Mini 1219 - Bedtime Stories Mafia - Game Over!

[implosion]

I'll be honest Thomith, you've scored a few scum points in that little alitercation.

VOTE: hiphop for having a name that is similar to hiplop.

VOTE: Neruz
If Thomith is scummy, why make a second RVS vote?

[implosion]

From the first two pages and some thinking, Neruz is probably town. The only thing his second RVS vote would do (and has done) is draw attention. There's really no scum motivation for making a second random vote (there's no town motivation either, but there is a reason scum would be less likely to do it: drawing attention).

From the first two pages, the one sticking out as the scummiest to me is hiphop, mainly because of how he's pushing on neruz.

As for Neruz- I am trying to lynch scum, what are you trying to do?

Something about this sentence pings my scumdar. I think it's how the sentence not only tries to make Neruz look bad, but tries to make hiphop look good. I just don't feel like the first half of the sentence would be there (or that the second half would be phrased this way) if hiphop were town.

Especially

since hiphop hadn't actually made any clear efforts to find scum at this point (he RVS'd Thomith as his only post before the one I quoted). So essentially: The way that the sentence tries to make Neruz bad without explicitly calling him out as scum or voting him, the fact that it tries to make hiphop look like town and not just Neruz look like scum, and the fact that it's hypocritical in multiple ways (hiphop hadn't made any efforts, yet he calls Neruz out for not making any efforts; hiphop doesn't vote Neruz, even though he's calling out Neruz for not voting someone he gave scumpoints to) make this a scummy post. (note: a few posts later, hiphop explains why he's still voting Thomith; the fact remains that he hadn't done any scumhunting at the point of the quoted post).

Page one made me think Thomith was town. His post about being scum in 4/7 games was, as someone else said, a towntell in that it wouldn't be natural for mafia to say that they've been mafia a lot because psychologically it would put them in the spotlight.

weirdvoigts is probably town. 55 indicates genuine scumhunting, especially with how Thomith has been acting. Their other posts have also felt generally genuine.

Your blatant defense of him, confirms the fact that you already know his alignment.

Oh god more scumposting. First of all: defending someone does not make a given person scum. Implying that it does is implying that no townies have ever blatantly defended anyone, which is just absurd. Second: this sentence just seems way too sure that thomith is scum. I don't see this much certainty three pages in from town.

More coming in a minute, I just wanna make sure this doesn't end up as too much of a wall.

VOTE: hiphop

[implosion]

NOTE: I am blatantly defending Thomith.

We're not talking in absolutes here; we're talking about this specific case of Thomith defending Neruz. And I agree with hiphop...it makes little sense that he's defending Neruz here against a legitimate point for this stage in the game.

I don't understand this - why does it make little sense?

So you are basically assuming everyone that defends someone is scum. So defending someone who you disagree with getting voted for the case on thim is scummy? Good to know.

Your blatant defense of him, confirms the fact

that you already know his alignment.

Stop strawmanning and pay attention to the bolded.

How the hell is this a strawman. The action that you were criticizing was Thomith's blatant defense of Neruz; the bolded is just why you think that makes him scum. Thomith is still correct that you're 'basically assuming everyone that defends someone is scum.' You can apply the same argument (X is defending Y, therefore X knows Y's alignment) to, well, ANY instance of defense.

Thank you for continuing to make baseless assumptions.

See, the thing is, we actually have a good reason to suspect Neruz, and your defense of him is both indirectly implicating him as being scum and making you out to be a suspect as well.

Besides, I don't think you or Neruz have really explained why he would call you scummy and then vote someone else because coming up with a seemingly legit case (however small it was) and the trying to mask things under the guise of RVS smells REALLY fishy.

I'm honestly not sure what to think of this post, but it's notable. I would say it makes voided

probably

town. The second line feels genuine. His pushing on Thomith also feels somewhat genuine.

hiphop:

what's your read on Neruz?

The comment on his high percentage of games as scum was ballsy but for a fairly good player it could easily be a scum gambit.

Here it is. Do you think Thomith is the kind of player who would have said this line as a scum gambit?

I kind of like rainbow's 75, too. It feels genuine as well, specifically the mid-post read change.

I'm going to answer Thomith's question to Bvoigt for him, as we already discussed this and agree. These are the four motivations you may have for defending Thomith:
1. You are scum defending a townie so that if he flips town, you get townpoints.
2. You are scum defending a buddy, this is less likely due to the obviousness of the defense.
3. You are scum defending a townie trying to fake a reaction, but overdid it.
4. You are town defending someone you legitimately think is town.

Those are the four possible motivations I can think of. As you can see that's a pretty good chance that you are scum.

There are four possible motivations, WV, for you pushing a lynch on Thomith:
1. You are scum pushing a townie to get a mislynch.
2. You are scum pushing a buddy to get towncred from a bus.
3. You are scum tunneling on a townie so that you don't have to focus on too many other people.
4. You are town legitimately pushing on someone you think is scum.

Apply the above argument to, well...

every single person in this game.

I guess everyone in this game is probable scum. Oh, wait...

You know that the majority of players possess the Town Win Condition.

Your argument is flawed because just because there are more possible scum motivations than town motivations, it doesn't mean that all four motivations are equally likely. The town motivation is by far more likely than any of the other three

simply by virtue of there being more town than nontown in this game.

Talk about cults is stupid. It was sarcastic to begin with, I'm pretty sure.

[implosion]

So rainbow, wanna join me in voting hiphop? I mean, Beck isn't a particularly bad vote, but there are better ones.

SIGH....

Voided's latest post seems a bit town. Guys I think we're all headed in the wrong direction. Thomith, Neruz, and Voided are all town. I need everyone on this player list to start posting so I can calibrate.

Very much this.

