Mini320: Urban Legends Mafia is over!

[audacesiuvat]

Vote Yosarian2

, therefore continuing the pattern.

[audacesiuvat]

And I don't know what's up with your name.

From Latin. Audaces fortuna iuvat = Fortune favors the bold.

Except in Mafia, where the bold usually get themselves lynched.

[audacesiuvat]

Just call me a sheep.

unvote, vote ziliu

[audacesiuvat]

vote: audacesiuvat

I have a role-based hunch.

Anything more specific? Anything I can refute, maybe?

[audacesiuvat]

It's just a hunch, partially backed up by my role. From the information I have, I'd say there's about a 20% chance he belongs to an antitown killing group. I wanted to see how he'd respond if I pressured him. I'll claim fully when I have more conclusive information.

20 percent? Heck, I'll take those odds. If we assume that we have 2 more scum left, then with 10 people left and no other information then everybody has a 20% chance of being scum. Heck, if we remove the confirmed innocents (BrizzyBoi, help im a bug, Sentinel99), then my 20% chance looks great in comparison to the 2/7 (28.6%) random chance!

[audacesiuvat]

[quote="VisMaior]Fallacy much? Compare yourself with proven protown himabs extra info incriminating you and a random person-> you come out top.[/quote]

I'm not quite sure what you mean by that. I am assuming that hiab, BrizzyBoi, and Sentinel are innocent, and that we have 2 scum left (both reasonable assumptions IMO). Knowing no other information, the remaning seven people each have a 28.6% chance of being scum. hiab says that he has information that puts me at around 20% of being scum. 28.6% > 20%. I don't see a fallacy.

Put another way, hiab is saying that there's about an 80% chance I'm pro-town. All I'm trying to show that that hiab saying that I'm about 20% to be scum doesn't mean all that much.

[audacesiuvat]

So you are saying that because himab has incriminating evidece on you, you are less likely scum. Still dont see the fallacy?

The whole 20% business is not accurate, the fact is tha hiab has something(or at least he says he has) that could incriminate you, but he is not sure. You pick the numbers and try to prove your innocence, while the

numbers

actually dont mean that much at all.

Incriminating evidence? Hardly. help i'm a bug has claimed a "role-based hunch". If it was truly incriminating, he'd have said there's a 100% chance that I'm scum, not "about a 20% chance", and I'd have been strung up.

And I'm not "picking the numbers", I'm using just what hiab gave us. I'm just trying to argue that a self-professed 20% hunch doesn't amount to much.

[audacesiuvat]

Okay.

My evidence says 20% chance of you being scum.

Random chance (including everyone) says 20% chance as well.

Those stack.

Using my 20% figure, there's a (.8 * .8) = .64 = 64% chance of you not being scum, which means a 36% chance of you being scum.

See? The 20% chance doesn't replace the random chance that every one of us has, it simply adds with it.

It doesn't work like that.

Say that your evidence showed me as being scum 0% of the time instead. By your argument, those chances would stack, and then there'd be a (.8 * 1) = .8 = 80% of me being pro-town, and 20% chance of me be scum, which obviously can't be the case.

Anyway, we're getting off track arguing about nitty mathematical equations. It doesn't matter much in the grand scheme of things.

hiab, could you answer one question? Did your information specifically lay out that I have a 20% chance of being scum, or did that number just come from your interpretation of some information that you received last night? If it was your interpretaion, can we just call it something else, something like "a small but not overwhelming" chance that I'm scum?

[audacesiuvat]

...

Vote: audacesiuvat

OK, now I'm

really

confused.

I'm better claim now before this gets any more out of hand, and see if we can't get some answers. I'm Cell Phone Guy. I'm a 3-shot mason to whomever I want to send a message to, one call per night. Last night I sent a message to BrizzyBoi to confirm my innocence and tell him not to waste an investigation on me in the future. Or at least I thought I did.

So, I don't know what led help i'm a bug to think that I'm scum, and I'm very confused as to why you're voting for me, BrizzyBoi.

