Mini 1137: Long Overdue Mafia [Game Over!]


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Post Post #352 (isolation #0) » Wed Mar 23, 2011 5:40 pm

Post by tarsonisocelot »

/confirm
I'll read this thread when I get home from uni.
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Post Post #355 (isolation #1) » Thu Mar 24, 2011 2:03 am

Post by tarsonisocelot »

Pine wrote:Welcome, tarsonisocelot! Is TIO an acceptable abbreviation?
TO would be better, or ocelot - Tarsonis is a
fictional
place
Anyway, having gone through the thread I should make a fewcomments and observations.

I'll be on mostly in the evening to early morning AEST (GMT+10 I think).
I haven't played enough to really have a playstyle. One completed game so far with three (including this) ongoing. In the completed game I played extremely cautiously for most of the game, then got myself NKed by becoming useful. This game I will be much less cautious though not recklessly so.

From reading the thread (I am not going to go back through and post justifications with each read, if you think I have something wrong just raise it with me):
Jahudo and Pine seem to be town
I think mikemike778 is also town and probably IdiotKing but I'm a little less sure there.
andrew94 is anti-town, but if he is scum they probably want him dead too.
neil1113 seems a little bit scummy
havingfitz seems scummy (the overreaction to pappums rat's "gambit", especially the enlarged and bolded LIES, seemed weird in a non-town way to me)
pappums rat I'm unsure about but despite the gambit/lie i think they are pro-town for now
Haven't yet formed opinions about the others.

Also: UNVOTE:
because I won't vote for someone I don't suspect unless we need to lynch and that's the only way. I'll not put havingfitz at L1 until after the weekend. You have until then to convince me that I should vote elsewhere.
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Post Post #357 (isolation #2) » Thu Mar 24, 2011 3:24 am

Post by tarsonisocelot »

havingfitz wrote: TO...350+ posts in this game and I'm the person you find most scummy (for using
EMPHASIS
)? Please do town a favor and replace out.
It's not because you used emphasis, it's because your overall reaction to the reveal of the gambit/lie seemed entirely
too
emotional. You reacted more than I would expect someone to react naturally in a forum game, and that does not indicate town to me.
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Post Post #400 (isolation #3) » Fri Mar 25, 2011 1:59 pm

Post by tarsonisocelot »

Voidedmafia wrote:
Idiotking wrote:I'm inclined to think that pappums' overreaction is just a result of being constantly trolled by fitz. It's not the overt kind with a lot of cussing, though. It's the gnawing, nagging kind, a lot of little jabs here and there that alone don't mean much but together get pretty insulting. He clearly has a low opinion of everyone who is in any way against him, and he doesn't mind voicing it. To me it looks like more of a "stop being an asshole" type thing that you get on all forums, not just mafia ones.
Well, if he didn't actually look at those posts (I didn't really look because I was doing something non-game-related at the time), then fitz hounding him for not answering is completely justified.

In that context, pappum's overreaction certainly looks scummy.
I actually also took the "f*** you" post as a reaction to fitz - I know I would probably have reacted similarly regardless of my alignment. I think we perhaps come from different backgrounds if havingfitz' protracted rageout over the gambit/lie seemed more of a normal emotional reaction than rat's "f*** you" following a fair amount of provocation. I'm not saying that rat is innocent, just that he isn't ringing as many "fake emotion" bells as fitz is for me right now.
I wish that rat had stayed as active as during the gambit/lie afterwards, his period of inactivity doesn't really look good.
That said I really dislike the way fitz is now trying to make everyone agree with him by essentially attacking everyone who doesn't immediately follow him.
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Post Post #411 (isolation #4) » Sat Mar 26, 2011 5:14 am

Post by tarsonisocelot »

havingfitz wrote: TO...your rationale for suspecting me coupled with your willingness to accept PR's "fuck you" comment is ridiculous. Why would you have made a similar comment towards me? He is my top suspect (though I have provided info on others) and I am
pressuring
him. Is pressuring your top suspect a scumtell? And lets say I'm town....just envision it.....why would I not be more inclined to suspect those pushing my mislynch for what I consider FMPOV to be poor reasons? And my reasons provided in my suspicions towards others are not "Because you are voting me"...I've provided specific examples for pappum AND Cecily and to a lesser degree, IK. IMO you are not bringing anything to this game atm. Please try harder.
Right now, I would be interested to see either you or rat lynched as there are valid reasons to suspect both of you.
I'm beginning to lean more towards pappum than you as, while the "f*** you" post seemed like it could have been a natural reaction to your needling (I don't mean the fact that you were questioning him, I mean the way you were and the way you were dealing with others), he has now had more than enough time to calm down and post something in answer to the points that have been raised against him.

