Mini 1198 - Marketplace Mafia - Game Over

[Ghostlin]

/confirm

[Ghostlin]

NK IS MINE MUHAHAHA

really who the heck is bidding for setup information?

You may be kidding about this, but the most common folks after NK will be in fact mafia. So this makes me kinda churn, even in no votes on NKx1 yet.

vote: malpascp

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: votes=bids. I know frankly I'm not interested in NKX1.

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: votes=bids. I know frankly I'm not interested in NKX1.

[Ghostlin]

Yeah, me asking questions to better understand the roles, that's so scummy. If I was scum, I'd probably just be discussing the roles with my buddies in QT.

Speaking of which, while scum will have more cash, there's likely only 3 of them. So lets assume 9v3 (allowing for a 3rd party of some kind). They'd have to have x3 the money we have, which is possible, but they'd have to go crazy with it.

I agree that somebody should throw down a 99 bid on the NK, just to make them bid more.

Also, while I like the already proposed questions for the Set up Knowledge, the one that I want everybody to ask is "Are there more than two different win conditions amongst the PMs?" Then we can fuck around with the money questions.

I agree with this, and am kicking around an idea: I'm thinking, for the sake of knowing exactly who has it, that any protown player that ends up with NKx1 should claim it so we can dictate how it should be used (sort of like a second lynch). If no one comes forward, it'd be safer to say scum snapped it up. If the person who gets it doesn't follow our instructions, the idea that they might be scum would be

more likely

.

I'm not sure that would work, however.

[Ghostlin]

Scum could buy it and play along if they didn't think they would be forced to target one of their own...

That's the problem with it. I didn't say it was perfect, just an option.

[Ghostlin]

Apologies for the triple post, but you'd all best get used to it.

NK isn't the only ability that should be claimed

Night Kill
Governor
Investigation Immunity
Extra Vote
Vote Nullifier

these should all be claimed, as they are stronger in the hands of an unknown scum than in the hands of an unknown town.
The rest, should stay hush hush.

Totally open for discussion.

Agree with the first three. The last two I'm queasy about incase scum do get the NK and don't claim, we could be making it easier for scum to kill off abilites that could be useful, particularly if muitiple use.

[Ghostlin]

Vote: Seacore

In this game, nominations is mafia stuff.

I'd rather like everyone to give their guesses about the setup, especially the existence of a SK.

This is a horrid post with horrible reasoning for a non-RVS vote. I don't think it's horrid for anyone to make a suggestion of a particular person to raise the price of NK.

As for the breaking news: talk about a miscarrage in the capitalist system for you. It seems someone has an ability that allows them to rob from the marketplace, and I think that person is probably not town, unless someone wants to step forward and claim it.

[Ghostlin]

Ah, you're talking about claiming on bidding, I'm talking about claiming outcome. Slight but important difference.
The problem is, we don't want the scum to know who has won Cop or Doc.
There's no problem with nobody bidding, because we can see that.
Everybody increasing their bids slowly and competing with each other is a risk. That's why I suggest that people make single large bids, instead of competing.

I'm going to try something risky.
I'm the guy who has bid $41 dollars on the Set Up info.
I think I'm the man for the job. I've written complex set ups before and I think I'll get us some useful information. My first question will be about win conditions, so even scum will want to keep me alive for N1 because that's interesting info for them too. After that, I'll likely be trying to narrow down questions about the scum, which means they might want to start aiming at me.
I would like nobody else to compete with my bid.

Dumb question completely unrelated to that, and maybe it's my lack of understanding on how I should bid. I have thought to place bids in $5 or $10 demonination...why $41?

[Ghostlin]

You guys all seem to be forgetting one thing. We don't KNOW which abilities will be up for auction tomorrow. You're all discussing things as though every day will be like today.

Cop/Doc should not claim. That makes them targets. Cop SHOULD disclose their result straightaway D2

.

Only on a guilty, there is no guarantee, unless we advertise that Cop will be availble for bid Day 2--and claiming a cop result is a way to go 'Here I am!' to the scum.

[Ghostlin]

He could've bid $50 as his max. Someone else bids $40 as their max, so that would make his current (winning) bid $41. Like on ebay.

True, but from his statements I believed he had bid exactly $41. Seacore, can you confirm?

Why is that so important? I had thought we had all agreed to let Seacore have Setup Information for the reasons Seacore listed in the post where he claimed the bid.

