Mini1147-Royal Mafia at the Round Table (Game Over!)

[Locke Lamora]

Hi all, will catch up as soon as possible.

[Locke Lamora]

Vote: Maxous

Discuss. I'm still rereading some things but I'll be back later with more.

[Locke Lamora]

RE: Maxous: suspicion is partly due to choice of targets and partly due to non-committal/being cagey around NE. He keeps NE as a town lean for most of D1 and his play after TS's guilty result claim looks to me like he's playing it safe and trying to figure out where the town will go. Will illustrate this in more detail later (work is busy now but I'll definitely have a few hours free tonight).

[Locke Lamora]

Maxous' first real stated read on NE:

Neccesary Evil - Seems to be making a genuine effort to question and find mafia, I don't agree with the case on him. Lean town at the moment I guess..

This almost reads as though he's hesitant to declare a town read on NE. Why? His stated reasons imply a solid town read, so this pings my scumdar a little.

In ISO 35 he states a null read on NE. There's nothing to indicate why NE has moved from a town read to null. Between the previous quote and this point, he questions other players why they think NE is scum (especially TS) but I can't see much critical reading of NE at all. He responds to NE but he doesn't question him, and he still doesn't seem to make any effort to read NE when he considers him the second-best available lynch candidate after Me=Weird.

The response to the guilty claim is very non-committal on NE's alignment and buys NE some time:

Let Neccessary Evil respond at least.
Those votes are too quick.

Apart from that, not much to discuss.The town decides to lynch NE or not at this stage. Discussing other suspects would be pointless until that is decided.

The next post he segues into casting doubt on both Farside and Rhinox regardless of NE's alignment:

Neccessary Evil calling Twistedspoon a liar makes things easier.

And, yeah, I agree with Maxous that the speed of my wagon is highly suspect.

how is it suspect when I have a guilty result

I'll explain. There are two scenarios.
NE is town, NE is mafia.

Farside and Rhinox voted without any consideration for the possibility that NE would either be framed or was a miller. They did'nt care.
If NE is town it could be that they blindly followed a cop result to bandwagon for a easy lynch on town.
If NE is mafia it could be that they know he is mafia and decided to vote straight away to cover themselves and be on the lynch.

Either way it is suspect.
I would include Quilford as well but he is clear due to the mason claim.

we've already lost one one-shot cop and we can't afford to lose another

But you already used your ability :p

And, yeah, I agree with Maxous that the speed of my wagon is highly suspect.

Anybody in particular?
Also : Are you confident Twistedspoon is lying about this? What do you think about the possibilty of a mafia framer?

@Farside and Rhinox: Why did the two of you instantly beleive the result from Twistedspoon? As far as I remember he was on both of your suspect lists.

The questions here do not focus on determining NE's alignment; instead they revolve around who's suspect out of those who voted him, and what other potential explanations there could be for the guilty result. His attitude seems to be that both TS and NE are town, which I find to be an unlikely attitude for a townie to take in this situation, mainly due to the lack of consideration that one/both could be scum.

ISO 40 is a strange one that I can't quite fathom out. Maxous basically outlines why it's incredibly unlikely that TS is mafia; but then doesn't take the logical step that NE is likely mafia. He does state that it's plausible they could both be mafia, but again there's a lack of thrust here. Honestly, I would expect a buddy to cast more doubt on TS than Maxous is doing here, although TS is at L-2, so the motivation of trying to buy towncred by arguing that TS is town could apply.

In 41 we finally get an indication that he doesn't actually believe this framer theory:

point.
At Maxous and anyone else in the game. Have you ever seen a person claim cop and question it?

Yes.
And by "question it" you mean wondering if there is a framer? How can a cop know for sure?
Even if you are a cop the only people that know for sure are mafia. There is usually a possibility that your results can be manipulated, unless the set-up states otherwise.
The reason I have'nt voted NE is in case there is a framer. With TS voting NE yesterday it is feasible the mafia could accurately guess who TS would investigate.
That being said I currently don't think so, but the possibility is worth exploring.
[/quote]

So the underlying implication is that he

does

think NE is scum. So where's the analysis? He says he's rereading, but there are no results. This is compounded by the response to NE in ISO 43 (bolded for emphasis):

There's no reason for him to think that there is a framer, or for anybody else to think that. Cop sanity is guaranteed in normals. TS was expressing doubt in his guilty result to give him an out. When I flip town, he'll insist that there is a framer or something that altered his result. He knows he'll be lynched if he doesn't give himself some kind of out.

He did'nt express doubt about the result.

Do you have any reason to think there is a framer? Does anybody? How do you suggest we explore this possibility?

Well I don't have a reason to but there was no point in rushing into a lynch without exploring the possibility. We're not short on time.

The only way to explore the possibiltiy is seeing if there is enough reasonable doubt about yourself being mafia

And there's my biggest problem of all. For the entirety of the game, there's barely a shred of evidence that Maxous has read NE's posts and tried to assess his alignment. The first post I quoted is the only time he really indicates that he's assessed NE at all, and even then his conclusion doesn't quite match his stated findings. Now we get to this situation where he explicitly states that the only way to assess the existence of a framer is to see if there is 'reasonable doubt' about NE being scum. Why is there no evidence of this? Ever since the guilty, Maxous has repeatedly stated the possibility of a framer, but not only does he apparently never believe one existed, he also gives no indication of trying to assess NE's alignment based on his posts,

which he declares is the only way to explore his theory.

Finally, after again questioning someone else (Duplicity) about their NE read without giving his own opinion, he moves on to voting NE, still with no indication of whether he's ever read NE's posts and decided how likely his framer theory is.

[Locke Lamora]

Duplicity: what is it that makes you think NE/TS weren't bussing D1?

Prosaurus: have you read a scum QT from any of your previous games?

If people are still considering massclaim I say we definitely shouldn't do it. I don't see how it could help town more than scum at this stage.

[Locke Lamora]

Maxous: well, that's just it. The way you went about it looked like you were trying to plant ideas and seeing if they took root rather than making any assessment of your own. It very much reads like scum waiting to see which way the wind is going to blow before committing. So yes, your answer about how you explore the possibility of a framer is fine, but the lack of evidence of you doing it is scummy. Your explanation of your D1 suspicions indicates that you didn't downgrade NE based on his play, but based on your reads of other people, which again shows a lack of critical reading on the NE slot on your part. In short, you inexplicably treat NE's slot differently to other players throughout the game, which is a strong indicator of a scumbuddy.

Let me ask you this: if NE was such an obvious target for TS, why do you think he was still given the chance to use his investigation?

Prosaurus: do you have a case? Do you have any questions for me? What do you think of Duplicity's towntells on my slot (that he mistakenly attributed to you)?

[Locke Lamora]

Well, I've seen townies be sure they've caught scum a thousand times, and vote-hopping and bandwagonning can be pro-town if done right. But yes, I recommend you reread and draw your own conclusions.

TS: why did you think NE was the best lynch on D1?

[Locke Lamora]

Quilford: are you having a laugh?

[Locke Lamora]

I thought it was funny. I mean, I think the only person who's expressed strong suspicion of this slot recently is Prosaurus, who upon being questioned, admitted he hadn't read the game properly.

[Locke Lamora]

The more I read this TS response to Oso, the more it sounds like cognitive dissonance:

4 strong reasons there why his claim is not false:

• No reason, that I can think of, for scum to claim just out of the blue like that, especially not a day role where we can see the result in-thread.
  
• He has committed himself in such a way that he can't really back out of it. So he's not bluffing about being able to kill. He can day kill.
  
• He has shut off his options. Rarely (I mean as in never) have I personally seen scum shut off their options as completely as that this early in the game.
• He never does mention vigging anyone who votes him.

From where I stand right now, Javert is exactly what he claims to be.

:goodposting:
It doesn't matter though really if his claim is false at this moment in time though, since he'll be making his kill before the end of the day

[Locke Lamora]

Yeah, I guess Rhinox brought up some interesting potential EA-NE links. I think EA's approach to NE was unfortunate in that he read him completely wrong, but he was pretty unashamed about stating his suspicions and wasn't playing with caution indicative of scum, but then I would say that. Contrast that with Maxous, who does not look like a townie critically reading NE at all.

In any case, despite his points, Rhinox's conclusion indicated a lack of suspicion on my slot largely due to PoE, so it didn't really seem like it was actually a 'convincing argument'. It was more 'this is interesting...but I don't really think he's scum'.

Maxous: I don't think that really explains it. Say you're scum with NE. You see TS do two things:
a) claim 1-shot cop
b) spend all day stating suspicion of NE
What reason do you think there could be for not killing/blocking TS? Why is Juls a better kill than a claimed cop who the scumteam know is going to investigate scum?

[Locke Lamora]

I guess it's plausible. TS's flip would then confirm NE as scum, though, so the scum would effectively be conceding that they'd lose a member one way or another. My other issue with that is 2 1-shot cops and a mason pair is pretty powerful (if I remember rightly the stats indicate that vigs don't actually increase town's win chances, but I might be wrong). Either way, you've got to be thinking that any scumteam would have at least a couple of PRs to counteract those. I'd expect a Godfather with the two cops, so what else is there if not a blocker? If there was a Framer they just would have made NE show up as innocent. The only other thing I could see to plausibly counteract town's power is a rolecop so that the scum could find the PRs, and that makes me feel a whole lot worse about TS.

[Locke Lamora]

Farside's approach to NE:

ISO 15 - Asks Ender why he singles out NE for lurking. Null here, could be town wondering about treating players differently, could be scum trying to tie Ender to NE.

ISO 22 - Questions NE about voting based on 'thin reasoning' because lots of other people have been doing it. I find this one scummy. You don't stop scumhunting just because several people are doing the same scummy thing. Also says she doesn't like NE's case; doesn't state whether she thinks this is scummy or not.

ISO 23 - asks NE about his switch to Ender and asks why he is scummier than Oso. Again lacks any strong scum/town lean.

ISO 28 - some ISOs here. It gets a little confusing with the Me=Weird ISO. Farside states she agrees with his points on NE, but then seems to indicate that the main point she agrees with is a stretch, THEN she says she thinks she has found a town-tell on M=W:

I like your points on NE especially this:

First, he says he thinks the votes on ender are "ridiculous", but later on(when there's a wagon) he votes ender for including possibilities of javert being town, which as I have said multiple times, even though there are more possibilities of him being town, doesn't mean he is. The one where he's scum could still be more probable.

There is some back and forth between NE and MW that I need to read NE before I decide on a few things here:

And I see that the point is a stretch at best as the only thing NE stated was during the rVS stage here:

here
I found something in MW that I believe means he is town. I'm going to hold this one close to the chest.

Following this there's an admission that she has a 'meh read' on NE. Seems to focus on him providing reasons: good for EA, bad for his other suspects. Again not a lot of follow-through here; from the tone I'd guess that Farside is reading NE on the scummy side, but there's an odd lack of thrust. This is also evident in the M=W questioning above; this may just be because of the way Farside's putting the post together; it looks like she's reading and commenting as she goes, so there's some disconnection in her thinking which doesn't read right.

ISO 48: near deadline, Farside takes a look at the 3 main wagons. I'll quote all of this because it's useful to note how she decided on her vote:

I'm reevaluating the main 3 that people are talking about.

Oso - I would not lynch Oso. Although I found EA's point interesting it does not outway the scum hunting, questioning and POV's that oso has displayed today. He's evulated many people in the game and brought up cases that ring town to me.

NE: I don't care much for NE's reason's for finding MW scummy. Their weak tells (on is a stregth at best). He has found TS scummy most of the game and he defended his reasoning for his vote on ender well. However I see no strong scum reads coming from him.
MW - I have many issues with MW recently. He has called Oso town most of the day but when EA brings up a point he states the follow:

Maxous, can you please consolidate why you think I'm scum into one post. Thanks.
I can see Oso as an alternate lynch, seeing as how EA made a good point about believing the claims and still suspecting them.

He also barely mentions Klaz all day but has no problem jumping on the BW here:

Hm. I don't entirely approve of the ender kill.
Post #244: Klazam attacked me and prosaurus for "role-fishing". Scum often look for townies doing common "scumtells" that are so widely known, scum don't actually do anymore. And thus useless as scum-tells.
This, combined with not providing much reasoning for his votes, lots of short, content sparse posts and scum vibes, makes me think he's scum. He seems like the most likely of my scumspects to get lynched, and I don't like wasting my vote, so

Unvote, Vote: Klazam

Also he made a case on NE here but NE never stated it was rediculous and when he had stated something about Ender it was during the RVS discussion.
Finally he is attack on Pro looks scummy as I feel Pro is newb asking question and trying to figure things out but he spins it more into something scummy.

vote: Me=Weird

In short I find MW and NE scummy for different reasons. I find MW's post more scummy as I see him pushing on easy lynches and following BW without much reason.

I detect a difference in tone between the NE and M=W sections of this post. There's a lot more attacking thrust towards M=W's slot. She states some negative points against NE, but they are very much diminished in contrast to M=W's vote on Klazam, and by slotting in her conclusion on NE in with M=W, she makes her points against NE read very much as null while M=W is super-scummy, even though two of the stated problems with NE's play (weak reasoning and lack of strong scumreads) are on a par with most of what she brings up against M=W. This is reminiscent of several of her other posts relating to NE in the game: potentially negative connotations but without the accompanying aggression I'd expect from Farside on a scumread. This also makes Farside's mystery towntell on M=W look very dubious.

ISO 54: Farside votes NE after TS's guilty.

ISO 55: Farside does an about-turn and spots a 'slip' from TS. I can see this going either way. TS's reaction is pretty dubious for someone who definitely has a guilty. The choice of language ('I think') is indicative of caution and I can see why Farside-town, who suspected TS after his D1 claim, would be all over this. On the flip side, the instant vote for NE and then the change in direction once TS says something suspect could definitely be scum who thought they had to bus their partner until they saw a good opportunity to make TS look scummy.

ISO 67: This one is interesting because Farside has suggested TS and NE are scum together and this is a gambit. The timing of this is key - NE is definitely looking like the lynch at this stage, and sure enough, the very next post NE hammers. The reason I find this scummy is that Farside has been very sure of TS-scum since his 'slip', but when the lynch turns back towards NE, she throws out this little bit of doubt and starts sounding a lot more confused than she did. I can empathise with the confusion, but the timing is scummy.

Summary: Farside's attitude to NE seems somewhat non-committal and similarly uncritical to Maxous. The reasons behind the choice of M=W over NE are probably the scummiest point for me; in that post it really feels like she's trumping up the case against M=W to justify the vote, whilst downplaying NE's scumminess to imply that M=W is the obvious choice. I do see the aggressive scumhunting I'd expect from Farside on other slots, and potentially she has just been unfortunate in her reads (e.g. her suspicion of Klazam is entirely justified based on his play, only to be shot down by Juls' mason claim), but the timing of certain posts and the difference in attitude towards NE and other players puts her as a likely NE buddy for me. I still have Maxous ahead, because there's just no evidence of him even considering NE as scum, even in situations where he should be, whereas Farside does make enquiries and probe at NE in a manner that suggests she could be trying to figure out alignment; there's just not quite the follow-through I'd expect, which is what makes me doubt the authenticity.

One thing I really do want to know:

Farside: what was your town-tell on M=W on D1, and what happened to it?

And on that note, I'm going to be V/LA for a week from tomorrow as I'm on holiday, so I won't be online at all during that time. I'll check back in a few hours to see if there are any responses and decide where to put my vote.

[Locke Lamora]

What do people actually think the benefits are to mass-claiming here? As far as I can tell, it's very unlikely that we're going to have any verifiable night actions and so all it would do is help scum.

TS: I got back late Tuesday night, so I was here for part of the night phase. As for your Prosaurus point, unless you think that there's a two-man scum team, he would still have someone else with him suggesting a kill. Unless you think the scumteam are both inexperienced, in which case you're pointing the finger at yourself.

[Locke Lamora]

Right, but in relative terms, it's not like Farside, Duplicity or myself lack experience. I'm not saying you're a newbie, but if your argument is that the scumteam were too inexperienced to realise that leaving alive a confirmed townie is a bad idea, you actually fit the bill better than any of us three. My guess is that the scum were either worried about a doctor blocking the Quilford kill, they thought Rhinox might be a PR/a bigger threat to their chances of victory than Quilford, or they were simply that confident that Quilford was not going to damage their chances of victory and wanted to confuse town with the kill.

[Locke Lamora]

If someone can tell me why massclaim helps town more than it helps scum, then I'll claim. Otherwise I don't see the need to.

As for the Prosaurus evidence, I didn't prove your point at all. I disproved your first point so you changed your argument to say he might have an experienced scumbuddy who told him to make a daytalk 'slip'.

[Locke Lamora]

Duplicity: who do you think is TS's buddy now that Maxous has flipped town? Why did you decide that NE/TS could be a bus but then later state that their interactions D1 didn't look like it was?

Farside: is TS still your number one suspect? What do you think the likely pairing is?

Prosaurus: why do you have nothing to say? Why do you think massclaim is a good idea? Why did you vote Farside yesterday, other than the reason that 'nothing's happening'?

TS: yes, a slight one. I don't think his play has been great but I don't think he's been doing anything that looks scum-driven either. Assuming Quilford's list is from scummiest to least scummiest, do you agree with those rankings? Given that we've already had two investigative roles claimed, why do you think massclaim might catch scum?

Something else has occurred to me reading back what I missed but I'll keep it under wraps until I get some reactions.

[Locke Lamora]

Duplicity: so in essence it's not that massclaiming is likely to be of any major benefit to the town, you just don't think it's particularly detrimental either? If this was a theme with flavour and potentially unusual mechanics I'd be more inclined to hear some claims, but in all honesty I don't see what we're going to get out of them from a normal. In my book there's one clear advantage scum could gain, against a few negligible points for town.

[Locke Lamora]

Farside: I'm fluctuating between believing TS and not. If he is town then you/Duplicity, but most of that's POE. I think Prosaurus is likely town. Spectacularly useless town at that, but town. Right now I'm going to ISO NE and look for any connections.

Bonus points for anyone who can tell me what's wrong with Quilford's claim list.

[Locke Lamora]

NE ISO (spoilered for length):

Spoiler: ISO

Post 1: the push on Oso for his weak case on EA. Doesn't really look like a bus, but I'm reconsidering this in the context of the unvote fairly soon (post 3) and the later insistence that Oso is town.

3: sets up a choice between Prosaurus, TS and Ender, based on the heat Javert was getting for not answering questions. I'm going to quote part of this one because it's telling how he builds the case and then draws a conclusion.