[implosion]

Hey hiphop, why are you ignoring me?

[implosion]

This is basically a blind leap of faith you are asking people to take.

Oh my god, you cannot be serious. This is day one. Rainbowdash gave you reasons. I've given reasons in some post a while ago where i voted hiphop.

"So, you'd like to lynch X? well, isn't calling X scum just a blind leap of faith?"

That argument is MEANINGLESS in the game of mafia where EVERYTHING is a leap of faith, and it isn't blind when reasons have been given.

EB, Neruz, Thomith, Implosion team, lets get this one won. If hiphop really is scum deselby gets to be the final element of harmony. WV gets blasted tomorrow and last pony gets cleaned up day three.

Not sure about WV, but for now, hell yes.

[implosion]

Calling a push for other people to vote with oneself a request for a "blind leap of faith" is like equating me asking you to invest a few bucks in google with me to me asking you to invest a few hundred thousand bucks in google with me.

If that makes sense.

Which it probably doesn't.

[implosion]

Mod: I'm voting hiphop

[implosion]

I'm tired, thomith wagon needs to die, hiphop still probably scum, i haven't read any of his recent posts in any real depth though. I'll hopefully get to a better look at this over the weekend.

[implosion]

GO GO BLATANT PROD DODGE UNTIL TOMORROW WHEN I WILL PROBABLY READ THIS

[implosion]

Voided:

I don't like his first 10 posts (essentially focused on pushing neruz/thomith). I feel like they exaggerate how scummy some events have been (example: post 32's "why the hell aren't you pushing that suspicion?") which is scummy for obvious reasons.

Post 76 (response to EB's case) reads as okay to me. There's really nothing wrong with it, but nothing that makes me think town either.

From post 79:

Or maybe that's their plan, to keep independent and throw us off?

Okay, I'm gonna stop there before I talk myself into oblivion.

This is one of those things that I should be reading as either really scummy or really towny, but I'm not entirely sure which. I think I think it's scummy. I'm not sure if that's what I think. ~

Meh for some reason around 25 I started skimming, and for some reason my gut wants to say voided is town, but i'm going to take a less horrible look at his recent posts, but posting what i have so far because i can.

[implosion]

Meh. Voided's hiphop push feels... right. for some reason. I don't know.

Thomith is obvtown.
Neruz is town, RainbowPony is town.
EB, I don't feel as strongly as PonyDash, but I'll defer.
Ellibereth has 61 posts, of which I've read maybe two?
On brief read of deselby, I don't like deselby. Actually, i

really

don't like deselby. I, in fact, dislike deselby to the point where I think deselby is aligned with the mafia. His ISOs 0-6 just feel... fake. The scumhunting doesn't feel legitimate. It feels more like argumentation and arguments and reasoning for the sake of argumentation and arguments and reasoning than for the sake of genuinely trying to determine who the crazy snow monster alien thingies are. And then we get to ISO 7... he unvotes Thomith, presumably because Thomith claims to be at L-1. But deselby's vote on Thomith

was the L-2 vote

. So, let's look at this psychologically from town and scum standpoints:

TOWN

- He voted Thomith to pressure him, but then at L-1 unvoted to prevent a lynch. Perfectly reasonable. But think for a second - if you're going to put someone at L-2, then IDK, i think it's pretty damn likely that someone else will put them at L-1. Unvoting at that point seems to defeat the original purpose of L-2'ing.

SCUM

- Psychologically speaking. The L-2 vote was an attempt to push a mislynch. The L-2 unvote (since his unvote placed Thomith back at L-2) was an attempt to gain town-cred, or perhaps just overcautiousness. This just makes more sense as scum. I don't see why anyone would put someone at L-2 just to unvote them once the wagon gets to L-1.

Also, I think beck is town. I'm not sure why at the moment, I'll have to get back to you on that.

[implosion]

The pressing Neruz is fine, the issue I have with it is how the diction (specifically the part I quoted) that you used seemed very critical for a relatively minor infraction of an unstated "rule."

[implosion]

Unvote, Vote: deselby

[implosion]

18th to 22nd, i believe.

[implosion]

School starts tomorrow, so. No content right now yay

[implosion]

Beck - town.
Ellibreth - i honestly don't know, but probably town.
deselby* - scum.
Evil Bullet - Probably town.
hiphop - null at this point, with a very, very slight scum lean.
Neruz - town.
Llamarble - who knows.
Rainbowdash -

pony

town.
Sleuth - who is this person
Thomith - town town town town
Voidedmafia - somewhere between null leaning town and town.
weirdvoigts - don't know. mixed feelings at this point.

Someone give me a reason to change my reads, i'm growing bored of them.

[implosion]

I will replace out if I sheep into a mislynch.

Okay, sleuth is PROBABLY town. But don't do this.

[implosion]

doublevoter

[implosion]

My failure to contribute is a mixture of increased meat-world commitment (school) combined with the fact that this game is beginning to depress me. This day is dragging on, and I feel like I don't have enough relatively strong scumreads.

EB is probably town, I honestly cannot think of a role that wouldn't make sense in the same game as an even-night jailkeeper. Rainbowdash is probably town, but they're complicating this game to a point that it really, really shouldn't be complicated to. I'm honestly not even sure if RD is still soft counterclaiming EB.

I still think deselby's slot (Banshee) is scum. Banshee's done nothing that makes me think Banshee is town.

No clue if beck just slipped.

[implosion]

@implosion: Who is your strongest scum read? I am assuming it's still me. So, if you were to successfully lynch me and I flipped town, where would your suspicion land then?

You've given two town reads and one scum read

, do you have ANYTHING else to contribute?

What do you think is the scummiest thing I've done since replacing into the game? What was the scummiest thing deselby did?

