Double Vote Mafia -Mini 1239- Over

[killerjester]

FASTEST REPLACEMENT EVAR!

/confirm

[killerjester]

How reliable is the confirmation scumtell nowadays? I'm going to vote for hiphop and protoplasm.

[killerjester]

Hey, at least I have a good reason for my RVS. You don't.

[killerjester]

Completely.

[killerjester]

I was born with an iron gut. It's quite strong.

[killerjester]

Well my reason is you two are the last to confirm. I'm sure about it because of my gut.

[killerjester]

You two being last to confirm.

[killerjester]

I am not biased as to where you live. And how is making decisions for myself a bad thing? I've decided that the confirmation scumtell isn't terribly reliable in catching scum. However, it is quite reliable in pretending it catches scum to spark discussion in RVS, which is what I'm using it for.

[killerjester]

[killerjester]

Never thought I'd have so much use for these images.

[killerjester]

Well the Mod will probably reset any votes we make pre-start.

Anyone wanna setup RQS while we wait?

[killerjester]

Oh

you

!

I'm not scum. I have no buddies.

[killerjester]

VOTE: hiphop
VOTE: protoplasm

@nintendo, not that I'm particularly upset, but what happened to your ad hom argument?

[killerjester]

@Mod, can we change votes one at a time, as long as we're voting for two separate people?

[killerjester]

@nintendo, not that I'm particularly upset, but what happened to your ad hom argument?

Unvote: killerjester
Vote: Hiraki

nintendoaddict is scum for having a legitimate reason to vote killerjester pre-confirmation and then dropping it to RVS.

Obv. either killerjester is scum and this was done as light bussing before the votes counted: or killerjester was mislynch material and nintendoaddict forgot to follow through.
Despite the fact I dislike Hiraki stating his intent to lurk, I actually feel the scenario with kjscum is more likely, esp. given hiphop's points against him.

Unvote: Hiraki;
Vote: killerjester

@mod: Just had a thought. You say we have to cast both votes at the same time, but if we're unvoting one person to vote another, do we also need to re-vote the person we wish to remain voting? So in the above example, do I also need to re-vote nintendoaddict?

I don't like how you unvote for nintendo's ad hom argument in the first post and then revote me for the same reason in the second post. What changed your opinion here? The only two things between your posts are hiphop and Whiskers voting me as well.

UNVOTE: hiphop
VOTE: AurorusVox

[killerjester]

Was that a question to me or AV?

[killerjester]

@KJ: At first I thought you bringing attention to nintendoaddict's dropping of his ad hom argument was pro-town, and I despised Hiraki asking to lurk, so that motivated the change from you to him. Then I thought about it some more and figured it made more sense for nintendoscum to vote you before confirmations but not afterwards if you were his scumbuddy rather than if you were town and he was scum. It makes no sense if he's town, hence why my vote has remained there permanentely.

Now before you ask "Why did you unvote me?" in regards to the above, it's because I have already found the three-strong scumteam: killerjester, whiskers, nintendoaddict. I dislike FoSes so where I have two votes, I am happy to use my second one to indicate that I find a particular vote incredibly scummy. The most recent scummy post is Whisker's, but I'm still open to your lynch today.

Have at it.

Your logic made sense for unvoting me, and it seemed consistent with what you quoted in the same post. But here's what I have an issue with..

Obv. either killerjester is scum and this was done as light bussing before the votes counted: or killerjester was mislynch material and nintendoaddict forgot to follow through.
Despite the fact I dislike Hiraki stating his intent to lurk, I actually feel the scenario with kjscum is more likely, esp. given hiphop's points against him.

This post felt incredibly opportunistic after the hiphop and Whiskers votes on me. I felt like you were trying to score townpoints with me with the unvote, but then noticing I'm viable mislynch material again after hiphop and Whiskers get my bandwagon started. The way you did it was so unnatural and stuck out like a sore thumb.

Also, AV is acting scummy, why?

Why aren't you voting me then?

Unvote; killerjester
Vote: Whiskers

This, however, is a very good point. I think Whiskers is a bit reluctant to bus you.

UNVOTE: protoplasm
VOTE: Whiskers

[killerjester]

Voting Hiraki isn't the problem.