I'm not liking the heat that Javert was receiving for not answering quesitons. That's a playstyle issue, not an alignment issue. Unforunatley, townies will jump all over people for this sort of thing all the time and it's easy for scum to hide among them. So, let's see; farside22 wasn't really voting Javert for not answering questions, so I'm not counting her. Twistedspoon has been active lurking for the most part and he voted Javert, so he might be scum. Prosaurus is very similar: he voted for Javert and he has been active lurking. ender241 voted Javert for not answering questions and Oso makes a compelling case for ender, but I don't think Oso is town and I'm not going to sheep his read whithout a strong town read on him. ender posted this:

You have misinterpreted what i'm saying, i'm saying he's either doing one of three things.

1. He is scum and basically trying to make himself stay alive for ages.

2. He's just a normally townie who's got himself into a sticky situation.

3. He's a DayVig and just a total dick who can't be assed posting and is just being a total dick about the whole game.

Thats what i'm trying to say, i don't want dicks in the game.

This looks like a scummy reaction to Oso's vote. He's trying to scramble away from what he said before:

UNVOTE: VOTE: Javert Start answering questions, i doubt your a DayVig.

Basically your using "Day-vig" as your excuse to say what you want.

Also, ender thinks there are three possibilities regarding Javert and only one of them invovles him being scum, why vote? Between the vote and his posting, his behavior does not suggest the other two possibilities. Then he unvotes and votes me for lurking for a whole day (oh, for shame!). That's rather suspicious.

It's hard to pick between Twistedspoon, Prosaurus, and ender, but ender is just enough ahead that he deserves my vote.
UNVOTE: VOTE: ender241

So TS and Prosaurus he basically has only two points against: the objection to Javert's attitude, and active lurking. In contrast, he clearly builds a case on Ender based on a couple of additional points, so why is he only 'just enough ahead'? The phrasing implies a more equal level of scumminess than the post actually indicates, so I'm wondering whether he's making an effort to look like he suspects TS or Prosaurus more than he actually does. This makes me more inclined to believe that at least one of TS and Prosaurus is scum.

4: features a clarification to Prosaurus that active lurking means he has been posting but not contributing. Gives me pause for thought about coaching.

5: says Javert should 'shoot whoever he wants' rather than letting it be decided by vote. Good way to distance yourself from any decision-making to avoid implication; bear in mind that Ender is the vote leader at this stage and Javert is personally voting Ender, so this doesn't really tell us too much else other than NE probably wasn't particularly worried about scum getting vigged.

6: now 'Oso is looking more town by the post'. NE's focus has not really been on Oso since post 3, and there's not much clarification of this townread, although the implication is that Oso's case on Ender is pro-town. There's also what is basically an OMGUS reaction to TS's vote based on NE being 'under the radar', as we can see here:

indeed, NE has gone under the radar for too long

I'm fine with this wagon. My vote on Javert is utterly redundant anyways now that his wagon is gone and he's claimed :/

VOTE: NE

Twistedspoon is still active lurking for the most part and he's now sheeping Me=Weird's terrible vote on bad reasoning. I'm not "under the radar" just because I don't post as much as some people.
UNVOTE: VOTE: Twistedspoon

There's a slightly hostile tone to this response that makes me think that NE is a little too angry at TS for sheeping M=W's vote; potential here for a buddy getting annoyed that TS has decided to hop on his wagon based on what he perceives to be a weak case.

7: Very interesting snippet here on the vig:

Really the best way to play a vig is to kill problem players like VIs, lurkers, etc. It sounds like that's what Javert is planning on doing anyway.

So we can tell two things from this:
1. NE's not overly concerned about any of the VIs/lurkers dying.
2. NE's perception is that Javert is going to kill someone who he considers a VI/lurker.

Players NE has stated are 'active lurking' at this point: Prosaurus, Twistedspoon. The only other player he's discussed lurking in relation to is himself, although Klazam is obviously a major absentee at this stage and would be a prime lurker vig target. NE hasn't actually stated he thinks anyone is a VI at this stage, so again this may be as simple as him thinking Javert is going to shoot Ender/Klazam. I still count this as a slight point in favour of Prosaurus and TS being town, given that he'd have to agree with a choice of shot on either of those given his repeated accusations of active lurking.

8: tells Prosaurus that Klazam's appearance at an opportune moment is a null-tell. Why warn someone off suspecting a player who has done nothing all game? Possible coaching again.

Farside also challenges NE about Pro, and NE responds by saying that neither TS nor Pro are scumhunting, but TS is far worse. He even goes so far as to call him 'obvscum' here. Pro looks like a more plausible buddy than TS here.

9: Response to TS's claim. Worth quoting:

I won't have time to write a full post until tomorrow, so just a couple of thoughts:
a) Javert needs to post ASAP.
-and-
b) TS is just dripping with scum, but his claim fits with his speculation about a one-shot themed game and it looks like we're going to give him at least a night anyway. I wouldn't loose any sleep if he was killed/lynched, but if the rest of you are moving on, I'm fine with that.
UNVOTE: Twistedspoon

Definitely going with the town on this one. Perceives that people might be buying TS's claim and openly admits that he'll give him a chance if everyone else is. The thing that irks me about this is he's unusually eager to drop his number one suspect, which makes me suspect TS. However, this probably does help NE to appear pro-town, so it cuts both ways.

10: Putting up a huge red flag on this one:

@EA: I'm surprised that you were grilling Klazam over lurking after the last game the three of us were in (it's completed, so no worries). At least he posted that he was V/LA this time. Why are you attacking him over it now?

What are you talking about? Klazam didn't lurk in Mini 1133 at all. He had 59 posts which is pretty damn good considering he was only alive for roughly nine RL days. For comparison this game has been active for roughly eight RL days and he's made ten posts. Half of which are worthless saporovirusy fluff.

Well, I disagree with you about the other game and your standard for lurking is odd. But that's neither here nor there. I looked at his ISO and you do have a point about him. I was going to say that ten posts in eight days can hardly be described as lurking, but as you pointed out, a lot of those posts don't contribute much. I get the feeling that something is up with him, but I can't really put my finger on it yet.

It was definitely odd to me that he was soft with TS before his claim.

Bolded for emphasis. This absolutely screams of subtly trying to tie Klazam to TS, and there's only one reason NE would do that. I feel very much more inclined to believe TS is scum after this.

At the end of this post, NE also sets up a Prosaurus-M=W dichotomy by saying that he thinks only one of them is scum. Vote count context: Prosaurus is the vote leader with 2 votes, with 5 other players on 1. That means that this has a hint of NE covering his back with Pro; he doesn't seem to be looking at him critically and really has just commented on his active lurking and lack of contributions rather than trying to prod him into anything.

12: NE follows up by making a case and voting for M=W. He doesn't appear to have looked at Prosaurus here; he just concludes that he doesn't think Prosaurus is scum because he believes that M=W is. At this stage, it looks a bit more like NE is just trying to set up mislynches; he pushes the idea that M=W and Pro aren't buddies, and he knows M=W will flip town, opening him up to fake reconsidering his reads D2 and change his attitude to Pro. That said, the lack of analysis of Pro's posts still concerns me slightly.

13: mostly a long rant against M=W that I won't go into for obvious reasons. There is an interesting note at the bottom that he's read EA's case on Oso and doesn't really agree with it (although it's not 'awful' either). He also restates his town read on Oso after the early part of the game. The vote context here is that M=W has switched his vote to Oso and EA is repeatedly shouting 'Vote Oso' at everyone. There's not really much danger of Oso getting lynched, though - M=W now has 4 votes and EA isn't garnering much Oso support. I'm inclined to think this is more likely just NE being consistent with his Oso 'townread' than it is defence from a buddy.

16: TS has just claimed his guilty, so NE naturally immediately votes for him. He also agrees with Maxous about his wagon being too fast. For the record, these votes, in order, are: Twistedspoon, Quilford, Farside, Rhinox. Of the wagoners, we have a confirmed townie and a flipped townie, so the only person left that NE could be pointing the finger at here is Farside. Obviously we have to take everything from here on with a grain of salt, but this makes me feel better about Farside-town.

The rest: from here on it's basically just an effort to make TS look bad and asking how he could survive without claiming a guilty. He also makes some attempts to implicate Rhinox based on him believing TS despite previously thinking he was scum. I think this probably lends weight to the gambit theory; if TS gets lynched in this situation, NE's not only going to get lynched the next day himself, but he's also cleared Rhinox because of this push. Bear in mind that Quilford and Javert are both already practically confirmed town at this stage, and NE pushing on Rhinox doesn't make much sense unless he knows there's something to link him to. There's absolutely no way Rhinox would get lynched at that stage, and if NE knows TS is town, then all he's doing is giving town a boost by going after Rhinox so strongly as to clear him when TS gets lynched. That would leave NE + scumbuddy against three fairly obv-town players with NE guaranteed to get lynched the next day.

In conclusion, I feel a lot worse about TS now than I did before this ISO, as there are definite attempts to link more than one player to him in ways that really don't look like scum on town, and not great about Prosaurus either, as there's just so little evidence of NE actually reading his slot other than to do some coaching, although the attempt to set up the M=W/Prosaurus choice does give me a town vibe. The Oso attitude is kind of strange; he seems to go from a pretty strong scumread on Oso to pretty much refusing to consider he could be anything other than town. I don't think it's particularly reminiscent of a buddy, though. There's not a whole lot to go on with Farside, which does give me pause based on NE's meta (I'll go into this in a bit) but the attempt to point the finger at people on NE's quick wagon makes me doubt that connection too.

Quilford: how do you think the events of Open 292, particularly the cop claim, affected NE's approach to this game? Which interactions of his do you think match his play with Crazy there?

[Locke Lamora]

F
Bonus points for anyone who can tell me what's wrong with Quilford's claim list.

ooh, pick me =D

LL
Prosaurus
farside
Duplicity

we already know ts' claim and mine

farside already claimed VT d3 didn't she?

I vaguely remember something like that

So why didn't you go back and check?

[Locke Lamora]

Yeah, you're just plain lying about your thought process now. You wouldn't 'vaguely remember' that Farside claimed VT if you KNEW she had already claimed and were deliberately waiting for massclaim to see if she claimed something else. I think that's enough for me to:

Vote: Twistedspoon

[Locke Lamora]

My guess is you have a one-shot role, and realised once you said it that you couldn't claim your actual role because it was just as likely/more likely to be a scum role. Maybe you're even a rolecop (wouldn't be surprised if that's the case with the vig, masons and the other cop).

And there's nothing wrong with you wanting to catch scum like that. My point is you acted like you weren't even sure that she had claimed. You were either pretending to be casual about it when you replied to me, which is scummy because you're acting like you know less than you actually do, or you legitimately weren't sure, which means you're lying about it being a deliberate strategy to wait for Farside's claim. In either scenario you're lying.

[Locke Lamora]

Oh, and as for the 'implications of my vote', aren't you at L-3? Not worried about that.

[Locke Lamora]

Multiple reasons:

1. NE was BY FAR your most plausible investigation target. Had I been in the game at that stage, I would have been all over you for not investigating NE because it would have been totally inconsistent with your suspicions D1.

2. You needed a result to make your ability convincing, and a guilty result was by far the most likely to convince the town that your role was legit. An innocent or a roleblock result would have done little to convince your doubters that you were town. A guilty had a far better chance of doing that.

3. Whichever one of you/NE got lynched, the other would have a huge boost in surviving to endgame, for precisely the reason that you, and other players, have repeatedly stated: why would you bus?

4. Getting an innocent on your buddy would be incredibly dangerous, especially with both Javert and Quilford still alive at that stage. Unless you successfully talked town into a couple more mislynches with a limited suspect pool as it was, chances are that PoE would have led people into looking at you or your buddy, and once one is suspected, you're both suspected. I don't know that I've ever seen scum claim innocent on other scum; the risk of two guaranteed scum lynches if one of you gets caught far outweighs the reward.

Plus you still haven't explained your contradictory attitude towards Farside's claim. When I asked the question about Quilford's list, did you already know that Farside had claimed or not?

[Locke Lamora]

Let me make this clear: I don't suspect you because you got a guilty. It's the main thing in your favour for being town. You asked why you would have done certain things as scum. I told you. If you want to play that game, everything is WIFOM. There are reasons that scum can do just about everything. For instance, I just finished a game in which one of the scum had a daykill and shot his buddy on D1, then rode that through 9 days to win the game without doing any scumhunting, all whilst faking a post restriction. It was an incredibly risky play that I've never seen before and all but one or two of the players had him down as confirmed town for the entirety of the game, so it ended up working out perfectly. In this situation, I think you and NE bussing is a hell of a lot more plausible than that. So you're wasting your time with the 'why would I do this as scum?' arguments because I've considered that, and I still am.

So, to clarify: I suspect you because your thought process doesn't read as genuine to me and prior to the claim, several points from NE's ISO stand out to me as the actions of a buddy, particularly that quote about Klazam. And you STILL haven't answered my question.

[Locke Lamora]

Exactly that. You weren't wrong about what I spotted. You just acted as though you weren't sure, which you apparently weren't, but then claimed that you were waiting so that you could catch Farside in a lie, which you would only have been able to do if you actually knew what her claim was in the first place. The two don't fit. The thing is, you didn't do what I would expect from a townie. I was reading back what I missed while I was V/LA and I noticed that Farside claimed. That was after I had already seen Quilford's claim list. You had the reverse experience: you were obviously here when Farside claimed, and you've admitted that you thought Farside had at least 'softclaimed' on D3 when you saw Quilford's list. Know what the first thing I'd do after having that thought is? Check Farside's ISO to make sure I was right. Then I might think about waiting to catch Farside in a lie, once I was sure that I had the claim right (Farside is pretty experienced and I think this would have been kind of pointless, but that's besides the point here). You did nothing of the sort. This does not indicate an inquisitive town thought process. It indicates scum who already knew what everyone's alignment was and had little interest in checking up on a claim already made.

So you get why I find you scummy now?

Farside: honestly, I suspect TS a lot more having reviewed NE's ISO, which is why I didn't really cover it at the time. I would have to say Duplicity's slot makes most sense as a buddy for me, particularly the Oso part. Read the post where he puts TS at effective L-1 (ISO 33). The tone is almost 'hey, you're not doing anything, I've got no choice but to call you scum'. I find Prosaurus' dearth of scumhunting to be scummier, but I'm having a hard time telling if he's just a newbie or he's playing the newbie card. Regardless, he seems like a less likely buddy.

[Locke Lamora]

On the topic of TS having other plausible investigations: first of all, it's a perception thing. Rhinox might have said he'd have bought another investigation, but if the scumteam believed that NE was TS's most plausible investigation target then it doesn't matter that other people thought otherwise at the time, because they had no way of knowing. And secondly, I'll have to reiterate that those points were a response to TS's 'why would I do that as scum?' pleas. They're not reasons why I suspect TS. They are reasons why NE/TS could have decided that a bus was the best course of action at that point.

Prosaurus: do you not see my point in 917? I have explained this quite clearly to TS. He said he was waiting to catch Farside in a trap

but he wasn't even sure whether Farside had claimed, let alone what she'd claimed

. It's not a townie attitude to not check that. My guess is he knew exactly what Farside claimed, decided not to bring it up so he didn't look like he was paying as much attention and then acted all casual when I questioned the list and pretended to 'vaguely remember' the claim.

[Locke Lamora]

All those things go in his favour. My problem is he just does not seem genuine. The Farside thing is just the latest of a number of posts from him which do not sound like someone being honest and open about their thoughts on the game. Do you have any thoughts on my question about Open 292? It seems pretty pertinent to me.

[Locke Lamora]

It's not about being a bad one-shot cop. NE was a good investigation, and if you really are a cop, I have no problem with that investigation. I'm just not getting the impression that you're genuine in your posting from your tone; your 'vaguely remember' screams of trying too hard to look casual, you made a post on D1 (which I quoted yesterday) that looked like you knew Javert was a legitimate 1-shot vig and now you're trying to pressure me out of suspecting you by saying my perception of 'genuine' is going to lose the game. Guess what? This game is all about perceptions. There are three other townies here. If we lose the game, it's not going to be solely because I think you don't sound like you're being honest. And hey, if you are both town and being honest that you thought Farside had claimed but you didn't bother to go back and check despite wanting to catch her in a lie then yeah, that's bad, anti-town play.

[Locke Lamora]

I mean that both being town and being honest are not necessarily a given. You could be scum and be being honest (in the sense that you thought Farside had claimed, not that you wanted to catch her in a lie). You could be town and be lying about your thought process because you think what genuinely happened looks scummier than what you claimed.

I think there was a need to check if you weren't even sure she had claimed, and you've said you weren't sure. Here's my thinking as town.
1. I see Quilford post a list that includes Farside.
2. I think 'hey, didn't Farside already claim?'.
3. I go back and check to make sure Farside did claim.
4. I either a) bring up the fact that Farside has already claimed or b) wait to see if Farside claims something different.

Here's what you did in 3 and 4:
3. You do nothing because you don't really think it matters until Farside claims.
4. You say nothing because you think you can catch Farside in a lie.

See the disconnect there? You're not inquisitive. You're not interested in making sure you have your facts right. You weren't even that interested in catching Farside in the lie because you so readily declared that Farside had already claimed as soon as I asked what was wrong with the list. You didn't even wait to make sure we weren't massclaiming - the two people who didn't want to were Farside, who you obviously think is likely scum, and me. Our confirmed townie did want to massclaim, and let's face it - if Quilford really wants to run today, he can. If he decides to vote for someone then it doesn't matter if the other three townies disagree, he has the controlling guaranteed non-scum vote. So your eagerness to give Farside the pass and say that she'd already claimed is again at odds with wanting to catch her in a lie.

[Locke Lamora]

Pro: I know he said he was going to wait. My point is, if he was thinking about catching Farside in a lie, he needed to know what the original claim was. Apparently he lacked the interest to take 2 minutes to ISO Farside and make sure he was right in the first place. I find that hard to buy as town.

Farside: what odds does it make to Duplicity whether they pushed yours or Maxous' lynch? Scum couldn't have won yesterday anyway. Are you saying that scum don't think of reasons not to lynch people? To give one particularly pertinent hypothetical, if the Duplicity slot is town, why did NE produce a townread on Oso during D1 when he could have easily maintained him as a suspect? I'm certainly not sold on a TS-Dup scumteam, but I think your reason for doubting Dup-scum is fairly weak.

[Locke Lamora]

Farside: scum do that all the time. I've done that as scum; hell, I even did it in American Gods mafia by giving reasons why I found both you and GG town, so it's pretty obvious why I think it's a weak tell. I do agree with you about the consistency, though. Something that's really making me doubt Pro right now is the choice of targets in the context of the NK. Thoughts on this?

