Mini 455 - Mafia in Theoville - Game Over who won?


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Post Post #12 (isolation #0) » Sat Jun 02, 2007 11:19 am

Post by Guardian »

Hey guys! It's been a month but I still get really excited at the start of games :D. I hope this one is enjoyable for everyone!

The games I have been in all are really active and got out of the random stages early... I take complete credit for this ;). Let's hope that happens here, too.

Voting for MeMe is tempting as in my opinion her name just begs to be voted for, but I wouldn't want to start a wagon on the likely best player if she is town :).

Also, if I was into random OMGUSing, I would vote YagamiLight. I am not though - sorry for taking your number!

YogurtBandit raises a very good question, Streeflo, how is YB's random vote at all good content and worthy of switching a random vote?

vote: Streeflo
seems as good a place as any to start.

Come on people, let's find the scum :).
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Post Post #17 (isolation #1) » Sat Jun 02, 2007 11:55 am

Post by Guardian »

Adel wrote:nah, too many smilies for my taste.
Heresy!

Thanks, Nanook.

And you're welcome, YB :mrgreen:.
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Post Post #22 (isolation #2) » Sat Jun 02, 2007 1:40 pm

Post by Guardian »

Coultn't sleep at all, so I thought I'd post. Often, ChaosOmega, new scum will just vote without saying anything, like you did. People might get suspicious of you for that (I am a wee bit); I think it's better to just say that your vote is random in the future so people don't have a reason to jump on. My 1/50 of a dollar ;).
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Post Post #36 (isolation #3) » Sat Jun 02, 2007 9:38 pm

Post by Guardian »

Being at lynch -1 at lyol and having to convince the town that even though you played scummy all game your wagon is all scum and that you aren't the play: no pressure.
Being (random?) voted by MeMe: had I seen that before I went to sleep last night I don't think I would have xD.
YagamiLight wrote:Yay he said sorry for taking my number... Your forgiven. :D
Thanks YagamiLight ;).
Erotomachia wrote:Less than random? What would that be?
Adel, is your reason for voting me that I use smiley faces? Is it my page one vote? Are you just following MeMe? Please do tell.

Nanook, I get what you mean, I didn't explicitly state my logic but it was pretty obvious. I got a lot of suspicion in another game for making a joke vote day one though, and I felt that it was completely unwarranted. After waking up, I can see the humor there... It's not like I'm sure Streeflo is scum, but I think there is legitimate reason to be suspicious of that unvote and it is still as good a vote as any at the time being.
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Post Post #43 (isolation #4) » Sun Jun 03, 2007 2:08 am

Post by Guardian »

Streeflo, the legitimate reasons are twofold. In your second post you made no indication that you were joking. Then, you accepted a random vote as "good content". I don't believe that a town member would, in seriousness, accept a random vote as good content at all. You then claimed later that that post was a joke... which it may well have been, but if it was not made with a joking intent and you saying it was a joke was merely a coverup later, accepting YB's rather insubstantial post as a reason to unvote him shows that you don't really care where your vote is. That being said... you may well have been joking. Just because this came up on the first page of the game doesn't mean that I am going to discard it completely, however - all posts a player makes are important.

Adel, it's interesting that you brought up that thread posted by me. I am still not sure how I feel on the subject; it is appealing to not provide reasons in some senses, but it seems very bad in others. In this case, for example, you could just wait for me to post a few more times, look for something in common between the posts, and point it out as being scummy. In fact, that is pretty much what you said you were going to do, in less words. Then you said that the chance of this actually happening was slight. Being actively suspicious is great, but you are not giving me or anyone else much to go on.

I think voting without providing a reason is OK, but not providing a reason when one is asked for makes the vote seem quite arbitrary, especially when you say that you had a good reason for the vote.
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Post Post #48 (isolation #5) » Sun Jun 03, 2007 5:21 am

Post by Guardian »

YogurtBandit, by yours, do you mean ChaosOmega's? Or do you mean Ertomachia's vote on ChaosOmega?

