TV Mafia Game Over - Scum Win

[ZeL1nK]

/confirm

[ZeL1nK]

So Zel1nk are you scum again this game? Just turn yourself in if you are and save us the trouble

Nope. And I actually have no idea who I am because I don't follow the series.

But I'm a commander. So I must be a pretty cool guy.

As for name claiming, I don't see a particular reason to name claim because there's probably nothing useful to be gained from it.

p-edit: beaten to the punch

[ZeL1nK]

VOTE: vezok

Name one thing anti-town about a quick lynch on vezok before he's able to post.

[ZeL1nK]

Why are people derailing the vezok lynch?

[ZeL1nK]

Why are people pushing the vezok lynch?

Because it's vezok

On vezok: I agree that a mass nameclaim is neutral at best for town and it consequently should not be done. I don't think his request warrants a speedlynch, though (I don't know whether people are serious about it or it is just part of the jokevote stage), but a pressure for him to fullclaim seems good.

Wait, vezok suggested it? I didn't even realise that. It also has nothing to do with why a vezok wagon is a good thing.

There is one pro-town reason I can think of that a vezok wagon doesn't need to happen, though... andrew is in this game. And an andrew wagon is just as good.

I'm conflicted now.

[ZeL1nK]

I am going to vig Zinger tonight. Anyone have a problem with this?

I think a nameclaim is a bad idea; even if factions are randomized, it may be the case that their TV Roles have a factor in any PRs that may exist.

If it's like the last jasont game, roles are randomised, not just alignments.

The reason it's a bad idea is because it's a waste of time and achieves nothing.

[ZeL1nK]

Oh, I'm a hydra. My heads are poster#1 and poster#2. I've been told by poster#1 he wants to remain anonymous. I'd tell you who I am but I haven't played with a majority of the players in this game and I don't think it's important.

As for this game itself, Rod is town, MoI is town, Vifam is scum.

unvote

VOTE: vifam

Reads list in #145 looks contrived. It's as though he was just giving "reads" to give the illusion that he was scum hunting. I mean, come on... Look at the Zinger read, for example. It's like a "well, duh!" kind of read, and it was completely unnecessary. Also looks like buddying newb-town (Rod) while calling MoI-town scummy.

Subsequent posts are full of deflection and weak attacks for stuff that really isn't scummy.

[ZeL1nK]

Not wanting to headclaim is about as anti-town as it gets.

Watch how much I care...

Watch...

Wait for it...

...

...

...

[ZeL1nK]

I'm still confused as to whether Zelink made a joke when he claimed vig or not

Good. Let's keep it that way. If people think I'm joking, then that's a good thing.

[ZeL1nK]

I hold no grudge. Zinger won me that game.

[ZeL1nK]

jil is replacing out of all her games. I've seen her replace out of two other games I'm following with the exact same post. It's not an alignment tell.

And jilynne/future replacement is scummy, for reasons which include meta I can't mention.

K, start with your reasons that don't include meta.

[ZeL1nK]

killerjester is so very town. cool.

[ZeL1nK]

No, andrew, no on would ever call any of your posts "good". MoI was talking about Pinky's post (which mentioned you).

ZeL1nK claimed he would kill me Night 1 before I had said ANYTHING in this game what-so-ever.

Ah, nope.

You'd posted in this thread when I said that.

Also, unvote.

That's it?

[ZeL1nK]

Am I the only one that read easjo's #269 and saw "I am scum" repeated about 50 times?

They aren't really helping in any way. Seemingly joking the whole time, avoiding Hydra head claiming with no reason (as far as I can see)...

Helping what?

Joking about what?

As for not claiming heads, why do you care?

Zinger is not putting forth any sort of content whatsoever, despite doing some pretty decent scumhunting in Super Hero Mafia. PeregrineV and Leonshade both look like they are active lurking, not putting much content out, and not really committing to any reads.

My thoughts on Zinger are pretty much the same, and while I'm not sure about Leon, I'm pretty sure Pere's 'active lurking' isn't an indication of alignment.

[ZeL1nK]

I have plenty to hide. What of it?

Also, I don't tell jokes. I am always serious.

As for 'helping', what exactly are you expecting from me?

[ZeL1nK]

unvote

VOTE: Zinger

No, Zinger, you're not doing anything.

Just responding to stuff I read, can't be bothered quote-walling.

easjo isn't my top suspect, that post (#269) was scummy, though. And yes, the whole thing, The parts that were 'null' are scummy because they're 'null'. It's fluff designed to make it look like he's providing content.

Leon is prob-town. At least he's done nothing that makes me think he's scum. killer's 'case' on him is stretching.

Not reading DavidX as scum, either.

izak is scum, though. I kind o loled at his comment about vollkan's method of scumhunting when izak's method of scumhunting is to.... er.... um.... yeah....

@Mod,

Can I vig two people tonight? (Meransiel and Zinger, for example)

[ZeL1nK]

No more talk of Jesters, Jason explicitly stated in the signup thread there is no Jester.

Meransiel's lurking is null, it doesn't play towards town or scum's win-con (objectively speaking). It's anti-town, it's not 'scummy'.

[ZeL1nK]

Dear God. Do people want to give more input than, "KJ is being silly, he should just believe Leon is town like the rest of us."?

killer, I personally don't care whether you agree with my read, but your case on Leon is stretching.

- Scum fabricate excuses to claim that they find someone suspicious.
- Scum uses manipulation and deceit to achieve their nefarious ends.
- Scum try to look suspicious of someone that is in no danger of being lynched so they are uninvolved with the lynch of a townie.
- Scum need to look like they are trying to catch scum.

Like yeah, these are valid points in general, but trying to apply them to Leon is stretching.

The main reason I think he's probably town is mostly to do with nuances in his posts that give me town vibes. He's also done nothing that really stands out and makes me think he's scum, so bonus points there, considering how many people are begging to be lynched right now.

[ZeL1nK]

Also, I apologize if you've already done this Zel1nK, but I couldn't find where you explained why you claimed vigilante? It seemed to serve no purpose. You say that you "never tell jokes" and that you are always serious. You even referenced your claim recently wondering if you could kill both of Zlinger and Meran. The fact that you never joke makes me find that suspicious as that is something that you would ask in a role PM. Even so it seems rather obvious whether or not your PM says you can kill two in a night. I want you to explain this as best you can.

