Mini 1198 - Marketplace Mafia - Game Over

[Ethos]

Bullshit. I know where Cop is. (WITH ME) I know it's been bid for. I know damn fucking well your replacements lying, and now you're back peddling to save your own ass. Lynch the scumbag, guys. Both of the replacements have been lurker scum that have been peddling hard to remove me. MS only asked to replace when caught in an obv lie, and bob had been lurking all day with no good input at all.

1. No one is stating that you don't have cop, GI is just stating he believes you have cop as mafia.
2. Lurking alone isn't a scumtell and bobs actions on the WLC lynch wasn't "No good imput at all".
3. If you are that confident that LLD, GI and Newman are ALL scum you would have no problem being lynched as it would be near autommatic win.

Really...did any of you read LLD's post...'I'll vote for Ghost tomorrow if we prove there's more than one scum team...' was the synopsis. Not a bloody likely bet unless she already knows the answer is going to be yes, and frankly that's her only justification to lynch the Cop anyway.

1. You wouldn't be a cop tommorow as all of your investigations would be used up.
2. Her reasoning for doing so is explained in much more detail and it involves the likelihood of scum aiming for cop if there's two scum-teams in comparison to one scum team.

Who won the doctor on day 1? It was the ONLY protective role, and the NK didn't go to town, so your target is confirmed town. Rather want to know this since we know the night kill holder for today and if the CONFIRMED TOWN dies overnight we can speed lynch scum tomorrow too.

I've been thinking about this a bit more recently, with the person with nightkill having claimed inthread there's really no risk in the doctor claiming and revealing their saved even if the saved isn't completely clear due to the possibilty of WLC having NK.

Last notice was Ethos was outbid for it. I asked if he was going to raise bid, with intent to do so if he did not, but didn't receive an answer, so did not bid on it.

I got watcher, I ended up having to place roughly 4-5 separate bids on it because I was constantly outbid and ended up using much more funds on it then I had hoped to spend, though the fact that mafia were so intent in attempting to oubid me for it (They would have bid $99) means that they likely have some visiting role at the current moment.

[GreyICE]

Instead of the doctor declaring, there is the possibility that WLC bought NK and then was lynched and so it was unused.

Okay, see, Ghostlin is confirmed scum to me, so he turbo bussed his buddy with the NK that quickly? Nahhhh.

Whoever the doctor targeted is the next best thing to confirmed town.

Plus I have reasons for this.

[Seacore]

I think we wait until tomorrow for the doctor to claim his/her targets. That way that doctor is all used up.

Actually, you're right. hiphop has the NK tonight, plus there's a watcher around.

I was the N1 Doctor. I targeted Red Coyote. I didn't think I'd win both that and the setup. I have little money now.

[hiphop]

GreyIce- You said that you were being bidblocked is a possibility as to why your bid didn't take effect. How is it that scum would know that you bid on the cop in the first place? So that would make ghost scum how?

Seacore- I am not killing a null read. Period.

And yes I won the Nk.

[GreyICE]

I think we wait until tomorrow for the doctor to claim his/her targets. That way that doctor is all used up.

Actually, you're right. hiphop has the NK tonight, plus there's a watcher around.

I was the N1 Doctor. I targeted Red Coyote. I didn't think I'd win both that and the setup. I have little money now.

Okay, rock and roll.

I've just started phase 1 of this plan. That is, transfer all my money to RedCoyote. Phase 2 is as follows, the advertising. I want the possibility of an advertised night kill showing up out of the picture. Basically, we're WAY ahead of scum in income tomorrow, because Ghostlin is dead. So them collaborating to win the 2nd NK is at its absolute nadir.

The advertised night kill possibility gets more and more dangerous, and more and more possible as the game drags on, so I basically want it lightning rodded. If someone else gives RC at least some, with my cash that should give him enough dough to guarantee winning an advertised night kill tomorrow.

Basically, the advertising mechanic is really powerful, and I'd like to stop the pro-scum abilities showing up late game. Giving RC enough money to win it will make it basically a 1-shot vig, rather than a late game 'ninja look now we have a new ability.'

Along the same lines, we might want to advertise shitty abilities that suck for the town in LyLo (Love Potion, Vote Nullifier, and Extra vote all stood out) early and then have the winner 'ground' them. Worst case, we'll know the scum spent lots of money to win, and also that they have the ability. Having a ninja 'Extra vote' or 'Love potion' pop up at the wrong time is bad news.