@bolded: not true.
@the rest: yes, you're my strongest scumread right now. I kind of skimmed kind of read your ISO, and looking again, one thing that sticks out is post 1034 and its corresponding mini-argument with Thomith. It feels kind of phony. I've explained why I find deselby scummy. The strangest/scummiest thing he did in my opinion was placing Thomith at L-2 then unvoting when he was at L-1, which I went into depth on earlier.

If you flipped town, I'm not sure where my suspicion would go. I'm having the same problem rainbow was earlier, I don't have enough scumreads. This game will be easier to look at once we have some flips; there have been an exceptionally large number of wagons to investigate.

[implosion]

This day is way too long.

[implosion]

I would be willing to lynch VoidedMafia, hiphop or Thomith. Of the three, Thomith gains us the least in information.

Why? Hasn't he probably had some of the most useful connections in the game so far?

[implosion]

Thomith can barely speak without spewing out three or four scumtells. He's had plenty of connections with plenty of people and as I read them they are all pretty much the same as mine, which have ranged from SRSLY? to WTF?

Erm, I've been calling him town the entire game.

[implosion]

Yes, I know. So that's twice you're wrong.

...?

What's your read on me?

[implosion]

@Implosion:
I think you're likely town. Your posts seem to demonstrate real scumhunting at first; however, I think you've come to a conclusion about what it means when someone votes to make it L-2 and then unvotes at L-1 that really isn't based on anything but sheer conjecture. I can't justify it either, since I've no idea why deselby would do that.

I also think at this point you have one scumread and you're going to fight to keep it since if it goes, you won't have any scumreads at all. So you're already suffering from confirmation bias and I doubt I could change your mind short of death. I suspect that explains why you didn't feel any need to question me about any of the things I did since replacing into the game that simply confirmed your scum read on me.

It really isn't confirmation bias per se - it's more everyone starting at 0 at the beginning of the game, and deselby pushing your slot to say, -11, and me not seeing anything from you that makes me think that that number has risen.

[implosion]

Arbitrary rankings are passe.

If we are using them though we should lynch VM based off my arbitrary numbers who is 5 and 3/4 cupcakes in the hole followed by Beck at eleven hooves down. You are at a four. Simply a four.

Basically explain them or don't bother with them.

It was intended to be arbitrary, simply to say that deselby made the slot scummy.

What would it take, precisely, to move up from the -11 that you believe Deselby put the slot to?

I would argue that it really doesn't matter what I do, you're not going to change your mind. Therefore your opinion of me can't really have any bearing on my behaviour. I think if you were interested in verifying or testing your read you'd have asked me some questions, at least to try to figure out who my supposed scumbuddies would be.

Try to figure out some other scumreads, though. Tunneling on one player isn't helping anyone and will leave you stranded when I flip town. However, the way you're doing it it's not scummy; scum would have some back burner options too. It's just not smart.

Being... town?

IDK, I just haven't gotten any particular towntells of note from you like I have from people like RD or thomith etc.

[implosion]

@Rainbow: I'm already voting VoidedMafia.

Thanks for that

Banshee

, that is why you are the element of

Kindness

or possibly in the consideration to be one.

Pre-emptive conversations. Gotta love 'em!

I might nom you for funniest poster.

[implosion]

EB is role confirmed. And almost definitely town. He isn't actually clear, though, just role confirmed, but putting a mafia even night jailkeeper when the town has an odd night vig would be a bit awkward.

ANYWAY: multiquote voidedmafia iso PART ONE:

Hey grey thanks for giving me my nightmare fuel.

VOTE: Parama because you modded and played in a game before this that i was in. Hiphop you're next.

and also i have on been scum 4 out of 7 games...

So that's a claim, huh?

Thomith is town. To imply that a partner claimed scum in one of your first posts is, I'd imagine, a fairly unlikely way to bus.

For me, it's more like, you've already pegged thomith as scummiest out of all of us at this point; why the hell aren't you pushing that suspicion?

Directed at Neruz. I actually think this feels a bit like distancing, but I'll get more into that with the rest of the ISO. It's also important to note that voided was the fourth vote on Neruz - there was already a wagon on him at this point. There are 19 posts between Voided's Neruz vote and Voided's Thomith vote.

Oh, right, if I think you're scum. Had a post on that, then stupidly got it deleted by clicking on a bookmark. But anyways, I checked through the first couple pages up to when I switched to you, and I didn't really see much reason for me to vote you, so I'm gonna

Unvote

.

I still hold Neruz in suspicion, but Evil Bullet is right in that we probably need to either look at things from a different angle or find another place to go to.

Sleuth: How far along are you in reading, and do you have thoughts on what's happened so far?

Cloudocean: Any thoughts on recent events?

Parama:...Are you even going to post?

Sleuth, cloud, or parama is likely scum, which means Elli or llamarble. Not necessarily though.

...Your use of ponies in place of people is slightly unsettling.

But both you and Hiphop have good points regarding Thomith. Could be scum bussing a partner, or town getting a bit too defensive, but I'm willing to go out on a limb about it.

Vote: Neruz

Town don't usually vote for no reasoning apart from in RVS, why would town vote for someone who they can't prove are scum? Wouldn't town want to find evidence before actually voting?

Yet, we're in RVS, somewhat. At this point, that slight scumread he has should be enough. You're just implicating him indirectly and starting to dig your own hole.

He votes Neruz, and also attacks Thomith for defending Neruz. So actually, Neruz probably isn't a bus... meh. attacking someone who's defending a scumbuddy could happen, but meh.

Hmm, must've gotten names wrong.

I actually have original points against Neruz, not Thomith, sorry. So, you'd be right in that I'd be sheepvoting...IF I only used other's reasoning and didn't build off it iwith my own, which I clearly didn't do when I voted you. So, your reason for voting me is baseless until you can think of something better.

