Open 318: By Nomination Only (Game Over)

[Fenchurch]

^ Disagree. I tend to believe people who claim with conviction off the bat in real life games, or at least find the action useful in gaining a read, and that extends somewhat to forum games.

VOTE: forest_air

[Fenchurch]

Amrun, why back away from the vote so quickly? What do you see as the purpose of an "RV"? Is your current read on Papa Zito leaning towards town or scum?

[Fenchurch]

Claim VT.

See how simple, easy, and pointless it is? Can we move on?

There's a difference between an unprompted claim, and a claim that follows a discussion about claiming.

And I wouldn't say it gave me a strong read, the key is "with conviction", which is a lot harder to judge online. I just don't think it is pointless, like you were saying.

Amrun: do you think you will be on the nomination list tomorrow?

VOTE: muffin
same reason as my previous forest vote

What was the reason for your forest vote? "welcome back"?

forest: any comments on the game?

[Fenchurch]

Rory is a hydra who doesn't want reveal the players controlling him.

[Fenchurch]

So a kind of alt, depending on your definition of alt.

[Fenchurch]

a) You're wrong, I'm not scum.

b) You say I've done "Nothing" and then proceed to give a list of the things I have done.
Which are more than many of the players in the game so far. (see: forest_air, Copper, Rory, zMuffinMan)

c) My read on PZ

is

, currently, slightly-town. Based on his other actions as well. In #34 I was just saying that the claiming-tell is not strong (like, 1 point on a 100 point scale), as a couple of people were saying that I had a townread on him and I felt that was too far. Ultimately, I'm not fond of declaring people town early on, because I've seen games where scum get an easy ride that way.

d) Was it necessary to quote Rory's post just to correct that spelling error? What is your read on Rory?

[Fenchurch]

I can't post around the clock. I was busy last night, and will be busy over the weekend as well. I've been re-reading but it was easier for me to address your comments first.

Now,
Looking back, I don't like the way Amrun votes Papa Zito, then she backs down and says it was just a random vote and didn't mean she thought he was scum, then then claims she did it for reaction testing, she finally unvotes when Zito says that his claim was done to kickstart the game (even though people had already proposed that as an idea before), as if this was what she had been waiting for. This whole passage of play reads to me as fake.

Later she echoes the questioning of NS and finds a way to put a vote on him, the new leading wagon.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Amrun

Personally, I don't see what people are finding scummy in NS. I don't really agree with his reads, but there are some things (like betting on the nomination list) that I see as less likely to come from scum.

I'd like to hear more from forest_air and VitaminR.

[Fenchurch]

Fenchurch, could you describe to me your initial thought process about the Amrun-PZ thing and how it has changed? Just in a few sentences or a paragraph, I don't need a novel.

At the start of the game I just disagreed with her response to Zito - of course everyone would claim VT, but I didn't agree that it's either a scummy or a pointless action. Then when I read back through the game, I found it odd the way she reacted to the criticism, and the way she changed her explanation, it rings false and scummy. Does no one else think this?

[Fenchurch]

But I'm not going to be rushed. Though if someone can convince me that divulging town reads is a good idea in this set-up, I'll share those.

You could be convinced to divulge your town reads but not your scum reads? How does this make sense?

Hoopla is right, I feel bad since it's not exactly a large game, but at the moment I'm struggling to keep up with everyone, and it seems that by the time I've finished drafting a post it is no longer relevant. I've got a lot on irl as well though, and over this weekend. But I'll look back and post some more shortly I hope.

[Fenchurch]

You don't think it's scummy that he is trying to policy lynch us for unreadability while having "scumreads" on Hoopla and Amrun? You find nothing wrong about him trying to game the nomination list to get a player on it, rather than just voting that player?

I think it's anti-town, but I'm not sure if it makes him scum. I agree with him in that I think hydras will be more difficult to read; but to openly go for a policy lynch over a scummy one isn't good play.
It does seem a bit like he's trying to "game" the nomination list, and that's

why

I think he's town. If he's scum, he doesn't need to get players on it, as he can just put up whoever he likes.

NS: Why did it take you so long to change your vote, despite people asking about it? Do you think there is a benefit to policy lynching a player for being "unreadable"?

But bad or simply absent-minded scum are overly concerned with saving face - they'd rather JUSTIFY their inaction instead of RESOLVING it. Or, to phrase it another way, concern with appearance over effectiveness is a scumtell, and we feel even safer calling TwistedSpoon town and VitaminR scum.

I agree with this. I think that scum will often (wrongly) believe that backtracking would look suspicious, and decide that it's better to stick to their argument when they're called out on it.

[Fenchurch]

You don't think it's scummy that he is trying to policy lynch us for unreadability while having "scumreads" on Hoopla and Amrun? You find nothing wrong about him trying to game the nomination list to get a player on it, rather than just voting that player?

...
It does seem a bit like he's trying to "game" the nomination list, and that's

why

I think he's town. If he's scum, he doesn't need to get players on it, as he can just put up whoever he likes.

Thinking back on this, if NS is scum then it could be that he is setting Amrun up to be lynched after he puts her on the list, by pushing the idea that she would put herself in there. So I don't think it is a town-tell actually.

[Fenchurch]

NS, could you answer these questions?

NS: Why did it take you so long to change your vote from Copper to Hoopla, despite people asking about it? Do you think there is a benefit to policy lynching a player for being "unreadable"?

[Fenchurch]

Fenchurch, what do you think of my vote on Rory?

Like Amrun, I would also like to know what made you change your mind between #178 and #180.

But I'm inclined to agree on the Rory vote. He's barely posted anything about his reads, but whenever anyone points that out he gets all aggressive and snarly, saying that it's their fault for not understanding his posts, when he hasn't written them clearly at all.

He's technically correct about cognitive dissonance, but it obvious what Zito meant, call it doublethink or craplogic if you prefer, and Rory's long post was mostly pointless, because he later says to 'stop assuming things, he would have voted Zito if he thought he was scum'. When Copper asks "If not Zito, then who?", his response is "If you want to know what my thoughts are about the game, follow Zito's example and ask what you can't understand." What was Copper doing there if not asking?

Then later in #149 he gets annoyed for the opposite reason, we haven't been assuming

enough

, and his reads should have been obvious. I think his reasons here don't make sense (Amrun falling for a "newbie trap" means she is town, Hoopla saying something reasons means she is town). He uses the phrase "worry about" to describe those he finds scummy, which I find odd. And despite trying to hold back the wagon on NS until page 10, he declares that "NS is scum."