Nanook, the logic "if you are random voting, then say so" can most definitely be applied to Streeflo, but I did mean for it to apply to ChaosOmega's posts at the time.
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Post Post #61 (isolation #6) » Sun Jun 03, 2007 2:06 pm

Post by Guardian »

Some thoughts before I go to bed.
I still have no idea what I have done that is suspicious, but I am sure you will tell me in time... I don't like the vote of me, Nanook, obviously - does any player ever like being voted for? Someone posted in mafia about discussion about how as town you always know you are being lynched for BS reasons; I am near being lynched nor do I have great fear of being lynched today... But I am not being voted for bad reasons, I am being voted for reasons that afaik don't even exist.

MeMe, you are a legend and all and maybe you are just being all tricky by posting really short posts and helping the town... But while I do think voting without saying anything immediately is OK, posting without saying anything at all is a scum tell imo. I feel that content full posts are pro town because if every player makes content full posts then scum will eventually slip and be found out. By making short posts with one sentence, you are not really giving the town anything to go on in terms of discerning your allignment. I can't quite say this as articulately as I want to, but each townie enters into an understood agreement of posting at risk of being seen as scummy so that the scum will have to post and will be outed as being scummy. Your two posts without much content are very much lurkish and seem unhelpful to me.

Adel, I reiterate that if there is something to show that I am scum, it must be true now, not something you can invent sometime before 100 posts. Your map is very intersting and all (though not up to date), but you saying I have some scum tell when I am not scum and not even letting me respond to it is... not very pro town in my opinion.

It is more than a little fishy that YB has been patting me on the back so heavily... I like you, mate, but you have no reason at this point to be following me so closely ;).

Streeflo, I am willing to let the page one blip go... for now...
unvote
.

Adel, Streeflo, YB, and MeMe are all attractive targets at this point.
vote: YB
for the curious Omega push and for associating with me.
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Post Post #63 (isolation #7) » Sun Jun 03, 2007 2:45 pm

Post by Guardian »

NanookTheWolf wrote:Again this could have been something obviously mistakened for all I know, and if you truly are the cop, well then I apologize.
Well, there goes my first attempt at breadcrumbing. The whole point of it is that if I ever have to claim later in the game, I can prove that I am really the cop and not just scum making it up. Thanks Nanook.............................................................................................................................................
If you were scum, you would not have pointed this out, just night killed me. I must conclude that you are town but OMGUS :(. Why, as a townie, would you give that information to the scum? Maybe it popped out to you, maybe someone else noticed it... but the whole town definitely did not. Seriously.... Also OMGIS if it was so easy to see :x. Sorry guys... Nanook, seriously, why though?......

ps... this is not just a coincidence... there are three other posts where cop appear like come on people, etc....

wow, what a bad note to go to bed on.
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Post Post #117 (isolation #8) » Mon Jun 04, 2007 2:19 pm

Post by Guardian »

Hey, I just got back from Spain! I am slightly jet lagged from the eight and a half hour flight...


Nevertheless, some scattered thoughts:
theopor_COD wrote:
I'll check the activity levels of a couple and send prods as neccessary. It's only been a couple of days but discussion has been so good wouldn't want anyone getting behind. On that note I'm delighted with the activity levels, seems the enforced deadlines are doing some good.
Nah, it isn't the deadlines, it is me being in the game. Trust me on this ;).

On a darker note...

Does me being outed have a silver lining?

Well, I mostly think it sucks for many obvious reasons, but three positive things I could think of are:
We can discuss who my investigation target might be.
If a doc exists, then he does indeed know who to protect.
We have, imo, 2 very likely townies, a cop is likely in any setup and I am the cop (though I am not as of now confirmed) and Nanook from (albeit very foolishly imo) revealing my breadcrumbs and not just waiting to NK me.

Also, there are too many scum (and scummy townies) in this town for us to only have three mafia members. Yet, apparently we do have three and Theo's wording makes me strongly believe that there is no SerialKiller. This is exactly why I disagree with MeMe that townies have inherent townness, as dogs have inherent dogness...

