Open 325: Paris Mafia III - Game Over

[milkshake]

/confirme, et bounjour mes amis. Je comprends mon PM.

My french is sorely lacking, but I think this is the coolest setup.

[milkshake]

Good morning Paris! It's so nice to see you here, etc. etc.. I think reckoner is a mime, and Maruchan is mafia. (Looks like that's exactly what Empking thinks, too, but so be it.)

Vote: Maruchan

[milkshake]

Regarding h--yuu's comments about not lynching and hoping for good vig shots: I wanted to point out that as already mentioned there is absolutely no need to do this now because we can lynch one mime safely. BUT, IF we lynch a mime, then there could be some serious merit to relying on the vig shots if we're comfortable with the scumteam situation and/or really scared of lynching the second mime (due to not very many lynch options or what-have-you.)

Also, I think h--yuu is town.

Also, what is up with racerman13? 0.o

[milkshake]

Real quick regarding racerman13: he blatently wants us to think he's a mime.

(I know it's early and he's only made a few posts, but it's conspicuous to the point of being fact. I mean, he intentionally waited until he was mentioned and then posted the most bandwagony/least townish thing he could think of. Since it's so obvious now I don't feel bad pointing it out- he will probably change his play now but that shouldn't change this assessment. Speak up if you disagree with me.)

So for that reason he should be the vig target and not Maru. I feel Maru makes an OK lynch.

[milkshake]

By the way I didn't mean to sound like I was issuing an ultimatum with that second to last statement. In my opinion he should be the vig target and not Maru. Regarding other players besides those already mentioned (Maru, Reckoner)- well, I haven't heard much from most of them I guess? Kanyeknowsbest seems like he's probably town...

I wanted to ask Empking, wasn't your initial impression that Maru was scum? Do you still think that or do you think swdinirwlt mime now (based on your vigging discussion)?

[milkshake]

Yeah, I have noooo idea what happened with "swdinirwlt," but you understand/understood my question. Okay, glad to know that you are happy with the Maru lynch and it looks like a Marulynchwagon is going to work out well- once we hear from the rest of the players- even if the wagon is partially ridden by nutty people like raceman13.

Speaking of which, I notice racerman13 did not vote Maru, opting for xReckonerx. racerman13: You clearly stated you thought Maru was one of the two "most suspicious players." Does this mean you will support his lynch/wagon if that's where the town is going? (I assume so?)

[milkshake]

Regarding xReckonerx: It will be fantastically easy to reconsider him day 2 or whenver there aren't any mimes. All we need to do is vig a mime tonight (not hard as far as I'm concerned), then we can proceed totally free of mimes and wifomyness. It will be much better.

I don't buy Maru mime- do people pull the "I'm depressed with forum mafia and I want to die" routine when they don't mean it? Especially since it doesn't of itself invite lynching. I honestly am now changing my mind: I think it might be genuine and Maru could be town.

---

Here's one way to look at the logic for nolynching, this time under the assumption that racerman13 is a mime:

There's lynch/mafiakill/mimesdie which takes us to 7p, then lynch/mafiakill/vig down to 4p. 4p is pretty awkward, and getting to 5p by skipping a kill (novig or nolynch) won't help. In 4p we only get one more town directed kill (in 3p the next day after nolynching), in 5p we've just delayed our kill a little bit for a slight benefit. That's

4

towndirected kills.

The no lynch alternative is nolynch/mafiakill/mimes die down to 8p, then lynch/mafiakill/vig to 5p, then lynch/mafiakill to 3p, then lynch.

Important:

This option is much better! It is also

4

town directed kills but they happen

later

with fewer targets. (Fewer targets as everyone knows means a better chance of hitting mafia.)

RB and Watcher can of course come in to play but by and large they cannot change this skeleton assessment.

So: nolynching is QUITE good if we can get the mimes to die, which I believe we can.

I know I previously said that we shouldn't consider nolynching until we've already lynched one mime- that was incorrect because I did not realize we were not giving up a kill by nolynching. Combined with my newfound doubts about Maruchan, this means

unvote, vote: nolynch

.

(By the way you guys were looking at the night actions and stuff and those assessments seem good too.)