Mini 1260 - Last Will Mafia III (Over)

[Fishythefish]

Me. I'm town, and I usually have good town reads. Except for Amrun.

VOTE: Amrun

[Fishythefish]

I'm feeling Amrun's posting here sounds really off. Since my meta of him is "looks townish as scum", I have no idea what this should make me think.

[Fishythefish]

I'm feeling Amrun's posting here sounds really off. Since my meta of him is "looks townish as scum", I have no idea what this should make me think.

I didn't realize you were already voting Amrun when I read this earlier. So, you rvs vote her, she then acts in a way that is inconsistent with the scum meta that you have on her, and you choose to keep your vote on her because why?

I was drunk at the time, so my memory of my motivation here is rather hazy. I'm not at all sure how serious this was meant to be - and today it doesn't look a strong point to me. But I'm pretty sure I just couldn't find anywhere else I wanted my vote.

UNVOTE: VOTE: CoolDog
I don't like his point on Amrun being defensive. It's
a) An easy way to paint the target of a wagon as flailing scum, regardless of truth.
b) Not a scumtell.
c) Not particularly true here.

[Fishythefish]

[quote="In post 53Fishy: Drunkposting FTW. Are you scum?[/quote]
No, I'm as town as a big bowl of town.

[Fishythefish]

@SV: you highly doubt I'm town? Why? Why aren't you voting me?

[Fishythefish]

For page two over reacting to silly accusations of scum behavior is a scum tell. At least in my book. Also, don't post while you are drunk.

To be clear, I'm still in the RVS. I don't really see amrun's actions as that fidgety or overly defensive. Though, she is my strongest read. But saying someone is your strongest read in RVS is like saying that "Contagion" is a good movie before you actually see it.

@SV, arde you butt hurt enough to troll vote him

I'm afraid that resolutions not to post while drunk get overridden by drunkFishy, who holds all the power in these matters. Doesn't happen often, and he's never done anything I've really regretted.

The rest of this post I've got nothing to say about, really. I think you pushed a convenient wagon with weak reasoning. It being the RVS makes that more reasonable, sure, but it's still a scumtell for me.

What's off about my play, chamber?

[Fishythefish]

@Amrun: why is SV town?

[Fishythefish]

SC's wild theory on Amrun/SV is wild. Can't see Amrun would say "yeah, SV is town" repeatedly with no explanation if they were buddies. I don't think this is a particularly scummy wrongness from SC - but I don't like his dismissals of the subsequent wagon. He's keen to emphasise that his wagon is full of scum and/or not serious.

Also, I find that SV and Amrun forming a voting block interesting. Not necessarily scummy, but interesting. I believe this is most likly simply a reaction to what they perceive as wild accusations by Coug. However, as I said before, I want to see where the Amrun/coug wagons (forgot to put that in my post above) go before I move my vote.

This is a rather fence-sitty post. Is Coug scummy? No answer. Are SV/Amrun scummy? "Not necessarily". This leaves a lot of room to manoeuvre.

[Fishythefish]

I like the way that CoolDog responds to all my accusations with "yeah, I did that, get over it". Makes me feel much better about him.

UNVOTE:

@SC: in 112 you say SV is scummy for not voting his suspect. But what people are going after you for is your SV/Amrun link. And when they did that, your defences were "I don't mind scum voting me" and "this wagon is meaningless". Those just don't seem like the responses of somebody who I'd expect to be trying to make up their mind about whether Amrun and SV are town.

[Fishythefish]

@SC: I'm really, really surprised if your confidently decided on a scumteam on page 6. I can't imagine not still be trying hard to read those players.

[Fishythefish]

chamber doesn't make some good points, actually. I'm going to go ahead and not make them either.

VOTE: whispersilk

[Fishythefish]

So, to be clear: chamber asked you who you thought was scum. You didn't answer in case you were right and got NK'd?

[Fishythefish]

Then what is 157 saying? It's confusing me.

[Fishythefish]

I'm not usually particularly stupid, but this is not an act. In reply to chamber, you said:

"I said you were probably scum, because one of the many questions you asked me was who I thought was scum. Is better to answer honestly and risk being a NK target because you're right, or avoid answering and risk being called scum?"

Oh, I was parsing the first sentence wrongly, and so I thought the two were linked. Never mind, it all makes sense now.

[Fishythefish]

Just checking in/avoiding prod. I'll post properly tomorrow.

[Fishythefish]

@SC: why did you hammer whisper so early?