This was the quote that made me think it was a bus. He had original points against Neruz, but not Thomith - it's like he's trying to take credit for attacking Neruz, but not for attacking Thomith, which would make them more likely scum together since Voided would be going after towncred for a bus but distancing from the Thomith lynch.

Daytalk is not normal here, and IIRC not a normal game mechanic. You can still see them in Themes (mini or large) and open games games and stuff, just not normals or newbies.

Just thought I'd point this out because it's kind of funny with the encryptor flip.

[implosion]

VOTE: Neruz
I want to see what will happen if I vote for Neruz.

Feel free to keep wagoning me for now, might be interesting to see what happens.

[implosion]

Implosion dying is cool with me. All my yelling about infiltration was aimed at either him or Elli so... Yeah.

Why does this post not include a vote for me?

[implosion]

I want to see what will happen if I vote for Neruz.

So you don't think Neruz is scummy?

I'm unsure if voided was bussing him or not; see the miniwall i just posted.

[implosion]

Thomith, Rainbowdash, and Evil Bullet are all town. Everyone else is to be determined after some recalibration.

I'm glad it isn't day one anymore.

[implosion]

God dammit banshee is town.

[implosion]

If Evil Bullet is the jailkeeper, and Rainbowdash is scum, her claim is likely to get EB to use his power on her, thus controlling its use tonight and presenting WIFOM tomorrow. EB will rightly claim that he jailkept her, and RBD will proclaim that she is somehow semi-cleared by this.

Actually I do not want EB to target me, as I already said. I know a few town ponies probably have a good enough idea of why I didn't get killed given reactions yesterday and today.

Respond to 1239. Do you agree, and if not, then why are both you and EB alive?

[implosion]

@EvilBullet: Thoughts on why scum shot in the unknown pool rather than take out either you or Rainbowdash?

Wifom?

[implosion]

Claim: possibly confirmable power role

There's a good chance that I can confirm my role through night play. I won't claim any more than that, though. If I'm still alive, I'll fullclaim on day four, or if I'm being lynched (which shouldn't happen, seeing as I can be confirmed). I am a PR, so. This is getting kind of ridiculous.

Even

without

me in this setup, it seems like it's probably townsided. So yeah, one of the power role claims is lying.

On the other hand, it's also likely that the mafia is relatively powerful considering that we have an encryptor flip.

popcorn to hiphop.

[implosion]

i'm also really anxious to see what RD claims, but that should probably wait for later in the massclaim.

[implosion]

I am not fullclaiming today. If when I do fullclaim you decide that I didn't have sufficient reason to withhold my full claim, by all means lynch me on the spot.

I do have very good reason not to fullclaim today.

[implosion]

What I've claimed of my role should be enough for that purpose. I don't want to claim the rest just yet for a

very, very good reason

, part of which is to keep scum guessing, and part of which is the fact that i'm probably going to be able to confirm it.

[implosion]

I said I'd fullclaim on day four in post 1349.

[implosion]

Don't worry, it'll all make sense in due time~

[implosion]

And neruz: see sentence two of post 1354.

[implosion]

Why does bodyguard conflict with even night jailkeeper? who did you guard last night?

[implosion]

So I slept on it, and I actually think that all of the power role claims might be real. I have to go to school in like 5 minutes and there's more that I want to say along with my claim, so I'll claim once I'm back.

[implosion]

So. In a nutshell, here's why EB is town.
Look at the claimed power roles: watcher, innocent child, bodyguard, even night jailkeeper, odd night vig. If the town has a watcher, an innocent child, a bodyguard, and an odd night vig, then what use do the scum get from an even night jailkeeper?

It's completely useless against the innocent child and odd night vig. It could stop the watcher, but it could also be seen by the watcher. It could stop the bodyguard, but the bodyguard is weak anyway.

Here's why I think it's possible that the PRs are all real. Assuming they are, the setup has a lot of weak protective roles, and an innocent child. The bodyguard can stop one kill on me, the jailkeeper can stop every other kill on me (if i were to somehow be outed day one). And the watcher could see something happen, but frankly, it doesn't fit in as well... hrm.

If a power role claimant is fake, it's probably hiphop. A scum watcher in this setup would actually make a lot of sense. It could weaken the ultra-synergistic JK/vig combo, and watch the innocent child to see what visits them if they were to claim.

As for Rainbowdash, three things. First of all, bodyguard has synergy with innocent child, but not overpoweredly so. Second, I still think rainbow has in general been towntelling. Third, it's perfectly possible that the scum (and this could be a crackpot theory) decided to watch RD instead of killing (if hiphop is scum) to try to get power roles.

[implosion]

oh. a scum watcher would also make sense with a mafia encryptor. The third scum would

probably

be a goon in that case.

[implosion]

Also, a little ironic note: I was kind of softclaiming bodyguard earlier. sort of. I was going for either bodyguard or just some generic role that can be confirmed later when I was saying I'd claim day four. I also considered a bunch of gambits like claiming 1 shot PGO or claiming a weird role that would die at the beginning of day four (and I would then claim for real at the beginning of day four) but with the claimed power roles, it made more sense to just claim.

[implosion]

Watcher + IC might also be a bit overpowered on their own... meh. I think hiphop is a scum watcher. With one of the vt claims, obviously. it just makes the setup make more sense.

[implosion]

Oh yeah, other fun note: it kind of annoyed me, Rainbow, when you put me on your town list :p. I started lurking probably a bit more than i otherwise would have in an attempt to get off of it.

Also, I honestly think I should have looked scummy after voided flipping scum. His interactions with me and my interactions with him make sense to me if I didn't know my own alignment with me as his scumbuddy.

