Mini 1219 - Bedtime Stories Mafia - Game Over!

[Neruz]

Oh right yeah i see what you mean, i was just trying to work out how you had 2 clears if EB was dead, but Banshee would then be clear due to being blocked.

[implosion]

@Banshee

:

please provide me with a concise, but detailed post to convince me that thomith is scum. Not necessarily a case; please try to be as convincing as you can. Give me the best evidence there is.

@Neruz, Ellibereth and Thomith

:

please provide me with a case on whoever your current top suspect is.

[Evil Bullet]

Ummm...
If Scum killed me last night it would be 1 clear 4 unclear.

[implosion]

Ummm...
If Scum killed me last night it would be 1 clear 4 unclear.

Banshee would be cleared by virtue of having been blocked with (presumably) one scum left.
I would be clear by virtue of the fact that i am clear.
2 clears.

[Evil Bullet]

Ummm...
If Scum killed me last night it would be 1 clear 4 unclear.

Banshee would be cleared by virtue of having been blocked with (presumably) one scum left.
I would be clear by virtue of the fact that i am clear.
2 clears.

Of course. My bad. Well. Still, we're not not lynching Banshee today.

[Thomith]

implosion was unprotected so scum could have killed him for a 100% clear dead, so yes they had a good reason to kill.

Right now i really don't know, i think it is banshee which can be seen in the arguement we had i think yesturday but my gut is saying scum nokilled and it is Neruz, don't ask me why neruz but i have a bad gut feeling about him.

[Neruz]

implosion was unprotected so scum could have killed him for a 100% clear dead, so yes they had a good reason to kill.

Would have just cleared banshee though. Given Implosions pathetic input to the game so far, having him clear isn't a big deal, i'd take a clear implosion over a clear banshee any day of the week.

[Thomith]

true, but my point was if they killed EB they would have 2 100% clears but if they killed imp they would have 1 probclear and 1 100% clear.

[Neruz]

Which is why it is not unreasonable to assume that scum nokilled.

[Thomith]

so you're saying we should lynch banshee?

[Neruz]

No, i don't know where you got that from. If i had to choose someone to lynch i'd probably pick you over anyone else.

[Thomith]

1) misread the post thought you said it is unreasonable to assume scum nokilled/

2) why?

[Banshee]

Okay. First up, Implosion is right. If Thomith is scum given 117, then the scum team deserve to win. I could put up an entire list of scummy things Thomith has done (and have) but I don't suppose I believe it. However, my primary reasoning for not thinking Thomith is scum now is the patience that the scum team is showing. Thomith's play has not been the kind of patient and thoughtful that would have no-killed on both jailkeeping nights. It takes a special kind of acting proficiency to be the patient, calculating no-kill mastermind AND the bumbling, too-scummy-to-be-scum character Thomith has been in this game. I'm going to recant and say I was probably wrong here.

My town list right now is this:

• Implosion - cleared
  EB - cleared because of balance issues
  Thomith - cleared because of the no-kill
  

Of course I know my own alignment so I'm on the cleared list for myself. But I absolutely SHOULD NOT BE for ANYONE else. I think you should lynch me anyway because the choice then would be between Elli and Neruz and i think you can kill them before they can kill you. Leaving me alive just results in WIFOM in end game (much like I'm experiencing with Thomith) and it's not going to help town.

Of course EB will be killed tonight assuming he's town; if not, then he's scum for sure. The scum can't afford the chance of being jailkept in end game, I think. Meh, there won't be any way to know before tomorrow anyway.

For ME, right now, the scum is between Ellibereth and Neruz. I made a case earlier on Neruz here and given the recent flips I was looking at it again. The problem is that Ellibereth has not posted enough to get any kind of read. I was pretty sure the fit she threw after VoidedMafia had been lynched but before he had flipped was a virtual guarantee she was town though. It didn't have the same fake feel as Neruz's "Why is Beck confirmed town?", which, to me, seems like a scum gambit. A pretty good one too, only spoiled by the later asking for credit.