[Fishythefish]

I really dislike SC's hammer here. It was early in the day, and the wagon on whisper was very much active - it's hard to believe anyone

wouldn't

want to see more of that slot before the end of the day. Particularly since SC never exchanged so much as a word with whisper. whisper just wasn't scummy enough to warrant that early a lynch, and SC being a serious lynch contender gives him a solid scum motivation. I also didn't like his early game play, where he just didn't look interested in determining whether his reads were right. He looks like scum to me.

VOTE: SC

Darox has done bugger all here. His vote on whisper is unexplained, and he's not voting SC because Rhinox controlling three votes "makes him uneasy on principle". What does this mean? Does he want to lynch Rhinox? Why does this stop him voting SC? Nobody knows - this sort of fence-sitting would sit very well with Darox being SC's partner. On the other hand, his commentary on his will makes me think he's town - it's something town have much more reason to think about than scum, and it would be a pretty sharp scumbag who thought to fake that.

CoolDog reads like town to me. He responded well to my early accusations, and just seems to be scumhunting.

SV gives me a carefree vibe, which I tend to think of as town.

I don't see anything much in Amrun's play that lets me get a read on him.

I'm wondering about a "everyone leave your vote to Rhinox" strategy. Frankly, if he's scum I can't see us winning this game - there's no real way we could stop him getting a town lynch today, and tomorrow will be LYLO with the odds stacked against us at best. Leaving votes to him cements that, but things are so bad anyway that that's no big deal. If he's town, leaving votes to him really forces the scum to shoot at him, and that's a good thing if we have a doc/watcher/BG/etc., or if there's any obvtown for him to leave his votes to. Thoughts, anyone?

[Fishythefish]

My post doesn't say Rhinox is scum at all. In fact, I don't think Rhinox is scum.

I'm saying that IF Rhinox is scum, we've pretty well lost. Because in that case we need to lynch really well, and the scum have far too much control over the lynch for that to be likely. So we might as well put him at the top of our wills - if he's town, that's a strong move, and if he's scum it doesn't really matter.

[Fishythefish]

Did you hammer whisper because he wasn't going to scumhunt properly, or because you thought he was scum? I'm surprised if your read on him was strong enough that you wanted him dead without seeing more.

By your early game play, I mean your fight with Amrun and SV. I didn't feel you were trying to read two players you thought were scum. We discussed this at the time - see 112, 125 and 129. Similar theme, actually - you seem far more confident in your reads than I'd expect given the actual information in the game.

[Fishythefish]

It is if it leads you to ignore or not look for information that would tell you more. Here, I'm struggling to believe you can really have had the level of confidence your actions suggest. And your confidence gave you an easy way to argue with Amrun and SV, and let you hammer a wagon which was a rival to your own, so faking that confidence has strong scum motivation.

[Fishythefish]

@Darox: the way I look at it, if Rhinox is scum here the scum have a ridiculous amount of influence over the lynch. Imagine trying to lynch scum in 5-4 lylo. If scumRhinox wants to he can let us win, but practically it's just not going to happen. So the fact that leaving votes to Rhinox throws the game if he's scum is giving up only a tiny, tiny chance of victory. The boost our chances get if he's town outweighs that; forcing scum to shoot at Rhinox seems like a great idea to me. It means they can't target their kill, and protective PRs are in a good position.

[Fishythefish]

Good point about MYLO/LYLO. That means that at some point we

could

no lynch at 3:2 or 2:1 - similarly to how you can no lynch at 4:2 or 3:1 in a normal game. Depends heavily on circumstances, but it's an option to consider.

@Rhinox: you should consider not giving your townreads here, or if you do consider shaking up your will a little compared to what you say in the thread. Don't tell the scum whether they can secure a big vote stack by killing you, in other words.

[Fishythefish]

@Amrun: where does your SV town read come from?

[Fishythefish]

SC doesn't feel like scum. But I can't put my finger on why not.

UNVOTE:

Going to think about the game tomorrow.

[Fishythefish]

Right. None of the people who've actually contributed to the game feel particularly scummy to me, with the exception of SC, who I'm flip-flopping wildly on. So

VOTE: Darox

Post content or die.

[Fishythefish]

The reason I'm flipping wildly on SC is because there are two explanations for his play. Either he's scum, who twice found it convenient to appear very confident in his reads, or he's town who was twice very confident in his reads. If it's the latter, we have an enormous playstyle difference, and I really don't know how likely I think that is. I should probably get my hands dirty and actually meta him, or at least work out if I've played with him before.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy iso:
Still doesn't read like obvtown to me like he usually does when he's town.

