Mini 1198 - Marketplace Mafia - Game Over

[GreyICE]

Hi folks! I can't say I didn't expect this, since I replaced in because the signup thread said it would be a challenge. Didn't even check the player list, so I'm pleasantly surprised to see some of you (HI LLD)

Apparently I now need to read the rules with an actuarial table.

Um... so far I haven't read anything besides page 19, but Ghostlin and LLD are town. Totally.

(that's actually serious)

[GreyICE]

Can someone give me a five minute rundown of the case? I'll do the best I can to answer any role related stuff, but on the 'whose scum, whose town' shit, it's going to take a reread.

[GreyICE]

Fair beans.

We pay money and bid on abilities, I assume? Is this any more meaningful than PYP numbers, or is it another silly system that's safer to ignore?

[GreyICE]

MS bid as follows:
$30 - Governor
$55 - Cop
$97 - Cop

Never won.

I currently have $97, and a "paycheck" balance of $65 I can take a "payday loan" from.

BTW, whoever has the governor should immediately use it and burn it if they haven't already. See MPM and ASOS for details.

Reread is up to page 5, but chuck Ghostlin in the firm neutral. He was the first person to do the "I have no interest in the NK, look at me obvtown" bit. Top of page 3. I think I need to understand the mechanics better to understand what's going on more, but I recognize a scummy 'look I so town' post when I see it.

Anything else?

[GreyICE]

You scum, Grey-kun? ;-;

Not this time

I'd ask about you, but I really don't have to.

Vote: Ghostlin

He's just terrible at this point in my reread. Every post is like 'look at me helping the town by... having vaguely town sounding concerns.'

The neck ruff is usually a town tell, but this shit is just POOR.

[GreyICE]

GI, do you have any knowledge of MS bidding on Ninja and succeeding or failing? I currently hold Governor and I have no intention of chucking a Benmage with it however if everyone believes it's best to burn it now I'll do so.

We're not lynching Ghostlin today, it's a big no-no, he has one more cop inspection. We let him use that tonight and then proceed to work forward from there depending on the answer to the question Seacore asks.

I'll PM the mod to check, but this thing was in a bloody table format with dollar deductions and tallies, I'd be surprised if Magua made an error.

*twitch* at the idea of letting scum live.

Ghostlin, you town? No? Good. Die.

[GreyICE]

What inconsistency?

Either Midnight posted his bid

much

too late for it to matter, he's mistaken about the amount he bid, or he's lying about bidding (or what he bid for) Cop.

I don't see how me winning a bid when I bid $99+$1 on an auction means much of anything to alter the any of the three above since the mod just said the closing bid was correct.

Mod: Was there an error? If you could fix my balance to show the correct amount, then maybe we can get this cleared up?

The ending bid of $95 for 1. Cop x 2 from D1 is correct.

Look at this. These are the simple facts people:

1) MS claimed to bid $97. I know for a fact this is true.
2) Ghostlin claimed to win the cop x2 with $99+1.

3) Moderator said $95 is correct.

Got that?

I'm down with waiting for tomorrow, but only if we agree that tomorrow goes one of two ways:

1) I get lynched
2) Ghostlin gets lynched.

THAT IS IT. THERE ARE MOD CONFIRMED LIES IN THE ABOVE.

Now here's why you should be lynching Ghostlin and not me.

MS claimed the $97 I KNOW he bid. Why would scum-MS counterclaim Ghostlin? Why would town Ghostlin lie about how much he spent? Why the fuck would scum use an ability to dick with the bid on the cop powers and then

GIVE THEM TO TOWN ANYWAY?

- Where are the town motives to fakeclaim your bid amount?
- Where are the scum motives to alter the bidding process and then lose the bid?
- What are the scum motives to counterclaim town with an obviously fake bidding amount that's too high?

None. MS bid $97. Scum used some sort of power to either cancel the bid and display $95, or win the bid for $95. I don't know which, frankly I don't care. Ghostlin waited for anyone to claim a higher bid, and when he didn't see anyone doing that, he posted his claim. He panicked when he saw the post from MS, and then fakeclaimed a higher amount, then when he was corrected, posted some bullshit about "OOOH FUCKING MYSTERIES LA LA LA WELL ITS SO STRANGE WELL ETC."

Now here's where we are.

1) I fucking know MS bid $97. Magua PMed it to me.

$95 is less than $97

2) Ghostlin won an ability I should have AND LIED ABOUT IT.

BLATANTLY.

He is confirmed fucking scum to me. You could lynch me today, and when I flip town lynch Ghost tomorrow, but lets reverse that.

- Why the HELL would scum COUNTERCLAIM TOWN when town had an innocent result on some other player?

On day 2, after a scum lynch day 1?

WITH NO NIGHTKILLS. What's the scum motive for that? "OH HERE'S A THREE MAN TEAM, WE JUST LOST ONE AND THERE'S STILL TEN TOWNIES, LETS LOCK OURSELVES INTO A 1V1 WITH A TOWNIE, THAT'S A GOOD IDEA! NOPE NO PROBLEMS THERE, FORGE AHEAD BRAVE SOULS"

- WHY THE HELL WOULD TOWN GHOSTLIN FAKECLAIM!

No fucking way. No fucking way at all.

He was caught scum. He panicked. And you fucking retards let him get off the fucking hook because MS is an incompetent lurker who isn't worth a pound of jelly beans.

No thumbs up our asses. No waiting. We lynch him, and if he flips town, well, guess you have a guilty result on me. No thumb twidling, 'lets lynch someone else' bullshit.


Prefered lynches in order:

1) Ghostlin. Because he's fucking obvious scum.
2) Me. Because then I'll be confirmed town and have CONFIRMED A FUCKING SCUMBAG.
3) NO LYNCH BECAUSE I HAVE MOD CONFIRMED SCUM STARING ME IN THE FACE.

[GreyICE]

AND YES I CHANGED MY MIND WHILE TYPING THAT

NO WAITING

NO BABBLING ABOUT NIGHT PLAY

NO SHIT ABOUT COPS AND WIFOM ABOUT WHETHER THE SCUMBAG FAKED AN INNOCENT ON HIS PARTNER.

MOD CONFIRMED SCUM IS STARING ME IN THE FACE

DO IT, FOLKS. IF YOUR HEAD IS SO FAR UP YOUR ASS YOU THINK A FUCKING SCUMBAG WOULD LOCK HIMSELF INTO A FUCKING 1V1 WITH A TOWNIE WHEN THE ONLY DEATH IS ONE SCUM, THEN FUCKING LYNCH ME AND LYNCH HIM TOMORROW. IF YOU HAVE MORE THAN FOUR BRAIN CELLS, LYNCH HIM.

[GreyICE]

"WAAA MAGIC SHIT HAPPENED ETC."

No, Ethos. No way. I don't have a clue what happened, but I bid $97, the mod said it was won for $95, Ghostlin hastily claimed that he won it for more than that right after MS said $97.

Look at that post. Just look at it.

I placed only one bid that day and that was to clean out everything for Cop: $99+ $1 fee. I don't know honestly

why

the bid only ended up at $95 if you bid $97 before deadline. I can't explain that.

And look how long he waited.

Breaking News

Midnight's Sorrow, Ghostlin have been prodded

Everyone had posted except MS and Ghostlin. Ghost went "oh looks like no one claimed, I'm in the clear" and claimed. I mean look at his babble day 1 about NKs, scum powers, town powers, etc.

They used some ability on the Cop power. Maybe they auto won it, maybe it shows up as won and was destroyed, don't know, don't care.

HE'S OBVIOUSLY SCUM.

There are no super-secret powers. He fakeclaimed, panicked when that fucking lurker MS counterclaimed him, then fell back on 'hee-haw, powers.' That makes 100% sense. The idea that the scum used a super-sekret ability to change the amount to $95 (why?) and that we're just two townies who happened to bid more than $95 on THAT ONE power is ridiculous.

Face it. NO ONE ELSE has claimed that their winning bid was for a different amount than flipped. NO ONE. This has happened ONCE, and

by chance

Ghostlin happened to wait long enough to get into prod range just to claim it? And then the one OTHER townie who did happen to bid more just happened to be the OTHER PERSON IN PROD RANGE?

Does this make sense?

Or does this:

MS bid $97. No one topped $95. Ghostlin lurked into prod range then posted a prod dodge. Then he decided 'ah, fuck it, no one's gonna claim bidding more' and tossed his claim out there a few minutes later. MS counterclaimed and he panicked in the most scummy reaction EVER.

EVER.

EVER!

