Mini 443 - Tapioca Mafia - Game over!!

[Ripley]

Vote: Khelvaster

. Random.

[Ripley]

The first couple of pages of this game were almost entirely joke posts and joke votes, and especially when I don't know the players (only ever played with Earwig before), and when the joke posts are accumulating fast as they did here, I do tend to skim over them and wait for the game proper to start.

I'm happy at this early stage to leave my vote on Khelvaster. That early third vote on shadyforce, followed by this:

So, the bandwagon switched from Shady to pickem?

.. a somewhat unhealthy interest in bandwagons maybe, as was noted straightaway by pickemgenius.

[Ripley]

I didn't say that you did, I said it seemed like you did. I was merely commented on the fact that you asked which bandwagon everyone was getting on. It seems... odd that you just didn't choose one and jump on instead. That's all.

This sounds more like the post by Khelvaster that I commented on already, than like anything Shanba said.

[Ripley]

I guess it all depends how you interpret the first post (post 47). d&p thinks "Khel was flagging what he saw as a noteworthy trend". I got more of the sense picked out by kabenon007, the almost asking for permission to join in the latest big thing. It's not really clear.

I'm actually quite surprised by the general consensus that Khelvaster is scummy. A lot of people have voted him or FOS'ed him. I don't see inconsistency as so much of an issue as this original post, and even that wasn't such a huge deal. But look what's happened, all in the past day or so:

pickemgenius: Voted him for post 47
Ripley: left original random vote in place (because of Post 47)
Coppélia: Voted him for inconsistency
MightFireball: FOS'ed him, agreeing with Coppélia
Shanba: voted him
Aimee: "Khelvaster is the most scummy so far"
kabenon007:" I am leaning towards Khelvaster, but I don't want to do anything too rash"
Earwig: FOS'ed him ("Sort of going along with the Khelvaster thing")
d&p: FOS'ed him after detailed analysis

That's a

lot

of people. Just taking a quick look at the others:

beanbagboy: the only person to have ignored the Khelvaster issue completely. Not clear from his last post whether he even realises that kabenon changed the subject of his questioning from Shanba to Khelvaster.

shadyforce: prefers to bandwagon lurkers.

Still thinking about all this.

[Ripley]

Yes, Khelvaster's posting without a word of explanation, promise of explanation to come or even acknowledgement of all the questions raised about his previous posts, has turned my opinion against him again. I had until then been moving in the other direction, not because of anything Khelvaster did but because of the reactions of other people (I already alluded to these misgivings in post 83, so won't repeat them here).

[Ripley]

Pickem went off against me only after Ripley did, so he wouldn't be accused of starting a bw.

After I miscounted the 2 votes as 3 votes (someone changed their vote from shadow, and I hadn't noticed,) he jumped the gun to accuse me as soon as someone else put themselves on the line by accusing me in the first place.

But pickemgenius picked up on your post immediately - in the very next post, actually. It wasn't until the next page that I commented on it. When pickem accused you my vote was only on you because I'd voted you randomly at the start of the game.

[Ripley]

I'm getting more and more suspicious of Earwig, who has made just 4 brief posts so far.

Vote: Ripley

because those damn things scared me in that movie.

Jokey vote.

Unvote: Ripley

Even though it was lynch -3, It's a little early to tell anyone's alignment yet. It would have been nice to know what roles exist in this game, though.

Unvotes after three more votes are placed on me very quickly. Accompanied by a couple of vagueish remarks, the second of which seems somewhat dubious. Is he saying it would have been nice if the (random) bandwagon had advanced to the point where I roleclaimed?

Sorry - not intentionally lurking. I'll post thoughts soon.

Presumably in response to shadyforce naming him as a lurker in post 76, about 12 hours earlier. No attempt at content.

My favorite color is blue, but I like red too, as well as combinations of both colors.

Seriously, I'm sort of going along with the Khelvaster thing but need to re-read to see why. For now:

FoS: Khelvaster

In response to Kabenon007's post 78. Are these the thoughts he said he'd post soon? There are no useful thoughts about the game at all. Half this post is a nonsense reply about favorite colors (scum love to get involved in jokey diversions; so much more convenient than actually talking about the game).

The rest of it is pretty murky. Earwig seems to imply support of the Khelvaster bandwagon without having the least idea why, or what the case against Khelvaster is. It's like he's booking himself a reserve place on the wagon in case that should prove convenient later, whilst not actually committing himself to it in case it prove

inconvenient

later. Contributing absolutely no content, and falling back on the old "I need to reread" - surely a bit premature for this particular excuse? The game had only been running two RL days at that point and was only on page 4, with the first couple of pages mainly given over to jokes and banter. And Earwig had made 4 posts during that time, showing that he's been around throughout.

