Mini 1219 - Bedtime Stories Mafia - Game Over!

[Neruz]

Uh, i must have missed that, why is Beck confirmed town?

[hiphop]

I believe if Neruz wasn't confirmed already that does it.

[Neruz]

You've lost me.

[hiphop]

Beck is dead. Beck was an odd night vig. Sleuth also died. Therefore it is assumed that Beck shot Sleuth, and scum shot Beck. For Beck did not shoot himself, which would lead to scum knowing that Beck died. Unless, of course, there are game mechanics that just shouldn't be. Which, of course, would lead to you being confirmed town.

[Rainbowdash]

I still lean away from Thomith-scum just given how long VM planted himself on that wagon.

I have him as depry-town, but still more likely then not town.

Looking through VM again, EB is probably town given how much he challenged me on having EB in the EoH during the first day.

So (copying a bit from my night notes)

1) Neruz is town for that hammer
2) hiphop is town due to the VM pushing of him
3) Ellibereth is very likely town due to early VM wagon and reactions post hammer
4) Banshee is very likely town due to everything related to deselby wagon.

Then you add in EB, me, thats six ponies (EoH yay).

Rest just get bumped off in the approximate order of implosion, WV, llama, Thomith. Thats a game ponies!

[Neruz]

I feel so stupid right now. Excuse me while i go be ashamed in the corner.

[hiphop]

So Rainbow am I right?

[hiphop]

And how long did Voided plant himself on Thomith's wagon? It was less then a day.

[Llamarble]

Massclaim is better than 3 different softclaims + even night JK + oddnightvig, one of which is almost definitely scum by virtue of waytoomanynamedroles.
Lets do the claims and figure out which is scum and lynch them.
Enough stuff has been claimed for scum to play nightgame optimally.
Now lets claim enough stuff for town to play optimally too.

[Rainbowdash]

So Rainbow am I right?

Probably, but Neruz was my top town read last night either way. What just happened probably isn't a massive tell though, just slight.

I thought VM was on Thomith for a long time though. Maybe thats wrong in my notes.

[Llamarble]

It's weirdvoigt's turn to claim

I think it's some combo of him Implosion and Banshee.
Banshee seems like he may just be hurricane derpface and not scum, but I do need to read more.

[Evil Bullet]

Guys. I think Banshee is scum. I'll get back to you on this.

[Rainbowdash]

Guys. I think Banshee is scum. I'll get back to you on this.

Maybe, he falls behind quite a few ponies for me, think on a list he would be 5th/6th.

Deselby wagon was just off like a shot

Deselby - RainbowDash, implosion, VoidedMafia, Thomith, Sleuth

In about 20 posts.

I guess this actually means no more than one of: Banshee, implosion, Thomith. Maybe even zero. Would be surprised with Banshee-implosion partners after this one.

Looking again I really dislike Thomith-scum at this point, a few of his posts just seem really not in line with VM partner. Plus the VT softclaim, which I really see as townish.

Also I really don't think that Banshee-scum would think they really could take me down and it would attract all types of negative attention to them. Feels like town just trying to get a point across.

[Llamarble]

I suppose WV + Bullet may make sense.
I think there are too many claimed things for all of them to be town right now, but that's why I want massclaim.

[Thomith]

why did you react to my vote on Rainbowdash in that way, Thomith?

It seemed like you found them both equally scummy and i wanted to know why you chose the person you did, yes you could only vote for one of them but i wanted to know the reasons that you chose the one you chose.

Now hiphop claimed PR we could try something, but i don't know if it will benifit town or not, it will depend on his actual role.

but does absolutely nothing about it.

So putting something out there is scummy? You normaly vote for someone who slips under the radar every time do you?
I also switched after banshee made the post you linked to because i felt he had a point so i decided to act on my gut and oh look, it worked.

[Banshee]

@Rainbow:

If EB is town, which is not certain but seems likely, and if you lynch scum today, which again is not certain and may be less likely given the level of interest people are showing in this game overall, then you still will not guarantee three forced scum lynches.

If your scenario plays out they will kill EB if he is town. Possibly not tonight, but sooner or later. In any case, that situation won't last through two confirms, much less three, unless you're arguing we'll lynch scum today and then dawdle around letting scum kill us until we're in LYLO. Is that your contention?

I'm still waiting for EB to explain how I am scum. Llamarble, you need to put up or shut up too. What's your case on me? That my slot was the go-to wagon when people were flying off the first VoidedMafia wagon? That I was the first one Rainbowdash led the town to in that situation?

I'm looking over Llamarble's contributions in ISO and in context, so I'll have something on that later today. I ought to look at WeirdVoigts too, I don't feel I have a clear read on that slot either.

[Banshee]

I AM HERE AND I AM TOWN.
READ COMING THIS EVENING.
TOTALLY-SKIMMED-SCUMREAD: VOIDEDMAFIA

Yeah, I'd have liked to hear a claim. Also actually catch up.
I read VM's ISO and it wasn't obv either way on first pass.
Some scummy stuff, but long in the way that scum often don't talk that much.
Ah Neruz is clearly scum. So there's that.