But worst of the worst is the NK, and I think we advertise that and ground it on RC tomorrow.

Everyone agree?

[Seacore]

Sounds good to me.

[Ethos]

Only have a minute as I'm in the middle of babysitting but your plan is greatly flawed GI, and the reasoning behind why it is flawed is quite obvious.

NK is guarenteed to be in EVERY days auction pool therefore doesn't need to be advertised.

[Ethos]

Got an extra minute. Advertising just allows a guarentee that a specific ability is up for auction the following day, therefore if X is the leading advertised item then X will show up on the next days bidding possibilties however if X is already up for auction the next day no extra charges of X are given. Since Night-kill is always up for auction advertising for nightkill does nothing other then waste funds.

Slaxx gets back from his vacation sometime today, going to have a conversation with him about everything that has occured when I catch him online and we should have all our thoughts up then along with a potential change of vote.

[IceGuy]

Okay, see, Ghostlin is confirmed scum to me, so he turbo bussed his buddy with the NK that quickly? Nahhhh.

Don't forget there are at least two scum factions.

Still,
VOTE: Ghostlin

The exchange between GreyICE and Ghostlin made me rethink my weak scumread, mostly based on lurking, on MS. GreyICE seems to be a genuine scumhunter, and Ghostlin's answer was terrible. I can imagine scum framing Ghostlin, but I doubt they let cop slip through for WIFOM reasons, so my bet is on Ghostlin-scum using some kind of bid manipulation ability he has.

It would also fit the theory of one "standard" mafia and a "robber" SK. If Ghostlin is the "robber" SK, he isn't interested in the NK - he doesn't need to kill, he just needs money, and Cop has the triple advantage of taking a powerful tool out of the hands of town, finding out who the mafia is, and appearing town by claiming cop.

And yes, my top scumread is still Newman. But since a Newman lynch doesn't seem to be possible today, and I still want at least a little efficiency bonus, I'm voting Ghostlin.

Seacore- I am not killing a null read. Period.

I would like to remind you of my post regarding Newman:

I don't get what you're trying to say in the last sentence, but what makes Newman scum in my eyes are the inconsistencies. For instance, I can simply look through my PM box and simply copy&paste the nest egg, wage, bid amounts, investments, and balances, and it will all add up.

Newman made several SMALL mistakes (189 vs. 190, two invented bids) and claimed he deleted his PMs. Why should anybody delete PMs from an ongoing game, especially if they are important for bookkeeping? If he would be off by, say, $100, I would believe he's town who made a honest mistake (forgot to factor in a bid, or forgot his nest egg, or whatever). But being off by $1 or $2 isn't an honest mistake. Stuff like this happens when you're trying to construct a bid and investment history, and you forget to add a bid fee, or accidentally add in a fee for a bid you're not claiming.

There is literally NO WAY Newman is town. You simply CAN'T make that many and that type of honest mistakes, and he actually admitted lying several times when his current lie became impossible to maintain. See ISOs #16, #23, #26, #32 through #37, #39, and #42.

Along the same lines, we might want to advertise shitty abilities that suck for the town in LyLo (Love Potion, Vote Nullifier, and Extra vote all stood out) early and then have the winner 'ground' them. Worst case, we'll know the scum spent lots of money to win, and also that they have the ability. Having a ninja 'Extra vote' or 'Love potion' pop up at the wrong time is bad news.

Unclaimed Love Potion and Vote Nullifier are worthless in LyLo, since they confirm the protected player as scum pretty much immediately. I agree with you on Extra Vote, since that can fuck town completely.

tl;dr: Ghostlin lynch, Newman NK.

[Magua]

Vote Count 2.8

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

GreyICE (5): Seacore, ChaosOmega, RedCoyote, HellloooNewman, Ghostlin
Ghostlin (3): GreyICE, Lady Lambdadelta, IceGuy
IceGuy (1): Ethos

Not voting (3): PeregrineV, hiphop, malpascp

Deadline is July 20th, at 1:00pm EST (site time).
Coutdown to deadline:

(expired on 2011-07-20 13:00:00)

Most Advertised Ability:

None

[GreyICE]

Unclaimed Love Potion and Vote Nullifier are worthless in LyLo, since they confirm the protected player as scum pretty much immediately. I agree with you on Extra Vote, since that can fuck town completely.

tl;dr: Ghostlin lynch, Newman NK.

The major one I'm worried about is the spare night kill, no question. Down with advertising it and making sure RedCoyote gets it tomorrow?

