Mini 1219 - Bedtime Stories Mafia - Game Over!

[Thomith]

I don't like the way that not many people are thinking about voided now, i know other things have popped up but it sort of seems it has let voided slip under the radar a little imo.

I don't see how i am misrepping you, yes you didn't say i am conf scum but i am pretty sure if EB does flip town you would be on my case right away for that reason.
I agree that town don't misrep others but scum usually think the person is scum by misrepping then, which i don't think you are scum.

[Banshee]

My current problem is this.

We have two power roles claimed. One was run up to lynch, one is on deck for tomorrow. I don't agree to this and I won't support it, at least not at this time. EvilBullet is claiming even night jailkeeper. That means his claim can't be tested tonight at all. Rainbowdash semicounterclaimed, and now says that it's based on balance issues and not believing two things would be in the game at the same time.

Because of the size of the game, even-night roles don't exactly make sense. That said, I've seen stranger things. But in order to vote for Rainbowdash tomorrow or insist on a claim, you have to believe:

• 1. That EB is town and RBD is scum (duh, of course)
  2. That RBD is the sort of scum who is willing to trade one for one with a relatively useless powerrole for town (even-night jailkeeper isn't the most useful thing, everyone will admit)

The first might be possible. The second? I don't think so. I think Rainbow is a pretty canny player and I think she would never agree to such a one-for-one trade.

That said, I don't know if EB is town or scum. I have enough doubt that I'm not going to jump on that wagon. I suspect that one of our two claimed power-roles will be nightkilled tonight, and then we can lynch the other if that seems warranted (which it may) but I don't want to do the scum's job for them.

I still got my eye on you, Thomith, so don't relax.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: VoidedMafia

[Beck]

Why don't even night roles make sense?

[Ellibereth]

My instinct is that it's optimal for rainbow to fullclaim here but I want to see what llama thinks.

[Thomith]

but if one of EB/RD is scum why would scum sacrifice a member earlier by killing a claim at night when they could save the scum untill the next night if they manage to get the mislynch off?
(this is assuming we don't lynch one today)

[Evil Bullet]

oh my god are you kidding me

[Banshee]

Why don't even night roles make sense?

The number of players and hence the number of likely nights available for those actions, mainly. If you had an odd-night role, you would have a better chance of getting to use the power at all, but even that is iffy. It's just not that usual because of the math.

Say you start with 13 players:

• 13 players
  -1 lynched
  -1 nightkilled
  11 players
  -1 lynched
  -1 nightkilled
  1 use of power
  9 players
  -1 lynched
  -1 nightkilled
  7 players
  (at this point, most games are close to over, but we continue...)
  -1 lynched
  -1 nightkilled
  5 players
  -1 lynched
  -1 nightkilled
  3 uses of power best case scenario

It's just very limiting and usually would be expressed as an "X-shot" rather than an "even-night" to allow for it to actually be used more than once. Thus, I can see why someone would doubt this claim.

However, I don't want to second-guess the mod, but I don't want to lynch EB today either.

@Thomith: Can you rephrase that? I've no idea what you're trying to say, sorry.

[Thomith]

say one of RD or EB is scum, they both say each other are scum because of their role, we lynch someone else letting both live.
Scum would not be likely to kill the person who is not scum between the two, because it will most likely cause the other to get lynched, they will probably kill a random person and try to get the mislynch the next day making the mafia live annother night.
However if we lynch one today and one of them is scum they will not live past night 2.
Am i overthinknig this?

[Thomith]

EBWOP: not live past day 2

[Banshee]

No, I see what you mean.

There is no point in them killing EB tonight if he is not scum unless they believe he will not be lynched tomorrow. There is a point to them killing RBD if she is town as long as she remains unclaimed, however, because she may be an investigative role that could cause them serious harm.

Essentially:

• If both EB and RBD are town and RBD does not claim:
  Mafia may kill unclaimed RBD and push a lynch of EB tomorrow.
  Mafia may kill EB and push a lynch of RBD tomorrow, risking her giving an investigation on someone in the town.
  
  If both EB and RBD are town and RBD does claim:
  If RBD is a dangerous role they may elect to kill her over EB and push his lynch tomorrow.
  If EB is more dangerous to them than RBD they may kill him and then push a lynch on her tomorrow.
  
  If EB is scum and RBD is town and does not claim:
  RBD is gone, sorry. No help on that, scum really has to get rid of her. She could be a cop for all they know.
  
  If EB is scum and RBD is town and claims:
  If RBD is not perceived as a threat she may be left alive for WIFOM.
  
  If RBD is scum and EB is town (I already explained why I don't think that is possible, actually -- they're trading one for one)
  
  If both are scum... um, we lynch them if they don't die? I don't think scum can leave these power roles alive, especially not knowing RBD's role. So I don't want her claiming today.

My take on things.