Unvote: Khelvaster
Vote: Earwig

[Ripley]

I don't really understand why everyone suddenly moved to earwig so fast. Just because he isn't talking much, does that really implicate him in being mafia?

Everyone? It was just two people.

Overestimating bandwagons seems to be a persistent habit of yours.

And if you had read my post through you'd see it wasn't just that he hasn't said much, it was also the things he

had

said, that made me change my vote.

[Ripley]

Why do you keep missing the point?

I voted Earwig because the four posts he'd made avoided posting content and actually contained material I found suspicious.

Everyone keeps going about voting him for being silent, and there is even talk of replacing him, as if he hadn't been posting at all. In most games, the time elapsed since he last posted wouldn't raise an eyebrow.

It is clear from his posting that he was watching the thread since he twice responded to invitations to post.

Lynching lurkers does us nothing. If they are lurking, yet online, that says something, but for all we know Earwig doesn't frequent the site.

We

do

know. He has made 11 posts in other games since his last post in this game. You can use the Search option to find out stuff like this.

[Ripley]

I'm amazed that it's still necessary, after all the times the point has been repeated, for Aimee to have to explain yet again in post 188 (in response to Shanba this time) that the case against Earwig is

not a simple one of lurking

. I've posted twice to clarify this since my original post about Earwig (which made the case against him in detail), and Aimee was crystal clear on the subject in her long post 174, and again, in case anybody missed that, she repeats it in her player summary post, where her comments on Earwig don't even

mention

lurking. And yet somehow Shanba manages to repeat this old mistake.

This all started with Khelvaster and his weird post 142:

I don't really understand why everyone suddenly moved to earwig so fast. Just because he isn't talking much, does that really implicate him in being mafia?

which sets two misconceptions in motion: (1) a sizeable bandwagon has formed on Earwig (the "everybody" Khlevaster refers to was in fact just two people) - and (2) the reason for the bandwagon is lurking. As Aimee says, it seems that he can't even have read my post.

I responded just two posts later pointing out both the mistakes, but nobody takes a blind bit of notice, and beanbagboy, pickemgenius and Coppélia all chime in with comments about Earwig's

silence

, and the folly of lynching lurkers. Coppélia quotes some comments made by shadyforce before my post 139 (the post where I make the case against Earwig and vote him) but completely ignores Post 139 and shadyforce's Post 141, that is, both the posts that actually include votes on Earwig.

I posted yet

again

(Post 149) to repeat that the case against Earwig was not that he was being silent, but Khelvaster appeared to ignore this for a third time, saying in the very next post:

Wouldn't it be better to lynch someone who is showing mafia signs, like MightyFireball or d8p than someone who is silent? If he is silent, he will be in trouble with the mod. It's better not to suspect people if they haven't done anything. That's the game mod's duty, not the town mob's duty.

At this point the others do seem to grasp what I've been saying. As for Khelvaster, he proceeds to get into a microdebate with Mighty Fireball (none of which I found at useful) and never mentions Earwig again. I thought all of Khelvaster's behavior described above was really suspicious, though I like my vote on Earwig enough to be keeping it there. Anyway,

FOS: Khelvaster

.

Though we disagree on a couple of points, you have said almost everything I have in my notes, and put them to shame, as I'd lost heart when I saw the town wasn't responding. I stopped at page 4.

I don't understand what you mean by the town "not responding". This has been a very active and busy game. Was there some particular point you made that you thought was overlooked?

Lurking does not=scumtell.

What precisely do you mean by a lurker? I'm not even sure everyone uses the same definition. My personal definition is somebody who posts, almost invariably without content, just often enough to avoid replacement. And I think there's a real correlation between this behavior and scumminess.

Lurking involves some minimal degree of presence. If somebody stops posting altogether, they aren't a lurker, they've quit the game. I agree that these people should usually be replaced unless they made some significantly scummy posts before leaving.

It's too soon to tell what the situation is with Earwig. In his last post he said he was going to reread. Maybe he'll respond to the prod and get back to us.

[Ripley]

Sorry about double posting; this is just to clarify that I hadn't seen Khelvaster's latest post when I made mine, and I see from a quick skim of it that my comment about him never mentioning Earwig again is now invalid, so I retract that. I haven't read this new post of his in detail so won't comment further.