[audacesiuvat]

Unvote

Im very confused right now. Does your PM have a guarantee from the Mod that your innocent or something like that? Or did Brizzyboi just have your word?

I doubt it, my impression of my role is that my message is just forwarded to the player through the mod with no editorializing. Anybody who is receiving my phone calls would have to take my word that I am innocent. But how often do scum get to send messages to non-scum players during night?

[audacesiuvat]

Eh, I don't terribly mind getting lynched now. I can't fault your logic, HIAB, and I'd be doing the same in your situation. It's just as well, anyway. since my ability is pretty useless now that I've claimed. At least we're not getting rid of a better power role.

Before I go out, I will

FOS: VisMaior

for being extremely aggressive in attacking me, even after HIAB dropped his suspicion on me.

So, I'm just going to go off into a corner and get brain cancer now. You know, Urban Legends and stuff.

[audacesiuvat]

This post is actually what convinced me to revote Audaces.

I would think that someone who was actually innocent would be protesting his own lynch, especially when the evidence for it is not at all conclusive. It could easily be coincidence that i roleblocked him night 0 and there was no kill, but he says he "can't fault [my] logic". This just smells fishy to me.

What is this, reverse WIFOM?

Would I prefer it if I wasn't lynched? Heck yes. I think there are other people here who have acted far scummier than I. But there is evidence out there that I could be scum, and if the only way to clear the air is my lynching, I don't mind. I really don't mind because now that everybody knows about my ability, its usefulness is practically nil. So the town doesn't lose much by my lynching, save for a warm pro-town body.

I'm just trying to look at the situation logically and dispassionately. If it looks fishy, so be it.

[audacesiuvat]

So it looks like you're going to give me a night to prove myself. Thanks.

Vote: bluesoul, FOS: Der Hammer

for trying to lynch a pretty solidly-confirmed mason.

[audacesiuvat]

I don't like the looming deadline, but can live with it, given no other recourse (and having offered myself as a sacrifice earlier!). Given that the day will end soon whether we want it to or not, I am happy with my vote.

[audacesiuvat]

Mod

, I'm still voting for bluesoul.

[audacesiuvat]

Also, on the note of aud's "Cell Phone Guy" claim, I looked up cell phones on snopes.

http://search.atomz.com/search/?sp-q=ce ... m=1&sp-s=0

There are a lot of legends surrounding cell phones. aud, could you elaborate on your flavor a bit please?

Nothing really flavorful about my role. Just that I have a cellphone and no charger, giving me enough power for three calls. I expect the cell phone + brain cancer legend is what's going to get me in the end, but that's just speculation on my part.

Vote: bluesoul

[audacesiuvat]

Heh, heh. You know that whole "send a message to clear my name" thing I was supposed to do last night? Well, funny story. You see, since I thought that the doc would protect BrizzyBoi again, I sent him my message. You know, that message that was supposed to exonerate me. I, er, I guess he never got it. Um ... whoops?

[audacesiuvat]

If you had to pick a person to send the message to, who would it be? It had to be somebody who a) would survive the night and b) wasn't scum. I had 3 viable candidates, BrizzyBoi, Sentinel, and HIAB. HIAB I thought would be the quick pick for a scum kill, since he was confirmed pro-town and has an ability. I almost went with Senitnel, but I picked BrizzyBoi because, despite his role, he had already survived one night. I had no reason to suspect that he wouldn't survive a second night.

[audacesiuvat]

Anyways, My role's ability is that I can pick one person a night and randomize their target (I can give more flavor on my role, but I won't unless asked). On night three, I chose Bluesoul (I don't really know why, I just did.). Considering that the cop died (when any smart doc would've been protecting him) I'm guessing that Bluesoul is the doctor. Unfortunately, I'm not quite sure what this says about the mafia for trying to target the cop regardless of the fact that he would obviously be protected by the doc. if I hadn't unknowingly messed it up, that is.

