Mini 1198 - Marketplace Mafia - Game Over

[Ethos]

Hey, Slaxx head of Ethos here. Waiting on Reg to discuss our game plan, but here to confirm our presence.

[Ethos]

Reads List:

Town

(Strongest to Weakest): Red Coyote-> Seacore-> PeregrineV->Hiphop->Newman

Null

(Leaning Town to Leaning Scum): Chaos-> Iceguy->Bobsnox

Scum

(Weakest to Strongest): Weyoun->Midnight->Mal->Ghost


Will explain them in full tomorrow when we have more time to flesh it all out, but this will give you guys something to mull over until then.

[Ethos]

Vote Ghost

[Ethos]

Advertising is bad due to the fact that someone can spend great amounts of funds advertising to assure that a particular item is up for grabs the following day only to have mafia outbid us for it wasting the money spent on advertising. A possible suggestion I was toying with earlier is asking our leading suspects to spend their funds on advertising potentially draining money from the scums fund pool however I haven't worked out if it's optimal yet or not.

Seacore has the leading bid on Setup Info for $41 and Hiphop has the leading bid on Investigation Immunity for $25. No one should attempt to outbid either of them on these items unless they openly state suspicion of these playesr in thread, any outbid of these items right now will be considered to be from scum.

[Ethos]

1. We both believe that advertising and oracle are both relatively useless at this point in the game however I am very much entertaining the idea of the scummier players spending funds on advertising cop and doctor for the sole reason for removing likely mafias fund pool.

2. Our town read on hiplop revolves around his attitude towards investigation immunity and his curiosity of investments mechanics in his first post. Also, mafia want to attain investigation immunity to be falsely cleared by the cop, this doesn't work if they claim they hold it inthread. Town on the other hand want to prevent mafia from attaining investigation immunity therefore want to claim they have it proving any innocent or guilty to be confirmed.

[Ethos]

You are correct in stating that there's very minimal downside to investigation immunity bids being claimed however there should be no reason for anyone else to outbid hiplop in investigation immunity at this point.

[Ethos]

Mafia have day talk therefore their organisation on how to deal with the auction tommorow is inevitable meaning providing any information you can on the upcoming days items is optimal without a doubt, furthermore it would be a good idea to elaborate on how you believe the bidding for oracle went ie. Were you constantly outbid and do you believe it was by scum?

Considering the first wave of auctions are now over I believe it would be a perfect time for the people who obtained double voter and vote nullifer to claim openely in the thread and for all of us to start working out which question should be asked with Seacores Setup Information. If there's any disputes about this occuring it should be stated asap.

[Ethos]

Weyoun, reread your post and explain to me how anyone could think you aren't 100% scum for it.

[Ethos]

I was holding of voting him in hope that Ghostlin would show some form of reaction to our vote placed on him, this hasn't occured though meaning there's no reason to keep our vote placed on him.

Unvote, Vote: WLC.

Ghostlin you're massively overstimating the usefulness of the information for the mafia, they only gain two things from it being released. The first being more time to plan and organise their bidding however considering they have day talk this advantage or gain for them is minimal. The second being the ability to advertise and reinfluence the advertised item for tommorow however I do not see mafia openley and willingly advertising to put forward a mafia benefical item knowing that we're likely to steal it preventing them from attaining it.

[Ethos]

If it's useful to only scum, yes. Now, if there's any use to town in knowing which things we should make sure scum doesn't get, then you should release the information so plans can be made.

I've elaborated into the benefits and usefulness of it for the mafia which are minimal, if you have disagreements with them state so otherwise I see no reason why you would want extra information withheld. Outright claiming them right now allows the neighbourizer to effectively have a discussion topic and an ultimate aim tonight while giving everyone food for thoughts in regards to what tactic they believe will be optimal throughout the course of the game.

What -was- the reasoning of the ranks on your scum/town list, anyhow?

I was hoping for some traction or a bandwagon to form allowing better reactions to be obtained unfortunatly it didn't occur. If there's a particular read you want explained then feel free to ask and I can attempt to explain my reasoning behind it otherwise you'll have to wait until tommorow afternoon when Slaxx and I are planning on getting together to discuss them.

[Ethos]

First of yesterdays scum lynch was awesome and predictable, both Slaxx and myself have managed to attain multiple strong town-reads from it which I'll elaborate on later in the day. Now on to business, the no death means that one of three things occured, these being: 1) Mafia shot at the person that doctor saved therefore the doctor was held by a town player and the saved is town and clear, this is possible. 2) Town shot at the person that doctor saved therefore the doctor could be held by either allignment, this is likely not the case. 3) WLC bought night-kill and no kill was made due to it dying with him, this is the one that I believe is the most likely. All up there's no real need for the doctor to instantly out themselves and who they saved unless the person getting saved is getting lynched which shouldn't be the case as mafia would be shooting at pro-town players that are unlikely to be lynched.

The fact that investigation immunity was sniped means that mafia feared the cop attaining useful reports, this essentially means that mafia themselves don't have cop meaning the cop claiming right now would allow him to out his report which isn't 100% useful I know however it means that doctor can save him tonight as well as providing us with a near clear being the cop of course.

There's no reason for Seacore not to reveal the question that he asked along with the answer because the question isn't likely to help mafia in any particular way furthermore it allows us to have something to revolve discussion around. The people who attained extra vote and vote nullifer need to openely claim them as a lack of claim would mean confirmation that mafia have the ability which may prove as highly useful information if we're able to win auction detective today.

That moves me on to my next order of business, todays abilities up for auction.

1. Auction detective is highly valuable it could almost be used to confirm a player to be mafia and should certaintly be aimed for by town.
2. Commuter is actually really weak, there's not too much mafia can use it for without confirming themselves.
3. Doctor, considering the amount of strong town reads I have I think it's badly needed for town to aim for doctor today to provide a chance to prevent another kill.
4. Love potion really is pointless, no one better bid ofr it.
5. Medium is useful but not optimal, I would recommend against betting high amounts on this.
6. Night-kill, someone that either invested everything or spent nothing from yesterday should aim for this without a doubt in the world, we need this badly.
7. Ninja, only reason to get it is to prevent mafia having it.
8. Roleblocker, we badly need this as well otherwise mafia will just roleblock whoever wins nightkill.
9. Tracker, it's good though not great, I wouldn'tr recommend betting high amounts on it.
10. Watcher, now this is strong, it can be used to confirm and clear multiple players therefore should be aimed at.

TLDR: Auction, Doctor, Nightkill, Roleblocker and Watcher are must-gets. Medium, Ninja and Tracker are also good bids. Commuter and love potion shouldn't be bid on.

[Ethos]

Given the specific name of the mafia player being flipped (Zaibatsu) and the answer to Seacores question I believe it's probable that we're up against two scum-teams probably both consisting of two members which means that I'm going to have to go over my reads again to find out which are entirely reliant on WLC flipping scum and which aren't.

Hiphop, I was sort of hoping that not mentioning that it went for $100 might trick mafia into claiming the ability giving us a confirmed mafia nevertheless nothing I can do about it now that you've mentioned it. I believe you aiming for nightkill would be a great idea and anyone who opposes it needs to state so soon. No one apart from hiphop should be placing any bet on night kill today.

So the following are occurances need to happen today: Cop claiming and revealing their report and Extra vote and vote nullifer claiming.

[Ethos]

I'm 12 years old and what is this. Hiphop openely stated that he was spending all of his funds on night-kill, why would you attempt to compete with him in it Newman, that's just wasting towns funds. In regards to the items up for auction tommorow I see no reason not to use it now.

[Ethos]

Seacore, here is the question you need:

"Are there three or more factions consisting of at least two people?"

That will tell us whether its 2/2/8 or not.

[Ethos]

Sure, Newmans bid on NK was stupid and lazy however it's not scummy at all and the fact that he openely claimed that he attempted to bid on it and was constantly outbid is a massive town-tell furthermore his story of how he bid on it and spend his funds checks out competely. Remember when Hiphop stated he had it at $117, yeah that makes perfect sense considering Newmans CD investment and what it means is that mafia haven't bid on the item if the battle is just between Hiphop and Newman.

Ghostlin, I don't understand the check on Seacore, his hammer and actions yesterday made him incredibly obvious town so if you could elaborate into your reasoning for doing so apart from him holding setup information I would appreciate it. With that said the cop claim really really helps as it moves you from our possible scumlist to town. Both slaxx and myself believe we've PoE'ed the mafia and will have our reads up very soon, for now we'll start by voting one of the mafia.

Vote: IceyGuy

[Ethos]

Hiphop, the bidding works in $1 increase incriments meaning that you probably got the $188 bid, he got the $189 and you got the $190.

[Ethos]

Starting cash = $100.
Win of bid on oracle = $20 + $1 transaction fee. Remaining funds = $79.
Penalty for not having highest bid = $2. Remaining funds = $77.
Investment = $50. Remaining funds = $27.
Day two started and wage recievement = $90. Remaining funds = $117.
Bid on nightkill = $116 + $1 penatly fee. Remaning funds = $116
Recievement of investment = $75. Remaining funds = $191
Bid on nightkill = $190 + $1 fee.

It all adds up.

[Ethos]

I see what you're getting at but at the same time I fail to see Newman as mafia. I need to have a conversation with Slaxx asap, but the following are reasons I don't believe newman is mafia for:

1. I do not see mafia openely claiming that they're bidding nightkill in the thread.
2. I do not see mafia investing money in a CD to later announce that.
3. I do not see how his "I invested, bid my maximum and then when I recieved my investment back placed the rest of the funds on NK" is false in any way.
4. I do not see mafia aiming for oracle on day one while giving away multiple much stronger power roles.

[Ethos]

1. It's possible, as was suggested, that he screwed up his reading of Auction Detective, I know I've screwed up reading a couple of abilities, and thus he confessed rather than be busted.
2. I'm arguing that this is a lie.
3. You and I have both proven that he had $191 at the time he claimed to have bid it all on the NK. I have proven that he could only have bid $189. Thus he lied
4. WIFOM

1. It's not an ability that is hard to understand therefore I don't see how you could attempt to attack on this basis.
2. So are you stating that he bidded $116 randomly as mafia which also happens to be the number of which investing $50 works with?
3. Yes, something isn't adding up and he needs to explain it asap.
4. I can agree that it this is slightly wifom however the advantages of the cop and nightkill are so strong that mafia can't exactly afford to wifom and aim for smaller and weaker items especially if it's two scumteams.

We are NOT quicklynching this, there's a lot of information Slaxx and myself need to get out in the thread and it's going to take a day or two to get together, we're also waiting on a double voeter and vote nullifer claim.

[Ethos]

Bid on NK for $189, fee: $1, remaining funds: $188. (If the current bid is $190, the second highest bid is AT MOST $189.) He's claiming NK because of Auction Detective (or rather because how he - and I - remembered it) and/or to have a plausible explanation why he isn't bidding on anything else.
Yeah, busted. VOTE: Newman

Yeah, no. It is confirmed that he made two separate bids on NK, one being for $116 and the other being for $189 or $190 depending on if it was a mod error or not, you've just attempted to construct an entire made up transaction record to place your vote on him without even mentioning that it takes him to L-2 furthermore you've avoided discussing the lynch yesterday which you were not part of, the items up for auction today, the abilities won yesterday and much more.