[Ripley]

I responded just two posts later pointing out both the mistakes, but nobody takes a blind bit of notice, and beanbagboy, pickemgenius and Coppélia all chime in with comments about Earwig's

silence

, and the folly of lynching lurkers.

I did?

Lurking is a mafia sign, especially if he's made 11 posts in other games

You've skipped ahead to post 152. I already said that all of you (except Khelvaster) seemed to get the point by that stage. The post of yours I meant was post 146, where you supported the prod and said

I'm itching to hear from him, about everything that's happened.

Focusing exclusively on his

failure

to post. If you had any thoughts about the points I'd made about Earwig's actual posts, you chose not to share them but to go along with the general flow.

[Ripley]

On the subject of d8p--has anyone but d8p said anything in defence of his apparent collaboration/veiled scumtalk with MightyFireball?

MightyFireball was the one who defended it, in post 215:

As to the first, I really don't think this is scummy, more of a coincidence. We both happened to be on at the same time, so we made several posts responding to each other.

Maybe d&p has as well, I can't remember. I admit I'm getting slightly lost amidst the huge amount of microanalytical posting that's been going on.

[Ripley]

I've been puzzled by d&p's posting over the past few days.

There were quite a few posts made last Sunday and Monday directly concerning d&p himself:

Post 197 (MF) is a substantial post devoted entirely to an analysis of d&p's own posts.

Post 207 - this is where Earwig first raises the idea of MF and d&p making veiled scum communications. Several of the following posts refer to this, Post 218, by Khelvaster, I'd have expected especially to be of great interest to d&p, suggesting as it does that a vig should kill d&p if MF turned up scum.

How does d&p react to all this? He decides to postpone any response until after he has been through the entire game, post by post. Aimee had already done this, in a giant post that went back over posts 47-164. Many people had already responded to her post in detail. I will confess here to being somewhat less than thrilled to find d&p using Aimee's post as the basis for yet more massively detailed analysis of these early pages. The terrible prospect of a third player using d&p's analysis for a basis of a still

more

detailed analysis seemed quite real, and I seriously doubt that I would have the stamina for that.

This process takes him some days, and the posts he really should be dealing with become more and more out of date. He seems at one stage to acknowledge the problem:

Can't help wondering whether I'm falling further behind or catching up.

.. but carries on regardless, working his way through every single word of Aimee's megapost until post 129, at which point, for reasons not given, he abruptly abandons the exercise. (This is shortly before the bandwagon on Earwig got going.)

He finally comments on the issue of collaboration with MF, but apparently only does so because the issue has just been raised again:

I find it ridiculous that I've been called on again to knock this down, after MF already has.

I don't think he has ever dealt with post 197. Maybe there are some responses buried in his long posts.

d&p reaches a conclusion and decides to vote beanbagboy. His reasoning:

BBB: for all the times he has just made stuff up about players. He clearly thinks he doesn't need to read. He has thrown all sorts of aspersions around and hasn't backed down when challenged. He has consistently misrepresented what other people have said about him and themselves. He has mixed up the chain of events to defend himself or his arguments. Kab said he thought he was overeager. Eager players read, imo.

I would have found it considerably more helpful to have been given a summary list of all the occasions where d&p thinks BBB has committed these crimes. Just a few words on each. It looks as if I have to go through his posts, wading through unrelated material, to find them.

I'm aware of two possible examples: the whole "BBB singles out Coppelia for voting Khelvaster" thing and all the related subplots about whether Khelvaster was inconsistent and whether third votes are scummy. All this has been covered exhaustively. Maybe that's why I feel it may have been blown out of proportion. And this:

Also incidentally, maybe this is through lack of sleep, but when did MightyFireBall start the wagon? If he did, I apologise

He didn’t. BBB just made it up.

I've tried to find what this was about. I think d&p means where BBB says this:

Even more incriminating, IMO. He asks MF for a reason, MF points out he started the frigging wagon, and d8p says that that's not good enough. Nuh-unh. That doesn't fly.

I think what happened here is BBB misinterpreting MF's post 119:

D8p, I did indeed make the first analysis of Khelvaster's post in which he incriminated pickemgenius.

If not, could somebody please tell me what BBB is supposed to have made up? And actual references to the other places where he's cast aspersions, misrepresented people, made stuff up etc?

A couple of final thoughts:

Aimee: your analysis has been very useful, but can I suggest that if you do similar analyses in future, you put the post number at the beginning of each paragraph? It would barely take any more time, and would make the material massively easier to manage later.