I've seen and agree with several of your points about PR and Cecily, I'll have to reread your IK posts though.

I dislike the way you seem to view your way of thinking as the only correct way - "You're getting better" as a response to someone who disagreed with you in general agreeing with one of your points - and I also dislike your little insults. They're non-constructive and seem almost designed to elicit a negative emotional response. Are they? If so, why? Do you think we'll post "better" or agree with you more if you act in this manner? If not, why do you continue to do so? Why did you seem to enter some kind of "betrayed mode" for a while after tha gambit/lie was revealed as such?

Pappum: How did you come up with this gambit? What was the intended result (as specifically as possible)? How did you decide who to target/which role to claim? What is your view on the Neighbourizer claim by voided? Why did you let it go on so long?

andrew: Is English your first language? Do you have anything useful to contribute? If so, what is it? Using a text editor with spelling and grammar checking built in to type up your posts might help you to make them more readable and give you some extra time to make sure that what you're saying actually makes sense. If you continue to post in the manner you have been doing, you are not helping the town. As far as I can see the only reason to actively do that is because you are scum. If you aren't scum, act for the good of the town and at least attempt to post coherently.

Pine: How would you analyse Xalxe's play earlier in this game?



I've read the entire thread, but am still processing some parts and, due to real life commitments, am unlikely to be able to do much in the way of exhaustive analysis until the 10th of April if I'm still alive then. I have time to contribute but don't expect walls of analysis until then.
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Post Post #477 (isolation #5) » Mon Mar 28, 2011 10:08 pm

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neil1113 wrote:I would normally NEVER under ANY CIRCUMSTANCE recommend a self-hammer, but nobody here seems to like you Rat. Which is funny, you seem to be living up to your display name on the forum. So I'll ask you, do us all a favor and self hammer, get out of this game please so we can move on?

If not, someone please hammer him and shut him up? I don't care if anything I'm saying here looks scummy, I'm fed up with him.
Neil is seeming less and less town to me as time goes on.

Main wagon possible results:
Rat/Fitz both scum: this has been an extremely epic instance of distancing. Very unlikely but if true kudos.
Rat/Fitz both town: playstyle/personality clash turned into mislynch. Possible.

Rat town/Fitz scum: gambit successful, shame it tore apart the town - there are definitely better ways to get the ball rolling.
I'm currently leaning away from this option, based on pretty much the whole of the last page.

Rat scum/Fitz town: rat has traded in his life to completely derail all discussion on Day 1
Possible, more probable than the reverse but only by a little,
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Post Post #481 (isolation #6) » Tue Mar 29, 2011 3:12 am

Post by tarsonisocelot »

neil1113 wrote:Pine, I'd rather you call me scum then NewbTown. I'm NOT new by any means to Mafia...

Also, did Tarson really just post the biggest WIFOM, Fluff post in the game? Epic. I'm not Scum because I simply am annoyed by a VI's play, as he's annoying several people and is making the game less fun. I'd rather lose as town then to suffer through someone like him and win a game that no one enjoyed. Maybe you're different? This doesn't paint me as scum though, just annoyed. It's not a tell either way. To say it is, would be to dive into WIFOM. Which is okay for you to do Tarson, since your last post was basically nothing but speculation.
I have a slightly unfortunate tendency to view things as probability trees, which necessarily involve speculation if you wish to add any analysis not directly numerically implied. As I am NewbTown(2 games finished elsewhere, one of which was a bastard mod and therefore non-educational), I have a less nuanced view of tells than others so there are possibly things that I miss.
In this case, the summary is that I do not think both are scum, and split the other probabilities with pappums rat being slightly more likely than havingfitz to be mafia and a smaller but not insignificant probability of then both being town. I will make a note to keep my thoughts in my head at least until I can provide a summary with them. I will vote based on the probability tree on Friday night, when I have a few hours break scheduled between pieces of coursework and it's close enough to the deadline for me to be comfortable with bringing someone to L1 or hammering.