Want another scum read? Anyone who thinks the first scenario when we both happen to be town, both happened to bid more than $95, and scum just coincidentally used a power that has NEVER BEEN USED ELSEWHERE (correctly if I'm wrong) to set this situation up, and that miraculously the people it set up were the two people who'd lurked into prod range?

YEAH BULLSHIT.

GHOSTLIN DIES NOW

AND IF I'M DERAILING THE LYNCH ON MY BUDDY LOL. TOWN GHOSTLIN? FRY ME. THEN FRY WHOEVER YOU WANTED TO LYNCH TODAY. FUCK GUYS NO TOWN HAVE DIED WHY WOULD SCUM BE THROWING THEIR LIVES AWAY HOW DOES THIS EVEN MAKE SENSE?

[GreyICE]

And Ethos, why the fuck are you asking me what powers the scum have?

I bid $97. Period. If it was won for $95, I should have gotten it.

I don't know what happened, I don't care how the bid system works, 97>95, that should be my cop power. If someone like 'auction blocked' me I think they'd have claimed it by now, neh?

Ghostlin's reaction was hella fucking scummy, ghostlin's claim was hella fucking scummy, lets lynch scum.

[GreyICE]

That's NOISE LLD. I know you better than that, since when are you tied up in magical wonderland abilities?

I placed only one bid that day and that was to clean out everything for Cop: $99+ $1 fee. I don't know honestly

why

the bid only ended up at $95 if you bid $97 before deadline. I can't explain that.

That's not NOISE. That's a scum reaction. Like "oh someone counterclaimed me, well

MYSTERIOUS BULLSHIT GUESS WE'LL NEVER KNOW, LOL ETC

"

Either Midnight posted his bid much too late for it to matter, he's mistaken about the amount he bid, or he's lying about bidding (or what he bid for) Cop.

I don't see how me winning a bid when I bid $99+$1 on an auction means much of anything to alter the any of the three above since the mod just said the closing bid was correct.

So either Midnight Sorrow posted his action late or he's

CONFIRMED FUCKING SCUM TO TOWN GHOSTLIN.

Got that? He's confirmed goddamn scum, and he's making noise about other people?

Fuck that. He knows after I flip town if he's sitting there in the obvious 1v1 WHICH IS WHAT THIS IS he's going into the deep fat fryer.

Maybe, MAYBE if he were playing really townie and pushing MS, and trying to solve a fucking 1v1, MAYBE I'd agree that this is some scum bullshittery. But he's running away from this as fast as his little legs will carry him, has been since MS made the damn claim.

[GreyICE]

And Ethos, why the fuck are you asking me what powers the scum have?

I bid $97. Period. If it was won for $95, I should have gotten it.

This has the potential to be incredibly funny when the game is over, so...
Are you absolutely sure you/MS bid $97 BEFORE the deadline?

That's what it says. I know I can bid more than I have, don't know if MS did that. Wouldn't matter unless he won. Which he didn't.

Why the fuck would you take me suddenly going 'oh no, guess he didn't submit, lol?' as an answer at this stage? Out with the info. Claim whatever you want, I really don't care. Ghostlin played EXACTLY like a scumbag faced with this, and if it takes my townflip to sell it to y'all, that's what it'll take. GHOSTLIN DIES.

[GreyICE]

I said that he

should

be the lynch for today. As you may have noticed, I said the same about HN.

Basically we just kill the person that 7 people think is scummy enough to have their vote. Sometimes it's just a timing issue. We have to analize all possible explanations for Ghostlin's bids, and all the possible outcomes and results of his (mis)lynch. Before that, I won't vote him, unless deadline gets really an issue.

I think it would be too much to scum to have that kind of manipulative abilities. More inicial money, more money each day, daytalk, ability to steal bids, and almost guaranteed NK on the first two days (due to the amount of money they have being much more that any townie; after D3, there might be some town players that can compete with scum for the NK)?

All-mighty scum doesn't fit here. 3 scum togheter would destroy town. Two scum teams would mean that the game is between them, and we are just background. It just doesn't fit the whole setup.

Nooooooooo, there's no issue of vote analysis and implications and well but etc. That's the most stalling waste of a post I've ever seen. And speculating about scum team size is just wasting oxygen. Even if it WERE two 2 man scumteams (and in a game with no kill N1 why would you even suggest this) does this somehow make it MORE LIKELY for scum to throw their lives away in a 1v1 with town?

Ghostlin is caught scum. He knew it when MS claimed, and he's been lurking and running away ever since, and you guys have apparently LET HIM.

[GreyICE]

Here, lemme give you all the implications. Here's all the scenarios:

1) We lynch someone random today. Tomorrow, we are in the SAME FUCKING SITUATION. I still know Ghostlin is scum. Ghostlin still is scum. We have one fake cop investigation, COOL BEANS.

2) We lynch me today. I'm confirmed town. Tomorrow you FUCKING SPEED LYNCH GHOSTLIN.

3) We lynch Ghostlin. He flips scum. Tea and pastries.

ONLY IN SCENARIO ONE CAN TOWN DIE TWO DAYS IN A ROW.

THAT'S IT.

EVERYWHERE ELSE SCUM DIES IN A LYNCH TODAY OR TOMORROW

IF YOU THINK I'M FAKECLAIMING, FLIP #2 AND #3, AND LYNCH ME.

IT'S MORE PRO TOWN FOR ME TO VOTE FOR

MYSELF

THAN ANY OTHER PLAYER THAT'S NOT GHOSTLIN.

[GreyICE]

Sure. I have no fucking clue. He never bid on Ninja, I have no idea why he'd bid on Ninja. I have no idea why he'd bid on governor.

Look, it's not just a matter of scummy. Abilities are never 'ultra complex.'

If bids were coming back ALL THE TIME with the high bidder not winning, or with wrong numbers, or other things, we'd have noticed right quick. Bid blocked? What scum in their right minds would bid block MS? Even odds on him not submitting an action any given night, he lurks and flakes like it's a job.


Bid blocked by town?

If any town blocked me from bidding with any powers at any point, please just say so

And even if we're both town, HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN HIS REACTION? I should have been confirmed liar to him. Do you look at confirmed liars in mafia and go 'well, no idea what happened, let me not poke into that too deeply?' Is that town? IS IT? Or is it scum running away from an OBVIOUS COUNTERCLAIM.

[GreyICE]

Bullshit. I know where Cop is. (WITH ME) I know it's been bid for. I know damn fucking well your replacements lying, and now you're back peddling to save your own ass. Lynch the scumbag, guys. Both of the replacements have been lurker scum that have been peddling hard to remove me. MS only asked to replace when caught in an obv lie, and bob had been lurking all day with no good input at all.

Really...did any of you read LLD's post...'I'll vote for Ghost tomorrow if we prove there's more than one scum team...' was the synopsis. Not a bloody likely bet unless she already knows the answer is going to be yes, and frankly that's her only justification to lynch the Cop anyway.

You know what I've been trying to do today, Grey? Trying to lynch the other obv liar in this town---but now that you've replaced in to liar MS's slot, you've accused me of doing the same and have the gall to say he told the truth all along. Guys--MS lied to you. HN lied to you. You lynch liars with fire. You don't make deals with them. You don't listen to what they have to say. You lynch them.

See, if you'd been doing this from the start, really pushing MS, I might still think there was some very small chance that you're town. Might.

"Oh no, something happened, no idea what!"

That was your first response. Here we are, down to the wire, and suddenly you're doing what town would do all along.

Well... kind of. Apparently we have THREE FUCKING SCUM LEFT. HN who he's been attacking for... uh... has he ever even mentioned him before? AND TWO PEOPLE WHO WANT HIS ASS DEAD.

Fuck this. You notice he never mentioned this was a 1v1 until I brought it up. What motive does he have to make this a 1v1? None. He knows he has to roll his eyes tomorrow and go "MS was such a derp, oh well, who knows."

Now he just wants to live one little extra day, and get one last mislynch in.

Look at Ghostlin, Folks.

Bluntly, the only two reasons (besides not reading the thread) one would bid on NK at that point would be:

1) They believed hiphop was scum and outbid him to ensure he didn't have it.
2) They were scum either counterbidding or reestablishing their bid.

Newman said he didn't believe Hiphop was scum--yet is forcing him to spend more money to acquire NK?

Vote: HelloNewman

However, Icey's opportunism, particularly since there are plenty of good reasons to vote HN, reeks of scum--I would support an IG lynch.

IceGuy is scum. LLD is scum. HelloNewman is scum. I'm scum.

OH AND WE HAVE ONE MOTHERFUCKING FLIPPED SCUM.