I think there's a danger, in this game, that we'll not only miss the wood for the trees, but we'll be so busy microanalysing the leaves we won't even see the trees.

[Ripley]

:goodposting: Also, I don't know if that was intentional, but you refer to d8p as d&p everytime.

Ouch, you're right. Apologies, d8p. The annoying thing is a couple of times I typed an 8 and actually erased it because I'd managed to convince myself it was wrong. And at the start I thought Shanba was Shariba. I need to change my font size or something...

[Ripley]

@Khel- fine. Based on what? Sum up your cases to me, the ones built on something other than your feelings. Doesn't have to be lengthy, just a summation based on facts and reasoning will do.

This is just what I'd like to see too.

[Ripley]

HungryJoe, I think you've blurred the boundaries between your two new games a bit (BM? Faldo?) unless, of course, I've wandered into one of those fascinating parallel universe situations.

[Ripley]

I'm doing a PBPA and I'm up to page three

Please,

please

, tell me this is a joke....

[Ripley]

Ripley... what is so... horrible about that? Do you not want me to do a PBPA? Is that too slow?

I wasn't being entirely serious, BBB. I said earlier that I was starting to buckle under the sheer weight of detailed analysis that's happened in this game, and my comment to you just now was just referring back to that. Of course you should do a PBPA if you find it useful, and I know others find them useful. (But I'd really appreciate it if you'd summarise your conclusions at the end.)

I had hoped to make a longer post than this will turn out to be, because I won't be around much between now and Wednesday. However I just spent an hour on a newbie game, so I can only make a couple of quick points:

I didn't think there was anything suspicious about the posts between d8p and MightyFireball. I've several times got into an exchange of posts with a player who happened to be online at the time. Is it only Khelvaster who has supported Earwig in finding this suspicious? Anyone else agree?

MightyFireball is a player that seems to be attracting a lot of attention without ever having done anything that stuck out as scummy to me personally. So I've never had much to say about him. I'm going to reexamine his posts when I have time.

shadyforce has gone very, very quiet. Nothing from him in a week now except an "I'm busy" post.

I'll keep track of the game but as I said, won't have much chance to post till Weds at the earliest.

[Ripley]

Good to see you, Patrick, and welcome to the baffling world of Tapioca.

I'll be making a start on catching up with all my current games later on today.

[Ripley]

Mod, can you tally up all the FoS and votes so far

(Waits happily for the mod to tally up all the FOSes...)

Could definitely do with a vote count though. I have Khelvaster on 4 and Earwig on 5, but even if correct these include votes by shadyforce and Kabenon. Does a replacement cause an automatic unvote? If not those old votes are still in place as far as I can see.

[Ripley]

I had another look at Earwig's posts today. It's true that he's added very little content, especially in the context of this very high content game, and while I want to give him every chance, I couldn't find anything to justify unvoting, even giving him some credit for bringing something new to the table (the d8p/MF veiled communication theory).

And yet - there's something worrying me about the whole Earwig bandwagon, even though I started it myself. It can best be explained by referring back to one of the first Minis I played here. Fairytale Mafia. This was a game where several players started making really huge posts as early as page 3, making the game very hard work to read and to follow. And the players who weren't involved in these large posts looked sloppy by comparison, even though they might have been posting a normal amount

for them

. There's a danger in this situation that those people will just give up, and that game had the highest fallout rate I've ever seen, with half the original players dropping out on the first day.

Earwig could be in a similar situation here, and if he is a protown player struggling to keep up with what has been a fantastically high-content and detailed game, he's become a soft target. Scum pick out these people like lions circling a herd of water buffalo and singling out the weakest for a kill.

I'm aware it must sound weird for me to be raising this argument about a player who's been my own prime suspect for a good while now. But while I pointed out things I found suspicious in his early posts, there isn't anything in the subsequent posts I'd put under that category. He continues, though, to be guilty of lurking, excusemaking and low content. I agree with Patrick that some quality input is crucial from him at this stage.

[Ripley]

Unvote: Earwig

Coppélia hasn't posted anywhere for a week now. Does anybody have any info about her absence? There's nothing in the V/LA thread.

[Ripley]

Asking him to Vig MFB is a great idea. I never thought of that--it's win-win for us. MFB is one of the least contributing people here, so he would be a good-for-town nightkill. If Earwig is scum and MFB is townie, then we kept someone useful from dying.