There needs to be more votes on Icey.

[Ethos]

RC, hiphop stated publically that he had the highest bid on Investigation Immunity and it was mentioned multiple times that no one should bid on it without showing suspicions of Hiphop, the item was then sniped. I think it's a reasonable assumption to make that mafia took it.

[Ethos]

Also, I'm fine with an HN lynch. This whole ordeal just seems too much. I don't think he was being upfront with us about his bidding. Ethos is right that we should hold off, but we should lynch him before we lose our bonus. I also don't understand why Ethos is having to defend HN rather than HN defending himself. Ethos, are you implying that Ice/Seacore/hiphop are all actively trying to get HN lynched under false pretenses? Or are they all just mistaken?

I'm defending HN because we both have a strong town read on him but at the same time I can understand why Seacore and Hiphop suspect him, if it's a mod error than hopefully they realize the need to look elsewhere however if it isn't a mod error I will need to take a second step back and rethink it. So yes, I do believe that Seacore and Hiphop are merely mistaken however I believe Ices attempt to push the lynch was highly opportunistic.

[Ethos]

No, it's not confirmed. He claimed it, and there is no way to prove his claim.

Wrong, it is confirmed in Post #207 by Hiphop. This post alone proves that your entire transaction record is completely implausible and therefore an attempt to create a scenario which never existed.

I don't see any justification for your vote except that you're defending Newman at all costs and I'm one of his attackers.

Your vote and incredibly opportunistic push on HN was just the final straw and solidified my suspicions of you. My vote was placed on you before you attempted to 'attack' HN so I'm unsure how you're attempting to link the two actions furthermore if I was attempting to just attack the people attacking HN I wouldn't have stated I had a town-read on Seacore and Hiphop the leading attacks of him in my previous post.

[Ethos]

That just confirms that

somebody

bid this amount. Newman claimed it after hiphop's post.

I have no fucking clue what you're attempting to get at by stating this. We know that Hiphop stated he was going to bid on NK and therefore no one else should meaning if the person bidding against Hiphop wasn't Newman and was town they would have claimed by now and stated they did so. If the person bidding against Hiphop was mafia then Newman would be town because mafia wouldn't have a bidding war with themselves. So what did we learn from this? Either Newman was the person who bid $116 as mafia or as town so your constructed transaction is impossible and instead of standing back and accepting and agreeing to that like you would if you were town you're trying to defend it.

[Ethos]

EBWOP:Well, both of them are pretty much conftown.

Again you're attempting to link my vote on you to you being one of HNs attacks while ignoring the fact that I clearly had my vote on you before you attacked HN. On a completely unrelated note no one every buy a Dell, computer just broke so now I'm using a family members that doesn't have any of my documents...

[Ethos]

We know for sure there are more than two win conditions, which very likely means we either have two mafia factions or a mafia/SK setup. In such a setup, I don't see why one scum faction shouldn't overbid another.

Let me just make sure I understand what you're getting at here. You're stating that Mafia faction #1 bet $116 on the kill, was outbid by Hiphop for $117. Mafia faction #2 overbid to $189/$190 and was outbid by Hiphop for $190/$191 and then someone from mafia faction #2 claimed to have mafia faction #1's bid and all of this is more likely than Newman bidding $116 himself as town or mafia.

Did I get that right?

[Ethos]

You OMGUS'd the only person on your wagon who isn't conftown.

Mal and Bobsnox are far from confirmed town or town at all. You continue to attempt to ignore the fact that my vote on you was placed before you began attacking HN and still somehow manage to continue pushing your flimsy and weak transaction accusation despite how obvious it is that it's incorrect.

It is a fact, you're grasping at straws at the moment and if you're town which I highly doubt you are you need to stand back and realize that.

[Ethos]

Good now that everything is explained and dealt with can we start moving this game forward again, the votes on HN need to come of and move to IG. Slaxx and I are in the process of completing our information dump which should be in the thread in the next 12 hours.

[Ethos]

Not exactly sure what Maguas last post means at all considering a similar occurance happened in this post but I noticed no difference in the next auction sales list, perhaps Hiphop can elaborate into its meaning.

I don't see any justification for your vote except that you're defending Newman at all costs and I'm one of his attackers.

Your vote and incredibly opportunistic push on HN was just the final straw and solidified my suspicions of you. My vote was placed on you before you attempted to 'attack' HN so I'm unsure how you're attempting to link the two actions furthermore if I was attempting to just attack the people attacking HN I wouldn't have stated I had a town-read on Seacore and Hiphop the leading attacks of him in my previous post.

Ethos seems to be trying very hard to start a wagon on me without providing any justification.

You've just attempted to construct an entire made up transaction record to place your vote on him without even mentioning that it takes him to L-2 furthermore you've avoided discussing the lynch yesterday which you were not part of, the items up for auction today, the abilities won yesterday and much more.

At this moment,

neither you nor Newman have provided any explanations for

my questions

(why you voted me without a case

, and why Newman claimed different bid amounts), instead preferring to attack me.

This is a blatant lie, you haven't attempted to ask me a single question through our entire conversation and I outright challenge you to quote and provide them.

[Ethos]

When I point out that you don't have a justification for something, like I did in ISO 14 and 22, or when I say there is no plausible explanation (ISO 13), this means that I consider you scummy until you provide me with a justification/explanation, and you did not. Yes, it is not a "question" in the formal sense, but it boils down to the same.

And those were answered a long time ago as quoted in my previous post, you just attempted to find any form of reasoning to jump your vote over and ended up stating that two people didn't answer your "questions" which weren't really questions and were both responded to.

[Ethos]

Then please provide me with a quote containing your justification for your vote in post #239 which does not exclusively refer to events after this post.

I dipped on it in Post #247 but for the sake of completeness the entire reasoning behind the vote revolved around process of elimination as we have as stated multiple strong town reads, the fact that your posts throughout day one included no real content relating to the game outside of mechanics. Avoidance of joining or commenting on the WLC wagon during and after it, your statement that you were going to invest on day one but no comment on what you plan on spend your funds on and your lack of care over who is recieving what power.

Since then however you've contradicted yourself by attempting to push OMGUS as a scum-tell while OMGUS'ing us yourself and clearly grasped at straws over an inconceivable transaction history and record despite an overwhelming amount of facts proving it incorrect. Still waiting for Slaxx to get back for the repo but we should have our information out in the next few hours or at the very latest in the morning.

[Ethos]

Time for that information dump I was talking about.

We sniped Governor and Neighbourizer yesterday to prevent mafia from obtaining them. What we now know is that: Ghostin bought Cop for $90. Seacore bought Setup information for $41. HelloNewman bought Oracle for $20. Ethos bought Neighourizer for $20 and governor for $31. We also know that mafia won Extra vote for $40, Nightkill for $100, Investigation Immunity for $39 and Vote Nullifer for $35. So we know that mafia used $214 minimum on the day one auction. That leaves Doctor being bought for $40 and Last will being bought for $29. There's no reason for either of these to claim just yet but later in the game them claiming and everyone stating their full transaction history would be optimal.

Now onto our reads, a summary of them are:

Town Reads (Strongest to Weakest):

Seacore, Hiphop, Newman, Ghostlin, Bobsnox, RedCoyote, Pere.

Null Reads:

Chaos.

Scum Reads (Strongest to Weakest):

IceyGuy, MidnightSorrow, Mal.

Spoiler: Explanation of our reads

1. RedCoyote, the fact that he mentioned that the deadline mechanic can lead towards opportunistic hammers inthread reads as a town-tell because that is generally something expected to be brought up in the QT by mafia. Our town read on him revolves around Post #179, his attitude and actions when pushing WLC reads as highly geninue, even to the point where I'd bet Slaxx's life on him not being WLCs partner however it's possible he is on an alternate scumteam but I'll worry about that later. Overall I have a relatively strong town read on him.

2. PeregrineV, although his suggestion about a no lynch and investigate proposal wasn't anywhere near optimal it showed a clear sign of town thinking and I cannot see him attempting to propose such a plan as mafia at all. Overall I have a relatively strong town read on him.

3. Midnight Sorrow, this is a really tricky one to explain. Near game start I had a decently strong scum read on him however as the day progressed and when WLC flipped scum the read changed to town however going back and looking into it I can't exactly work out what caused the change. Overall I have a null slightly leaning town read on him.

4. HellowNewman, this is a read both of us are incredibly certain on. His suggestion of mass-cash claiming is one mafia would avoid bringing up, his aiming for setup information is highly town motivated, there's almost zilch bonus for scum spending funds on it furthermore openely claiming the information in thread is a massive town-tell. I can understand viewing his bid on NK when it was told to be bid on by hiphop to be scummy however at the same time I really, really do not see him stating that he was aiming for nightkill as scum, especially considering the circumstances. Overall I have an exceedingly strong town read on him.

5. Hiphop, this is another read I'm near sure on, the fact that he was aiming for investigation immunity to prevent mafia from having it is a town-tell furthermore the fact that it was outbit with no one claiming it means that mafia attempted to snipe it of him therefore proving that Hiphop is town. His consideration on spending money in investment at the start of day one is another town-tell, town know they need to save money up to damage mafia whereas mafia know they need to attempt to bid for items every day rather than saving up. His vote on WLC again reads as a town-tell as does his open suggestion of him bidding on nightkill knowing that it would be vig votted. Overall I have an exceedingly strong town read on him.

6. Bobs, definitely not scum with Weyoun based on the nature of his vote. He had a good and original/insightful reason for voting weyouns. In addition, him drawing people on Weyouns wagon (us at post #161) pretty much confirms him not-scum-with Weyoun. Probably town, definitely not scum with WNC.

7. Seacore, his openness with the setup information+ his general demeanor day 1 makes him obvtown. Comes across as very genuine, his WNC vote was decent, but what makes him town (or not scum with WNC) is the way WNC pretty much tunnelled on him day 1. Town.

8. Chaos:, not much from Chaos. His #69 is a slight town tell, and he definitely isn't scum with Mal. Null-Leaning Town.

9. Ghostlin, we had a scum read on him until he claimed with cop. His investigation was silly but I can't see scum claiming cop and saying they used it, especially this early.

10.Mal, his early obsession with the SK was pretty bad-looking, but he hasnt done much since that is overly scummy. More of a PoE read. Null-Scum.

11. Icey, explained earlier.

[Ethos]

The first five of the eleven reads were mine and Slaxx did the other six, my reads were done by me days ago so the 'overall' sections are slightly outdated as our reads have changed since then so I would recommend looking at the summary to properly understand all of our reads.

[Ethos]

Then please, Ghostlin, get off newman and lets do an Icey lynch. For the love of god newman is town.