[Locke Lamora]

Pro: so you'd say that your top two suspects going into last night were Farside and myself?

[Locke Lamora]

Yes, exactly. So if scum had designed the NK to make Farside/me look like the most likely scumteam, I have doubts about Prosaurus' motives in pushing that scumteam, particularly when Prosaurus' play has been pretty devoid of any analysis for some time now.

[Locke Lamora]

I'm looking at it this way: Rhinox basically stated two scumteams that he thought were likely. Maxous' flip eliminated one of those. Anyone reviewing Rhinox's suspicions would thus conclude that the most likely people to want him dead based on his suspicions were Farside and myself. If that was part of the motivation for the kill, I'd expect at least one of the scum to try and push a Farside/me scumteam. Prosaurus is the player who has most actively pushed this scumteam, without seeming to do much analysis of the game otherwise, and I know I'm town, so the combination of the the facts means that I have concerns about Pro's slot. Yes, it's all WIFOM-y, I just have a bad feeling about it.

[Locke Lamora]

Yeah, it's plausible that it had nothing to do with Rhinox's suspects at all. To be honest I haven't found much benefit in pushing any lines of questioning at Prosaurus thus far as he never seems to provide much back. My concerns over Prosaurus are partly due to what I found in NE's ISO, partly because I think he's contributed very little, particularly since the start of D2, and partly because he tiptoed round the NE situation without really committing himself. I'm planning to look at him in more detail to develop my read.

[Locke Lamora]

I have a townread on you; I think you've been more actively scumhunting and analysing than most players in the game and I find you more pro-town than Farside, and certainly than TS and Prosaurus, although the lack of input today (and yes, I know this is a hydra issue) diminishes that a little. I'm a little dubious about that post I stated from Oso but other than that, pretty town.

[Locke Lamora]

You've played this game long enough to know that just because something can create WIFOM, it doesn't mean we can't take anything useful from it. For some reason, scum chose to kill Rhinox over a confirmed townie. I don't think it's a bad idea for me to look into some possibilities that explain that decision.

I think Oso's interactions with NE and TS look more like a buddy than yours or Prosaurus' do. I don't think Duplicity's play has been scummy and on Duplicity's play alone they're my strongest townread. I'm still trying to piece this all together and nothing quite fits yet. I think there are points for and against pretty much every combination and two people still have to be scum, so I'm going over everything trying to make sense of it all.

[Locke Lamora]

I have a townread on Duplicity based on their play. Being able to believe a TS/Dup team was based on Oso and not Duplicity. Can I see them as TS and NE's buddy? Yes. Do I want to lynch them before TS? No. I do not have a definitive answer as to who I think is the scumteam right now. Once I've reread everything and tried a few more combinations in detail then I might be able to give you a better answer.

[Locke Lamora]

Heh. I reckon what's happening with the night kill is LL/FS (or maybe only one of them) has done this NK so they can say scum are trying to frame them. If it's only one of them it's good for scum because then a townie will be lynched if they're caught.

TS suggested that you might be scum because you were inexperienced enough to not kill a confirmed townie over Rhinox.

Heh. I reckon what's happening with the night kill is LL/FS (or maybe only one of them) has done this NK so they can say scum are trying to frame them. If it's only one of them it's good for scum because then a townie will be lynched if they're caught.

You do realize that TS is pointing to you as scum for the kill and LS is the one saying it was a frame.
Just out of curiosity why did you not notice this or comment on TS's WIFOM of the death of Rhinox against you?

I can't see TS blaming me for the NK in the last two pages at least. And if you mean LL then that's what I was saying...

TS suggested you were inexperienced enough to not kill a confirmed townie over Rhinox. It really wasn't that long ago. Do you think that the Rhinox kill is more likely to have come from a Farside/me team, or a team containing only one of us?

[Locke Lamora]

Sorry, ignore the first part of that; I quoted the wrong post first and then thought I'd lost my explanation so I wrote it again.

[Locke Lamora]

So what does that make the scumteam, Quilford? It's all very well for you to repeatedly show up and state that TS is town, but who do you think is scum? There are basically two halves to this, as far as I can see: TS's play has been pretty scummy, his scumhunting has been lacking, his motivations are dubious and his mindset does not seem to be townie. On the flip side, the NE situation is a very risky play for scum to make and would be an incredibly strong bus, particularly for D2. For me, the first half outweighs the second. So as confirmed town, could you help us out and put some more effort into producing some reads other than 'TS is town'?

[Locke Lamora]

Obviously I agree that it's possible, but at the end of the day coming out with a guilty on a buddy is still a risky play, even if you think it's actually the best play to make.

[Locke Lamora]

Fine, if we're not going to get anywhere until this is done. I'm a VT.

[Locke Lamora]

What do you mean, you have no choice? Don't you think Farside and Prosaurus are more likely scum than I am?

[Locke Lamora]

That's indicative of you struggling to scumhunt, not that Prosaurus hasn't done anything scummy. Your 'best case' can't be the daytalk when you're not even sure it's relevant. I'll show later that there are plenty of things that Prosaurus has done that are scummy. My main point in his favour is the lack of an evident scum agenda (which has been diminished by the push on Farside/me). And hey, why do you find me scummy? Because I think you're scum?

[Locke Lamora]

If it's not particularly hard, you should have got there well before this. You're honestly telling me that you can read Prosaurus' ISO and not find anything to make a case? Do you think I could be scum with Prosaurus?

[Locke Lamora]

If TS is town please kill me now.

[Locke Lamora]

Look, read that situation again. Do you honestly think that was a planned move? Aside from anything else, I think it would be a pretty big ethical violation on Farside's part to deliberately use mod powers to edit a post just so that EA could call her out on it and gain distancing credit. I know you can say anything can be used to distance, but it's a gigantic stretch to call that a distancing attempt.

[Locke Lamora]

No what? No, you don't think it was a planned move? No, you don't think it's distancing? No, you don't agree with my assessment that it's a massive stretch to call it distancing?

[Locke Lamora]

Can we just go over what you're saying here? You think that Farside and EA could have planned, in the pre-game (or via their daytalk QT if you're really still pushing that angle), that Farside would accidentally direct a comment at EA instead of Ender, edit her post using her modding powers, EA would fake noticing it, screenshot it, call Farside out on it and Farside would offer to replace out of the game because of it? Does ANYTHING about that situation look unnatural or staged to you? The fact that you're insisting that it could possibly have been planned is just convincing me that you're scum.

[Locke Lamora]

It's not beyond the realms of possibility for them to both be scum and it still have happened (from a hypothetical viewpoint I'd think it's pretty damn unlikely in any game, but that's not the point I'm making here). You, however, tried to push the idea that Farside and EA could have planned it. The point is, you are desperate to maintain Farside/me as a scumteam, to the point where you're ignoring the obvious fact that planning that gambit is utterly ridiculous (and completely against the spirit of the game, in the edit sense). You're not taking the point into consideration and thinking 'how likely is it that Farside and Locke are scum together?'. You're trying to twist the point into any possible scenario that matches the scumteam you're pushing. That's indicative of scum thinking their proposed scumteam is about to go down the drain and desperately trying to convince others that it's still possible.

[Locke Lamora]

I'm going to:

Unvote

while I think about some stuff.

Quilford: if you think Farside is the common denominator, vote for Farside.

Prosaurus: I'm going to take a step back and explain for a moment here. Farside said that she had accidentally edited her post because she thought she was in preview. Regardless of her alignment, I believe that is the truth. If Farside (or anyone) ever deliberately abused their mod powers in order to pull a stunt like that, I'd refuse to play with them ever again and I'd be making a case for them to be removed from their position. So no, it's not WIFOM. It's got nothing to do with her alignment and should be treated as such.

[Locke Lamora]

If scum had a investigation-immune godfather and a rolecop, for example, I could see that being balanced. I would certainly expect 2 reasonably strong scum PRs if that is the setup.

[Locke Lamora]

Well, given that we already have one cop and the masons confirmed, that's not really an argument that applies here as that rule has obviously been broken. It's a good point in the context of two one-shot cops and two masons being ridiculously overpowered for town, though.

TS: theoretically, yes, that would help scum a little. It'd take more to balance out the cops and masons in my book.

[Locke Lamora]

Quilford: here's the thing. The more I read Twisted the worse he looks. He doesn't even look like he genuinely suspects NE on D1. Look what he says when he hops on that wagon:

indeed, NE has gone under the radar for too long

I'm fine with this wagon. My vote on Javert is utterly redundant anyways now that his wagon is gone and he's claimed :/

VOTE: NE

Then after that, where's the scumhunting? He doesn't attack NE, he barely even questions him. It's all for show. NE is his top suspect without any actual suspicion. If there's a clearer indication of a bus than that, I don't know what it is. I see where you're coming from with the D2 interactions and it's why I've unvoted to think about this some more, but if we put that aside for a second, can you honestly tell me if there's anything else in TS's play that points to him being town? I could really go on a whole lot longer with examples of things that look disingenuous and scummy, but I'd like your unbiased perspective on this so you can tell me I'm not mad.

[Locke Lamora]

Yeah, because this situation is exactly the same as American Gods. Do you think I'm scum with TS? Do you have a case on me? Is anything here reminiscent of my play there?

And I don't remember you bringing it up yesterday. I've been back and checked, though, and it was after I had already left for holiday. In any case, I was more interested in my Maxous-scum theory yesterday and I didn't look at TS in as much detail as I have today.

[Locke Lamora]

TS: so I looked over your scum game that just finished, and my scum read just got reinforced. You basically bus your buddy hiplop pretty casually by doing a complete about-turn on your meta-defence of him. I also get the impression from looking at your other games that you don't consider yourself to be the kind of player who'd drop such an obvious PR-tell as your 1-shot comment. You now appear to be declaring that you can't even scumhunt properly, which, by the way, is really not a great way to convince people you're town.

[Locke Lamora]

So that Prosaurus doesn't have to complain that I haven't done it, here are some examples of scummy things Prosaurus has done:

Plays the newbie card to explain his lack of scumhunting, argues that something isn't scummy rather than being able to find something that is (there are other examples of this but I won't go through them all):

PS: Just did a proper read. But, due to my lack of experience/skill, I'm lacking reads on anyone.
About Oso, I don't see anything he did as scummy. Answering questions before they're asked is in no way scummy to me, it just saves posts really.

Hostile, defensive reaction to NE's accusation of active lurking:

Prosaurus is very similar: he voted for Javert and he has been active lurking.

I haven't actually. I have more of a life than being on Mafia 24/7.

Already trying to chain a scumteam together here, also implies knowledge of a 3-man scumteam:

I suggest we park a noose around Twistedscum's neck.

Agreed.

---
@Maxous: PATIENCE! lets take care of obv scum twistedspoon first, then we can work out which one of {

Javert

, Oso, farside22, Me=Weird, Necessary Evil} were scum on the easy to wagon ender. EA and ender are both town btw.
---
Question for you - why do the actions you are accusing EA and ender of make them scummy? In my experience, those things are not really things I see scum partners do, like, ever.

1) Why? He's doing about as much as I am.
2) EA+Ender+Rhinox seem to be banding together. 3 people. Hmmmmm...
3) If they are both scum, maybe they'd do that because they know it's uncommon and won't be suspected.

Points out that the claimed vig has been absent for a prolonged period of time, which pings my scumdar as throwing dirt on an easily provable claim:

Eh. No real evidence, but keeps denying that EA or Ender could possibly be scum.
Also, speaking of Javert, it's been over 2 days since his last post, hasn't it?

This eagerness to cast doubt on claimed roles comes back again when he reacts to the mason claim:

May I point out there

is

infact a mason role which is scum.
May I also popint out that scum can talk to each other, and put in a fake breadcrumb incase of a situation like this.

I'm not buying this mason act.

Actively wants one of them lynched/killed just to prove the claim:

The thing is, you are making this seem like it's impossible for scum to do such a thing, making everyone believe you. I, for one, won't.
I refuse to believe you guys till one of you is lynched or NKed.

Then his reaction to TS's guilty on NE completely dodges the issue at hand:

I still reckon EA is scummy, not to mention his vote hop bandwagoning.

Warns people to be careful about the lynch while still sitting on the fence. Thinks NE is scummier but puts absolutely no analysis into it.

Careful. Depending on who we lynch could change the whole outcome of this game. I say NE is scummier, but I'm still unsure.

Then this gem of a vote on Farside because 'nothing's happening':

Since nothing's happening, I'd like to vote Farside.
VOTE: farside22
That's L-1 incase no one's noticed.

In short, I see a lack of interest in scumhunting, eagerness to throw doubt on claimed roles when there is no cause to do so, and almost complete avoidance of the NE/TS situation for a sizeable portion of the day. The main things that give me pause on a scum-read are that he drops some howlers that are almost too big, for instance: asking TS if he is cop or scum; sitting on the fence when there's a guilty on NE. I'm finding it hard to see TS/Prosaurus as scum together, though, as I would have expected there to be a bit more in the way of instruction on how to react to the claim if the whole guilty thing was a gambit.

[Locke Lamora]

TS: my guess would be that the scum have a 1-shot role to match town's 1-shot roles. It's possible that you just genuinely thought Javert claimed 1-shot vig, as you said, in which case it's pretty much null anyway.

[Locke Lamora]

Sorry all, no internet access the last few days, will catch up in the next 24 hours.

[Locke Lamora]

Still catching up and reading some stuff back, but two things while I'm thinking about them:

1. Farside: I did have doubts about TS yesterday. I actually quoted a post of his which I am still very dubious about. Having said that, I agreed with Rhinox's sentiment that TS-scum was something we should wait to deal with until LyLo, so I didn't pursue it much further.

2. Anyone pushing a TS-me scumteam: do you really think that EA was bussing TS D1?

[Locke Lamora]

Hey TS, you know how the deadline got extended? If you're town, how about you use that time to do something other than encouraging people to vote for me and start trying to convince us that you're town? If you're scum, good job reinforcing my read.

[Locke Lamora]

Quilford is aware of how many votes to lynch, I'm sure. If I thought yelling at Quilford would help town win the game, I would. I am town, if I get lynched we lose. I believe my play has been pretty pro-town and I believe I'm getting voted largely because of PoE and NK speculation in Quilford's case, neither of which I can do a lot about. So yes, Quilford should unvote because I'm town, but I don't expect him to unvote because I order him to.

[Locke Lamora]

Ok, you're right. It's just personally frustrating for me because I've done a lot of reading back and analysing in this game to try to work out the scumteam and a confirmed townie has decided I'm scum based on reasons that are pretty much nothing to do with my play. Anyway, here are some reasons not to lynch me:

For you, if the question is whether I'm TS's buddy or not, I think it's quite clear from my play yesterday that I was dubious of TS and his claim. I asked you why you thought they weren't bussing on D1, and my questions to both Maxous and TS himself about the NE situation were also motivated by some doubts about TS's claim. I think my play today is even more obviously not that of a buddy and I think if I was TS's buddy and we'd gone to the trouble of setting up the NE/TS bus to buy him towncred, I wouldn't then come out and repeatedly cast doubt on that claim as that would be massively counter-productive. However, none of this is relevant to Quilford, as he believes TS is obv-town.

So, my question to Quilford is this: does ANYONE make sense as my buddy? Put it all together. I've just pointed out why TS/me doesn't make sense. Farside/me obviously doesn't make sense (which apparently you have forgotten as quickly as you realised). Do you think Prosaurus has been bussing this slot all game? Do you think EA was telling everyone to lynch his partner over and over again? It doesn't make sense for any of them.

TS: look, anyone killing Rhinox 'makes some sense'. Rhinox was actually reading and analysing the game properly. Now half the players can't even be bothered to do that. That alone is a good enough reason to kill him. So if you really are actually town, please stop talking nonsense and start helping to find scum.

[Locke Lamora]

2. Anyone pushing a TS-me scumteam: do you really think that EA was bussing TS D1?

Do you think TS was bussing NE all day 1?

Yes. As I pointed out previously, he never goes after NE like he actually thinks he's scum. He just parks a vote on him and then proceeds to put no effort into making a case or questioning him. EA, on the other hand, was screaming that TS was scum. Look how he reacts when TS doesn't even know where his vote is. EA repeatedly gives reasons why TS is scum and pushes on him hard, and actually starts the wagon himself. TS's NE vote is basically a knee-jerk reaction to M=W's case. There's nothing there that indicates TS's NE vote wasn't a bus. Sure, I'm biased, but EA on TS really doesn't look like a bus to me.

I have to agree with Duplicity on Prosaurus. I would have expected scum to take the easy route and just vote for me, or at least maintained the suspicion at the same level. It's looking very much like TS/Farside at the moment but I'll reread them to see how their interactions look in that context.

[Locke Lamora]

Are you talking to me, TS? My point is a direct response to Farside's question, and is that your behaviour towards NE D1 does not include anything that makes me think you're not buddies. You also treat other players in a similar way, by voting and not really following up on it, so in that sense, it's just a plain absence of scumhunting that reinforces my scumread anyway. NE was clearly your claimed strongest scumread on D1, so yes, the 'investigation' makes sense from that perspective.

[Locke Lamora]

I think I've seen all I need to see. TS obviously isn't taking this seriously and that last post is about as close to an admission of scum as I think we're going to get. He knows his time is up.

Vote: Twistedspoon

[Locke Lamora]

So do you think he's town, or scum?

[Locke Lamora]

I already looked over your recently completed scum game and determined that your scum play here is very reminiscent of there. So what are we missing? All you keep doing is saying that lynching you will lose us the game and that you don't know how to scumhunt. Guess what? Neither of those things are a towntell.

[Locke Lamora]

I'd like nobody to vote until I've had the chance to prove how utterly ridiculous it is that I'm scum. I'm guessing it's Farside, and I'll prove why if you give me the time.

[Locke Lamora]

There's one major problem with TS 'hammering'; there's a votecount

on the same page

. Anyone think he wouldn't have checked a votecount and the votes properly when they were in the previous 20 posts? I'd say it's plausible that he forgot it was 4 to lynch, except we'd already had that discussion earlier in the day when I voted for him. So there are really two possibilities: TS is an awful scum player with an atrocious memory who failed to read the very page on which he made that vote, or he 'hammered' for show because people were leaning towards a TS-FS scumteam. Given that they planned that NE gambit, the latter sounds like a distinct possibility.

