[Mini 1208] Mafia in the Scarlet Monastery (Over)

[Valern]

yessssssssssssssssssssssss


/confirm

I'm not familiar with many of you, but I've lurked enough to be familiar with enough of you to know this game is going to be

amazing

.

[Valern]

Woah. Five pages and one person dead already?

So far the only thing that's jumping out at me is the Reckoner-Fate thing. I've read around enough to know that Fate is really good as either alignment, but prior to 116 Reckoner doesn't seem very concerned with figuring out Fate's alignment despite Fate being a capable player who's all over him like a fat kid on cake. He seems more concerned with deflection than scumhunting.

VOTE: Reckoner

I could see Parama going either way right now but I'm not thrilled about the earliness of the kill.

Oh - and I'm alliance, blech.

[Valern]

Post 86/87.

Fate: "reckoner is scum"
Reckoner: "/ignore
let's talk about factions!"

If you're town, then you know Fate is wrong and are therefore in a better position to determine his motivations regarding you than someone who's going after someone whose alignment you're unsure of. But instead of commenting on his motivations you seem to be primarily concerned with defensiveness.

If you're not scum, then who is, and why aren't you more interested in finding them out?

[Valern]

Kiwi is lowhanging fruit imho, and Seacore is trying to chain lynches. Reck's unvote is ++ townpoints.

Seacore-

If you think Kiwi is trying to protect/distract from me (ie you think we're scumbuddies) why are you avoiding my wagon?

UNVOTE: Reckoner
VOTE: Seacore

[Valern]

lowhanging fruit = one of those people who is relatively easy to get lynched regardless of alignment

[Valern]

well obviously I'm biased because I know my alignment, but I don't really see how you could think it was a distraction tactic. It was pretty clear to me that kiwi was joking about the fact that Parama hasn't talked about much other than RBT, and Fate hasn't talked about much other than the fact that he thinks Reckoner is scum, so they have a "post restriction" hahaha isn't it funny etc.

Additionally, I'm not sure why you think premature claiming is a scumtell. If anything, I think it's probably a town tell.

CHRIST ON A STICK, NINJAS

[Valern]

OK, I'm just gonna bite my tongue about my theory disagreements for now as I don't think that will get us anywhere. I think there's more town motivation for premature claiming than there is scum motivation to lock oneself into a claim early under no pressure, but w/e.

Let's pretend, for the sake of argument, that I'm scum and Kiwi is my scumbuddy and I'm under pressure oh noes!

Why would Kiwi move the spotlight onto himself and not someone else who is

not

scum?

also, you claimed earlier to not think I'm scum,

but

you think I'm scum if Kiwi is scum, and you're voting kiwi so you obviously think kiwi is scum. so then why are you telling me that you don't think I'm scum? Am I missing something or are you logic failing?

[Valern]

OK, Reckoner is confirmed town. IDK about Fate yet.

The timing of the Brian-wagon right after Reck's claim rubs me the wrong way. Aside from him seemingly forgetting about me I think his 286 is towny, and Seacore definitely needs more attention for saying he believed Reck's claim but leaving his vote on him.

[Valern]

Whoops, I completely forgot to mention

I'm V/LA this weekend

.

I'll catch up if I have time but I probably won't until Monday. Sorry!

[Valern]

Ugh.

claim: Night Elf Rogue

I have the ability

Shadowstep

, which allows me to vanish and reappear behind another player. I'm immune from all night actions if I do this, but if I target scum I die, and if the person I hide behind is killed, I die too. I can only do this every other night.

I targeted Brian, because I had a town read on him but didn't think he was considered obvtown enough to get killed. I would have breadcrumbed this in case I died, but I wasn't around when the lynch happened. e.e

So, bad news is, Reckoner's ability is wasted. Good news is, Brian is confirmed town. More bad news is I'm probably dead tonight. =(

Seacore is still scum and even moreso now for that terrible kiwi wagon (and obvious egging kiwi on for an easy D1 mislynch). My second suspect is Ellibereth for votehopping/ridiculously bad Kiwi vote. I'm not actually crazy about Friend, either, but but I kind of doubt that all the scum were on the Kiwi wagon + Ellibereth is bussing both of her buddies (iso 23) so I doubt they're scum together. Fate is a suspect too, if a lesser one - but it's less a result of his actions which seem like typical Fate from what I've seen (and therefore null-townish) and more the fact that no one on the 1v1 died (and no one died at all) which is just really freaking weird. I thought for sure one of them was a goner if it was town v town, and I still have a town read on Reckoner from D1 so this makes Fate look bad imo.

VOTE: Seacore

[Valern]

Valern
if you died what would you flip.

I'd flip my race/class I assume, but I don't know if my ability would show up in the lynch/nightkill scene when I die or not if that's what you're asking. I could ask the mod if you think it matters. *shrug*

I do not buy that Fate is town. So I'll gladly reject your offer to accept it, but thanks.

Valern, what's your experience with WoW?

I played vanilla for about a year then quit around the time BC was getting mega-hyped because I didn't want to go through gearing/levelling my character all over again. That was a while back, but I log a few hours into a private server every once in a while still.

Yeah, comparing this game to Deadmines, if both Val and Reck are telling the truth, we may have lots of weaker roles rather than 3 strong roles.