[Fenchurch]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Rory

[Fenchurch]

I'm slightly skeptical about the strength of this tell, now that I have it in words, because I could also conceive a town-Amrun committing such an action.

The bit that I see as scummy from Amrun, is #8 and #12, where she talks about how it was a "random vote" and doesn't mean she thinks he was scum, then #15, where she says she placed the vote "to see what shook out". If the purpose of the vote was for reaction-testing, then she was nullifying it's effect by previously saying it was just random. Her explanation is that she has a different meaning for "random" to everyone else, but I just get the impression that she was making up reasons as she goes along.

Why Fenchurch? Rory is town.

Why do you think Rory is town? I think he's scummy. He's done very little, and what he has done has been super-defensive and with little-to-no scumhunting.

[Fenchurch]

btw, can anyone provide any sort of insight (read:meta) on whether joke-around-hoopla is scum-hoopla or town-hoopla? I'm very lazy and don't want to go through her games.

I wish I had a good read on her, but I don't. I've seen her joke as town and scum, sometimes for reactions, sometimes just for fun.
eg: Open 274 (town)
Ladies Night (scum)

We've also played Nomination Mafia together before, but it was a marathon game so I wouldn't expect her to play the same. She was scum; the town basically lynched itself to death.

I'm leaning town on her in this game, she seems to have put a lot of thought into some of her reads (#135, #202), she seems keen on applying pressure and reaction-testing, and everything she's said has seemed accurate... but that said, I'm not super-confident of my ability to recognise her as scum. Anyway, she plays well as town and mafia, and for that reason, I wouldn't want to lynch her yet.

[Fenchurch]

forest_air: You've asked why NS is lurking (apparently ignoring #153, where he says that by his standards, he isn't lurking). Why are YOU lurking?

Because I am ignorant and I completely forgot that you guys claimed, too. Whatever, I still don't see the point in claiming

this early

for anyone...

This statement implies that you

do

see a point in claiming later, and I think this is why Amrun said it seems like you don't understand the game.

I see you're fairly new to this site, what is your mafia experience besides? Are you keeping up with this game? Please can you provide some reads, based on gut or otherwise. Who are your top 3 picks for scum right now?

And as for what Amrun quote...

Not sure if forest understands the set up even remotely, which is probably a towntell.

I'd say it's null. Why do say it's a towntell, Amrun?

[Fenchurch]

I'm having serious problems with the bolded statements. I have stated quite clearly that Amrum wasn't

cautious

at all to run headlong into PZ's opening. Scum generally are more cautious then town. Which means I have a read on Amrum. It's that easy but not anymore when you leave out the key adjective.

You're right, I didn't realise that it hinged on caution. In that case it makes more sense, although I don't agree with the read over all.

The about NS. I think you did this intentionally. I have actually repeated my stance on NS already, but twice apparently isn't good enough.

NS gets lynched. It's what he does. He is scummy in every game as either allignment. Voting him on page 5 with little commitment is cheap and easy and can be done by anybody. There is always a reason to votepark on NS. So either people commit and they go for a lynch (which people don't want to do at page 4 or 5), or they should find someone else to investigate.

Have you really never played with NS before?

No, I don't think I've properly played with NS before, but I get what people are saying: he has a tendency to seem scummy, regardless of alignment.

I still don't like your response to his wagon, for these reasons:

1. Acting like early wagons aren't serious wagons weakens the reactions and information gained from them. And sometimes an early lynch is the correct one; and it's the threat that we might go through with it which keeps it useful.
2. It seems like you are trying to appear pro-town via the mantra 'early quicklynches are bad', whilst at the same time trying to keep NS viable as a later mislynch, by reiterating that he is null/scummy/reaching.
3. From the way you describe it, I don't see how it is any less "cheap and easy" to vote for NS later in the game. I get the impression from this that you are not especially interested in trying to read his alignment between now and then, just that you would be willing to lynch him because

that is what always happens

.

Essentially, it seems like your you were (perhaps unwittingly) acting to slow the game, and to quash information rather than to generate it, which isn't what I'd expect from town.

[Fenchurch]

malpascp, Zito: what are your thoughts on Rory?

[Fenchurch]

I need to do a hefty re-read with note-taking. I'm following, but I'm conflicted on a lot of my reads, and it's hard to keep sight of the big picture.

UNVOTE:

I like the points raised by both Amrun and CES in their last two posts.

CES, between #306 and #315 you flip your read on Rory. What prompted this?

[Fenchurch]

malpascp: in #353 you gave a list of reads and implied that you would be back later to answer any "whys". A few people have asked you questions since, but you've yet to expand on any of your reasoning. Could you do this now?

[Fenchurch]

btw Fenchurch, what reads are you actually conflicted about and why?

Well, my vote was on Rory, but then I felt that Rory was making a good case on you. And CES's on Amrun, and Amrun's on Copper.

I'm sorry, I'm still trying to put all my thoughts in order. I'd like to weigh everything up against each other before reaching a conclusion, and there are a number of people who I have trouble holding onto reads on.

I need to do a hefty re-read with note-taking.

I'm following, but I'm conflicted on a lot of my reads, and it's hard to keep sight of the big picture.

UNVOTE:

I like the points raised by both Amrun and CES in their last two posts.

CES, between #306 and #315 you flip your read on Rory. What prompted this?

this post makes me worry about you. You are the kind of person who would kill people at night. I really expected less lurking from you. The bolded is odd and scummy.

Why so? I've observed enough towns get carried away tunnelling on other townies, whilst giving scum a free ride that I try to avoid doing that myself. Without stepping back every now and then, it can be easy to get taken in by the players who draw attention to themselves and ignore those who don't.

The problem is, this game moves faster, and has more players, than I'm used to.

Here is a summary off the top of my head:
Hoopla - town but she's good
Copper - town but he posts way too little and has multiple heads to vet his posts
Vitamin - no clue, hasn't made an impression on me
zMuff - seems scummy but I'd like to check meta
forest/malpa - no read, no content
NS/CES - I see it as a slight scumtell that NS replaced out, if it's true he doesn't like playing scum. no read on CES
Twisted - no read, nothing stands out
Amrun - seems scummy but I'd like to refer back, and she's a bit close to lynch
Zito - no clue, hasn't made an impression since the start
Rory - mixed feelings, initially scummy but now I'm not sure.

There's so many "not sure"s that I'd like to feel more sure on before laying down my opinions as fact. And I had to look at the playerlist to make sure I got everyone. Is that normal?

tl;dr

- I just suck at games that are bigger than 7 players.