Confirm Vote:
YB for following me when he had no reason to AND for suggesting that we have both two docs + two cops AND for ignoring MeMe's question AND for making spammy posts that try to appear townlike.

and a fistfull of
FOSs:
(roughly in order of worst to least bad)
Adel for the completely convoluted me + nanook scenario, AND for still not mentioning my supposed scum tell even when asked to repeatedly, AND for thinking voting someone who is not checking the site will make them post, AND for saying she thinks that the mafia has a godfather this early for no reason AND for assuming that me as a scum cop would not provide a true innocent result.
MeMe for not really posting much content. I appreciate that you wanted to explain that you missed Nanook outing me but posting "now that is interesting" doesn't really count as a post for me. And for telling YB you voted him because you had a big heart doesn't do much for me either. Also, asking about a post restriction in a mini normal?? Adel I understood, but you know better than that - you run the queue for heaven's sake!
DogMom for also having much words but not much content AND for FOS'ing me and Nanook, who I believe should seem most likely to be town at this point. Maybe it was just because you were tired, but FOS ing the claimed cop, and the almost sure townie who outed me, does verry little to make me think you are town.
Nekka for his incredibly hard to understand/accept post, even when I thought that I interpreted what he was trying to say correctly. His prior post, also, strikes me the wrong way.
Nekka-Lucifer wrote:If he was mafia, he wouldn't agree (Guardian) because if he dies, he loses... Is that an honest sacrifice he wishes to make... Also, if something comes up on his NK (If there is one) then I have a suspicion...
And a Finger of Slapping to Nanook for outing me AND then somehow blaming me for his using of my slightly WIFOM logic AND for blaming me for his outing of me, also for his claimed confusion about the day start of the game. I am very frustrated at Nanook and believe his posts and actions are not helping the town at all... but I think that his role must be town for my reason in my last post... Nanook, no hard feelings, I am not trying to personally attack you or put you down... but get in the game sir :D. I am disappoined because I am sure you are capable of better ;).

Even though it seems that he has a few too many scum buddies, I am still quite happy with my vote on YB... YB, please do answer MeMe's question, and start searching for scum if you are in fact town.

For your convenience:
MeMe wrote:
YogurtBandit wrote:Voting without saying anything is a Scumtell.
Really? Please back this up if you can.
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Post Post #122 (isolation #9) » Mon Jun 04, 2007 3:01 pm

Post by Guardian »

Could nanos possibly be a lyncher?? I don't think so, from post one... I don't understand the doggedness, though, with good reason to believe Nanook is town... Anyways, in case there was any doubt as to whether I was breadcrumbing:
Guardian, in his first post, wrote:
C
ome
o
n
p
eople, let's find the scum :).
Guardian, in a later post, wrote:but I did mean for it to apply to
C
haos
O
mega's
p
osts at the time.
Guardian, immediately before he was outed, wrote:Adel, Streeflo, YB, and MeMe are all attractive targets at this point.
vote: YB
for the
c
urious
O
mega
p
ush and for associating with me.
And for those unfamiliar with breadcrumbing, it is a tactic power roles can use that allows for them to claim more convincingly later in the game, by showing the other players that they are not just scum fakeclaiming by making up the role on the spot. In fairness, I suppose scum could theoretically breadcrumb a fake claim from the beginning of the game... I haven't read a game where that happened, but like I said I guess it could be done.
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Post Post #126 (isolation #10) » Mon Jun 04, 2007 3:21 pm

Post by Guardian »

Nanos referred to nanosauromo; he unfailingly continues to pursue you, his random vote iirc, even when there is good reason not to imo.
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Post Post #128 (isolation #11) » Mon Jun 04, 2007 3:29 pm

Post by Guardian »

Adel wrote:BTW, I hope you had a good flight, and I will totally understand if you are lagged and need a couple of days to respond to all of this.

...

I respect Guardian's FoS, and I think it would be really great if the other players would try to respond to his points as fully as I have tried to.
Adel, thanks for that first part, I really appreciate when people like you try and be civil even when we are playing a game in which the object is for each faction to kill the other(s). I had a pretty good flight, kinda empty so I was able to lay down across four seats and try to sleep, though I did not succeed. Thanks again for asking!

I probably don't need a few days; I definitely need a good night's sleep though ;).