In what possible way could it benefit you for me to discuss my motives here?

Zinger townslipped. He's town.

If you're referring to what I think you're referring to, I don't consider that a town slip, but it's at least not worth pursuing today.

izak is a wagon I can get behind, though.

Unvote

VOTE: izak

[ZeL1nK]

The pro-town thing to do right now is ignore every post by Zinger. For the rest of this game. Just pretend he's not even there.

[ZeL1nK]

OK.

Zinger claimed third party with a self win-con. I want to lynch him just to make him lose D1 if he's telling the truth.

I'm trying to make sense of this claim.

There's someone with 'an item' that means Zinger wins if he targets them. But he's "self-aligned", and whoever has this item gets permanently "roleblocked" (not "jailed" but "roleblocked" <- there's a difference) if he targets them. <<-- If a town PR has this "item", it's not a good thing, and if scum has this item, they sure as hell aren't going to claim to have it. Also if scum have this item, it makes no sense to me that Zinger wouldn't win with town, because he'd be essentially working with town by permanently "roleblocking" scum.

Oh, and as a sidenote, meransiel is town, leon is still prob-town, and izak is still scum.

More later. A bit busy atm.

[ZeL1nK]

@Zinger,

What happens if someone investigates your alignment? What would someone get if they rolecopped you? Do you find out if the person with the 'item' you want dies? Do you have any indication of whether that 'item' belongs to town/scum/other?

ftr, I'm not entirely sure it's worth lynching Zinger today.

I'd rather someone like izak goes.

Lynching Zinger is almost too easy.

[ZeL1nK]

Do you think he's mafia bluffing or do you think he's third party or some sort?

And if you think he's mafia, why do you think he did this?

And if you think he's third party, then why go after him today?

[ZeL1nK]

The risk of "outing PRs" means nothing to me. I can't help it if town PRs are playing like scum. They should probably stop doing that. Might help them not get outed.

I want scum lynched today, not claimed third party. Zinger is a good vig shot, but it's not worth lynching him today, imo.

[ZeL1nK]

....

You think he's a third party bomb who wins if he gets shot at night?

No.

Besides, he claims he can only roleblock me once.

[ZeL1nK]

How long are you willing to delay his death?

Until it becomes a good idea to kill him, which is an iffy subject and depends on a lot of factors. The short answer is: at least until tomorrow.

[ZeL1nK]

Just verifying, the tracker claim means nothing to you, Thad?

What's your read on izak, btw?

[ZeL1nK]

I think the major problem in this game right now is that people are not taking my advice from #430

izak is stil scum and people are ignoring this because zinger is derping all over the place.

I'll have to check on izak. Why him specifically?

Because I think he's scum and you haven't really mentioned him.

We believe Zinger should be the lynch for today for several reasons.

1. He has claimed third party, which is clearly anti-town and therefore he has no reason to help town.
2. His claimed ability of jailkeeping is bad for town. He is anti-town, and therefore his JK's will not be with the intention of helping the town. Our PRs may get blocked, and he has no reason to try to avoid blocking them because his only intention will be to fulfill his wincon.
3. His roleclaim does not make sense. He claims that the person he JK's that is his target will be roleblocked for the rest of the game, when he is supposedly a jailkeeper. Also, as has been mentioned, the chances of him completing his wincon are very slim if he is what he says he is.

1 and 2 aren't necessarily true. He does have a reason to help town (to avoid getting lynched or vigged) and his claimed ability isn't necessarily bad for town, if he's directed. Of course, it's impossible to tell (short of tracking him) whether he'd doing what we tell him to do, so it's not necessarily a good idea to keep him alive, but like... if I am mysteriously roleblocked tonight, I'm sure as hell going to be pushing for his lynch tomorrow, regardless of whether it was actually him that roleblocked me. It's actually in his best interests to work with town, because it doesn't really hinder his claimed win-con, and it means he's more likely to be kept alive.

Of course, that's assuming he's telling the truth about his role. Which I don't think he is. He's not scum, that much I'm confident about. If he is third party, I don't consider him a threat. There's the possibility he's town and this was some gambit he thought was a really smart idea, and considering it's Zinger, this is something I think is a very real possibility.

In any case, he is not a good lynch today.

--

Oh, look...

#609

Durrr, ignore everything, argue with Zinger, hope everyone stops talking about me.

--

Also re: MoI's view on the replacement issue, it's consistent with what I've seen MoI say before. He even linked games in which he used this tell as town, so like... Yeah.

I think Silver is town, just a bit overzealous.

On another note, I'm also fairly sure there's scum pushing this Zinger lynch. At least 2, probably 3 on the Zinger wagon right now. I'm not sure, need a votecount to see who's actually on the lynch.

[ZeL1nK]

Thoughts now that you know he lied about his role

No different. He's either third party or town. Not worth killing today. I'd rather go after scum than worry about Zinger. Unless his win-con is surviving until D2 or something, he's insignificant.

3isFrench, Izak, Pappum,Cherve

^2 scum there.

[ZeL1nK]

#430

[ZeL1nK]

No, it's very simple. Ignore him and start scum hunting.

Just pretend he's not even posting.

It's very easy, I have skimmed over his posts over recent pages because I know there isn't any important content in them. He's not scum. He's not a threat. I am very happy to ignore him and have him lurk all day - I really don't care.

[ZeL1nK]

He's not doing this as scum. He's either third party playing like a VI or town playing like a VI, but he is not scum.

If he is actually third party, I don't see him as a threat.

[ZeL1nK]

It's very easy. I hit a few keys on my keyboard then I click the "Submit" button.

[ZeL1nK]

He's a claimed Jailer, not a Roleblocker. There's a difference.

Also

>Probably even worse than that

... is your theory, and one I don't agree with.

[ZeL1nK]

I would rather he is replaced than lynched.

The more I think about it, the more I realise he's probably town.

[ZeL1nK]

I've written two walls in the last 15 minutes, filled with explanations as to why I think he's probably town, but I've deleted them both because it's just me calling Zinger a dumbass over and over again. I can't actually figure out a way to explain it without insulting his intelligence multiple times during the course of the post.