[Fenchurch]

and mykonian is a rory the roman head, not copper

You seem to be muddled up fenchurch

I didn't mention myko did I? My comment about Copper is that it sounds like he has at least three heads, they appear to be strong players and have a policy of thoroughly proofreading their posts, so if they are scum it seems it'd be difficult to find a slip.

You're right that I got the replacements muddled though. In that case I'd be more inclined to lynch malpa than CES.

Hmm, I'm willing to back that up.

VOTE: malpascp

[Fenchurch]

Oh yeah

[Fenchurch]

I find Amrun's switch from NS to Vitamin seems somewhat contrived as well, in #163

I want to state for the record that NS is NOT lurking this game.

And that alone is enough for me to switch to ...

Vote: Vitamin R

If NS was not lurking (by his meta), surely he was not lurking when she made her vote, either? Why should that be a reason to prompt a change?
______

I also feel that this quote:

Hoopla, not sure why asking Vitamin a question is "finding a scumtell."

is worded to make Hoopla's accusation sound less legitimate than it is. Of course asking a question =/= finding a scumtell. CES has now gone through what was meant, but it seemed like it was clear to begin with, and Amrun was dodging the question.

However, I'm surprised at her persistent following of Hoopla's votes, since VCA is quite common, and I would imagine a scum player would try and avoid looking like they were sheeping. From her previous games, Amrun has played some very good games as scum, but also a couple of bad ones. So I'm not sure what to make of this.

I'd say I'm not opposed to lynching Amrun, on the basis of her play in as a whole in this game.

But I'd still like to hear from malpascp.

[Fenchurch]

Which were my bad scum games - out of curiosity?

Well, I don't know if bad is the right word, but you drew a lot more attention in Mini 1120 and Mini 1141.

I couldn't tell if you've ever vote-sheeped before though, since I'd have to go through the whole game and note every single vote down, and I don't have the time for that.

[Fenchurch]

rather than just seeing what is there and THEN reaching a conclusion.

No, I don't have time to do this. I'd have to read every game, and even then I don't expect I'd know for sure - eg, I've already played six or so games with Hoopla, but I still can't claim to read her with any real confidence. I've looked at your town games in Speed Mafia and Pick Your Power, but I can't claim to have gleaned anything useful.

I mainly wanted to see what kind of experience you'd had. And yes, for the most part your play has been remarkably good, and you don't get lynched often.

And the only vote I have made in this game that can be construed as sheeping is the PZ vote, but ask yourself if I would do something that could be construed that way as scum. Calling all of my votes sheeps is a large amount of misrep.

Here's a votechart of the game.



Your votes on NS, Vitamin, and PZ all seem to be sheeping Hoopla. I don't know what to make of it, but I wouldn't say it's a misrep.

[Fenchurch]

I agree that Amrun has responded well, her answers have seemed sound, although that doesn't fully excuse her earlier scummy behaviour.

I do think malpa would be a good lynch though. He's been posting in his other games more than here. I'd rather not go into a Day 2 with no knowledge about him, or comments from him on the game today.

I don't like Papa Zito either. Sure he's promised to re-read, but that was about a week ago. He's provided nothing for a while now.

[Fenchurch]

Equinox: please can you prod Zito and malpascp, if you haven't already?

With deadline is approaching, I'll
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Amrun

She seemed scummy to me for most of Day 1, I think both her actions and the reactions to her wagon put her at a fair chance of being scum, and I don't want to miss the chance to get her flip.

However, the deadline rules are such that if if we don't form majority we will have a plurality lynch, so it's likely that we'll have an Amrun lynch anyway.

[Fenchurch]

And it also makes me wonder why people are criticising PZ for 'lurking' and not you. Like, yeah, you have your reasons, but you're still doing the same thing.

Is she doing the same thing? Despite her V/LA, Amrun has actually been posting fairly regularly and often, PZ on the other hand is totally absent at the moment, and has posted very little. In the past week Amrun has made about 30 posts, PZ has made 9.

Why does the difficulty of her lynch give you second thoughts though?

[Fenchurch]

Exactly, that's why I'm surprised it's prompted zMuff to remove his vote...

[Fenchurch]

Mm, I talked myself out of hammering Fritlzer (scum) at deadline in Open 274 due to lack of likely partners. I now think it's too unreliable to look at ties, especially before a flip, and prefer to lynch based on individual scumminess.

[Fenchurch]

I think malpascp is town.

[Fenchurch]

Vote: Papa Zito

A marginally more viable wagon.

Is this prompted by anything in his last post? If not, then what?

[Fenchurch]

Waiting for the day to end so we can begin the game. Amrun lynch is still fine with me - offered a compromise, people seem content just letting Amrun getting deadline-lynched. Whatevs. Same result.

those are shitty way's to end a day. Can't have that. Esspecially when I think the lynched is just townie acting like a punching bag.

vote zito

Rory, before Hoopla pointed out that Amrun is on target to be deadline lynched, were you aware this was the case?

I'm also a bit annoyed that maldfkja;ldk called me a "policy lynch," even beyond the hypocrisy inherent. Upon second reading, this implies that he knows I am town.

I no longer think malpa is likely scum because he dropped a towntell - his accusation of "coaching" between CES and VitR implies that he doesn't realise the scum have daytalk. And it's seems plausible considering he doesn't seem to have read the game very thoroughly. What do you think of this?

I'm doing my best to make connections with everyone in some way or another for my eventual flip. It's in your best interest to let me unless you're scum.

...

Why would we you want to make connections to everyone if you're town? Surely connections are only necessary if you're scum?

Everyone state your preference between a zito and malshhja lynch.

Amrun, if you were town, I'd expect you to choose who you most think is scum out of Zito and malpascp, and explain to us why. Not ask us who we'd prefer to lynch.

At present, I'd much rather see an Amrun lynch than a Zito or a malpa one. And Rory is coming off like a buddy making a last-ditch attempt to switch the lynch, but then it seems unlikely that anybody would be that blatant about it.

[Fenchurch]

malpascp, do you feel you have now "analyzed the game properly"?

The game has 11 players.
Papa Zito is not voting Amrun, he's voting you.
You describe the Amrun lynch as a policy-lynch. What policy would that be?

[Fenchurch]

I still think you're probably town, but I don't think you're following the game that well. I don't think PZ is a bad lynch option, but I don't see as strong a case against him as Amrun, and anyhow, you haven't really presented any case since you say it's just a reaction-vote.

I disagree with your description of Amrun as a policy lynch. To me, Amrun has commited several possible scumslips, and her explanations have not seemed wholly adequate or from a town mindset.