I also appreciate your second point as I think lengthy discussion and responses and etc. are good for
the game
town :D.
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Post Post #140 (isolation #12) » Mon Jun 04, 2007 5:15 pm

Post by Guardian »

Two things:

Firstly
, I should be in bed now, but I am not. That will be remedied immediately after this post.

Secondly
, being objective as possible, your scenario still seems ludicrous to me. Nanook having planned this exact scenario, and then PM ing me when the mod said that all that he did was not specifically disallow night PM roles to PM pregame, and then Nanook PMing me in less than an day and me getting the PM and agreeing to it while I was on vacation in Spain, and me being confident enough and clever enough to breadcrumb in such a way that Nanook could easily find it, and Nanook being scum but acting so perfectly as he is doing right now.... I really, really, don't buy it.

It is possible, just like me getting a 1000$ check in the mail tomorrow is possible...

I see one of the only upsides of Nanook outing me as us getting him as a very likely townie in the process. Your theory seems to be grasping at straws... but maybe, and this is a big maybe, this is you just trying to reason everything through in a way that makes sense to you.... Do you at least see why I think you coming up with this is scummy?

Fyi, I learned what breadcrumbing was by reading lots of games (maybe two or three instance of breadcrumbing came up in 20-30 games) and in one in particular the cop breadcrumbed and that was crucial to the town winning... Or at least it came up near the endgame, I am not 100% certain the town won. Anyways, I thought it was a good strategy and I figured I would try it. Your whole scenario seems... crazy to me. About the only town like thing I draw from your scenario is that you aren't calling for me, the claimed cop, to be lynched, to test your theory....

Yeah, that's me picking option A.
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Post Post #144 (isolation #13) » Tue Jun 05, 2007 2:57 am

Post by Guardian »

MeMe wrote:
Guardian wrote:This is exactly why I disagree with MeMe that townies have inherent townness, as dogs have inherent dogness...
I didn't say they have inherent townness -- I said they needn't worry about appearing town. Being middle-of-the-road is my preference so that I'm not obviously
anything
-- I don't
want
to be "cleared." That way, I'm a less attractive night kill target and the doctor probably won't be tempted to protect me. It's a good strategy that keeps me alive without wasting our resources -- I might get investigated, but that's cool, as I likely won't have been killed and the cop can use that knowledge rather than having wasted an investigation on someone who died overnight. Get the picture?
OK, I get that, and that is a legitimate way to play the game. As town, I tend to try and show my alignment through lots of posting, though I should probably consider toning that down, as it
is
less useful when you get a power role :x.
MeMe wrote:
Guardian wrote:Also, asking about a post restriction in a mini normal?? Adel I understood, but you know better than that - you run the queue for heaven's sake!
You know, Guardian -- sometimes strategy is subtle. Asking about a post restriction isn't the same thing as thinking it's probable...but hearing the reply to that suggestion could've been interesting before you went and, basically, told Nekka-Lucifer not to consider it.

Seriously. When you read my posts, try to keep in mind that I'm an intelligent human being who understands this game -- see if looking at things that way helps you follow what I'm doing.
I considered that for a second, but I then decided to call you out on it because I could envision MeMe-scum asking Nekka that to try to confuse him and paint him as scum off of the reply. Thinking it over, I should have waited to call you out until he replied. I will consider waiting until people respond to you before calling you out in the future for questions or comments that I consider scummy. :oops:.
MeMe wrote:Also, Guardian, if NanookTheWolf is town, he has just as much right to be irritated with you as you do with him. You going out of your way to say "I think he's town because he wouldn't have done that" just paints a target on his back if he
is
. See, telling everyone "hey -- I probably won't be willing to lynch so and so because I think they're town" means that scum won't want that person around. They prefer to leave people alive who might be lynched (which goes back to my first point)...so vocalizing belief in others isn't what town should be doing at this point -- save that for endgame.

Town are looking for scum. If you think you've identified town -- great, but keep a lid on it unless they're about to be lynched.
The thing about Nanook is that his actions are so scummy yet I see him as town, and I felt I had to articulate that. In my longish post, notice that I mostly just drew attention to those most scummy to me, and didn't mention the other players that much... Really, the only reason I think Nanook is town is because he outed me, and even that is slightly WIFOM logic. After that, he could be seen as very scummy...