Farside is also misrepping this slot on multiple fronts and way overselling her case. For instance:

-If you actually read my posts on D3, it's quite clear that I doubt TS's claim. But then I've explained all this already, so it looks like Farside has not read my D4 play either.
-She overplayed my Duplicity suspicion ever since I said it. I basically said that I thought Oso's interactions with TS looked most plausible as a buddy. I was quite clearly doing a lot of rereading and reviewing of my suspicions and I quite clearly stated that I found Duplicity's play to be pro-town. This was reinforced throughout the course of yesterday. Guess what? Inconsistency is not a scumtell.
-There are so many reasons against the idea of this slot being on a scumteam with TS. EA goes after TS when Javert still has a vig shot available and STRONGLY ADVOCATES HIS DEATH. EA starts the day by going after Oso (hint: this is not indicative of having knowledge of a planned strategy) then initially pushes TS (roleblocker) over NE (goon) after the guilty claim. The fact that I pushed for TS's lynch for most of yesterday tells you all you need to know. It would be a massive, massive waste of the one reason people actually thought TS was town (the guilty) for me to push his lynch the way I did. No doubt Farside will say this is all WIFOM coming from me. So I ask you all to read it. Read EA. Read me. Read TS. If you honestly think those interactions look like those of buddies, there's not a lot I can do to help you.

Right, back to rereading the game.

[Locke Lamora]

I'll get to that, hopefully I'll have something up in the next 24 hours. I think the fact that TS-me is incredibly unlikely is highly relevant to this discussion, though. I think the actions throughout the game bear that out and I think my actions yesterday alone are strong enough evidence that I'm not scum.

[Locke Lamora]

So here's the thing. I've been rereading D1 and I really don't get the feeling either Farside or Oso is scum with TS. Prosaurus is awful, but there's just such a lack of scum intent. I'm going to pull up some quotes and see what I can make of it. I'll have loads of time tomorrow evening so I'll have something extensive up then, if not before.

To answer the question of why I think TS wouldn't want Farside lynched instead of him; because it was apparent that Farside and I weren't scum together. That would leave TS as massive favourite to be lynched because Quilford is confirmed town and Duplicity and Prosaurus were pretty much town leans from everyone at that stage. TS's lynch leaves more doubt in the minds of town.

Farside: you seem to be fixated with the fact that I thought Oso was the most likely TS-buddy based on interactions, which is a fair assessment, and separate from the one that Duplicity's play has been pretty pro-town, and continued to be pro-town throughout the events of yesterday. You know as well as I do that reads can change, and you're familiar enough with me to know that I don't spell everything out for everyone all the time. So yeah, my read changed. It's fairly obvious even from the first post that the TS-Oso/Dup theory is not based on reviewing who's had the scummiest play, as I indicate by calling Prosaurus scummier. I was not sure who could be scum with TS. I admitted I wasn't sure who could be scum with TS. I'm still not certain who's scum with TS even now we know he's scum. I responded to Duplicity's pro-town play by having a town read on them. It really is as simple as that.

As for posts where I exhibit doubt of TS, the quote in ISO 9 is the obvious one. There are also questions in ISO 4, 5, 6, 10 and 11 that indicate I'm dubious of how NE-TS played out and that I'm not at all convinced of the claim or the role given the setup. I didn't focus on it as much as Maxous because I thought Maxous was a pretty good bet for scum, and, as I've said before, I agreed with Rhinox that TS-scum was something we could deal with in LyLo if it got that far.

Answer me this: why would scum-Locke decide to go all-out bussing TS when the confirmed townie was convinced that TS was town?

[Locke Lamora]

It's time for Locke's D1 quotefest! I'll spoiler this in a few sections to save you all the trouble of having to scroll down for several minutes. This contains quotes that I consider to be interesting interactions and things that gain town/scum points. This is not intended to be extensive, as I have already covered a lot of this, and I haven't bothered to quote some things when I know I've already brought them up previously. So, here goes:

Spoiler: D1 quotes, part 1

Rhinox post 38 I do this all the time no matter my alignment. How often do you see scum do this? What about players that are town?

Post 43 I get your reasoning on why it's scummy, I guess I just don't think about it in terms of covering my ass.
post 45
Funny enough when I do an RVS vote I don't roll a dice. I either pick a person who is a VI or someone I played with when I can't find a VI.
It's part seeing how they react to my comment and part just plain RVS with a purpose. I look at how they respond, if they respond, panic, non panic, casual, joking. It just gives me ideas that I put to the side and think about throughout the game.

Oso post 47 I don't see a contradiction. It looks a bit more jokey reading it. Ender's OMGUS reaction is a bit more odd.

juls post 48 Not a fan of following.

@twisted: Any scum reads from you? Anything standing out? Your post post 52 has people at null. I also don't see everything as RVS when 2 people are voting for serious reasons on Oso.

@Me=Weird: What do you see from EA that was scummy?

So far the person that I find scummy is TS. He didn't respond to what was going on the game. When things are going on he does a RVS instead of commenting on it.
Finally when asked about the reads it's null and nothing odd for Oso.

Next up. I don't like Jul's following of Rhinox in post 48.

unvote:
vote TwistedSpoon

Oso: how do you have a town read on TS? What is your view on the discussion between myself and Juls?

Farside makes an early push on TS for lack of contributions. Hard one to read, this; it's drawing attention to TS's failings, but at the same time it's an easy vote to make as scum to prod your buddy into contributing and then back off when he offers up something better.

..
@Oso: What is your read of TS so far?

Null for the moment. Mostly based on meta. The game I played with him was just before this one (Mini 1130 - A Fishbowl Invasion by Ninja Monkeys!) and he seems on track for the way he played there. He was town.

Newish, unsure, a bit directionless. Pretty much what I saw from him before. Your vote on him should wake him up though. Last game, votes and suspicions had a tendency to do that to him.

Similar from Oso here in a sense. There's more emphasis on excusing TS's behaviour, but the last couple of sentences are very much a push for him to contribute more. Oso gets more scumpoints for the fence-sitting and early effort to excuse TS's play.

I think it was IGMEOU = I got my eye on u. Having trouble entering the conversation twisted? How do you feel about the interactions between ender/erathos? me/farside? rhinox/oso?

yeah, thought it was IGMEOU
just seemed strange since I read EGMEOU twice
nevermind though

as for oso I see nothing particularly odd as of yet. I thought that He justified his reason and gave a counter-argument to support it. However I do realise that it isn't the strongest of finds from Oso, especially since it's so early in the game. It's a null tell for Oso, ender and erathos in my opinion

it's nice to see players like Rhinox and yourself are alert and reading carefully though. That's always a good sign. Like I say, the sooner RVS end the better

Only real post I see (Contains more than fluff). Don't find it scummy. BTW, what's IGMEOU? Can't find it on the wiki.

OMG, neil obviously gave himself the best role! SHENANIGANS!

Have no fear! Ender's here! VOTE: neil obvscum

Ender tells us to "have no fear". Having no fear in this game is tantamount to letting your guard down. Why do you want us to let our guard down, Ender?
VOTE: ender241

In the RVS, this is scummy how? I'm pretty new, please explain this.

Prosaurus with the first of many lacklustre posts that features no scumhunting and a couple of 'I don't see how this is scummy' comments. He doesn't consider TS's 'fluff' to be a scumtell, which suggests that he's simply not very good at reading the game critically, but this suggestion that he's too new to understand half of what's going on comes back to ping my scumdar later.

TS: What is your view of Oso compared to the other game you two were in?

in our last game Oso was town. He seemed town from day 1 and considered all eventualities and possibilities with many of his speculative posts and only when our town read on him began to falter, or when we ran out of viable players for the lynch did we end up lynching oso (we had a claimed watcher and a confirmed townie in myself, so oso became the lynch)

this is why it didn't surprise me that he included a counter-argument in his reasoning. Oso is just the player to counter the arguments of his critics before they state them I would guess. Of course it could be seen as scummy by some players, as Rhinox interpreted it as. But to me it's just reminiscent of town oso from our last game. As such, i have a town read on oso. But bear in mind it is a volatile read and is subject to change as we're only 4 pages in. The more pages we go through the more accurate our reads should get.

I hope that answers your question.

TS comes across as way too eager to please here and puts far too much effort in stating what is essentially a null-to-town tell with a caveat so that he can change his mind. Scum points to Oso for TS's cageyness towards his slot.

I don't mind being Day Killed,

why might this be?

vote: Twistedspoon

Farside's second vote on TS; unexplained, and immediately ditched in favour of an Ender vote. This is the second time that Farside pressures TS and then does not back it up with anything; it's more like a warning than substantive pressure to me, which is scummy. I would like Farside to explain why she didn't follow through on this at all as she doesn't give an insight into her mindset at all here.

@Rhinox

May main point is here: Basically boils down to what I see as slip. Several references, in my opinion, to him not believing Javert's claim but then acknowledging that he "..cant kill all off us."

My secondary reason: Javert posted here. Point #1 is close enough to what I was thinking of Ender's vote of Prosaurus that I didn't even try to put it into my own words really. Just quoted it and added agreement to it in my vote post.

EA has a post here worth looking at. Sheds a better light on Ender's actions.

At this point, I don't agree with EA's assessment though.

One other point of note. Ender may have made a soft claim here: Right before his NE vote

"I'll find out what he is tonight"

. For my part, I'm still processing that one. Could be awkward wording or an incomplete thought or a soft-claim. I haven't decided which one for myself yet.

It does look as if Ender is trying to draw Javert's kill right now though. I don't like that but until I think on it some, I have no opinion on it, not even a knee-jerk opinion of it.

Some spectacular fence-sitting from Oso here. I get cognitive dissonance from the last line; how can he not like Ender's play but not have an opinion on it at the same time? I'm just not buying that he has no opinion at all here. It's kind of weird phrasing in general; why be so explicit that he didn't even have a gut reaction?

I don't try to tie people together until at least one of them is already dead. Oso is less scummy than Twistedspoon, Prosaurus, and ender right now.

But you still think Oso is scummy right? That is what I read.
Why is what ender did scummier then Oso to switch your vote to ender?

It's the way he is presenting his cases thats off to me. When he attacks someone he presents it to the town instead of attacking the person outright and asking them questions. Am I completely off my rocker or does anyone else see what I see?

I don't see it

@Juls: It's not anti-town to agree with someone, I usually find scum using others views and buddying up in scum and I recall you doing that in our last game to another player (buddying up)
Nothing so far screams town reading you. Your case on Me=Weird doesn't make sense to me either.

I know some scum will gambit to look town. It's possible ender is scum with a gambit because he's at L-2 that he's hoping for someone to vote so as scum that he could hammer to neuter the claimed vig. But the first time doing it doesn't make sense as scum for there is no reason for the gambit.
hmmmmm,,,, I need to think on this a bit.


Maxous: You seemed like you had a theory on another player then dropped it and had a case on ender (that was already discussed) and EA. What is with the hmmm on TS then dropping it?

The last line from Farside is the first in the line of posts I spotted from her questioning people on a change of attitude towards TS. This becomes a recurring trend throughout D1 and I got the vibe that she was trying to make a point of people having inconsistent attitudes towards TS. Again, this is something that I consider a town-tell on the face of it, but more scummy given the lack of apparent connection between what I believe to be a scumread on TS and her opinion of these other players.

..
i can see a theme in this game, that everything is one-shot :/

Where did you get that idea from? I checked back back and unless I missed something Javert specifically declined to say if his role was normal or one shot.

Alright my role is.... One-shot cop.

I would say I don't know what to think of that except I do. I think it smells. If scum, he only has to sell one innocent that can easily be killed later. He doesn't get caught in the confirming more townies than scum can kill loop.

Have a considerable amount of work to do today but I'm not going to remove my vote yet. Seriously considering suspending my personal policy of leaving claimed PRs alone Day 1 in this case.

Pending a re-read to make sure I haven't gotten the wrong impression, my thoughts right now are that Ender has been playing in a way that would tend to point that he has placed a higher priority on his own survival that would be normal for just plain town. Points to scum or, oddly enough, town protecting a power role.

But the way he has been playing: Vote hopping. Very little reasoning or thinking at all, behind his votes. He's mainly been reacting rather than acting.....

If I can fit his play into his role, then I will unvote but that is going to take a re-read that I'll do during the day or after work.

First part from Oso is town points in my book. Several players skip over TS saying this, but Oso calls him out on this and it gives me an impression of genuine suspicion as to where he got this information. Granted, this could come from scum wondering what the hell TS is talking about, but I just find bringing it up alone to be pro-town.

Second part is not so good as we get a stack more fence-sitting. So Ender could be telling the truth or fake-claiming. Congratulations for stating the obvious and contributing absolutely nothing conclusive at all to the discussion in the same post, Oso. Yeah, maybe this is town just trying to make up their mind, but given that it's not the first or last time in which Oso provides relatively detailed comment with no conclusion, standing back and waiting as other people take stances wins quite a few scumpoints from me.

I suggest we park a noose around Twistedscum's neck.

Agreed.

---
@Maxous: PATIENCE! lets take care of obv scum twistedspoon first, then we can work out which one of {

Javert

, Oso, farside22, Me=Weird, Necessary Evil} were scum on the easy to wagon ender. EA and ender are both town btw.
---
Question for you - why do the actions you are accusing EA and ender of make them scummy? In my experience, those things are not really things I see scum partners do, like, ever.

1) Why? He's doing about as much as I am.
2) EA+Ender+Rhinox seem to be banding together. 3 people. Hmmmmm...
3) If they are both scum, maybe they'd do that because they know it's uncommon and won't be suspected.

Oh, Prosaurus. This post makes me realise that never have I given a player so much towncred despite the fact (or maybe because) they've done so many anti-town things. Let's break this down:

1. Prosaurus defends TS by

saying they've been about equally useless.

This is the kind of comment that makes me wonder why someone would play mafia. The only reason he gets townpoints for this is because he's basically saying he's as good a vig target as TS, and that's somewhat diminished with TS flipping RB.
2. So Prosaurus has no real scumhunting or scumreads for pages on end and now he's identified a whole scumteam? What I don't like about this is that instead of focusing on the point Rhinox makes (which is a good one about an easy wagon), he decides that Rhinox is now scummy with two other people.
3. Clinging onto his scumteam by providing a classic WIFOM defence. I think this is just null coming from Pro.

Spoiler: D1 quotes, part 2

Let's kick this part off with TS actually giving some thoughts (really, how did he not just get lynched or vigged? It's killing me reading back).

Right my thoughts from page 6 onwards; took me long enough :3

Javert's claim is easily provable. He already stated he would use this today.
Any doubts about this should be brought up if he "changes his mind".

When Javert first claimed I had assumed he would have used it by now. By the way he was swinging his claim around like a club I thought that he was going to use it soon. I guess it might just have been a ruse to stop lurkers lurking. Anyways, Javert, will you be vig'ing today still? If so, who are your scumreads?

Wow. I couldn't get on the site at all yesterday and now I'm greeted with a ton of new content. I'm getting caught up now.

then

UNVOTE: you're on now. As soon as your finished reading up, top scum please.

o rly? unvoting so soon? The slightest trace of NE and you unvoted, before any content of his too. Ah well, you've claimed cop, so i guess it doesn't matter too much.

ender241 voted Javert for not answering questions and Oso makes a compelling case for ender, but I don't think Oso is town and I'm not going to sheep his read whithout a strong town read on him.

What makes you think oso is not town (and therefore scum). You didn't really explain this and why you didn't include him in your contenders for your vote or top scum as Ender asked you to.

Oso, what i dislike is the fact that he says he is going to kill today. If you want to DayVig you should wait until we have pretty much confirmed scum.

I'll find out what he is tonight.

UNVOTE: VOTE: Necessary Evil stop lurking, start posting.

So are you a cop or scum?

And is there a reason why I should care about being Day Killed? I don't see one.

This post hit a bad note with me. If ender had accidently revealed his role prematurely, don't point it out for scum to find

claiming

now

means I get to actively enforce posting content.

Seems like a weak reason to claim vig so early; to stop a lurker lurking. :/
It's usually only millers that i see claiming as early as you did

Dayvig me then.

I don't understand why you posted this. to annoy javert, or do you not believe his claim?

4 strong reasons there why his claim is not false:

• No reason, that I can think of, for scum to claim just out of the blue like that, especially not a day role where we can see the result in-thread.
  
• He has committed himself in such a way that he can't really back out of it. So he's not bluffing about being able to kill. He can day kill.
  
• He has shut off his options. Rarely (I mean as in never) have I personally seen scum shut off their options as completely as that this early in the game.
• He never does mention vigging anyone who votes him.

From where I stand right now, Javert is exactly what he claims to be.

:goodposting:
It doesn't matter though really if his claim is false at this moment in time though, since he'll be making his kill before the end of the day

Hey Javert, you said you'd vig someone for 4 days without content?

Well Klazam has gone the entire game without content

, so you know what to do.

you want to vig klazam?
Wasn't he v/la

anyways, I don't like directing the vig. I can see scum doing that easily and with good reason to do so.

question: in theory might it be possible to have a daykill scum?

I've seen it in a theme game before.

so might it be possible to appear in a mini game? If so Javert might not be confirmed town even if he does vig kill today; especially if he doesn't get NK'd

Good game so far. Keep it up!

what the-
what is this supposed to mean?
We've had 2 PRs outed and no scum dead yet. We have no indication of how close we are to catching scum

Oh yeah, Twistedspoon is totally scum. Look at his posts between his Javert vote and his unvote. He doesn't attack Javert, he doesn't question Javert, he doesn't push the Javert wagon, he's doesn't do a single damn thing to Javert. He accomplished three things with his Javert vote, and those things were VOTE PARK, VOTE PARK, AND VOTE PARK. He was vote parking on Maxous earlier too, and he's already looking like he's vote parking on NE. I suggest we park a noose around Twistedscum's neck.

Why would I want to attack javert? Maxous was an RVs vote; better than voting for the mod like some of you guys thought it'd be clever to do
vote parking on NE? Sure, as long as someone doesn't outshine his scuminess in my eyes.

@ EA and ender are both town btw.

you know this how? Or does the unity my wagon provides confirm this for you?

anyways, I've run out of time for today :/
G'Night

Points to take from this: TS tosses some suspicion in Pro's direction for pointing out Ender's claim. +1 to Prosaurus. He also seems dubious about NE's 'good game' comment, but isn't really committal about whether he finds it scummy. Important distinction here, as his vote is parked on NE without any scumhunting, but he casts doubt on multiple other players (including Javert with the possibility of a scum dayvig!!). Calls Oso's points 'goodposting'. +1 to Oso. TS clearly thinks the best way to play scum is to bus your buddies, or at least appear mildly antagonistic to them throughout the game. I don't think he says one complimentary thing about NE's play the entire game. Complimenting Oso's play seems out of character if Oso is TS's buddy.