[Fenchurch]

Of the nominations, my gut would have been to lynch zMuff. I thought he was pretty scummy already. I also think Hoopla is the least likely to get lynched, and for that reason I can imagine her nominating herself as scum. But her analysis of the nominations seems fairly thorough and thought-out. Would Hoopla-scum be so brazen as to put herself forward and then propose that the nomination list are all town? I can't tell.

CES is kinda in the middle. A few people have said they see him as town, but he hasn't done anything especially townie in my eyes.

I'm not sure who I want to vote on yet. And I want to look back through D1 again, hopefully I'll have time for that tomorrow; I'm out tonight.

[Fenchurch]

VitR: what was your initial reaction to the nomination list? Were you surprised at all?

[Fenchurch]

Okay, well in #460 I noticed that Vitamin names the exact nomination list as his townreads:

Hoopla, CES, and zMuffin are all town.

So I was thinking it could be a sign that he had a hand in the nomination, perhaps he thought that he was putting up the most pro-town looking players, or perhaps he didn't realise why; but then it's also possible that the scumteam simply saw this and it influenced them.

Anyway.

My feeling is that Hoopla is most likely to be scum out of this group. zMuff and CES are both likely lynches and deemed scummy by a lot of us, but (besides zMuff) pretty much everyone on D1 was naming Hoopla as town or saying they wouldn't lynch her. I think putting herself up, she could be fairly confident of not getting lynched, or of being able to talk herself out of it. Also she tends to take the lead as scum, and I can imagine her volunteering to go up. Lastly, she had quite a lot of commentary on the nominations, and was quick to name it as an "all town" group. If the other two are town, then she wins favour with them. I feel bad, but,

VOTE: Hoopla

[Fenchurch]

I'm not confident of my Fenchurch read any more.

What's prompted this? Do you have any comments on the points I raised in #699?

What was the meaning behind your reaction to CES in #686? Do you think he is more likely town because he is using a meta-defence?

[Fenchurch]

0/3 scum = 0% chance of lynching scum.
3/10 scum = 30% chance of lynching scum.

This doesn't explain at all why it would be better to lynch randomly from the 3 nominations. Surely it's better to either:
a) lynch the scummiest, since you can't be sure they are all town
b) lynch the least useful, in case they are all town

Did you reread Hoopla v. zMuff? What was your conclusion?

[Fenchurch]

That's not a reaction I'd expect from Hoop-scum... or Hoop-town. I'd still like to hear some kind of response.



UNVOTE:

CES: On D1 you didn't express any suspicion of Hoopla, and you even asked for her to take lead on the lynch. Then on D2 you voted her off the bat, saying that she was the more suspicious of the two. What makes her more suspicious to you?

[Fenchurch]

BTW:

I'm going camping for four days, tomorrow until Sunday 17th July, so I won't have any access then, sorry.

[Fenchurch]

there's utility in lynching me now to prevent a mislynch on an important day in the future.

This doesn't make any sense. Each day is as important as the next. A mislynch now saves us absolutely nothing. And if you are town, it breaks one of the golden rules.

So: why would you accept your lynch?

[Fenchurch]

Okay I'm back. Irrelevant of the nomination list, my biggest scummy-read is zMuffin.

VOTE: zMuffin

I don't mind going for one of the others if it's to get a lynch, but I'd be happiest lynching him. Hoopla's reasoning for why she would let herself be lynched seems townish to me, I don't really feel strongly on CES, but I do think zMuff is scum based on his play day 1: spending a lot of time pushing hard on two wagons that had no support. I think this is something scum like be inclined to do, because it makes them seem busy, and they can avoid taking flak for a mislynch, or for lurking. Although he did get on the Amrun wagon at the end, when it was coming down to the deadline, but he dithered when the Zito wagon was forming. If zMuff is scum, I think there is a good chance Zito is too, and that he was considering bussing at that point.

[Fenchurch]

Personally I can't see Hoopla doing this self-sacrificial gambit as scum. I'd rather lynch zMuff or CES. I don't see CES' meta-claim as on a par with Pooky's guarantee, since meta is more loose and open to interpretation. Has CES used his meta to back up an argument before? If not, he might not see it as a sacrifice (to his long-term win record) in the way that Hoopla does.

But I still zMuff as most scummy overall.

This seems to change often. It's late and my mind is far from clear, but I'm sure Fenchurch already was convinced a vote somewhere else was perfect. Not that I'm going to bother, Muff is a good lynch.

My opinion on Hoopla changed with her explanation in #738. She actually gave a sound answer for supporting her own lynch, and I can't see any reason for her to do that as scum.

That's a pretty half-hearted case. A lot of it doesn't even make any sense.

Please be more specific. Which bits don't make sense, zMuff?

Hoopla: zMuff made this comment on his own meta earlier. Do you see this as on a par with CES' defence, and if not, why not?

I'm not scum and I never play like this as scum. Whimsically aggressive muffin is town muffin.

[Fenchurch]

The fact that these are your only objections to my play D1 makes it seem like you're stretching. Also strikes me as odd that you made no mention of this D1. It looks like you're trying way too hard to justify your vote on me today.

Oh... actually you're right that I didn't mention it Day 1, but I did think it. Looking back, it's #359 where I said I was conflicted. It was because I had been voting Rory, but I thought Rory made a good point about you in #340.

I'm not entirely sure which two wagons you think I pushed D1 with little support (Hoopla is obviously one, but the other is...?) but you think I did this to make it seem like I was 'busy'? Really? So ignoring the fact that I was giving reads on everybody, commenting on everything I thought was relevant, etc, your complaint is that you think I was voting Hoopla (and some other mystery wagon) to make it seem like I was busy? And that I was doing this so I'd avoid taking flak for lurking???

1) Me and Hoopla.
2) Until Rory pointed it out, you did barely comment on anyone else.
3) Not just to avoid flak for lurking; to avoid being associated with the major wagon of the day (which I think scum are often afraid of) without appearing to be lurking.

That's either a misrep, or you clearly aren't reading. There was no PZ wagon forming when I unvoted Amrun (it was Amrun+Vitamin, that's it), and the main reason I revoted Amrun after unvoting her was because PZ was the only other viable wagon, and when it came to a choice between Amrun (who wasn't properly answering my questions) and PZ (who I didn't and still don't have a scum read on), the choice was obvious. Now, you might have a case for me voting Amrun to avoid a PZ lynch if you think both PZ and I are scum together, but that you think I was 'considering bussing' is just absurd.