The only reasons why I think bluesoul might be mafia is similar to the reasons argued above. Mafia would probably suspect the doc would be covering the cop so both the doc and the mafia end up covering sommebody else. I randomize bluesoul's kill and *whoops* the cop dies. It is also a possibility that since I randomized bluesoul's kill, it somehow went through the doc's protection, but I'm not entirely sure whether or not that makes any sense.

You echoed my reservations pretty well. It doens't seem logical for the Mafia to target Briz, and it doesn't seem logical for the doc to not protect Briz, yet something had to give. Maybe we're making too many assumptions here? Maybe we don't have a doc? Maybe the real doc was blocked, and you randomized bluesoul's kill onto Briz?

The only people who I'm willing to exonerate right now are Sentinel and Armlx. I like your story, Scalebane, but I need to think about it a bit more before I believe it.

[audacesiuvat]

Only problem with voting this way is that armlx has a power role that has been confirmed. While he can be both mafia and RB at the same time, none of his or HIAB's actions (except for the whole wanting-to-lynch-me thing) seemed scummy to me.

[audacesiuvat]

Vote: bluesoul

Still consider him to be the scummiest player around. Nothing much has happened today to change my mind.

[audacesiuvat]

Interesting, because I intended to send it to Sentinel. Did I get switched?

[audacesiuvat]

Scalebane may have randomized my role last night. (I swear, I don't think I've ever done more footwork to validate such a useless role. )

Sentinel: bluesoul's failed lynch is 99% indicative of a townie. Think about it - how would we ever win if we were up against a scum that we couldn't lynch?

[audacesiuvat]

Yep, that's my message.

That just about clears Der Hammer in my book, he could have lied and said that he didn't get the message, and in the general confusion nobody would have said anything else.

The one that really gets me is Scalebane. Why oh why did you randomize my action? You knew I was on the hook for my role, and I had only one more chance to get a message through. So why randomize it? I think you were hoping it would hit scum, I would go 0-for-3, and I'd be the easy lynch target.

Vote: Scalebane

[audacesiuvat]

Just because he "knows" that he isn't scum, I'm still not quite buying it. The logic with regards to why he had to reveal the message or show that he was scummy still applies. In fact, something about his post just makes my scumdar go off.

I seriously don't think Der Hammer is scum. When he got my message, I'm sure he realized that it was not intended for him, since I discussed his scumminess and spoke about him in the third person. So why come forward? If he stays quiet, then despite two attempts to prove myself, I wasn't able to come up with the goods, and I'd be quickly lynched. Instead, he pretty much confirms me as innocent. I don't think scum would make such a poor play.

[audacesiuvat]

I think it's pretty well accepted that we can reduce our potential scum candidates to four, those being Der Hammer, Scalebane, VisMaior, and Yosarian. Assuming that we have two scum left in the game (a decent assumption, IMO) that means we have six possible scum pairings left. I've been thinking about possible pairings, and here's what I think.

I'm having a hard time tying Der Hammer to anybody. He's enjoying a nice long battle with Scalebane and Yosarian currently. VisMaior bandwagoned him yesterday before the bluesoul lynch. Given his actions, his roleclaim (which makes sense given his evidence), his clearing of me, and his interactions with the other scum candidates, he's done more than enough to earn innocence in my eyes.

Theoretically, we could just lynch the other three in any order and end up winning, but there is a little more evidence pointing me in a specific direction. In one of his first posts, Scalebane outlined all of the other three suspects in a wishy-washy could-be-scum-could-be-town sort of way, but voted for Yosarian. This wasn't a dangerous vote, and he eventually jumped off it to get onto the DH wagon, but it's still something. VisMaior cast an early vote for Yosarian today, and has stuck by it, even after DH also voted for Yosarian. It's not terribly convincing, but it does lead me to believe that Yosarian probably isn't scum.

The pairing of Scalebane - VisMaior is the only combination where I can find no bad blood. VisMaior random voted Osloboditelj in the beginning, and has not argued for or against Scalebane the entire game. Scalebane's possible mafia list has included Vismaior alongside Yosarian and DH, but he's found the other two suspects far more intriguing. They are my pick for scum pair.