You flipflop from "KJ's scum" to "Oh look, something pro-town. This would be a good point to back off" and then back to "KJ scum"

I think your further-reflecting argument is crap.

[killerjester]

How the hell should I know?

- Maybe he forgot
- Maybe his opinion changed
- Maybe he felt playing patty cake with Hiraki was more worth it
- Maybe he actually

doesn't

think I'm worth the time
- Maybe he didn't want my attention on him

I've rationalized it all out but only that last one would be particularly indicative that he's scum. I'm null-scum on him at the moment so it's definitely in the realm of possible, but you are wayyyyy more scummy than he is with that opportunistic vote.

[killerjester]

Oh lord we're only on page two and there's ad hom...

vote killerjester

^ OH HEY! A VOTE! I mean SURE it didn't count since it was pregame but at least he VOTED me when he thought I was scummy.

Nice to see you have no good reason for your vote, Christine.

And it was a question for AV; "Why are you acting scummy?"

Welcome, protoplasm. Are you scum?

^ No vote!

[killerjester]

Kj: Yes, and people just HAVE to vote when they suspect someone, right, right. You just sit alone in that opinion corner of yours, 'kay?

Righto. Who are you voting?

[killerjester]

lurklurklurk

Hi, make yourself useful.

Who are the 3 scum?

[killerjester]

Why? Town should lynch the people they find scummy. Therefore, he is not scum.

Yeaaaahh I'm going to go ahead and call this a scumslip.

Confirm vote

[killerjester]

He just called nintendo not scum.

[killerjester]

Why do you get that impression?

[killerjester]

I find hiphop being overly defensive as slightly scummy. I RVS'd him for the confirmation tell and to see if he would OMGUS me like he stated. So at least he's being consistent in that aspect.
@Alnara, who are your heads? And can you indicate which head makes each post? Those are my main concerns when playing with hydras.

[killerjester]

So that is a good reason, compared to mine, where you are using a reason that has nothing to do with the game, and therefore are being bias as to where I live? Which only means you are scum, not really scum hunting, and looking for an easy way out. Got it.

You assumed my vote had nothing to do with the game. That was the only part that seemed forced though.

What's your opinion on my bits?

[killerjester]

Did it? Clearly not.

And what do you mean your bits?

Many moderators allow scumteams to talk during confirmations. Theoretically scum are delaying confirming in order to buy more pre-game talking time. I haven't started in a game where confirming was done in thread, and wanted a chance to use it. I don't think it's reliable to catch scum. At very least it's no worse than random. I'm doubting it's any better than random, though. As we can see, you probably confirmed late because of the timezone difference and protoplasm flaked pre-game so the tell isn't very indicative of either of your alignments.

By bits, I mean my dick. I mean this

Then look at it from killerjester. Scum tend to weaken just a little bit under pressure, and killerjester's attitude was basically "come at me bro." He did not seem fazed at all by the scum accusation, which tells me he's either good scum being attacked by a scummy-looking townie, one scum being lightly bussed by another (Vox's theory, I believe), or just a townie. I find the third most likely. Either way, if killerjester is scum, hiphop is also likely to be scum.

What are your thoughts on it?

[killerjester]

So how does that have anything with me being over defensive?

"That has nothing to do with the game. You're so biased. Etc..."

And yup, pretty much. Also the above is over-defensive, way more than anything you can conceive me doing in the beginning of the game.

Thanks for the help!

On the other hand, KJ using a shitty tell that he himself didn't believe in at the start of the game to appear to be "scumhunting" and not randomly voting during RVS is bull. Hence, he's scum.

I've decided that the confirmation scumtell isn't terribly reliable in catching scum.

Oh, you're funny. Did you miss me posting this or did you just ignore it?

NS: I think you've made your point. Whiskers didn't realize that protoplasm flaked, and Voided was the replacement. In addition to being scummy, I don't think it's likely that Voided is Whiskers's scumpartner. Do you agree?

[killerjester]

I wasn't using it as scumhunting, I went over this. I wanted a chance to try it out as RVS because this is my first game that I've been able to. Check my game history, I've replaced into most of my games (this one included, actually).