It wasn't Amrun-Vitamin at that time. Although there was only one vote on PZ, several other players (Hoopla, Rory, Twisted, CES) had begun naming him as a viable alternative. Your unvote on Amrun seems unnatural, and I think it's likely it was contrived for another reason.

I also find it interesting that you're not committing to any reads today. Well, apart from your read on me. The rest of your posts today have been really wishy-washy.

Changing my mind isn't the same as not commiting to reads. I did think Hoopla was likely-scum, but since her volunteering for lynch I've been pretty clear I have town read on her. I've been consistent that I have a scumread on you. The only person I don't really have a read on is CES.

You're still voting Hoopla, but you've not commented on the posts where she said she would favour her own lynch rather than CES. Can you really see her doing this as scum?

Not any more!!

Why not?

[Fenchurch]

So... then... why bring it up?

Huh? Because it's scummy.

uh, it's nothing to do with you changing your mind on Hoopla, it's more the fact that you've failed to actually call any of the candidates a town read, including Hoopla, who you've gone from "probably scum" to "that was unlikely to come from hoopla-scum or hoopla-town" to "I don't think she'd do that as scum".

Yes, that was my progression, as more information became available. In #769 I used the words "Hoopla's reasoning . . . seems townish", which was meant to indicate that I think she is town.

I hate this sort of WIFOM anyway. I could see her doing it as scum for the same reasons you think she wouldn't do it as scum... It makes her look town, right?

No. There are certain actions that I think Hoopla would be very unlikely to take as scum, since the risk is so much higher than the potential gain. Her explanation for why she would prefer her lynch to CES' was sound, which gives her a very real increased risk in being lynched in this scenario - as several people have been suggesting a utility lynch, I don't think she could reliably count on the town response being in her favour.

The only way I can imagine it being of benefit to Hoopla-scum is if she and CES are buddies, and she sees herself as having less long-term survival than CES, and thinks they can benefit from the WIFOM that they wouldn't both be on the nomination list. But even that isn't sensible play, because when she flipped scum, it would cast a new light on the nomination list.

By far the most likely explanation to me is that she is town.

[Fenchurch]

2 days is short? How often do you think you should post, malpa?

You and zMuffin can say 'WIFOM' all you like, but there are likely scenarios and there are unlikely scenarios. Each possibility is not equal to the others.

For the record, here are my suppositions on Hoopla's meta:
- when town, Hoopla tends to assume that scum will play a sensible game, maximising their chance of a win
- Hoopla tends to play that style of scum game herself

[Fenchurch]

What I mean is: I'm all for invoking 'WIFOM' if there's a situation where you simply can't tell what scum-play is most likely out of the possibilities.

I don't think this is one of those times.

[Fenchurch]

Oh.. I make VCA charts regardless of alignment, or at least, I still did it in my last game, when I was scum. If I only did it as town it would be too big of a meta-tell. But despite that, I do want to know why people are reading me scummy now.

[Fenchurch]

But eh, why fenchurch isn't town? Adding little to discussion, not coming out of a troublesome early game with great and sharp reads. It's what you expect from someone who hangs back at the start as town, to make some amazing post halfway day one which catches some point made in early game which means something. But we are still waiting for Fenchurch her great post, and she is certainly able to make that as town in a game like this.

...I've been trying

And I'd say I've provided at least as much insight as CES, VitR, and malpa.

I'd be willing to lynch CES, to be honest. He's been unusually quiet since the votes swung towards the other two. And I'd rather see him lynched than Hoopla.

[Fenchurch]

I think Zito is spot on about malpa, by the way, and this reads almost like an admission of guilt:

Wow, seems like PZ knows what scumhunting is after all.

If malpa were town, then he would have been a great shield for scum to use to protect themselves on the nomination list. I think the reason he didn't appear is because he'd have been a certain lynch.

malpa: why are you so sure zMuff is town? And that CES is scum? When you prefer to post once every two days, why do you complain that the game is stalling? And you suggested meta-analysis on Hoopla, are you still planning to do this?

[Fenchurch]

Currently, it looks like Hoopla is set to be lynched by deadline rules of plurality lynch. To me, she is still by far the most town.

Would anyone for whom she is not their favourite be willing to switch so we could get a majority on one of the others? I will move to CES if necessary. I assume I could count on Copper and malpa. Anyone else?

Hoopla: if you do get deadlined, what are your reads? Who would you like to see lynched tomorrow?

[Fenchurch]

preview edit:

Wifom

only exists in cases where there is a disparity in the expected value of each value. Otherwise it's

random

.

Random

holds no information.

Wifom

does.

Not sure what your point is here Rory. Nothing that happens in the game is random, everything is based on a decision someone has made. Therefore anything can be analysed, to greater or lesser degrees.

@Fenchurch: Your second paragraph is what I call WIFOM. I hope not being wrong.

The concept of WIFOM doesn't invalidate an argument about how scum would play. There are some ways that are more likely than others, and part of the game is considering them, and working out which best fits our situation.

I think there's a good chance that scum would have made use of you on the nomination list if you were town. The fact that you weren't chosen increases the chances of you being scum.

I have a feeling that PZ is pushing a mislynch in malpa

Hm. Why do you say it's a mislynch, Twisted?

[Fenchurch]

Well, I would prefer zMuff.

VitaminR: What stops you from switching? You could be the decider here. What do you see as the arguments either way?

[Fenchurch]

Because I have a gut feeling that malp may be town. All of his play, even from NS suspecting copper from the start, has seemed too original and odd to be scum. PZ reads as a dark horse possible mafioso to me, along with Roman

Eh, I think Zito's points on malpa made sense, especially the final one. malpa has done basically nothing to engage with the lynch, he's provided no reasoning or persuasive arguments, despite now implying that he has strong reads. It seems a lot like it makes no difference to him.

[Fenchurch]

FFS. VitR is almost certain scum. He's following the game enough to immediately see that he's being prodded, yet only comments the bare minimum on the current situation, and is totally vague and non-commital.

I have to go to bed, I can't stick around until deadline. I'm not sure where is the best place for my vote.

[Fenchurch]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: CES

[Fenchurch]

What? I read the game actively. I just didn't have anything to add. Then I posted when I got prodded to show that I was there. I was not vague and non-committal. I indicated that I could go for a zMuffin lynch also. The "I guess" was just because I wasn't particularly excited about either lynch.

a) It was totally non-commital. With four hours to deadline, you needed to be more clear whether you were going to switch or not, what factors were affecting your decision. A one-liner doesn't cut it. Saying "I could switch" but then not doing so, and not answering my question just left me hanging.
b) I asked you to expand on your comment, but you wait until after the deadline to do so.