These two posts are about twenty-four hours apart. Which is it? Was VM obvious on first pass, or was he not?

Sure, maybe you are town then. Bullet's scum though. That hammer was atrocious. Bullet and Beck.
And scum says LOOK CLOSELY AT X WIFOMWIFOMWIFOM all the time anyway.

Yeah, he's pretty much confirmed scum right now.
Town just don't hammer townreads FOR NO GOOD REASON.

Oh I guess I did miscount.
Bleh.
I still have a long ways to go before any kind of read I'm confident in.
Except EB cause he claimed scum yaddiyaddi.

Where I'm at currently (and rather tentatively):
Town:
Meeeee

Townish:
Neruz
Thomith
Elli
RD

Scummy:
Beck
Voided
EB


WV could be scum. I'll get there.

What made EB town for you between yesterday and today?

Was it the fact he survived overnight despite his claim?
How did that work, exactly?

[Thomith]

dawdle around letting scum kill us until we're in LYLO. Is that your contention?

Where did you get that from?

Was it the fact he survived overnight despite his claim?

I am sure someone has pointed this out already but last night EB was not a threat to scum as he had no action to perform, why would scum kill someone who posed no threat to them?

[Neruz]

I pointed it out, how no-one noticed before me i don't know. Some of the people who posted before i did are supposidly intelligent and good at mafia, so how they missed that particular tidbit escapes me.

Even if EB fails to die tonight it wouldn't be that scummy, because to be perfectly honest even night jailkeeper is not a particulary potent role at all and there's a reasonable amount of suspicion floating around him that it would not be a bad idea for scum to leave him around as a red herring.

[Banshee]

dawdle around letting scum kill us until we're in LYLO. Is that your contention?

Where did you get that from?

Was it the fact he survived overnight despite his claim?

I am sure someone has pointed this out already but last night EB was not a threat to scum as he had no action to perform, why would scum kill someone who posed no threat to them?

In order to get three confirmed townies out of a town-EB investigative streak we have to wait through six nights. If that wouldn't put us at LYLO, we'd be pretty darn close. This supposes of course that EB is town, RBD is town, the scum don't kill EB during this supposed streak and we lynch scum today. A pretty unlikely line of suppositions.

EB would be a threat to scum tonight and it would be too late to kill him tonight. Therefore if they believed he would be a threat to them they would have had to kill him last night rather than wait until tonight when he could conceivably block the nightkill. This assumes that EB is town, of course.

I want an answer from you, Thomith, about whether you believe my logic in this post is sound or, if not, how it is incorrect.

[Neruz]

...

Why

would it be too late to kill him tonight?

[Banshee]

I'm assuming that... okay, for the sake of argument, Neruz, if you think I'm scum and you're a jailkeeper, and you jailkeep me, I can't kill you or anyone else, can I?

Kills are not resolved before roleblocks, are they?

[Thomith]

In order to get three confirmed townies out of a town-EB investigative streak we have to wait through six nights.

Rainbow said this? i must have missed it, if she did then this is the worst plan ever thought up, "lets let the scum kill us untill we get 3 clears from a power that cant be used every night"

as Neruz said EB most likely has a small chance of blocking the kill, they could have kept him alive for this small chance as they saw bigger threats.

[Neruz]

I'm assuming that... okay, for the sake of argument, Neruz, if you think I'm scum and you're a jailkeeper, and you jailkeep me, I can't kill you or anyone else, can I?

Kills are not resolved before roleblocks, are they?

Indeed, but the odds that i would successfully jailkeep the scum who is killing are extremely low, and i have no way whatsoever of knowing if the kill was stopped because i roleblocked you or because i protected you.

All in all, not really a huge threat at all, and given the situation EB is in atm as scum i would absolutely be willing to risk it for now at least.

[Banshee]

@Neruz: As scum, what is the advantage of passing up killing two town power roles in order to aim at an unidentified third in the town pool?

I can see three reasons personally, which I will relate:

1. The scum intended to push the lynch of one of the two power roles today and when that role flipped town to lynch the other by process of elimination. I'm the only one pushing either lynch and I'm not scum, and no one is jumping on that bandwagon with me, so that's not the reason behind it.

2. The WIFOM EB brought up that made Llamarble so certain he was scum yesterday and miraculously healed him to Not-scum today. They did it because they didn't regard either RBD or EB as a threat. This pretty much requires that they have a day role-cop on the scum side who investigated RBD and discovered she wasn't any threat at all. This one is mildly possible.

3. The scum believe RBD and EB are both so far off the track that it made more sense to go after Beck who was likely to nail one or more of them to the wall, something they couldn't risk after VM was lost.

There are the reasons against what I've argued. There may be others, but these are the main reasons against my points.