[Ethos]

Newman is at L-1, no one else vote

[Ethos]

Alright, since your CD matured 8 hours into day 2, you invested $50 8 hours into day 1. In addition, you placed a $29 bid on Oracle. Since that money is in escrow until you win the auction, you have $20 after this until you win Oracle, when you get back $9. This leaves you $29. How exactly did you bid for either of those, since both had a minimum bid of $50?

This unlike the $190 bid incident is actually a very very valid point and I want an answer asap.

[Ethos]

Can we get the exact bid numbers and timing of your NK and Cop bids please.

[Ethos]

I do not have them. I only kept PM's of winning auctions.

Why would you delete sent messages? From memory how much did you bid on each and how long did it take to find out that you weren't the leading bidder because right now this is reading as impossible. The leading bid on Cop and Nightkill remained at $50 for quite some period throughout the day therefore I don't see outbidding on them being possible in time to be able to invest nor do I see it being possible to bid on both Cop and Nightkill as it would cost $102 to do so.

It's looking more and more like I was wrong on my town-read on you and I need to badly have a conversation with Slaxx about it, we also all need to work out bidding actions for the end of today as well as organise which power roles are doing what so we have some form of organisation for tonight.

[Ethos]

Chaos is correct, at this point it's virtually impossible for HN not to be mafia therefore I propose that we set ourselves a target to have the day end before a new day starts over this means from this post we have just under 20 hours to organise everything, place final bids, start a vig-voting system and hammer the lynch.

For those skimming: Deadline for today is in 20 hours, no one should blitz because we should use every hour of that we can.

[Ethos]

Items we need to shut out mafia: Doc, Auction Detective, Roleblocker, Ninja.

We proposethat Seacore and Hiphop choose 2-3 people they feel safe trusting and tell them to bid on those items.

Commuter, Medium, and Love Potion do not matter as much but if you want to snipe them, go for it.

If it is alright with everyone else we would like to take tracker and watcher, its something that could be useful but isn't overly powerful.

[Ethos]

Midnight, Newman is more or less confirmed scum at this point so we are trying to maximize on profits.

[Ethos]

Okay, let me lay all my cards out on the table for you. I lied when I said that I bid on Cop/NK on Day 1. I, for the life of me, can't remember where the $2 went. So, rather than rack my brain any further and try to figure it out, I claimed something that was not true. To be perfectly honest, I was sick and tired of defending the same fucking point over and over and over again today, so I got lazy. It happens. I'll be lynched for it. Thats fine.

See, this is the problem, I strongly believed something similar to this was happening earlier today thus my understanding of Seacores suspicion of you but disagreement with the conclusion but I didn't believe you would continue outright lying about your bidding transactions to the point where you lose all credibility and support including mine. Slaxx wants to govern you but I really don't believe it'll do any good at this point and instead will just waste more time. If you're really town you need to badly do the following three things:

1) Find out where that $2 went, an explanation is crucial.
2) State all of your reads.
3) State the oracled items for tomorrow.

NO ONE, I mean it, NO ONE votes until all of these are done and organisation for today's auctioning is complete.

[Ethos]

How much did you bid on governor MS?

PR EDIT: huh

[Ethos]

MS, when did you bid on cop and how much did you bet on it?

Pere, HN stated he bid on 2 other items and the transaction fees for each one for a failed bid is $1 = 2x$1 = $2. Also Governor is not an ability I ever plan to use, I just took it to prevent mafia attaining it and you CAN use more than one ability a night you just can't use multiple charges of the same ability during the night.

[Ethos]

@Ethos:I tried going in a little bit over the minimum at first with 55$- when that didn't go through I tried again with

the rest of my money.

Still didn't go through.So I considered it a fail already and went for something less expensive :/

Just confirming, by the rest you mean the rest of your remaining funds, ie. $100?

[Ethos]

Lynch was reached as of Post #184, July 3rd, 2011 at 5:46 EST (site time).

Nothing submitted after this time was counted.

#	Name	Minimum Bid	Current Bid	Auction Length
1	Cop x 2	$50	$95	7 days

Unless I'm mistaken the above proves that cop was sold for $95 therefore I don't see how it's possible your bid of $97 lost it, care to explain please MS?

[Ethos]

I know that this may sound highly selfish but I'm hoping we can move the targeted deadline backwards by 24 hours thereby aiming for 10 days worth of bonuses rather than 11 because I won't have any access to the internet for the next 24 hours and to be perfectly honest I am having severe doubts over HN being scum. Everyone needs to voice their opinions in regards to the Ghostlin and Midnight inconsistency because I myself am having massive issues making two cents of it all.

[Ethos]

I may be one of the most guilable people in the world but I believe Newmans explanation over the mix up and still consider him to be town but let this be a warning anyone that lies about their auctioning and bidding actions later in the game will be hung. Chaos interrogation of Newman bringing up the fact that it was impossible to have the funds he was claiming to have reads as a solid town-tell.

I'm not entirely sure what to make of MS vs Ghostlin because the way I see it there are only two possible scenario, the first being that MS is lying scum but I see no reason for scum to lie about that and the second being that or mafia have some sort of auction bidding altering power.

I think our best bet is to put the bidding issues aside for now and just lynch the player we all suspect the most because the longer we wait and stagnate the thread the less efficiency bonus we receive. I still believe we should lynch Icey however an updated list our my reads are (Haven't heard from Slaxx so not sure what he agrees with or not about this):

Town Reads (Strongest to Weakest):

Seacore, Hiphop, Ghostlin, Chaos, Newman, Bobsnox, RedCoyote, Pere.

Null Reads:

MidnightSorrow.

Scum Reads (Strongest to Weakest):

IceyGuy, Mal.

[Ethos]

LLD, Ghostlin is cop and near confirmed town to be honest. It is confirmed that mafia sniped at investigation immunity at the end of yesterday meaning that they feared cops investigation or wanted to remove a chance of having cleared players. This essentially means that they themselves didn't hold cop, therefore Ghostlin is town.

[Ethos]

Hiphop claimed that he had the leading bid and intent on winning investigation immunity, to mafia this would mean that any innocent the town receives is a clear therefore them receiving investigation immunity instead of hiphop would be crucial. I never stated that mafia would not benefit from the cop ability however I fail to see any possible scenario where mafia lay down majority of their funds on cop and investigation immunity two items which alone do not do much for them.

I suggest you read through the entire thread in chronological order and then proceed to stating your reads because there's a lot of context needed when attaining reads in this setup.

[Ethos]

Trust me, I understand where you're coming from because I saw the exact same thing earlier in the game and no if there's two scum teams he wouldn't be considered confirmed town. Though right now I'm very much of the opinion that there's a SK rather than two scum teams because it's clear that one of the scums powers is to steal money from the auction bids which is an ability which wouldn't make sense for one of the teams to have and not the other however it makes perfect sense for a SK to have.

[Ethos]

Icey, what I am attempting to say is that the way Choas went about the attack on Newman reads as VERY townie specifics include Post #301, Post #303 and Post #309. Mafia would just want to point out the error or issue giving them a massive chance to push on a player whereas town want to gather information and create an opportunity for a potential slip to occur.

LLD, I haven't heard from Slaxx since he left on vacation but I can say that you have my acceptance to that deal. Waiting on your thoughts on everyone in the room at the moment though.

[Ethos]

I can agree and understand on RC and Seacore town but you need to convince me of Maltown because that one post of his is a minimal town-tell furthermore there is really no chance that Newman is SK. There's zilch motivation for a SK to spend funds on Oracle as spending funds on Oracle is only done to work out if advertising is needed or not and SK cannot afford to nor would ever want to advertise.

[Ethos]

I don't understand your disagreement with a vig-votting system, it allows the vig shot to be optimally placed as well as locks the person holding night kill into a particular kill which is incredibly good if the person holding is scum.

Sure the addition of a doctor or a roleblocker may make it difficult however if someone wishes to roleblock the person with nightkill watcher will catch the visit or we can auction detective catch the person and if the doctor saves the person shot we can catch them the same way.

Actually I believe I was correct about my setup thoughts in PYP (No scum in the (1,1s) and 2 scum in the (6,?s)) but surely you would agree that the SK would be inclined to bid on multiple other auction items in this setup.

[Ethos]

Fair enough.

In other news I was just outbid on watcher even though I directly stated that I was planning on aiming for it therefore if any town placed a bid on watcher they should claim so inthread now otherwise I know that I'm in a bidding war with scum.

[Ethos]

My strongest scum read is Icey by far, his actions throughout today have included obvious contradictions, changing of reads with minimal reasoning and insistence that Newman is scum when he was very quick to drop suspicion of Newman earlier in the day when the wagon seemed like it might die down.

Other scum reads I have include Midnight (Floating between weak scum and null), Mal (Floating between weak town, null and weak scum) and at the moment Pere actually (Bidding related reasons which I'll go into later).

[Ethos]

I can support a Midnight lynch though I strongly oppose to a HN vigging for obvious reasons. I still am a firm believer of Icey needing to die at some point.

Ghostlin, don't waste your investigation on LLD please. Read bobsnoxs attitude and particpation in the WLC scum lynch and LLDs overall tone and you'll realize she's likely town.

The idea of having the lynch player transfer funds to Seacore or another strong town read is a great idea and I'm struggling to find any potential downside to it so we should go ahead with it.

Vote: Midnight

[Ethos]

I didn't drop suspicion of him. I just changed my vote because of your chainsaw defense of Newman, and because he had an explanation which seemed consistent at the time being.

You continue to attempt to push this blatant lie. You're stating that you suspect me for chainsaw defending Newman against you which would infer that I attacked you for the sole reason that you were attacking Newman however this clearly isn't the case considering I had voted you prior to it. This exact point has been brought up multiple times however you seem content to ignore it and continue to attempt to play the victim card in the situation.

@Everyone: do you trust Seacore do direct the NK?

It depends on what you mean by trust.

Do I trust that Seacore will suggest and propose the kill that he believes will best help the town, yes.
Do I trust that the person he suggests to kill will actually best help the town, no.

[Ethos]

LLD covered it fairly well in the above two posts but your usage of 'OMGUS' this game has been appalling, you attempted to attack Newman for voting you calling it an OMGUS while then proceeding to OMGUS me and state that LLD is OMGUS'ing you.

Essenetially you're attempting to state that OMGUS is a scum-tell while committing it yourself. You also continue to ignore the fact that it's very obvious that no chainsaw defence occured but continue to attempt to use that as reasoning for your suspicions.

[Ethos]

Welcome GI, you'll need to do a full re-read and make sure you understand the game mechanics they're incredibly important. First of though you need to provide us with your entire bidding transcript and records. We need to know what MS bid on and how much he spend on it as well as how much funds he has remaining. We are NOT quick lynching, if GI is town his insight is going to be incredibly valuable and if he's scum we gain more information in regards to how they bid.

Icey, you're missing the entire point, attempting to use omgus as reasoning for your suspicions while attacking the person voting you is a complete contradiction. You continue to attempt to ignore the fact that both Slaxx and I were relatively sure on our scum-read of you before any attack on HN was made and keep attempting to to link the two actions to attempt to belittle our suspicion of you while justifying your stance.