I very much don't always read as obvtown whenever I'm town. If that's your meta of me, you've been very lucky in the games we've played together. In this game, I'm rather floundering for solid scumreads - I've got mixed feelings or townreads on pretty much everyone. That's not at all uncommon for me as town, and particularly early in the game.

@Darox: who's scum?

[Fishythefish]

Everyone.

I'm pretty distrustful of you & Rhinox, and think SC is suspicious as hell, but everyone covers it pretty well.

What have Rhinox and I done that makes you distrustful of us? What is suspicious about SC? Is there anything else you're thinking about anyone in the game? It's pretty hard to read you if you don't post stuff about stuff.

---

Amrun has defended SV throughout the game, to an extreme degree, and is never afraid to shout "SV IS TOWN" for no reason that is ever going to satisfy anyone else. What's more, he must know that his shouting is never going to convince anyone. Question is, why?

I'm not seeing it as a scum-scum interaction. It's an unnecessary, massive link. Possibly Amrunscum might go for it in a WIFOMy, distancing way day 1, but after the link's been drawn hammering away on that line would be insanity. There's no way he could really think this is increasing the win chances of a Amrun-SV team.

Amrunscum-SVtown makes some sense to me. In this case, Amrun is trying to link the two of them (and succeeding). He'd hope that SV is lynched first, in which case he gets away with it (for being right), and if not then he takes SV down with him. Pretty gambitty, not the kind of thing I think scum actually do that much, but it could happen.

For me, Amrun being town makes the most sense. He's got a solid townread on someone, and so he's telling us that. Can't say it's a particularly useful thing to be doing, but I don't think it makes Amrun scum. If Amrun is town, the interaction doesn't reflect much on SV at all. If anything, I'd say he's slightly scummy because of it - he's been more or less happy to coast along with Amrun as his protector.

@CoolDog: what do you think Amrunscum's motivation for his play on SV is? I can't see how it could possibly help their position if they were buddies.

[Fishythefish]

After that I think CD was actually doing a pretty good job of

appearing to be scumhunting

. Near the end of the day I get a little confused - first in iso #15 CD is praising whisper for voting darox and calls for more darox votes, then the next real time day he's jumping on the whisper wagon.

What do you mean by the bolded? Why do you think CD is appearing to be scumhunting, rather than scumhunting?

[Fishythefish]

After that I think CD was actually doing a pretty good job of

appearing to be scumhunting

. Near the end of the day I get a little confused - first in iso #15 CD is praising whisper for voting darox and calls for more darox votes, then the next real time day he's jumping on the whisper wagon.

What do you mean by the bolded? Why do you think CD is appearing to be scumhunting, rather than scumhunting?

That does look awkward. I was typing as I was going through the isos and its a place where I went back and edited myself. I original had "I think CD was actually doing a pretty good job scumhunting" and was leaning more towards concluding that CD was leaning town until I read to the part where he voted whisper not long after praising whisper's Darox vote. That kinda changed my read on him mid post so I went back to edit to attempt to say that he appeared to be scumhunting well but I wasn't sold on him being town due to that other thing. I guess I was thinking scum don't really scumhunt but they still try to appear to be scumhunting, to explain how I could find CD scummy despite thinking he was doing "good scumhunting". I know I didn't make that distinction anywhere else so I can see why the wording would draw your attention.

So, you thought CD was scumhunting, then you found something odd towards the end of the day which you said made you "a little confused", and that made you decide that CD was only appearing to be scumhunting? Seems strange, and particularly strange without an epic scumread on CD. By contrast, with SC, who you seem to have a stronger scumread on, you said he was scumhunting. I'd like to hear absolutely anything at all about your thought or editing process that explains this.

UNVOTE:

I may well revote Darox soon, but this is worth following up. I think there's a chance that Rhinox slipped and told us he and CD are scumbuddies - because if they were Rhinox's actual thoughts would be going "yeah, CD has actually done a pretty good job of appearing to be scumhunting".

[Fishythefish]

@Rhinox: thanks. Right now, I'm seeing a middlingly plausible explanation if you are town or scum without CD, and a totally plausible explanation as scum with CD. This raises the odds of a you+CD scumteam significantly for me.

But on the flip side, other than this I think you're both town. I'm pretty sure I still prefer a
VOTE: Darox
to anything else (also, there's a niggling part of my value system which prefers fun to winning, and it would hate losing to Lurker-Darox-Scum far more than to Active-Rhinox-CD-Scumteam).

I'm happy for a claim from Darox, if Rhinox is still up for the lynch.