(of course I wouldn't be saying this if i wasn't confirmed town, so)

[implosion]

The scum in the VTs is most likely either WV or neruz.

[implosion]

And what is this about scum not having a group of 4, my last mini had 4 scum. Perfect win for town.(My only loss as scum ). Voided was one of my scum partners in that game.

That was a theme.

Keep tunneling on me and maybe I WILL lynch you.

This just doesn't feel right. It's a mix of omgus (the kind that's scummy, not the kind that doesn't really matter), a bad reaction to a fos, and implying that he (llamarble) alone controls the lynch, and something about it strikes me as off.

Can you provide examples of that last assertion? Because I think that's BS I've yet to see a scum make that request without any pressure on them. I don't believe I even have a vote on me at this point, despite your empty and pointless threats.

Exactly what I was thinking.

I find that generally people who try and succeed at leading the town, are most likely town

Sorry, but no. People who succeed at leading the town are leaders; if a person leads as town, then they will also lead as scum because 1) they're probably a natural leader and 2) they need to act the same as they do when they're town to avoid being caught. Leading is a personality tell rather than an alignment tell.

Also, why the hell are people wagoning thomith over wv.

[implosion]

Hey grey thanks for giving me my nightmare fuel.

VOTE: Parama because you modded and played in a game before this that i was in. Hiphop you're next.

and also i have on been scum 4 out of 7 games...

So that's a claim, huh?

This is not a scum-scum interaction.

UNVOTE, VOTE: weirdvoigts

[implosion]

So yeah. Can we like stop fail-lynching town-thomith and lynch someone who might be scum

wv is going to need to die at some point, i really have no strong opinions on anything he's done, which in and of itself is probably a bit scummy seeing as he's a hydra

llamarble isn't an awful choice

[implosion]

VT claims, ordered from town to scum

Banshee/Thomith
Ellibereth
Neruz
Llamarble
weirdvoigts

The following things still need to be investigated:
-in depth read of WV
-further investigation of the interactions between voidedmafia and neruz
-possibly more in-depth looks at llamarble and Ellibereth

PR claims, from town to scum

Me (for hopefully very obvious reasons)
Evil bullet
Rainbowdash
hiphop

The following things still need to be investigated:
-possibly more consideration of game balance, specifically: is {innocent child, bodyguard, even night jk, odd night vig} versus {watcher, encryptor, X} a logical combination? Hint: yes it is.
-possibly night action planning
-future claimed actions/results/etc

[implosion]

I am Weirdvoigts' scumbuddy.

Probably.

Frankly I'm more confident of hiphop scum than wv scum but we're lynching in the VTs. I mean... think about it, watcher + innocent child, the combination on its own is a bit overpowered, especially adding in two more protective roles.

[implosion]

i almost want to just lynch hiphop today... i'm honestly not sure if wv would bus here. meh. it's probably better to wait a day at least.

[implosion]

Banshee.

Suppose that all PRs claimed are real, except one of hiphop/EB is a scum version of that power role.
Hiphop fake: scum watcher+encryptor VS IC+BG+even-JK+odd-vig. Doesn't that seem balanced? scum can find the bodyguard or jailkeeper by watching the innocent child, the bodyguard can only stop one kill, the JK can only work on one night. The town has almost no investigative power.
EB fake: scum even-JK+encryptor VS IC+BG+odd-vig+watcher. Doesn't this, if anything, seem town-favored? The scum get almost zero utility from their jailkeeper. It's only useful against the watcher and can be caught by the watcher, and to a lesser extent the bodyguard. Meanwhile, to kill the innocent child if nothing else has claimed, scum essentially have to sack a member without knowing it. I mean, a scum roleblocker would make slightly more sense, but still, putting it in in such a way that it can do nothing against the vigilante is kind of mean.

[implosion]

ninja and strongman are impossible; they aren't explicitly normal, and we have a flipped encryptor.

And meh. I might be willing to lynch neruz.

meh.

lETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS

Mod, I'm voting weirdvoigts, not Neruz.

Also

Unvote

VOTE: Neruz

[implosion]

Stop this wagon.

Ok.

unvote

@Elli, implosion and EB - Who do we lynch?

i don't freaking know.

[implosion]

Bah. wv and llama are probably right... we're trying to lynch scum. hiphop is in my mind very, very likely scum. The game makes much more sense with hiphop scum, and i sort of still have a lingering scumread from earlier irrespective of claims.

I mean, if hiphop is town, we lose the watcher, sure, but even if he is town, at this point, he isn't guaranteed to give us anything. Scum can kill RD tonight by targeting RD or me (essentially); so hiphop would have to guess who they target, meaning that if he's scum, he can just say he was on the wrong person.

I'm pretty sure EB is town based on a combination of scum even JK not making sense and EB just acting kind of town, and RD is just... town, and if RD is scum, it'll become ridiculously blatant as RD doesn't die over the course of the next few days.

so meh. lynching a vt is probably safer. but meh, i want to lynch someone who i'm confident is scum, and the only person that fits that descriptor is hiphop. so.

Unvote

VOTE: hiphop

Possibly my final answer.

[implosion]

is anyone at L-1 yet...

i didn't check, but can definitively say no based on past trends

[implosion]

pedit: Right, yeah, innocent child. That explains the terrible vote; like me Implosion just doesn't care.

It's fun being able to do whatever i want :3

[implosion]

banshee is more town than ellibereth.

[implosion]

unvote, vote hiphop

Who are you jailing if hiphop flips scum?

(If hiphop flips town, don't announce the target in advance).

[implosion]

VOTE: Llama

If by some miracle he flips town, rainbowdash should guard evil bullet so that he lives to night four. Evil bullet should say who they're jailkeeping on night four before night four starts.