"Hi town, guess you guys were in deep shit, what with the five man team and all. I mean sure, you'd normally face that down with 17-20 townies or so, but you guys are smart enough to win with only 8, right? How clever of Ghostlin to figure every one of us out."

Fuck that.

Why would scum counterclaim town with one town dead?
Why would I lock myself into a 1v1 rather than try and extract myself?
Why would I push so hard for this lynch, knowing a town flip means my death?

Want this in writing?

Hiplop, if Ghostlin flips town, submit the Night Kill on me. Promise me?

I can't dodge that. I can't wriggle my way out of that tomorrow. If I am bulletproof scum and live through a goddamn bullet, as well as Ghostlin being town, no one on earth would vote for anyone but me.

I've had some strong scumreads in my day, but Ghostlin has been trying to get out of this being a 1v1 so hard that it's getting funny. His last case is LAL on MS, rather than noting this is a pure "He said, she said" where one of the people saying things is town.

Every step, EVERY STEP, Ghostlin has been leaving himself an exit path for when I flip town.
"Oh guess mysterious shit happened, we'll never know"
"Oh someone hammer MS before we have time to discuss the implications of him possibly flipping town, do it someone, it's pro town!"
"Oh now that I'm being attacked by LLD I'm going to generate a brand new scumread out of thin air and investigate her, over IceGuy or HelloNewman!"
"Oh, MS was a flaking lurker who lied, LAL" (and tomorrow, 'well, no idea why he was lying folks, lets move onto the other person attacking me or HN, tee hee hee')

Fuck this shit.

FUCK. THIS. SHIT.

Ghostlin dies.

[GreyICE]

Okay, I've read the rules more, and I see a 99+1 bid would only spend 95 if there was a 94. Which still doesn't beat my 97, so mafia needs to die.

Who won the doctor on day 1? It was the ONLY protective role, and the NK didn't go to town, so your target is confirmed town. Rather want to know this since we know the night kill holder for today and if the CONFIRMED TOWN dies overnight we can speed lynch scum tomorrow too.

Also I have a neat plan once we have our confirmed town.

[GreyICE]

Instead of the doctor declaring, there is the possibility that WLC bought NK and then was lynched and so it was unused.

Okay, see, Ghostlin is confirmed scum to me, so he turbo bussed his buddy with the NK that quickly? Nahhhh.

Whoever the doctor targeted is the next best thing to confirmed town.

Plus I have reasons for this.

[GreyICE]

I think we wait until tomorrow for the doctor to claim his/her targets. That way that doctor is all used up.

Actually, you're right. hiphop has the NK tonight, plus there's a watcher around.

I was the N1 Doctor. I targeted Red Coyote. I didn't think I'd win both that and the setup. I have little money now.

Okay, rock and roll.

I've just started phase 1 of this plan. That is, transfer all my money to RedCoyote. Phase 2 is as follows, the advertising. I want the possibility of an advertised night kill showing up out of the picture. Basically, we're WAY ahead of scum in income tomorrow, because Ghostlin is dead. So them collaborating to win the 2nd NK is at its absolute nadir.

The advertised night kill possibility gets more and more dangerous, and more and more possible as the game drags on, so I basically want it lightning rodded. If someone else gives RC at least some, with my cash that should give him enough dough to guarantee winning an advertised night kill tomorrow.

Basically, the advertising mechanic is really powerful, and I'd like to stop the pro-scum abilities showing up late game. Giving RC enough money to win it will make it basically a 1-shot vig, rather than a late game 'ninja look now we have a new ability.'

Along the same lines, we might want to advertise shitty abilities that suck for the town in LyLo (Love Potion, Vote Nullifier, and Extra vote all stood out) early and then have the winner 'ground' them. Worst case, we'll know the scum spent lots of money to win, and also that they have the ability. Having a ninja 'Extra vote' or 'Love potion' pop up at the wrong time is bad news.

But worst of the worst is the NK, and I think we advertise that and ground it on RC tomorrow.

Everyone agree?

[GreyICE]

Unclaimed Love Potion and Vote Nullifier are worthless in LyLo, since they confirm the protected player as scum pretty much immediately. I agree with you on Extra Vote, since that can fuck town completely.

tl;dr: Ghostlin lynch, Newman NK.

The major one I'm worried about is the spare night kill, no question. Down with advertising it and making sure RedCoyote gets it tomorrow?

[GreyICE]

Oh, okay.

Well lets abort one of the annoying abilities then. Give RC Roleblockerx3? That's a fairly friggin powerful thing in the hands of conf. town.

[GreyICE]

Looking through the abilities and items auctioned for tommorow I believe we need to make sure conf town gets Night kill, Roleblocker and ability to be the only one who knows what the current bid is for all the auctions.

The only problem is that if the auctions end simultaneously then it's likely if RC splits his cash that scum could just pool it and overbid him (since cash is tied up in bids).

Like, RC has $500, he does $300 on the NK, $200 on the RB, and scum put $225 on the RB, then it's going to scum.

Plus it minimizes the risk if they do get some sort of RB ability that we have a bunch of abilities shut down.

I'd rather see cash pool on strong town reads - Seacore, you, or LLD for me - and then have those people toss ALL their money on the agreed high-priority abilities to keep away from scum.

Like RC bids all on NK, Seacore bids all on RB, LLD bids all on Extra vote or something like that.

[GreyICE]

Hahahahaha Ghostlin just claimed scum.

Really, guys. The bid manipulation

theory

is lame.

Odds are GI's lying to us.

2) I won Cop with a $99 bid that I only used $95 of.

I'm REALLY confused why.

ISN'T IT BECAUSE I'M LYING TO THE TOWN GHOSTLIN? WOULDN'T THAT BE THE REASON THAT YOU WON IT FOR LESS THAN I BID? HOW WOULD THAT CONFUSE YOU?

Or do you know that even if you get me lynched, tomorrow you're going to need a different explanation than "GreyICE is scum?"

[GreyICE]

If ghost flips town, do you still want me to nk you?

Hells yes.

He just fucking admitted that he knows I'm town. Look at that. He said I was 'most likely' lying, and that he 'didn't know what happened.'

After that there's an 0.01% chance he's flipping town, if I'm wrong about that shoot me for being a derp.

[GreyICE]

The above is serious btw. If he's actually town, I'm just going to get lynched, or shoved aside by the scum so they can push a lynch on me closer to LyLo.

My last reads if Ghostlin flips town and I'm shot:

Hiphop is town
LLD is town
Seacore is town

Everyone else... meh, too much effort, I'll just put the people who are easy to read, 'cause ghost is soooooo not town


PEdit: It's not the fact the cop auction was fucked with. It's his flip-floppy wishy-washy behavior. He didn't want to push MS to the wall because he knew MS would flip town and that'd throw a spotlight on his behavior. He only started screaming for votes when the wagon was well underway and he thought it would go unnoticed. He then attacked me and everyone pushing him when the tide started to turn, and then made that last post where he blatantly waffled all over the place, when town would have NO reason to believe my bid claim if they legitimately won the auction as town.

Oh and then there's his day 1 play.

The cop auction was a great reason to suspect him. He won while underbidding me, then IMMEDIATELY started going 'strange stuff happened, dunno, lol' when MS claimed, rather than seeing it as any sort of scumslip.

Trust me, hiphop, town doesn't play that way.

[GreyICE]

PEdit: It's not the fact the cop auction was fucked with. It's his flip-floppy wishy-washy behavior.

Ok, then. I understood the part afterwards, it just that I thought the cop auction was the reason you were pushing him. If that is the case, why would one of you or ghost be scum? Cop auction, or part after?

60% auction, from the fact that he claimed one thing, I claimed another, and warring claims usually involve scum.

40% behavior. All of it.

Fuck, he was the first and only player to go 'look at me, I'm so townie I don't even want a night kill!' which is scummy as fuck. My opinion is town should be conspiring openly to GET the goddamn night kill, not declaring openly how townie they are because they're fine with not even trying to keep it away from scum.

About the only townie thing he did was bristle wildly at LLD, and even that's degenerated into scummy whining.

[GreyICE]

Anyway, who cares? Shoot me if I'm wrong, 100%. I'm not being a goddamn mislynch later in the game for the scum.

[GreyICE]

And furthermore I don't even have a dime onhand, so all my cash will end up in RedCoyote's coffers. You can't take a dime away from the town, whereas any other shot can.

[GreyICE]

Fuck it man, I'm not arguing that the lynched player is scum in the twilight. I'll tell you my bidding strategy tomorrow, when I've had more time to think about it. I've claimed all of MS' bids, and I'm not going to even try and guess what he was doing. It's less comprehensible than when TS claimed to have a big secret about his role... as VT.