An interesting thing that I note is that DogMom also chastised me about this, and then said that she couldn't see Nanook-scum or Guardian-scum :roll:.
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Post Post #145 (isolation #14) » Tue Jun 05, 2007 3:40 am

Post by Guardian »

After a good night's sleep, I will now address Adel's counterpoints, as promised...
Adel wrote:
Guardian wrote:and a fistfull of FOSs: (roughly in order of worst to least bad)
Adel for the completely convoluted me + nanook scenario,
Which is worth considering. There is a big contradiction between Nanook being clever enough to pick up on your claim, and the sloppy way he reacted to it. I was searching for a simple explanation for it, and came up with that. It didn't make since for him to out you if he was town, and it didn't make sense for him to out you if only he was mafia. It only made sense for him to "out" you as cop if you are both mafia. And it still does make sense to a degree, but I am not confident enough in my theory due to my inexperience (I've never seen a day 2, keep in mind) to buy it unless a couple experienced players start to agree with it.
I think I've addressed this.
Adel wrote:
Guardian wrote:AND for still not mentioning my supposed scum tell even when asked to repeatedly,
I thought that horse was dead. I find it interesting that you pick up on this while ignoring the four (or five?) or so other players that have done the same thing.
I didn't pick up on what you thought my scumtell was until Streeflo mentioned it! Where exactly did you tell us what it was? There have been maybe one or two players that acted similarly, imo, and yours was the most prolonged case.
Adel wrote:
Guardian wrote:AND for thinking voting someone who is not checking the site will make them post,
It should make Chaos Omege more likely to post if he is under pressure when he does get back to the site.
People who haven't checked the site in a few days will post when they get back, period. Whether there is a vote on them or not... Your vote appeared and appears to me like an easy vote on a lurker.
Adel wrote:
Guardian wrote:AND for saying she thinks that the mafia has a godfather this early for no reason
A hunch based upon the numbers of townies, and while I haven't read alot of games it seems to me that Godfather's are fairly common and totally screw up the utility of cop investigations, which was the context of my statement
Ok, a godfather being in the game is not so far fetched... This is more of a null point; I disagree that we should assume it but you thinking there is one isn't necessarily scummy... Though you could be scum and
know for sure
that there is a godfather in the game, and be bringing it up so it seems like you helped out.
Adel wrote:
Guardian wrote:AND for assuming that me as a scum cop would not provide a true innocent result.
If I understood that comment I would reply to it. Please rephrase.
Ok, you (and other people, to be fair...) have used this same line of logic: "Guardian may be a cop, but I will not trust that he is until he provides us with a confirmed investigation result." What exactly do you want here? Me to investigate someone, say they are town, and for us to lynch them and check it? If all you want is an innocent result and them to say, yeah I'm innocent, that is also horrible for town for reasons MeMe outlined, and is not really confirmed in any way. Or will you only be satisfied should I be so lucky as to hit scum?

Either way, a scum fake claiming cop can do this so easily! He could point out one of his partners and lead a successful bus to get confirmed, he could reveal that one of the scummier townies is actually townie... The mafia in this game (barring millers or a very doubtful SK) have
complete knowledge
of everyone's cop-shown alignment!

That is why you wanting an investigation result does very little for me in terms of thinking you have good reason to be suspicious of me.
Adel wrote:I respect Guardian's FoS, and I think it would be really great if the other players would try to respond to his points as fully as I have tried to.
:goodposting:

If I had two votes one would more than likely be on Adel, but YB still seems like a better candidate at present :?.
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Post Post #151 (isolation #15) » Tue Jun 05, 2007 9:11 am

Post by Guardian »

Adel, your idea is great! Now that we've directed any doc protection to me, and we are thinking about directing my cop investigation, why don't we direct all other possible power roles so that the scum can plan accordingly![/sarcasm] ...
Adel wrote:I think this idea will get a warmer reception than my last big idea
Sorry to burst your bubble, but seriously, I don't think that this is a good idea... letting the scum know where every single night choice is going is decidedly not pro town. Nice try though? Adel, voting for you is starting to look win-win...
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Post Post #154 (isolation #16) » Tue Jun 05, 2007 9:48 am

Post by Guardian »

Adel: Well, from all the games I've been in so far, and not one of them having any activity problems - in fact most of them people comment surprisedly about how ridiculously active the game is, while my play may have (many?) other problems I don't think it can been seen as a participation suppressor.