That being said, there seem to be lots of "unlikely" things happening. No NK + Reck either hitting scum with his ability or hitting the one person that it won't work on. Unless Val was the NK target as well... but why would he be? I dunno, my gut reaction is to not believe Val, or at least not believe Val enough to stay the lynch. I just get suspicious when I see a lot of unlikely things happen in one go.

In other news, my bad on Kiwi. I was so sure that I was on to a winner there! That being said, I'm not totally unhappy about kiwi not being in end game. Val's lolcase on me makes him look guiltier in my eyes, but that's probably a little OMGUS creeping in. I'll wait until Elli has done his thing, not sure quite what he's doing but I'll refrain from commenting for now.

I've got a busy weekend ahead of me but I'll have a look over D1. I do have a small idea, and that is that maybe Fate and smargaret are scum together.
Fate was big on lynching Reck and then switched to lynch kiwi (which I was cheering about at the time) but then he jumped on smargaret about her vote on Reck. That to me seems a decent distancing action "How dare you! You are totally scum for that, trying to protect your scumbuddy Kiwi (who I know won't flip scum). ... Oh kiwi was town? Well my case on smargaret goes away..."

Meanwhile, Brian raises the "Fate and Reck and both town" argument
Reck replies that he disagrees
Smargaret then posts "One of Reck and Val must be scum" In a way continuing the discussion but swapping Fate out of the spotlight.

Anyway, that's it for me.

Of course you're ok with my lynch when I'm the main supporter of yours. I could have predicted this post pretty much word for word. I don't think he really believes what he says, either -- he says he doesn't believe me, ergo I'm scum, but in the same paragraph he considers that maybe there was no NK because I was targetted by scum, but why would I be targetted by scum if I

was

scum like he claims to think I am if he disbelieves me, and why is he trying to twist this around as another reason to disbelieve me when he says himself the lack of NK probably doesn't even have anything to do with me? (and if he doesn't believe me, why isn't he voting me? Afraid to commit to town power mislynch?)

In fact the only way that paragraph even makes sense to me is if I read it from the perspective of "I know you're town but I'm going to say I disbelieve you anyway because I can't let you be confirmed". The wifoming just smacks to me of inside info.

So Seacore is scum too?

Its what I've been saying.

So why aren't you voting him...? Or anyone, for that matter?

[snip]Reck is obv fucking town from D1 meaning it's Valern.

[snip]

Valern, let's pretend you aren't lying for a second. Did the person you hid behind claim Alliance or Horde?

IDK, why don't you look it up yourself? There's no indication in my role PM that faction matters for my ability. And why are you turning this into a 1v1 thing when that's not what it is at all?

Who the fuck roleblocked me?

ROLEFISHING ALERT

FOS: Hinduragi

[Valern]

If you aren't lying, Reck targeted the person you hid behind. Meaning we could have confirmed scum if you flip town. You didn't think about this. I wonder why? Oh wait, no need to answer: you're fakeclaiming.

Um no?

He said his action FAILED when he tried to target ME, not the person I hid behind (which you'd know was Brian if you were actually paying attention and not just trying to push a power role lynch). Night actions targeting me do not get redirected to another person, they merely miss me entirely.

what is this i dont even



@Fate, why is Seacore not on your scumlist?

[Valern]

Bleh, can't you at least give a reason? I don't see it at all. -.-

I'm totally hiding behind him N3 if he's not dead by then. And when I die that night you can fucking powerlynch him, m'kay?

[Valern]

Hey look people are mentioning seacore, so I'll jump to him.

Speaking of things that feel like flails, nice misrep. I've been voting you since D1 and I think before anyone else started to suspect you.

But hey, it worked getting Kiwi lynched so why not try to do the same thing to me, amirite?

[Valern]

1- V/LA =! lurking. I'm somewhat unavailable most weekends due to a new job.

2- Just because I don't make a pretty 5000 word wall of post-by-post analysis doesn't mean I don't have a case on you. I've clearly stated more than enough reasons to have my vote on you throughout my posts.

[Valern]

I don't get the Smarg wagon, either.

[Valern]

EBWOP: Wow, L-1 already? Yeah, that is one scumtastic wagon right there. Not surprised to see Seacore and Elli on there.

[Valern]

I'm aware of that, but I really don't get this wagon. Smarg's been scumhunting and hasn't shown nearly the amount of opportunism people like Seacore, Elli, or Friend have.

[Valern]

[off topic post is off topic]

And yes, Sartre <3

BTW Smarg, based on your avatar you might like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-uQWNd540I

Star wars. Sartre quotes. What's not to like?

[/off topic]

[Valern]

Smarg has got to be lying.

VOTE: Smarg

[Valern]

Heh, I like to think my persistent voting/commentary on Seacore did

something

to help keep him alive once I was dead. At any rate, he didn't gain as much heat as he probably should have.

Our biggest potential blunder was targeting Fate for the kill N1. I was NOT happy about Hindu overriding what Seacore and I wanted and insisting on a Fate kill, but it all turned out OK. That might have been the most unfortunate successful doctor save ever, though.

[Valern]

PS. Glad you liked the fakeclaim ^^

[Valern]

/in for next