[Ghostlin]

Advertising is bad due to the fact that someone can spend great amounts of funds advertising to assure that a particular item is up for grabs the following day only to have mafia outbid us for it wasting the money spent on advertising. A possible suggestion I was toying with earlier is asking our leading suspects to spend their funds on advertising potentially draining money from the scums fund pool however I haven't worked out if it's optimal yet or not.

Seacore has the leading bid on Setup Info for $41 and Hiphop has the leading bid on Investigation Immunity for $25. No one should attempt to outbid either of them on these items unless they openly state suspicion of these playesr in thread, any outbid of these items right now will be considered to be from scum.

A few questions:

1) I believe that either Doctor or Cop should be advertised everyday we're playing to max the opportunities to use those abilites since it's almost guaranteed that I do not think they'll be up for bids otherwise. Do you think it's worth advertising those abilties?

2) Why do you think Hiplop is town since he bid on II?

[Ghostlin]

@HN, Do you mean the Oracle information is just interesting for scum, or actually useful? If it's the first I guess you can post it. If it's the latter, maybe you should keep it to yourself.[/b] Is there information that is useful for us to know, without it helping scum?

Not sure if it helps all giving input for Seacore for the question. I think there are so many things that could be checked it'd be hard to reach consensus. Seacore said he would be able to come up with a question, and even though he's on my suspicion list, not many others seemed to object, so I guess we just let Seacore ask and see what he comes back with.

Wait, what? Did you just advocate publically posting information that would be useful for

scum

in the thread for free?

Unvote.

Vote: WLC

You have a lot of explaining to do.

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: Reasoning goes something like this. If Newman is scum, scum probably already know the Oracle results and hence probably wouldn't offer to repost in the first place? If Newman is town, what would he have to gain by giving information part and parcel to scum that would aid them?

....Am I the only one confused by the logic inherent here?

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: Reasoning goes something like this. If Newman is scum, scum probably already know the Oracle results and hence probably wouldn't offer to repost in the first place? If Newman is town, what would he have to gain by giving information part and parcel to scum that would aid them?

....Am I the only one confused by the logic inherent here?

Firstly, to make things easier for you, I am town.

Next.....what would you have me do, sit on the intel? What good would THAT serve?

If it's useful to only scum, yes.

Now, if there's any use to town in knowing which things we should make sure scum doesn't get, then you should release the information so plans can be made.

[Ghostlin]

I was holding of voting him in hope that Ghostlin would show some form of reaction to our vote placed on him, this hasn't occured though meaning there's no reason to keep our vote placed on him.

Unvote, Vote: WLC.

Ghostlin you're massively overstimating the usefulness of the information for the mafia, they only gain two things from it being released. The first being more time to plan and organise their bidding however considering they have day talk this advantage or gain for them is minimal. The second being the ability to advertise and reinfluence the advertised item for tommorow however I do not see mafia openley and willingly advertising to put forward a mafia benefical item knowing that we're likely to steal it preventing them from attaining it.

You posted a list with no reasoning or case inherent in your vote and not much support for it--I'm not going to protest or freak out about one vote given with those conditions. I might of asked for the case if there was a wagon developing on me--but there wasn't one so...while your vote did go noticed, there wasn't anything for me to get defensive about?

What -was- the reasoning of the ranks on your scum/town list, anyhow?

[Ghostlin]

I hate doing this, but my internet's been unpredictable so this is a placeholder for a prod. I will have acutal reads up no later than tomorrow.

[Ghostlin]

Acutally, I just read something I need to share immediately. I won the Cop ability last night and investigated Seacore last night and got the fact he was town. I wanted to make sure that the setup was in good hands, and it seems that it is. Another possiblity, Seacore: maybe more than two scum factions exist?

Going to pop for now, because I'm praying that I won't get disconnected within 15 of this post.

[Ghostlin]

Catching up.

Newman

: Why did you bid what would have been every last penny on NK? If you did so, do you believe that NK is in the hands of scum, and if so, do you believe hiphop is scum? (Being the only other person to bid on NK.) If not, why do you think that scum would not be bidding on an ability they need (NK).

On my investigation:

I had investigated Seacore because I had a lot of powerful town reads and not a lot of scum to null reads. Today has been an interesting day as far as that goes.

All:

The game encourages quicklynching, however, do those on Newman's wagon believe he's scummy enough to lynch asap?