If he flips town, I want you to shoot me so I'm not a goddamn mislynch later in the game (I HATE being a mislynch).

If he flips scum and you want to shoot me, go ahead. I replaced into a slot on L-2 on a lark, if I got scum lynched and then got night killed, well, that's fucking amazing in my book.

[GreyICE]

Ethos, your watcher power is going to be important tonight.

We have two threats. A potential scum DOCTOR and a potential scum RB.

Oh no, a scumbag could protect a townie from the night kill.

Plox don't tell me you actually think seacore is scum hun... I know you're paranoid, but I just don't think that's true.

[GreyICE]

I currently have $97, and a "paycheck" balance of $65 I can take a "payday loan" from.

In case you're not here tomorrow, it looks like you are a non-standard role. If you did not win, it also looks like you did not receive a wage. If that is the case, what is the source of your payday loan if you don't get a wage? Also, was that ability available day1?

I get a paycheck every two weeks. I can use money in that paycheck to bid, but if I win, every $8 I spend from the paycheck takes $10 out (and I can't reduce the paycheck below zero).

I don't know if the money was available day 1, I'll ask.

Pedit: thank god. Townie alliance of doom, coming right up!

[GreyICE]

By 'every two weeks' I mean every two game days, to be clear.

Just fairly obvious where the flavor came from.

[GreyICE]

Yeah. Either I get lynched tomorrow, or on day 6 or 7, the scum go 'remember the mystery when we lynched Ghostlin-town trololol?'

Reason I wanted to mail my damn money to someone I could be 95% on being town.

[GreyICE]

This is hysterical.

Are you seriously fucking telling me that no townies have died, and we're down three scum?

[GreyICE]

Unnecessary. FRC is a 5 day deadline, RC can bid on it for pete's sake, if scum jack it up, someone else can come in on top of them, and in any case RC will have his money untied before NK deadline.

I'm ignoring the last will shit.

[GreyICE]

No, we get a scum read to bid on it. Makes more sense. If anything, they will be out some money.

Works for me. I nominate ChaosOmega.

[GreyICE]

None of those abilities are horribly anti-town, at the moment.

If 'mystery bidder' wins the vote freeze, we can just not vote at/near LyLo until we're CERTAIN (which we should be doing anyway wtf). Vote freezing isn't gonna change anything when there's THIS MANY town. Hitman's obnoxious, 'tis true, but I think we can control the NK for the foreseeable future, especially with money pooling and FRC.

Blind bid is irritating, but I think fails to be more than that.

Bulletproof is like... lol, mystery person wins bulletproof, townie shoots them, we're like 'who do we lynch I wonder...'

LLD getting gravedigger is fine with me, but I'll wait for Ethos, Seacore, and Voided to comment. With an advertised Gravedigger, we can work out WLC and IceGuy's powers, meaning we have a full list of scum powers.

Do we vote on which corpse she digs? Personally I don't much care, but there's an argument she should dig WLC just in case she's IceGuy's partner and knows he died with nifty on him. Not super likely, but I can be paranoid

[GreyICE]

Oh and:

Vote: ChaosOmega

I don't think he gave a FUCK who we lynched yesterday.

Pedit: Blind Bid? I dunno. I know it would ANNOY me, but with only one scum, a mass claim of who got what and for what price might actually even be pro-

town.

Scum would have a hard time using it to cloak bidding on pro-scum powers, as they'd have to claim their bids and if someone claims to have not bid at all when several anti-town options were won by scum, well, we'd have a definite suspect.

It'd be different with 3-4 scum left, of course, but in this situation I just can't see having one scum having access to the cash reserves to bid on town powers AND bid on scum powers.

[GreyICE]

LLD has gravedigger since it apparently interacts with one of her powers, unless she wants me to have it. Someone mind advertising Gravedigger for like $1? I can't advertise.

If Chaos wins bid on FRC before day ends, can he use it in the night phase if he's killed?

Eh, fuck it. Submitted minimum bid on FRC. The idea of waiting for those lurking lunks and then having them argue with me fills me with sorrow, and it's like $10.

Have them transfer their money to a strong town read before they die.

@LLD: I don't give a fuck if bulletproof is in scum hands. What's going to happen? Mystery bidder wins the vest, and then someone gets shot and doesn't die, and no one claims RB/Doctor/whatever?

Scum actually have an RB... meh. It's not a bad idea. I can see them winning the vest then RBing the NKer, and saying 'oh look, hit the vest, whadda ya know?'

[GreyICE]

HHey Grey, was the name of your role still entrpenuer?

Nope

[GreyICE]

Haha.

That's beautiful.

[GreyICE]

I'm kinda curious why 8:2:2:1? I mean beyond "this is going too well, gonna be a kick in the balls somewhere "

My thoughts are I'm going to play like it's not possible, and then if we get a scumflip and the game is ongoing VERY hastily revise my plan. Honestly don't think it's that likely.

[GreyICE]

Also, slaxx, is this not fun on the other side? XD

[GreyICE]

Okay, thoughts:

The thread should remain open long enough for me to win FRC, and get us all $200. If you invest your $200, you get an extra $100 in day 4 tomorrow, which is a shit ton more than the $15 we lose for waiting 3 days (as I understand invest, haven't looked at it too much).

I'd rather have voided go for the NK because he has to have the cash reserves to beat the scum, but we should probably hold off bidding on it until the FRC passes, since scum could overbid with the FRC money. So 3 days to decide.

Unvote

I'm going to look in askance to anyone who isn't posting for days after the FRC resolves, driving down the efficiency bonus.

[GreyICE]

Guess I should have been in that game and town to help them do it right?

No, the town should have shot the numbers INTO THE MOTHERFUCKING SUN AND LYNCHED SCUMMY PEOPLE.

Numbers catch STUPID scum, and give SMART scum a free pass.

We can kill all the fucking stupid people anyway seacore, what the fuck is going on? You're going to turn this game into a cesspit where all we do is debate 1s and 2s and DON'T FUCKING SCUMHUNT AND THAT PISSES ME OFF.

Take your bullshit numbers crap and light it on fire.

[GreyICE]

Seriously, I had two of the scumteam pegged on day 1, but they were definitely confirmed town because of numbers nevermind the fact that they were so obviously scum that it PHYSICALLY HURT ME.

[GreyICE]

Okay, so I'm still waiting on Grey, Newman and Chaos for their transaction claims.

Hiphop, Pere and Mal all check out fine.

LLD, I'll wait until you get a response from Magua, but I have a couple of questions for when that happens.

You have my bloody transaction claims too, Seacore.

Yesterday. Since then, I gave $97 to Voided (which Magua tells me is $92 when it hit him) and bid $10 on FRC.

[GreyICE]

Voided isn't bloody scum WHAT THE FUCK YOU MORONS.

[GreyICE]

I don't really, you talk about paychecks but that's about it, unless I'm missing it.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 7#p3238197

Duuuuuuuude it's my fourth post in the thread.

[GreyICE]

Do you get the same efficiency and start of day bonuses that we get?

No. My role is significantly different.

Is this getting somewhere? 'cause all I see is someone voting for Voided who you fucking doctor protected N1 because of a number complaint which is EXACTLY WHAT LOST US PYP.

Pedit: 'cause he got doctored, and a night kill didn't happen. Because neither player has done one scummy thing in thread.

You are voting for him because 147 isn't 148. Are. You. Serious.

[GreyICE]

You get that I'm not voting Voided, right? I don't have my vote anywhere right now.

Yeah I get you're being fucking useless I'm asking you to stop plox

[GreyICE]

GI, I hate your attitude. I play this game for fun and I'll play it however I please. I have won games doing stuff like this in the past. Analysing games and PR results. I scum hunt far better this way than by reading motivations. I also enjoy it. So you're not going to stop me from doing it.

I dislike the way you call people morons, I dislike the way you use Caps for no good reason. And I'm asking to stop.

I won't, so blow me.

[GreyICE]

*sigh*

Fine. But I'm not playing along with numbers.

I see we have three scum dead, and the closest we got to running numbers is Ghostlin having the cop I should have had (and that he apparently didn't have so well). And I wanted him dead on his waffle reactions to me being lynched it was sooooo obvious he knew I was town from how he was treating me. Ice and WLC died on play. And I see people voting for Voided, and I'm like... and here we go agaaain, lets lynch some town because lynching scum isn't fun.

[GreyICE]

Have I ever mentioned how much I love the fact you get my jokes?

