Strategy Mafia (Town Victory!)

[Llamarble]

Regfan, do you have scumreads other than Magua?

[Regfan]

@ Llarmable -

Yeah, I do, only other one that I'm relatively confident on is Tclwaren though. Baby Spice, Amrum, Nautilus and Lost Butterfly are my other scum-reads but they're fluctuating between null and weak scum way too often for my liking.

[Klazam]

Amrun- You move me to campfire

Reg- I'd prefer it if somebody else who havent used blue chit move me.

Llama- I have a really good reason to change targets.

[Klazam]

Maru- Vote your highest scumspect, please.

[Klazam]

Klazam, why do you want to choose a new person to follow so much?
I feel like scum knowing that a cycle is going on means you'll only be able to catch scum in the act as opposed to just seeing who doesn't have the chips they should have.

I cannot see how many chits my target holds, i can just see the moves my target makes for that round.

I do have a good reason to move, though.

[Nobody Special]

Assuming 1 scumteam about how many scum are in the settup.

With 20 players?

Could be 5-6?

And a minute later:

@ Feysal -

As I said previously, the plan doesn't work due to mafia having used blue chits and a complete lack of time for us to test everyone's blue chits remaining. It's not worth even attempting due to the massive amount of effort and confusion it'll lead towards.

@ Nautlius -

Guessing between 5 and 6.

While I'm certainly not disputing the figure of 5 or 6 scum in a 20p game, I do worry that we have 35rd parties floating about. Also, (and I admit right up front this is nitpicky) Regfan saying "between 5 and 6" seems scummy and obfuscating. Why not say "either" 5 or 6?

You know, we have an obvtown claimed VT and more chits than we really know what to do with.
I propose we ship Maru all the way to the potions room.
Thoughts?

you scum trying to keep Feysal out of Security?

I'm sorry to be so dense, but can you walk me through the connection here? Why can we not do both (moving Feysal to Security AND move Maru to potions)?

I think that moving Maru to potions would be a good thing. He would inherit a power, and we could use that. I don't see a drawback, except having to choose another door controller.

@ Feysal -

As I said previously, the plan doesn't work due to mafia having used blue chits and a complete lack of time for us to test everyone's blue chits remaining. It's not worth even attempting due to the massive amount of effort and confusion it'll lead towards.

It is not round 3, it is round 2. Two rounds left to use blue chits, unless I'm mistaken.

I can at least try to draw up a plan to use all blue chits. If I cannot do that and have all moves confirmable, I will give up on this idea.

My understanding is that we have sent in two moves, and it is now Round Two. Therefore, we are next sending moves for Round Three, which is indeed that final blue chit round.

Klazam, why do you want to choose a new person to follow so much?

Am I the only one who thinks this post is

fucking awful

?

Nope.

Action re-submitted; should be okay now.

If Amrun doesn't see this, someone remind me to ask her when she gets back: Did you edit the PM, or perhaps delete it and send a new one? Because if Zor opened it, any new PM after that will cost you more. (Trying to keep track of chits and keep track of Amrun's intentions.)

[Regfan]

@ Nobody Special -

Intially I was thinking between 4 and 6 was realistic then figured 4 is likely too few and changed it to a 5. I don't think that a third party is likely in this sort of setup, I think they would be hindered too much though I thought the same about Marketplace mafia and the third party won so what do I know. What's your strongest town and scum-reads at the moment? (Reasoning with it would be appreciated)

Does anyone else notice the 21st player in the game called name in the map on Nexus?

[Nobody Special]

Regfan -- That's iamausername. If you count carefully, there are only 20 circles, one for each player.

I don't like that question. It feels like you're trying to stir up shit.

Reads in a few minutes.

[Lost Butterfly]

I'm not fully caught up, have to leave for work in five hours, and was supposed to be the head who did nothing but help with strategy for the first week. But Faraday is being emo right now, so I have to do this because he's apparently too terrible at Mafia to post reads in a game or something.

this post contains 0% strategems

LLD is pretty town, I don't exactly know what LB is going on about? we're not lynching her today anyway. move yo shit

Actually, I kind of agree with you. Faraday didn't like her calling us town immediately, and found some of her questioning of xRECKONERx awkward. And I was willing to defer to his judgment because he'd nailed LLD right out the gates in DEFCON 3.0. But I'm looking at her now and kind of scratching my head at why our vote is still on her. Aside from all the hints about doors, she's pretty aggressive and dogged in how she questions her suspects, which I see as town-motivated. Although I don't always like her reasoning, she at least looks like she's trying to figure stuff out.