But.... he's probably town. And he's a good vig shot, but really.... not worth wasting a D1 lynch on.

People just need to

IGNORE ZINGER

Stop reading his posts.

Get back to scum hunting and stop being lazy.

Just pretend he's not even there.

Unless you legitimately have a reason to suspect he's scum, and it's more substantial than "durrrrrrr he claimed third party", you should stop using him as an excuse to avoid doing anything meaningful today.

Come join me on this izak wagon. It has minigolf and cupcakes. Fun for everyone.

[ZeL1nK]

Actually it is totally different, because being a SK is actually a believable role. Being a self-aligned Jailkeeper with a lyncher-esque win-con? Nope.

All of the reasoning for the Zinger lynch gets demolished by one simple fact: Zinger is a dumbass. He is so much more likely to do this as town than as any other alignment.

Which is why I think he should just be replaced or ignored until he gets replaced.

[ZeL1nK]

So you actually went and read up on Umbrage’s “Jungle Republic” and LMP’s “KGB Mafia”? Usually people don’t follow through when I give supporting games.

No. I played in one of them.

Explain your methodology and thought process that went into this. Is in more complicated than “Hey, I’m picking out slots 6 – 9 on the wagon”?

Based on my reads. I guess it's strangely ironic that their position on the wagon could also be considered scummy.

Did I just see a “Too Dumb for Scum” argument?

I guess you could call it something like that. I've already explained pretty fully why I don't see it coming from Zinger as scum, and Zinger admitting he's third party as third party is just so dumb that I'm willing to call it less likely than him thinking it's a smart thing to do as town.

Like it's 'dumb' play, regardless of alignment. I'm rationalising which alignment this dumb play is most likely to come from.

I've come to the conclusion that it is unlikely as heck that both are Town.

Based on...?

[ZeL1nK]

O302

[ZeL1nK]

But.... he's probably town. And he's a good vig shot

Can you explain those 2 different thoughts?

I personally think he's more than likely town. His play/claim doesn't make sense as scum, and it doesn't make sense as third party, either. More than likely this was some fail gambit as town.

If it came down to a choice between lynching him and vigging him, I'd rather try and lynch someone I think is scum and vig Zinger so people shut up about him.

--

I'm find it quite funny just how many people are saying "I think izak is scummy................ BUT I am not unvoting Zinger because he claimed Third Party"

Here's the thing. Zinger probably is telling the truth now. He probably is town, and this was probably some fail gambit or something that completely backfired. He's most likely not scum, and the chance that he's actually third party and unnecessarily did all this D1 is also very, very small.

If you're going to vote for Zinger, tell me which part of this line of thinking you disagree with and why. If you're just going to repeat "he claimed Third Party" over and over, ad nauseum, then this discussion goes nowhere. I also don't want to hear any more about how "stupid" it was for him to do; it was stupid to do as

any alignment

, and being stupid isn't a tell of any sort.

People just need to go back to actually scum hunting.

Also, izak needs more pressure.

btw, the thing with izak's ISO is that you don't really get a good grasp of why he's scummy just from going through it. Fact is, he's been ignoring a large majority of the game while doing very little scum hunting and picking and choosing easy things to respond to (sort of similar to active lurking).

Overall, I got the feeling izak's

noooooottttt really

trying to scumhunt.

QFT

As for my full claim: I am what I said, a regular town jailkeeper.

OK.

Cool.

So, you gonna do anything or just complain about egos all game?

[ZeL1nK]

If by some crazy logic you still think he's probable town then I cannot convince you.

How is anything I said "crazy logic"?

Which parts of my reasoning do you disagree with?

^ Same question to David.

[ZeL1nK]

I'm not suggesting keeping Zinger alive for the whole game, so I don't see that as a reasonable objection.

What I'm suggesting is to hunt scum today, go after Zinger at a later stage if he's still around and people still consider him possible third party/scum.

He dies at some point in this game. Doing this as scum is suicidal, and this whole thing being a gambit by Zinger-scum is simply not a possibility, as far as I'm concerned. Doing this as third party is also very unlikely because it simply doesn't benefit his win con.

On the other hand, I

can

see possible reasons he'd think it was a good idea as town. For example, it could have been a reaction-fishing gambit. It could have been a gambit to make himself look like he wasn't a threat to scum. etc etc.

This is the kind of gambit that just doesn't come from VI-scum or VI-third-party, but could come from VI-town.

In any case, even if you completely disagree with everything I've said, do you think Zinger is a threat? He's going to die, one way or another, at some point in this game. Would it not be beneficial to hunt for people more likely to be scum in the mean time?

[ZeL1nK]

^That was mostly directed at vollkan, I just cbfed addressing him.

[ZeL1nK]

Tell me, Zel1nk, what would Zinger need to do to make you support lynching him?

Depends on lynches and night actions.

I completely understand giving VIs a high level of tolerance. But, for example, if Vezok did the same thing that Zinger did, I'd lynch Vezok in a heartbeat.

I'd probably agree with this, but my read here is subjective and applies only to Zinger. If anyone else did something similar in this game, I'd want them lynched.

Also, you ignore the prospect that this is actually a gambit from zinger-scum

I'm willing to ignore that prospect for now because, like I said, he dies at some point, and if he is scum, he's not a threat.

Tell me what you think you'll learn from today if he flips town.

[ZeL1nK]

What, you mean like the game where he won me the game when I was scum? I may or may not have briefly skimmed that one.

I've also read a newbie game of his where he self-hammered as town on D2 because he was upset (yes, he got upset that people were voting for him, so he self-voted), which led to LyLo, which led to a scum win.

I think my grounds for believing he's a VI are fairly well substantiated.

And this is exactly the type of gambit I could see him thinking is a good idea as town.

[ZeL1nK]

Also, Zel1nk, if you want izak dead that badly, vig him. I actually think that is a VERY good idea.

There are two reasons I'd rather not do this:

1) I don't get to properly analyse connections like I would in running izak up for a lynch
2) There are a variety of possible ways any attempted kill on izak could be prevented

It's much more efficient and beneficial to lynch him.

[ZeL1nK]

Had a look at izak. He hasn't really contributed much but he has said who he thinks are scum and who he thinks are town a few times. He seems ok so far.