There is no way in *HELL* that the scum didn't try to kill me/RD/EB after the mafia watcher flip; either llama is scum or there was a no-kill.

[implosion]

hiphop(L-2) - Beck, Evil Bullet, Implosion, Rainbowdash, Voidedmafia
VoidedMafia (L-1) - EvilBullet, Beck, Ellibereth, Sleuth, RainbowDash, Tomith
Neruz (L-1) -Thomith, Beck, Llamarble, Weirdvoights, Rainbowdash, EvilBullet <------ likely contains the unflipped scum
EvilBullet (L-1) - Thomith, Ellibereth, Neruz, Llamarble, Weirdvoights, RainbowDash <----- probably contains the unflipped scum
VoidedMafia (LYNCHED) - Sleuth, Banshee, Thomith, RainbowDash, Beck, EvilBullet, Weirdvoights,
Thomith (L-1) - Weirdvoights, hiphop, RainbowDash, Neruz, Llamarble
hiphop(LYNCH) - implosion, Llamarble, Banshee, RainbowDash, Neruz, WeirdVoights

[implosion]

...one of whom is also semiconfirmed town and would die in my place and the other who was going to roleblock someone.

[implosion]

ellibereth, banshee, neruz, llama, thomith, wv.
The last scum is in these six (VT claims).

I actually just went through the calculation and it looks like scum make out pretty much the same way killing vs nokilling.

Wrong-o. 9 alive going into today. If scum don't kill (and assuming that we treat me/EB/RD as clear) then it's 6 unclears, 3 clears. If scum do kill, then it's 5 unclears, 3 clears (two power roles and one jailed VT). In the first case, the town gets FOUR chances to lynch the last scum. In the second case, they get THREE chances.

By the way, we don't actually gain another mislynch at this point from a jailkeeper save.

[implosion]

Thomith is the towniest of the VTs at this point, btw.

[implosion]

That order looks pretty good. Not sure who i like better between elli/banshee but yeah.

[implosion]

thomith does not make sense as scum with voidedmafia
thomith does not make sense as scum with hiphop
thomith does not make sense as scum as an individual
thomith does not make sense as scum

[implosion]

I feel like we're pretty resolved that both me and WV will get lynched this game.
Can we just lynch him first? It just feels bad to be on the losing end of a perfect town victory.

ftfy

[implosion]

VOTE: Weirdvoigts

[implosion]

It could theoretically be neruz, but is probably WV. it

definitely

isn't thomith. If it's thomith, then we're doomed. I doubt it's banshee or ellibereth.

JKing banshee is fine.

[implosion]

It's gotta be Banshee or WV. Thomith and Neruz can't be it. Ugh.

It's gotta be Elli or Banshee. If it's Elli we're probably doomed.

Seeing these two posts not just on the same page but posted close enough together to be seen in the same screen made me lol.

[implosion]

Three is an odd number.

[implosion]

If weirdvoigts flips town, Neruz is probably scum.

[implosion]

*yawn*

[implosion]

Alive:

Ellibreth
Banshee
Evil Bullet
implosion
Neruz
Thomith

If non-banshee scum kills EB, the situation becomes 2 clears, 3 unclears.
If non-banshee scum no-kills, the situation becomes 2 clears, 4 unclears.

So no. scum had very good reason not to kill you last night, EB, regardless of whether or not that scum is banshee.

[implosion]

I suspect that Neruz is scum, but I'm going to take a more in-depth look at this game today, since we only have one more mislynch before mylo/lylo.

[implosion]

Banshee.

I want you to look me in the eye and say that hiphop-scum-with-voided-and-thomith posted post 117.

[implosion]

and neruz: i'm clear, eb is pseudoclear based on the setup.

[implosion]

@Banshee

:

please provide me with a concise, but detailed post to convince me that thomith is scum. Not necessarily a case; please try to be as convincing as you can. Give me the best evidence there is.

@Neruz, Ellibereth and Thomith

:

please provide me with a case on whoever your current top suspect is.

[implosion]

Ummm...
If Scum killed me last night it would be 1 clear 4 unclear.

Banshee would be cleared by virtue of having been blocked with (presumably) one scum left.
I would be clear by virtue of the fact that i am clear.
2 clears.

[implosion]

I'd like to make two things clear.
First of all,

even if Evil Bullet makes it to the final 3 (assuming we screw up today), you are not to lynch him.

Second of all,

the scum have no motivation to kill Evil Bullet over me tonight.

Here's why.

For the first statement, look at the setup. I'm going to assume that EB is an even night jailkeeper (either town or scum) because he claimed it before the odd-night vig (which has symmetry) flipped.
So either the setup is: watcher + encryptor + X vs even jailkeeper + odd vig + bodyguard + innocent child
Or the setup is watcher + encryptor + even jailkeeper vs odd vig + bodyguard + innocent child.

Now, let's look at what utility each of these roles has in each of these setups.
In the first setup, the watcher has utility in that it can find the odd night vig or the even night jailkeeper, or the bodyguard, every night. That is, if every power role is alive, it has two potential targets it can see. In the second setup, it has one and a half. The only power role it can see on even nights is a bodyguard, which isn't all that useful to see, frankly.
The odd vig and the bodyguard have essentially the same function in both setups. Same with the innocent child. But the important part (more than the watcher) is the utility of the jailkeeper itself. In the first situation, with EB as town, it has the following purposes: protecting the innocent child, protection in general, blocking the mafia kill, blocking the mafia watcher, plus it's synergistic with the odd-night vig. In the second situation with EB as scum, what purpose does an even-night jailkeeper serve? Blocking town power roles? The only role it can even block is the bodyguard, and in a lot of cases the bodyguard activating is a

good

thing! protecting their scumbuddies? sorry, but the vig hits them on nights when the jailkeeper can't even activate!

