than Fighter - esp. for those who get nightkilled often. Putting sub first and any of these second will guarantee you wont get these so you'll have to take a call here.

Compared to Espionage, these info roles are tier II. Can still catch scum in claims\actions:

Fighter: Deployment info

(Terrorist catcher)

(Clarified by Mod)
Radar: Tracker (minus Night kills)

Relatively not useful for town:

Fallout Shelter: Nuke immune - At best, protects town from any anti-town Subs
Fail Safe: Reflexive killer on Nuke attack. Vengeful on Night attack.

Useless for town:

Eavesdrop: Possible eavesdropper
Counterintelligence: Framer+Godfather ability (Plus one night to communicate normally)

---

P-edit:The framer+godfather aspect of CI is next to useless. And both eavesdrop and CI's ability for scum to communicate normally become obsolete if scum can come up with good codes for communication .. I'd rather people try to get the good roles rather than waste their time with these roles ..

[ooba]

I'll also make a scum team call out so that it can be compared post game (if you're town that is) ..

Mafia

gorilla
Vi
SpyreX
Magua
- Mystery Player- Maybe (ToastyToast)

SK

PookyTheMagicalBear

[ooba]

Airbase is antitown crap that no town should take..

This is wrong.

ooba has done even less than usual ITT, plus he tried to swing it so that Total War was mathematically better

Total War IS quantitatively better - you get more shots at scum. The tradeoff is 9 shots vs 5 or 3 extra scum kills.

People made qualitative arguments such as
- Nuke shots will be better if we have two days worth of info
- Power roles will get revealed by not nuking before they have a chance to use the power role

Didn't see the point in arguing since I didn't see a unanimous decision on Total War.

And what does "less than usual" mean? Compared to MetaMafia where I made 5 big posts on D1? This is pre-game and I've commented on the two issues which are important
- Total War vs Non Total War
- Which troops town should aim for

---

Avox, what are you talking about?
Give me a Nuke over
- CI
- Fail Safe
- Fallout shelter
- eavesdrop
anyday .. Let scum have those powers if they want .. Think of it this way - it's One semi-lynch over something like CI which is of no use to town and minimal use to scum ..

[ooba]

Avox, what are you talking about?

If you don't want a nuke

then you should put every power on your list at some point.

Hmm ok. But there is no reason why anyone should not want a nuke unless they are trading it off for the good-average powers:
Submarine
Air Base
Espionage
Aircraft Carrier
Battleship
Fighter
Radar

I reiterate - choosing Fallout Shelter, Fail Safe, eavesdrop, CI over a Nuke is a sub-optimal and anti-town move for town.

[ooba]

I'm saying that IF you are choosing a non-nuke, you may as well rank all the others powers on your roster too.

I just disagree with this statement. Starting off with
- I want to be a PR over a nuke
- Hence I will list all PRs in my troop deployment choice
is wrong when Nukes are better than some of the PRs here.

Granted on eavesdrop - maybe someone with a analytical bent of mind can take it up.

---

It's analysis. I'd rather have reads than analysis. (Four out of your six reads are bad, btw.)

Sort of pre-game here and it is going to be mechanics talk. Try not to judge scumminess based on that cause logical about mechanics =/= town, nor is the reverse true. If I spot something scummy, I'll comment on it ..

My reads there were based on vibe:
SpyreX: Read a bit of initial Defcon 2.0 - early posting this game seems to be forced as opposed to posting in that.
Magua: Vibe vis-a-vis MetaMafia. There it was trying to figure out things - here, it gives me the vibe of trying to appear town.
Vi, gorilla - Just the posting vibes - not in relation to any meta

Toasty and Pooky were random since I had to fill out a roster of 6 to compare with Fate later.

[ooba]

@Magua: What read do you have on me?

@SDC: AirBase is on my troop deployment list .. Maybe at my #1 spot too ..

[ooba]

I don't have a read on you. We disagree on some setup strategy (whether Total War was a good idea, whether Airbase should be on town lists) but you haven't really expressed any strong reads one way or the other on anyone.

The reason I ask is because in the earlier exchange it seemed like you automatically assumed I'm town ..

We can disagree about Airbase, as I simply don't care that much, but you only have a 3/23 chance of being NKed before D3, but then you also can't be Espionage'd. Jack regretted taking it in DEFCON 2, and I agree.

[ooba]

[ooba]

Where did ooba say he was putting Airbase at #1? That's not the post I read.

@SDC: AirBase is on my troop deployment list .. Maybe at my #1 spot too ..

Thank you. You'll be my number 1 townie for this.

Stop making me look like I'm scum with you - it's tough winning as terrorist as it is ..

[ooba]

Hmm. I took RC's post to mean "That's not something I read" and thought it was scummy when he clearly had quoted it before. Since he meant "That's not what he said exactly", it's not as bad as I thought.