I don't think MFB is one of the least contributing people, though I know a lot of people are suspicious of him. While you can't go by post count alone, it's a reasonable guide. MFB has made 43 posts, and they're by no means a string of one liners and irrelevant asides. Compare this to Shanba (18 posts). Coppélia (24) Aimee (24). Yes, even Aimee; one megapost shouldn't buy you a free pass for ever, and she's not had much to say in the last couple of weeks. pickemgenius has 37 posts and on average they say a lot less than MFB's.

Whether MFB is the most suspicious is a different question altogether. After Earwig's claim I started to go back through everyone's posts looking at each set in isolation, to get a clear idea of who suspected who. I see I left the most difficult for last and never got around to tackling d8p and Khelvaster, but I have a few notes on everyone else. I'll try to finish this exercise and I'll post the results if they seem useful but so far it seems exactly the same names keep cropping up as suspects: MFB, Khelvaster, d8p, with only beanbagboy otherwise attracting any real suspicion.

I'm actually not sure I agree with directing Earwig to kill at all. Still thinking about this.

I agree that Earwig is not the play and also that we need to hear from him who he suspects.

Still no news of Coppélia?

[Ripley]

BBB, you can sing the praises of those other people as much as you like, but with Khelvaster suggesting he be vigkilled as "one of the least contributing people here", it's entirely relevant to post if I don't think the evidence supports that. (And I made it very clear that I wasn't going by post count alone but also by content.)

I wonder if your real objection is that I've, however slightly, questioned the spotless reputations of Aimee and Coppélia?

And also, I wasn't saying I would pick MFB, personally, I think the town would. I guess he does seem scummy, but I don't know.

Which is actually pretty close to what I think about MFB myself; a vague sense that he's been one of the scummier people but without any real conviction or hard evidence to back it up. Maybe I just think it because so many people have said so...

MFB is my vig choice, coz I keep wobbling on d8p. And there's not anyone else majorly suspicious.

Didn't you just say you thought the town would pick him, but personally you didn't know if you would? Did you make your mind up while writing the post?

[Ripley]

Firstly, some people have said that a powerole should use their own good judgement and that allowing the town to direct him would allow scum to manipulate the outcome. I agree that this applies for a cop, but a vig shot is like an extra lynch for the town.

This last thought is interesting. Suppose we had the option of lynching two people at the end of the day. Should we take it? Of course, the vig kill gives us more complex options, in that we could make the vig kill dependent on the result on the lynch. Or we could make the

target

of the vig kill dependent on it.

The arguments Patrick makes in Post 447 against giving Earwig a free hand seem sound to me.

I find it hard to make my mind up about Khelvaster. To a large extent he's been given leeway as a newbie. People have said he can't expect any more leeway, But you allow someone to play the newbie card at all, it seems to me contradictory to take it away from them after they've played it two or three times. They're still a newbie, and if they're Khelvaster, they're a kind of player who doesn't hold back in making suggestions that may be controversial. In a way, it would be more suspicious if someone

stopped

acting like a newbie, since it would imply it had been an act in the first place.

Patrick thinks Khelvaster is trying to discredit Earwig in the scenarios he created, and it's possible, but it's also possible he hasn't thought them through clearly, any more than Earwig himself thought clearly about the "I can prove I'm the vig" comment. I agree with Patrick that Earwig sounds genuine, though it's disappointing that in his post-claim posts he's continued to be so vague and to offer excuses rather than make any actual points.

[Ripley]

Also, when exchanging a cop for a scum, the town gets a bit more, because (unless it's some SK kind of role) scum don't live in a bubble and can lead you to other scum. When you catch a scum, you also get the trail they've left in their posts, and the info from what other people have said about them, voting history etc etc. Which can be quite a way towards catching the next one, especially in a game with heavy content.

BTW I completely agree that we can't lynch an uncountered cop. Maybe I'm being gullible, but I'm inclined to believe him at the moment.

[Ripley]

I'm pretty sure Khelvaster is scum but I'd rather we don't rush to lynching him before we decide exactly what we want Earwig to do tonight, if anything. We were in the middle of having that discussion before.

I agree with this, confirming evidence being Khelvaster's ignoring this thread since the counterclaim while posting elsewhere. (See, I told you I was gullible...)

[Ripley]

Unbelievable. I needed to take a 10 minute timeout before posting, I was so cross. I had a put a

lot

of time into this game. I think all of us had.

And he's just signed up for the next Mini Normal...

[Ripley]

I was actually looking at Khelvaster and his links to other people at the very moment of his apparent outing of his scum buddies, which unsettled me somewhat, and I didn't get back to it.