I think you should lynch me, though. If I were in your place I would do it. I know I'm not scum but I also know leaving me alive right now leads to WIFOM in end game and that SUCKS. I have been horrid at scumhunting this game. I spotted VoidedMafia but that's it, I haven't been right once since, so you're not losing a great asset anyway.

Right now we have this:

• Implosion
  EB
  Thomith
  Neruz
  Ellibereth
  Banshee

If you lynch me then you have:

• Implosion
  EB
  Thomith
  Neruz
  Ellibereth

EB dies tonight (he has to, if they're smart and he's not scum)

Now you have:

• Implosion
  Thomith
  Neruz
  Ellibereth

You have to no lynch here. Implosion dies here, and... crap.

• Thomith (likely town)
  chooses between Neruz and Ellibereth.
  

Okay. I don't know how you avoid that last thing. By no-lynching today, maybe, but seems like a really bad idea to me.

I can't prove my alignment so I don't see how it's helpful for me to go to end game (and I certainly will if I'm not lynched today) and I surely don't see how you don't end up with Thomith making this choice. Sorry, I'll think about this more. But I don't have a good way to avoid that last scenario.

If I could lynch one person right now, it would be Neruz. I'm not sure I'm right though. I'll make a case on him if you want, Implosion. Sorry not to be more help.

[Neruz]

Honestly i really don't think Thomith is scum, the problem is that wv was the last strong read i had. I'm drawing a huge blank on both Elli and Banshee and i'm pretty sure that EB is town based on role. I can point to a whole list of scummy things Thomith has done in this game, but he looks

way

more like a VI than scum. If he is scum then that is seriously the best act i have ever freaking seen.

[Banshee]

No lynch does not help us.

Right now we have this:

• Implosion
  EB
  Thomith
  Neruz
  Ellibereth
  Banshee
  

If we no-lynch, we have:

• Implosion
  EB
  Thomith
  Neruz
  Ellibereth
  Banshee

EB dies tonight (he has to, if they're smart)

Now you have:

• Implosion
  Thomith
  Neruz
  Ellibereth
  Banshee
  

We lynch Neruz here (or Elli, it comes out to the same):

Either town wins right here, or Implosion dies.

Thomith, me and Elli or Neruz. Same scenario as before, Thomith being the deciding factor.

If we no-lynch again, Implosion dies, and we have:

• Thomith
  Neruz
  Elli
  Banshee

Town lynches Neruz. Possible town win here. If Elli is scum, though...

• Thomith
  Elli kills Thomith or Banshee
  Banshee
  

Loss in Endgame

[Thomith]

If i had to choose someone to lynch i'd probably pick you over anyone else.

Honestly i really don't think Thomith is scum

?

Bah our situation now is crap considering we lynched scum day 1 and 2.
If we get into 3 way lylo i really don't want to be the deciding factor, although i have no choice in that :/.

[Banshee]

If you're not going to lynch me, then we need to lynch Neruz.

If you do lynch me, you need to lynch Neruz tomorrow.

I'll go along with either.

[Thomith]

I would like to lynch neruz today, but that comes to nothing if everyone else wants to lynch banshee,
reasoning as to why i don't want to lynch banshee is because a gut feeling is telling me that the scum no killed.

[implosion]

I'd like to make two things clear.
First of all,

even if Evil Bullet makes it to the final 3 (assuming we screw up today), you are not to lynch him.

Second of all,

the scum have no motivation to kill Evil Bullet over me tonight.

Here's why.

For the first statement, look at the setup. I'm going to assume that EB is an even night jailkeeper (either town or scum) because he claimed it before the odd-night vig (which has symmetry) flipped.
So either the setup is: watcher + encryptor + X vs even jailkeeper + odd vig + bodyguard + innocent child
Or the setup is watcher + encryptor + even jailkeeper vs odd vig + bodyguard + innocent child.

