Succession Mafia II: OVER!


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Post Post #3175 (ISO) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 1:07 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

Yos wrote:Also, your plan seems to be assuming that everyone who's claimed is both telling the truth and is still town, which is, uh, iffy at best.


It only relies on the cult-docs (bvoigt has been confirmed by Lady.), the corrupt cops (solid townread on Ludi + Hero confirmed town by him) and the vigs (NS is definitely town I think. Batt I'm less sure which is why he can be Hero's first target in the plan.) to all be town. If anything goes funny (like no protection on a cult-doc or hero where there's supposed to be) then we lynch the person that failed. It only doesn't work if the cult has a roleblocker.

ConSpiracy wrote:Why would scum have fake-claims in games?


Is there a reason they'd have it in a cult-game? ConSpiracy is super-tunneling town.

xvart's lynch is reasonable if only because there's not really that many people to choose from in my plan.

Vote: xvart
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Post Post #3176 (ISO) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:01 am

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

Cobbler, why are you trying to direct the cult docs?

This is an easy way for you(if you're cult) to get the cult docs out of your way.
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Post Post #3177 (ISO) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 6:17 am

Post by ConSpiracy »

Cobbler wrote:Is there a reason they'd have it in a cult-game? ConSpiracy is super-tunneling town.

Okay. What would you have done if you were the second wagon last day with about 3 players that actively suspected you?
Right, fake-claim the most anti-cult power ever.
I don't know if you've heard about WoW-cult mafia, but the GF got as fake-claim a
cult doc.
..
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Post Post #3178 (ISO) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 7:06 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Well, one big problem with your plan, Cobbler, is that if you tell the jailkeeper and the cult docs to not protect me, and then tell the cop to investigate me, there is nothing stopping the cult from recruiting me tonight, after the cop gets his innocent. That leaves me as a "confirmed innocent" who is actually cult.

There's really no way to protect all the key people in your plan from both recruitments and nightkills at the same time.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #3179 (ISO) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 9:30 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

ConSpiracy wrote:Okay. What would you have done if you were the second wagon last day with about 3 players that actively suspected you?
Right, fake-claim the most anti-cult power ever.
I don't know if you've heard about WoW-cult mafia, but the GF got as fake-claim a cult doc...


The flavor isn't about cultdoc. It's about unrecruitable.

Yos wrote:Well, one big problem with your plan, Cobbler, is that if you tell the jailkeeper and the cult docs to not protect me, and then tell the cop to investigate me, there is nothing stopping the cult from recruiting me tonight, after the cop gets his innocent. That leaves me as a "confirmed innocent" who is actually cult.


I figured investigation goes after recruitment.
@Hero: Do you know if investigation happens after recruitment?
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Post Post #3180 (ISO) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 9:33 am

Post by Flameaxe »

Sounds like a pretty big assumption on an already shaky plan. Ill pass.
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Post Post #3181 (ISO) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 9:34 am

Post by ConSpiracy »

Cobbler wrote:The flavor isn't about cultdoc. It's about unrecruitable.

That's not the case. It was about a fake-claim of the most anti-cult role. In this game that is the unrecruitable cult doc (as last game).
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Post Post #3182 (ISO) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 11:31 am

Post by bvoigt »

ConSpiracy wrote:
bvoigt wrote:Finally, why would the cult leaders specifically have a role PM of someone who is unrecruitable?

Why would scum have fake-claims in games?


In most theme games, they have fakeclaims because they've never had a town role PM with the right flavor. But in this game, everyone except the cult recruiters presumably got a town PM at the start of the game. So there would be no need for fakeclaims.

ConSpiracy wrote:
Cobbler wrote:The flavor isn't about cultdoc. It's about unrecruitable.

That's not the case. It was about a fake-claim of the most anti-cult role. In this game that is the unrecruitable cult doc (as last game).