It was directed at Whiskers, by the way. Whiskers is more scummy for selectively reading among other things.

[killerjester]

AVox train of thought
Premise 1: KJ didn't believe a tell was reliable for scumhunting
Premise 2: KJ was scumhunting with it
Conclusion: Contradiction, KJ is scum!

So if you don't think I was scumhunting with it, why do you agree with him that I'm scum?

[killerjester]

Except there isn't any point where I sincerely believe the tell is significantly more reliable than RVS. How did you get the impression I was using it as a means of being better than the randomness of RVS?

[killerjester]

I thought it would be a fun RVS vote.

[killerjester]

@Mairsil, what is your stance on the players you've formed opinions on so far.

[killerjester]

my opinions have already been stated, but i am willing to bet at least one of them is scum. not sure who tho. that comes with me learning ya'lls playstyles first.

Well you've got four other players in the pool, and given that this is a 12p game I'd say it's very likely one of them is scum, if not more.

I like AVox's case. I feel point (2) is the strongest point in that there is a strong contradiction between what Voided said, "Maybe AVox wasn't being opportunistic, the timing could've been bad," and what he does, trying to push the idea of scum-AVox. I can hardly see a town player pulling this kind of move on anyone. This probably means I was wrong about AVox, as I think it's unlikely scum-Void would bus AVox in such a backfiring manner.

UNVOTE: AurorusVox
VOTE: Voidedmafia

[killerjester]

I feel the double hammer is more practical in lylo to be quite honest.

I wouldn't mind having nintendo as the second lynch along with myself. His response tells me that at least one of Whiskers or Voided is a scumbuddy ("Oh noes just lynch AV not one of THEM we can't actually do it anyway /distraction tactics!")

Can you explain this a little more? For one, why are you comfortable with lynching yourself? Next, I don't quite see how that makes a scumbuddy connection, can you elaborate?

[killerjester]

@Voided, what do you think of Whiskers?

[killerjester]

@Mod: Can you please clarify the double-hammer rules?

My understanding is the same as Whiskers's, in that the first time we double hammer two people are lynched, and every time thereafter only one person is.

[killerjester]

Hold the fuckin' phone. My picture was an ad hom? What are you smoking?

This whole game I thought you were referring to this post as an ad hom.

I sincerely reject the premise that the picture was an ad hom.

[killerjester]

Is his definition of ad hom wrong then?

Yes

[killerjester]

Ad hom is short for ad hominem. It's latin.

Friend, do you honestly find no one else besides AVox to be even slightly scummy?

[killerjester]

Maybe it's reverse psychology, but AVox seems way too eager to lynch himself when there's a very strong possibility that it will happen - with the double hammer. I'm really doubting that scum would support the 1 for 1 idea in this situation, and it definitely seems to come from a town perspective.

UNVOTE: Voided
VOTE: nintendoaddict

[killerjester]

I do agree scum would try to push for a 1 for 1 if he was already going down. But I do not see AVox as scum-going-down at the moment. Most of his suspicions have been pretty warranted, and I only saw a little bit of opportunistic stuff early game. I also think AVox is more likely to be town from how Voided tried to get him lynched in a scummier-than-ever way. On top of that, Voided's recent posts have been, "Yup, gonna agree with what killer says!" There's a good chance he's scum, and scum don't try the kind of stuff Voided tried if AVox is a scum-partner.

Shoo fly, don't buddy me.

UNVOTE: Whiskers
VOTE: Voided

[killerjester]

Christine, there's no way you think they're scum together.

[killerjester]

@Void, in #165 you talk about how it's possible AVox fell victim to bad timing, rather than truly voting me out of opportunism. You're providing rationale for an implied town perspective. In the same post you accuse AVox of being scummy and vote him.

You're scummier-than-ever for the contraction in agenda within a single post. I believe AVox to be town simply because he was the target of your attack - I think scum would be less wishy washy when bussing their own partner.

[killerjester]

We need prod/replacements on hiphop, Alnara, and malpascp.

I'm very comfortable with my current votes and I think input from those 3 slots can get this game out of it's current lull.

Also @Hiraki, why is your vote best-placed on malpascp? And do you know who the scumteam is yet?