However, a few things I'd jotted down:

Shanba and Patrick both picked up on Khelvaster's trying to undermine Earwig's claim and either get him lynched today or set him up for a lynch tomorrow. This makes Earwig look very good and makes the other two look pretty good as well.

I never really understood BBB's change from “think Khel is being sincere, and I didn't really see much of a case against him” to “Khel is being weird now” 24 mins later with nothing from K in between.

Khelvaster's three suspects for most of the day were MF, d8p, Earwig, in that order, though earlier his first choice was pickem:

I'm looking at earwig, pickem, or fireball for scum.

Of those three, pickem seems strongest. Pickem went off against me only after Ripley did, so he wouldn't be accused of starting a bw.

This wasn't true; pickem "went off against him" immediately. I was only voting him randomly at the time. Khelvaster and pickem get into an argument, and Khelvaster says this:

I'm going to vote for you unless you have any defence to this--I don't see any at the moment, but it could just be me making a colossal error. I'll give you one chance.

pickengenius responds, saying basically what he's said before - "I voted you to get out of random voting" - and Khelvaster suddenly drops the entire thing, not even responding to this post, let alone following through his threat to vote.

pickemgenius left his vote on Khelvaster all day, with no apparent interest in other players.

If we find that MF is mafia, hopefuly a concerned vigilante will off d8p that night, and we will be left with just 1 scum to kill.

My agenda right now, until I am convinced otherwise, is a D1 lynching of MF, a D2 lynching of d8p, and a D3 lynching of Earwig.

A couple of attempts at organising multiple kills.

I hadn't got as far as drawing any conclusions, and this review isn't really complete anyway, but thought I'd post what I had in case I get distracted again.

Mod

: are you going to replace Coppélia?

[Ripley]

d8P, I hope you understand you need to out your mason-buddy to have any chance of being believed.

I agree.

Earwig - why beanbagboy of all people? Here's the last thing Earwig said before the modkill:

Anyway, If I'm to understand, Shanba should be my NK. I'm cool with that, but what about Coppélia?

And I can't find a word in Earwig's previous posts about suspecting BBB.

[Ripley]

If the town just lynches me, we'll know that HJ's results are false, my fellow mason can claim safely later and scum's chances of hitting the doc are lower.

But we would not only have lynched a mason, we'd have wasted a precious chance to lynch scum. And as Shanba says, scum might counterclaim the other mason.

I've not had as long to think this through as I'd like, but on the whole I agree with Shanba; if d8p really has a mason partner then they should come forward.

But I don't think we need to lynch immediately. For one thing, I'm seriously worried about what Earwig might do tonight.

[Ripley]

I haven't played that many Minis, so I have a couple of questions.

First, can we be reasonably certain that there is just one scum left? Has anybody ever known there to be a Mini with a scum group of 4? It's hard to tell by looking at existing games because often the front page isn't fully updated when the game ends.

Second, both dead scum have the description "Mafia Goon". I'm guessing this implies the surviving scum has a different title. Examples I've copme across are "Mafia Godfather" and "Mafia Roleblocker". Are there any others in common use?

I think that Aimee is the most suspicious among the remaining players right now, because of her early on FoS/ no vote policy on both Earwig and d8p, as well as a few other things that I lost my notes on. =b

I'm quite suspicious of Aimee myself but don't understand what you're saying here. She did vote Earwig (who was town anyway) and I don't see where she FOS'ed d8p. After her monster post she FOS'ed Khelvaster, MF and BBB.

I'll post my thoughts about all the surviving players soon.

[Ripley]

Oh, I see, HJ was referring to Aimee FOS'ing d8p on Day 2. I don't think there's much to be learned from that actually. d8p was always going to get lynched if nobody spoke up to support him. I actually think we made a mistake in rushing the lynch, and judging by his self-vote, d8p agreed.

[Ripley]

OK, but let me stress this is off the top of my head and without a recent reread, and I might easily change my opinions.

Order of Suspicion

1. Aimee
2. pickemgenius
3. elailai
4. Shanba
5. HungryJoe

I thought Aimee's reputation relied far too much on that one enormous post, with relatively little content since. As we've seen from d8p, enormous posts aren't necessarily a sign of virtue. And I find them quite an obstacle when rereading. Also, by packing most of her content into that one post that revised the game up to that point, Aimee has largely avoided giving spontaneous reactions. I would much rather have a larger number of normal sized posts scattered throughout the thread; not only easier to read but you get much more of a current picture of what the writer is thinking.