[Fishythefish]

Yeah, right.

Who did you investigate last night? Why on earth did I need to ask that question?

[Fishythefish]

Why didn't you claim that originally?

[Fishythefish]

Seems a strange thing not to claim. I mean, if you're the cop then revealing your result is a really good thing, and I'd be itching to do it.

Why did you investigate SV?

[Fishythefish]

Hmmmm. I don't see any particular reason to believe or disbelieve this claim.

UNVOTE:

I'll think through the various permutations tomorrow. (I know I keep doing this "content tomorrow" thing - it's because I often post late at night when tired and/or tipsy)

[Fishythefish]

@Amrun: I'm fairly sure there wasn't really a night 0. It was just a name used for the confirmation/will sending period, when the scum also got to talk - or at least, that was my interpretation of it. This is not uncommon in games.

If I'm right about that, Amrun is town. This isn't something scum could avoid knowing, and Amrun's ignorance isn't faked. SC's, however, could easily be.

Nothing there impacts on Darox's alignment. If he's town and we leave him alive, we are in a very solid position - SV is town, Amrun is town, SC is very likely scum so we will lynch scum, and happiness and rainbows ensue. If he's town and we kill him, things aren't great - SV will get shot, most likely, and then it's just a standard mislynch. If he's scum, the benefits of lynching him today over tomorrow are fairly marginal - SC is going to be a good lynch at some stage either way. I tend to think that in this case, the risk of lynching a town cop makes me happier to compromise and lynch SC.

At this stage, the lynch is clearly between Darox and SC, and it's clearly Rhinox's call. Get it right, Rhinox.

[Fishythefish]

I'd much rather lynch Darox.

Why don't you just put your vote somewhere so you can be accountable, fishy?

Yeah, ok.

VOTE: Darox

Rhinox makes some good points, which rather change my mind on Darox. That really doesn't look like the play of someone with an inno on SV.

[Fishythefish]

By my count it's only L-1. Remember we still need a majority of votes to lynch - so 5/9, not 4 people.

[Fishythefish]

I'm confirmed town. Go me! More later.

[Fishythefish]

Can anyone see any objections to massclaim, with me deciding the order?

[Fishythefish]

@Amrun: I have four votes. If I was scum with anyone at all, the game would be over. So I'm town. We'll see about the usefulness of massclaim - right now I think it can't hurt, and has *some* chance of helping.

The order is:
SC
SV
CD
Amrun
Fishy

Claim, SC.

[Fishythefish]

Nope. Claim, SV.

[Fishythefish]

You've got a massive townread on SV, but noone else really gets it, me included. I don't think it's at all justified by anything in the game.

[Fishythefish]

If you are the only person who sees something, it should be a hint that it's not blatantly obvious.

[Fishythefish]

I want to finish massclaim before I comment on that claim. Plus, I want to think aboyut it.

SV, you're up.

[Fishythefish]

@mod:

could you prod SV please? It's been a couple of days, and we're waiting on him.

[Fishythefish]

VOTE: SC

That's the hammer. I'm sure enough that this is the best lynch here, and I've heard enough to know where my votes going.

Go town!

[Fishythefish]

I'm terrified that SV is a godfather. CD's claim makes little sense as scum with SC - it was early, and he hadn't seen any town power, so had no real idea what else was going to be claimed. Also, if he is believed it brings him to CD-Amrun-SV tomorrow; not a welcoming prospect for a scumbag.

Thoughts?

[Fishythefish]

The role PM thing is quite convincing.

You should discount SV matching his town meta. You have not been watching SV with a neutral eye - you were always going to see the town side of his play.

[Fishythefish]

I've enjoyed all the LW series, and I'd be glad to be notified if and when there's another in the pipeline. I like the way the mechanic makes townhunting and scumhunting both very important. One comment on the moderation of this one: I think it should have been clearer that there was a N0.

@SC: the gambit worked to some extent; it made CD look like town, and I certainly toyed with SV-godfather. But Amrun to me was more obvious town. His claim cleared up the only real problem with his play (irrational read on SV), and the way CD backed up Amrun's N0-in-PM claim at the end of the day meant Amrun could hardly be scum. Even before then, no way would scum claim there was a N0 if there wasn't, so Amrun being real was the only thing that really made sense.

Townies who did particularly well:
- Rhinox. Looked town enough to gather some votes, and chose town to pass them to.
- Amrun. I liked the slightly-fake claim, and he generally looked town.
- chamber. Played a very town day 1.

Thanks to everyone for playing, and particularly to Llama for modding.