EB's role has absolutely no utility for the mafia, and it has clear synergy with the already-proven town power roles.

For the second statement (the scum have no motivation to kill EB over me tonight, at least based on roles alone) look at the following.

Currently alive, we have me, EB, and four unclears.
suppose we mislynch today. me, EB, and three unclears.
Now, let's look at what happens if the scum kill me vs if they kill EB:

Kill EB. me and 3 unclears in mylo. we probably lynch that day since i'll obviously die if we don't.
Kill me. EB and 3 unclears in mylo. They probably nolynch to see if someone will die. Either EB declares his target beforehand, or he doesn't.

But either way, the scum can no-kill and lose nothing because eaasdfdddsiiijojjjospaoisjdf

i just realized that i'm wrong

carry on >.>

still, EB is town even if they leave him alive until then. If they do, then it's almost definitely wifom. If i die tonight, you should lynch in 4p tomorrow, and NOT evil bullet.

So yeah. Thomith doesn't make sense as scum with either of the flipped scum (or on his own, in my opinion) so he's off the table.

Frankly, I'm also between Ellibereth and neruz right now. Banshee's outlook on the game right now (willingness to die, along with the sudden change off of thomith) make me think that she's town.

[implosion]

Posts 32-33.

Distancing and weak bussing, or weakly pushing a mislynch?

[implosion]

Also interesting, the entirety of page 3 up to and including post 66.

both flipped scum

do the same thing. They attack Thomith for defending Neruz. And in fact, voidedmafia unvotes neruz to vote thomith. hiphop was already voting thomith.

So they're pushing a lynch on someone either for defending someone they know is scum, or for defending someone they know is town. But more importantly than that,

probably

, is the fact that they were both focusing the brunt of their offense towards thomith, and less towards neruz.

[implosion]

And then we have posts like 819...

would voided bus both buddies in this situation?

also i'll stop multiposting now x.x

[implosion]

I have one other question for neruz...

did you honestly believe that there were three cults in this game during day one?

[implosion]

premise one: the scum had daytalk on day one.
premise two: neruz thought there were three cults on day one.
inference one: neruz would probably have mentioned the possibility of cults to his scumbuddies. if he did this, his scumbuddies would have mentioned that it was impossible.
inference two: if neruz were scum, he would know that there were no cults on day one.
conclusion: if neruz is telling the truth about thinking that there were cults on day one, then he's town.

Someone look this over. and then look to see if neruz is telling the truth. I'm kind of swaying towards an elli lynch. someone give me an elli-town case.