I understand your point about the current situation being less than fun(though that's not entirely due to rat), but to suggest self hammering? It's not the only reason you seem scummy, just the most readily quotable.
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Post Post #504 (isolation #7) » Wed Mar 30, 2011 4:21 pm

Post by tarsonisocelot »

VOTE: Pine
I think you are suspicious.
Will probably move this to where it will count on Friday/Saturday as I have stated, when I have time to review the thread.
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Post Post #608 (isolation #8) » Mon Apr 04, 2011 7:00 am

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havingfitz wrote:Voided's claim and the prospect of somehow proving it are not worth consideration IMO. Why?

Scum Void fakeclaiming could claim he neighborized a) a scumbuddy, or b) awwwwwwwww...the nk victim. If scumbuddy a is eventually killed and flips...VM could just say...I didn't know he was scum when I neighbored him.

Town Void telling the truth could pick a) scum as a neighbor or b) town as a neighbor, or c) awwwwwwwww...the nk victim. If scum a is eventually killed and flips...VM could just say...I didn't know he was scum when I neighbored him. b) even if town was neighbored and indicated such...even with a Void or neighbored town's flip [of town] we would still have no confidence that the other side of the duo was town.

Void's claim and any result of it IMO is null.


mod, TO and.......surprise!.......Idiotking could use a prod.
Exactly my thoughts, and saying that the neighborized player should stay quiet about it seems to be a way to avoid scrutiny if no-one comes forward to claim that tomorrow.
Voidedmafia wrote: But then, that raises the question: Why go after me, then, since I haven't really tried to go after you?
This seemed out of place in response to the gambit. If you are town, your first reaction to being claimed to be scum by someone claiming investigative powers should be that they must be scum -
"Voidedmafia" wrote: I know. -_- But I still detest being told to scumhunt like that.
In what circumstances do you not mind being expected to scumhunt?



At this stage, I view Fitz as town, PT Barnum as town and mike & Jahudo as town. Nacho has been helpful and reminded me of what made the gambit seem so convincing up until the moment of the reveal - Voided's reaction. Voided also at one point described himself as "anti-town more than scummy". Nacho/PR I'm going to leave in the suspicious but undetermined pile. Neil seems suspicious, Pine I'm not keen on, Bub I have no opinion on and Cecily I'm personally null on right now.

At this point it seems obvious to me that I should UNVOTE: Pine and VOTE: Voidedmafia as Voided's behaviour during the gambit was the most suspicious thing so far in the game, and I'm no longer suspicious enough of Nacho or Fitz to vote for them and this wagon stands a good chance of leading to a lynch.
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Post Post #616 (isolation #9) » Mon Apr 04, 2011 11:36 am

Post by tarsonisocelot »

Voidedmafia wrote: I don't mind being asked to scumhunt or give my suspicions, like Fitz did. It can make the person decide and WANT to do so as well, though their reasons may very

I DO mind being imperatively told to do so. There's a difference. Saying it like Chk does makes your suspicions seem forced and made just to appease the town. At least, that's what I think.
I can understand that.
Voidedmafia wrote:
tarsonisocelot wrote:Voided also at one point described himself as "anti-town more than scummy".
I did?
tarsonisocelot wrote:At this point it seems obvious to me that I should UNVOTE: Pine and VOTE: Voidedmafia as Voided's behaviour during the gambit was the most suspicious thing so far in the game, and I'm no longer suspicious enough of Nacho or Fitz to vote for them and this wagon stands a good chance of leading to a lynch.
Nothing else AFTER the gambit, or during?
You did say exactly that in your 25th post of this thread, and upon reflection no, nothing stands out to me as more suspicious as your total response to the gambit. After the gambit most of the thread became consumed with the Fitz vs. Rat thing, which I think may have been largely a playstyle/personality clash.
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Post Post #635 (isolation #10) » Fri Apr 08, 2011 6:07 pm

Post by tarsonisocelot »

Voidedmafia wrote:EBWOP: I hate that the lynch is on me instead of rat.