Seriously I was soooo happy when I saw you were in this

[GreyICE]

So you've done less to catch scum than me when I've started off with the small disadvantage of replacing in, oh, like 24 hours before day 2 ended; you've voted twice (once for the reason that 'eh, we'll lynch him eventually anyway,' one for numbers BS), you OBVIOUSLY aren't even reading my bloody posts, you aren't even reading Chaos's posts, hell there's no evidence you're reading anyone's posts; you're trying to turn this thread into some dance for your amusement and which you ADMIT HASN'T EVEN GIVEN YOU A REASON TO LAY A VOTE DOWN A BILLION DAYS FROM LYLO, and you get pissed that someone calls this a pile of BS and doesn't want it around?

And you're going to replace out of games I'm in or not join?

Make my bloody day.

[GreyICE]

Sweet info right there.

Unvote

Vote: Pere

ChaosOmega is still more likely to be scum imho, but we can't shoot a commuter who doesn't want to be shot.

[GreyICE]

Unvote

It's worth winning the auctions now, because FRC still gives us benefits if used today, and we can drain all the cash scum get from it by forcing them to rebid on the NK.

[GreyICE]

Also, depending on time stamps, if Voided submits before scum, it might give us a snapshot of how much scum have left.

[GreyICE]

Regfan - opinions on speed lynch versus waiting?

[GreyICE]

Vote: PeregrineV

Non-voided hammers = scumclaim sounds good to me.

[GreyICE]

From the bid jump hopefully voided just won it.

We also have a snapshot of scum's cash, $211 right now.

[GreyICE]

Did the stealing effect the bidding other days? I don't remember it doing that.

Anyway, hammer's all yours

[GreyICE]

Conspicuous Consumer

[GreyICE]

Interesting conclusion LLD. Why voided?

Also sexy claim

[GreyICE]

Could have easily been me or Ethos by the same logic, and Hiphop's on invisible.

Give me something better than that.

[GreyICE]

I am an entrepreneur.

Also, I used medium on Chaos so I have a QT with him for today.

Damn I kind of wish it was PeregrineV so we could see if he stole some of the crap yesterday as a middle finger.

[GreyICE]

Could have been anyone on at about that time. Fuck, could have been a last middle finger from PeregrineV.

What's your read on Voided and RedCoyote? What about their play (not numbers) makes you think that Voided is scum?

[GreyICE]

Who won the bulletproof btw? They should get peace treaty.

[GreyICE]

Seacore is now moderator confirmed town. Not that I had much doubt, but that's like... godly.

LLD is shadier.

Newman still needs to be eaten by weevils so well

[GreyICE]

My top scumreads are LLD, ICE and Newman.

Well, after yesterdays mess, I think I know what to do.

Vote:HelloooNewman

Why are those your scumreads? What have you done to confirm these reads? What are you doing right now?

[GreyICE]

o_O

That's literally all you want to say?

[GreyICE]

o_O

That's literally all you want to say?

Are you the one trying to killll meeee LLD?

You wouldn't be doing that, would yoooouuuuuuuu

[GreyICE]

Yeah

Actually the fact that you haven't done a damn thing

Would be the problem

[GreyICE]

okay ice declares absolute bollocks time!

every townie should bid on peace treaty now. bidd whatever it'll be fun don't say what ur bidding or why or when

or don't bid but for the love of thor don't post what ur doing in thread.

bid fuckers bid

i also declare that forensic accountant won't be won by newman on account of him not actuall duing anything and being scummy as fuck

[GreyICE]

This is a FACT
Everything posted in red is TRUE
The red truth is used by WITCHES and it is SUBJECTIVE
Everything posted in blue is REASONING
Blue reasoning is how humans fight WITCHES
But blue reasoning can work on HUMANS
The Purple declaration is TRUE
Unless the poster is A MURDERER
The golden truth is used by the GAME MASTER
It can only be used if you understand the RULES

[GreyICE]

vpte lld

drunk voting and i dun care
drunk ice is GOD
hear that fuckers?
GOD

I'm like if Zeus met Odin
and they had a love child
and then the love child traveled back in time and fathered
both of those sluts

but then he killed them both because
he was too awesome to put up with their fucking backstabbing
eat BOTH your eyes with a raven bitches
and follow me

WIN WIN WIN
WIN WIN WIN

[GreyICE]

Who's bidding on Accountant? I was going to get that -_-

Well I imagine NOT TOWN

I'm not content to see how today ends. In general short days don't help town much and we have a wage freeze to minimize the damages.

Use: Federal Reserve Chairman

[GreyICE]

Okay, I'm going to reluctantly sheep Ethos here. I trust drunk ICE, he's a better player than me, but the good point has been raised that SOMEONE outbid LLD on the gravedigger, and that wasn't town.

Unvote

[GreyICE]

At the moment, I strongly prefer a Newman lynch to a Mal lynch. Newman's point of 'I made a minor error and then did nothing else' is very much the problem. His vote on WLC was weak as sin, his commentary on Ghostlin or IceyGuy nonexistent, his desire for Peregrine or Chaos to die unknown, it's been a sea of 'no comment' from him. I might forgive it if he was a strong mechanical player and actively working to win bids, drain scum money, and being pro-town with abilities - I don't value abilities as much as most do, but at least I could see the town motivations.

He's just kind of floating along.

The entire panic with the $2 is excusable, lynch all liars can often hit town since scum in some respects check their lies better than town checks the truth (cowboy bebop and me much) but the play is nonexistent. Even today he's made some vague town-sounding noises (lemme transfer my money to someone if you lynch me) and not done much else. How does he feel about LLD or Mal? I dunno. I know how Chaos feels, I guess. Newman?

No. Fucking. Clue.

That's a problem that needs to be lynched. No one's his enemy, but no one is his friend.

[GreyICE]

- Cop is something that has been decided to be bid on by either myself or GreyICE, which of us exactly doesn't need to be revealed as of yet.

It's still under our control as of the last vote count.

[GreyICE]

I think the smiley indicates it's a joke

[GreyICE]

I know that's why I can never make you laugh no matter how hard I try :`(

[GreyICE]

'cause Ethos was winning it and I didn't feel like outing which one of us was bidding on it

[GreyICE]

Also

Vote: HelloNewman

That basically boils down to 'don't lynch me I have the cop ability' when you KNOW the neighborhood was pushing for it.

[GreyICE]

Unlimited bulletproof miller vigilante maybe.

[GreyICE]

No peace treaty prevents all NK preventions from working.

[GreyICE]

So the robber got
$50 day 1
$190 day 2
$212 day 3

So assuming he doesn't get any other sources of income and started with $100, he could have $500 today assuming he, I dunno, just won oracle?

Any other sources of income and this quickly becomes hilariously moot.

So I'd kinda like to know where you're going on that, Ethos. This number game all seems to be making assumptions about what scum have.

You know who I want to lynch, and I'm getting like... minimal support here, so explain mal to me one more time, nice and thorough.

[GreyICE]

Oh okay, so bring it up to $45.

I'll mechanically downgrade his scummyness, but it's a long shot from there to confirmed town.

[GreyICE]

Do we really want Peace Treaty claimed?

Didn't win either of the other two.

[GreyICE]

Okay seee


I thought you were scum because you were having these crazy theories.

Now I think you're scum because all your theories are sane.

Oh and Ghostlin threatened to investigate you and stuff which was really cool of him don't know why he knew you were scum but he so knew it and was like "back off or you get burned hun." And you were all like "shit no dawg I go for the throat like always" and he was like "Oh god it hurts my eyes my eyes it burns why does it hurt so bad god." And then like I missed it because you obv weren't scum with the victim you mauled all over this sidewalk jesus christ I think they've found his body parts on four continents but that didn't mean you weren't scum, just that you love me and I'm not arrogant and how long are these sentences supposed to go on for anyway, don't they end at some point I need to check strunk and wagner and I'm actually not effected by any mind altering drugs when I write this lol.


So yeah that explains 100% why LLD is scum.

Vote: Malpascp

[GreyICE]

I'm actually planning on pushing for it since I got a sizeable chunk of change mailed to me yesterday. Given RB and NK, if scum overbid me I'm going to be shocked.

[GreyICE]

Assumption I won it rather than Ethos quite interesting.

[GreyICE]

Why exactly not ask Ethos too?

[GreyICE]

Was I now? O_o

[GreyICE]

Meh, fair enough.

VoidedMafia is town. Was worried about the hitman/peace treaty interaction, and a mislynch on Newman.

[GreyICE]

If Newman was town, and Voided was scum with NK and Hitman, Voided-scum would have had a brilliant opportunity to frame Newman-town by using a Hitman-NK on, say, Seacore. We auto-lynch Newman, he flips town and bang we go into night phase with 2 non-town parties, and a pile of WIFOM.