I also thought Aimee kept herself pretty noncommittal about both Khelvaster and d8p.

pickemgenius is second on my list despite his having only one apparent suspect on Day 1, Khelvaster. This is because I can see several advantages to scum playing that way; placing a vote on a fellow scum for a weak reason, and leaving it there. Advantages: you don't have to think for the rest of the day, you can just keep saying "I'm happy with my vote". (And pickem's posts were really very sketchy). Your vote probably won't lead to a lynch, since most votes don't and you didn't have much of a case in the first place, but if the guy does end up being lynched, you look really good.

I don't really have a case against Coppelia/elailai, who is in third place by default. I remember Shanba picking up on Khelvaster trying to sabotage Earwig at the end of Day 1, and HungryJoe is surely confirmed as cop by now.

[Ripley]

SO that's it basiclly for khel. Still did this in notepad, and if anything isn't clear, ask please.

Nothing

is clear. Please could you summarise, in your own words, the reasons for putting players in the order of suspicion you did?

We also still need to hear from elailai. And Aimee, I know you've been occupied with your own defense, but I'd like to get your list of suspects also. None of the surviving players are people who stuck out to me as scummy, so I don't want to do anything hasty. Assuming 5 town and 1 scum, am I right in thinking we can only make one mistake? If we lynch wrong today, tomorrow we'd be down to 3 town and 1 scum - yes, I think at that point we need to lynch correctly or we lose. I haven't had time to reread thoroughly yet, so don't have much more to say at present.

[Ripley]

Mod

: elailai hasn't posted at all since the start of the day. Maybe time for a prod?

[Ripley]

Because there are six alive, would it be feasible to no lynch today? That could lead to a better end-game scenario (where there is three rather than four.) We would gain more information by tomorrow (perhaps another cop investigation if HJ stays alive, or information on the nightkill target's role.) And seeing as HJ and others seem suspicious of me, I am perfectly happy to be the investigation target.

I had thought about this as well, but I came to the conclusion that the chances of HJ remaining alive are tiny, and if he does so his results will not be useful. We'd be in just the same position tomorrow but with one fewer person contributing to the discussion. I suppose it's possible that we would gain from the 3-player ending, though the only real advantage would be if the scum killed someone who was under enough suspicion to have otherwise been lynched.

If we went through with this, would it be a good idea to have a mass claim tomorrow?

I'd assumed the rest of us were probably just plain townies so a mass claim would be pointless. You actually go on to say "the town did have a lot of power-roles" - so do you really think there are more? (I thought a doc, a cop and a vig sounded about right, myself.)

If a mass claim was likely to help, should we actually be thinking of doing it now?

After reading the whole thread, I am confused why people automatically assume that the final Mafia member is a Godfather. Yes, it is a possibility. It isn't set in stone, however. How do we know the final member of the Mafia isn't a roleblocker? I know this is unlikely - after all they would have to be pretty stupid not to block one of the two claimed power-roles on night 1 (who both functioned without being blocked).

You asked how we know there isn't a roleblocker, then answered your own question. It is wildly improbable that Earwig or HJ wouldn't have been blocked on Night 1. Even if the roleblocker wasn't able both to kill and to block, there was a goon alive to do the killing (d8p).

Ultimately, I don't think it is right to assume the final Mafia member is the Godfather, although I accept it is a likely possibility.

What I am prepared to accept is that, whether or not the final Mafia member is the Godfather, we will not be getting any further guilty results from our cop. So really, it doesn't matter.

Elailai. Again no read, but I find it unlikely that a Mafia Godfather (or other Mafia member) would basically lurk through not only day two, but day three so far.

Day 2 was extremely brief and elailai actually made several posts during it.

I found this from elailai in another thread:

From 16/6, I'll be incommunicado, as I'm going abroad. By 18/6 or 19/6 I should have access to internet again.

And he has indeed posted nowhere since Friday 15th.

[Ripley]

True. However, what are the main disadvantages of a no lynch at this stage? At the moment, I see almost none. The advantages are that there is a better endgame situation for the town, meaning that in the long-term we could be in a better situation.

You say "True", and then proceed to ignore everything you quoted. I gave a disadvantage of a no lynch: that we would end up in the same position tomorrow, but with one fewer townie alive to contribute to the discussion. And I said that I couldn't see the endgame position being better unless the scum kill a protown player suspicious enough to be a lynch candidate (which I think they can avoid, regardless of who the last scum actually is). Would you expand on what you mean by a "better endgame situation"?

This was the section that sounded horrible from my perspective

. According to you, it doesn't matter whether or not the final member of the Mafia is a Godfather, because HJ will get an innocent. THIS IS WRONG. If the final member of the Mafia is not a godfather, then a guilty result will occur. So really, it does matter.