[Ghostlin]

re: Marketplace theft:

Someone in this game has the ability to steal the highest bid from the Marketplace, is my best guess. Each time the Marketplace has been stolen from the amount is equal to the highest bid in the game currently.

[Ghostlin]

Wait. Something's wrong here.

Newman, why did you counterbid hiplop after he said the NK was at $116 on post 207?

Let me show you what I'm talking about:

#201:

Am I the only one who sees that nk went for $100? Which means that town does not have it, but mafia.

Oh and because I did not win any auctions yesterday, and had invested money at the start of the day yesterday, I fully intend to win an ability today. I was thinking nk, thoughts?

#202:

Of course hiphop, I made the connection the moment Night landed and then promptly forgot. Excellent job picking that up.

That means
1. Doc protected target
2. WLC won the NK.
3. Scum held on to the kill.

However, if that's the case, then we must assume that no other scum were in a position to outbid him, because why wouldn't they have just bid $1 more?

There's the possibility that there is town with lots of money and they did that... but still.

Yes hiphop, throw all of your money down on the NK. Good job!

#207:

Nk is currently at $117, Either
A: town had bid on it, before I said something.
B: Scum had bid on it.

And if it is scum, would it be more likely someone that has posted in day 2, or a lurker?

Bluntly, the only two reasons (besides not reading the thread) one would bid on NK at that point would be:

1) They believed hiphop was scum and outbid him to ensure he didn't have it.
2) They were scum either counterbidding or reestablishing their bid.

Newman said he didn't believe Hiphop was scum--yet is forcing him to spend more money to acquire NK?

Vote: HelloNewman

However, Icey's opportunism, particularly since there are plenty of good reasons to vote HN, reeks of scum--I would support an IG lynch.

[Ghostlin]

Waait a minute, wait a minute.

Something does not click in a focused read through.

Ghost

- how in the

world

can you have gotten Cop, if that is the first thing I tired bidding for with all that I had, and was still outbid? You'd have to have had more then 100$ to have gotten it...

How do you respond?

/serious question

I placed only one bid that day and that was to clean out everything for Cop: $99+ $1 fee. I don't know honestly

why

the bid only ended up at $95 if you bid $97 before deadline. I can't explain that.

[Ghostlin]

MS: If you want to know the logic inheritent in that; $99 is the max anyone can bid for any ability and still be town. By placing a $99 bid on a commidity that both town and scum would want (if you get Cop, you have no need for II); we could tell if it was more likely in the person I knew was town's hands or scum hands.

[Ghostlin]

Wait... what?



I don't honestly know

why

the bid only ended up at $95 if you only bid $99+ $1 fee...



I'm honestly confused now.

Pre-Edit:

What are you talking about?

Look above. That's my logic for bidding $99.

As to the confusion, that really makes two of us. I'm honestly confused why it went for $95 instead of $97.

Mod:

Was there an error? If you could fix my balance to show the correct amount, then maybe we can get this cleared up?

[Ghostlin]

I know that this may sound highly selfish but I'm hoping we can move the targeted deadline backwards by 24 hours thereby aiming for 10 days worth of bonuses rather than 11 because I won't have any access to the internet for the next 24 hours and to be perfectly honest I am having severe doubts over HN being scum. Everyone needs to voice their opinions in regards to the Ghostlin and Midnight inconsistency because I myself am having massive issues making two cents of it all.

What inconsistency?

Either Midnight posted his bid

much

too late for it to matter, he's mistaken about the amount he bid, or he's lying about bidding (or what he bid for) Cop.

I don't see how me winning a bid when I bid $99+$1 on an auction means much of anything to alter the any of the three above since the mod just said the closing bid was correct.

[Ghostlin]

Ghostlin why did you claim cop, when you still have a use remaining?

The following posts, pretty much in succession, lead me to believe that claiming Cop even with the remaining uses was important and in the best interest of Town: Ethos 195, Mal 198, Ethos 203. There was not any disagreement of these posts from anyone in town on my first initial reread. Since Ethos is one of my town reads, I didn't doubt his suggestion.

[Ghostlin]

Scum reads right now: HelloNewman (the accounting seems slightly weird and the fact we had to go over the same calucations 3x to find a descripancy seems off a little, plus I don't like how he tried to outbid hiphop when the first one claimed it in thread still), IceyGuy (really lame reasoning for voting for HN during the bid debacle, there are justifiable reasons to vote for him as it is), bobsnox (where is Bob? we don't know), mal (his inital vote for Seacore D1 seemed to try to hang an innocent townie, and while his play has improved, he's not made with much scumhunting.)