I wanted to make good and sure if we had a corpse today that wasn't newman we could lynch him dead to rights. Plus I'm paranoid so well etc.

Still think you're a good shot. I don't know how you'd know I had a cop, maybe it was a lucky guess, but it rubs me wrong. What is up with that?

[GreyICE]

Meh, fair enough.

VoidedMafia is town. Was worried about the hitman/peace treaty interaction, and a mislynch on Newman.

So you invesigated... VoidedMafia...

Two Words

RED. COYOTE.

Oh come on I never trust Red Coyote he self admits he likes scum so much more that he plays noticably better as scum.

[GreyICE]

Voided or seacore taking the NK is fine by me. I just hated the foo foo yesterday where we all did a corn circle dance trying to figure out who would bid on what.

[GreyICE]

oh and

VOTE: LLD

In case it wasn't obv obv obv by now

[GreyICE]

Unvote

Day way too interesting to end early.

Plus Ethos has been coasting, coasting, coasting for the past day or two.

[GreyICE]

Actually he outbid me, so if anything I'd be the one to know for certain. However, it's more likely scum saved their night kill.

[GreyICE]

Oh, we had a discussion in the neighborhood QT.

I asked the moderator, and he clarified non-mafia parties would investigate as not-mafia. So third party is cop immune

[GreyICE]

I shot voided. Figured I wouldn't broadcast it to the neighborhood.

I'll go out on a limb and say blocked?

[GreyICE]

Then he didn't block me, or he's bulletproof.

Well this is narrowing the suspect pool nicely.

[GreyICE]

Yo Ethos, this is me postin to say that all the captain cryptic shit better be makin some sweet sense soon.

[GreyICE]

Alright, there's two possibilities, the first being LLD had Ninja the second being that Voided is the robber with ninja. If the first one is the case then the no-visit on Voided makes him clear however considering he's the only one who currently holds the knowledge of whether this is the case or not it's meaningless HOWEVER if someone wins Graverobber and uses it on LLD they can confirm/clear Voided. Let's play this scenario out, if we find out that she did have ninja we will have Voided as a 100% clear and the ability to know that robber cannot visit without being caught, this means we can advertise robber and continuously track people to mass-clear players or track robber into being unable to do anything.

Considering that it's now confirmed that robber has roleblocker it means that mafia (LLD) had the night-kill, since GreyICE was role-blocked there's only two night-kills in play being the night-kill auctioned today and the night-kill attached to LLD or Icey which will be stolen tonight. So what I suggest is this; We no lynch today however we give Seacore the hammer and tell him to snipe-massive bid on Graverobber before the day ends. We have another player bid on the night-kill and we ask them to not use it (I'm thinking Void due to his funds and the fact that he'll either be confirmed or cleared either way him holding a night-kill would be beneficial). This means there should be zero deaths tonight and any kill occurring would mean that either Seacore or Voided would become confirmed mafia otherwise we would be going into day seven with Voided being a clear holding night-kill. With this occurring we can have someone advertise doctor and save Voided every night while having people donate and ship funds to him.

Huh. Well we can't ever advertise doctor again.

Damn mechanics plan, Ethos, give me the meat. How's this going to catch scum for us, what's your reads, man?

[GreyICE]

Ugh. That means she didn't actually win gravedigger meaning that Robber did and stole Ninja of IceyGuy. Gah, ignore #1150 it's irrelevant now.

Slaxx needs to get online.

Wait, doesn't LLD have Ninja? That's investigation immunity he stole, and that means that not only is he non-mafia, he investigates as town, so cop shots are like 2x as worthless as they were.

Tracker results are still good, Voided is confirmed town.

[GreyICE]

Roleblocker (Targeted): Choose another player. All of their Targeted abilities that they activated for that night, except for roleblocks, will fail. Personal abilities will continue to work. Abilities that were not activated are not affected. If the Targeted ability would return a result, it will instead return “Ability failed”.

Considering that night-kill is a 'Targeted' ability would this receive a message back saying "Ability blocked" if roleblocked?

I didn't get any message.

Magua: ???

[GreyICE]

Understood, thanks for the clarification Magua. I think it's safe to say that GreyICE was roleblocked rather than an alternate acton occurring meaning the visit on Voided makes him clear as soon as someone wins gravedigger and checks LLD. Newmans volunteerism of being night-killed as opposed to lynched reads as a town-tell especially since he's not part of the neighborhood and therefore has no ability to convince the person holding night-kill to do differently at a later time.

Grey and Seacore, an elaboration on your current reads would be highly appreciated and Hip, you strongly believed Newman wasn't the SK just recently can you explain the change of heart without saying that it's solely due to Voided becoming clear please.

I don't hold that 'please just shoot me now for the good of the town' as ever being a town tell. People begging to be killed should be killed.

But if we're night killing Newman, then I'm voting for my suspect #2 if Voided is cleared.

Vote: Ethos

You've managed to lead this discussion around long enough, and while I had a town read, I just do not trust you.

We've had the entire discussion framed so that your role, your actions have never been quantified. And if we look at them, I can't say that I'm overly impressed by your towniness. A watcher shot, used on nothing. A neighborizor, very good for discussing things, but hardly an incredible use of our time.

At the moment, Ethos, we're clearing the board. You've been reasonably happy to go along with an agenda of people dying that seems selected more or less at random. Kill Pere, because you knew I thought ChaosOmega was scummy. Let's push mal, ICE thinks LLD is scummy and is as easy to deter as an avalanche.

Oh look, we need two kills for this day, man Hiphop is suddenly looking scummy since ICE is going to shoot Voided... oh that didn't work and voided is clear, lucky the backup plan is up and ticking.

We've been giving you a free pass, and it's rescinded.

[GreyICE]

My town read on HipHop is for pretty obvious reasons, but if I need to reiterate, HipHop is working as a member of a team. Not sheeping, not letting others make decisions for him, not only laying out his theories, not only critiquing others. When I post, he checks the details, and he asks me questions. Not to push my lynch, but to test the theory, see if it holds water, see if I'm on the right track or off. He's genuinely reading this thread and interacting with it.

You were going to check out Hiphop, but held off to check LLD out of respect for me? Welp, guess I really let down your respect there

And this is the nexus of the problem. Not that you thought Pere was scummy. I thought he was scummy enough. Not that you thought LLD was town. We've both been on a scumteam with her and watched it, it'd be crazy to suggest she can't wiggle like a greased eel and sting like a scorpion.

It's that everything seems to boil down to mechanics here. Mechanics are safe ways to have reads for two reasons. The first is they don't require effort. "A, B, and C are true, Captain, therefore Player X it is approximately 64.831% likely they are non-town." The second is that if you're scum, you don't shoot players who suspect you for mechanical reasons, unless the rest of the thread is herp-a-derp. If A, B, and C all point to you likely being scum today, they'll all point to you likely being scum tomorrow, you don't shoot the guy stating the obvious, you shoot the people who are reading you, watching you, interpreting what's happening.

Hiphop is playing well with others, and giving me reasoning. You are giving me lots, and lots of information.

I do respect you, Regfan. You suggest that Newman is likely town for his plea to die. Okay, money where mouth is, Regfan, if you had the night kill right now, and Hiphop flipped town, who would you deep six? Would you finish off Newman, the man sure to be town for his willingness to be shot at night to prove how townie he is (just not lynched so that his valuable auctions he's won like... errr... can be last willed to someone - 'cause he's incapable of using the system to mail money out). His willingness to be SHOT AT NIGHT when the robber has how goddamn many shots of roleblocker, assuming he got the gravedigger? Do we even know? Night kills aren't going off for a while unless he wants them to, Reggy, not unless we can use Gravedigger to double up for a night.

And he's willing to be SHOT at NIGHT so he's TOWN? And you dismiss this as a TOWN TELL without questioning it? Fucking hell, the only way on this planet I'd think that was a town tell is if I could PROVE HE WAS TOWN FROM MY ROLE.

Am I adequately explaining to everyone why I think that Regfan and Slaxx are just sliding along with prevailing opinion? Just searching for their own little lynches? I am so, so certain that if we wake up tomorrow with no one dying overnight and hiphop being town, he'll reluctantly consent to the Newman lynch to make me happy, just as he reluctantly conceded to investigate LLD to keep me happy. Get one of his own lynches, give us one of ours. The town is in good hands with Ethos at the wheel.

[GreyICE]

Gi, if Ethos was the robber, why would he RB you? I believe a Newman lynch would be better.

And yes, I am pretty sure based on the Qt, that you would kill either Void or Hn, not Ethos.