[implosion]

~~~I'll have time starting today.
activity wise at least one person can support me drop was site-wide ~

this is true.

it's surprising how little scum teams utilize daytalk sometimes, especially people not use to it.
There have been SEVERAL cases where people just post first then check, or don't bother to check at all for a while.

this is also true.

Frankly, here's where i'm at.

thomith is town based on play and connections;
banshee and neruz are both reading as town based on play;
ellibereth isn't really reading town to me right now, but rainbowdash had a fairly strong town read on him...

I mean yeah, there are instances where scum could have been bussing neruz, but something about neruz's play in a vacuum reads as town. But i'm not entirely sure what that is, so i need to look more closely at him.

---

other note: what do people (including neruz) make of neruz's two RVS votes both being on scum?

[implosion]

@EB:

give me a banshee-scum case.

[implosion]

I just realized that i can use the two-person ISO feature to iso hiphop and voidedmafia. i am a happy implosion.

Ellibereth - null, largely because I'm just so damn unsure of how to read you.

Cloudocean: Any thoughts on recent events?

These two interactions with elli's slot just feel like distancing in my gut. The second one feels like something that scum would say to a lurking scumbuddy kind of as a prod to make them post more, and kind of as a small form of distancing. Compare it with the slightly more acerbic "Parama: ...are you even going to post?" and something about it really feels scummy. And then the only time hiphop mentioned cloud was to say that he needed a prod... idk, something about that feels a bit odd. they both essentially poked cloud with a soup ladle, and then voided really kind of ignored ellibereth for the most part... and then blamed that on being "unable to read him."

Then there's hiphop. He didn't mention elli at all on day two as far as i can tell...

doing the iso, looking at interactions, something about interactions with elli feel more feigned than interactions with other. Voided is right in a way that elli is difficult to read in a vacuum, which is part of why i'm looking at flipped scum so much. Banshee/deselby interactions... feel slightly less feigned in places. and there's this:

Switch Deselby with Implosion, or at least iso both, then tell me that Implosion is more town then Deselby.

when rainbowdash was trying to create the elements of harmony. I don't know, i don't think scum would just blatantly say "hey, please put one of my scumbuddies in your voting block, thanks." It would just feel weird.

As for the null read from voided, sure, it could go either way. But the more important point of that is that neruz and hiphop were voidedmafia's only two scumreads in that post. I just don't think voided would do that for some reason. Sure, that doesn't say anything about thomith or banshee, but we all know why thomith is town and as for banshee in a vacuum...

there are a few reasons that i think banshee is town. First of all, her demonstrated willingness to be lynched today. Second of all, what i feel is genuine scumhunting more so than ellibereth. Third, I thought her reaction to my pressure on her was genuine. And also, I've kind of changed my mind about the whole deselby l-1 l-2 weird thing... i think it could just be badtown doing weird stuff.

So:

VOTE: Ellibereth

I think that an ellibereth lynch will end the game. I have strong reason to think thomith is town. I have solid reasons to think neruz is town (voided's post; the fakehammer to an extent; his general style of posting, like the self-attention attracting that i mentioned that he did in the RVS forever ago). I also have

some

reasons to think he's scum, but the townpoints outweigh the scumpoints, i think. I have reasons to think banshee is town (listed above). I cannot read ANYTHING about ellibereth in a vacuum, and interactions make me think he's scum.

So yeah. If elli isn't lynched today, elli is going to be lynched tomorrow (which is kind of what I said about wv, but this time i feel like this... like, IS the scum lynch).

So.

Rainbow mentioned elli's interactions with the voided wagon in saying he was town early on; i think elli would be the kind of person who would bus. I honestly think rainbowdash locked in on an elli-town read, and then may have unconsciously tried to support that read (see: elli is town because elli was passive when elli was just being low-activity everywhere).

So that's where i'm at. I want to see EB's take right now, too.

[implosion]

And this is the part where i probably start getting confirmation bias >.>

stop me if that happens, please.

[implosion]

@EB:

give me a banshee-scum case.

Ugh. Maybe. I need time.

We've got plenty.

[implosion]

Certain things Banshee has said fall into a category of statements where either Banshee is "blatantly lying" or Banshee is town. Two examples: Banshee's supposed willingness to be lynched today and Banshee's saying that she will "haunt us" if we don't lynch Thomith if she dies. The question with regards to such statements is, does Banshee say them as scum?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... er_sort=Go

Banshee scum meta. I don't see anything like the above statements, but i might have skimmed too much, and it

could

be because banshee (as far as i can tell) was never under really strong pressure. But something about her play in that game feels a bit different from her play here, too.

[implosion]

That was banshee's only completed, non-archived game, except for a game where she died before posting (i think).

[implosion]

EB being scum wouldn't really make sense from a setup perspective either.

Good job, you've just figured out what I've probably said about 5-10 different ways since day two .

With regards to who the scum is: still ellibereth. I don't see banshee as scum right now, and neruz is

probably

my second suspect.

[implosion]

Before we go on, I'd like to make one thing crystal clear.

Regardless of whether I live or die, if we mislynch today, we are lynching tomorrow.

[implosion]

Paranoia can come from town or scum when they're both put in a situation where, in essence, there is no certainty.

The

only

things that players in the game state can be completely, un-paranoidly sure about are:
-Flips (and then only because this is a normal game)
-people alive (ditto above)
-my alignment (and only because of mod-confirmation).
And possibly a few other inconsequential things, like who's voting who.

I could be paranoid that EB is scum (i'm not, but I'm sure other players would be in this situation). I could be paranoid that thomith is scum (which i am to a very, very minor extent which i am suppressing). Scum could be paranoid about being jailkept (hence a no-kill) for example. Or they could (in theory) be paranoid that a town member is lying about their role (which would be stupid but i digress). And more importantly, scum can obviously fake town paranoia.

[implosion]

Banshee: explain how precisely you came to this:

Vote: Neruz

from this:

So I'm announcing my intent of sheeping Implosion because he seems to have a better, more objective handle on the game than I do. I'll help with whatever cases and stuff but I don't want to trust my own judgment here because if I'm wrong we could lose.

[implosion]

also, EB fossing banshee is honestly

pretty much

only thing right now that's keeping me from just declaring thomith/banshee town and lynching neruz/elli.

[implosion]

I'm

nearly

sure that scum is either neruz or elli... I am not sure that scum is elli.

banshee. do you realize why i'm asking you to lynch tomorrow even if i die? there's a very specific reason.

[implosion]

today is day five. tonight is night five. tomorrow is day six. if we lynch tomorrow and today and there's a nightkill tonight. we'd be going into night 6 with 3 people alive. If EB is alive, one of those people will be a person who can stop the nightkill.

[implosion]

alternatively, i'm alive and we lynch because (obviously) if we don't then i die.

[implosion]

wait so we can lynch in mylo and hope EB jails the mafia?

plus one gold star!

[implosion]

@Mod: Evil Bullet and/or his/its heads need prodding

[implosion]

but banshee is town

[implosion]

That was the hammer.

[implosion]

me and neruz.

[implosion]

Yeah, sorry for not waiting for implosion before hammering but I really don't know what to make of Neruz's post to me and I just would rather have the day over and possibly the game over.

It's okay.

I THINK this is game over, i REALLY hope it's game over. greyice needs to hurry up

[implosion]

it IS NOT EB

do not imply that it can be EB

it is not EB. if it is EB then i am a sad panda. but it isn't.

yes, i know you used the phrase sad panda in your post too but i DO NOT CARE!

[implosion]

daw, thanks.

And yay.

wv was lynched in my mind because if they weren't lynched then, they were going to wind up being lynched later. If they were town, I felt like they were going to wind up being lynched at some point, and if they were scum, i figured we might as well lynch them then. I didn't actually have a particularly strong read on them.

yay

As normal happy with day one play, not so with from there on out.

More later

It's kind of the opposite for me, actually. I never really got any scum on day one, except for hiphop - but then i kind of fizzled away from that as the day went on, and with a new bandwagon forming every few days we just managed to hit scum... partially by luck. And then I kind of decided that hiphop dying wouldn't be bad on day two, and then we were kind of pantsonhead until i decided to go with elli.

As for the setup, the even night jailkeeper + odd night vig synergy is beautiful. Didn't get to be used much, but it's beautiful, and the setup as a whole makes sense (it should be clear that i think that based on what i've been saying about the setup).

[implosion]

This may have been (probably was) my best town game to date.

There was a kind of strange dynamic that inexplicably worked, especially on day one. The ridiculous number of big wagons without any of them reaching lynch was really strange, but provided a lot of info.

[implosion]

http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Records

d1 went from post 3 to post 1210: 1207 posts, the fourth largest day in a mini game.
game went from post 3 to post 2222: 2219 posts, the fourth largest mini game to date.