SCUM

VOTE: VitaminR

Copper, Zito: Why did you not switch to CES after saying that you would? With a 4:3:3 split, he could have been lynched.

[Fenchurch]

he's an easy lynch. I find some of his nonsense too bizzare to be scum, who have the most to lose.

Scum try to fit in. Malp most certainly doesn't

The first bit is true. But the rest, how much of this do you think stems from his english-as-a-second-language? And how can you tell that he's not doing his best to fit in?

I scanned malpa's meta a while back. I'll try and do a summary. It's hard because he's flaked from a lot of games - eg. 7 out of the 10 I clicked on. Here's a selection:
Newbie 858 - Mafia Goon
Open 309 - Townie
Open 192 - Town Daymason
Mini 895 - Town Vig (flaked)
Mafia 107 - Mafia Doctor (flaked)

He was at his most active and lucid in Open 309 (Fire and Ice) when he was a Townie and survived until endgame. In Newbie 858 as Mafia, he caught heat for trying to get a hammer on an inactive, and general scummy play, and got lynched Day 1. It's possible that he tends to draw suspicion as scum.

malpa isn't my top pick for scum, VitR is. But I don't think you can be sure it is scapegoating without knowing his alignment. And just because someone plays scum badly, doesn't mean they're not scum.

[Fenchurch]

he suspected copper from the outset. Not particularly wise for scum since there was no case on copper and it would have made no sense for scum to get an enemy so early

This doesn't take into account the fact that he gave no good reason for suspecting Copper, which a) means people are less likely to take it seriously and/or take offence, and b) is scummy - why couldn't he think of a reason?

^Scum, with or without Zito.

No, I actually didn't read it.

are both things I'd expect town to say too

the first quote because scum wouldn't want to make 2 enemies so early. Town have nothing to be afraid of so are fine with accusations like this

I disagree about the first quote, as I don't think accusing players has the effect of "making enemies". I've even seen some players be accused and say "You're wrong to accuse me, but I actually think you're town for it". I think scum also feel a need to make accusations, because otherwise they'll get accused of lurking.

I agree that the second one could be a minor town-tell, but I don't think it's strong enough for me to feel confident on NS/malpa. And I think the rest of your points on malpa all seem to be along the lines of "too scummy to be scum".

Arg I've had this post open for hours and have only just gotten a chance to finish it. Been busy at work and now I'm going camping for the weekend. Will be back on Sunday!

Here's my read summary, fwiw.

TOWN

Twisted
Copper
CES
Papa Zito
Rory
zMuff
malpa
VitR

SCUMMY

[Fenchurch]

I don't know. I don't see CES as such a controversial vote - I'm not fully sold on Hoopla's assessment myself. But it's a different move to malpa's previous scum game, where he wagoned shamelessly.

And "too scummy to be scum" was the wrong way for me to put it just now. What I mean more is, you're assuming that malpa-scum would be trying hard to not draw attention to himself, but I think
a) he is doing that partly here, by his relative lack of posting, and
b) he may not be so aware which actions would or wouldn't draw attention.

[Fenchurch]

talk about your PZ read. Vitamin's case on PZ town was at best unconvincing gut and at worst zilch. This is your chance to explain why PZ is town

He hasn't done anything I've found scummy, and I thought he hit the mark with his post about malpa. I don't have much more than that.

[Fenchurch]

Also, Feeeenchurch, where are you?

I was camping. See V/LA notes in the votecount.

I've been looking back at Day 2 just now. Unanswered questions...

Copper + Papa Zito: What stopped you from changing votes at the end of Day 2 to lynch CES after you said you would?

Twisted: I'm kind of surprised to see your switch in #797. Prior to that you'd said that you thought Hoopla provided more content than the others, and you seemed reluctant to buy the meta-argument on CES. You also noted that scum would probably want to see Hoopla go the most. So what caused the about-turn to a Hoopla vote? (And presumably, for you to stick with her lynch.

Do you guys think that if PZ flips town, that means VitaminR is also town? I wouldn't mind lynching PZ if that lead us to a VitaminR lynch tomorrow.

I think VitR is scum either way. And I want to lynch VitR a lot more than PZ. I think the bus is unlikely, to be honest.

I'd say the likely buddies for VitaminR are: Rory, zMuffin
Less likely but possible: Twistedspoon, malpascp

[Fenchurch]

Spoiler: Votecharts to date

(mix in filehosting since photobucket was making the first image smaller than the others)

[Fenchurch]

I'm annoyed that you find me scummier than PZ but each to their own I suppose

Not based on your play alone, but based on the links to VitR and some of the votes, I'm not going to rule it out as a possibility.

As far as I can tell, your case on PZ hinges on him voting other players who you find town. I've said why I disagree with your read on NS/malpa, and CES; as for the votes on dead players, Zito isn't the only one who was on both Amrun's and Hoopla's lynch. I also think scum might be more inclined to want to stay off the mislynches, since they'd know what the flip would be. But I haven't done stats so I can't say if that's true or not.

I do think his low activity and vote parking could be scum-tells, but I guess it could also be low interest in the game. And I wonder if this is what happened to Hoopla at the end of Day 2, since she didn't post any final thoughts before the deadline.

[Fenchurch]

Fenchurch, what are your conclusions from that vote chart thing?

No conclusions besides any I've already said - it's there as reference, not analysis. I do it because I find it helpful, and I share it because other people might find it helpful too.

Zito: please can you answer my question from #961?
______________

Fenchurch, please outline why you think I'm scum.

Overall, it's gut, based on your play as a whole.
Specifics: early lack of votes and reads
lynching Hoopla for weak reasoning in my opinion. confusion surrounding deadline
fallback to meta-defence

Some additional examples from looking back just now:
* in #255 your conclusion on forest_air doesn't seem to make sense. forest said something which sounded like she didn't understand the set-up, but because she then claimed she did understand the set-up (but without clarifying her early point) you took it as a null tell.
* anticipation for being called out for buddying in #492
* in #701 that you claimed to be "freaked out" by the nomination list matching your townreads, but you didn't comment on it until I asked. The response seems un-genuine. I think it's possible that you had a hand in the nominations, and unwittingly chose the players that seemed most town to you.

Really it's a lack of anything especially pro-town... your actions and comments seem "off" and don't seem to make sense or come from a townie viewpoint.
______________

When did I say that?