The other thing to take away from this is that TS still casts some doubt on

the other player who claimed 1-shot cop.

This does lend weight to the theory that TS is an awful scum player. Getting Ender lynched or killed was never going to make people view TS as townier, and he should have known it.

Pro - newb town - ugh so many things I want to say and put my IC hat on about.

First voting even anyone for any reason is good. It brings discussion and if someone hammers for no reason during the first few pages they are more likely scum.
Hence voting someone even during RVS is a good thing for info.
Pointing out a soft claim helps scum.
Seeing Javert respond to the same most makes me cringe if Javert is town as I see more scum motivation then town for pointing out the soft claim.
Also I have a question for you. Juls states you are in another game have you learned nothing on how to scum hunt or things that sound off/scummy or seen anything in this game that you see that feels or reads off?
Your 3rd point in your last point is a good start, it's more theory then anything but expand more.
Anyways reading Pro I read someone a bit lost.


Rhinox: The question you ask to TS about asking/specualing others roles. EA asked the same question as TS. Why point out TS and not EA?

- I think of Javert's comment about the questions in this game when reading Rhinox. He is very low under the radar, but when I see this and read TS I believe my first theory is wrong and I see more careful, planing and questioning from a town prospective

Actually, paying more attention to your iso, every post you've made from iso 11 to your current post iso 17, each and every one of those posts, the main topic of your post is speculating about someone's role.

Need to looks into this a bit

TS:
11. Ask why Javert claimed? I don't see this a problem with this question.
12. I pointed this out as well. I saw it as role fishing.
13. how is this role speculating?
14. is hypocritical, see iso post 12.
15. answering the question posed by ender
16. more role fishing exposer
17. and I see speculating.

unvote:
vote: TS

I still think EA is scummy. Klaz would be the person next on my list of scum. He's made some weak points in his read and view that do not add up to his past game behavior.
The points against TS far outweigh anything else. Role fishing, hypocrisy, more role fishing and floating by with no real case on anyone.

Interesting one to look at from Farside here. First of all, Farside continues that trend I stated earlier about pointing out things people have done in relation to TS; here, it's Rhinox singling out TS over EA. This is where I start to get the impression that Farside is trying to tie people to TS; the problem is, I can't tell whether she's doing it from a town or scum perspective. The subsequent vote on TS certainly suggests that it's from a town perspective; the problem is that TS is being truly awful. His contributions are repeatedly vote-worthy, and Farside states as much. If it was more of a marginal situation and Farside was picking out TS, I'd be leaning strong town here. The fact is that TS is scumming up the thread with most of his reactions and is not doing any scumhunting on his number one scumread, which diminishes the power of this vote to give me a townread. I'm still giving Farside some towncred for this, though; the fact is that she's pushing on the mafia roleblocker on D1 with a vig kill around, and she even advocates Oso to vote him in her next post.

EBWOP: Forgot. @Farside, I'll take at look at TS. I haven't paid any attention to him so far this game.

Mild townpoints for Oso. Not paying attention to TS is scummy. Admitting you haven't paid attention to TS draws other people's attention to the fact that you're ignoring a scummy player, and with a vig kill around that's a doubly risky thing to do.

@TA. You can consider yourself at L-1 if you wish. I'd vote if we didn't have the question of Javert right now.

(As an aside, I checked. Javert hasn't posted anywhere on site since his last in this thread which was just a hair under 2 1/2 days ago)

I don't have anything original in my reasoning for your vote. Players have pretty much picked over your play so far and caught everything. Some things that do stand out:

1)Your posting lacks coherence. You are all over the place. No follow ups, no prods, no real pokes at players.
2)Votes. Same as above. The only vote you placed where there was a tangible and defensible reason was the vote of Javert.
3)Your vote of NE. Bogus reason. NE maybe wasn't posting as much as others (he[NE] even indicates as much) but his posts generally have content in them. They aren't fluff posts and he isn't posting just to keep his name active in the thread.
4)We are 12 pages and 10 days into the game and you have done absolutely nothing other than just stay active. You haven't made an attack or case of your own. Hell, you haven't even tried to borrow a decent case and reword it. Pretty much active lurking and with your NE vote, I'll have to throw in with EA and add vote parking as well.

The above pretty much, at least in my mind, takes you(Twisted) out of the unsure/null/newish player category and into Scum.

This is a post I cited previously to Farside to indicate why I thought Oso was the most plausible scum with TS. He declares intent to put him at L-1 with a post that basically grudgingly admits that everyone has been right about all the terrible things in TS's play. I read it again and again and it just sounds more like a coaching post. All four of these things indicate what TS would need to do in order to move himself back out of the scum category, and frankly, when reading this, it's hard to imagine just why Oso would have missed all of this.

..
There is something off between Rhinox, Erratus and Ender. Having a CC for Ender means his period of grace is over.
Unvote
vote:Ender241
..

Not that I disagree completely, I had and have some reservations about Ender BUT, how do you figure that TS's role is a direct counter-claim to Ender? I mean, they are identical but if the post of TS's you pointed out is a correct assumption based on what TS already knew about the set-up(his role). Having 2:1-Shot Cops isn't a real stretch.

I'd like more input on how Ender is automatically more scummy than TS because if you disregard their claims, both don't look very good but TS wins in the "scummiest" category hands down.

Point being, if you give TS a pass based on role alone, then you pretty much have to do the same with ender. Their roles are automatically mutually exclusive.

Also:@Maxous.

"There is something off between Rhinox, Erratus and Ender."

Gut? Or do you have references you can use to at least give us an idea of why you think the interactions between the three are off.

I think I'm leaning town on this post because Oso basically points out to Maxous that if he's going to suspect either of the cop claims, it should be TS, not Ender, given that TS is far scummier. He does somewhat reduce his townpoints by leaving himself open to follow Maxous' reasoning on Ender if need be, although not by much.

..
b) TS is just dripping with scum, but his claim fits with his speculation about a one-shot themed game and it looks like we're going to give him at least a night anyway. I wouldn't loose any sleep if he was killed/lynched, but if the rest of you are moving on, I'm fine with that.
UNVOTE: Twistedspoon

Oddly enough, after going back after TS's claim, I feel better about Ender's claim and TS's claim.

TS's "1-Shot Theme" comment makes more sense now. TS knew his role (if you grant that he is true claiming) and saw Ender's claim and made the assumption that all roles are 1-shots, it even makes his comment that he thought Javert had claimed one shot as well more understandable.

I too will wait on Javert before doing much more of note. 3 claims on D1 is fairly unusual in my experience. That all 3 seem to be PRs...I don't think I have ever seen that happen in a game I have been in before.

Part of this is pro-town in mindset, in that he's obviously thinking in the same way about TS as Quilford was when he was trying to defend TS with the speediness of the 1-shot comment, and the same way EA did when he did that about-turn on TS. The last couple of lines ping my scumdar again, though. It's such a cop-out '1 of these 3 are scum' type comment that makes absolutely no commitment whatsoever to who might be lying, and I've seen these many times from scum as an excuse for a contribution that involves no analytical effort.

Javert: Fair enough.

Let me be on record saying that i believe all three claims (D-Vig, and cops) that has been made today.

Also:

unvote vote Prosaurus

I no longer feel sure that M=W is scum. PS is the next most scummiest in my eyes.

Reasons????

FoS: farside22. Experience cuts against you here. I find it hard to believe you are really propounding the whole “it is antitown to point out an obvious breadcrumb and force a clarification.”

I don't ever agree with outting a PR. If I see something in thread I'm not going to point it out as I feel that information helps the scum team more then town.
I've hid information on PR's many times seeing as scum most of the time miss underling hints or worry about a doctor in the game.
But each claim, if there is a doctor, helps narrow down the field for the scum.

EA: How is ender's play any better then TS? Would you put them under the same category with lack of context?

Honestly I can't see 2 one shot cops. I've never heard of it. Juls broken down the possibilities, but I wonder do you (Juls) have a view on any one of those possibilities between the two players?

The last lines get Farside some townpoints. If Farside is scum, she'd know TS was bluffing, and making statements like this would lead to the finger being pointed at TS as soon as Ender flipped.

EA: Why are you ignoring Klaz who is pretty much doing next to nothing when it comes his reasoning? I see you mentioned this with Pro.
I see Pro at least going thru what everyone is saying and replying the the case against him.
Klaz on the other hand I feel. His reason's for voting for Pro was for role fishing but he doesn't say anything about TS who was doing the same thing. I have to wonder when people leave out those who when you look at their post and doesn't comment on them.

Also when he looks into TS he states the following:

I'm ambivalent on TS. Null for now.

vote Me=Weird

I really don't get this at all.

Vote: Klazam

@Oso: I can ask you the same. How did you get null read from TS, what changed your mind on him when you were willing to put him at L-1?

Third and fourth time that Farside questions people about their interactions with TS, and there's a definite implication that Klazam is attacking Pro for something that TS is also doing but Klaz is ignoring. So now this is where I'm getting a bad vibe. The only reason that makes sense is if Farside thinks Klazam has a reason to treat those two players differently. Either she thinks he's over-focused on Pro because they're buddies, or he's ignoring TS because they're buddies. There's no exploration of either here. Then we move on to Oso, where again there's an implication that Oso's read on TS changed because he was getting wagoned. You can't downgrade TS to second suspect and then continue to push on people for their attitude towards him. That's the kind of thing you do after a flip, not before. The attitude reeks of knowing TS is scum already.

..
@Oso: I can ask you the same. How did you get null read from TS, what changed your mind on him when you were willing to put him at L-1?

Um, I don't have a null read on him. He's is still firmly in my suspect list along with ender. Except for their claims.

Willing to give them both a night to see what they do with them. I would refer to this post, Those are still valid reasons for suspecting Twistedspoon in spite of the claim.

Ender I touched on again here.

..
Ender, because of the claim itself. I can see it as a great way to both avoid inadvertently having to sell more innocents than scum can kill and to help avoid a counter sometime after today. I know you(Rhinox) disagree with that but since we both seem to agree that lynching Ender is not the thing to do today, I'm not sure that matters.
..

Between those 2 posts, I mention 4 players:TS, Ender, M=W and Javert that I had some sort of read on. It was the rest of the player's that I put into the 'neutral/null' category because those are the only 4 players I have really looked at in depth. Something I plan on remedying later tonight, have plans for the rest of the day after I get my morning chores and such done. (Actually, the entire weekend has been busier than planned.)

Oso's position on Ender and TS is very difficult to discern alignment from. This attitude makes sense as town; if you're going to give one a chance to prove themselves, you do it for both. The problem is, it's a really easy out as scum. Oso-scum knows that Ender is a legit cop, so he can safely adopt the same attitude towards both players, excuse himself from having to put pressure on TS for the rest of the day and take things from there.

Oso: The last time you mentioned TS you stated you had a null read here

Now there was a case you switch over I was wondering why it wasn't brought up and how it went from null to scum

Ok, I get what you are asking now.

A lot had happened in the game since I gave that read. When asked about it, that was the read I had on him. Basically null since he seemed to be acting pretty much the way I had seen him act before and he was town in that game.

The reasons I gave for him being scum later in the game, didn't happen in the game I played with him before. He was willing to make votes and cases (or at least try to, even if it was just glomming to something someone else said he could legitimately agree with). He wasn't exactly what I would call decisive in his play in that game but compared to his play in this game, he was.

Quick ISO him in the game that is in the post you linked above, you will see what I mean.

This seems fair and balanced, using meta to justify his TS-read, it looks like well-reasoned pro-town play. If he'd come up with it earlier rather than when TS was already getting wagoned, I'd give him a whole lot more towncred for this.

Alright, sorry everyone for being away.

Top 3 scum from everyone.

Sure, You first. I'll help with your list by putting the first one in there.

1)ender241
2)..
3)..

You can put the other two in there at your convenience.

For me;

Me=Weird
ender241
Twistedspoon

in roughly that order. <actual vote still pending though as stated in my last>

This I really dislike. The vote should not be pending. The vote should be on M=W. Oso has stated why he's giving Ender and TS a chance. Just because he's declared he's running out of suspects doesn't mean he should be contemplating lynching one of the players that he was happy to give the chance to prove themselves. He should be voting M=W, or he should be working harder to scumhunt and push another wagon. This is fence-sitting again in a situation where his vote is a no-brainer.

Spoiler: D1 quotes, part 3

So your basic point there is that I advocated a no-lynch after a vig? Why didn't you bring this up when I made the suggestion if it was so all fired scummy.

The first part, I leave it to the folks in the game to iso me in relation to both Ender's and TS's claim. You will see it basically boils down to leaving the claimed roles alone to give them a chance to give us something but when asked directly about my reads, neither ender nor TS ever left my scum list. The just got put into a wait and see list.

The quote of mine you used up there:

(Yes, I believe that one of Ender and TS is absolutely telling the truth. Plus a leaning, or just a hope maybe, that both are true).

Pretty much sums up exactly what I was thinking and hoping at the time I made that post. Still am actually which is why I'm not going to advocate a TS lynch today

This is after Ender has been vigged, and maintains why I feel bad about the previous post where he isn't committing to a M=W vote. If this is his attitude towards TS, a 'pending' vote should not have been necessary. The M=W vote should have been instant, and the fact that he still doesn't want to lynch TS, even knowing that Ender was a cop, suggests to me that he was stalling when he was failing to vote M=W, not genuinely considering any of the others.

well I appreciate the case on oso, but i think his play in this game matches up with his town play in our last mini normal.

We'll see though. He's probably clever enough to appear the same despite alignment.

@Suarus: You don't actually need to unvote, btw :/

Preveiw Edit: 3 claimed, 1 Confirmed.

What do you mean by this?
1 confirmed?
do you mean dead ender or Javert? I wouldn't say javert was a confirmed townie. That would be a very dangerous position for d1. Although it's much more likely that he's a town vig, he could always be a one shot scum daykill or summthin.

also 3 claimed? Enders dead, so it's as good as 2 with me and Jav

-1 to Oso again here. TS leaves himself open to do a complete 180 on Oso because he's 'clever enough' to trick TS into thinking he's town.

@ Erratus

Why is it a lie? Or even bad play?

D1, two claimed, 1-shot PRs. Being willing to believe the claims for the remainder of the day, hoping both are true, while still being highly suspicious of the players making the claims.

I don't see the problem here.

But you said in the quote that you believed TS's claim. If you believe the claim then why is he part of your top 3?

Farside continuing the theme of doubting the interactions with TS. This actually reads to me like town thinking the same thing that I'm thinking now looking back at it; something about Oso's attitude to TS doesn't seem right.

*Sigh*
He thinks they're scummy. But they claimed PRs, and if they're truthful like Ender, it's better to lynch someone else. Therefore, he's

willing

to believe their claims, incase they're truthful like Ender. But they still seem scummy. Get it?

Oso, this is what you meant, right? Or should I be agreeing with EA?

Yes, that is exactly what I meant.

Quid pro quo

This for that.

Action did change, I did stop voting or attacking either one of them, based on the implied promised made in their claim: usable results that will help town.

Attitude did not and will not change, at least in TS's case now, until something tangible has been given to justify the conditional trust given based on his claim of 1-Shot Cop.

So now Oso is not going to budge on his (actually very non-committal) position on TS until there is a result, essentially. All this is doing is setting himself up to stall on TS for the rest of the day.

Bah!
Juls it wasn't a lurker hunt for me. It was his lack of reads and scum hunting. Plus I didn't like that when he posted those that were rolefishing he ignored TS.
God I feel like I need to burn my notes and start from fresh again.

Unvote

While I reread a few things.

This one cuts both ways, I think. Klazam was a relatively easy lynch to push, but I can also see town getting frustrated that a pretty anti-town player had just been confirmed town.

Well, I looked at the breadcrumbs Juls pointed out and they are there:

{1}

M

y (hopefully triumphant) return to mafia has arrived! {2}See

a

few familiar faces: Rhinox, Erratus Apathos, farside22, ender24.

{3}Let's get

s

tarted! {4}Hmmm...after reading

o

ver the first few posts, there is no one better to vote than....Vote: Rhinox.

{5}I know, right, not

v

ery surprising?

Except I think Juls was off by a word in the fifth sentence of her crumb.

Vote Twisted
{1}

M

ostly a random vote, if you know what I mean. ;D

{2}Hey

a

ll, how much experience do you have? {3}I’m really

s

hitty on D1, because I haven’t figured out how to play well on D1. {4}I’m hoping that

o

n this game, I’ll do much better.

{5}We can all hope,

n

ow, can’t we?

No reason from my end to disbelieve Juls. Neither have set off any bells with me since the game started.

My vote remains on M=W.

As to NE, generally positive about his play. As in low probability of being scum. He hasn't posted enough for me to have it be a really solid read. His posts don't contain a whole lot of fluff though. Did a quick ISO of him and all I can see is a lack of posting from him. He does make cases and place votes, his posts have thought put into them.

+1 to Oso for checking the breadcrumbs. Kind of a risky post for scum to make about NE too, so leaning slight town on that.

I am convinced by the breadcrumb
Oso is still a null read to me though

NE is already my vote, so I'm cool with keeping it on him (for now at least)

I was slightly surprised when you claimed masons though. I had (wrongly)assumed all PRs were 1-shot by now :/

Just a little thing here; TS feels the need to respond to EA's insistence that Oso is scum. This gives Oso a scumpoint because TS doesn't have a claimed null read on Oso. He has a claimed town read on Oso. It's the little inconsistency that makes me wonder if TS is playing it safe with Oso.

May I point out there

is

infact a mason role which is scum.
May I also popint out that scum can talk to each other, and put in a fake breadcrumb incase of a situation like this.

This casting doubt on the masons is something I brought up multiple times in my Prosaurus ISO, so I won't go over it all again. Needless to say I think it's pretty scummy, and it does not match at all with the attitude Pro gave off earlier in the game, which was essentially that he didn't understand what was going on and he was pretty inexperienced. You don't go from that to aggressively saying 'hey, the claimed masons are definitely NOT confirmed town'.

I'm reevaluating the main 3 that people are talking about.

Oso - I would not lynch Oso. Although I found EA's point interesting it does not outway the scum hunting, questioning and POV's that oso has displayed today. He's evulated many people in the game and brought up cases that ring town to me.