@ZeL1nK, can you sum up why this Izak character is scummy? I am looking at his ISO now and nothing is catching my eye.

When I initially developed a scum read on him, it was after his comment about vollkan's style of scum hunting, which started setting off alarms. I found it quite funny that he was criticising someone's method of scum hunting when he had done

absolutely no scum hunting himself

. At the time, he had his vote on Vifam because "But Vifam really sticks out like a sore thumb here, and is still a few votes off of lynching". No reasoning as to why he found Vifam suspicious, just that Vifam stuck out like a sore thumb. Vote stays on Vifam for the rest of the early game while making a few comments here and there.

My major problem with izak is something you can't catch from skimming through his ISO because you're not looking at his posts contextually. He ignores a lot of the things that are happening in this game, and comments only on the popular bandwagons (Vifam first, Meransiel second, Zinger third). For example, all of his posts where he talks about Zinger after he votes for him are posts in which he's ignoring a large amount of discussion that's going on in the game, ignoring people's suspicions of him, etc.

Jailkeeper CAN'T be a scum role.

Er, yes it can. It's probably rarer, but I've seen it before.

It could be a cover for a standard Roleblocker

Not really likely, considering Zinger knows the last game Jason ran had both a mafia roleblocker and a town jailer, I doubt he'd use jailer as a fakeclaim. I doubt he'd even get into the position where he'd need to use it as a fakeclaim unnecessarily, as well.

[ZeL1nK]

Actually, JK isnt even redundant in a game with a single scum faction. It could be used, for example, to both roleblock and stop people targeting a scummy claimed-PR. But this discussion is pretty much irrelevant and should be dropped.

@vollkan,

My point is that the role he claimed first up was an anti-town role.

Is the fact that he didn't know it was 'anti-town' a moot point for you?

Consider this for a moment, as crazy as it may be... He is town, and claimed a third party role that he thought was neutral (not anti-town), as a gambit of sorts (to avoid NKs).

IMO, ^ that description of what happened makes the most sense. Do you really think it's more likely he actually is third party or scum? Like, I suppose it's possible he's scum and he did it to look like town gambiting, but that's an overly complex explanation with pretty severe repercussions if he didn't pull it off (and, IMO, it's not something Zinger would think to do as scum, anyway).

[ZeL1nK]

@Zel1nk: If you vig Zinger, I will replace out.

Wait...

Are you saying I should do it? Or I shouldn't do it?

I can't tell, because it came off sounding somewhat like a threat, but you're giving me incentive to do it.

[ZeL1nK]

No, we cool, dawg. I have better things to do than call you town all day then vig you. If I wanted you dead, I'd lynch you.

I can't say yes, anyway... you'll roleblock me.

[ZeL1nK]

Of the current wagons, Zinger is town, Silver is town, DavidX is most likely town.

Needs less votes on those wagons.

[ZeL1nK]

Well I can just say it. I did, too. It was very easy.

There's a pretty strong case against you, too, but most people are ignoring it because you claimed tracker. What's your point?

Are you saying I haven't explained why I think Zinger is town? Or are you asking me to explain the other two?

I'm more interested in why people

aren't

reading them as town. DavidX votes I could maybe understand, but Silver hasn't really done much to warrant the votes IMO. I've played with the cj head of silver a few times, and he has a tendency to make really scummy posts, regardless of alignment. The silver head, on the other hand, reads pretty strongly as town.

[ZeL1nK]

@davidx

Well, I don't actually agree with the points raised against you, but you make a lot of comments that are just bad in general.

For example, off the top of my head, one of the things the bugs me about you is your insistence that MoI reveals the identities of the neighbours. I also recall there being a few inconsistencies in things you've said. And you post a lot more IIoA/defending yourself than actually scum hunting.

Like I could go into more detail if I went through your ISO and picked out everything that could be called "scummy" in some way, but that's a frivolous exercise because I think you're town.


@junpei,

If I hadn't seen a game of yours in which you've played like this as town, I'd assume you're scum, independent of Vifam's idiocy. Your push on Zinger looks really, really scummy and your lack of scum hunting in general while pushing Zinger makes it worse.

Every post you've made is Zinger this, Zinger that. What are you going to do if Zinger is town?

[ZeL1nK]

OK.

So let's assume you have actually been hunting scum.

What are your reads?

Who's scum after a Zinger town flip?

[ZeL1nK]

hm.

I just realised I have town reads on everyone >= 29 posts at this point. I have some town reads among the players with less than 29, but everyone over 29 is a town read. Either I'm reading this game wrong or scum is lurking.

[ZeL1nK]

How do I go about getting scum lynched D1? Because it seems nobody is interested in doing that.

[ZeL1nK]

Question for Zelink: you mentioned there are nuances in Leon's posts that carry town vibes. Can you elaborate on that?

Dude, I said that like 30 pages ago. Literally. I can't remember what I was referring to specifically, but I'd assume it had to do with the way his posts were phrased and the intonation I was reading in them. I'll go back and look at it if it's necessary, but considering he's not up for lynching today, it's not a priority. I also haven't been paying much attention to Leon in the past 30 pages.

There was no justification for a gambit though. His is/was a role that would have gone pretty much undetected for a lengthy period of time if played properly, so trying to endear himself to Scum was by no means a justifyable move, either for a Town or Third Party. As Third Party, he reveals he's third party and negative to both sides, as Town, he reveals he's a PR to Scum, and hands them the opportunity to get rid of one of three PRs of their choice.. it's simply not logical and fuels my suspicion of him as Scum. It's the only side I can potentially see benefitting if this "gambit" worked..

Nah , it was a gambit. It just wasn't very well thought out.

[ZeL1nK]

People who are voting someone with only a couple of votes need to start thinking about taking sides: zinger or silver.

Nah, I'm quite happy not voting for a townie.

Excuse me while I prod dodge until izak is back so people don't feel guilty about voting him or whatever.

[ZeL1nK]

Oh, and for plj, 1-3-2

[ZeL1nK]

Why, in your opinion, is silver a townie?