If I'm not mistaken, we're talking about your argument that the cult recruiters would have an unrecruitable PM for fakeclaiming purposes. Even though LLD confirmed the unrecruitable "flavor word," you were saying that I would have had fakeclaim information available. So no, we weren't talking about the cult doc aspect.
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Post Post #3183 (ISO) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 11:46 am

Post by Herodotus »

Nobody Special wrote:Does anyone need me to Officially Claim? I think y'all know who/what I am already anyway.

I don't "know", but I have an idea.
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Post Post #3184 (ISO) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 1:42 pm

Post by Battousai »

Herodotus wrote:
Nobody Special wrote:Does anyone need me to Officially Claim? I think y'all know who/what I am already anyway.

I don't "know", but I have an idea.


Yes, and you need to tell us who you did any ability on. You hinted at vig, but not knowing if scum killed or recruited is important to determining their size and endgame strategy.
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Post Post #3185 (ISO) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 3:46 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

Fourth Vote Count of Day Five:

Replacement for tajo being sought; WOTC still counts.
Possibilities include:
  • popsofctown
  • Amrun

Flameaxe - 3 (Battousai,
populartajo
, xvart)
bvoigt - 2 (Zdenek, ConSpiracy)
Zdenek - 2 (bvoigt, Nobody Special)
xvart - 2 (Magister Ludi, Cobblerfone)
populartajo - 1 (Bunnylover)
ooba - 1 (Yosarian2)
Cobblerfone - 1 (Flameaxe)

Not Voting - Herodotus, Lady Lambdadelta, ooba


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Post Post #3186 (ISO) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 5:06 pm

Post by Magister Ludi »

Why is no one else on this xvart lynch wagon with me and Cobble?
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Post Post #3187 (ISO) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 8:33 pm

Post by Nobody Special »

Battousai wrote:
Herodotus wrote:
Nobody Special wrote:Does anyone need me to Officially Claim? I think y'all know who/what I am already anyway.

I don't "know", but I have an idea.


Yes, and you need to tell us who you did any ability on. You hinted at vig, but not knowing if scum killed or recruited is important to determining their size and endgame strategy.

Annnnd, I'm just not sure whether to claim yet because the Great Debate of whether we're MassClaiming still rages.

I'm happy to claim if it's best and what (most) everyone wants. So far, though, I've only heard from one player.
....what?



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Post Post #3188 (ISO) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 11:45 pm

Post by ConSpiracy »

bvoigt wrote:If I'm not mistaken, we're talking about your argument that the cult recruiters would have an unrecruitable PM for fakeclaiming purposes. Even though LLD confirmed the unrecruitable "flavor word," you were saying that I would have had fakeclaim information available. So no, we weren't talking about the cult doc aspect.

That's why I said
unrecruitable
doc. There hasn't been an recruitable doc in last game (and most likely not in this one either)
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Post Post #3189 (ISO) » Fri Aug 05, 2011 3:02 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Mmm. Cobbeler's plan of directing the cult docs and the vig and the doctor and the jailkeeper and the watcher would result in a town loss almost 100% of the time, I think. We would get a few temporary confimred innocents, but be guaranteeing that the cult recruit one person every night, period, and they could still just kill off the key power roles.

At this point, I'm just trying to figure out if Cobbler is a townie pushing a bad plan, or a cultie who's trying to make the town lose. Cobbler's claim kind of stands out as fairly unlikely to be real as well, it doesn't really match anyone else's claim or make any sense in a cult game.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #3190 (ISO) » Fri Aug 05, 2011 3:13 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

Yos wrote:Mmm. Cobbeler's plan of directing the cult docs and the vig and the doctor and the jailkeeper and the watcher would result in a town loss almost 100% of the time, I think. We would get a few temporary confimred innocents, but be guaranteeing that the cult recruit one person every night, period, and they could still just kill off the key power roles.