For now:

Unvote, Vote: Icey

[Ethos]

GI, do you have any knowledge of MS bidding on Ninja and succeeding or failing? I currently hold Governor and I have no intention of chucking a Benmage with it however if everyone believes it's best to burn it now I'll do so.

We're not lynching Ghostlin today, it's a big no-no, he has one more cop inspection. We let him use that tonight and then proceed to work forward from there depending on the answer to the question Seacore asks.

[Ethos]

Ghostlin claims to have bid $99+1 and but have won it for $95, he doesn't claim to have won it for $99+1 so I'm unsure what you're attempting to push in regards to that.

I can agree with the logic of it doesn't make sense for MS to lie about his bidding history as mafia and therefore him claiming to have bid on cop makes him likely town as mafia don't want to create a 1v1 trade in this postion.

This essentially means you're stating that scum used some form of power to assure the highest bid was theirs at $95 when if they had bid $100 they would guarenteed have had the unbeatable highest bid, explain any sort of logical reasoning or motivation behind doing this. Furthermore they would have KNOWN that this exact situation would occur ie. Someone would claim and say "Hey I bid higher than the winning bid, something is going on here".

Personally I find it much more likely that mafia have the ability to manipulate the bidding system and the auction prices listed and I can seem them using it to create confusion and suspicion of town players rather than helping them attain more abilities but also directing attention towards themselves. So no, I don't believe locking the lynch between GI and Ghostlin today is a good idea at all and GI you need to read through the entire thread and provide alternate reads.

[Ethos]

Heck. Let me make this clearer. GI are you saying that Ghostlin used some sort of mafia manipulation ability to win the auction for cop for $95 KNOWING that a town player would know the ability was stolen and then proceed to OPENELY CLAIM that he has the ability in-thread.

[Ethos]

Don't get me wrong, I agree day one I considered Ghostlin to be one the scummiest players in the room thus my vote placed on him then however at the same time when you state you don't know or don't care about what happened, guess what; I do. Yes there are super-secret powers in the game, the fact that there's items and funds being stolen from the markeplace proves there are meaning there's no reason to jump straight to a conclusion of "It's confirmed that one of us two are scum, lynch us both!!!" when it's entirely possible that an alternate occurance is happening.

Reading back though I do agree that his "Maybe MS bid too late" reaction is incredibly bad but I still don't see the benefits in lynching between you and him today being great at all especially when waiting another day between looking into both of you could lead to a potential investigation and report to work of if he's town furthermore considering we have control of the nightkill there's zilch reason to spend the entire day focusing on two players while ignoring everyone else. GI, you still need to get through this entire read and provide a list of reads. Also do you mind attempting to explain what happened with this:

Also, before I say anything else- I'm just going to come out and say it. I'm bidding for Ninja- I hope no one minds.

[Ethos]

Bullshit. I know where Cop is. (WITH ME) I know it's been bid for. I know damn fucking well your replacements lying, and now you're back peddling to save your own ass. Lynch the scumbag, guys. Both of the replacements have been lurker scum that have been peddling hard to remove me. MS only asked to replace when caught in an obv lie, and bob had been lurking all day with no good input at all.

1. No one is stating that you don't have cop, GI is just stating he believes you have cop as mafia.
2. Lurking alone isn't a scumtell and bobs actions on the WLC lynch wasn't "No good imput at all".
3. If you are that confident that LLD, GI and Newman are ALL scum you would have no problem being lynched as it would be near autommatic win.

Really...did any of you read LLD's post...'I'll vote for Ghost tomorrow if we prove there's more than one scum team...' was the synopsis. Not a bloody likely bet unless she already knows the answer is going to be yes, and frankly that's her only justification to lynch the Cop anyway.

1. You wouldn't be a cop tommorow as all of your investigations would be used up.
2. Her reasoning for doing so is explained in much more detail and it involves the likelihood of scum aiming for cop if there's two scum-teams in comparison to one scum team.

Who won the doctor on day 1? It was the ONLY protective role, and the NK didn't go to town, so your target is confirmed town. Rather want to know this since we know the night kill holder for today and if the CONFIRMED TOWN dies overnight we can speed lynch scum tomorrow too.

I've been thinking about this a bit more recently, with the person with nightkill having claimed inthread there's really no risk in the doctor claiming and revealing their saved even if the saved isn't completely clear due to the possibilty of WLC having NK.

Last notice was Ethos was outbid for it. I asked if he was going to raise bid, with intent to do so if he did not, but didn't receive an answer, so did not bid on it.

I got watcher, I ended up having to place roughly 4-5 separate bids on it because I was constantly outbid and ended up using much more funds on it then I had hoped to spend, though the fact that mafia were so intent in attempting to oubid me for it (They would have bid $99) means that they likely have some visiting role at the current moment.

[Ethos]

Only have a minute as I'm in the middle of babysitting but your plan is greatly flawed GI, and the reasoning behind why it is flawed is quite obvious.

NK is guarenteed to be in EVERY days auction pool therefore doesn't need to be advertised.

[Ethos]

Got an extra minute. Advertising just allows a guarentee that a specific ability is up for auction the following day, therefore if X is the leading advertised item then X will show up on the next days bidding possibilties however if X is already up for auction the next day no extra charges of X are given. Since Night-kill is always up for auction advertising for nightkill does nothing other then waste funds.

Slaxx gets back from his vacation sometime today, going to have a conversation with him about everything that has occured when I catch him online and we should have all our thoughts up then along with a potential change of vote.

[Ethos]

The major one I'm worried about is the spare night kill, no question. Down with advertising it and making sure RedCoyote gets it tomorrow?

Advertising just allows a guarentee that a specific ability is up for auction the following day, therefore if X is the leading advertised item then X will show up on the next days bidding possibilties however if X is already up for auction the next day no extra charges of X are given. Since Night-kill is always up for auction advertising for nightkill does nothing other then waste funds.

[Ethos]

Looking through the abilities and items auctioned for tommorow I believe we need to make sure conf town gets Night kill, Roleblocker and ability to be the only one who knows what the current bid is for all the auctions.

[Ethos]

Sure Town: (Seacore, Hiphop, RedCoyote)
Likely Town: (GreyICE, LLD)
Leaning Town: (Chaos, Mal)
Null: (Newman)
Scum: (Icey, Pere, Ghostlin)

Vote Ghostlin

-Ghostlin was most likely bus on the WNC wagon (Basically Reg and I thought that wagon happened too smoothly for it to likely be all town: RedCoyote pushed the lynch and is obvtown now, LLD is likely-town, Hiphop+Seacore are obvtown. Only other possible bus on there is Newman.)
-GreyICE's initial willingness to lock votes in between him and his pseudo-CC
-Ghostlin's overall reaction to the situation has been relatively more scummier than GreyIce's
-Ghost's failure to grasp GI's reason for voting him (GI asserts that Ghostlin isn't looking into what caused the confusion, but rather Ghostlin is just pushing on GI)

[Ethos]

Indeed it is.

Hip, I know newman lied, but I still think Ice/Pere are better targets. His actions prior to that fiasco just scream town.

[Ethos]

Fish in a fucking barrel. Fish in a fucking barrel.

Reg and I will reread the thread one more time, see if we can't sniff out the last mafia.

[Ethos]

I love hydraing with Regfan. We always catch scum. We're setting a dangerous town-meta precedent though ;_;

I will talk it over with Regfan first, but top three for last scum are (Pere, Chaos, Mal), in that order.

If anyone finds anything in the game that clears any of them, lemme know.

[Ethos]

Hahahahahahahahaha.

Called it. IceGuy:Ghostlin as scum. Likely working together.

Also, no, they flipped two separate factions. This is 2:2:9. We need to find Ice's partner.

[Ethos]

Meh, I'm not for sure Ice+Newman are scum. It is possible it was a bussing attempt by Newman to try to save his ass and gain town cred, but at the same time Ice really really pushed the newman lynch, something I can't see scum doing with one partner and an unlikley access to night kills.

[Ethos]

Vote PeregrineV

Cross bussing is super possible and as I said fits the situation, but the manner in which Icey went about it didn't seem like bussing to me.

I like Peregrine mainly because he got really touchy when we mentioned him+Icey as a good shot. He said it was interesting that we suddenly shifted him to scum with Icey, but toally ignored taking a stance on whether icey should be shot or not.

P. Edit: Lol be nice, he got us another mafia.

[Ethos]

Also, we need Federal Reserve Chairman today. No one jack up the price. But it is 9v1 today and 1800 dollars to town vs 200 to mafia is a must have. If we get this, we win, period.

[Ethos]

Anyone with a big wallet can do it, hell even if they're scum the minute they refuse to use it we lynch them.

In fact forcing a scum read to bid on it is a genius idea. If that person gets anonymously out bid, we know they are town. It literally stops mafia from jacking up the price without clearing a scummy person. So yeah, here is what we do.

We get a scummy person to bid like 15 bucks on Chairman. If they are scum, oh well, they have to use it anyway. If they get outbid anonymously, they are then cleared. This will surely stop mafia from jacking up the price.

I am so awesome sometimes.

[Ethos]

No, we get a scum read to bid on it. Makes more sense. If anything, they will be out some money.

[Ethos]

That's fine with me, I don't remember him ever outting any purchases. Good pick.

So if he gets outbid, he is town. Otherwise his alignment is unknown, but if he is town, we got this for super cheap. Honestly at this point, we could assign one person to each power we want/ don't want scum to have, and use this logic across the board. We could order them in order of usefullness, then correlate that and make people (in order of scumminess) bid on said items. So if you list was Pere->Mal->Chaos from scummiest to least scummy, and we decided the order of importance of skills was Chairman->Night Kill->Gravedigger, we could put Pere on Chairman, Night Kill on Mal, and Gravedigger on Chaos. These would all be confirmable.

[Ethos]

Basically what this accomplishes is locking the mafia out of jacking up our prices, thus getting everything we need for cheap. The only way this could be faked is if scum raised the bid themselves, and idk if that is even possible?

[Ethos]

No, I mean can a mafia already bidding on an item outbid themselves? Because then that shits on my whole plan of clearing people. A mafia we forced to bid could just jack up the price to cleat themselves.

[Ethos]

There is so much win in this thread my nuts hurt.

Last scum is almost surely between Pere and Chaos, I have a gut town read on mal and so does Reg.

[Ethos]

Alright, I will just make sure with the mod but if this is true then we can't lose this, not like we will anyway.

Hey Mr. Mod Sir, can someone outbid themselves on an item?

[Ethos]

I am sensitive pls do not make me cry.

Alright, we need to organize bidding NOW, and speed lynch soon. I say we make Chaos bid on Chairman, lynch Pere, give night kill to Newman and force him to shoot chaos.

One of Grey;LLD takes Gravedigger.

[Ethos]

Newman is least likely out of those three imo

Also mal is town

Its one of those three, gg. We win.

[Ethos]

2 Town.

[Ethos]

Seacores question should be are the only threats to the town 2 (Mafia team number 1) and 2 (Mafia team number 2).

[Ethos]

HHey Grey, was the name of your role still entrpenuer?

[Ethos]

Can we just lynch Pere already.