[Ellibereth]

You guys are missing a key point
Still waiting for llama
GODDAMNIT LLAMA

[Llamarble]

I am somewhere between neutral and pro-Rainbow-fullclaiming right now.
It's significantly in our favor if she's scum, and scum already know she's some kind of interesting thing so it probably doesn't hurt us much if she's town.
I do doubt she's scum though unless EB also is, since scum don't CC / 1v1 town D1 very often.
Especially good townleadery scum who would expect to last a long time.
And I'm just a bit concerned she'll claim bulletproof and we'll miss out on a nokill/conftown.
And if she claims doctor scum will kill her 100%...
Hm.

[weirdvoigts]

Sorry guys, I honestly did think that was a hammer.

I've thought Rainbowdash over, and changed my mind. Why would scum, who was a townread for many people, counterclaim a PR that would very likely be lynched anyways? It just doesn't make sense. Based off of EB's reaction to being hammered, I think he's town too, although now that I think about it, did he know that it was actually L-1 and just playing along? But I'm just rambling now. I still think he's pretty town though, the reaction seemed genuine.

Still think Neruz is scummy, still think Voided is scummy, still think Thomith is scummy. Thomith especially now, as I agree entirely with Bvoigt's post a little while back:

EBWOP: What do you mean,

town

"hammering" a town read is scummy? That's a pretty bad slip there.

UNVOTE: VOTE: Thomith

This is a good catch, but on the other hand Thomith's typing skills aren't that great.

I just want to remember this particular quote because I think it's another case of Thomith being a little too knowledgeable about someone's alignment.

Or me mistyping what i meant to say? or is there no chance of this ever happening?

But this seems like a twisting of words.

-bvoigt

I shouldn't really talk though, I usually have about 50 typos per post.

Banshee also seems pretty town for finding that slip of Thomith's. Seems like genuine motivation there.

Readlist:
TOWN
Evil Bullet
Rainbowdash
Banshee
Beck
hiphop
implosion

NULL
Ellibereth
Llamarble
Sleuth

SCUM
Voidedmafia
Thomith
Neruz

These are just my reads, although I think Bvoigt agrees with a lot of them.

~Wierdalexv

[weirdvoigts]

LOL NINJA'D on the first point.

[Ellibereth]

Llama
what about the thing and the stuff
she's not alt not part of sight
balance
site meta hole
LALALALALACODE

you follow?

[Thomith]

You guys are missing a key point

Which is?

Also imo we should get rid of them before possible lylo, as we don't need them screwing us in lylo if we leave one of them alive and they are town and we lynch them in lylo, or they are scum and we let them live because of WIFOM in lylo.

Banshee also seems pretty town for finding that slip of Thomith's

You say you make typos but think i am scummy for making one?

[Banshee]

@Thomith: I cannot speak for Weird but I did not consider that a typo. It may be a mistake, but it's a whole word, not a misspelling or a misuse of the word. It is the unconscious, unintentional tells that usually mean the most.

Why did you suggest attention be given to VoidedMafia and then not follow up with a vote or discussion about him at all?

[Llamarble]

Hm, 'my role makes multiscums unlikely' + 'my role makes an even night jailkeeper unlikely' = ???
I guess I am confused enough by that that having her fullclaim might make sense.
Is that what you mean?

[Thomith]

Why did you suggest attention be given to VoidedMafia and then not follow up with a vote or discussion about him at all?

Because we have current things that we need to deal with before that. Like the semi counterclaim.

[Banshee]

I don't like the way that not many people are thinking about voided now, i know other things have popped up but it sort of seems it has let voided slip under the radar a little imo.

Why are you currently contradicting yourself from just a little while ago?

[Ellibereth]

yeah that and other stuff
like her person and relation to site meta.
aergaergreg
I think we're on the same wavelength and I think I mean it's optimal for her to fullclaim.

Thomith I'm only doing this with llama for a reason.

[Banshee]

@Elli: Do you think that EvilBullet is likely scum? Who tops your scumlist currently?

[Ellibereth]

You're not getting any reads until this Rainbow stuff is sorted out.

[Thomith]

[qupte"banshee"]Why are you currently contradicting yourself from just a little while ago?[/quote]
I am not. I do think that voided seems to be slipping under the radar but i do feel that current events are more important.

[Banshee]

I was going to make a snarky comment to Elli but then I read him over in isolation and I mostly agree with his reads so I decided not to.

@Thomith: Then why bring it up?

• [sarcasm]
  "Oh, say, Town, let us not forget our previous suspicion of the most excellent VoidedMafia, whom I note Banshee has in fact voted TWICE now, but... oh, don't mind me. I don't want you ACTUALLY to pay attention to VoidedMafia. But if you read me in isolation later, then you'll surely notice that I brought up VoidedMafia, which will be MOST helpful in getting me off the hook at a later date when VM flips scum. Thank you and good day!"
  [/sarcasm]

Note that the above is not intended to be a direct or indirect representation of your play, Thomith. But it is a representation of how your recent play is making me FEEL.