A cult being able to recruit and kill in the same night? You tired? Help me come up with a better plan then. Help me fix it.
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Post Post #3191 (ISO) » Fri Aug 05, 2011 3:23 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Cobblerfone wrote:
Yos wrote:Mmm. Cobbeler's plan of directing the cult docs and the vig and the doctor and the jailkeeper and the watcher would result in a town loss almost 100% of the time, I think. We would get a few temporary confimred innocents, but be guaranteeing that the cult recruit one person every night, period, and they could still just kill off the key power roles.


A cult being able to recruit and kill in the same night? You tired? Help me come up with a better plan then. Help me fix it.


No, not in the same night. I'm saying that if your plan would actually somehow work, which it wouldn't, the cult could just kill the key power roles instead. We've got one claimed kill-doctor (and possibly mr. Z? i don't know what he's claiming, really) and one jailkeeper, and you want to direct both of them.

I don't think any plan that involves directing the power roles is a good idea. Right now, if both cult docs are telling the truth (which is still a pretty big if; I don't think the theory conspiracy is talking about that the cult might have gotten unrecruitable cult-doc as a safe-claim is all that improbable), then the cult would have to be REALLY careful trying to recruit any of the "high value" targets, or they might fail. This works in our favor. Directing any of the power roles just makes it easier for the cult.

What we should do is just try to lynch cult during the day, and avoid discussing who's going to target who at all, to keep the cult guessing.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #3192 (ISO) » Fri Aug 05, 2011 3:53 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

Yosarian wrote:No, not in the same night. I'm saying that if your plan would actually somehow work, which it wouldn't, the cult could just kill the key power roles instead. We've got one claimed kill-doctor (and possibly mr. Z? i don't know what he's claiming, really) and one jailkeeper, and you want to direct both of them.


Assuming the probably scenario where the cult can kill without a recruited vig, it is desirable for the cult to kill instead of recruiting. In my plan they'd almost certainly have to start at the bottom: Tajo and zdenek. And both of them have been suspected so if they're killed as town, it also fortunately clears them. We could split the difference and have Tajo and zdenek decide randomly/arbitrarily who they protect among bvoigt/lady/hero/Batt. Actually, referencing an earlier post, assuming NS is a recruitable even-night vig, the jailer could target him and a cult doc target you instead, assuming hero targets you or Batt.
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Post Post #3193 (ISO) » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:15 am

Post by Magister Ludi »

Cult will always attempt to recruit over killing anything.

And xvart needs attention guys.
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Post Post #3194 (ISO) » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:48 am

Post by Bunnylover »

I think i've missed a few pages.
Will read them tonight
Show
I have played 25 games:
Town wins : 13
Scum wins : 3
Town loses : 7
Scum loses : 2

I do not attack the player of a post, but the post itself. I would appreciate it if you do the same.
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Post Post #3195 (ISO) » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:49 am

Post by Herodotus »

Herodotus wrote:@Nobody Special: What are your thoughts on Zdenek/Flameaxe?
Nobody Special wrote:
Herodotus wrote:@Nobody Special: What are your thoughts on Zdenek/Flameaxe?

Zdenek seems slightly sketchy to me; I'm quite leery of Flame simply due to occupation (shall we say I've had experience with that type of character?).
Herodotus wrote:@Nobody: that doesn't say much.



I also support paying attention to xvart. Considering D1, he wouldn't have been recruited N1, but there have been 3 full days since during which he has hardly been mentioned.
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Post Post #3196 (ISO) » Fri Aug 05, 2011 8:41 am

Post by ConSpiracy »

@mod, I am V/La this weekend. I should be posting regularly monday again.
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Post Post #3197 (ISO) » Fri Aug 05, 2011 9:04 am

Post by Nobody Special »

Cobblerfone wrote:assuming NS is a recruitable even-night vig,

Every night.

Herod, what more do you want me to say?
....what?



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Post Post #3198 (ISO) » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:25 am

Post by xvart »

Flameaxe wrote:
But the point is you never once said anything to suggest this until you were asked to claim. You just kept plugging along, even saying "well we are mass claiming, who is next? Oh yeah, this person. Claim.