NE: I don't care much for NE's reason's for finding MW scummy. Their weak tells (on is a stregth at best). He has found TS scummy most of the game and he defended his reasoning for his vote on ender well. However I see no strong scum reads coming from him.
MW - I have many issues with MW recently. He has called Oso town most of the day but when EA brings up a point he states the follow:

Maxous, can you please consolidate why you think I'm scum into one post. Thanks.
I can see Oso as an alternate lynch, seeing as how EA made a good point about believing the claims and still suspecting them.

He also barely mentions Klaz all day but has no problem jumping on the BW here:

Hm. I don't entirely approve of the ender kill.
Post #244: Klazam attacked me and prosaurus for "role-fishing". Scum often look for townies doing common "scumtells" that are so widely known, scum don't actually do anymore. And thus useless as scum-tells.
This, combined with not providing much reasoning for his votes, lots of short, content sparse posts and scum vibes, makes me think he's scum. He seems like the most likely of my scumspects to get lynched, and I don't like wasting my vote, so

Unvote, Vote: Klazam

Also he made a case on NE here but NE never stated it was rediculous and when he had stated something about Ender it was during the RVS discussion.
Finally he is attack on Pro looks scummy as I feel Pro is newb asking question and trying to figure things out but he spins it more into something scummy.

vote: Me=Weird

In short I find MW and NE scummy for different reasons. I find MW's post more scummy as I see him pushing on easy lynches and following BW without much reason.

Farside's choice of vote at the end of the day. You can see my thoughts on this in a previous ISO; the quick version is that Farside overplays the NE suspicion in the summary, which doesn't match the content of the post.

prosaurus and Oso are wildcards for me today. I'll give them a pass
The masons are forever unlynchable until proven otherwise
Javert gets a pass for the unlikelihood of a scum day vig in a mini normal. However I want to see him post again
NE and MW are the only remainders that i don't have town reads on. I'll live with one of their lynches today. I might later switch to him if his lynch becomes more feasible, but I'll stick with NE for the timebeing

Not sure what TS means by 'wildcards' here, but it sure as hell pings my scumdar that he decides to excuse both of them based on nothing at all. -1 to both.

I don't expect everybody to understand why I suspect MW. It's based mainly on the way he questioned Maxous. It's something I've done as scum before and I can see MW doing it in the situation he is in. It surprises me that you express this reservation and are still comfortable enough with the MW wagon to vote him in the same post.

This is based on the 3 main suspects for today. Your post, reaction and comments on ender rang truthful. I find your lack of push on anyone not already mentioned disturbing and would like a full view on everyone in the game from you.
MW however has done is follow BW's at least twice I have seen. He never mentions Klaz or Oso (expect to call Oso town) but has no issue voting him. That doesn't match up under any circumstance.

Reads a little like a prod to NE to contribute again. Very mild scumread.

Vote: Twistedspoon

.

Still doubt we would happen to wagon two 2-Shot Cops one after the other, and Twistedspoon has spent his last several posts (as well as posts before I used my shot) to try to undermine me as opposed to hunting scum.

Uhhh, wut?

Let's see. Javert claims, let Javert prove his claim as it is easily provable.

Ender claims PR, give him a chance to show us he's not lying.

TS claims PR and it's the same as Ender's but both are one shots so not a direct counter claim as there could be two one shots of the same type in a game, give him a chance to show us he's not lying.

Juls claims for herself and Klazam, so unusual a claim that no direct proof is really needed by players but like Javert's, easily provable if one of them shows up dead at some point.

Take this up again tomorrow Javert, after a night to at least give TS a chance to prove his claim.

Now Oso is firmly on the side of saying that TS is NOT getting lynched. Hey, where was this when he was 'pending' his vote? Scumpoints.

Take this up again tomorrow Javert, after a night to at least give TS a chance to prove his claim.

what do you mean prove? say, what if i was roleblocked etc.

and Twistedspoon has spent his last several posts (as well as posts before I used my shot) to try to undermine me as opposed to hunting scum.

how?
when have i tried to undermine you? I asked where you'd gone etc.

[/quote]

And finally, TS gets an excuse in just in case he can't come up with a result. The fact that this response is to Oso gives him mild townpoints, just because I can see scum-TS worrying that Oso is going to change his mind if there's no result.

Conclusions:

Prosaurus: does not review TS's play. At all. It's quite astounding how he manages to repeatedly ignore TS scumming up the thread, actually, and he's pretty much the same with NE. I don't really know what to make of this extreme avoidance, but the fact that Pro's scumhunting is generally way off base does muddy the waters somewhat.

Farside: I'm kind of going back and forwards on this one. There are multiple pushes on TS, which give me an overall townread, but I perceive a lack of follow-up on the slot at times which makes me a little more worried. Overall I get a stronger townread than the other two do based on interactions, but the repeated questions based on TS with a lack of connections being drawn almost look as though Farside wants people to think that other players are being inconsistent towards TS without drawing that conclusion herself, and that I don't like.

Oso: not feeling good about this slot at all now. It's the hesitation over the vote followed by the sudden adamance that TS is not getting lynched that does it for me. It doesn't make sense for Ender to flip 1-shot cop and for Oso to suddenly want to believe TS more than he did before. His timing of TS suspicion is pretty inconclusive and TS' interactions with him are almost entirely based on meta and suggest a desire to change his opinion at the drop of a hat. The NE interactions are not big, and Oso comes out pretty firmly with a townread, which does seem more honest (if misplaced) and reassures me more than his TS interactions do.

To come when I get more time: D2!

[Locke Lamora]

Sorry guys, not been able to get on and give this any time for a while. Will respond to points and get to my D2 review tonight, hopefully.

[Locke Lamora]

Right, some responses to Duplicity:

First of all, that post was D1 analysis. It was quite obviously D1 analysis and the conclusions are based on what I saw from D1. I believe that was clear, and I believe it answers a lot of your queries in itself. I'd rather not rehash the whole issue of changing my mind, so I'll just say this: if I see something in my rereads that makes me change my opinion of a slot, I'm going to be honest about it. Now, the more specific points:

On Prosaurus: I did not realise just how much Prosaurus completely avoided TS until I read back. You can see even from the posts I quoted that while there's plenty of focus on TS from other members of the town, Pro is not addressing him in the slightest. If you read it in its entirety it's even more stark. One of the main purposes of reading back is to review posts in the light of flips. So yeah, it makes me more uncertain about Pro's slot, because TS was really scumming up the thread and Pro was just ignoring it. I also don't remember saying that their avoidance made them almost certainly not partners, so I'm not sure why this is your starting point anyway.

On Farside: yep, I believed that TS was not so bad at mafia that he would fail to hammer even after being directly told earlier in the day how many votes it was to lynch, and with a votecount on the same page. My instinct when I came back and saw the hammer was that it was for show because it was so unnecessarily clunky and stupid in a situation where he had no need to do it. The logical progression of that is a TS-FS team, and that's what I was thinking when I started the day. Reading D1 again, I found Farside's approach to TS to be more pro-town than either of the other slots, a view which was reflected in my analysis.

On Oso:

1. I'm saying that Oso acted like he would still be willing to lynch one of the claimed 1-shot cops when he was stalling his M=W vote. Then one of them was killed and he came out vehemently against the idea of lynching TS. He gave no indication that he strongly believed both were town; I think the closest he got was saying he 'hoped' that both were telling the truth. So why did this change with Ender's flip? I've made the point once, but I'll say it again: Oso should have voted M=W when his vote was 'pending'. His reaction to the kill of insisting that TS should not be lynched doesn't match with his attitude prior to the kill. Therefore I think he was stalling for time when he was 'pending' his vote and he never genuinely believed that the cop claims should be left alive; he just wanted to wait and see how it panned out so that he wasn't seen to be coming out too strongly in TS's favour if TS got vigged. To put it briefly; Oso pretends that his attitude after the kill is consistent with his attitude before, and it's not. That's scummy.

2. My stance is that your slot is a lot more likely to be scum than I thought at the start of the day. The NE interactions redeem it somewhat, but the TS interactions are all kinds of scummy. That clear enough for you?

Will work on D2 tonight and tomorrow, if I don't get it done tonight.

[Locke Lamora]

Farside: you've played with me before. Am I always explicit about everything I'm thinking? Sometimes I like to see what people say without spelling out what I'm looking for. The point to post 9 is that quote was scummy. I read it and I thought 'wow, TS sure looks like he knows Javert is vig and he's doing a terrible job at hiding it'.

I have already explained why I didn't focus on TS, but apparently I have to say it again. First, I was pretty confident that Maxous was scum. Second, I was swayed by this from Rhinox:

Why are we even talking about TS today? We shouldm't even be considering lynching him today. If he's still alive in LyLo, then we can argue whether or not he's scum.

So yeah, I went after TS D4 instead of D3. I had a good case on Maxous on D3 and at that stage, the TS-NE situation was still buying TS enough towncred for me to second-guess my suspicions enough. That's why Rhinox's point hit home with me.

As for my vote...if you're town and you're seriously pushing that then I have no words to adequately express my frustration. I pushed TS about that statement because the way he tried to pretend he didn't remember was incredibly scummy. If you don't believe that then you need to read the game better. The more I read of his play, the more I thought he was scum and the less I believed that his 'guilty' was legit. So when he came out pretending that he was trying to pull some kind of gambit with you with a thought process that was quite clearly a lie, yeah, it pushed me over the edge into voting him. So it wasn't a weak reason, and I was quite obviously already leaning towards voting TS from what I'd found from NE's ISO and my previous concerns. Do I have to state every single reason for voting someone in a single post? No. You're capable of reading my play and realising that not only did I have multiple reasons to suspect TS, but my reason for voting him

in that post

is also much stronger than you're suggesting, so calling this vote weak is utter nonsense.

I could go back to why I didn't bring up the points against TS the day before, but it's not obvious by now then I'm just going to walk away from this game because I really can't deal with any more frustration.

Finally, I didn't vote for you yesterday. I was still second-guessing myself about TS, largely because Quilford was so mindlessly insisting that TS was town every time I brought up why he was scummy.

Duplicity: guess what? I don't know who's scum. If you've got a much higher level of certainty about that than me then you're either seeing something I'm not, or you're scum. So if you're forcing me to draw a conclusion, I believe the D1 analysis leads you to be scum. But no, I'm not by any means certain in that. If I was picking whose play is just straight-up scummiest on the face of it without factoring in connections, I'd say Prosaurus. I am most confident in Farside being town. That's all based on the D1 play. Is that clear enough for you, or are you expecting me to definitively know who's scum?

If I hear this 'why didn't you mention it earlier?' argument once more, I am going to break my computer. First off, I was a replacement in this game anyway, so I was always catching up. Secondly, you don't always spot things the first time through. Sometimes it takes reading it in the right context to notice something at all. Thirdly, Twistedspoon didn't flip until yesterday. So yeah, I didn't go back through the game checking all the connections between every player who hadn't yet flipped. Fourthly, I'm very clear about what I find scummy in Oso's attitude, and it's that he states refusal to lynch the claims but adopts this attitude more strongly

once one of the two is already dead

. It doesn't make sense. Finally, yes, I have not bothered to make a case on myself by reading back EA's interactions with TS. Do you want me to do that? Do you think it would be useful? No, that would be stupid. As is bringing it up.

Prosaurus: you're killing me.

There are so many more things I want to say but I don't think it would be productive to express my anger more vehemently. So I'll say this. Two of you are town. That means you really have no excuse to bring up points like 'why didn't you mention this earlier?' and continuously misrep my posts and arguments. You're so certain that I'm scum? Vote for me. At least then I won't have to spend hours reviewing the rest of the game just for people to misrepresent my points and claim that I'm not being conclusive enough.

I'll be back when I've calmed down.

[Locke Lamora]

First off, just want to apologies if I came off as too hostile towards anyone. I'm just getting very frustrated with the state of this game and the fact that I really don't believe I'm a plausible buddy for TS, nor do I think my play has been anti-town. Prosaurus is not helping either. Anyway, I'll try to tone it down.

Duplicity: I don't believe in bringing my personal schedule into things, so suffice it to say that I wasn't around the weekend before or the day of the flip, and I also had another game in day that I needed to catch up on because of that absence when I did have some time to get online. So yes, I came back, read the 'hammer' and thought 'there's no way TS can be THAT bad, surely Farside is scum'. I didn't have the time to put into more detailed analysis of Farside-TS connections at that stage.

So as for things not being brought up earlier: flips change context. Yes, by the end of yesterday I was confident that TS was scum. That doesn't mean I read through the game in detail looking for connections to his slot prior to that.

I understand that Oso bought TS's '1-shot theme'. Here's my issue. Oso has a scumlist of M=W, Ender and TS. He claims that he is categorically against lynching Ender and TS, with a justification that I have no problem with and yes, is why EA also bought TS's claim. My problem is that M=W is his number one suspect with two players that he has said he doesn't want to lynch, so there's no need to stall his vote. In fact, if he wants to make sure that neither claim gets lynched, he should be pushing M=W's wagon and arguing more strongly that killing the claims is a bad idea (which he doesn't do, when Javert still has his shot). The stall before the vigging followed by the vote after does not sit right with me. Perhaps the timing is just unfortunate on his part. I just don't like the way he's cagey about it until after Javert has used his shot, and the response to Ender's death doesn't look like a logical thought progression. He does admit that he is modifying his voting reasons because there's obviously not an Ender-M=W connection.

Farside: by the time I actually got the chance to read the game, NE had already flipped scum. The first thing I did was to look over the immediate reactions to the guilty result and see who pinged my scumdar. Maxous' stall looked like he didn't really believe that NE was town; he was very much just buying some time. The rest of Maxous' response to the day bore out my scum-read. He claimed he was leaning NE-scum for most of the day, but there was no indication of that in his posts at all. It was very much fence-sitting and waiting to see which way the town would go. He does argue that TS is likely town at L-2 but that's very much again an absence of scumhunting in favour of discrediting the lynch. If TS had been lynched before Maxous then I might well be here arguing why Maxous is scum with the both of them now.

As for answering a question without having all the information in front of me, I must have done that hundreds of times playing mafia. I'm not even sure what question you're referring to here. I've never seen a player who's 100% aware of every post made in the thread and all the possible connections between players at one time. You yourself have admitted you tend to tunnel on suspects at times. So I answer questions when I don't know everything there is to know because otherwise this game would be an endless sequence of players stalling because they're not 100% informed. If I have a read, I state it. I don't let a read stop me from reading back and confirming or changing what I think.

Going to look again at the 'guilty' situation and see if I can get some clarity.

[Locke Lamora]

Well, I try not to let frustration spoil the game. I've been in games where players have got extremely offensive and it's not fun to be in even if you're not the subject of the aggression.

Sure, I considered it wasn't a gambit. I still am. That's the point when I think 'surely TS can't be THAT bad as scum'. That's the only reason to think Farside is clear, though, if you buy that it was a legitimate mistake from TS. Given that he already pulled one ridiculous gambit, I'm unconvinced that this is an honest mistake. Having read back, I don't think TS has been honest or genuine about anything in this entire game.

I think it's scummy because he's fence-sitting in a situation where his suspect list doesn't indicate he should be, and Javert hasn't used his shot. If Oso makes a more forceful argument for not shooting either of the claims, then he's a) dissuading Javert from shooting Ender, who scum-Oso would know is a 1-shot cop; and b) making himself the target of more suspicion if Javert were to shoot TS. I guess what I'm trying to say is it looks too safe. He doesn't want to commit to a course of action, which, given the threat of an imminent kill, I think is a scum mindset.

[Locke Lamora]

And yes, working on the analysis now.

[Locke Lamora]

So, I'm having a look at the sequence of events at the start of D2 and how people responded. I'll post my detailed look at the initial reactions first so that people aren't waiting on me.

557 - EA comes out pushing an Oso vote.

559 - TS states his guilty on NE and votes for him.

560 - Quilford votes NE.

561 - Farside votes NE.

562 - Rhinox votes NE (L-1).

564 - Maxous says the votes are too quick and says NE should be given a chance to respond.

565-566 - TS with some nonsense like 'I think we have one here' and suggestions of a potential framer.

567 - EA maintains his scumread on TS and townread on NE.

569 - NE votes for TS and gives multiple reasons why he is lying scum.

570 - Farside cites TS 565 as a slip because he's doubting his result and votes for him.

571-574 - TS defending himself and Farside arguing why his post looks like covering.

576 - EA votes TS for his 'one-shot cop' comment.

578-579 - Prosaurus says that EA is still scummy and he's holding his vote for now.

582-584 - Prosaurus advocates caution in choosing because scum will have the upper hand if town lynches wrong first. Says if EA is scum, NE is too, and 'we're screwed' if TS and NE are both town, and also to be careful if they're both scum.

585 - Farside repeats her belief that TS is fakeclaiming scum because of his comments after the result.

586 - NE says that Farside looks a little scummy for jumping on the M=W wagon while attacking NE's vote at the same time.

588 - Prosaurus says to be careful again, and that he thinks NE is scummier but is unsure.

592 - Prosaurus asks about whether two scumteams is possible.

593 - Duplicity says they haven't had time to catch up but that they know it's NE vs Twisted so they'd like no-one to hammer until they catch up.

597 - Prosaurus responds to Maxous' question about Farside's vote hop by saying it had better reasons than EA's, which was just easy wagoning. Then says Maxous is 'probably right'.

598 - EA suggests that Quilford's reason for not believing NE is nonsense because his response would be the same as town. He reacts angrily to Prosaurus' suggestion that he is wagon-hopping by stating that he started the TS wagon and provides a list of quotes to prove it.

599 - TS asks why no-one has been lynched yet as he has a guilty. States a town read on both Farside and Rhinox.

602 - Duplicity's (Regfan) catch-up. Leans town on NE due to interactions, strongly believes that TS is scum.

Analysis:

Farside. The early vote looks like a bus but then the about-turn onto TS's wagon looks more genuine and is based on strong reasoning. I also maintain that scum can't be sure that there isn't another town PR they need to block, so changing her mind and voting for the blocker is significant to me. NE also suggests Farside is a little scummy here which slightly reinforces my townread, as does TS very simply stating a townread - this is incompatible with the way TS has senselessly bussed NE all game long. Once again, I find myself saying that if it's a bus, it's definitely the most pro-town looking reaction of the three.

Duplicity. Unfortunately, the replacement means that Dup completely misses the early part of the day and so we do not get to see their response until a couple of days after the claim. The catch-up also comes at a point where voting would not be a good idea, so the scumread on TS gives me a slight town lean, but I can't draw much more from this.