[Ethos]

Fuck LLD, we can kill Newman tonight, I really dont give a fuck. We win.

Okay Grey, then the question Seacore needs to ask is so fucking easy it makes me laugh.

"Dear Mod: How many people received role PMs stating their role name as "Entrepreneur" (spelled correctly)?

We subtract that number from 9 (13-4 mafia) to see how many PRs we have. We mass claim. As long as the number matches up, every non-Entr. is clear.

[Ethos]

If we have 3 non Ents, those 3 people are 100% clear. Since mafia cannot kill them off, then its autowin.

[Ethos]

Regfan is worried that if we are in a 2/2/1/8 scenario than that might not be possible since third party might be safe. However, I really doubt a third party's existence. Thoughts?

[Ethos]

Yes it is :3

This is an awesome game, specially with the win replacements.

[Ethos]

Grey, bids end when day ends, idk if you knew or not.

[Ethos]

Oh shit, I forgot about the yes or no thing.

LOL. Good fuckign catch wow I am a moron.

Anyway the question needs to be "Are there four or more win conditions?" except worded better.

[Ethos]

Yup, can we just QL Perry and Kill Newman/Chaos? I don't even care just go.

[Ethos]

LLD is bidding for Gravedigger, Malpacsp is bidding for Bulletproof, Void is bidding for Hitman and nightkill and GreyICE Is bidding for Chairman. Anyone that outbids either of them for these items will be considered as claiming scum and lynched.

Slaxx and I will be bidding on Accountant if no one has a problem with that. That just leaves Blind Bid and Vote Freezer unclaimed and I personally want either Seacore or Hiphop to get those.

We should be able to prevent our suspects from getting any abilities at this point allowing us to dominate the night phase. With that said I want everyone to claim they have bought and won previously along with their bidding transactions and remaining funds.

[Ethos]

Fuck. I have a feeling I just wasted majority of my funds, why didn't you claim it inthread?

[Ethos]

I'm worried deleting it might result in a modkill, how much did you bet on it? (Please tell me quite a small amount).

[Ethos]

Newman, the question has to be asked about something that was decided BEFORE the game started ie. It can't be about an occurance that's happening now.

[Ethos]

LOL

Jesus christ.

I bid exactly 80.

[Ethos]

Yes we should avertise cop without a doubt and then make sure hiphop can get it tommorow. I have no qualms with that question myself and I believe it's crucial information that we need as soon as possible.

I still very much want Pere lynched today, Void can decide who he night kills inside of [Newman, Chaos].

[Ethos]

Apparently he didn't get a cop power from Ghostlin (Don't ask me how it confuses me as well).

[Ethos]

Seacore, lol. I have a post exactly like your previous one with everyones actions that I believe have occured elsewhere. Mass-claiming of interaction and transactions are good even if there's players that are funded in an alternate way as mafia are going to have to fudge their details and lie to a degree to properly explain their amount of funds especially since there's an accountant ability soon to be won. Furthermore it lets us properly know who won vote nullifer and double voter which is something that will assist us later if this goes that far.

Starting funds for us = $100 we have the basic $50 extra a day and efficeny bonus.

D1: Started with $100. We won Neighbourizer ($25) and Governor ($31). Bid on them both once only and won both. N1: We used Neighbourizer on Person X (Rather keep it secret). We didn't use governor.

D2: Started with $137. We won watcher ($100). Bid on it several times for $101, $83, $68 and $51. I also bid on Auction Detective for $51 and Roleblocker for $83 unsuccesful on both. N2: Used on person Y (Rather keep it secret). Both are in the same QT. Not going to reveal if we used our watcher ability or not just yet. We didn't use governor.

D3: Started with $106. We're winning accountant ($80). Only bid on it once for $80. We also bet $20 on advertising cop for tommorow.

[Ethos]

I think it is pretty obvious why he wants it. Its so if scum have roleblocker, he can still make the kill. If scum have BP, he can still make the kill. His night kill will be 100% AND confirmable. Do you really think he is going to go off and shoot other people when we KNOW he has the night kill? Have you even thought that through? We have quite a few mislynches after 3 antitown people in a row have been lynched, there is no way he would try that sort of shit yet.

Up until now your entire ISO has been setup speculation with the exception of your defensive interactions with us and your light pressure on Newman. Your reaction to us wanting to kill you or ice because we had a town read on mal was suspicious because you jumped all over the mal town read but totally ignored anything that had to do with Ice. You saying at the end of yesterday you were leaning towards two-scum setup instead of 2/1/10 is also bad now that we have a second mafia faction flipped.

[Ethos]

Pere

[Ethos]

Here's a summarization of what we have right now, everyone else needs to post what they've bid on (Failed or recieved), what they are bidding on today and their current balance (Or balance at the end of the day). I'll reply to Pere in a few minutes, just waiting for slaxx to reply and Hiphop CANT get NK because he doesn't have the funds for it, the only person who has enough funds to guarentee that scum don't get it is Void pretty much.

Voidedmafia:

Holds/Held: Tracker
Bidding for: Nightkill and Hitman
Remaining Funds: (Unrevealed).

Ethos:

Holds/Held: Governor, Neighbourizer, Watcher
Bidding for: Bidding for Accountant.
Remaining Funds: ($108 - $104) = $4

PeregrineV:

Holds/Held: Commuter
Bidding for: Nothing.
Remaining Funds: $212

malpascp:

Holds/Held: Doctor.
Bidding for: Bulletproof
Remaining Funds: ($218-$60) = $158

[Ethos]

If town has RB than they can claim, since there's one scum left. If dead scum has RB, then it doesn't matter.

This. This. This. This. This. If town has RB they need to claim it ASAP because there was a roleblocking that occured last night.

What? What other people? Are you planning on directing the NK? And why mislynch of we can lynch scum?

The nightkill is directed, it has been agreed upon that the nightkill will be on either Chaos and Newman, do you have any qualms with either of these dying and apart from Void do you beleive anyone else is scum or likely scum?

I'll let Slaxx discuss his mal-town read but from what I can gather it's decreased and he has some slight feelings that Mal is the SK in the game however neither of us are comfortable lynching Mal for the time being. Our suspicions against you really stem from your interaction with Ice, your lack of scumhunting that has occured in the game. You seem to be focusing soley on the auctions which don't get me wrong is highly beneficial and I've spend time focusing on it myself however that alone doesn't help us nor does it make it seem like you're attempting to nail the remaining scum.

[Ethos]

In other news, Ethos, your Day 1 numbers aren't adding up. You claim to have started with 100, paid out 25+1 and 31+1 and then gained 90 to start Day 2 with 137. You should have started on $132. Please explain.

Ah, I won Neighbourizer for $20 not $25.


Although I agree that the numbers are not what we should be fully focusing on we need to lock mafia into transaction and remaining balance claims, doing so will allow us to confirm them tonight using accountant. Also, Voided is townnnnnn, I understand the whole "Him recieving Last Will" looks bad but there's no scum motivation for Last Willing your partner when you know that it's announced in thread. What I beleive happened is that he last willed RC on N1 because I believe he held the NK N1 and shot RC knowing that there's close to no chance that RC would live to recieve anything.

Hiphop, explain your town-read on Pere please.

[Ethos]

Yeah, I have to agree with LLD, we've almost won this it's not the time to turn against each other and get personal.

[Ethos]

Updated:

Voidedmafia:

Holds/Held: Tracker
Bidding for: Nightkill and Hitman
Remaining Funds: (Unrevealed).

Ethos:

Holds/Held: Governor, Neighbourizer, Watcher
Bidding for: Bidding for Accountant.
Remaining Funds: ($108 - $104) = $4

PeregrineV:

Holds/Held: Commuter
Bidding for: Nothing.
Remaining Funds: $212

malpascp:

Holds/Held: Doctor.
Bidding for: Bulletproof
Remaining Funds: ($218-$60) = $158

ChaosOmega

Holds/Held: Nothing.
Bidding for: Nothing.
Remaining Funds: $315

HellowNewman:

Holds/Held: Medium, Oracle.
Bidding for: Nothing.
Remaining Funds: $237

Seacore:

Holds/Held: Doctor, Setup Information.
Bidding for: Blind Bid.
Remaining Funds; ($234-$Bid) = $

Hiphop

Holds/Held: Nightkill.
Bidding for: Nothing.
Remaining Funds: $79

LLD

Holds/Held: Auction Immunity
Bidding for: Gravedigger
Remaining Funds: ($210-$Bid) = $

[Ethos]

Opinion waiting is pointless however Void should be the one to hammer when he's confident that he has the highest bid on NK.

[Ethos]

He self hammered? If you are town Pere, you just fucked us over with the chance to coordinate and you make my blacklist for not only the annoying rage but fucking over a good town plan as town just because you are being a butthurt idiot.

[Ethos]

Mass claim, now.

No one bid on anything.

[Ethos]

You know what? I will start if off.

We are Entrepreneur.

[Ethos]

Claim your role.

Next post.

Then Newman.

[Ethos]

Nvm he claimed.

[Ethos]

Ethos-Entrepreneur
Newman-Entrepreneur
GreyICE-Conspicuous Consumer
LLD-???
Seacore-???
Voided-???
Mal-???
Hiphop-???

[Ethos]

You picked a fine time to leave me Mrs. Delta.

[Ethos]

What does that do?

/does not bite

[Ethos]

Also pick who goes next.

[Ethos]

Alright, pick who is next. (Mal, Seacore, Hip, Void)

[Ethos]

Alright, Voided is up. Claim role name, full role description (if any) and who goes next.

[Ethos]

Today's question is

"Are there 2 town-aligned non-entrepreneur roles are there in this setup?"

That doesn't specifically clear anyone so if Mag says something against it than fuck him

[Ethos]

"Are there 2 town-aligned non-entrepreneur roles in this setup?"

Everyone has claimed right?

This can be used to confirm the existence of two PRs. This will eliminate LLD+Grey as suspects.

[Ethos]

wtf, how are you not allowed to ask that one? its not my fault scum were dumb enough to claim non-PR

Anyway the very fact you couldnt answer it probably means both Grey and Lady are tow.

Ask if there are four separate wincons in the game (counting the two mafia as two separate wincons)

[Ethos]

uh, the yes could be referring to one of the PRs, why did you not just ask my question >_________>

[Ethos]

wait maybe not

bleh idk mine still woulda been more clear

[Ethos]

lol ok

[Ethos]

Nope.

Lynch Newman->Kill Mal->Cop LLD is the way to go here.

[Ethos]

I've been slacking since the dissapointing news that both the lynch and kill as well as the bidding went badly yesterday and thankfully Slaxx has picked up the slack. I now have internet and motivation for the next few hours so I should have my thoughts up on everything in the next hour or two.

[Ethos]

Alright, from the information that we have it seems that there's one mafia left and a SK role in the game remaining, this means we're essentially in a 6 v 1 v 1 position right now. At maximum there's one nightkill ability up for auction or grabs each day however with the gravedigger ability it's possible that someone alive is currently holding a previous nights night kill.