So what is scummy about it then? Obviously it must be pretty damn scummy to vote for the player you have rarely mentioned all game.

Give me a night that I was recruited. Humor me.

It is not scummy to not want to claim. It is scummy to not say anything about not mass claiming unless everyone agreeable and willing until it is your turn to claim. You were cheerleading the claiming the entire time and never once qualified it with "wait, is everyone on board" but instead saying "come on, we're claiming, tajo is next." That is the scummy part, and the fact that you only voiced your alleged opinion after the damage had already been done. Need more scum motivation? You let the claiming go on long enough to know power roles and then said "this is so anti town to claim if not everyone is going to do it."

And finally, the last scum motivation that you seem to dismiss without saying anything about (or are ignoring) is that maybe you are using your original town power (if you have one) for scummy purposes and you don't know how to claim it; or, if cult members can only commit one action per night maybe you have been killing instead of using a power and don't have results for those nights and can't fake claim them.

Bunnylover, 3148 wrote:
"You have something to hide and maybe you didn't talk about what to fake claim in your QT."
- From Xvart.
So are you assuming that he is going to fake claim instead of using his real role?
I really don't how this is so difficult to understand. If he is a bodyguard and didn't guard a claimed power role and instead guarded someone on his team; if he is a redirector and redirected a cult doctor or cop; a roleblocker blocking a cult doctor or cop; etc. etc. With the flavor in this game it is a little more difficult to fake claim results or actions.

Magister Ludi, 3173 wrote:Pings me. Seems cultish when mentioning on day two, when this is quite possible to have happened
Not really sure how this makes me Cult since I commented on something you think was quite possible to have occurred.

Magister Ludi, 3173 wrote:3. Act stupids and asks for clarification around the triangle of Yosarian me and Seraphim claims, also doesn't appear to interested in the results. Is on both of the ABR lynches, but other than that, not much.
I see the point you are trying to make but it isn't really valid since I wasn't asking for the purposes of moving my vote; I just wanted a concise chronology of the events that occurred over multiple multiple pages. Plus, I did reference it later on when talking about Seraphim and how his behavior was suspicious due to him trying to pull the same thing again.

Magister Ludi, 3173 wrote:4.
I'm still processing the Scumputer results but based on my preliminary understanding of DGBs thought process I could probably swing for a Darox lynch.

Seems to deflect thinking off himself, also plans to vote Darox weakly here.
What "thinking" was I deflecting off myself?

Cobblerfone, 3175 wrote:It only relies on the cult-docs (bvoigt has been confirmed by Lady.), the corrupt cops (solid townread on Ludi + Hero confirmed town by him) and the vigs (NS is definitely town I think. Batt I'm less sure which is why he can be Hero's first target in the plan.) to all be town. If anything goes funny (like no protection on a cult-doc or hero where there's supposed to be) then we lynch the person that failed. It only doesn't work if the cult has a roleblocker.
What's scummy is it relies on all those power roles you listed being town already (which is nearly half the town), not to mention directing all of our power roles to doing something else. The classic "look at my left hand while I steal your wallet with my right hand" sort of scam.

Cobblerfone, 3175 wrote:xvart's lynch is reasonable if only because there's not really that many people to choose from in my plan.

Vote: xvart
This is quite the turnaround from your previous commentary on my alignment, and similarly, contingent on everyone that must be town for your plan to work
to actually be town
.

With Cobbler's proposed plan I'm most confident about him being Cult when looking at the sum of his play over the course of the game. Claiming unrecruitable, unclaiming unrecruitable, his scummy plan, and his claim being unbelievable and most likely completely made up. I see the outcome pattern of Cobbler's claims getting people to not target him or that he is untargetable.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Cobblerfone

Once he flips cult we'll have to go back and judge the legitimacy of Flameaxe's vote on him and see if it was a bus on a wagon going nowhere or an actual town vote.
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Post Post #3199 (ISO) » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:35 am

Post by Flameaxe »

I like the part where xvart attempts to set up a second lynch.
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