Prosaurus. I'm battling with two instincts here. One is that unless TS decided to do this on a whim without telling his buddies, Prosaurus would almost certainly have been told by NE and TS that this was going to happen, and that he should pick a side and react accordingly. His bizarre response of basically still focusing on EA is not what I would expect from someone who had been told 'you need to bus tomorrow'. His question about two scumteams also doesn't do NE and TS any favours if he is buddies with them. The contrast is that his reaction is not at all pro-town. He fence-sits, he advocates caution instead of providing analytical content, he suggest a mild scum lean on NE but no more than that, which is weird in a 50-50 situation, and he still tries to tie EA to NE instead of focusing on the matter at hand. The other thing that gives me pause about excusing him for his reaction is that we're willing to write him off as bad town. So why do we think he'd have to be good scum? Part of me thinks NE and TS could have said 'we're faking a guilty tomorrow' and he has absolutely no idea what to do about it. He can't fake suspecting his buddies at all. He certainly can't scumhunt, so I'm less inclined to believe he's town just because he doesn't exhibit anything that scum would do in this situation, because he also hasn't been doing things we'd expect town to do. They might even have said 'continue to play as you're playing' because it had enough people believing he was town as it was. This is yet another case of Prosaurus not fitting the profile of expected scum reaction but still somehow managing to play as anti-town as possible.

Short version for Duplicity: Prosaurus is scum.

[Locke Lamora]

Two posts that I came across reading back that mean I have a hard time believing Farside or Duplicity is scum. First, Farside. This comes right at the end of D3 as NE is about to be lynched:

Here's my problem. TS's claim comes after Jav's claim (the one shot isn't there but again one shot day vig is pretty normal) and right as ender starts to claim.
I also have a hard time believing in 2 one shot cops. I never have seen it and unless scum have a RB and GF or some power roles to off set that I have more trouble believing it.
He now has a guilty on NE (who he suspected most of day 1). Framer for scum? It's possible but I don't like TS's actions. Dup brings up a possible bus.
I could see this as TS trying to earn town cred by bussing his scum buddy. Then having to explain why he is still alive as the days go on put him into a trap. I don't know I would think TS scum would be smart enough to get an innocent on another player then bussing and leaving no outs.
It just doesn't make sense.
Call me paranoid in small part to a current game.

Welcome LL you would know what game that is in reference to.

This undermines the whole point of having NE and TS bus in the first place. As a parting shot before the lynch, it damages any towncred TS might have built up from it. This is particularly pertinent given that the likes of Quilford and Rhinox were insistent that TS was town.

Next up, Duplicity on D3 after Rhinox reacts angrily to the idea that TS might be scum:

small question, but how does another power role claiming mean that you'll finally believe me?

It does in fact the opposite, if there's another power-role claim I would believe your claim less, however if there were no other power-role claims I would have to rethink my overview on the game.

Anybody who thinks TS is scum better have a damn good reason other than a baseless accusation that they were bussing. Come up with a reasonable explaination for why the hell they would do that?

I'm not saying that I fully believe he bussed, becuase G and I are still considering everything we've read but I will say there is definte advantages towards bussing. It's not a "baseless accustation".

Here are reasons why bussing woiuld be advantagous for TwistedSpoon:

1. Throughout day one there was a high amount of suspicion cast towards TwistedSpoon meaning the likelyhood that he were to be lynched on day two were massive. If he facts a guilty on his partner one of the two following situations occur:
1a. Twisted gets lynched NE looks town in comparison and thus can breeze throughout the rest of the game.
1b. NE gets lynched and town believe Twisted to be legitimate as proven via your own words.

2. Bussing a vanilla mafia means that mafia keep their power-roles while allowing themselves to get onto the NE lynch quite early making them all look good in future days.

3. NE was already highly suspected, therefore guiltiing him just moves the chances that he were to get lynched at some point in the game from highly likely to certain.

Again, not seeing why scum would waste any towncred that TS had built up by giving good reasons why he could still be scum with NE. It's not like people are pushing for a TS lynch; at this stage Maxous is voting for Farside, Rhinox is adamant that TS is town and no-one else has given any indication that they think TS is likely scum. So I'm finding it hard to believe that either Farside or Dup are scum with TS and NE because they both undermine the point of pulling the guilty gambit. Leaning very strongly towards Prosaurus-scum right now. More to come in the next 24 hours.

[Locke Lamora]

A stack more quotes and analysis to try and settle this once and for all. I've spoilered again to not instantly fill up everyone's screen.

Spoiler: Day 3

Ok, here's where TS really starts to push on Prosaurus:

why on earth would scum have daytalk, prosaurus?

Do you know something we don't?

I want to hear from Locke :3

but yeah, the prosaurus daytalk thing could very well be a scumslip. No reason to assume daytalk at all

So TS's position here is that Prosaurus is likely scum for slipping with something that town actually has no idea of whether it's a scumtell or not (and it's soon argued that this should actually be a towntell). We'll come back to this later.

The next quote is probably going to be dismissed as WIFOM, but I think it's worth bringing up:

if another power-role were to claim during the mass-claim it would shed some light onto the likelyhood of TS's legitimacy.

small question, but how does another power role claiming mean that you'll finally believe me?

However, I do agree that both scum must have been on the NE wagon for NE to self hammer, otherwise NE would have let his partner hammer to gain townie cred

Vote: Maxous

so why maxous?

as for massclaim, I'm fine with it, but I don't think It's really my choice since I've already claimed :/

Massclaim seems a good idea since if we lynch town today, we're in MyLo tommorow. Remember that

So TS suggests that both scum were on the NE wagon. One of those was obviously him. For the record, the others were Rhinox, Erratus Apathos, Quilford, Maxous and NE himself. So I personally know for a fact that TS was lying here (disregarding the fact that NE himself was on the wagon). The rest of you can make your own mind up.

TS with a minor comment about Farside here:

Ugh, nyan cat :/

:3

yeah, Farside would be a fair lynch but massclaim would be nice too

TS has basically been pushing suspicion on Pro based on the daytalk comment for most of the day so this little indication that he'd be willing to lynch Farside sends me in circles. On one hand it looks like he's setting himself up to switch to a Farside lynch if necessary, but on the other this is very reminiscent of his attitude towards NE; basically saying that he'd back the lynch but with absolutely no scumhunting behind it.

A complaint from TS here:

I don't think they'd have expected people would discuss or believe the likelyhood of a buss, thus them doing it is optimal.

but you're doing it now, no :/

This one reads as though TS is annoyed that his bus has not worked because some people still think he's scum. Townpoints to Duplicity.

Here's where it starts to get interesting with TS and Pro:

Err... Why am I so scummy for think scum have daytalk?

cause it could have been a slip since scum don't usually have dayttalk and there was no reason to think they did :/

eh, or maybe you're just misinformed.

TS suddenly does an about-turn on his suspicion by throwing in that 'misinformed' comment here. This completely undermines the push that TS made on Pro in the first place and makes it look very fake.

Couple of interesting things here from Duplicity:

Prosaurus is town, towny town town. In this instance him thinking scum have daytalk is more likely a townslip than a scumslip. Standard site practice from what I've observed in my short time here is that scum typically do not have daytalk, therefore I assume it as the default for this game which means Prosaurus is likely to be mistaken about scum having daytalk and therefore town, this is in addition to all the other reasons to think he's town which have been discussed already. He is town.

There are a few reasons to think Twisted might have been bussing NE, I still think that the setup seems to be fairly broken if there's really a town 1-shot dayvig, two masons, AND two 1-shot cops and I can explain the numbers regarding why if there's questions. There's him being locked in a claim, there's the towncred that would come from that bus. But at the same time, I look at his day 1 interactions with NE and it doesn't really look like they were bussing to me. I'd file him as possible but unlikely scum at this point.

haven't really caught up on thread, was leaning town on rhinox, scum on farside, unsure on maxous, and had some bad doubts about EA. If farside is scum I don't think she's scum with twistedspoon, though.

-gorilla

First of all, I think the insistence that Prosaurus is town is outlined in a manner that suggests a townie mentality. It seems like a legitimate, honest analysis of what Pro's mindset could have been when making that comment. Secondly, we again return to spoiling the whole point of TS bussing NE. It's not as strong here, but this is just continuing to wipe out all the towncred TS built up despite Quilford's refusal to consider he could be anything other than town being the perfect excuse to ease off on TS.

More TS 'reads':

I was a bit surprised he was'nt roleblocked though.

so was I tbh
maybe they puposely ddn't roleblock me for this exact reason; so that you'd think this way

other than that I have no idea unless mafia don't have a roleblocker or the mafia roleblocker was roleblocked by a town roleblocker or something...

@Twistedspoon and Prosaurus: Number one suspect for mafia please. ^_^

tbh, I really don't know :/
I spent much of my time tunneling on NE that i'm outdated slightly with the rest.
Farside would be a reasonable lynch I guess. It looked as she was trying to protect NE in D2. :/

You can tell this is like pulling teeth. Now he's moved off Prosaurus completely; he doesn't even mention the daytalk thing. He cites his Farside suspicion again and actually gives a reason this time. He's definitely edging towards what he thinks is the most likely lynch here; townpoints for Farside, scum for Prosaurus.

TS steps it up by voting:

His play is lackluster to say the least.

How can you say my play is bad after I investigated one of the mafioso?

Clearly that's bad for you.

Gentlemen, methinks we have our second scum

VOTE: Farside

This is an awful, awful reason for a vote and is not actually based on Farside being scummy at all. This is the third vote on the wagon and looks like a scummy hop with any justification TS can think of.

Next up, TS defends Maxous:

Maxous is prob-town to myself

course at times like this I wish I had another investigation

@Quilly: any news from yourself? I want to hear from our confirmed townie

Not sure why TS would be firmly on the side of Maxous-town unless he thought he already had a mislynch lined up in Farside as well. There were ample opportunities to back the Maxous wagon and none of his play would really have prevented him from doing so.

Some Farside-TS interactions:

Questions to Rhinox:

What changed your mind from this post

I'm just slightly reluctant though. We've already outed 2 PRs today. I don't want a 3rd claim unless you guys think It's absolutely necessary that I do

Then I shall willingly do so

lol. I don't care what your claim is now. This post is scummy as hell. You're scum and I want you lynched regardless of your claim.

and this thought

ugh, I need to reread and figure out who my suspects are. Someone asked for a top 3, I don't have that right now. I'm not going to just throw names out as suspects without good reasons.

I was REALLY hoping Javert was gambiting, and we'd have an alive, confirmed town ender right now based on his reaction to being fake day-killed. As it stands, unless all of our PRs are now outed and scum have a RB and a GF, I'm suspicious of 2 1-shot cops in addition to a day vig. Think about it, if they aren't forced to claim D1, typical scenario would be they could claim results tomorrow, and they'd be 4 confirmed town. If the day vig is also town, they could take out a guilty result on D2, or the scummiest player without ending the day and progressing to night. That seems like a lot of power and a lot of cleared players potentially by day 2.

To day 2 believe TS and pushing for NE?

Maxous: I just reread TS in iso. I would like you to explain why or what about him you read as town as I don't see it.

I believe TS is scummy. I reread, and reread and I thought about it.
Here is my conclusion

Twistedspoon - 1 shot cop - comes off very scummy. His vote on NE originally was

indeed, NE has gone under the radar for too long

I'm fine with this wagon. My vote on Javert is utterly redundant anyways now that his wagon is gone and he's claimed :/

VOTE: NE

When questioned about his vote:

@TS: Again..why did you vote Neccessary Evil? Why is he mafia?

well it was mostly a pressure vote. Saying so would kinda defeat the purpose of it though. That and I haven't seen to much towness from him

After with some questions but no real push he states the following

I am convinced by the breadcrumb
Oso is still a null read to me though

NE is already my vote, so I'm cool with keeping it on him (for now at least)

I was slightly surprised when you claimed masons though. I had (wrongly)assumed all PRs were 1-shot by now :/

prosaurus and Oso are wildcards for me today. I'll give them a pass
The masons are forever unlynchable until proven otherwise
Javert gets a pass for the unlikelihood of a scum day vig in a mini normal. However I want to see him post again
NE and MW are the only remainders that i don't have town reads on. I'll live with one of their lynches today. I might later switch to him if his lynch becomes more feasible, but I'll stick with NE for the timebeing

None of this = a case. I never see a reason from TS on why he found NE scum. Rereading him I'm starting to believe scum bussing his scum buddy for town credit more and more.

vote: Twistedspoon

I believe looking at Maxous/Rhinox one of them to be scum with TS.

This push on TS comes while Farside is still the leading wagon, so I can see it being for distancing purposes. However, the question to Rhinox looks like inquisitive behaviour from a townie, and Farside's points on TS are all good ones. They'd certainly only serve to reinforce anyone's scum-read on TS, and at this stage of the wagon Farside-scum would know that any distancing is going to be taken with a grain of salt anyway.

Following on from that vote is this:

So I did some meta research on TS because I find his play the most scummy. I had to wonder if he was a VI or scum.
I noticed in his early games, which to say the least fit confusion and some seriously bad plays to later as he has played games he made cases and looked into things. So I don't believe TS is a VI reading his games.
TS: Please explain why you never made a case against NE, when I see clearly in your later games that you have made cases on people, prodded people and made points that a severely lacking in this game.

Farside further piles the pressure on TS by providing meta evidence; something that again is based on solid reasoning and just makes TS look scummier.

Prosaurus posts his PoE reasoning:

@TS

farside22

Maxous

Not as scummy.

Twistedspoon

Started NE wagon.

Duplicity

Null, not as scummy as FS

Locke Lamora

On NE wagon.

Quilford

Confirmed.

Prosaurus

That's me.

Rhinox

NE wagon.

I'd rather you asked my opinions on certain posts, or that kind of thing. You'll probably get a better response.

The total lack of actual reasoning is blatant here, which is pretty shocking considering Prosaurus has Farside as a top suspect based on this. The indication that Pro is incapable of providing his analysis in a situation like this is also increasingly grating on my nerves as I read through. I'm buying the newbie thing less and less and getting the impression that he's just not able to fake scumhunting.

Another TS-Farside interaction to look at:

I'm pretty certain TS is scum. He's gone too and posting elsewhere.

that's because I'm in other games, obv

if the only thing you have is that you don't like my vote on you and that I'm posting elsewhere then I'm still very much liking your lynch
also, I'm dead in my other mini normal so should have more time for this one. Quilly knows that already though.

Still liking my farside vote. Other players might be easier to lynch, but I don't think they're the scum. Farside lynch>lynch>no lynch

TS seems to be making the point that he's not going for the easy lynch, but Farside has been the leading wagon for much of the day so this strikes me as something of an odd point to make.

And now we have what may be the scummiest vote in the entire game:

Since nothing's happening, I'd like to vote Farside.
VOTE: farside22
That's L-1 incase no one's noticed.

I mean, really. Nothing's happening so he puts Farside at L-1? This comes after his masterful piece of PoE reasoning that I quoted above.

Duplicity states their reads near the end of the day:

@Duplicity: Have you explained why I am mafia? I don't remember it.

It's predominanly PoE combined with the fact that you were both G and I's biggest FoS when reading through the thread.

I'm going to step in here. I'm starting to get town-farside vibes. Rhinox is town. Pros is town. Quildford is town. Locke is likely town. We're lynching Twisted or Maxous today. End of, so I suggest someone moves their vote.

Setting up the Maxous-Twisted choice and ruling out Farside-scum seems like a pro-town move here. Would have been much easier to leave the Farside option open rather than argue against it.

Prosaurus makes his choice:

@Duplicity If we're lynching either of those two, I say Max. TS got scum lynched, and I don't see why he'd bus(That is scum lynching scum right?).

Prosaurus playing the newbie card again here and choosing Max over TS. Nothing too much of note in isolation, but will become relevant later on.

Duplicity again defends Farside, this time in more detail:

what has caused to to change you mind so late?

Sure, the recent town-tells I've gotten from farside include:
1. Her agreement in the fact that you're mafia, which is something I'm having difficulty shacking, ie. I don't think she'd buss you in this position.
2. Her lack of fight in preventing her lynch in this post reads as a town-tell, given the situation at the moment.
3. I read meta-research like the one shes done in this post as a town-tell.

Also, can I ask you how would scumflips from Maxous or Farside change your reads.

1. Farside scum-flip would lead me to re-read the entire game for a reassesment.
2. Maxous scum-flip would lead me to instant vote you tommorow.

actually, you've changed you maxous read too it seems from my quotes above. what has caused this?

As I previously stated it's mostly PoE related.

I'll try and get some reads up

Yes. Please. Do. This.

Again, this is pro-town, solid reasoning and seems genuine.

interesting post from TS here stating multiple reads:

hmm your farside town tells do seem somewhat genuine...

I'm having difficult imaginging Rhinox scum
and Unless prosaurus pulled of a very clever newb-town bluff with the daytalk thing, i don't see him flipping scu
Quilly is confirmed town
Locke is behaving townie enough, I have a better town read on him that I did EA. The slot is probably town. scum wouldn't tunnel as blantantly as EA did anyways I don't think
Which leaves me with Duplicity, Farside and Maxous. i remember Juls suspected maxous D1. without going into too much wifom, this could affect my read.

does anyone object if I try some VCA?

Apparently he buys Duplicity's towntells, but not enough to unvote Farside. The Prosaurus daytalk saga takes another twist as he suggests it is very much unlikely that Prosaurus is scum unless his daytalk slip was a 'clever newb-town bluff'. What? Earlier in the day TS was pushing Pro-scum because he thought he might have slipped about daytalk. Now he doesn't think he's scum unless it was a clever, deliberately planned gambit? The fact that TS feels the need to qualify this read with something that isn't true in the first place really pings my scumdar. He has an opportunity to clear Pro based on what others have said about the daytalk comment but he puts in a bizarre caveat that he doesn't even believe.

On to Day 4:

TS opens out the day by returning to his Prosaurus suspicion:

Rhinox dying over Quilford increases my FoS towards Twistedspoon for the sole purpose of Quilfords strong defence of Twistedspoon, given how yesterday played out I see Rhinox reconisdering his reads entirely because they all were based around Maxous-scum whereas Quilford seemed to believe that Twisted was town regardless of anyone elses allignment or flip.

but why Rhinox? Surely this could apply to anyone but Quilford? I don't really see what you're saying here. anyone but a quilford kill made me scummy? Surely even If I were scum I'd have still killed quilly as he is unlynchable. Please explain

anyways, the last point I would like to raise is my suspicion of prosaurus. I entirely expected quilly to die tonight, however I think Prosaurus is the player who, due to the least experience, would most likely leave a confirmed townie alive. I don't know, but I'll tell you I'll never forgive you all if prosaurus turns out to be scum after all this time, especially after his daytalk slip which could either be a genuine slip or a scum newb-town gambit

@mod

: was Locke still V/LA during the night phase?