[killerjester]

Where the hell did you sneak in that townread on me, Rainbowdash? I hope you're not trying something similair to the VM-buddying, cos I got pretty good townvibes from you until reading #461.

Top vote on nintendo though.

[killerjester]

Nintendo, I explicitly say that if your lynch requires me to go down too, I'd be happy to oblige.
The fact that we haven't had a rush of people to push a double lynch tells me something very important (Whiskers, you'll want to pick your ears up for this too)

It tells me that we're

not both town

.

If we were both town, you can DAMN SURE GUARANTEE that scum would have subtly pushed support for a double mislynch. But the support hasn't been there. Because this isn't TvT.

Actually, Voided fits the description of pushing both lynches, albeit individually and less-so for a double-lynch.

[killerjester]

Actually Rule #4 implies there is initially

no deadline

until the Mod sees a need for one.

[killerjester]

Oh, I thought you didn't know..

Sorry.

[killerjester]

So Robotnick. About those reads. Would you care to know that I'm actually interested in hearing about them?

[killerjester]

Hiraki, who's nintendo's buddy?

[killerjester]

if i had to call a scum team it would be Dash for her interactions with alara yesterday

What do you mean by this?

I don't see how AV is in this "all-mighty town group"(intense exaggeration required)

so

Vote: AV

What's not to get? AV wanted us to

double hammer

him and nintendo yesterday. There was a very likely chance of that happening in my opinion.

[killerjester]

Either of these two fine fellows.

VOTE: Hiraki
VOTE: VM

Hiraki for still suggesting AV could be scum. There's no way AV scum would be like, "Hey, since I'm getting lynched can we at least double hammer nintendo [also scum] with me?"
VM mainly for his interactions with AV yesterday. He was still plenty scummy and I hope we're not all forgetting about him now.

[killerjester]

I'm terrible at making cases

- Gave a town perspective for one of AVox's early game actions in his catch-up posts, only to turn around and push the notion of AVox-scum
- Shamelessly buddies me in #308/#309 and again in #331/#332

He probably got on the nintendo wagon because he saw fellow scum going down and decided it would be worth the few towncreds to bus his partner.

[killerjester]

Hiraki reads as scum mainly for his attacks on AVox. If we're planning a double-lynch I want some time to read up on FM, but it looks like we're waiting on him anyway. At the moment I'd still prefer a Hiraki/VM double lynch.

[killerjester]

NS has nothing to do with this. If anyone, I'd blame Voided for putting Hiraki at L-1 but not FM. Unless Hiraki flips scum, I want Voided lynched tomorrow.

[killerjester]

weird but anywho...i have a question how is it that dash wasnt off'd by scum? one of the strongest players still alive. it doesnt make sense to me. if she was town it would have been in scum best interest to NK her, but no instead AV was killed. this doesnt sit well with me at all.

It's possible that Rainbowdash is scum or is at least not correctly hunting the scum (which is slightly WIFOM, but whatever...) Either way it's at least worthwhile looking into the players back on nintendo's wagon.

I need some time, and don't really want to see a lynch rushed.

[killerjester]

I'm not going to vote yet, because I don't want to mess up everyone's wagon-balancing act.

To put this simply, I don't want to lynch FM with Christine, or before Christine at all. He hasn't seemed all that scummy to me. And with how comfortable Christine is with this double-lynch today, I'd say it's quite likely they aren't the scumteam. So I'd much rather lynch Christine

first

to see if she flips scum (which would almost convincingly point to town-FM). However, now that I've said this my logic will only work once, and we can't clear anyone else with much likelihood from a scum-Christine flip.

But as far as other Christine/X lynches go for today... Whiskers would be a good candidate, VM would also be a great lynch.

[killerjester]

killerjester, we're lynching Frind Maresil because I think h's scum and there's enough support that we can lynch her. I've had my eye on her since Day 1.
e're lynching Crhistine becauseshe was stoopid and quickhammered-- sorry, because she was negligent and quickhammered. If you think that Christie is scum, but not Friend, by all means, make a case. I have been known to be convincable. But I think that at least one of them will flip scum.