Why wouldn't he RB me? Think about who I suggested VERY strongly I would kill in the QT. Not voided. Newman.

First that was the obvious - voided doesn't think he's getting the bullet, he doesn't duck it.

But think about it for a second. Ethos claimed to be RBed the night Newman had Peace Treaty and no kill went through. LLD had the night kill according to voided.

Every indication was that she could have shot Newman and chose not to. Now assume Newman isn't the robber (and frankly LLD would be LESS likely to shoot him if she thought he was the robber, scum on scum infighting that doesn't earn you any town cred when there's that many dead scumbags is just dumb and LLD would never be described by anyone as in any way stupid). Is the robber likely to want Newman dead at this stage?

Nah. If Newman isn't the robber, then he hardly has the cash to threaten the robber in winning bids compared to other townies right now, and chances are he'll be lynched or shot eventually. The more resources the town expends with him alive, at this stage, the better for the robber. Robber has to be playing for a later game than this at 5:1 - he has to get a night kill, for fucks sake, before he does anything else

There's plenty of reasons a robber would want Newman nice and alive. LLD wanted Newman alive, Robber has very similar motivations to do the same.

[GreyICE]

Voided pushing for Graverobber makes more sense, because if he loses that, we get a night of lag time before the night kill is in scum hands, unless we have ReaperCharlie resolution in this game.

I might bid minimum on commuter, but not more. Scum winning it is not exactly a heartbreak, since the scum can RB our NKer anyway. I guess for if we lose control of the night kill, but at that point it needs to be Seacore or Voided bidding on it. Haha, I have an idea:

Seacore and Voided, both bid $25 on the commuter at some point in the next 12-36 hours (after the sunday vote count, but before the monday one). Whoever bids first will be winning, whoever bids second will lose $1 (since you don't win if your bid isn't higher). Don't announce it in thread, do it whenever. Scum can overbid you, costing them funds they can use on NK, at which point whoever is winning can push it up or let it be lost if they don't want to spend the money. If scum doesn't touch it, they can't safely shoot either of you, since either of you could have the commuter, and whoever has it will be commuting. There will be no way to tell based on in-thread activity, since both of you will submit the bid.

That pushes any scum won night kills off of you two, at the low cost of $25. Or makes them fight for the right to steal an ability they'll never effectively use.

[GreyICE]

And there's always the small, small possibility I throw my hat in the ring for $25 too.

Never been a scum controlled kill in this game, we'll keep it that way.

[GreyICE]

I'd prefer a little WIFOM about where protective abilities like commuters and doctors end up, so don't want any certainty in whose winning that. The 'both bid $25' allows that with the chance that scum choose to bid $25 too and get in before either of them.

For the mechanics, that works for me. I'll probably just transfer my cash to people I trust, I'm out of the big leagues for bidding purposes.

[GreyICE]

There is something else, if Ethos was planning on winning RB, why would he tell me to bid all I had on the Rb. And there was the fact that he would have had the $300 on cop, plus the $500 on RB, when there is no indication that the sk ought to have that many funds, unless the SK get about the same wages as what we get.

Duuude, we can argue about how much funds he gets all we want, but he gets the same or more than town, this seems OBVIOUS

[GreyICE]

Well I mean what's the point of a role that doesn't get its own night kill, doesn't win with the town, prevents the town from winning, and gets less money than any single townie?

I mean do we call that 'designated loser' or what?

[GreyICE]

LyLo?

O_o

Say what now?

[GreyICE]

I've said my piece on how I think the game is going to end.

I think that winning the peace treaty when he was about to be lynched would be a very sane move for Newman-robber. He'd have to gamble that LLD wouldn't shoot him, of course, would think herself more likely to win the game with him alive than dead, but given the scarcity of night kills for scum and the value of Newman in-thread, it'd be a fairly safe bet.

I don't see hiphop as scum here, and I'm not talking Ethos 'well LLD is probably town' I'm talking a nice, firm strong town read based on his play and actions.

I'll be doing some sort of split of my cash between Seacore and Voided tonight, since I'm going to have extreme trouble winning anything. Almost rather have seacore go NK, Voided gravedigger so I could lump sum it on Seacore, but lets just get people bidding so we can lynch scum without sitting here waiting for... I dunno, the four horsemen?

[GreyICE]

Grey, Seacore NEEDS to get Gravedigger because him doing so either completely clears or confirms Voided whereas the other way there's no confirmation or clearance. Look, I'm done attempting to convince you that I'm town because you seem to have paranoia drummed into your head to the point where you're not even reading the points I'm putting forward, I just want your word that when I get lynched and flip town you make sure hiphop gets lynched or shot for me.

Fine, lets do it that way, whatever. I don't care about the mechanical stuff, because I am

not lynching a town read that strong.

I am reading what you are saying, and I am telling you it doesn't convince me. You want him dead? You sell the rest of the town.

[GreyICE]

Sigh, Slaxx seems insistent that the self-vote makes Hiphop town. I'm slightly less convinced but I do know that the both of us do need to re-read this bitch at some point in the next few days.

what is this i dont even

[GreyICE]

You are fucking hydra chain yanking us, aren't you? Goddamn it.

Vote Ethos with the fire of a thousand suns

[GreyICE]

Hydra bickering is not a town tell, and this set is pissing me off, as is complex night action plans of doom.

You see, seacore? You see where all this talk of mechanical wobbledeedoo leads? Pick Your Power, Seacore. It's not pretty.

[GreyICE]

Heck, I won't even play coy. Grey, say you lynch us today, we flip town, Newman gets shot tonight, he flips town. Then who's scum?

Seriously? At that point I hope night actions deconfirm Voided, because Hiphop is just not scum, and I don't think Seacore is either, for so many reasons.

Why are you asking me why I only have two candidates for scum, with one preferred, when there's ONLY ONE SCUM LEFT?

Seriously, I might have quite a few scummy people day 1 in a large with 5 or 6 scum, but there's ONE SCUMBAG here, why are you expecting players to have 3-4 scumreads?

[GreyICE]

If we're doing it that way,

Seacore -> Hiphop -> VoidedMafia -> Newman -> You

I don't really want to imply that each -> represents a linear jump downwards, like you seem to want me to. I especially am not overwhelmed by the idea that the Hiphop case is anything other than 'oh shit we really need to kill someone who isn't HelloNewman stat if we want to live through this.' Voided is still, ever since giving me an early town read, dodging the thread, which adds to be very consistent with a third party who was actually genuinely scumhunting. Not RBing me would make him town if it was anything other than a SK, but the number of bulletproof SKs is fairly high. Still, his luck would have to be running like the gods ('saved' by the doctor, cleared by a bulletproof, decided to not even use roleblocker on the tracker or the guy submitting the night kill, etc.) and that seems farfetched.

I've read everything you've said about Hiphop, read him in the thread, and I still don't see it. I don't see why you think that he's trying to 'make friends' when I don't think he is. He's working with me and the town, but come the fuck on. Just buddying everyone? Oh no. He's poked me hard a few times to see if what I was saying was at all logical, and disagreed with me to boot. That's not so much buddying as working with town reads, I'm getting used to the difference. You don't jab the people you're buddying in the stomach and ask them what the hell they're doing with their logic.

The 'attempts to figure today out' he's doing seem, if not 'exactly what optimal play is,' heads and shoulders above, say, VoidedMafia, Seacore, and HelloNewman, which puts to rest the idea that town absolutely wouldn't play like that. So again, it seems unfounded.

And then we get to this hydra waffle. At the exact time when the SK would need a desperate action to have a hope of winning, hiphop does a desperate action, and now the hydra is all 'welp infighting' and slaxx is like 'later y'all kill everyone lol' and now we're conflicted.

So, overall, yeaaaaahhhhhhh. Not too worried about the game being ongoing after this lynch.

[GreyICE]

I've done NOTHING else with my shopping spree powers because I need an advertised ability, and only two have been advertised. I still have one shot of it sitting in reserve, but the decision not to advertise anything yesterday means that the best I can do is snag a 1 shot of anything that is advertised tonight, and use it tomorrow night.

Which is not optimal, but since I can't advertise beans, well, that's that. I'd rage, since I did ask in the QT for things to be advertised, but it's water under the bridge, and this game has NOT been won using powers (seriously, we caught, what, zero scum on tracker/watcher/cop results?)

[GreyICE]

Vote: Ethos

Guess what changed?

Nada.

[GreyICE]

Oh and yeah, I don't want today to be about recriminations.

Yes, Newman derped up by not letting Voided hammer.
Yes, Voided should have unvoted so he could have taken the hammer.
Yes, Voided should have sniped his own goddamn bid.

