Open 12 - Masons & Monks (ABANDONED) - before 405

[mole]

If it's any consolation, ac, I know what you were getting at (I think). Seems it's easiest to cross that bridge when we get to it, though. Don't want to give the bad guys any ideas.

[mole]

Vote: scotmany12

Because I'm not gonna let anyone get away with that kind of claim without comment.

[mole]

I dont know, it does have its benefits and shortcommings all at the same time.
Pro- We can now look at his posts with a extremely lower lvl of suspicion.
Whatever he says we can know that he must be on the lvl about his accusations.
The downfall being he may be killed off by the mafia tonight and we loose the opertunity to pull off a little gambit later in the game.

Why do you assume his innocence? He could be a werewolf, after all, and they're the ones who killed his partner.

Unvote: scotmany12

, but I'll be watching you. :)

Vote: Nightfall

[mole]

He could be lying about being a mason, but the real mason would know that he's lying and could just come out and get him lynched. (or, if the real mason is a werewolf, it's a good opportunity to get in an easy first hit). It seems like a very bad move to lie about something like that.

[mole]

Yeah! mafiascum capital of Australia right here!

[mole]

Watch what you say there. The mod's one of us too.

bwahaha

[mole]

Obvious, why? We already covered "claiming mason wasn't a good move and it doesn't confirm your innocence" last page.

[mole]

So we've got ac two votes from a lynch, and Nightfall three votes from a lynch. It's only page 3 -- should we slow down and figure out just

how

unlikely the event of the town being screwed by a bad lynch is?

I'll assume both scum groups kill randomly.

Innocent lynched today:

Both groups crosskill: 2/7 * 2/7 = 4/49

8.2%

One group crosskills, the other hits a townie: 2 * 2/7 * 5/7 = 20/49

40.8%

Both groups kill a townie: 5/7 * 4/7 = 20/49

40.8%

Both groups kill the same townie: 5/7 * 1/7 = 5/49

10.2%

Mafia lynched today:

Both groups crosskill: 1/7 * 2/8 = 2/56

3.6%

Mafia hits werewolf, werewolves hit townie: 6/7 * 2/8 = 12/56

21.4%

Werewolf hits mafia, mafia hits townie: 1/7 * 6/8 = 6/56

10.7%

Both groups kill a townie: 6/7 * 5/8 = 30/56

53.6%

Both groups kill the same townie: 6/7 * 1/8 = 6/56

10.7%

If we lynch a werewolf the odds are the same as above with mafia and werewolves reversed.

[mole]

Please correct me if there are any errors in my maths. If we want to continue with it from here it'll get a lot more complicated.

[mole]

I'm not sure which lines you are talking about in your first query, sorry.

For the second, about the mafia and werewolves killing the same player, there are

six

townie targets, and each of them has a 1/7 * 1/8 chance of being hit twice.

[mole]

So you aren't interested in how we're going to get a town win from two powerful mafia groups. Noted.

[mole]

So are any of you going to put forward, you know, one of those "arguments" for why I should be lynched?