Town reads: Seacore (obv), Ethos (Has been scumhunting a lot.), Red Coyote (from Day 1. I've not heard much from him Day 2).

Everyone else is a range of null.

[Ghostlin]

I think I'll be investigating LLD tonight. I already had bad juju as far as the bobsnox slot was concerned, and since she seems consumed with lynching the claimed Cop...yeah, something smells.

[Ghostlin]

Bluntly, Icey seems more town in the last few posts while LLD suggested a kingmaker, didn't follow him to continue to push an Icey lynch that's prolonging the day for town. There are questions about whether or not MS lied about his bid, it certainly doesn't match the end of the day. To follow my lead on Seacore and due to the above consideration:

Unvote, Vote: MS

[Ghostlin]

ITT Ghostlin misreps me and misses the entire point of my idea.

Further, in his post he agrees that Seacore is town, further contradiction himself considering that my post was about trusting Seacore.

If you're town, you need to seriously check the way you play this game.

The first part of #445 of Icey's post actually lays out pretty damn well why you're scum before the OMGUS.

Oddly, you really don't counter it, except for the OMGUS suggestion:

+1 scum points to IceGuy for the "OMGUS" routine.

This isn't about you calling ME scum in particular.

You are indicating a connection between myself and Ethos, in which one of us is scum.

How do you explain the connection?

Further, OMGUS is a buzz word that scum uses to deflect town pressure back onto them. Sorry.

Ironically, if you reread IG's post it kinda makes logical sense:

If he lied about deleting mod PMs, why didn't he just get his bids, investments, etc. from them, at least after we called him out for his first lie? I already explained why his "mistakes" aren't honest mistakes.

Anyway, Newman is scum, Midnight is if he doesn't give a very good explanation, and at least one of LLD and Ethos is.

Mathematically, if there are two scum factions, that'd leave four scum in the game. If he accused Newman and Midnight's Sorrow of being scum and was tied whether or not you or Ethos were scum, simple mathematics would dictate one of you IS scum. (Presuming he was 100% right about his guesses.) You seem to draw a correlation that one of you being scum means he suspects you're tied or are both scum for the same reason. Which isn't what he's necessarily saying at all--just the probably that one out of the two of you are. And then you have him defend the read (which he did by citing WHY he thinks you're scum) in what I can only call a moment of hilarity.

ITT LLD tries to cook up a lame case, doesn't bother to defend herself, and threatens another player on dubious reason

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: Mathematically, if there are two scum factions, that'd leave four scum total in the game (this should read that. WLC is dead, so there are three scum).

[Ghostlin]

Also, you NOT voting MS is stalling the town--which is lowering town's bonus. In fact, the 4 or 5 folks not voting or voting for someone NOT MS need to get their heads in the game and vote MS so town can get some kind of efficiency bonus.

[Ghostlin]

Sure. I have no fucking clue. He never bid on Ninja, I have no idea why he'd bid on Ninja. I have no idea why he'd bid on governor.

Look, it's not just a matter of scummy. Abilities are never 'ultra complex.'

If bids were coming back ALL THE TIME with the high bidder not winning, or with wrong numbers, or other things, we'd have noticed right quick. Bid blocked? What scum in their right minds would bid block MS? Even odds on him not submitting an action any given night, he lurks and flakes like it's a job.


Bid blocked by town?

If any town blocked me from bidding with any powers at any point, please just say so

And even if we're both town, HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN HIS REACTION? I should have been confirmed liar to him. Do you look at confirmed liars in mafia and go 'well, no idea what happened, let me not poke into that too deeply?' Is that town? IS IT? Or is it scum running away from an OBVIOUS COUNTERCLAIM.

Bullshit. I know where Cop is. (WITH ME) I know it's been bid for. I know damn fucking well your replacements lying, and now you're back peddling to save your own ass. Lynch the scumbag, guys. Both of the replacements have been lurker scum that have been peddling hard to remove me. MS only asked to replace when caught in an obv lie, and bob had been lurking all day with no good input at all.

Really...did any of you read LLD's post...'I'll vote for Ghost tomorrow if we prove there's more than one scum team...' was the synopsis. Not a bloody likely bet unless she already knows the answer is going to be yes, and frankly that's her only justification to lynch the Cop anyway.