So after some discussion, I've persuaded Faraday to move our vote.

VOTE: iamausername

Partly the same "discrediting Maruchan" case that was already mentioned (particularly since I think he latched onto a point Feysal had made immediately before), and partly because his posting has felt really oily. Maybe it's just that it sets me on edge whenever anyone repeatedly addresses the town as "we," as in "We as a town clearly must lynch this player." It often comes across as pompous or trying too hard to include oneself in the group.

...that said, fuck. The more I read iam's third post, the more I get the opposite impression hito did, and think it's kind of townish (albeit at a player who's always easy to make a case on). Hang on. I'll wait for Faraday to wake up and see what he thinks, because we finally agreed on iam.

I want tclawren to claim as quickly as possible what move he submitted before I come to a final decision. (Seriously, you'd better claim long before the end of Round 3.)

Actually...

Faraday apparently didn't understand the wagon on tc, and he's gone to sleep since I started writing this. But I just took a look at tclawren myself, and ehhh. Never mind that I wasn't fond of the way he kissed up to Maruchan (although I agree that the post in question is obvtown). His points are pretty superficial.

Not liking Plum. I'm trying to figure out why people are voting LLD now. Give me a half hour.

Just read the beginning again. I can see why people are voting LLD. might join wagon later.

You spend lots of time defending why it's consistent for you to be willing to join the wagon even if your top suspect is Amrun. But humour me. Why WOULD you join the wagon on LLD?

Also, just curious: why do you like Nobody Special? Why

don't

you like Plum?

I'm pretty much in agreement with Faraday's town reads: Maruchan and hitogoroshi are close to confirmed, Andrius and to a lesser extent Feysal are also obvious (had some paranoia of Feysal for relying so much on set-up speculation until his explanation for why he wanted). Leaning town on Klazam because his posting feels very ingenuous, and feeling somewhat better about Llamarble.* I've skimmed all the Regfan-Magua bickering, but Faraday got a townish impression on Regfan from it. Likewise, I'll take Faraday's word that NS is probably town, because I have no clue how to read him. I haven't read Plum's wall yet, but Faraday said he got slight meta town tells from it.

We're also in agreement that Reck or Amrun would be good votes (although I have to admit that I haven't read the latter carefully enough, and am too tired to do so tonight). Baby Spice could hang, too, based on terrible reads and half-assed scumhunting (I know she posted lots of weak set-up speculation as scum early on in SAIII and DEFCON 2.0 so as to gain town cred), but I've never actually seen her as town, so no clue if this kind of play is alignment-neutral.

I know I'm leaving people out, but it's late.

*Llama's paranoia of the neighbours looks pretty genuine--except believe me, hito and Andrius are town. hito in particular I'd bet the game on at this point. (I mean, come on, all the "We should do these actions so we can read each other better" are dead giveaways. hito's not at all confident in his ability to be read as town when he's scum.) They are two players who are NOTORIOUS for being easy to read to anyone with extensive experience with them.

-Mina (duh)

[Lost Butterfly]

EBWOP: (had some paranoia of Feysal for relying so much on set-up speculation until his explanation for why he wanted

tclawren not to send in his move

)

[Lost Butterfly]

Also, here's a summarized version of the above unintelligible rambling wall:

Super Town:
Maruchan
hitogoroshi

Town:
Andrius
Feysal

Borderline Town (although there's probably one-two scum in this category):
Klazam
Llamarble
Regfan
Lady Lambdadelta
Nobody Special

Null:
Fate
Nautilius
Zajnet (obviously)

Scummy:
iamausername
tclawren
Reck
Amrun
Baby Spice

People whose posts Mina hasn't read:
Magua
Plum

[Nobody Special]

Words cannot describe how much I hate this post.

So, I hope I'm not asking too much here, but can you try to use some words to describe why you hate that post?

@LLD: In this post you said you'd comment on the War Room in your next post. Haven't seen that yet.