It got you to respond immediately didn't it? I don't have experience playing to back this up, but from reading games, scum squirm when targeted, whereas townies explain why their actions are founded and look for who the real scum might be. That last post reeks of the former and has nothing of the latter; you even present an explanation of why it is good to lurk... which it isn't...

I am not gunning for you, specifically, I am gunning for all people I see as likely scum candidates, especially when they post more scummy things.
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Post Post #157 (isolation #17) » Tue Jun 05, 2007 10:59 am

Post by Guardian »

And now the fun starts... I thought there was a possibility that YB was going to claim cop back when he suggested that there are both two docs and two cops.
YogurtBandit wrote:There is always the possiblity of there being
2 Cops
/ 2 Docs. <snip> The chances that we have at least 1 Cop and 1 Doc are good.
I didn't want to point YB out, as Nanook pointed me out, though...

At the beginning of the game, I asked the mod if I had confirmed sanity, and I do not. I would suggest that YB ask, too. I (no offense YB) don't think YB is tricky enough to counterclaim cop on day one... Although he did wait quite some time to do it, maybe he was considering it and decided to go for it :?.

Well... either YB is lying scum or we really do have two cops. I am undecided as to whether he is trying to make a counterclaim, and I always get a bad read when someone says that they don't care if they die or not... I don't want to take my vote off because YB very well may be the play for today, but I will be very suspicious of anyone who puts more votes on him at this point.

YB, fyi, it is extremely unlikely that there are both two docs and two cops. Two docs alone almost never happens. Two sane cops alone also almost never happens. What I have been pondering and pondering since YB made that telling post is how likely it is that there are two cops of varying sanity in this particular game...

Also, I ask that DogMom please answer Nanook's questions. I don't want her to let them slide now that YB has claimed.
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Post Post #158 (isolation #18) » Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:17 am

Post by Guardian »

Adel wrote:
Guardian wrote:It got you to respond immediately didn't it? I don't have experience playing to back this up, but from reading games, scum squirm when targeted, whereas townies explain why their actions are founded and look for who the real scum might be. That last post reeks of the former and has nothing of the latter; you even present an explanation of why it is good to lurk... which it isn't...
I am an active and confident player, you aren't going to intimidate me. I was pointing out that your style could intimidate other players. And it might.
I put a lot of effort into this thread, and the more work I put into it the more words you type painting me as scum for my efforts. As the target of my wild theory it made sense for you to be defensive, but when I make a post regard a scheme that I think would be pro-town and ask for comment, you dismiss it and add my attempt to your already OMGUSy list of my faults. Go ahead and mis-characterize me some more, but evaluate the vigkill scheme on its own merits and please drop the sarcasm so everyone else can have a clearer understanding of your argument.
Ok, it might. I am of the opinion that townies should always post as often and as much as they can no matter what though; that is exactly why lurking is scummy, it doesn't give the other players an opportunity to get a read on you. I tried to describe this earlier when responding to MeMe.

You have certainly put a lot of effort into this thread. I cannot help that I find both your theories incredibly scummy, though. YB's claim brings this to light. For example, say we decide that any potential doc will target me tonight, and I will investigate YB, and he will investigate me. That means that if YB is town he is likely dead tonight, because the scum will know that he is not protected. I would get an almost useless investigation, and a cop would be dead. If YB is mafia, he and his buddies can try and influence the vote and get him doc protected instead so that they can kill me.