- He soft-claimed vanilla on the last page. And it was a genuine softclaim, not an I'm-scum-gambiting-so-maybe-people-will-think-I'm-town softclaim

- The self-confidence displayed in his push on Pine. My opinion on why this makes him look town is because I'm of the opinion that all of the main wagons are town wagons, and he hasn't taken the opportunity to move to any of them. Instead, arrogantly pushes the Pine wagon with posts like #435 and #503 (also the part directed at "Rest of Town" reads as town, too).
^ This point is what most strongly cements him as town in my mind.

- I've liked the way he's explained himself. The silver head, at least, has been consistent and I'm following his explanations, even if I don't agree with a lot of his conclusions. Plus the frustration he's displayed looks genuine.

- Most of the flak he's copped has been because of the disruption caused from the differences in opinions between the heads. I have a totally different view on this compared to MoI's view on hydra dissonance. This kind of dissonance isn't "I'm changing my reads so I don't look scummy", it's "My other head is a massive dick and doesn't agree with me". While that's not townish, it's not something I consider scummy. The only other major issue I've seen with silver is his reads list, and I really don't even know why that's an issue.

Why, in your opinion, is silver scum?

[ZeL1nK]

In this post ZeL1nK says that he thinks my Zinger lynch is scummy. However this is odd because I did so with a ton of self confidence.

*snip*

Now it's a town tell to push hard on a wagon? You even say arrogantly so even if you don't agree with my logic it should still be a town tell for you.

What are you, a moron?

The key here is that you're pushing an obvious mislynch and Silver hasn't shown any indicationt that he'd be willing to vote for any of the main wagons.

Here, I'll bold the key point because you seem to have overlooked why I consider his arrogance a town tell.

My opinion on why this makes him look town is because I'm of the opinion that all of the main wagons are town wagons, and he hasn't taken the opportunity to move to any of them

---

Which brings me to the second thing he is trying to do, which is form the identity that he is the defender of the two wagons, Silver and Zinger. Most likely so that he doesn't have to choose sides.

Actually, 3 wagons. I also think DavidX is town.

And yeah, I'm not going to be on any of those wagons today unless they start spewing what I consider scum tells.

---

- was very wishy-washy regarding vifam. Uses phrases like "odd" and "I don't know what to think". Also the heads don't seem to agree about vifam

The Vifam thing came from cjdrum, and that's standard play from what I've seen of cjdrum. Probably more likely to come from cj-town, if anything - I'm more inclined to believe cj-scum wouldn't say something like "I don't know what to think".

As for the difference in opinions of the head, why do you think this is scummy rather than a case of heads not co-operating. It seems like they're having issues with being a hydra. Unless you think that in itself is scummy (and I'd like to know why if you do), I don't see how you can use this as a reason for suspecting silver. :/

- accusing moi of cheating during their argument

Just verifying, this is something you think is scummy? Or more likely to come from scum than town?

Could there be a softer target?

Well, Zinger for one. DavidX seems to be a fairly soft target as well.

We don't believe that Junpei's habitual extreme and disproportionate self-assurance is in any way a scumtell. We think he genuinely believes he's smarter than everyone else.

I assume this is due to modding experience with him? I can agree with this statement. Like I said previously, if I hadn't seem him act this way as town before, I'd think he's scum.

[ZeL1nK]

Zinger is NOT an obvious mislynch

Yes he is.

---

@Thad,

Also the composition of silver's scum list is something I don't see coming from scum, unless they're really, really, really ambitious scum.

What do you think of this from silver:

1. I'd rather me than zinger

[ZeL1nK]

No, there aren't.

It's the same crap over and over again.

I'll sum up it all up in one go. "He claimed third party".

^Yep, that's it. That's the entire convincing case against him.

I'm done arguing about it.

[ZeL1nK]

Care to provide a few more scum reads than just Izak?

Because you are doing a bang-up job telling us who isn't scum but in a Large Theme you probably should have more suspects than just Mr. Goomba.

No. Consider anyone outside of my town reads a scum read, for the purposes of figuring out who I currently suspect.

2, possibly 3 of {vezok, 3isfrench, izak, plj, vollkan, pinky}
2 of {slate, oversoul, nero cain, chevre}
1, possibly 2 of the players not on Silver/Zinger atm.

That's about as helpful as I'll get prior to at least one of their flips.

I HAVE seen scum claim third party.

Have you ever seen scum claim third party under the same conditions? As in, unprompted D1.

I'm not saying I've seen town do it, but I haven't seen scum do it, and it makes a lot more sense if it's a failed gambit coming from town than a scum gambit.

So he claims 3p, with the explanation that his lack of scumhunting was because, as a third party, he didn't want to upset the scum and get nightkilled.

Zinger really didn't have a substantial wagon at the time. He

was

getting wagoned, but not enough that it would pressure Zinger-scum to claim third party.

Also, it makes a whole lot more sense if you think of this as being set up from the start of the game (or perhaps even before the game started). That would also explain why he was inentionally playing in an anti-town manner at the beginning of the game (setting up for a fake-claim as a gambit).

If he claimed scum would you be saying the same thing? If you're town, it should mean the same to you

Claiming scum is a bit different to someone claiming a third party role that they didn't think was an anti-town role.

What makes you say that about the composition?

1) Lack of obvious candidates
2) Inclusion of not-so-obvious candidates
^ Vastly different from almost any other suspect list put forth thus far. It's not so much that it

wouldn't

come from scum, but that it's far more likely to come from stubborn town set in their reads.

[ZeL1nK]

Been a busy week (for both heads), haven't had much time. Will catch up tomorrow.

[ZeL1nK]

So I've read the last ten pages and I wish I hadn't. I am really uninterested in how this day turns out although I am interested in how much longer this Zinger wagon is going to stall at L-1.

Banshee and shotty are prob scum.

If this hasn't gone into N1 by the next time I check this thread, I'll try to post something a bit more meaningful than this.

[ZeL1nK]

I don't see how what peregrine said is any different to what I said a while back in #1123. I actually totally agree with peregrine.

@shotty,

You're scum because you replaced scum and you are scum. It's that simple. If I'm still around D2, I'll go into more detail.

I'll be busy spending this night phase writing a grand "I told you so" speech.

[ZeL1nK]

now I don't know if he's going to take me to Prom or not.

I'm not.