[ooba]

You may have Fate on your side, but I already have this card with me ..



Re-affirming my stance: I'll do what's best for the USA

[ooba]

@SpyreX: At the top of this post, you mention that Dana's 239 is scummy, but there is no mention of Dana in your scum\town list in the same post below ..

[ooba]

"Pooky, I am a true American hero and am willing to pledge my nuclear weapons to the destruction of Euro Scum and their Traitor Sympathizer Brethren, You can tell that I am a true American hero because I wanted to let the nukes fly"

[ooba]

Someone called? Lol ..

@Pooky: I don't do paragraphs - I think the best way to show you I'm a true American hero is sending a nuke in the scum's direction ..

Vote: Dana

We've already got the first scum.

Magua needs to be nuked at Defcon 1.

So if Magua is the "first scum", why vote for Dana - why not lynch Magua right now?

[ooba]

I also found some Europeans.
Dana
IS
Hez

Time to really get into this game.

After looking at Hez again: 1.) LOL 2.) I can't see this guy being mafia. Too chaotic and contradictory. Good mislynch target or avoid-bandwagon target for scum, though.

AV's hard to read for me because I can't use his language and words to read him. He picks it all too carefully. That said, I've extensively read/skimmed AV's posts in Defcon II after reading through Percy's ISO/analysis of his Eavesdrop results since someone in here said Eavesdrop-Percy was awesome. Looking at AV in Defcon III now. Ok, so here's what I got from Defcon II AV. He's focused on "Oh, please don't nuke me" A LOT. He also was more aggressive and caps'ing than I've seen him be. Actually, I've never seen him do that, town or scum. Anyways, I think AV-scum would never caps like that again so, if he's scum here, I don't think he'd caps. Aggressive, maybe, but I don't see that either. He also isn't like "Oh, shit, I'm gonna die" or showing his mad at being caught behavior here. He's also trying to get his scumreads lynched here. There, he was like "Oh Faraday u scum; I LYNCH U" and was generally EVERYWHERE with all his reads all the while being "trololol, when I flip, you will be sorry". His 618 really does fail, though, on part of this. Still, it's a lot less aggressive and more regretful he's dying instead of mad. I had to look up quite a bit of town games to see ones where he actually got pressured. TxtMafia was the one I eventually got to. He had the same regret. Overall, he reads slight town.

Dana's still scum and needs a nice bandwagon. There's nothing townish about any of his posts and, though people agree with Dana-scum, no votes. America, I'm disappoint.

The rest of you I'll get to. Pretty sure Spyrex is still town. Ludi looks bad but I'll get to him later since I just spent an hour and a half researching AV and his walls.

You comment on Dana\Hez. Commenting on AV ic cool - but you leave out one of your top three scum reads and comment on somebody like Ludi\SpyreX?

Yup. Hinduragi is scum with IS. Can see SpyreX as a third.

Vote: Internet Stranger

[ooba]

ITT not mentioning all your scumreads in a post means you're scum.

Not really. I've noticed townies always display a huge amount of confirmation bias. They always have some scum in mind and keep looking at what those people do to see if they can anything scummy. (or reevaluate).

You can be sure that in any re-read post ("Time to really get into this game"), you'll at least get one mention of previous top scum picks. The fact that you clubbed IS with the rest ("The rest of you I'll get to."), shows one of two things:

- You were never really suspicious of IS but thought you can throw in his name in the scum list. [Scum -> Town]
- He was your scumbuddy. Padded his name to the list. [Scum -> Scum]

Also - Ludi had these two posts from your earlier one (#652,#657) so he's given you even lesser than IS. I would have at least understood Ludi was on the Hez wagon you're looking at but no .. So there's no way you're commenting on this candidate instead of IS …

I'd venture it's the latter case instead of the former since IS answers questions directed at you and would apparently like to keep you after Vi. But we can do it this way too ..

Unvote. Vote: Hinduragi

[ooba]

RC is town
AV is scum
{Hindu, IS}, {SpyreX}, {AV} - would put MoI down as no.5 ..

Unvote. Vote: AV

[ooba]

Vote: AurorusVox

[ooba]

AV needs to die .. It is known ..

[ooba]

AV needs to die .. It is known ..

I want to know what AV did between Defcon 3 and 2 that earned your vote.

It's the same thing I said at Defcon 3 ..

RC is town
AV is scum
{Hindu, IS}, {SpyreX}, {AV} - would put MoI down as no.5 ..

Unvote. Vote: AV

The speed of the wagon switch from AV->RC made it clear that people were happy to leave the AV wagon ..

[ooba]

THERE IS NO LYNCHING THE EAVESDROP CLAIM TODAY.

[ooba]

Damn you!! I hate you forever for killing me!!

Go town ..

[ooba]

VOTE: hezlucky

courtesy of the red white and blue

Just trying to figure why you did this???

Stop Ninja-ing!