Actually, I would prefer that I go ahead and hammer myself, if that's all right. You'll still get last thoughts and my "notes" from me before i do so. I'm not so stupid as to do that.
Pine: Why did you hammer before Voidedmafia posted their notes?
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Post Post #637 (isolation #11) » Fri Apr 08, 2011 6:17 pm

Post by tarsonisocelot »

neil1113 wrote:*sigh* I wish I was around before the lynch happened. This is NOT a good start for us guys. So let's go ahead and get rid of one scum while we can:

VOTE: tarsonisocelot

Gut feeling makes you seem very suspicious to me. Something about your case wasn't right, and I felt it then but I didn't step out like I should have and ISO'd you. So I'm going to be doing that shortly.
If I make mistakes when trying to put together a case please point them out. I am still quite new to this game so I might miss scum or towntells through inexperience - if you can explain logically why something I have said is wrong then correct me.

In this instance, what was not right about my case? And doesn't "gut feeling" seem a little strong for voting me - do you have anything concrete?
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Post Post #640 (isolation #12) » Fri Apr 08, 2011 7:19 pm

Post by tarsonisocelot »

Setael wrote:Hi everyone. Pine and tarsonisocelot are scum. I'd vote TO but my scum read on Pine is stronger so I'd prefer he die today. Pine's first D2 post is lollapalobvscum. If there's a third I'd lean toward P.T. but Pine said something at one point that indicated there are 2 scum so I'm thinking maybe 2 scum and a traitor or something to that effect.

Sorry in advance for the wall.



-TO’s initial post raises flags for declaring pine town
I don't think that saying someone "seems town" is quite as strong as a declaration. At the time Pine seemed to be contributing, later events and the posts of others gave me a different feeling.


-pine 364 scummy - discusses mafia strategy and then
unvotes and revotes pappums
. fluff disguised as content
Didn't notice that before. Why would scum do that?


-Jahudo’s post 401 re: Pine’s scumminess is win. This post is probably why Jahudo was NK'd. (*high five* for drawing a NK as VT, Jahudo.)
One of the posts that made me doubt Pine.


-Pine’s post 478 accusing TO of waffling and basically instructing her to vote (and the fact that TO ignored it completely) indicates a scum link between TO and Pine
The post he referred to as waffling was a layout of the potential outcome of the lynch (had fitz or rat been lynched) and the motivations. I did respond to it being called fluff by trying to explain why I had though it through - if one of those two had been killed by this point I would be using that reasoning to think about the other's likely alignment. I was not at that point willing to put someone to L2 or higher, there was no need to respond to the "more voting" part (I did vote lateron the grounds that my vote wouldn't do any harm being on some other suspicious player as I weighed up the existing wagons). Responding to that post and Neil's at the same time is not the same as ignoring.


-Hammer, please.” So not only is he trying to get pappums hammered before replacements can weigh in, didn't he earlier accuse others of being scummy for this exact thing (getting rid of a player about to be replaced)? - Need to look back at this.
Do you see why a gut town feel several pages previously might have seemed less like something to rely on with posts like this?


-Post 492 Pine indicates the game has 2 scum (he says getting his scum read pappums lynched would make it a "one scum game". Especially where it seems more likely there'd be 3 scum, this reeks of inside info.
I missed this post. Guess this means if we lynch Pine and he's scum(which presently seems likely) then we can take it that there's only one left. Nice.


-Post 504 TO votes Pine without giving a reason and says she’ll move her vote “to where it will count” the next day. Pretty obvious and poor attempt at distancing.
Pine was obviously not a likely candidate for actual lynching on Day 1. Pine was still a bit suspicious and it did no harm there.


-Neil asked voided if there’s a way to test her role claim. This was a townie mindset.
I agree. But the way Voided wanted them to not reveal seems counterproductive to the idea that neighborizing would prove town-ness.