Claiming Chits and Actions BEFORE they happen only helps Scum. I don't think this is a good idea.

Have you changed your mind on this? (And you also mention it here.)

I see that Feysal answered LLD here and LLD acknowledged that answer (as well as switching Llamarble to town) here.

I note that in this post Llamarble doesn't answer LLD's question as to why claiming moves publicly prior to moving is scummy rather than null.

It's gut, mainly, but I think we might keep an eye on the interactions between LLD and Llamarble. Feels like scum dancing for our benefit to me.

Good things to do this round:
Help Maruchan hold position.
Help Klazam hold position.

I don't agree on these two. I have a reason for this, but I'd rather not explain it in public, maybe in the Secluded Villa if I get the chance to visit it. For now, suffice to say that if we don't use this kind of actions we might be able to get the mafia to slip up.

I ran across this. I had forgotten about it. It's odd, to me, that Feysal said he didn't want Maruchan held in place, and then Maru got moved unaccountably. Is this odd to anyone else?

Really we just need to open up the chair-switch door.
All other door control usages are kind of secondary.

I'm not sure this post is at all pro-town.

Llamarble is bitching about Klazaam wanting to move out of and back into the MW room. Any reason for this, Llamarble?


So, my top reads (it's like a spectrum, yo):

Town:
Maruchan
Klazaam
Plum

hito
LB
Feysal
Null:
tclawren



Llamarble?
LLD?
Fate
Reck
Scummy-ish

Vote: Reck

[Klazam]

NS- its Klazam. Could you explain why reck is your scumread? Personally, I find reck to be more townish.

[Lost Butterfly]

I don't know why I'm still awake. But Klazam and hito and Amrun and anyone else with a town read on Reck: show me the light, please? I can understand a

null

read on Reck. But I'm reading his ISO and I don't see a post that couldn't be faked by Reck-Scum. I'm open to being persuaded.

[Regfan]

The explanations for my strong town-reads on Maruchan, Klazam, Hitogorishi, Feysal, Nobody Special, Llamarble, Reck, Andrius and LLD are here. This took slightly longer than I anticipated but the rest of my reads are listed below. Unfortunately I won't be available much for the next two days (Friends 21st/Family Events) but I'm really hoping I come back to see a Magua-scum lynch or wagon.

@ LB -

I can't explain my town-read on Reck without referring to gut. I read the way he attacked the day as arrogant town rather than anything else.

Weak Town Reads

Fate:

Mostly gut and a degree of meta, happy enough to wait for him to provide more content though.

Lost Butterfly:

Agree with almost everything that Mina said so far with the exception of the Reck suspicion and I'm happy to trust Hito/Andrius's read on them later.

Null Reads

Plum:

Although she has provided some degree of content and reads something feels slightly off. I'm confident I can read her as the game goes on though.

Zajnet:

Lolwho.

Weak Scum Reads

Nautilus:

I have trouble reading Eli and I'm willing to wait for Nacho to post before I fully judge their slot but their 'Loldonothing' style this game is suspicious.

Amrum:

I'm having trouble explaining this and I really need to have another read through of her posts, will defer until tomorrow.

Baby Spice:

Terribad and nonsensical reads. Her strong belief that Magua is mafia yet no vote on him speaks volumes but I've seen her as terribad town too.

Scum Reads

Magua:

He's scum, there's no more to it. Reading through the wall argument back and forth with me and him should be more than enough proof to that.

Tclwren:

Interaction and the way he dealt with the LLD/Amrum situation reads scum + his move 'not being sent in'.

[Klazam]

I can't explain my town-read on Reck without referring to gut. I read the way he attacked the day as arrogant town rather than anything else.




(Joke)

In fact, Its more of how he posts throughout the game. I do not feel that scum would easily make these types of posts. It's mostly gut. Hence why i copy-pasted regfan's answer.

[Klazam]

Regfan- how did LB jump up from weak scumread to weak townread?