Unless you're expecting both to flip scum, I'd prefer we lynch one of Christine/FM before we think about lynching the other. The two are not an ideal pair for our double-lynch, because if one flips scum the other is pretty much town. If you're only expecting one of the two to flip scum, it's much better to lynch one today along with another scumread of yours while putting the other on hold. Especially since we're not at MyLo/LyLo, I don't think it's too ambitious to abandon the "Exactly one of these two is likely scum!" and shoot for lynching both scum today.

But to make it official, do you think it's likely that scum-Christine would advocate the double lynch of herself and partner-FM? If not, and following the above line of thought, what would be your ideal double lynch today?

[killerjester]

What changed your opinion of her?

[killerjester]

Vote: Friend
Vote: Christine

That's L-1 for both.

You seemed comfortable with lynching her here

[killerjester]

Yeah, I'm asking what changed your mind from sheeping her lynch to taking a stance against it. A look through her iso? A particular post? Simply time, perhaps?

[killerjester]

Where is FM hiding, by the way?

[killerjester]

Can we have FM replaced?

[killerjester]

Exceeeepptt I'm not scum. Maybe I just want a better read on the slot before it's lynched. This whole lurker game is throwing my reads off a bit, but now that Rainbowdash requested replacement it definitely feels like scum are controlling the game. Sooo if I had to guess, FM is probably town as he's the counter-wagon to the Christine wagon that just died out.

VOTE: Christine - Just explained
VOTE: Voided - Still a scumread of mine

[killerjester]

I'm town because my role PM says so.

Why do you want FM lynched before we find a replacement?

[killerjester]

Again, I'm not scum because I'm town. Because my role PM says so. It's not a difficult concept.

I'm lynching Christine because of the hammer and because I think scum are going under the radar.

What's the case on FM? I'm not quite sure what you're referring to when you ask if I agree with it.

[killerjester]

She still voted for both FM and Hiraki when she hammered. It just so happens that Hiraki was L-1 and FM wasn't. So she doesn't get townpoints for that.

Do you disagree?

[killerjester]

Ehh alright.

Why did you steer Christine towards the FM/NS double-lynch? I don't really see where they work out as far as scumteams go.

[killerjester]

Christine and VM, same question I gave to Whiskers. Do you see FM/NS as a scumteam or just one of them being scum for sure but you don't know which?

[killerjester]

A mislynch today puts us in MyLo, and we lose the double-votes when that happens. By extension, we can't double lynch if we don't have double votes.

[killerjester]

Prodget. I prefer that FM/NS not be our double-lynch because I don't see them as a probable scumteam. If you guys are serious about lynching FM, who else would you consider?

[killerjester]

What's the goal then? To lynch a scum and a town with our double lynch? While the 1 for 1 is favorable for the town, I'd say is also only par for the course.

There's no reason why we can't try to lynch both scum today. The idea being that if we don't hit both, we'll probably lynch at least one scum.

So it's like what you're trying to do. But better.

[killerjester]

Well let's get your ideas out on the table before we lynch anyone.

If FM is scum, who makes sense as his partner?
If NS is scum, who makes sense as his partner?

[killerjester]

You literally just said lynching one scum today would make finding the partner easier tomorrow. How can you have no idea?

[killerjester]

Whiskers, 898 was directed at you.

[killerjester]

Christine and FM are both L-2

And if you're using math, you have a 52.4% chance to hit at least one scum using a random double-lynch. Take it how you will, but I know at the very least my votes are not random in the slightest.

[killerjester]

Right now.

I'm not going to lynch myself, so the odds of lynch town with BOTH votes is (5/7)*(4/6). That comes out to 47.6%, which means the opposite (not lynching town with both votes) is 100.0 - 47.6.

52.4% to hit

at least

one scum. The odds of lynching either one scum or two scum are all included in that number.

[killerjester]

Christine and VM.

[killerjester]

Yeah I can see them as a scumteam.

[killerjester]

@VM, mostly, you're just independently scummy. I haven't seen anything that strongly suggests you two aren't a team, either.

[killerjester]

KJ: why am I, again? I know you suspected me earlier, but I'd think you'd have something more to show for it now.

PoE, slightly. In addition to the earlier stuff

[killerjester]

Why did you feel this method of PoE towntell was more effective than reading the players?

[killerjester]

Top two, ideally.