[ZeL1nK]

ThAdmiral I have mentioned things that andrew and ZeL1nK have done day 1 and day 2 has just started.

Um... No.

You spent most of D1 telling me I was completely wrong and Zinger was definitely not town.

Oh yeah, that reminds me.

As promised.

I TOLD YOU SO

I know, I know, I said it would be grand, but I am very lazy so you'll have to do with size=200 and pretend it's amazing.

---

Anyway,

Silver is town. He's wrong about Nero, he's right about the other two in his top three scum reads (shotty+izak). What irks me is that several people have expressed willingness to vote for izak but.... no izak wagon. Disappointing.

---

WAIT.

izak posts first about it, i find that a town read

The above quote is proof that izak is scum. The best way to find scum is to look at anything andrew says and go in the opposite direction. <- Not even joking, it's a rule of mine and I've had some amazing success with this.

VOTE: izak

ftr, I don't have any strong feelings about andrew whatsoever. I'm more inclined to believe he's town than scum, but I'm quite happy to sit on the fence on this issue while I push for a scum lynch.

I also refuse to answer any questions about my night action unless I see a good reason to do so. This I can answer:

Did you shoot Vollkan?

What are your feelings on lynching Andrew?

No, and meh as above.

[ZeL1nK]

I don't see any reason to answer either of those questions at this point in time.

[ZeL1nK]

Hi.

I'll, er... try to do something convincing tomorrow. izak and shotty are still scum, and it's so, so, so, so hard to get scum lynched for some reason.

[ZeL1nK]

Catching up some time in the next 12 hours. Apologies for the inactivity.

[ZeL1nK]

Hi, can I make it night now?

[ZeL1nK]

fck yeah

I'm a baws

VOTE: andrew

[ZeL1nK]

'tis not, unfortunately. Oh well. I got all excited for nothing. L-1

[ZeL1nK]

Why did you announce our roles instead of just our alignment?

[ZeL1nK]

hint: he didn't say he killed pappums.

[ZeL1nK]

I don't think he should answer your question. He implied some relation to pappums death but I can think of a variety of reasons pappums could have died due to an action from shotty that doesn't involve shotty intentionally and directly killing Pappums, and unless you think shotty is scum, I don't see a pro-town reason to fish for the exactly details of his role. It's not important at this time unless it helps find scum.

On that note, I'm beginning to think I'm very, very wrong in my izak-scum read. I need to evaluate some things.

[ZeL1nK]

You're claiming an insanely powerful role. Like... INSANELY powerful. I can't emphasise enough how powerful that role actually is, if you're town and telling the truth.

Why Pappums over someone like chk, who you said was 'obviously scummy' (or something like that) yesterday?

[ZeL1nK]

I haven't read anything that's been posted today and I'm proud of it. Can I hammer?

[ZeL1nK]

Wait, people think GI is... town acting scummy so that... scum will hammer him?

Or...?

I want to hammer, just because it makes me feel like a big man.

[ZeL1nK]

pretty sure you mean a scummy pony.

[ZeL1nK]

VOTE: peregrine

Hey I'm like 50 pages behind. Why did Oversoul claim he had a scum result that was redirected?

[ZeL1nK]

Bravo, fill me in here, he may have told you about it in the QT.

[ZeL1nK]

Someone put him at L-1 so I can be like POW MUDAFAKA.

[ZeL1nK]

VOTE: Shotty

Apparently it's not cool to vote for bravo.

Still want bravo to tell me what oversoul posted in the QT bout his gambit.

[ZeL1nK]

Two town JKs?

[ZeL1nK]

Exactly. Don't know why Shotty is reluctant to out the second JK he's found.

[ZeL1nK]

Wait...

Why did Shotty get "mafia neighbouriser" on andrew and just a "jail keeper" result on this mysterious second JK?

[ZeL1nK]

So you gambitted on Peregrine being SK, too?

[ZeL1nK]

ftr, this was Zinger's flip: "Zinger2099 was Earl Hickey, Town Jailkeeper lynched day 1"

Town JK. Not just JK. His role name was Town JK. Presumably, since your role cop gave you "Mafia Neighbouriser" on andrew, you'd also get an alignment result on a JK who, if town, should come up as "Town JK" like Zinger did.

[ZeL1nK]

Peregrine doesn't need to die. You making up shit about him being a "Holy SK" and then claiming he outed himself as SK is stupid. Explain the logic there. What were you thinking when you called him a Holy SK? And why didn't you ACTUALLY ROLECOP HIM LAST NIGHT? Because, you know, then you'd actually have real information to leave behind if you're really town.

I don't have an issue with you not claiming the JK result if you're 100% sure it's a town JK. That can be sorted when it comes time to mass claim. But if you didn't get a "town JK" result on him, it's a different matter, and you didn't claim to get a "town JK" result on him up until just now.

Tell me. What do we get if we lynch Peregrine today and he is town?

You going "Oh, whoops, I was wrong. Shit happens!" and us going "Shut the fuck up and die."

Why are scum continuing to let you get rolecop results when you have a chance of finding scum with it? Presumably, if you're town, and they know you're town, and they know you got a "mafia neighbouriser" result on andrew, they'd be shit scared that you could get a "mafia X" result on them as well. Why are you still alive and not roleblocked, etc etc?

[ZeL1nK]

Wow.

[ZeL1nK]

You're an idiot.

[ZeL1nK]

You make me want to stab myself in the eyes so I can't read any more of your posts.

In fact, I think that's what I'll do.

Right now.

BRB

@Mod,

V/LA until I figure out how to post without eyes.

[ZeL1nK]

That was @shotty, btw. In case anyone misunderstands.

[ZeL1nK]

No, you idiot. I didn't want you to out your result. As I said in #2424, that can be sorted when it comes time to mass claim.

The point is that you are claiming we should lynch Peregrine because he jokingly claimed holy SK.

That's fucking dumb.

WHY WOULD YOU ROLECOP A CLAIMED VT?

AND WHY THE FUCK DID SILVER CLAIM VT THEN ASK FOR HIMSELF TO BE LYNCHED OVER ANOTHER CLAIMED JK D1?

[ZeL1nK]

Actually, he didn't claim VT D1. But regardless, he did claim VT D2 and he did try to martyr himself for another claimed JK D1.