This means we have a lynch today, a night-kill directed tonight (Decided upon who we trust with it today), an undirected nightkill (Person who stole gravedigger likely has it), a lynch tommorow and a directed night kill tommorow night (Decided upon who we trust with it today) to hit scum, even though yesterday turned out extremely badly we're still in a great position, we just need to make sure not to rush into anything and the lynched player needs to transfer funds to someone that everoyne agrees upon and trusts.

In regards to the abilities up for auction today, it should be noted that the definition for cop seems to imply that the SK doesn't show up as guilty however this will prove highly useful in catching the final mafia (What I worry about is the fact that investigation immunity is still hiding somewhere) meaning I don't beleive that people should be placing their entire funds on cop however I would like someone that I have a decent town-read on to aim for it.

Forensic Accountant is crucial and pivotal and is something we need to make sure we obtain, going to have to a discussion with Slaxx whenever I can but I have a good idea who I want to be bidding on this. As GreyICE stated we cannot let mafia know who holds Peace treaty but at the same time I'm not sure if activating peace treaty is the way to go, ie. I think town winning it and holding it is the best way to go.

Roleblocker is strong at this point and if no one has any qualms I would like to bid on it and wage freeze is overrated, it's really not that powerful because at mosts it prevents us from winning $30-$40 but far more than that would need to be spent winning it in all likelihood.

Out of the remaining players I would bet nearly everything I have on GreyICE being town, there's multiple multiple reasons that I can go into if needed however right now I'll focus on other players. I do agree that Maguas reaction to the threat of questions confirming and clearing players alone nearly confirms Seacore as town but it's not just that, his actions earlier in the game, his transaction records, his willingness to look into peoples numbers, these are all massive town-tells.

That leaves Mal, Void, Hiphop, LLD and Newman which I'll go into later, I need to take a break for now.

[Ethos]

Re Hips extra funds:

Anyway, as for my transactions. I invested $100 into a CD day 1, I bid on no auctions,

I currently have $315, which will be transferred sans fees to hiphop.

Now that is cleared up I'm reluctant to vote LLD, I would much prefer a Mal lynch, I'll explain more in the morning when I'm fully functioning but I believe the fact we have two 'PR' claims alone is more than enough reasoning as to why we shouldn't lynch her, there's likely to be more than 1 PR in a setup, especially if the setup involves two mafia teams and a SK.

Also, I currently am in the process of working this out in some more depth but I want no one to bid on cop for the time being.

[Ethos]

Alright, I'm going to be reading into everything put forward against LLD in the next hour or two, will attempt to ponder on it tonight and have my thoughts up in the morning though I'm going to warn you, I'm failing to see how she's the best lynch proposal for today, her attitude at the start of day 3 read strongly as town as does her role claim.

Also it seems that mafia currently hold a shit load of funds due to them being able to outbid hiphop on night-kill therefore we're going to need to make sure we can pool money to win it over them tomorrow, I think everyone should transfer money they believe they currently don't need to Seacore, doctor should save Seacore and he guarentee wins cop tomorrow. In regards to the bidding abilities for today:

- Cop is something that has been decided to be bid on by either myself or GreyICE, which of us exactly doesn't need to be revealed as of yet.
- Forensic Accountant I believe Void is currently bidding on, if I'm wrong and if someone else is bidding on it or plan on bidding on it they need to speak up.
- Night-kill has already been confirmed that mafia hold it and at this point there's nothing I can see that we can do to reattain it.
- Roleblocker, this again is something that I would like either myself or GreyICE to bid on, which of us exactly doesn't need to be revealed as of yet.
- Wage Freeze I care not for though if you're not bidding for anything you may as well try and snipe it.
- Peace Treaty, given that we don't have Night-kill it might be optimal to have one of our suspects bid on it and then use it tonight forcing mafia to either kill them or not get a kill through. As for who exactly should be on it, it's yet to be determined.

[Ethos]

Of course shit goes down when Reg and I are distracted.

I will discuss with him what to do asap.

[Ethos]

No one hammers until we get an updated auction count. Catching up with everything that has occured and I still want Mal lynched over Newman but first I want some questions answered. Newman:

1) What is the other ability that you are winning?
2) How much did you bid for cop?
3) Are you stating that you don't trust GreyICE or myself to hold cop?
4) Who is your strongest scum-read and why?

[Ethos]

Let Newman win Peace treaty, he activates it tonight therefore he's the only player able to die (Which is fine) and we lynch Mal today, cop checks LLD or Void tonight and we work from there tomorrow.

[Ethos]

No, we're not lynching HN.

It should be obvious at this point that the majority of the SK's income is through the robber tool, we also know anti-town faction was winning night-kill with a bid of over $500 before the robber activated today therefore it's likely mafia are holding the night-kill.

We also know that Newman placed a bid of $340ish and $120ish on cop and peace treaty before robber was activiated adding up to $480ish, this essentially clears him of holding night-kill and being mafia unless you believe mafia have excess of $1000 and clears him of being robber/serial killer unless you believe he had $500 prior to robbing which is possible but not probable.

[Ethos]

That's enough numbers talk. Seacore, what's your reads on LLD and Mal right now?

[Ethos]

Far too tired to go into it in depth now but I'll do so in the morning without a doubt, GreyICE it's also provable that he won Medium.

[Ethos]

Newman, you're being ridiculous.

[Ethos]

Okay, the following are undisputable facts: (1) An anti-town party was winning the bid of night-kill for roughly $500 earlier. (2) An anti-town party won roleblocker by sniping it for $510 recently. (3) Newman had placed "Leading" bids on cop for $320 and Peace Treaty for $100 earlier today. (4) Robber stole $500 from the market after (1) and (3) had occured and before (2) occured.

The following are assumptions that I have made and believe are very likely correct. (A) The anti-town party winning night-kill for roughly $500 earlier was mafia and not robber otherwise the robber would have had in excess of $1000 today. (B) Considering Newman had spent $420 at the same time that mafia due to (A) was winning on nigh-kill the only realistic way he could be mafia is if he had $920+ at the time which is unlikely. (C) Considering Newman had spent $420 before robber activated it's unlikely that he's the robber otherwise he would have have had in excess of $920 today.

Due to all of these it's highly likely that Newman is town, furthermore his actions although childish and idiotic in a way read as geninue town frustration and although I personally don't want him enar lylo due to his lies and backtracking earlier he should certaintly not be the lynch for today. I still am fairly confident in my town-reads on GreyICE and Seacore with weaker town-reads elsewhere. I'll go into them if requested otherwise there's no need to continue to go into them. I'll explain how Mal is robber/scum in my next post which should be up in an hour or two from now.

Void, I suggest using accountant on Icey, having an idea of what he has/won would help us greatly especially since he never claimed to have bid on anything in-thread thus it's likely he had/has a lot of the missing abilities.

[Ethos]

I have today of work so I'll have the Mal case up then, Slaxx needs to get online so we can have a discussion though. If Mal can get online at some point between now and the auction deadline there's a way to near clear/confirm him.

Vote: Mal

[Ethos]

Alright, there's multiple reasons why I believe Mal is scum and in particular the SK/Robber, these include:

- His transaction record and history, if all of his fund claims are true he would currently have quite a lot of funds and he hasn't suggested spending these funds, hasn't questioned or asked what he can bid on at all this game with the exception of recently when it was pointed out he was laying on a mountain of funds in which he subtly suggested he may "Bank" it tomorrow but saying no more. This would all be nothing and perfectly acceptable if he was a player that had no interest in the auction or bidding on items but this clearly isn't the case when looking through his ISO.

- His contraditing attitudes and actions with main examples being his attack on HN and how it seems to only pick up and be evident whenever other people are also pushing on HN despite the fact that the's "Confident" in the fact that Newman is mafia and his lack of scum hunting that doesn't involve suggesting a target not already suggested by someone else.

- His reaction saying "What robber? Is anything being robbed here? Jeez" in post #893 in comparison to him stating "Anyone has an idea of what this means?" in response to a robbing in post #283 and mention of "*4th party existence" in post #613.

[Ethos]

Hitman + NK = GreyICE
Tracker=Void
Last Will +Doctor = Seacore

This is all self explanatory, but if you need why's just ask. As far as reads:

Seacore-Town-Attitude revolving around auctions/bidding, saved RedCoyote (Void) N1 preventing the kill, near-mod-confirmation via mod stating that certain questions can't be asked.

RC/Void-Town-Saved Night 1, attitude.

LLD/bobsnox-Leaning Town-Her claim is what is keeping her here.

GreyICE/MS-Leaning Town-Reg has full town, slaxx isn't as sure (explain later if need be). Feels a lot like town-Grey to Reg, his claim also helps.

Scum read: Hiphop (Yes, we think he shot his own partner, will elaborate into it later)

Robber read: Newman (Gah, it makes a lot of sense but everytime I read his ISO I doubt this read)

[Ethos]

Also, we are going to invest unless town can think of something useful for us to bid on.

[Ethos]

Seacore, tomorrow nights-night-kill will effectively be a lylo kill if we mslynch today and I'd rather have someone I completely trust controlling that which is why you accumulating funds and saving for it is a good idea.

[Ethos]

Hiphop, it revolved around your lack of mentioning Icey and suspicion towards him throughout the day attached with him being your kill choice, it read as an attempt to attain town-cred via shooting a partner that was already drowning furthermore there was a post he made directed at you which looked extremely odd and suggested you two being potential partners.

With that said I was reading through this game today on the way to a job interview and came across the fact that you stated you held the leading bid on investigation immunity and were sniped on day one, considering now that it's confirmed that IceyGuy sniped investigation immunity I highly doubt that you're mafia. I don't see mafia planning on team mate X bidding on Y and then having team mate Z snipe it to have team mate X claim they no longer have it.

I need to do some serious reconsidering because I have a town-read wrong at the moment and I have Slaxx in my ear insisting that it's LLD/GreyICE but I continue to maintain that I don't think GI is mafia.

[Ethos]

Just found something interesting. Working out now with Slaxx, by the way Newman is confirmed 100% to not be mafia, he might be robber but I can literally guarantee he's not mafia.

[Ethos]

I was going to wait for Slaxx before posting this and hammering however preventing robber from getting a free day of funds is incredibly beneficial.

Ethos-I really would like to know where you came to the conclusion that Hn is not the scum. I don't believe is scum(sk or mafia). Not yet anyways.

During day two people were pushing for Newman to be shot, although you stated disagreement with it the way that the day went down made it possible and likely that the person shot would be one of Pere/Icey/Newman. Mafia holding a roleblock ability and knowing that there's a 2/3 chance of being vigged is highly likely to use their ability to roleb-lock (What reason is there not to?). Also, Icey DID use his roleblock ability that night, just not on you, he used it on Voided instead meaning I highly doubt that mafia felt threatened at the time ruling out Newman-scum.

The way I see it right now is that Seacore is town, Voided is confirmed not mafia and unlikely robber. Happy enough to say both are town overall. That means that PoE says that the two scum are within [Hiphop, GreyICE, Newman, LLD].