What's getting me about this is that by this point, nobody wants to lynch Prosaurus. Quilford clearly doesn't, Duplicity has a strong townread on him and Farside and myself are both leaning town on Pro at this point. So why is TS coming out and making a point of his Prosaurus suspicion when he said he doesn't see him flipping scum as recently as the end of D3? I think he's making a point because he's distancing again. TS-scum is apparently obsessed with this as a scum tactic, and there's absolutely no logical reason for him to push a Prosaurus lynch as a mislynch. It would be much more sensible to push a Farside or me lynch because he'd actually get some traction with those. This looks to me like he's very blatantly trying to say 'hey guys, I suspect Prosaurus!'. There's only one reason to do that.

Couple more nonsense posts about Prosaurus which reinforce my above point. TS actually manages to change his line of attack during these:

Unless you think the scumteam are both inexperienced, in which case you're pointing the finger at yourself.

I'm an IC

srsly though, I can't explain why quilly wasn't killed. However I'm still suspicious of prosaurus for that day-talk thing. You've sorta proved my point in a way that everyone but prosaurus is experienced, and so I wouldn't be surprised if they instructed prosaurus to do that daytalk slip thing to look more like newb town who don't understand how scum play and cannot possibly be scum

okay...
maybe I hadn't thought of the doctor-Quilford thing

anyways, I'd still like to bring up the Prosaurus-daytalk evidence again. I'm not willing to give him a free pass today and I'm hoping you're not going to too

also, Locke, are you claiming or not then? The majority of us seem to be in favour

A Prosaurus response to a question of mine:

@LL If I changed my suspicions because of the NK it would be to you and FS because Rhinox didn't really expect anyone else for a scumteam. I already had suspicions of you and FS.

Prosaurus admits that he's thought about who Rhinox was suspecting and what the NK implies. Given that Prosaurus has been acting like he hasn't thought about much this game, the fact that he instantly knows Rhinox's suspects and where they might lead suspicions suggests to me that this isn't the first time he's thought about it.

OK, I'm out of time for tonight, but I have the rest of the quotes saved and I'll finish this up tomorrow.

[Locke Lamora]

Pro, can you tell me why you've played differently in this game to your recently completed Newbie, which you have been playing at the same time?

[Locke Lamora]

First of all, unvote. Someone.

Duplicity: apparently I have to point this out again. All game we've been saying 'why would Prosaurus-scum do that?' and that we don't see scum motivation from Prosaurus. If he's playing badly, why is the assumption that he's playing badly as town? It's one thing to say 'hey Prosaurus, we're bussing tomorrow'. It's a completely different thing for Prosaurus, who has never played scum before, to actually know what to do in that situation. For some reason we're willing to put his bad play down to clueless town, but we're expecting a higher level of play from Prosaurus if he were to be scum.

Farside: not only was Prosaurus posting more in that newbie game, he was trying to prod other people into contributing. In this game, the longer it's gone on, the less he's been able to muster an opinion. In the other game he was far more proactive, he actually bothered to comment on the events of the game and he even questioned other players. Here he's been passive to the extreme.

As for your TS point: what's the reason for the weak push if Prosaurus is town? I've already pointed out how nobody wanted to lynch Pro. Given the state of the game, it makes no sense to keep pushing a line of reasoning that even TS has previously abandoned because it's quite obviously nonsense.

I really don't know what to think any more. The vast majority of today's action has been me doing all the work reading back and people have just been responding to say why other people can't be scum. Frankly, it's maddening, and I think if anyone was actually analysing the game with any level of objectivity, it would be quite obvious I'm the least likely to be buddies with TS. What are the reasons to lynch me? PoE based on flawed, inconsistent reasoning? The fact that I pushed harder on TS on D4 rather than D3? EA's NE points are the only half-decent thing I've seen brought up against this slot for weeks, and they're completely outweighed by the fact that EA attacked the scum roleblocker with a vig shot in play. As for my play, I don't think I've ever worked this hard as town. I pushed a lynch on TS when a confirmed townie didn't want to lynch him, I've been working hard to figure this game out ever since I got in it and I've put more effort into this situation than all three of you put together. So I'm town, we're screwed and I really hope that EA comes back when it's over to help me rant some more about this game.

[Locke Lamora]

See, you've hit on part of why I'm getting annoyed. People keep saying 'I've had a townread on X for ages'. That's not a reason in itself. You had a town read on me earlier in the game, and now you don't. Quilford had a townread on TS for virtually the entire time he was in the game, and it was dead wrong. It's as though people are refusing to consider Pro as scum just because they didn't think he was scum earlier in the game. Why don't people think he's scum? Because he's played cluelessly, he's not manipulative, he doesn't look as though he has any scum motivation. Because he says things that you think scum would never say. Because he doesn't do what you'd expect scum to do e.g. bus NE or TS on D2. All of these things are based on one idea: that Pro would actually know how to play scum. And the more I read the game, the more I wonder why Prosaurus can't just be clueless scum.

I acknowledged that Gorilla had put forward some reasoning that actually makes a case. I believe we covered some of this previously in the game when Rhinox brought it up. I see where he's coming from with NE. I really don't buy that EA continuing to push on TS after everyone else has jumped off is a scumtell. EA's not stupid. If he was scum with 'inside information', he's not going to keep pushing on his buddy when he has a great opportunity to unvote. EA pushed that wagon, and he pushed it hard. What Gorilla's essentially saying here is that he treated NE and TS completely differently; that he made a weak vote on NE and backed down quickly, but led the TS wagon and refused to unvote even when everyone else was backing off. So I don't see how both things are compatible with Gorilla's idea of scum interactions. It seems to me he's having it both ways.

There's also one point that I highly disagree with in his analysis of D2; the idea that scum would know they'd 'look good' regardless of which wagon they backed. Bussing NE was worthless on D2. Once a cop claims a guilty on someone, you don't get towncred for being on that wagon. The very fact that he wants to lynch me is proof that an NE vote on D2 would be completely redundant for the sake of bussing. TS was the only one who got any towncred from being on that wagon, and several players were still seriously considering him as scum after his flip. As for not directly arguing with EA...I can't even begin to describe how contradictory this is to the idea that scum came out of the gate planning to bus.

What about my question to Farside? Why did TS start D4 by going back on himself and saying 'hey guys, Prosaurus might still have slipped' when it was obvious that no-one was going to lynch him based on that? What's the motivation for doing that if Prosaurus is town?

[Locke Lamora]

I meant to say that I know it's a difficult position, and it's just hard to contextualise it from anyone's position other than your own when you know your lynch is going to lose town the game. Thanks for unvoting, anyway, and good luck with the exam.

[Locke Lamora]

Might as well finish up with the quotes I already pulled. After my previous question about Rhinox being NKed, Prosaurus comes up with this:

Heh. I reckon what's happening with the night kill is LL/FS (or maybe only one of them) has done this NK so they can say scum are trying to frame them. If it's only one of them it's good for scum because then a townie will be lynched if they're caught.

So now he goes from not having any thoughts on the NK from actually using it to point at me and Farside.

Another post that reinforces my Duplicity read:

Unfortunatly I don't have the time needed to fully go into the case at the current moment however I will briefly go into what I came across in my re-read and what I discussed with G. There was an incident about half way through day one that everyone has seemed to have forgotten.

This incident involved EA believing that Farside was editing and manipulating her posts and occured in Post #147, Post #149, Post #150 and Post #156. I don't see EA screenshotting his partners posts and stating it openely in the thread with knowledge that it could potentially lead towards Farsides mod-kill and a major inconvienance towards his scum-team. This means I don't see any possible way that Farside can be scum with LL. Considering that the only thing G and I both agree upon is our solid town read on Prosarus this means that Twistedspoon absouletly has to be mafia.

Vote: Twistedspoon

I'm incredibly comfortable with this vote, excluding the fact that he's essentially confirmed mafia via PoE (Process of Elimination) he is also attempting to skeet his way through this day without actually attempting to do any scumhunting. He himself has stated that he believes Pros is mafia, quite strongly actually however has not once attempted to convince anyone of this nor has he attempted to state alternate reads he has or what he believes of the fact that Farside wasn't actually lynched yesterday.

I believe LL has gone into his linkages and connection with NE enough that I need-not go into it myself but this is all going to come down to whether or not Quilford is willing to reconsider his incorrect read of Twistedspoon or not. If this lynch does go ahead, without meaning to sound arrogant I believe our slot is likely to bite the night-kill tonight meaning I would rather we not rush through this day until I can have another conversation with G about who we believe the other mafia is - He has a strong FoS towards LL however has been unable to explain it to me without pointing to a awkward bit of interaction from NE to EA on day one which is close to meaningless as it could have just been a subtle attempt at buddying.

The ruling out of the me-Farside team looks as though Duplicity is thinking about connections and possibilities in a very pro-town manner, particularly as it leads directly to a TS vote. I do now note that the 'awkward bit of interaction' is the crux of the case Gorilla made on me, which is amusing in a slightly distressing kind of way.

That read is reinforced with this response to Quilford:

The vote count if anything points towards Farside and my slot rather than LL's so can you explain how that VCA leads you to believe that LL is scum. This honestly is looking like you attempting to avoid posting reasoning or logic behind your gut-read on LL while also avoiding explaining your town-read on Twisted in greater depth.

There's no way I can stand back and observe a lynch on anyone other than Twistedspoon occur without you changing my mind in regards to Twisted or presenting a case that I find reasonable towards LL/Farside since I don't see any legitimate way that Pros is scum.

Duplicity actually tells Quilford that his VCA is wrong and points away from me and towards himself and Farside. Again, it wool have been very easy to go down the path of letting Quilford push my lynch.

I return to Prosaurus here with some (gasp) actual reads:

My reads...
Dup - Town, given me no reason to suspect him.
LL - Scum, read carried over from EA, posted some stuff recently I believe.
FS - Scummy, PoE and stuff, think I posted stuff recently as well.
TS - Scummy, I reckon he coulda bussed and he seemed to not do much D1 if I remember, he didn't D2 either, but I can at least partly understand that.

Will look for my recent reads.

The one that really bothers me here is that Prosaurus now thinks that TS 'coulda bussed'. If you recall (or even bothered to read) my D3 analysis, Prosaurus explicitly said that he didn't see why TS would bus and strongly implied he didn't think he was scum. Now, with no apparent indication of why, he thinks TS might have been bussing. Is it a coincidence now that half the town want to lynch TS? I think not. It's also posts like these that make me think Pro is playing the lazy newb card a little too strong. Read his recently completed newbie. He goes through post by post at times and comments on things by post number. Here it's 'I think he posted stuff recently'. I think he's deliberately trying to look as though he doesn't know what's going on.

This one confounds me a little:

You know what I don't like? TS pushing the least experienced player (Me) to vote LL. If I did that and LL wasn't scum then wouldn't scum quickhammer and town loses? He seems bored, like he just wants the game to hurry up and end. Actually, I don't think LL and TS are both scum, because either scum is voting LL or LL is scum. Does that mean FS is scum with one of those two?

This is...actually kinda accurate. I think that's the first time I've read one of Pro's posts and thought that. Prosaurus is obviously feeling pressurised by TS here, and he doesn't like it. The fact that he says it gives me a gut town read. On the flip side, he also states that he doesn't think TS and I are scum together, an opinion that has conveniently disappeared again today.

Prosaurus challenges again for scummiest post of the game:

I agree that TS hasn't done much in this game, but neither have I. I'd rather play it safe and lynch FS...

So TS has been as useless as Pro, which is an excuse to give him a pass? It's almost as though he's trying to use the towncred he's bought by being spectacularly useless to extend to TS. The 'play it safe' part really bothers me here; it's just opening himself up for an easy wagon hop when he's actually shown no conviction over FS being scum at all - let's not forget that one of the two main points of his case was 'stuff'. Now today he has completely dropped FS, despite the fact that he doesn't seem to understand the implications of TS's 'hammer' and whether it was fake or not, and gone back to me, when he ruled me out just yesterday based on me vs TS.

And that's about it. If you don't believe me by now, there's not much else I can do. I'll continue to fight my corner until deadline, so if anyone has any more questions etc., fire away.

[Locke Lamora]

My concern is that Prosaurus doesn't seem to be taking the opportunity to lynch me, which, let's face it, would have been pretty easy to do today. It doesn't look like he's been online, so I guess it's a null-tell, but it just doesn't sit right.

Why do you think you're going to die tonight? Why do you think scum-Locke pushing on TS would make sense for scum in MyLo, but TS pushing on scum-Pro would not?

[Locke Lamora]

Farside: http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=17220. I'll go into more detail about my read on his play in the two games when I get the chance, but I'll let you draw your own conclusions first.

[Locke Lamora]

Pro: you said earlier in the game that you didn't think I was scum because of the interactions between TS and myself. What changed? What do you think makes Farside town?

[Locke Lamora]

Farside: these are both from earlier this year

Town - http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=15934

Scum - http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=16122

To answer your questions, Pro only had two previously completed games when we started, and he was also obviously still getting used to MS at that stage. From what I remember, I think he did some fairly typical newbie things and I didn't read too much into them as an indicator of his play here. As his game running alongside this was still going for the vast majority of this game, I didn't know his alignment and I also couldn't comment on it anyway even once he flipped. Once the game ended and I could actually use it for context, I looked back at it to see how his play compared, and that was when I noticed big differences, like the post-by-post comments and the effort to actually get the rest of the town to contribute.

That partly answers the other part of your question. The rest is the fact that lately I've been thinking about scum agendas and the absence of scum intent in actions and the way players direct their suspicions and interact with the town. I've been thinking about this a lot since the /in-vitational where I had to choose between Poro and MoI; Poro played one of the most anti-town games I've seen in a while, while MoI did all the things you'd think town should do. At the end of the day, though, Poro was just a bit clueless; there was actually that point where he completely mixed up who'd replaced who and forgot that I'd been in the game the whole time. He didn't do much pro-town, but there was no evidence of him having a hidden agenda either.

That was how I was reading Prosaurus here; he has not done a whole lot of pro-town things, but he wasn't doing things that indicated he had hidden motivation behind them either. For example, he didn't seem to be targeting the wagons that benefitted scum most, or bussing when the time was right to buy towncred. There were also moments like not going after me when he had the chance yesterday that seemed very unlike scum; Quilford wanted me lynched, and it would have been easy for Pro to back my wagon because it was actually consistent with his suspicions. Once I read his meta from the game he was playing at the same time here, read his approach and interactions here, and thought more about Pro's mindset as first-time scum, suddenly 'that doesn't make sense as scum' wasn't as much of an excuse any more. If you contextualise it as first-time scum being unsure and playing everything unnecessarily safe, and even being encouraged to do so by his teammates (which is a frustratingly effective strategy for newbie scum), it fits perfectly. So that's basically how my read evolved from 'Pro is useless but town' to 'Pro's actually been pretty damn scummy'.

[Locke Lamora]

What are you talking about? None of us posted here for days. You didn't seem to be concerned about being close to deadline yesterday either; you just sat there waiting for something to happen. Like you're doing here, in fact. What about my other point? Why were you far more active in reading back and commenting on specific posts in the other game, whereas here you have been very passive for quite some time?

Farside: honestly, I find it can make it difficult to get into a game if you go ahead and try to reread everything in every context when you start, particularly if you replace in a decent amount of time into the game. It's not really something I normally focus on particularly strongly anyway, and I think there are very few players out there who regularly offer a balanced view on the game. Most people have their favourite wagons and particular targets, and I don't see anything wrong with it as a way of playing the game as long as everyone's getting scrutinised one way or another.

I do find myself more inclined to initial major rereads as scum too; in that scum game I linked, PoE and my predecessor's play had basically made the slot pretty obv-scum. I tried to do a major reread to at least make people have some questions about it. In another, I replaced into a newbie in endgame as scum and basically used masses of content to sway people off my slot and onto a newb player. As town, I feel less inclined to do that when I replace in. I tend to reread crucial situations and latch on to scummy things I find; hence the Maxous suspicion when I got into the game.

[Locke Lamora]

You just don't look like you have any interest in working out who's scum. I understand that you like to respond to things that other people ask you, but I've been trying to get you to contribute for ages and you've basically been doing the absolute minimum in response with no effort to determine anything else. To recall something you said on D1:

I don't think this was in RVS.

So it wasn't. It meant that you would rather no-lynch, and, depending on whether it's LyLo, lose the game.

If we were in LyLo, I'd have enough evidence to choose someone.

So here we are, and your evidence is what? That you think TS wouldn't have 'hammered' Farside, and you have a gut scum read on me? That's it, after 50 pages?

One final question: is this really your first game as scum?

[Locke Lamora]

Well, I'm going to be away for a week, and I'm unlikely to be able to post in that time, so I'm just going to have to go ahead and vote. Honestly, I still have doubts, but I don't think there's anything more I can go over that's going to change my mind enough (or anyone else's, for that matter). I'll answer Farside's last couple of points and this will be my last post.

Farside: I can understand that perspective. Perhaps I shouldn't have answered you instead of giving you my instincts on who looked like the most likely buddy. I don't think it was a case of 'Duplicity is obv-scum...now he's obv-town'. I think I made the clear distinction between what I felt based on the interactions and what I felt based on Dup's play.

As for TS trying to lynch his buddy in MyLo, I just have to ask why you think that's a reason for Prosaurus not to be scum but not me. What's the point of me pushing TS-scum yesterday if we were partners? I don't see why you ignore that but keep coming back to TS's push on Prosaurus - which is really not that far removed from his vote on NE with no subsequent scumhunting. I know this is a big WIFOM-fest all round, but I think you need to look elsewhere if you're making that the basis of your decision.

Vote: Prosaurus

[Locke Lamora]

Back from holiday. Very frustrating. By the time it got round to LyLo I'd gone round so many times in my head suspecting everyone that I didn't have the energy to question Farside again. I knew Pro was going to vote for me so I felt like I didn't have much choice either. I should have gone with my gut instinct on seeing that TS 'hammer', but hey, you live and learn (or not). I really hate playing town.

Duplicity: don't worry about it. It was one of those situations where it's really hard to comprehend why you're getting suspected, but when you think about it, there were valid reasons for everyone to say that. I felt like I'd put up a compelling case on TS in a situation where scum had no reason to do so and so it was personally frustrating for me to find myself as a top suspect when no-one had argued that lynch as forcefully as I had, and I didn't really think I'd done anything scummy either (other than perhaps being too honest about how often my mind changed!). At the end of the day, I kept going round in circles after finding new reasons why you all weren't scum, so I can't blame you for suspecting me.