MagnaofIllusion wrote:GreyICE wrote: AHEM
There is a STARTINGLY HUGE difference between a game that can end BEFORE DAY 2 starts and this one. The EARLIEST THIS GAME COULD END WOULD BE –
Day 1 – Lynch Town (8:3:1)
Night 1 – Weak Doc dies protecting, Mafia and SK both hit Town, Inventor is motivated and gives a Gun to Town who Shoots Town (4:3:1)
Day 2 – Lynch SK (4:3)
Night 2 – Mafia kills Town and Wins.
So the ABSOLUTE earliest the game could end would be N2, not N1. Furthermore I can run the statistics if want me to quantify ( on a pure random chance model anyway ) the difference in probabilities between this game and Cupcake Mafia.
By the way, I got bored and did this. Cupcake:
* Scum lynch (3/13)
* Vig shoots scum (2/12)
* Scum Night Kill Bomb (1/10)
* Scum NKing bomb is different than scum being vigged (1/2)
Total: 1/520 (0.19%)
Odds your game:
* Town is lynched (9/13)
* WD protects scum (4/11)
* Scum NK non-WD town (7/9)
* SK NKs other town (non-WD, non-NK) (6/11)
* Inventor gives gun (1/4)
* To scum (3/11) - (Shot Odds 5/9)
* To town or SK (8/11) - (5/11)
Total odds: 1.29%
Or 7350/570999 (oh adding complex fractions, what won't you do...)
Around 6.5 times more likely for yours to have the 'worst possible' case than Cupcake.
Lets face it, percents that low HAVE to be thrown out.
Because I can, Brotherhood, multicase:
Day 1 cases, two kills:
*Dayvig N-bulletproof scum (1/12)
*Lynch Scum (2/10)
*dayvig other scum (2/12)
*lynch bulletproof scum (1/11)
(assuming that the dayvig is unlynchable day 1)
N1 Cases, 1 scum death:
*Vig scum (1/10)
*Redirect scum (1/10) onto themselves (only logical redirect target)
Day 1 case, bulletproof dies:
Vigged (1/12) or lynched (1/11)
N1, two deaths:
Redirector redirects scum submitting NK (1/10)
Vig vigs other scum (1/10)
Total chances of ending on day 1:
19/6000 (2 scum dead day 1, 1 dead night 1) + 1/600 (bulletproof dies day 1 + 2 dead scum N1) = 29/6000
So summarize:
I-Pod, worse case: 1.29%
Brotherhood, ends day 1: 0.48%
Cupcake, ends day 1: 0.19%