-bub’s vote i get town vibes from, but TO’s in 608 is scumtastic. also says “Pine I’m not keen on” which is the perfect thing to say about a scum buddy that you just voted but certainly never planned to try to get wagoned. (Keep in mind that she cleared Pine as town upon first replacing in and I don't recall her ever giving a solid reason for losing that. If in fact, she had found something Pine did scummy at some point she'd have mentioned it and she'd have acknowledged his soft accusation that she was waffling.)
When I was replacing in Pine seemed fairly town to me, many little things had made me trust my initial feeling much less. Therefore he was now on the "less town" side of my list.


-So then we have Pine's hammer, which is possibly the scummiest hammer I’ve ever read. Says he’s going to post a case for Voided as town and then hammers her for saying she’d be willing to self vote to avoid a no lynch. It’s priceless that he says “I'm really, really torn now” and gives her playstyle instructions if she flips town and then immediately hammers.
Yes.
TL;DR: I did not completely ignore Pine calling one of my posts fluff. Most of 481 deals with the reasoning behind that post and my voting plan. Therefore your claims that I was ignoring it in order to distance are untrue (whether deliberately or not I'm not going to guess yet).
My initial gut feeling towards Pine was that he was town, but subsequent posts and other players' analyses of them reversed my view bit by bit (as in there was no single thing that made me change.

Since the event that you claimed showed a scumlink between Pine and I never occurred, do you still believe that I am part of a scumteam? If so, what is your new reasoning?

Now I think Pine is probably scum as I can see no other motivation for hammering Voided before getting their last thoughts.
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Post Post #646 (isolation #13) » Sat Apr 09, 2011 1:53 am

Post by tarsonisocelot »

Pine wrote:Goddamnit. I've got to learn to stick with my first instincts in this game, and not get swayed at the last minute.

VOTE: Nachomamma8

You're stuck with PR's legacy and massive scum pings. Add on top of that the fact that he nearly succeeded in getting a Townie mislynched, and you helped finish the job, this vote IS NOT MOVING without a compelling reason.
Explain why you hammered Voided like that. If there is any reason not to lynch you, share it with us.
VOTE: Pine
You are at L-1. You are there because you have acted in a way in which I and others cannot see town playing and you have taken from us information we could have gained by hammering voided before their last list of suspects.

In the meantime: I propose that no-one should hammer Pine before 48 hours after he posts his defense to ensure that everyone is still happy with the lynch.
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Post Post #651 (isolation #14) » Sat Apr 09, 2011 5:27 am

Post by tarsonisocelot »

havingfitz wrote:That was a quick push to L-1. It would be good to hear from Nacho and Cecily before a quicklynch happens. Pine has my vote but I'll
Unvote
for now so we don't wind up with a <48 hr D2.
My thinking for putting my vote there was that it would be the most pressure that could be put on Pine, and that the sheer scumminess of hammering at this point in the day would either stop scum from doing so or give us a good idea of who to lynch tomorrow/give a vig a target that's pretty much confirmed scum.
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Post Post #653 (isolation #15) » Sat Apr 09, 2011 5:53 am

Post by tarsonisocelot »

Setael wrote:
TO wrote:I don't think that saying someone "seems town" is quite as strong as a declaration. At the time Pine seemed to be contributing, later events and the posts of others gave me a different feeling.

One of the posts that made me doubt Pine.

Do you see why a gut town feel several pages previously might have seemed less like something to rely on with posts like this?

When I was replacing in Pine seemed fairly town to me, many little things had made me trust my initial feeling much less. Therefore he was now on the "less town" side of my list.
Why did you never mention this about any of his posts? You avoided interacting with him and unless I missed it, you never mentioned that your read on him was changing and never questioned these things that supposedly were changing your read. Why not?
My first list after reading the thread gave provisional reads, which were gradual made more or less certain by posters actions. I commented only on ones that seemed particularly relevant at the time because I did not have time to give a detailed analytical update whenever two players switched places in my "mental scale of scum likelihood". Pine was not a focus for most of them so going through and giving a detailed "this is why I have a different feeling now" would not have been useful. I gave more frequent updates of my feelings about the main wagons.