[killerjester]

@Whiskers, it's because FM is town.

[killerjester]

KJ, will you lynch Christine? I'm kind of on-off about understanding/remembering where this game is and what stances you all have.

Yea, and my ideal double-lynch is VM/Christine. If you were thinking about VM/X or Christine/X though please share your thoughts.

[killerjester]

Well I PoE'd FM, Whiskers, and bvoigt into my prob-town list. FM is prob-town because of how his wagon grew to counter Christine's in the early play today, as well as how little resistance there was (and still is) to his lynch. There are also too many pairings that don't make sense at all. Whiskers is prob-town for legitimately prying at the players and draw them into a more active game. I think the scum would be content to let the game die off into a lurker mode. Bvoigt is prob-town mostly from Rainbowdash's play.

I'd say our two scum are in VM, Christine, Robotnick, and NS. I made a brief case against VM back in #633. The other 3 picks definitely show that scum are going under the radar, and I picked Christine as my second lynch mostly because of the hammer yesterday.

[killerjester]

It's been chock full of AtE's and "Let's lynch FM" posts

[killerjester]

That's a terrible argument. NS/FM doesn't make sense now.

The only person I can see paired with FM is Robotnick. However, with the way scum have been controlling the lurker game it's much more likely that FM isn't scum. I'm not going to hammer him now or ever. If you're looking for me to double hammer, suggest another two players.

[killerjester]

Well, now that I'm confident about the town voting bloc of Whiskers, FM, and bvoigt that's really all we need to lynch the 2 remaining scum.

We have NS, Robotnick, Christine, VM, and enough rope to lynch all of them. I'm comfortable with any double lynch of these players, although I do think Christine and VM portray the scummier characteristics of the group. Even if we double-mislynch today, we're guaranteed to hit the scum with the following 2 lynches.

[killerjester]

Ladies and gents, Exhibit B

[killerjester]

Wow. Now Christine's just flailing.

[killerjester]

Feel free to elaborate

[killerjester]

@Whiskers, it felt like flailing when she OMGUS'd both NS and myself for voting her, when just recently on page 40 NS worked with bvoigt to put FM and Robotnick at L-1. Now that she's close to being lynched it feels like she just grasping for straws to make scum connections with FM, who isn't scum.

@Robotnick, which parts were difficult to understand? I thought it was pretty straightforward. I can't see a player who would reasonably be a partner with FM. This suggests that FM has no partners, and isn't scum.

[killerjester]

UNVOTE: VM
VOTE: Robotnick

I'm not ready for anyone to hammer though. I still want Robotnick to elaborate on why he agrees with Christine.

[killerjester]

What criteria do you personally use when you decide that someone is not scum with another person?

Well, generally my townreads get benefit of the doubt, and I don't see them as scum with anyone. This removed Whiskers and bvoigt from the pool of FM/X. Christine I eliminated because she seemed a little too comfortable with a Christine/FM double-lynch (I used this same criteria with AVox and nintendo, and cleared AVox when nintendo flipped scum). NS I eliminated from favoring an FM lynch over Christine lynch one too many times. His play on page 40/early 41 is a good example of this, when he had the opportunity to control the direction of the wagon and chose to lynch FM.

So it's either FM is scum and his partner is either Robotnick or VM, or FM isn't scum. The latter seemed a more likely possibility.

@Whiskers, if there was something you wanted me to answer, I missed it.

[killerjester]

So wait. You openly admit, and indeed act upon, your belief that VM is mafia, yes? And yet the possibility that VM and FM are scum together is a less likely possibility than FM being mafia?

Yes. Was that not evident? I think VM's partner is in the Christine, Robotnick, or NS group.

[killerjester]

I would. Christine seemed really genuine about double-lynching her and FM earlier, and now that we

aren't

lynching FM she seems to be kicking into survival mode.

Call me crazy, but I think a Christine/FM team would have the complete opposite display.

[killerjester]

What made Whiskers seem more-scum?

[killerjester]

Really? =/ This kind of sucks. I realize FM has been less than pro-active, but FM has no strong choices for scumbuddies. That's how I came to the opinion that he's probably town.

Is the entire case on me the association with FM, someone who hasn't even flipped?