We currently have a massive hydra disagreement On GreyICE, Slaxx says scum, I think near sure-fire town. We're not voting him today. Although PoE says that Newman is incredibly likely scum a lot of his posts read as town to me and even though I'll hate myself if he flips scum/robber later I'm not voting him today. Still highly undecided on Hiphop, gut tells me he's still scum despite being outbid by Icey but I'm nowhere near comfortable voting him today.

That leaves one person and there's no reason to continue to delay the day if we've decided upon who we're voting, are currently winning all (?) of the bids and robber hasn't had a chance to activate their ability. So lets do this;

Vote: LLD

[Ethos]

Voided said here that the Rb had 3 uses left. D2 states that Rb only had 3 uses, how could voided be rb?

He stated that IceyGuy WON the auction for Roleblocker x 3, not that there were three uses left. There's a difference.

[Ethos]

Yeah, I currently won tracker. If the person who holds night-kill also holds hitman they need to make sure to use their shot tonight.

[Ethos]

No deaths is incredibly interesting, waiting on some information and a discussion with Slaxx before I elaborate on my thoughts but I'm going to advertise Accountant today unless anyone has any qualms with it. Also; Seacore should be bidding on night-kill but no one should be bidding at all right now, doing so lets robber steal funds, we should be attempting to snipe-bid all of our items now.

[Ethos]

A thought. If someone holds more than 1 NK, are they able to use them all on the same night?

Nope.

[Ethos]

No one else posts until Void reveals what LLD had. NO ONE.

[Ethos]

Alright, there's two possibilities, the first being LLD had Ninja the second being that Voided is the robber with ninja. If the first one is the case then the no-visit on Voided makes him clear however considering he's the only one who currently holds the knowledge of whether this is the case or not it's meaningless HOWEVER if someone wins Graverobber and uses it on LLD they can confirm/clear Voided. Let's play this scenario out, if we find out that she did have ninja we will have Voided as a 100% clear and the ability to know that robber cannot visit without being caught, this means we can advertise robber and continuously track people to mass-clear players or track robber into being unable to do anything.

Considering that it's now confirmed that robber has roleblocker it means that mafia (LLD) had the night-kill, since GreyICE was role-blocked there's only two night-kills in play being the night-kill auctioned today and the night-kill attached to LLD or Icey which will be stolen tonight. So what I suggest is this; We no lynch today however we give Seacore the hammer and tell him to snipe-massive bid on Graverobber before the day ends. We have another player bid on the night-kill and we ask them to not use it (I'm thinking Void due to his funds and the fact that he'll either be confirmed or cleared either way him holding a night-kill would be beneficial). This means there should be zero deaths tonight and any kill occurring would mean that either Seacore or Voided would become confirmed mafia otherwise we would be going into day seven with Voided being a clear holding night-kill. With this occurring we can have someone advertise doctor and save Voided every night while having people donate and ship funds to him.

[Ethos]

Anyways:
D2: Auction Detective x2, Ninja x4
D3: Vote Freeze x1
D4: NK x1.

Are you 100% positive that this is exactly what she held and only this? Make sure you are before responding.

[Ethos]

Ugh. That means she didn't actually win gravedigger meaning that Robber did and stole Ninja of IceyGuy. Gah, ignore #1150 it's irrelevant now.

Slaxx needs to get online.

[Ethos]

Roleblocker (Targeted): Choose another player. All of their Targeted abilities that they activated for that night, except for roleblocks, will fail. Personal abilities will continue to work. Abilities that were not activated are not affected. If the Targeted ability would return a result, it will instead return “Ability failed”.

Considering that night-kill is a 'Targeted' ability would this receive a message back saying "Ability blocked" if roleblocked?

[Ethos]

I need to stop derping and start sleeping more, you're correct the tracker result means that Voided is clear of being robber if LLD had ninja. This means our aim for todays auction should be:

1. Voided still holds Hitman so my thoughts are that Voided wins night-kill however no bid should be placed until near-end of the day.
2. Grey can win watcher and watch Voided tonight to make sure that no funny business occurs.
3. Seacore wins Gravedigger and uses it to target LLD, if she does indeed have ninja we know that Voided is 100% clear.
4. We advertise tracker today.

Grey, I've told you my reads already but I'll do so again;

1. Seacore is town, I'm near certain on this for multiple reasons stated yesterday.
2. Voided is town, he's essentially near-clear and tonight with Seacore taking Gravedigger he'll be completely clear.
3. GreyICE is town, there's multiple reasons behind this and Slaxx finally agrees with them.

That leaves Newman and Hiphop and although I won't deny that Newman has been scummy I really do not seem him as robber, his actions and reactions to the role being in the game make me severely doubt it's him. I really think it's hiphop at this point.

[Ethos]

I don't believe they are nk immune for a few reasons. The first being they're already investigation immune (Show up Not Mafia on cop reports) and on average there's only one night-kill per night phase therefore the threat of being night-killed is minimal for them and furthermore the fact that items such as roleblocker and bulletproof exist decrease the need for them to have night-kill immunity.

[Ethos]

Understood, thanks for the clarification Magua. I think it's safe to say that GreyICE was roleblocked rather than an alternate acton occurring meaning the visit on Voided makes him clear as soon as someone wins gravedigger and checks LLD. Newmans volunteerism of being night-killed as opposed to lynched reads as a town-tell especially since he's not part of the neighborhood and therefore has no ability to convince the person holding night-kill to do differently at a later time.

Grey and Seacore, an elaboration on your current reads would be highly appreciated and Hip, you strongly believed Newman wasn't the SK just recently can you explain the change of heart without saying that it's solely due to Voided becoming clear please.

[Ethos]

Sorry, I was being vague. What I really meant was if the robber isn't Newman who do you believe it is? Also, sure, I see no reason no to use the governor ability now.

[Ethos]

Awesome, you want to lay cards on the table, you want to question our role, our actions and out abilities. Lets do it then.

Our watcher wasn't used on nothing, it was used to ensure that a roleblocking or killing didn't occur on hiphop the night he shot Icey, initially we planned on using it on Void however him stating that he had tracker/watcher as a mix up threw us of and we didn't trust watching him at the end of the night. I haven't found any issue with the use of neighborhood, perhaps my one qualm would be that I wish we didn't neighbourize Hiphop and instead neighbourized Seacore. Want to know where the rest of our fucking funds have gone? All on cop, we spent way more than we wanted on that but figured usage of that was worth it.

Now lets move on, our FoS towards Pere and Mal were not random at all, both were explained in detail and we were confident both were scum at the time. Yes we were wrong, nothing we can do about that now. We haven't "Just started FoS'ing Hiphop now", I've actually thought he was mafia for a Looooooooooong time now. Remember when both Slaxx and I posted at the same time stating that we wanted to win cop? Yeah, that was because I was certain that he was scum and didn't see any possible way to lynch him without a guilty report on him, we were actually going to check him that night but decided since we were wrong on Mal we may as well show you some respect and check LLD.

I've been showing you the respect of waiting for you to explain your town-read on Hiphop before we voted but considering you still haven't' done so I'm done waiting. Honestly re-read Hiphop, ignore the fact he shot Icey because that's meaningless since the final scum is robber, read his actual scumhunting contributions, read his complete lack of attempt at reading into what's going on today. Hell, if my strongest FoS was cleared by mechanics I wouldn't say "Oh the guy I've been insisting on being town all along and said it's impossible for him to be robber is robber", hell no. I would be re-reading everything, looking into players that haven't been looked into trying to find how this makes sense and adds up, he hasn't done that at all.

Vote: Hiphop

[Ethos]

My town read on HipHop is for pretty obvious reasons, but if I need to reiterate, HipHop is working as a member of a team. Not sheeping, not letting others make decisions for him, not only laying out his theories, not only critiquing others. When I post, he checks the details, and he asks me questions. Not to push my lynch, but to test the theory, see if it holds water, see if I'm on the right track or off. He's genuinely reading this thread and interacting with it.

Alright, lets put it this way with the massive number of mslynches and shots at robber we have here what do you think robber would be attempting to do? Push lynches and create enemies and make themselves look bad in the future or attempt to stand back, question people, create doubt and state indefinitive answers?

It's that everything seems to boil down to mechanics here. Mechanics are safe ways to have reads for two reasons. The first is they don't require effort. "A, B, and C are true, Captain, therefore Player X it is approximately 64.831% likely they are non-town." The second is that if you're scum, you don't shoot players who suspect you for mechanical reasons, unless the rest of the thread is herp-a-derp. If A, B, and C all point to you likely being scum today, they'll all point to you likely being scum tomorrow, you don't shoot the guy stating the obvious, you shoot the people who are reading you, watching you, interpreting what's happening.

I've been focusing on mechanics so much because organisation of actions and use of mechanics in that way can greatly improve our night actions and chance at creating an autowin or near autowin situation. Sure though, fuck mechanics for a second, our town-read on Newman has nearly nothing to do with game mechanics and nearly never has the only read I would say that I've stuck with due to mechanics for the wrong reasons would be LLD. That was moreso because Slaxx was constantly telling me that the PR claims meant that either none or both of you were mafia and I had a strong as fuck town-read on you therefore insisted you were both likely town due to it.

Okay, money where mouth is, Regfan, if you had the night kill right now, and Hiphop flipped town, who would you deep six? Would you finish off Newman, the man sure to be town for his willingness to be shot at night to prove how townie he is (just not lynched so that his valuable auctions he's won like... errr... can be last willed to someone - 'cause he's incapable of using the system to mail money out).

Honestly, if this happened I probably would spent two entire days re-reading this thread and likely make a last minute decision to no-kill. If I had to kill someone it would potentially be Seacore because I still don't see Newmanrobber being possible and the strength of the town-read I have on you is incredibly strong along with Voided being clear. Though I'd need to have a discussion with Slaxx as even though he's losing interest with this game he'd be able to level my thoughts.

[Ethos]

I'm near speechless upon reading the last half a page. Seriously Grey, I understand you might be paranoid about us but this is getting stupid, incredibly stupid.

Am I really the only one to notice that Hiphop goes from being 100% convinced that it's Newman and being perfectly fine with himself being lynched and having Newman shot tonight to asking to get watcher or graverobber tonight.

[Ethos]

I always start flopping during lylo, because I become so paranoia, that is really killing this person really the best solution, or am I wrong? Which is why I flop. If that makes me the sk, then so be it. Also, the lynched person taking commuter, makes sure the sk can't have it, which means we still could kill him at night. I never thought of someone else taking it. And if you think you can take the nk, then go ahead, and Seacore can have graverobber. I'll take watcher, and whoever wins commuter can have that.

It's not lylo but nice excuse. Best solution or still wrong? You haven't suggested an alternate solution other than Newman being mafia, you're just attempting to stand back as much as you can and let Grey stupid lynch us. You state that you're happy being lynched while claiming to want to win watcher. The contradictions are endless.

[Ethos]

I'm cool with lynching Ethos and NKing Newman

Yeah no, if you all want to be stupid enough to lynch us you're NKing or lynching Hiphop, not Newman.

Can somebody please tell me what I should be bidding on and how.

Gravedigger, you're placing a winning bid on it before hammering whatever lynch is decided upon today.