You know what I've been trying to do today, Grey? Trying to lynch the other obv liar in this town---but now that you've replaced in to liar MS's slot, you've accused me of doing the same and have the gall to say he told the truth all along. Guys--MS lied to you. HN lied to you. You lynch liars with fire. You don't make deals with them. You don't listen to what they have to say. You lynch them.

[Ghostlin]

Oh, and the scum right now? It's Grey/HN/LLD. Believe it.

[Ghostlin]

Really, guys. The bid manipulation

theory

is lame. Odds are GI's lying to us.

Here are a few facts:
1) I have not bid on NK all game long.
2) I won Cop with a $99 bid that I only used $95 of. I'm REALLY confused why.
3) Even if I am scum, (I'm not) if there are in fact two scum factions, you'd get a greater bang for your buck waiting till tomorrow to lynch me.
If I was Weyoun's partner, I would be using that ability to lynch the second scum faction in order to get scum lynched I don't know.
If I was on the other scum team, I would be trying to find the remaining scum

Bluntly, what makes LLD suspicious is her going 'if there are two scum teams, then I'm lynching Ghostlin tomorrow'---why is that relevant? If I was scum that somehow both manipulated the bid and won, it wouldn't matter if I was on one big scum happy family or two disparate families unless she was trying to lynch competition.

Honestly, all GI has bluntly is the 'uh, uh, MS didn't lie and 'lol Ghostlin didn't vote for him right away'; which I was voting for Newman who also seemed to lie about his funds/bids. Bluntly, I don't know why you guys are entertaining lynching me when it's much more likely GI and HN are lying to you.

[Ghostlin]

The biggest gamble for me was day 2. MS had already claimed to bid on an auction he clearly couldn't have bid on, and thus was obviously scum. He also wanted a ninja for no comprehensible reason. Furthermore, I was pretty much at L-1, and if I wasn't lynched, was going to die.

The 1v1 with Ghostlin was my big gamble. I knew from the UTTD that the last will would toss it to RC/Voided, and that the cop was actually on WLC. With the cop NOT showing up on the scumbag, my claim of 'shenanigans' regarding the cop bid did make it look like scum 'sekret powahs,' especially since NO ONE SANE would claim to bid $97 on an auction that went for $95, scum or town. Claiming I didn't bid on the Ninja he bid on (He really did bid on it) made his play look even MORE skitzo, and helped sell the 'he didn't immediately counterclaim scum' insanity. I had to gamble Ghostlin would react exactly like scum, but he had no idea what was going on (since the mysterious scum power I claimed obviously didn't exist, so he was like 'waaaaaaaa'), and reacted exactly like caught scum.

Throw in me shipping 'all my money' to Voided, and I had my fingers crossed I'd move from day 2 as 'L-1, lets lynch him' to 'nigh-confirmed town.' Or, well, get lynched, but if I didn't do something dramatic that would happen ANYWAY. After that it was a matter of doing exactly what Ghostlin accused me of in the QT (bussing LLD without voting for her or trying to get her lynched in any strong way) and letting the town drag me to weird places.

Actually, while you can accuse scum of messing up their own game--the point was to get you all killed and then fight over who wins from there. My plan was to amass a whole --lot-- of money and just steal NKs from there while I had the other scum kill likely townies.

My acquisition of Last Will essentially did this: I was blackmailing the other scum faction (I didn't know about GI, in my defense--I figured 9x2x2, not 8x2x2x1) to not try to kill me until about Day 3 and by that time I planned to have the NK ability to start killing obvious scum. When GI replaced in and was parroting LLD--which come on, guys, bob really was acting like scum at that point, and her read wasn't much cleaner--I figured I had found both scummers. Unfortunately, you guys did buy the 'I didn't lie about Cop' from GI (which this plus Philosophy Mafia IMO proves that Town will buy any amount of goods and reads placed in front of their face no matter how rotten they are) thus sealing a ton of..well, not horrible scum play. UTTD as a power is useless if scum don't use it to get rid of the one faction that outnumbers them horribly; Town.

I also agree with GI about abilities and advertising --you shouldn't have let me just advertise Doctor D1, that essentally removed it from play other days, and I feel if you guys had at any point of the game at the Day 3-4 mark considered who you were lynching and why, and really WHY you were lynching them--you could of won this with logic irregardless of money.

Good job, GI.

[Ghostlin]

Also, I am a world class idiot for assuming no SK in a game where it could actually flourish.