Yes, this is over and done with and we can discuss it in the postgame. Today we're lynching scum, not getting distracted by bad play from town.

[GreyICE]

I DIDN'T FUCKING HAVE THE WATCHER

[GreyICE]

Look, here's confirmed town hiphop saying he bid on the watcher.

1. I had bid $450 on watcher, not GI. If you want to spend $451 go ahead and take it.

Look, here's Ethos calling it scummy that he announced how much he's bidding on the watcher.

1. I had bid $450 on watcher, not GI. If you want to spend $451 go ahead and take it..

Take a fucking lookie at this, town DON'T want to bid high on items, town almost DON'T want to reveal that they have bid a lot on an item because it's an open invitation to the robber to bid $449 ($1 below the current largest bid) and guarentee that the winning bid isn't him but is $450 giving him some fucking money to steal.

Who wants to state that they have bid a lot on an item? Who wants to invite others to outbid them a massive amount on an item? Hmmmmmmmmm. That's a hard one. Now can we get some votes on hiphop PLEASE.

Look, here's how much Watcher went for:

#	Name	Minimum Bid	Winning Bid	Auction Length
42	Gravedigger x 1	$40	$40	7 days
43	Night-kill x 1	$50	$101	7 days
44	Watcher x 1	$20	$200	7 days

NO I DIDN'T THINK TO BID SNIPE MY STRONGEST TOWN READ.

NOT MECHANICAL CONFIRMATION, BUT READ. ACTUAL READ. MY STRONGEST ONE.

JESUS CHRIST.

HOW DID THREE TOWNIES MANAGE TO VOTE FOR THIS?

[GreyICE]

*snarl*

Fucking fine.

Unvote

I need to sell Voided AND Newman on this to lynch you, so lets

discuss

it and then we'll see.

[GreyICE]

So whose scum now? Is it newman after all? Trololol. Dude, him being alive on Day 7 screams "YEP SOMEONE WANNA MISLYNCH THAT AT LYLO"

And... whose been pushing newman as town up until now?

SHIT.

I'm psychic. And I had a vision. It's coming through in a flash. It's searing through my brain.

It's the vision of a snake. A snake with many heads. It speaks, and venom drips from it's mouth. "We've been discussing," it says, "we've been discussing the game. And we've decided that the last scum is... HelloNewman!"

Fuck Sylvia Browne, she can't touch this shit.

[GreyICE]

Y'all can thank me in the postgame, by the way, by nominating for the Best Replacement scummy.

Ghostlin? Called it. Got him lynched.
LLD? Called it. If I didn't get her lynched, me tossing bricks at her sure as hell don't help her.
Hiphop? Town? Called it. Y'all had listened to me and we'd be sipping Margaritas right now.
Ethos? Called it.

Right here. Right goddamn here. Better than half the scum in the game, and I replaced in at L-1.

That's what's cooking today, folks. Cooking with gas. No townies harmed in the making of this production, just nudge that ChaosOmega under the table there, that's it, slide the tablecloth down a bit and... we're good!

[GreyICE]

After this? Fuck, you're confirmed town with a hitman. You were overbid yesterday, that makes you even MORE confirmed town, 'cause you weren't overbid by flying monkies.

If Ethos is by some fucking miracle town, then I guess it is Newman. You really think that?

[GreyICE]

You know what?

I'm actually peeved.

I know you're town, so this has to be honestly your suspicion. You're telling me that you think there's a chance that the Hiphop wagon went through, 4 players in 6 voting for it, no self voting, and scum is the one sole player OFF the wagon?

WUUUUTTTTTTT

NO THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO BE A DERP VOIDED

[GreyICE]

Magua: Can you choose to pay more to raise the bid on an auction than $1 more than the lower bid?

For instance, say I bid $200 on an auction with a minimum bid of $40 and no one else is bidding. Can I choose for the winning bid to be $101 rather than $40?

[GreyICE]

Yeah, I say we do.

Vote: Ethos

Go ahead, Voided.

[GreyICE]

BUT I DIDN'T WANT YOU PARANOID

[GreyICE]

In case you were wondering, there was a love potion that prevented Voidedmafia for voting for me on the last day, so I was actually entirely unlynchable.

Also you couldn't have killed me, even with hitman

[GreyICE]

Yeah, bulletproof OR Roleblocker it'll punch through, but not both

I never submitted a Night Kill on you, so the plan was for you to win and actually do a double kill night, then win without the thread ever reopeneing, but instead we kinda had that last abortion of a day. Sorry for that.

PEdit: Sorry Slaxx.

[GreyICE]

http://www.quicktopic.com/46/H/sjechEvZB78p

That's my Quicktopic.

It'll explain an awful fucking lot. Especially those nitwits Ghostlin and Bobsnox claiming to each other day 1 where I could see them...

[GreyICE]

The biggest gamble for me was day 2. MS had already claimed to bid on an auction he clearly couldn't have bid on, and thus was obviously scum. He also wanted a ninja for no comprehensible reason. Furthermore, I was pretty much at L-1, and if I wasn't lynched, was going to die.

The 1v1 with Ghostlin was my big gamble. I knew from the UTTD that the last will would toss it to RC/Voided, and that the cop was actually on WLC. With the cop NOT showing up on the scumbag, my claim of 'shenanigans' regarding the cop bid did make it look like scum 'sekret powahs,' especially since NO ONE SANE would claim to bid $97 on an auction that went for $95, scum or town. Claiming I didn't bid on the Ninja he bid on (He really did bid on it) made his play look even MORE skitzo, and helped sell the 'he didn't immediately counterclaim scum' insanity. I had to gamble Ghostlin would react exactly like scum, but he had no idea what was going on (since the mysterious scum power I claimed obviously didn't exist, so he was like 'waaaaaaaa'), and reacted exactly like caught scum.

Throw in me shipping 'all my money' to Voided, and I had my fingers crossed I'd move from day 2 as 'L-1, lets lynch him' to 'nigh-confirmed town.' Or, well, get lynched, but if I didn't do something dramatic that would happen ANYWAY. After that it was a matter of doing exactly what Ghostlin accused me of in the QT (bussing LLD without voting for her or trying to get her lynched in any strong way) and letting the town drag me to weird places.

[GreyICE]

Everything after that was fairly typical scumplay

[GreyICE]

In general, well, meta isn't my favorite. The only thing it's ever done to me is to get me mislynched for 'playing differently than when I was town.' Here it got me cleared for 'playing differently than when I was scum,' I guess, so yay for firsts, but I think it's close enough for my point to stand.

I'm sure eventually I'll be scum, someone will make a meta argument, and I'll get lynched and they'll all be 'well meta works, see, ignore all those other times it didn't' but the fact remains it's a pool of confirmation bias.

If you guys had hammered the setup spec more you could have outed me, but honestly, I was in a fairly good spot for most of the game. Better coordination of abilities and advertising might have helped.

[GreyICE]

well this just means certain people can't meta though, not that the concept is invalid. i mean you can't treat everyone the same in a game, so meta comes into play there straight away.

I'd agree to a point, if I see similar quality of posting from MoI that I would expect from Vezok, I'd probably be like 'durrr wut' and start poking like hell, but in general, I'd say that's probably where it stops, a pointing flag.

I think there's an awful lot of confirmation bias when it comes to meta. A meta argument for a player gets the wrong alignment so people say 'oh meta was misapplied.' A meta argument succeeds, and people say that 'oh meta is a great tool.'

Thing is I have another tool that does that. I call it a quarter. Heads town, tails scum. It fails, well, quarter was misflipped. It succeeds, quarter tells are obv excellent.

Null hypothesis is that arguments based entirely on meta are about as good as that quarter, and so far pure meta arguments seem little better than that. (Pure meta - comparing a player's play in this game to a player's play in a scum game and a town game, and determining which it more closely resembles).

I might be convinced to go slightly farther and say it can work quite well on newer players who derp up in their scum games and overreact, but for experienced players, meta ain't going to catch them.

I made a post in Albert B. Rampage's thread about this, although I didn't say it was specifically inspired by this game. You're not looking for the 95% body of work with a good player, you're looking for the little 5% things they really want to do that betray scum motivations (in my case it was me using arguments against LLD that were essentially strawmen - reasonably easily refuted, thus making the case against her weaker, while still positioning myself to gain town cred for her flip. Also my lack of desire to mail money to any confirmed town, despite claiming not to make much money, and thus being unlikely to outbid the Robber on anything).

It doesn't matter if 95% of my play is town, if 5% of it would only happen if I had scum motivations.