Mini 1219 - Bedtime Stories Mafia - Game Over!

[Ellibereth]

Thomith, can you link to what you think your *best* town and scum games are?
At this point I think this game is in the realm of super-meta reliant for me.

[Thomith]

I think i already did post it earlier.

If i didnt they are
newbie 1085 as town

Newbie 1102 as scum.

[Neruz]

Was what in?

[Banshee]

@Neruz: You're seriously sticking to a claim that you believed that there would be three cult recruiters in a 13-person game? Did you think there would be scum in the game? How would you have distinguished between scum and cult? What do you think would have happened if they had recruited the same person on a given night? What would be the wincon, anyway? Assuming that each cult leader recruited each night and that there were no duplicates, the cult members would in aggregate outnumber the townies. What then? Would they continue to recruit until the town was gone? At what point would winning be achieved?

Wouldn't that have to be in the rules in order to understand how to win? Were you trying to lynch cult members at the start of the game? Why weren't you alerting the rest of the town about this during the RVS stage?

[Neruz]

You're way overthinking this Banshee; GreyICE sent me a PM about how he had this awesome absurd setup which had been rejected over 11 times with three cult recruiters in it that he'd finally managed to get by the review committee by virtue of bribery and sneakery. I asked him how the hell he got it past the review board and he responded by saying PZ really likes bunnies and when he finds bunnies in his house you can get all kinds of things past him.

In hindsight it was blatantly obvious he was kidding around, but for some inexplicable reason i thought he was serious, i also assumed that the cult stuff would be in the rules and everyone else would be aware of it. I put no more thought into it than that.

If i'd stopped to think about the actual considerations of three cult recruiters in one game and all that jazz i'd have realised that it was all joking nonsense, the entire point is that at no point did i stop to think.

[Banshee]

You were questioning this well after the RVS stage when the rules were available and you were still perplexed.

How do you reconcile your superior and condescending attitude throughout the first part of the game with your admission that you didn't think at all in this case? Doesn't that seem like pretty serious cognitive dissonance of some sort? Was the condescension more or less an act to catch scum?

[Neruz]

Thomith, can you link to what you think your *best* town and scum games are?
At this point I think this game is in the realm of super-meta reliant for me.

I havn't been scum in any MS games so far. Feel free to look at my other games though if you feel it will help.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=15198
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=15547
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=15590
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=15982
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=16356
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=17903


Banshee, i didn't bother to read the rules post. 99% of games all have the same rules posts and there were no unique game-wide rules mentioned in the PM, so i saw no reason to read it.

How do you reconcile your superior and condescending attitude throughout the first part of the game with your admission that you didn't think at all in this case? Doesn't that seem like pretty serious cognitive dissonance of some sort? Was the condescension more or less an act to catch scum?

I reconcile it by being a gigantic hypocrite.

[Neruz]

+1 reading comprehension for me, post was directed at thomith. Should not post at 3 in the morning, going to sleep now.

[Banshee]

If we're not lynching me today (and I'm pretty sure EB has his heart set on this) then I would like to lynch Neruz. I think he's most likely to be scum. But I have only so-so confidence in my read on this. Also, I have no Ellibereth meta and I don't know how he differs when he's scum or town. What I've read lately ALL seems the same and it all seems town to me so I think my scumdar must be broken where he's concerned.

So I'm announcing my intent of sheeping Implosion because he seems to have a better, more objective handle on the game than I do. I'll help with whatever cases and stuff but I don't want to trust my own judgment here because if I'm wrong we could lose.