In post #427

I still suspect about CES,

despite the replacement town-tell, in wich I usualy rellie on.

[Fenchurch]

Ach, busy couple of days. Still here. Proper post tomorrow.

[Fenchurch]

He posted it in this game too.

oh, and I'm warning you in advance that I'mV/LA from monday until the 12th. (first week is no access, the second limited access)
If a force-replacement is necessary then I won't complain since there is little I can do to prevent my

time in the youth offenders camp

holiday and It may become rather tight access

August 12? (Equinox)

CES: what's the reason behind your switch from VitaminR to Zito?

My issue with Twisted's case on Zito is this; he seems to use the same reason to clear malpa and condemn Zito: their votes for "innocents". If malpa-scum wouldn't want to draw attention, then why wouldn't Zito-scum be concerned about the same thing?

[Fenchurch]

I don't get it either. Your argument is that Zito is scum, because malpa is town; and malpa is town, because Zito is scum. Why are you insisting on circular logic, Rory?

[Fenchurch]

Oh wow, scum alert. Maybe I was too quick to declare you a townie. I feel like tou are being purposefully dim here. Malp and PZ clearly have very different experience levels that make a massive difference in terms of how their actions should be interpreted.

If anything, I'd expect that to have the opposite effect then. I think experienced scum would have a better idea of how not to draw attention, whereas newb-scum are more likely to be a loose cannon.

[Fenchurch]

Question to anyone who wants to give an answer to this, and the answer will probably vary based on who you suspect, but: Why do you think Amrun's wagon stalled at L-2 for ages on D1?

I think because all or some of the scumteam were afraid to join what they knew would be a mislynch.

I still think VitR is scum. He declared a town-read on Amrun fairly early Day 1 (#264, #369) and probably found it hard to turn around on that when she became the leading wagon at the end of Day 1, especially since he was a suspect himself earlier in the Day, and would have probably come under more scrutiny for a switch.

[Fenchurch]

Glad you've still got some access Twistedspoon. Yeah we've only got about 4 active players right now I think.

I just feel pretty null on Zito, whereas I'm more sure on VitR. Rory commented that Vitamin's defence seemed genuine, but I think defence is the easiest thing to fake as scum, because even townies don't want to get mislynched. I'll try and look back on PZ sometime though.

I'm away tomorrow, back Sunday. Last weekend trip for a while, I hope.

[Fenchurch]

If there were scum on the wagon then I'd guess it's Zito, zMuff, or both. I couldn't say strongly. Rory's point about Zito's voteparking does sense. But I think zMuff's play has been scummy too. And I don't really like how a lot of people said they would lynch him yesterday, and then failed to follow through.

zMuff, what is your own answer to your question?

Question to anyone who wants to give an answer to this, and the answer will probably vary based on who you suspect, but: Why do you think Amrun's wagon stalled at L-2 for ages on D1?

[Fenchurch]

Well, I'm in agreement with you on option 3. This is what I think is most likely too. This is another reason why I think VitR is scum, his play fits with that theory.

But Twisted asked me, if there were scum on the wagon, then who; so I answered that question.

And your suggestion that I've done nothing but "continually insist you're scum without adding new information", is way overstated. I haven't been targetting you much today, my focus has been on VitR. And in that very last post I did add a new piece of information: the promises of votes on you that failed to materialise at the end of Day 2.

[Fenchurch]

Fenchurch is my scum #2, so would be up for lynching her as well. Her reasons for thinking I'm scum are flimsy and constantly changing. She seems like a player who is hard to read as scum, because she's consistent and reasonable, but I don't think her attack on me is sincere. I don't buy that she wouldn't have doubts, considering my somewhat erratic and heavily gut-based play today. She's just been dispassionately and quite reasonably saying that she thinks I'm scum. Doesn't ring true to me.

a) What? You say I'm "flimsy and constantly changing", yet also "consistent and reasonable". As far as I know, I haven't been flimsy or changing in my reasoning against you at all.
b) It's not based so much on your play today. As I said, I think that it can be easiest for scum to "fake it" when they're under attack. On Day 1, you suggested yourself that it is useful to see how suspects act when not under pressure.
c) Of course I have doubts, I never feel certain who is scum until they get lynched. But I still feel more sure on you, for the reasons that I've given. However, it seems that no one agrees with me on that.

basically I think Vitamin is townier than Fenchurch. That's all. If hoopla found fenchurch suspicion, then I sure can

I think you could be wrong about Vit. And agh, Hoopla never even said why she was suspicious of me; and she's mislynched me before.

But I'm not opposed to the Zito wagon, I don't think he's a bad lynch. Some of the points seemed unsound to me, and I wanted to hear people explain them fully. But ultimately I agree about the voteparking and his frequent lurking, and I think there is a good chance he is scum.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Papa Zito

[Fenchurch]

Hahaha wow.

Well I still think Twisted is town. zMuff or CES/Quilford seem more plausible candidates for a Zito-buddy. CES voted him early, but due to his V/LA he wasn't a driving force behind this lynch like he has been for others. I like Quilford's entry to the game.

zMuff cited Zito as town early in the game, which migrated to a scum read throughout D3, yet he never got as far a placing a vote. zMuff is probably the most likely partner out of these.

But given that CES and zMuff were on the list last time, and that they've been put up with obv-town Twisted, it does seem likely that they're all town.

I think I was wrong about Vitamin, I doubt he's scum given the way that he led two wagons on PZ.
Which leaves Rory, BBmolla and malpa.
Rory - he's been throwing a lot of accusations around, which could make sense in a game where scum have to get the majority of the town lynched. eg. yesterday he said that because PZ was voteparking on malpa, malpa was town, but today he's saying that malpa is scum.
BBmolla - Copper presence was minimal and BBmolla came in at the right moment to bus. His iso-notes on some players (eg. malpa, me) seem un-genuine.
malpa - stuck with his Vitamin vote and basically ignored the Zito wagon until right at the end of the Day. If they're buddies then Zito was trying to bus malpa pretty hard, but I find that plausible since malpa is playing pretty scummy.

VOTE: zMuffin

[Fenchurch]

Fenchurch says we are throwing a lot of accusations around. I think that's odd. We wanted PZ lynched. We agree on molla scum, and we disagree on the third. One head says malpa. Other head says Fenchurch.