Your vigging plan has similar flaws. If we tell the vig who to vig, the mafia can respond appropriately. Maybe by defending the vig candidate if he is a mafia member, maybe because they were planning to kill the same person that the vig is going to kill, maybe by no killing to try and make us think there is no vig, or whatever. They can also try and influence the vig kill just like they would try to influence any vote. In my opinion, trying to definitively give a target for power roles is a bad idea and is scummy. Even though any potential vigilante is not at this point accountable for acting as we would decide him to, if we give him a target to vig kill, the mafia can try and influence our decision and they can take that information into the night.

If all your grandoise plan is trying to do is have people give a runner up candidate as to who they think is scummy, and have that information "officially" there... well I think people should always play that way, and that calling it a vig kill target is bad for the above reasons.
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Post Post #164 (isolation #19) » Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:59 am

Post by Guardian »

Adel, your last two posts have been town like. I was going to mention that the first one was good when I responded to it, but I forgot to. The only bad thing about it is that you called my reasons OMGUSy, when I really have put some thought into them; earlier you said you respected my FOS, now you are calling it OMGUSy? What happened that made my reasons get bad?

That being said, I have observed two obvious town players at each other's throats for no good reason in another game I am currently in, so I am going to take a step back and relook at the case against you, as the center of it are your two theories...

My case seems good to me, though, as your theories are so... (no offense) bad, but it conceivably could just be you trying to reason things out.

I think had you not proposed those two theories, especially the first one, my read on you would be different. I cannot shake, however, the obvious scumminess of both theories in question.

I don't see how finding you scummy for your two major theory contributions to the game is at all making a mountain out of a mole hill. Also, the lurker thing was half a sentence of my post, and in this case I think you are the one over-exaggerating a minor point I made.
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Post Post #166 (isolation #20) » Tue Jun 05, 2007 12:00 pm

Post by Guardian »

Adel wrote:Y'all need to quit posting while I am typing!
:goodposting: lol!
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Post Post #167 (isolation #21) » Tue Jun 05, 2007 12:09 pm

Post by Guardian »

Adel wrote:That you didn't mention the possibility of there being a mafia roleblocker, the biggest hole in my plan, suggests that:
1. you are mafia and you know that there is a roleblocker
or
2. you are mafia and since there isn't a roleblocker you didn't think of the possibility.

You are wise enough in the ways of mafia to know of that possibility. I was actually worried that another player would point out that hole in my plan before you had a chance to respond.
<snip>
I am so happy with my vote now.
A mafia roleblocker would definitely hamper us directing the actions of the potential doc and cops, but how would a mafia roleblocker block a potential vig whose theoretical identity is unknown? Maybe it is you who knows something we don't? :?
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Post Post #180 (isolation #22) » Tue Jun 05, 2007 2:22 pm

Post by Guardian »

Streeflo, I quickly summarized my thoughts about him in this post right after I confirmed my vote on him.

Adel, yeah, cut out the theories, cut out calling my logic OMGUSy, but after my reread in which I mostly disregarded your theories you did seem less scummy. Whether disregarding them is the right thing to do, I am not sure.
I am still baffled about what you are talking about with a mafia role blocker blocking a potentially non existent vig. I didn't include the roleblocker in my cop/doc analysis part of it because that was not relevant to the vig example... and because I thought we were giving the scum enough help with our discussion.

I am still milling over what to think about YogurtBandit. I am leaning that he is in fact another cop... Maybe it is just because I like the guy :). I will continue to think it over before taking a definitive stance on the issue.

DogMom, you haven't posted, so maybe you would have already as soon as you get back, but I would definitely like you to answer Nanook's question, and not let it get lost in the clutter.
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Post Post #187 (isolation #23) » Tue Jun 05, 2007 3:56 pm

Post by Guardian »

Streeflo wrote:
Guardian wrote:And now the fun starts... I thought there was a possibility that YB was going to claim cop back when he suggested that there are both two docs and two cops.
If you thought he was gonna claim cop, why would you vote for him?
Good question, I thought someone might bring it up. I had two reasons:
Firstly, I was not sure if he was going to claim it, or was actually just thinking about claiming it and testing it with the two cop two doc thing. I actually wanted to get a wagon on him, because in other games when he was wagoned he let his alignment slip, and if he claimed anything but cop I would have been almost sure that he was a mafia thinking about fake claiming cop but then deciding not to.
Secondly, even though he has claimed cop, I am not sure that I buy his cop claim.