[implosion]

~~~I'll have time starting today.
activity wise at least one person can support me drop was site-wide ~

this is true.

it's surprising how little scum teams utilize daytalk sometimes, especially people not use to it.
There have been SEVERAL cases where people just post first then check, or don't bother to check at all for a while.

this is also true.

Frankly, here's where i'm at.

thomith is town based on play and connections;
banshee and neruz are both reading as town based on play;
ellibereth isn't really reading town to me right now, but rainbowdash had a fairly strong town read on him...

I mean yeah, there are instances where scum could have been bussing neruz, but something about neruz's play in a vacuum reads as town. But i'm not entirely sure what that is, so i need to look more closely at him.

---

other note: what do people (including neruz) make of neruz's two RVS votes both being on scum?

[implosion]

@EB:

give me a banshee-scum case.

[Ellibereth]

other note: what do people (including neruz) make of neruz's two RVS votes both being on scum?

Beyond trivial.

[Neruz]

other note: what do people (including neruz) make of neruz's two RVS votes both being on scum?

I'm just

that

good.

[Banshee]

In this regard, I have heard the argument that it's a good idea for scum to vote for other scum in RVS to help instill an idea that the players are at odds in case of cardflips later on. I think this is crap, and I think Neruz is better than that.

It's null or possibly a slight towntell since scum-Neruz might not have done that. But definitely not a scumtell imo.

@Neruz:
Sorry to keep hammering you with questions. I'm just wondering if you remember what made you think that VoidedMafia was scum?

[Neruz]

If you mean right at the start of the day when i voted Thomith and fossed Voided, i figured at least one (if not both) were scum because they both massively overreacted to the votes being thrown around in RVS; it looked

exactly

like paranoid scum flailing wildly because he's afraid he's been 'caught'.

Amusingly, as it turned out i was exactly right.

[Banshee]

Okay. That makes sense to me.

My other question has to do with the whole "hammering a townie" controversy that came up twice in this game. When I replaced in, it looked like Evil Bullet was going to be lynched because he'd hammered a town read of his. I was looking at the game from a different perspective and I thought I saw what he was thinking and why things had happened the way they had. So I didn't want to lynch him. (I don't remember knowing he was a power role then so I'm going to say that I didn't know and that he hadn't been outed as one to you either. I'm pretty sure I'm right on that.)

When it turned out he hadn't been hammered, I voted for VoidedMafia because I'd seen something in the early game I didn't like. I don't remember what it was, but I could look it up again if that becomes important. It was something I thought was obvious though.

A long way to go for this question. But, do you still think it's horribly scummy to hammer a town read? Are there situations in which you might do the same? What were you thinking when I abandoned the near-lynch and went off on my own tangent about VoidedMafia? (Which I wasn't all that confident about, but more confident than in EB's lynch.)

[Neruz]

I still cannot think of any reason why a town player would willingly hammer a town read unless there was literally no other option, but if that is the case then you are already aware that one of your town reads is wrong, so that particular logic no longer applies.

[implosion]

I just realized that i can use the two-person ISO feature to iso hiphop and voidedmafia. i am a happy implosion.

Ellibereth - null, largely because I'm just so damn unsure of how to read you.

Cloudocean: Any thoughts on recent events?

These two interactions with elli's slot just feel like distancing in my gut. The second one feels like something that scum would say to a lurking scumbuddy kind of as a prod to make them post more, and kind of as a small form of distancing. Compare it with the slightly more acerbic "Parama: ...are you even going to post?" and something about it really feels scummy. And then the only time hiphop mentioned cloud was to say that he needed a prod... idk, something about that feels a bit odd. they both essentially poked cloud with a soup ladle, and then voided really kind of ignored ellibereth for the most part... and then blamed that on being "unable to read him."

Then there's hiphop. He didn't mention elli at all on day two as far as i can tell...

doing the iso, looking at interactions, something about interactions with elli feel more feigned than interactions with other. Voided is right in a way that elli is difficult to read in a vacuum, which is part of why i'm looking at flipped scum so much. Banshee/deselby interactions... feel slightly less feigned in places. and there's this:

Switch Deselby with Implosion, or at least iso both, then tell me that Implosion is more town then Deselby.

when rainbowdash was trying to create the elements of harmony. I don't know, i don't think scum would just blatantly say "hey, please put one of my scumbuddies in your voting block, thanks." It would just feel weird.

As for the null read from voided, sure, it could go either way. But the more important point of that is that neruz and hiphop were voidedmafia's only two scumreads in that post. I just don't think voided would do that for some reason. Sure, that doesn't say anything about thomith or banshee, but we all know why thomith is town and as for banshee in a vacuum...

there are a few reasons that i think banshee is town. First of all, her demonstrated willingness to be lynched today. Second of all, what i feel is genuine scumhunting more so than ellibereth. Third, I thought her reaction to my pressure on her was genuine. And also, I've kind of changed my mind about the whole deselby l-1 l-2 weird thing... i think it could just be badtown doing weird stuff.

So:

VOTE: Ellibereth

I think that an ellibereth lynch will end the game. I have strong reason to think thomith is town. I have solid reasons to think neruz is town (voided's post; the fakehammer to an extent; his general style of posting, like the self-attention attracting that i mentioned that he did in the RVS forever ago). I also have

some

reasons to think he's scum, but the townpoints outweigh the scumpoints, i think. I have reasons to think banshee is town (listed above). I cannot read ANYTHING about ellibereth in a vacuum, and interactions make me think he's scum.

So yeah. If elli isn't lynched today, elli is going to be lynched tomorrow (which is kind of what I said about wv, but this time i feel like this... like, IS the scum lynch).

So.

Rainbow mentioned elli's interactions with the voided wagon in saying he was town early on; i think elli would be the kind of person who would bus. I honestly think rainbowdash locked in on an elli-town read, and then may have unconsciously tried to support that read (see: elli is town because elli was passive when elli was just being low-activity everywhere).

So that's where i'm at. I want to see EB's take right now, too.

[implosion]

And this is the part where i probably start getting confirmation bias >.>

stop me if that happens, please.

[Banshee]

As I've said, my scum reads have sucked this game apart from the jump on VoidedMafia, which I can't help but feel was about 50% luck. I still get a strong towntell from Elli but, much like Vollkan, it's possible that I can't read him because his posting style and logic makes sense to me and so I always think he's town.

If we lynch in the pool of {me, Elli, Neruz} by my best guess we end up with a 50% chance of winning even by random chance. Pretty sure implosion has to be the night kill in order to prevent a confirmed townie from leading the town, but it really doesn't matter since they aren't going to NK Thomith so it's between EB and implosion anyway. From an objective standpoint I'd say that an EB nightkill would tend to make me look more suspicious and an implosion one would be a nulltell.

Not sure any of this helps but I think if we lynch in the pool above we're good. I'll vote whenever we're ready for that.

[Thomith]

I am willing to hammer pointing that out.

I am thinking that scum wouldn't RVS both scum as it would make it way too obvious that they are trying to look town although i might be WIFOMing too much here.

Elli is just making me go ugh, i really don't know if he is town or scum but my gut is telling me he is scum and he would be the scum we wouldn't catch so i don't know :/.

[Ellibereth]

well this is a pain

[Thomith]

Not going to try to talk us out of it?

[Ellibereth]

probably not.

I'm more worried about figuring out the third and shit.
since this doesn't make sense.

[Ellibereth]

god this is really annoying...
come onnnnn imp why couldn't you have just left me coast.
at least from my pov it would've been more probabilistically favorable and shit...