It seems starkly obvious to me that with the doc dead, if there is any chance of the cop getting a guilty result on the surviving scum then the cop will be nightkilled. Am I missing something here?

Personally, I was quite surprised by Ripley, here - I didn't get the "completely always pro-town" message that I usually get from him.

These remarks follow my comments about elailai, which are factual statements. Could you clarify what you found less than completely pro-town about them? Or, if you were referring back to something else, what was it? I can't reply unless you are specific.

Are you going to respond to HJ's post 661?

I notice that neither HJ nor Ripley have mentioned anything about my case on Shanba, and about how I have found him to be pro-town.

Well, as I had already said, I thought Shanba was pro-town myself, and I didn't have anything to add or dispute. His focusing on the d8p/Khelvaster partnership, and his attack on Khel after Earwig's claim, make him look an unlikely scum. I'm more concerned about pickengenius and elailai than about Shanba.

[Ripley]

Bah, we're getting nowhere with this. I don't know what to do anymore to spice this game up, I really don't have that much mroe to say. Isn't there anyone out there who has some obscure knowledge or keen insight to add to one side or the other? =\

pickemgenius is away, Shanba has connection problems, elailai has not posted Day 3, has been prodded at least once and may be replaced. That only leaves 3 of us so it's not surprising nothing much is happening.

I had another look at pickem's posts yesterday. I didn't see anything much that hadn't been commented on before, but I'll summarise my thoughts anyway:

1. A few early random votes, then sticks to a vote on Khelvaster.
2. Says little or nothing about other players, and actually doesn't really say very much about Khelvaster, repeating many times that he voted him "to get out of the random voting stage".
3. A lot of exchanges with Khelvaster.
4. High percentage of his posts are brief and contain no useful content.
5. Opposed directing Earwig in his kill choice.
5. His two long posts today consisted entirely of quotes with unfamilar formatting. I found them almost unreadable. He provided some brief explanations of his suspicions in his own words when requested. Note: he has elailai at the botom of his list (apart from HJ), solely on the basis of HJ's innocent result on elailai (which may not be meaningful).

[Ripley]

I don't really have much useful to say. The main point in his favor is his keeping his vote against Khelvaster right through Day 1, but I already expressed some reservations about that (Post 637). It's suspicious how determinedly he's avoided posting his opinions of other players; even when we were down to the last 6 he tried to get around this with huge posts containing nothing but quotes from other people.

HungryJoe said "I just think that pickem made some solid points early in the game, although I could be influenced by my like for his terse interjections. =)" - maybe, HJ, you could put aside your taste for terse interjections for a moment, and evaluate just how solid those points were?

As far as I can see Aimee has still avoided replying to HJ's post 661, nor has she clarified exactly what it was that caused her to question her view of me as protown in Post 662.

[Ripley]

Ah, sorry. It just clicked. I take it now you mean we wouldn't be getting any more guilty results because HJ would probably be NKed. I took it to mean that basically you were thinking we wouldn't get a guilty even if the final mafioso wasn't a Godfather. Miscommunication, sorry.

OK, but in that case it sounds as if you thought I'd made a mistake, whereas what came across was that you thought my comments were actually antitown. Which is a bit different.

Could we get everybody's views on:

1. No-lynching.
2. Role-claiming.

Oh, and welcome, Battle Mage.

[Ripley]

Aimee: so you're so convinced by your own case on pickem that you aren't even going to look at Coppelia/elailai/BM? (Or me, for that matter?)I realise that there's little or nothing from the last two, but I'm a bit surprised that after taking the trouble to do a detailed case on Shanba and pickem, you're just leaving it at that.

[Ripley]

@Ripley-hi, its been a long time since i've had opportunity to participate in game with you

Hello Battle Mage. Yes, I think the game we played together, Open 9, was one of your very first here. You seem to have made quite a name for yourself since then!

[Ripley]

I'm requesting that the deadline be removed because we've had absolutely no content from Battle Mage yet. His predecessor elailai made a few brief posts on Day 2, about masons and tactics, and before that there was a long gap between Coppélia's last post and her replacement by elailai. You actually have to go back to May 25th for the last post with any content from Coppélia. I don't think this role should be allowed to get away with a further day of not posting content.

[Ripley]

Mod:

please can we have a votecount?

[Ripley]

I agree with Patrick's comments. I'll just add my congratulations to the scum and to Shanba in particular, and assure Aimee I don't blame her at all for her choice.