[ZeL1nK]

Actually, thinking about it rationally, rolecopping a claimed VT was probably smart.

I still have an issue with Shotty not claiming it was a "town JK" result right up until I questioned him about it. I also have an issue with the result if it's actually true, because silver's play makes absolutely no sense if he actually is a town JK. Also shotty outing the result is stupid (I think I specifically told him not to in #2724).

[ZeL1nK]

Well, to be fair, assuming Shotty is town, him saying "silver is town" would be stupid because he's given VT results for every other person he's rolecopped.

If he didn't claim the role, he'd be in even more shit.

He shouldn't have claimed his result, though. He should just have said there is another town JK in this game, because if that town JK doesn't die and claims when it's time to MC, then they'd be conf.town anyway (assuming shotty is town).

[ZeL1nK]

hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[ZeL1nK]

I totally wasn't paying any attention to the thread while it was happening,

What's the point of this line of questioning?

[ZeL1nK]

You're trying to give the appearance that you're scum hunting, but you're not actually.

Those are shit questions.

[ZeL1nK]

That's one of the most useless VCAs I've ever seen, and Banshee is 1.775, not 1.35.

All right, so far I've derived that you weren't paying any attention during the last day ... or, for that matter, for a while.

You know how I know you're scum. Because if you were town, scum would have killed you already; you're that smart.

[ZeL1nK]

And Izak is 1.775, too.

Fuck yeah, I have the lowest score. Do I get a prize?

[ZeL1nK]

So I take it that means you think there's 6 scum alive in 14 players?

Who were your suspects before doing that VCA?

[ZeL1nK]

btw. here's what's obviously wrong with your VCA:

You're assuming a 50/50 split all the time, even on scum lynches.
You're not taking into account the "cop" result that led to andrew's lynch D2.
Your VCA is based on 8 players all knowing they're scum together - essentially you're suggesting a single 8-man scum team

And, well, it's not actually an analysis of any sort.

Who are your suspects?

If we're both alive tomorrow, ask me again. I've read maybe 2% of the last 50 pages. Might do some sort of catchup tomorrow.

VOTE: Shotty

If there are six scum remaining aren't we at LYLO?

Presumably there's an SK or something. I highly doubt there's 6 scum from a single faction that began with 8

[ZeL1nK]

1. Actually the number expected wagons is based on a raw percentage of scum expect left multiplied by the number of players on the wagon.

This is a complicated way of saying "I assumed a 50/50 split".

2. The Cop result isn't relevant. Scum are going to 'hop' on a Cop result to position themselves on the wagon when they know their partner is busted.

This is exactly why a cop result skews things. You can't assume any sort of split when scum is 'busted'.

The same thing happened with Oversoul's fake-claim actually.

3. No, my VCA is based on 8 total scum. I expect that their is a Non-Mafia scumbag or two of some flavor out there.

Then, presumably, you've factored this into your VCA, because those 1 or 2 non-mafia scumbags would not know who the other scum are, right? Therefore a predicted 50/50 split makes no sense.

4. Yes, making assessments and judgements that lead to a pool of suspects isn't Analysis at all

...

Yeah....

You know exactly what my problems with your "analysis" are. You're not stupid enough to believe that this "raw data" has more meaning than, say, analysing the Vifam-Junpei wagon that popped up D1, or analysing the reasons people were voting or analysing the differences in votecounts from the same day, or like... you know... doing a real VCA.

If I wasn't extremely lazy, I'd do my own. But I am. So I won't.

[ZeL1nK]

Yes.

[ZeL1nK]

Hey David.

There's 111 pages.

If you don't already have enough information, then there's something wrong with you.

If you need more information, we can continue this discussion tomorrow if you promise not to NK me.

[ZeL1nK]

I need like 24 hours to catch up on this thread.

I figure if I average like 4-5 pages an hour (starting at D2), I should have a catchup post done by tomorrow around this time.

Somewhat busy right now so this is about as fast as I'm going to go.

[ZeL1nK]

This is going to take a bit longer than I said it would (I'm really, really lazy and getting this done very, very slowly).

20 pages into my reread, this is what I think so far:

scum: nero cain, davidx
town: vezok, meransiel

Also don't feel great about leon-myst, silver, izak.

Will have to continue this after some sleep.

[ZeL1nK]

See, another problem with MoI's VCA is that it dosen't take into account any of the circumstances around the lynch (and it doesn't take into account actual play, which he already sort of accounted for).

For example, he's clearing DavidX purely for being in the non-voters on the D2 andrew lynch (which included andrew + Oversoul), but here's the thing... DavidX was only in the non-voters temporarily; he unvoted when andrew was at L-2 because shotty needed to answer questions or something. As for Nero/Meransiel being cleared because of the early clump on the Silver wagon, I'd say it's not likely they're scum together, but I wouldn't clear both of them just because they were on a wagon early with someone who's already flipped scum.

Still, I could agree they're probably not the best place to start looking for scum.

I didn't realise Leonshade was replaced by Mysterio when I started reading through yesterday (just assumed Leon was already dead). This jilynne wagon early: Jilynne 4 - Pinky, Vifam, Nero, Leonshade <- needs attention. I refuse to believe that was 4 townies jumping on an easy lynch. Also Leonshade's play at the point I'm up to has been pretty crap anyway.

[ZeL1nK]

I didn't realise Leonshade was replaced by Mysterio when I started reading through yesterday (just assumed Leon was already dead).

Wait, yes I did. I've mixed up some notes on something somewhere. Whatever

[ZeL1nK]

OK, so I'm still reading through this game... slowly...

I'd be really, really comfortable with a Mysterio lynch.

People I think are town: Meransiel, Jakalope, vezok
People I think are scum: Mysterio, DavidX

I don't think NC is scum if Mysterio is scum, although if Mysterio isn't scum, NC needs attention.
I'm not entirely sure what to think of Fourseen right now, but the non-goon thing and the apathy towards the game make me think he's less likely to be scum here.
Banshee seems to be trying really, really hard here. I'm inclined to lean town right now (just because Banshee is about the only player that gives a shit about the game) but in my initial read through this thread, I had Banshee+Shotty pegged as scum on D1, mostly for their reactions to the Zinger wagon I think.
izak is really, really meh. Don't want to try reading too much into his posts until further down the line. Some things he's done have made me think he's town, but then I wonder why it was so very, very hard to get him lynched and why he's been so utterly useless all game. Not a good lynch today, at the very least.
silver I had a town read on for most of the game. I still don't think his D1 play around Zinger was a gambit. The Shotty stuff that happened yesterday was quite weird, though, and one of the main reasons he's not a town read or me.