[Ethos]

The major one I'm worried about is the spare night kill, no question. Down with advertising it and making sure RedCoyote gets it tomorrow?

Advertising just allows a guarentee that a specific ability is up for auction the following day, therefore if X is the leading advertised item then X will show up on the next days bidding possibilties however if X is already up for auction the next day no extra charges of X are given. Since Night-kill is always up for auction advertising for nightkill does nothing other then waste funds.

[GreyICE]

Oh, okay.

Well lets abort one of the annoying abilities then. Give RC Roleblockerx3? That's a fairly friggin powerful thing in the hands of conf. town.

[Ethos]

Looking through the abilities and items auctioned for tommorow I believe we need to make sure conf town gets Night kill, Roleblocker and ability to be the only one who knows what the current bid is for all the auctions.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Not voting (3): PeregrineV, hiphop, malpascp

You could be voting Scum Ghostlin.

[GreyICE]

Looking through the abilities and items auctioned for tommorow I believe we need to make sure conf town gets Night kill, Roleblocker and ability to be the only one who knows what the current bid is for all the auctions.

The only problem is that if the auctions end simultaneously then it's likely if RC splits his cash that scum could just pool it and overbid him (since cash is tied up in bids).

Like, RC has $500, he does $300 on the NK, $200 on the RB, and scum put $225 on the RB, then it's going to scum.

Plus it minimizes the risk if they do get some sort of RB ability that we have a bunch of abilities shut down.

I'd rather see cash pool on strong town reads - Seacore, you, or LLD for me - and then have those people toss ALL their money on the agreed high-priority abilities to keep away from scum.

Like RC bids all on NK, Seacore bids all on RB, LLD bids all on Extra vote or something like that.

[malpascp]

Well, no other choice. I don't understand why is GreyICE at L-2.
Ghostlin should be there right now.

Let me help:

Vote:Ghostlin

[Ghostlin]

Really, guys. The bid manipulation

theory

is lame. Odds are GI's lying to us.

Here are a few facts:
1) I have not bid on NK all game long.
2) I won Cop with a $99 bid that I only used $95 of. I'm REALLY confused why.
3) Even if I am scum, (I'm not) if there are in fact two scum factions, you'd get a greater bang for your buck waiting till tomorrow to lynch me.
If I was Weyoun's partner, I would be using that ability to lynch the second scum faction in order to get scum lynched I don't know.
If I was on the other scum team, I would be trying to find the remaining scum

Bluntly, what makes LLD suspicious is her going 'if there are two scum teams, then I'm lynching Ghostlin tomorrow'---why is that relevant? If I was scum that somehow both manipulated the bid and won, it wouldn't matter if I was on one big scum happy family or two disparate families unless she was trying to lynch competition.

Honestly, all GI has bluntly is the 'uh, uh, MS didn't lie and 'lol Ghostlin didn't vote for him right away'; which I was voting for Newman who also seemed to lie about his funds/bids. Bluntly, I don't know why you guys are entertaining lynching me when it's much more likely GI and HN are lying to you.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Ghostlin, that logic for suspecting me is total bullshit. Good job flailing though.

[Seacore]

Unvote. Vote Ghostlin

[Ethos]

Sure Town: (Seacore, Hiphop, RedCoyote)
Likely Town: (GreyICE, LLD)
Leaning Town: (Chaos, Mal)
Null: (Newman)
Scum: (Icey, Pere, Ghostlin)

Vote Ghostlin

-Ghostlin was most likely bus on the WNC wagon (Basically Reg and I thought that wagon happened too smoothly for it to likely be all town: RedCoyote pushed the lynch and is obvtown now, LLD is likely-town, Hiphop+Seacore are obvtown. Only other possible bus on there is Newman.)
-GreyICE's initial willingness to lock votes in between him and his pseudo-CC
-Ghostlin's overall reaction to the situation has been relatively more scummier than GreyIce's
-Ghost's failure to grasp GI's reason for voting him (GI asserts that Ghostlin isn't looking into what caused the confusion, but rather Ghostlin is just pushing on GI)

[Lady Lambdadelta]

That's L-1, for those who care.

[Ethos]

Indeed it is.

Hip, I know newman lied, but I still think Ice/Pere are better targets. His actions prior to that fiasco just scream town.

[Seacore]

I'm cool with Newman, Ice or Pere being the NK target tonight. I shan't be protecting any of them.

[ChaosOmega]

unvote, vote: Ghostlin