I didn't change my read from "a little scummy" to "almost certain scum" until the hammer, and I hardly avoided that issue, did I?
TO wrote:
Setael wrote:-pine 364 scummy - discusses mafia strategy and then unvotes and revotes pappums. fluff disguised as content
Didn't notice that before. Why would scum do that?
Are you asking me? Or is this a rhetorical question meant to make us doubt that PineScum would do this?
I'm asking as someone who still doesn't really understand why any player would do an unvote/vote of the same player post.

It seems odd that you'd be asking me since the answer is in the post you just quoted, but if you are I'll clarify - like I said I think the whole post is fluff disguised as content. That's something scum does to look like they're contributing without having to post anything that might draw attention to them or that could help the town later when they flip.
TO wrote:The post he referred to as waffling was a layout of the potential outcome of the lynch (had fitz or rat been lynched) and the motivations. I did respond to it being called fluff by trying to explain why I had though it through - if one of those two had been killed by this point I would be using that reasoning to think about the other's likely alignment. I was not at that point willing to put someone to L2 or higher, there was no need to respond to the "more voting" part (I did vote lateron the grounds that my vote wouldn't do any harm being on some other suspicious player as I weighed up the existing wagons). Responding to that post and Neil's at the same time is not the same as ignoring.
It's not that you ignored it entirely, it's that you avoided any interaction with Pine. You didn't address his post at all which you're much more likely to do if he's your scum buddy imo. Especially if you were starting to find him scummier like you say, your avoidance of him is telling.
I'm not sure how you interpret answering the questions asked by Pine as avoiding interaction with Pine.
TO wrote: I missed this post. Guess this means if we lynch Pine and he's scum(which presently seems likely) then we can take it that there's only one left. Nice.
What makes you think there wouldn't be a 3rd - a traitor or something like that? Do you and Pine have strong PRs which makes you think it's just you 2?
I'm not scum. I have no idea how many scum there might be. If Pine flips scum then, given that post, it seems likely that there may be only one mafia left (though there may also be an SK I guess I'm not really sure what traitors do).
TO wrote:
Setael wrote:-Post 504 TO votes Pine without giving a reason and says she’ll move her vote “to where it will count” the next day. Pretty obvious and poor attempt at distancing.
Pine was obviously not a likely candidate for actual lynching on Day 1. Pine was still a bit suspicious and it did no harm there.
The only reason you'd vote someone just because they're not a likely lynch candidate and because it does no harm there is if you're scum buddies and you want to distance. That's my point, which you've just confirmed.
Or because it gives an indication of who I currently am suspicious of, at that point there were a couple of people I might have voted for until I was willing o commit fully to a main wagon - which I didn't want to do until necessary so i would have to most information when making my decision.
TO wrote:
Setael wrote:Neil asked voided if there’s a way to test her role claim. This was a townie mindset.
I agree. But the way Voided wanted them to not reveal seems counterproductive to the idea that neighborizing would prove town-ness.
What is your motivation in saying this? Are you trying to undermine my town read of Neil? Or are you saying this is why you did not ask about testing the role claim? Or are you saying this as a reason for your read on Voided yesterday? Please clarify.
This was saying nothing about Neil. Voided, in asking to neighbor to not claim, was asking to be allowed to forma some kind of semi-covert alliance with another player (I thought yesterday with a scumbuddy, but obv. not.) without us thinking it suspicious.

You still seem to think that answering a players questions == avoiding that player. Why does that seem odd to me?
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Post Post #660 (isolation #16) » Sat Apr 09, 2011 2:59 pm

Post by tarsonisocelot »

Setael wrote:
TO wrote:You still seem to think that answering a players questions == avoiding that player. Why does that seem odd to me?
If I had to guess, it's because you're desperately looking for a reason to be suspicious of me.
Really? You think the only reason someone would find this odd is because they were attempting to find a reason to be suspicious of you

Can you please quote where you answered pine's questions? I'm not referring to any question he asked you so I'm not sure what you're referring to. I'm talking about where he accused you of waffling and told you to vote and you ignored him. You say that you explained your post better as a response to him, but that's not how you would've responded if you were town who was getting a stronger and stronger scum read on him. It IS how you'd respond to avoid interacting too much with a scum buddy.