[Ethos]

Personally, I believe it

must be

Newman.

I believe a Newman lynch would be better.

Not voting: hiphop

[Ethos]

Grey, Seacore NEEDS to get Gravedigger because him doing so either completely clears or confirms Voided whereas the other way there's no confirmation or clearance. Look, I'm done attempting to convince you that I'm town because you seem to have paranoia drummed into your head to the point where you're not even reading the points I'm putting forward, I just want your word that when I get lynched and flip town you make sure hiphop gets lynched or shot for me.

[Ethos]

Fuck me, I need to talk to Slaxx asap, for now

Unvote

.

[Ethos]

Sigh, Slaxx seems insistent that the self-vote makes Hiphop town. I'm slightly less convinced but I do know that the both of us do need to re-read this bitch at some point in the next few days.

[Ethos]

Slaxx here,

Word of the wise to the town: Make sure to clear Voided as planned. Kill everything that isn't Voided or Seacore. Good game.

Reg Might have a different opinion or might actually still want to play, but this will probably be the last you get out of me. As much as it comes out as a rage ih8te you guys post, Im actually quite fine with being lynched. Just dont stray from the path.

[Ethos]

Not sure how you can be even mildly confused by my previous statements. I unvoted because I didn't want Newman to come in and blitz hammer and wanted to talk with Slaxx about the self-vote because my instant gut reaction was that it makes hiphop town. The more I thought about it I considered that us getting lynched today would near condemn him tomorrow thus the self-vote could just be a gambit attempting to change our minds whereas Slaxx disagreed and strongly believes that Hip is town though he hasn't exactly told me who he suspects at the moment so I'm playing this alone it seems.

There was a point earlier in the day where both of us considered it being Seacore if not hiphop because the fact that the mod outright stated that those particular questions cannot be asked honestly means nothing to who the robber is/isn't. The questions being asked would have instant condemned and confirmed LLD as mafia therefore the reasoning behind Magua preventing it from occurring. What did change our minds though is re-reading and remembering that Seacore bought doctor D1 and saved RedCoyote N1, I find minimal robber-motivation for doing that because it 1. Keeps a strong player in the game (RedCoyote), 2. Forces them to have to kill/lynch an extra player due to it and 3. Paints a big target on their back when they claim to have doc saved increasing the chances that mafia want to shoot them.

[Ethos]

We never suggested lynching Seacore, not once. I said that if it wasn't Hiphop I would likely no-shoot but if forced to shoot at the time I would likely have shot Seacore purely because of stronger town-reads being elsewhere. I did a lot of re-reading since then and don't see it possibly being Seacore but I still have a lot more re-reading to do because I'm finding it hard to see anyone else as robber other than hiphop still.

Oh and on an unrelated note, good luck with the pregnancy Seacore.

[Ethos]

Heck. This is a near autowin plan. Lets call Newman/Hiphop/Ethos X, Y and Z.

1. Lynch X today. X, Y and Z all transfer funds to Voidedmafia or Seacore.
2. Seacore wins Gravedigger uses on LLD. GreyICE wins watcher uses on Seacore. Voidedmafia wins nightkill and uses it on Y.
3. Seacore either clears/confirms Voidedmafia. If confirmed, you lynch him, if cleared you lynch Z.
4. Seacore wins the advertised tracker uses on GI. Voidedmafia wins the nightkill and uses on GI.

Only way we lose by following this plan is if Seacore is mafia I believe, correct me if wrong or if there's a way that this is breakable.

[Ethos]

Sending money to someone else doesn't confirm yourself as town at all, not sure how you're even attempting to state that it does. Your selfvote as robber would be an attempt to seem town and throw suspicion of you and the transfer of funds follows with the story. Don't get me wrong I'm not saying the selfvote or sending the funds makes you mafia, I'm just saying it's not the town-tell that Slaxx seems to think it is.

Again how is you avoiding my lynch something that shows you as town? You've shown a continual town-read of us, voting us after doing so would be a scum claim. Voided only supports your lynch over mine, I'm sure he has no particular qualms with voting Newman. If you honestly are certain that Newman is the SK you wouldn't give a rats ass about the length of the day because hell even if he stole 1 million dollars he would still be lynched and lose.

I still haven't had a chance to do the re-read I wanted/need to do, having a lot of real life shit commitments bite me in the ass right now but I promise I'll have it done by tomorrow afternoon.

[Ethos]

Yes. We did transfer all of our funds today to one of Seacore/Voided the second that we started getting voted so it would start to be transfered incase a blitz occurred though admittedly we didn't have much to send. The cop purchase left us almost broke.

Don't get me wrong, I understand what you mean about the robbing time however what you're failing to notice is two things:

1) Not everyone is from America and therefore it wasn't 7am everywhere.
2) The robber can ask to have the robbing occur at a certain time, ie they could ask to have it done when they're not awake.

[Ethos]

Really? I wonder if we can mod-confirm this. Though I am not sure why it would not have been simultaneously with the vote count.

I read through the OP and I actually can't find it so I'm unsure where I read it. I'll take another look later but yes, Magua confirming if they have the ability not to or to do so would be appreciated though.

[Ethos]

Your convenience is our #1 priority.

That's what your wife said last night, uh. I mean hi.

[Ethos]

Grey, fuck talking about mechanics then, talk about your actual reads.

We're flipping town whether lynched today or shot tonight and you'll have to reassess your reads then regardless so you may as well start actually doing it now while I'm alive to discuss it with you. You can ignore Voided because he gets cleared/confirmed tonight. That only leaves Seacore, Hiphop and Newman to elaborate into.

[Ethos]

Heck, I won't even play coy. Grey, say you lynch us today, we flip town, Newman gets shot tonight, he flips town. Then who's scum?

[Ethos]

I'm not expecting you to have 3-4 scum-reads, far from it. What I am expecting you to have though is differing strengths in your reads. For my example my current reads are:

Town: Seacore -> GreyICE -> Voidedmafia -> Newman -> Hiphop: Scum

[Ethos]

This is near the end of the game, it's not the time for you to go full out retard especially when it should be automatic win. Heck state you suspect us all you want, state that you believe we're robber but stating that you're near certain the game ends upon our lynch is idiotic at this point in the game because I'm not going to lie, my scum meta is fucking bad. I'm obvious as mafia read Defcon and Mafia Invicitus for prime examples so when someone says that I'm sure-fire mafia when I'm town it literally pisses me of.

The case on Hiphop is a LOT more than us suspecting him over Newman, reading through his actions he HAS undeniably been smooth sailing throughout most of the game based solely on the night-kill he did, he's avoided stating strong reads and when he has he's gone back on them very quickly. Tell me any strong reads he stated he had earlier in the game (As in prior to this day-phase), I dare you to. A key example of this occurring was him literally arguing with you last night telling you that Newman is town, the second the day starts he claims that Newman is confirmed scum yet he doesn't vote him instead pussy foots around. He then attempts to speed up the day stating that there's no reason not to lynch Newman before the robber can do anything which contradicts with his pussy footing around earlier but it's NOT just that he actually states the reasoning he wants to speed up the day is so the robber gets nothing while saying Newman is confirmed scum and the game ends on his lynch.

Slaxxs and my actions were not hydra waffle at all and you were following the quicktopic so you should know this. I've paid a lot more attention to this game than Slaxx and he has a tendency to relax and stand back when a game looks won, he has literally no qualms with us dying and having everyone dead besides Seacore and Voidedmafia whereas I'm different. I don't lie down and do jack shit, I try to push on the people I believe are scum, stand back and reevaluate and a lot more because I want to nail the robber, I honestly do and I want to be alive when the game ends not just say "Lol shoot everyone but X and Y" for lol win.

The more I re-read the more convinced I am that your slot is town, I do NOT see MS bidding on governor and cop as robber nor do I see him flaking and remaining inactive considering SK is his favorite role. I also do not see Seacore as robber and Voided gets confirmed tonight so there's no reason to dwell on his alignment. That leaves me with Hiphop and Newman which is the fucking reason I've been trying to get reads from you because I literally do not understand the strength or even the existence of your town-read on hiphop considering his continual contradictions of attitude throughout the previous few pages.

Knowing you this is all likely to have no effect on your read of us and you won't change your mind and will continue to push us, I know and accept that however I need some form of guarantee that Hiphop is lynched at some point later in the game if not today because if he wins as robber I would rip my hair out in utter frustration.

On an unrelated note to this entire post Slaxx just messaged me asking what else have you done with your shopping spree powers/abilities?

[Ethos]

I'm done walling. This is going back up.

Vote: Hiphop

[Ethos]

Hiphop, you state that you're sure that Newman is final scum, he's at L-1 why would you unvote to suggest a no-lynch? Also GI isn't a big fan of meta, GI hates excessive meta.

[Ethos]

And Ethos, the reason as to why I suggested a no-lynch because there are too many town tells. I want to see who actually transferred their money, and who didn't.

Wut. Robber knows to win this game they have to survive multiple days lynches therefore if they state they have or plan to transfer money they're essentially forced to as them not doing so confirms them as robber. This means that "Finding out who transferred money" will tell us absolutely nothing.

[Ethos]

1. I had bid $450 on watcher, not GI. If you want to spend $451 go ahead and take it..

Take a fucking lookie at this, town DON'T want to bid high on items, town almost DON'T want to reveal that they have bid a lot on an item because it's an open invitation to the robber to bid $449 ($1 below the current largest bid) and guarentee that the winning bid isn't him but is $450 giving him some fucking money to steal.

Who wants to state that they have bid a lot on an item? Who wants to invite others to outbid them a massive amount on an item? Hmmmmmmmmm. That's a hard one. Now can we get some votes on hiphop PLEASE.

[Ethos]

Now will you please vote with me, for the longer we sit here, the longer the chance the SK has of bidding on an item and stealing the funds.

unvote

I think we should no-lynch.

Lookie here. He asks me to vote with him to prevent the robber having time to steal funds, then on the same page he unvotes and asks for a no lynch, something that would take near forever to have everyone agree on, organize and do.

[Ethos]

Yeah, I apologise for yesterday, especially to hiphop, I fucked up big time. The good news though is it should be autowin here.

Grey, less trolling, more outing your watcher guilty and winning.

[Ethos]

2. Seacore wins Gravedigger uses on LLD.

GreyICE wins watcher uses on Seacore.

Voidedmafia wins nightkill and uses it on Y.

WHO THE FUCK HAS WATCHER THEN.

[Ethos]

Fuck. I don't honestly know what to say, how the fuck did a lynch go through before we had NK or Watcher guaranteed alive. I honestly don't think NL will be that beneficial, it'll just lead towards our lynch on lylo. I would honestly prefer to be lynched today if it's possible that we can guarantee the night-kill remains in towns hands tonight. I need to talk with Slaxx when he gets of work, badly.

Grey, fucking unvote for now.

[Ethos]

Nope. I need to do a LOT of re-reading, I avoided this game during the night phase out of shame but gut instinct is that it's not Newman and I don't agree with Slaxxs read either thus why I want to talk with him.