Apologies... I guess you're right in that it's me not reading - I forget you're a hydra, and got into a habit of looking at posts as if they were from a single person, except where you point it out specifically. It makes sense now because of your internal disagreement, but with 6 other players left in the game and you taking turns to accuse 4, it does seem like you're trying to spread suspicion.

fenchurch her last move from Zmuff (in favour of who's lynch she argued very much) to CES which practically hammered Hoopla

Unless I'm misreading this, are you saying my final vote-change resulted in Hoopla's lynch? If so that's a proper misrep, that was just 3 hours before deadline, the zMuffin wagon wasn't taking off, and both Zito and Copper said they would move to CES.

I'm still torn between Rory and malpa, who I think are scummy for the things they've said, and BBmolla/Copper, who I think is scummy for the things he hasn't said. And I've been out every evening this week and haven't been able to do a proper re-read in light of Zito's flip. Maybe I should replace out, I think maybe I'm too busy these days for forum mafia, but there's been so many replacements and that puts more pressure on the mod and somebody new to join the game. At least I have been following the game, I just haven't been able to do the digging that I want to. Sorry.

[Fenchurch]

Otherwise agree with Quilford that Fenchurch declaring me town for being on a few PZ wagons is odd. I totally bus as scum.

Eh it's not that I don't think you would bus, but the way you did it that didn't seem like a bus to me. I don't think you'd be first on the wagon at both opportunities, especially from what people have said about your playstyle. But I don't know.

And screw it...

VOTE: malpa

I didn't like the way he hammered zMuffin, and I think he's been pretty obv-scum all game. I think Zito could have easily been bussing him, because the arguments against him were obvious.

It's not that his reasoning about hammering/not hammering an inactive player was incorrect (both are true, it's incredibly sucky expecting someone to catch up on a game when we're planning to lynch them either way, but then, having an extra opinion could be helpful for the town). It's the way he made a decision, then instantly changed his mind at the prompt from Rory.

[Fenchurch]

Also, Malp is an easy target for this goal. Fen doesn't even cite much reasoning except "he's been pretty obv-scum all game." Also, this leads me to conclude that Malp is probably town.

Let's get this clear, malpa isn't just an "easy target". I'm voting him because he's scum. His play matches his mafia-game way more than his town-game. Even despite misunderstandings, he normally shows much more inquisitiveness and investment in the game than he has here. He's done no scumhunting and has joined whoever the most popular wagon is every day - besides his vote on CES, which I really don't think is a towntell. Everyone is just giving him a lot of leeway because of the language difference.

And Zito's vote on malpa reads strongly like a bus to me.

I'm not willing to hammer BB so soon. I think him and Copper have been much less scummy as malpa or Rory.

[Fenchurch]

Quilford, why do you think I'm scum? I feel I've addressed every point that's been raised against me. I can't help the fact that I wasn't convinced as quickly by the case on Zito as other people were. Do you disagree with the questions I was asking at the time?

[Fenchurch]

Did fenchurch not see his townslip?

The jumble over mislynches/nightkills? Yeah I don't consider it a townslip.

I've seen players like malpa turn out to be scum before, despite commiting towntells due to their supposed confusion, eg. Kristoph_ in Newbie 903.

and throughout Fenchurch's ISO I can see more of a case on PZ than anyone else and yet her first vote for him was day before yesterday

What are you saying here, that in my iso I made more of a case on PZ than anyone else, yet didn't vote him? Where did I make a case on PZ? At the end of Day 1 I thought he was a bit scummy but then I thought his contributions Day 2 were okay. He certainly wasn't the main person I've made a case on, are you ignoring Amrun, malpa, Rory, zMuffin, Vitamin?

I didn't know PZ was gonna flip scum, the main scumtell he committed was lurking and voteparking. Maybe I should've picked up on those earlier but I felt there were other players more scummy than him.

[Fenchurch]

Well, fuck.

[Fenchurch]

I'm gonna share the scum quicktopic. (If anyone else doesn't want it shared then we'll have to ask Equinox to delete it out of this post.)

http://www.quicktopic.com/46/H/rni3beLKSetkn

I've just got home and it's late... I'll come back and post more comments on the game tomorrow or the day after.

[Fenchurch]

Well I don't know, I'll definitely have a break for a bit though, and if I do play again I will move back to smaller games for sure. Large games are good but they require way too much consistent involvement. I will be playing skype mafia though, so any and all of you should come and join me there

I did really enjoy playing with everyone in this game, and wished I didn't have to be on the opposing side of so many of you. On Day 3, I felt especially bad about building BS cases on VitaminR, who became more and more likeable, although he won that round with his incredibly determined in his defence.

Twisted, hope you don't take comments from the scumtopic personally, I said that when assessing your potential as a mislynch. BTW, the reason you seemed so townie (to me) was just because you were so involved with the game, you had by far the highest postcount, and you seemed very open and honest. It was difficult to compete with!

You say that the crucial moment for me in the Zito lynch was when you gave me the ultimatum to vote and I responded with a vote, but I think it came before then. By that point, I was "damned if I do, damned if I don't"; even if I hadn't voted, I'd have looked very scummy for the refusal.

I'm glad Rory thinks the same as I do on the nomination choices. I think our downfall mostly lay in not being townie enough, and I don't think we could have changed that using the nomination choices on later days. If we'd put any or all of us up on the second nomination list, I don't think it would have changed the impact of Zito's lynch, and the rest of us getting lynched shortly afterwards. We might have held out another day, but ultimately we'd have been faced trying to get a mislynch in lylo with Twisted and CES. Unless putting ourselves on a nomination list could have reversed Twisted's read on CES? But I feel our failure for that part of the game was in not bussing harder, and not managing to look townie enough.

The exception is the first nomination list, which definitely was a deciding factor in how a number of players were viewed, particularly the big mistake on CES, which I was totally unprepared for, and led to a few people - critically Twistedspoon - believing he was town.

Hoopla, what led to your switch on me on Day 2? I felt in Day 2 that I'd finally managed to start getting into the game and stop lurking so much. You said in the deadtopic that you missed a chance to post before the deadline. What would you have said if you had.

Anyway... you'll see that Copper wanted to put themself up on that list and then declare the whole list town. I was worried that he wouldn't be able to get away with this, partly since he had posted relatively little and I was worried he might still get lynched, despite him having gathered a few townreads; but mainly because I didn't think anyone would accept that kind of analysis coming from someone who was on the nomination list. So of course, I was incredibly frustrated when Hoopla/CES/zMuffin somehow got away with exactly that!

So yeah. I should have trusted Copper there; if we'd put Copper up and taken CES off the list, maybe the game would have turned out differently. But, this is a setup which rewards the town for looking townie and developing townreads on each other, and I do think that is the reason the town won; and because they succeeded in identifying us. Congrats to all of you.