I don't think you should be today's lynch, as much of my suspicion of you relies on Pine being scum. I'll come back to you after he flips scum. (Or if Pine flips scum and I get NK'd tonight the rest of you better revisit the pine-TO connection since it's pretty glaring.)
As there is no connection then I don't see how it could be glaring.

The question was:
Pine wrote:Were you planning on voting, or just waffling?

as you well know given you paraphrased it in your first wall.
My response was not particularly concise, and answered both Pine and Neil at the same time (because they posted similar things) - I was trying to explain that my previous post was an attempt at understanding and laying down my plan to respond to the main wagons. It clearly said that I was not voting at the time for the 2 main wagons as I didn't want them at L-1 at that time. I decided a day later(real time) that I found Pine suspicious enough to declare it with a vote, giving other townies a chance to see my thoughts for the couple of days between that post and the time that I was hoping to be awake and with enough free time to reread fitz vs rat. Link below.
viewtopic.php?p=2924414#p2924414


It would take a lot of counter-evidence for me to believe anyone but Pine should be today's lynch. I will spend today trying to work out who should be lynched tomorrow.
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Post Post #661 (isolation #17) » Sat Apr 09, 2011 3:01 pm

Post by tarsonisocelot »

Important question: How likely is it that there is a roleblocker in the mafia in this type of game?
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Post Post #663 (isolation #18) » Sat Apr 09, 2011 6:59 pm

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chkflip wrote:
Pine is L-1
, right? That's pretty fast. Still reading, will have something to say shortly.
No, Fitz unvoted.
Fitz wrote:TO...why are you defending your vote? It was only one of 5.
I just would like a little more conversation in the day than ~1 page worth.
So do I. I was explaining the reasoning behind voting to L-1 at that stage - any person to hammer this quickly would have been confirmed scum even when Pine flipped scum. (Or even more so in the highly unlikely event that he is town.) So scum couldn't hammer without basically revealing, meaning we would get time for more discussion.
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Post Post #676 (isolation #19) » Mon Apr 11, 2011 2:23 am

Post by tarsonisocelot »

Ok, I've been thinking about doing this for a while and I think it's a good decision because right now the alternative seems to be just lynching Pine then starting on tomorrow after someone else is nightkilled. I think that giving town a real incentive to use the full length of the day to discuss should give us more of a chance to draw out scum responses and that this will do that.

I am a One-shot vigilante. I am willing to shoot whoever the town thinks is the most scummy besides Pine by a democratic choice in night 2.
If you want me to count you as voting for someone to be shot tonight, put NightVote:playername in the last line of any post in normal text (unvotes likewise).
The decision will be made if any player has a)more than 50% of the votes, or b) significantly more votes than their nearest contender.

Given a Pine lynch seems pretty much a sure thing following his voided hammer and subsequent abandonment of the thread, this should give us a reason to extend the day as long as possible.
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Post Post #684 (isolation #20) » Mon Apr 11, 2011 5:14 am

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havingfitz wrote:Not sure that was the best move to make TO since we don't know what abilities scum have. Now you could be RB'd and NK'd or possibly JK'd if the "NightVote" frontrunner is scum. If the "NightVote" frontrunner is not scum...then scum let you kill and they are either happy to let you live another day or take you out the following night as confirmed town. Haven't played too many games with Vig's but I would assume if you are in fact a vig...that scum have some PRs as well. :|

It might be better if we make our cases for our top non-Pine suspect and you decide to Vig on your own without telling us. If someone does come in and hammer Pine you should definitely use your shot tonight...if you are able to. I doubt you'll get another chance.

Also...I don't see Scum making a bold move like this when they have not suffered any losses and when TO isn't really getting that much attention.