Now, let's look at what utility each of these roles has in each of these setups.
In the first setup, the watcher has utility in that it can find the odd night vig or the even night jailkeeper, or the bodyguard, every night. That is, if every power role is alive, it has two potential targets it can see. In the second setup, it has one and a half. The only power role it can see on even nights is a bodyguard, which isn't all that useful to see, frankly.
The odd vig and the bodyguard have essentially the same function in both setups. Same with the innocent child. But the important part (more than the watcher) is the utility of the jailkeeper itself. In the first situation, with EB as town, it has the following purposes: protecting the innocent child, protection in general, blocking the mafia kill, blocking the mafia watcher, plus it's synergistic with the odd-night vig. In the second situation with EB as scum, what purpose does an even-night jailkeeper serve? Blocking town power roles? The only role it can even block is the bodyguard, and in a lot of cases the bodyguard activating is a

good

thing! protecting their scumbuddies? sorry, but the vig hits them on nights when the jailkeeper can't even activate!

EB's role has absolutely no utility for the mafia, and it has clear synergy with the already-proven town power roles.

For the second statement (the scum have no motivation to kill EB over me tonight, at least based on roles alone) look at the following.

Currently alive, we have me, EB, and four unclears.
suppose we mislynch today. me, EB, and three unclears.
Now, let's look at what happens if the scum kill me vs if they kill EB:

Kill EB. me and 3 unclears in mylo. we probably lynch that day since i'll obviously die if we don't.
Kill me. EB and 3 unclears in mylo. They probably nolynch to see if someone will die. Either EB declares his target beforehand, or he doesn't.

But either way, the scum can no-kill and lose nothing because eaasdfdddsiiijojjjospaoisjdf

i just realized that i'm wrong

carry on >.>

still, EB is town even if they leave him alive until then. If they do, then it's almost definitely wifom. If i die tonight, you should lynch in 4p tomorrow, and NOT evil bullet.

So yeah. Thomith doesn't make sense as scum with either of the flipped scum (or on his own, in my opinion) so he's off the table.

Frankly, I'm also between Ellibereth and neruz right now. Banshee's outlook on the game right now (willingness to die, along with the sudden change off of thomith) make me think that she's town.

[implosion]

Posts 32-33.

Distancing and weak bussing, or weakly pushing a mislynch?

[implosion]

Also interesting, the entirety of page 3 up to and including post 66.

both flipped scum

do the same thing. They attack Thomith for defending Neruz. And in fact, voidedmafia unvotes neruz to vote thomith. hiphop was already voting thomith.

So they're pushing a lynch on someone either for defending someone they know is scum, or for defending someone they know is town. But more importantly than that,

probably

, is the fact that they were both focusing the brunt of their offense towards thomith, and less towards neruz.

[implosion]

And then we have posts like 819...

would voided bus both buddies in this situation?

also i'll stop multiposting now x.x

[Thomith]

hmm i guess it is weird that voided would bus 2 scum.

Maybe we could lynch elli as he would be the scum we wouldn't catch, however if it is wrong we have 2 heavily suspected players in lylo.

[Banshee]

implosion is right, and Thomith is not likely to be scum.

I don't know what to think about Elli but I do know that that player has significantly reduced their contribution sitewide lately. I already told the towntell I thought Elli gave when VoidedMafia was already lynched.

For me, the scum is to be found in Neruz/Ellibereth with a preference for Neruz as being scum.

If EB is scum, then the game is badly imbalanced. Town should look at it like this:

Implosion and EB and yourself = town. Thomith is not conftown but you should treat him as such because if he's not, he's the most brilliant actor I've ever seen. And I don't think that's likely.

So scum must be in the other three.

If you lynch me today it won't matter as long as you lynch Neruz tomorrow. But in my view you MUST lynch Neruz on one of these two times to win. I truly don't believe Elli is scum.

[Thomith]

VOTE: Neruz
If this is wrong i really don't know who would be scum between elli and banshee.