As for why Mysterio is scum,

On Leon:

My initial thoughts when the game was actually happening and I was participating in D1 were that Leon was town, and I really cannot remember why I thought that. Something he said somewhere made me think it, and I can't find it on rereading.

He was a very low-information poster. A lot of his content was really fluff, and he didn't give much in the way of opinions on people other than who he was voting for (up until people started posting reads lists).

Both the way in which he jumped on the Jil wagon and his position on the Jil wagon were really suspicious. (FTR, this was the jil wagon: Jilynne 4 - Pinky, Vifam, Nero, Leonshade <- and I really do not believe that was 4 townies on a townie, which is why I think at least one of Leon-Myst and NC is scum, more likely Leon-Myst)

His jump on the Vifam wagon was equally suspicious, and the second time he's jumped on a wagon for not much of a reason while providing very little information.

And then, predictably, he joined another town wagon, Zinger, and stayed there for the entire day, using the "well, you lied, gotta lynch you!" defense to justify his vote.

Also, if Mysterio is scum, #993 is worth reviewing because 4 of those 5 players in his reads list are still alive. I personally think that reads list is trash and he was just commenting on mainstream wagons and calling them all scum (other than DavidX who he was null on and required a re-read).

His D2 posts were really, really dodgy in hindsight. He questions shotty a little bit in #1529, but it seems more like "hi, I'm your scum buddy!" than genuinely questioning shotty.

And #1698 is just an intersting read, given the flips so far.

As for Mysterio himself, so far his content can be summed up as:

Vote Oversoul, claim he's either town or he bussed, Vote Castle Bravo, berate Rodion for not wanting to lynch claimed scum, Vote Castle Bravo again (after the Rodion modkill), complain about Castle Bravo's play after he was lynched and complain about having to deal with Shotty, Vote Shotty, point fingers at Peregrine, ask silver

"what makes you think I'm scum?"

And that's it. Rather unimpressive, although I guess that's slightly hypocritical given my play in recent game days.


tl;dr of it: Haven't seen any genuine scum hunting from his slot all game.

VOTE: Mysterio

[ZeL1nK]

any particular reason or is this simply a case of "I'll repeat it often so people believe there's an argument behind it"?

Both.

Any particular reason for the apparent 180 that you've taken?

Re-reading things in context.

And you make an interesting case on Mysterio, but he was confirmed non-Goon by KJ.. do you believe he's Scum PR?

He'd have to be then, wouldn't he? I'

Confirmed non-goon means very little to me unless someone can tell me the number of scum PRs left. So far we've had one goon flip, one neighbouriser flip and one rolecop flip, and given the strength/number of town PRs that have died so far, I'd say we're looking at another 2-3 scum PRs and 1-2 goons.

Do you think he's scum or town? And what's your opinion on silver? More specifically, what's your opinion on shotty's whole "silver is JK and town" "no wait, he's scum vote: silver"?

[ZeL1nK]

Also interesting to note is andrew's RVS vote followed by #137, in light of the flips so far.

[ZeL1nK]

David.

Sum up the reasons you were voting Peregrine, your thoughts on Silver and your thoughts on Fourseen.

[ZeL1nK]

I'm not voting to lynch Fourseen. I'm fine with a Mysterio, DavidX or even Pere lynch as a last resort.

I also think if Peregrine is SK (which is entirely possible), he's not a compulsive killer, which would explain the lack of kills in recent nights. I also think Shotty thought he'd be able to 'prove his towniness' or something by getting Pere-SK lynched.

[ZeL1nK]

Some shit happened IRL after D2 hit and I lost interest in this game for like the next 3-4 game days. Which kind of sucks, because I think if I'd put a little more effort into this game around the middle, I might have been able to change things, or at least steer town in the right direction. I played like crap and lurked far too much in this game.

Oh well.

Banshee played well, I think. I thought she was scum at the end of D1, but the fact that she was the only player in this game that seemed to give a shit at the end made me hesitant to pursue this read.

DavidX I thought was rather obvious scum, if anyone cared to go back and look at his D1 play. Nero as well, after the Mysterio and Silver flips, because there was absolutely no way at least one scum did not jump on that jilynne wagon when it formed, and Nero's push on Silver all game was really, really meh.

[ZeL1nK]

I do recall we made a case against DavidX that was pretty much ignored.

Yeah, you did, but at the time I thought it was rather weak and I was more "sure" about izak. It wasn't until I realised I was most likely wrong about izak and started actually going back and looking over the game that I started seeing DavidX as scum, not only based on what he was posting and his defensive nature, but based on his opportunistic votes and his position on different wagons.

[ZeL1nK]

Actually, Rodion and GreyIce did most of the work for scum. izak was a close contender for scum MVP. Scum got carried by those three.

[ZeL1nK]

izak was the main reason you got so many mislynches in later days. Lynch-happy and unwilling to step back and look at the game properly. I'm not blaming him for his reads being off, but he never once stopped to consider, "hey, I might be wrong!" it was just "THAT PLAYER IS SCUMMY, LYNCH HIM, LYNCH HIM NOW!!!!" He was the driving force behind the last 3 mislynches because he was unwilling to reconsider his reads, and it's why I could never get any sort of town read on him.

Even on the last day, he was asking questions of players, but was in a rush to lynch Peregrine for some reason. Even if Peregrine really was SK (a non-compulsive SK), town was screwed unless there were less than 3 mafia left. And if he thought Peregrine was mafia, why didn't he stop to think, "Hey, why would Shotty call his scum partner a SK?"

[ZeL1nK]

Nah coz then town just has to realise it's MyLo, no lynch, someone other than Banshee dies, people go "hmm, something isn't right here..."

Or theoretically that's what should happen when the guy who everyone is calling town is somehow left alive at LyLo