[Nobody Special]

Why Reck is scummy:

iso0: Lazy, anti-town
iso1: More lazy.
iso2: After being lazy two posts in a row, he wants to direct town. I don't

think

so.
iso3: More laziness? Yes, yes it is.
iso4: Oh, look! A protown post. (Barely.)
iso5: Doesn't like anyone else controlling town. But he wanted to do

just that

in iso2.
iso6/7: Arguing about the above control issue. Null.
iso10: Suddenly he's okay just sitting around doing nothing? Why the sudden and total shift away from earlier?
iso12: This post is mostly protown EXCEPT for the last point.
iso13: Calling yourself protown, isn't.
iso14-18: Arguing with Plum.
iso19: Admitting his earlier request was for teh lulz and not for the good of the town. This is not a protown thing to be doing. (I'll admit my bias against {and

extreme

dislike for} CAPSLAWK-style rage posts and players who engage in such. Therefore, I'm always rather skittish around Fate, Reck, et al.)
iso20: Telling me to stop.
iso21: Ad hom.
iso22: MOAR LAZINESS YAY
iso23: Finally! A protown post! One (or two, maybe) out of 23 does not a Townie make, sorry.

[Nobody Special]

Klazam -- sorry about the name. When I read your name, I just think "Shazaam!" and, well.

[Regfan]

Regfan- how did LB jump up from weak scumread to weak townread?

They moved from null to a weak town-read but Post #558 is almost the exact wavelength that I'm on right now and I'm happy enough to defer trying to read into them too much until I hear Hito and Andrius's thoughts on them when they enter the Villa.

With that I'm heading out. See you all in 2 days (I'll try and log on once tomorrow for 20 minutes give Amrums ISO another read through and see if I can update myself with the thread though).

[Llamarble]

*Llama's paranoia of the neighbours looks pretty genuine--except believe me, hito and Andrius are town. hito in particular I'd bet the game on at this point. (I mean, come on, all the "We should do these actions so we can read each other better" are dead giveaways. hito's not at all confident in his ability to be read as town when he's scum.) They are two players who are NOTORIOUS for being easy to read to anyone with extensive experience with them.
-Mina (duh)

I just went and looked through a bunch of Hito meta and I still don't get all the declarations of him being obvtown.
He isn't awful as scum and he hasn't said anything hard this game.
Just 'I haz planz let's Villa' and 'let's realtime villa I promise LB and I will read each other easily and confirm each other as town.'
Perhaps somebody who "isn't confident in his ability to be read as town when he's scum" might want to, you know, go to the place with 1/10 as many eyes all of which outside-game-<3 him and want him to be town?
Even if he does think less of his scumgame, that doesn't mean he's going to I MUST HIDE NONE SHALL SEE MY FACE.

I'm going to look at Reck some.

[Llamarble]

Reck just doesn't seem to have engaged fully yet. I liked the plum-poking, so overall I think he's a bit town.
Also he thinks Hito is obvtown too... I must just have missed the memo or something.

[Klazam]

#CHIT COUNTER:

Bolded: no chits used
Lowest to high-

Baby Spice: 1
Klazam: 2
Llama: 3
Nobody Special: 3
Nautilius: 3
Fate: 3
Magua: 3
Regfan: 3
Amrun:3
Hitogoroshi: 4
Feysal: 4
Lost Butterfly: 4
Lady Lambdadelta: 4
Andrius: 4

iamausername: 5
Maruchan: 5*
Plum: 5
Tclawren: 5*
xRECKONERx: 5
Zajnet:5

Tclaw- you MUST tell us whether you sent anything in and what it is.

Maru- If you did anything related to doors- Vote a player, can vote me, i dont care who, but communicate if you used a chit or not. IF you did not, post Unvote, and then we'll figure out what to do with your blue chit.

Iamausername,zajnet,Plum, Reck- You need to use your blue chits this round. I need a uninsured move from one of you guys, to the move checker room. Anybody else see more moves that need to be done? I understand that Zaj is v/la, but it'd be nice if he can use that blue chit- to make more players' chits accountable.

[Klazam]

I'll prolly wake up around 2-3ish, so lets see how many posts crop up between now and then.

[Llamarble]

Okay I'm too tired to continue.
I do still think we want Maruchan to get potioned.
He's like the universal townread of everyone and is a claimed VT.
We can't really do better than that.
And we can send somebody else to the door at the cost of maybe one round.
But honestly the way things are going we'll be ready for night before we're ready to lynch regardless.