If I'm to believe TO's claim and therefore tat she is town...that makes Void's lynch a bit more interesting to mull over. With seven on Void's mislynch I would be very surprised if there weren't at least two scum on his wagon. So IMO, if we remove Jahudo and TO from the mix...that two of Pine, chkflip, PT, Bub, and Nacho are scum. This sucks FMPOV because two of my top three suspects are not on the Void lynch...Cecily and neil. Of those two I am inclined to pass on neil and maintain my suspicions of Cecily. On the five let on the Void wagon...Pine is looking to be the concensus scum suspect which leaves one more. :? One of chkflip, PT, bub, and Nacho. I've had a town feel from Bub so for me...I would be looking at one of the chkflip, PT or Nacho group. I'm inclined to think chkflip is town because I seriously doubt andrew replaces out of a game where he is scum. So from my disjointed process of elimination that leaves me with PT and Nacho. Slight scum edge to Nacho but I would need to look them both over more closely.

tl:dr;
Not sure you should have claimed TO but my top suspects after Pine are Cecily annnnnnd based off POE and VCA a distant 2nd and 3rd of Nacho........................&...PT.
I'm not sure it was the right move either, but as I'm only one-shot I'll be a VT as soon as I've fired. Your idea about me picking from cases makes sense.
I've never played in a game with a roleblocker before (and I'm hoping that this isn't my first), and the only one I've played in with a vig was a bastard mod (as we found out on Day 2 following 8 night kills/23 players).

The main purpose is to keep discussion alive even though we already have Pine as pretty much confirmed scum.

I like the reasoning about the voided lynch. I'll be reading through P.T. and checking the pre-gambit rat/nacho posts out tomorrow.
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Post Post #698 (isolation #21) » Mon Apr 11, 2011 6:11 pm

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Pine wrote:
Bub Bidderskins wrote:Hmmm, Pine's post seems wordy and desperate. He knows he's in a corner and is trying to find a way out of it with a cleverly disguised OMGUS.

Pine, who did you track last night?
I ended up going out after dinner, second post is only half complete. I read Mastin's MD article on cops (and by extension, cop-like roles like Trackers) as soon as I read my role PM. I'd heard of it, but never read it before. It suggests staying away from people likely to be lynched and people you've got strong reads on. I followed mikemike and got nothing.
Why wouldn't you follow someone you believe strongly to be scum? If it's all in the article, summarize the relevant parts and link please.

Also, could you please post the rest of your defense soon, preferably along with what would have been your voided defense argument.
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Post Post #699 (isolation #22) » Mon Apr 11, 2011 6:15 pm

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Setael: Could you comment on Idiotking's play?
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Post Post #701 (isolation #23) » Tue Apr 12, 2011 3:27 am

Post by tarsonisocelot »

havingfitz wrote:
Pine wrote:Result is directly above your post. It was intended to be part of Post 3.
Since this post you have posted 14 times in three other games. And have logged in as recently as 5.5 hours ago i.e. five hours after your last post in here and 8.5 hours after you stated you were an hour away from your part two. :shifty:

Tick Tock.....
As Pine is apparently bluffing about having a defense and was apparently bluffing about having a "voided is town" argument ready yesterday I suggest we ignore them as confirmed scum and focus on other players for a while. There's a lot of day left for us to get information with and focusing so much on Pine, when we already know we'll lynch him doesn't seem to have that much point. He seems to have pretty much given up on surviving here.
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Post Post #709 (isolation #24) » Tue Apr 12, 2011 2:59 pm

Post by tarsonisocelot »

Setael wrote:
tarsonisocelot wrote:Setael: Could you comment on Idiotking's play?
Obviously I'm biased since I know he was town. I disagreed with his logic about the initial Voided wagon, as I mentioned. Nothing else stood out to me much.

What's your read on chkflip?
Thanks for the answer.


I got nothing from andrew except that fitz had a good idea about policy lynching him and I don't want to play a game with him on my side.

Yesterday chkflip tunnelled on voided. All of their posts longer than 4 lines had "voided is scum" as the main point, though they did FOS fitz and HOS cecily and ask a question of neil in the first long post.
chkflip wrote:Pine is L-1, right? That's pretty fast. Still reading, will have something to say shortly.
On Sunday.
We have yet to hear anything from them since aside from 2 votes not accompanied by reasons.

FOS: chkflip
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Post Post #1298 (isolation #25) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 11:03 pm

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Faraday wrote:NO DON'T BE CONSERVATIVE. Awesome gambit is awesome. You can expect some people to react badly, fuck it, don't let it get to you.

This.
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