To be honest, his was not the most convincing or direct claim I have ever seen, and like I said (and maybe this is a bad read on my part, as I have not had it tested yet) I always feel that someone is scummy if they say that they are completely willing to get lynched or killed for the good of the cause - especially if that person is a power role. I think town players should always say that they are a bad lynch, as it is, again in my opinion, almost always better for the town to give up on lynching a scummy townie in favor of trying to find scum.

Adel, keep the pbpa's coming. Fair warning, I may later go back and pick them for Adel scum tells, but as I said, I think the more townies post the more obvious it becomes that they are townie... And the more scum post, the more likely it becomes that they will slip up. So yeah, at first glance they seem like very decent pbpa, and definitely keep them going! :D One thing I would request of you, is that after putting all of that effort into doing a pbpa, that you put a bit more detailed summary for any of the players who you find particularly scummy.
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Post Post #189 (isolation #24) » Tue Jun 05, 2007 4:06 pm

Post by Guardian »

Adel, I am really impressed, whatever your alignment is. You, dare I say it, contribute as much as if not more than I :D. We could be Mr. and Mrs. Activity xD. Please do consider my idea of having a longer Summary for scummier players. And sorry, but pet peeve: S-u-m-m-
a
-r-y.
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Post Post #196 (isolation #25) » Tue Jun 05, 2007 4:44 pm

Post by Guardian »

MeMe, you made me lol for real with both of the last two posts :D.
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Post Post #206 (isolation #26) » Tue Jun 05, 2007 7:17 pm

Post by Guardian »

Holy macaroni! Adel, This is going to be a real bear to read! You indeed do care about the game, and mucho props for that. I love your honesty in how you did some of my pbpa and then said that it was too hard to do objectively and that you would get back to it later :D. From reskimming them, there is definitely evidence of your bias that I will analyze, but I am getting the strong vibe that you are trying to do them as objectively as possible. If I get a town/neutral vibe from reading your biases... Well, then good for you ;).

Again... wow. Will you marry me Ms. Activity? We could be beautiful together!
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Post Post #210 (isolation #27) » Tue Jun 05, 2007 9:22 pm

Post by Guardian »

While being the closest to being lynched:
YogurtBandit wrote:At Day 3 it could be a LyLo Sitiuation
If we Lynch the real Cop today
, I can tell you Guardian is Scum.
Im willing to die/be lynched to prove Guardian is not the Cop.
You all are probably going to think Im kidding, but Im not.
YL, if that's not a claim I'm not sure what is... YB himself said later that he was going to claim later... But for all intensive purposes he claimed in that post. I see your logic about him being dead and that showing that I am scum and that's why he was eager to die... but as cop, you'd think that he would rather have me lynched today if he were suspicious of me rather than have himself, the real cop, die, to "prove" that I am scum.

One thing that struck me when quoting it... YB, why would we think you were kidding?
YL wrote:Also a mafia roleblocker, in most games they target a person to roleblock, so they would have to know who the vig is.
OH, that is likely what Adel was confused about, in terms of me not mentioning a mafia roleblocker. I think we can know one thing for sure: Adel is not a mafia roleblocker in this game :).

YL, though you did contribute with that post, I feel I need to
FnoS
(fingernail of suspicion... <3 YB :D) for two things:
1)Saying that I outed John, when he made it obvious that he "is" a cop.
2)Listing your complete suspicions from least to most scummy. I was chastised for this earlier, and I'd think you'd have read that and thought better of making the same mistake that I made.

Adel, I will attempt to respond to you more fully tomorrow if you desire such a response. Discredited would have been a much better word to use, because I could then have said why I didn't think they were discredited/conceded that they were. Calling them OMGUSy seemed... OMGUSy xD.

I also noted that you didn't say that you wouldn't marry me. Are you indeed female/am I reading too much into your name and avatar?
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Post Post #212 (isolation #28) » Tue Jun 05, 2007 9:54 pm

Post by Guardian »

</3
unvote vote: Adel
seems appropriate. you lied and you broke my heart.





















lol, I had a little fun with that... going to bed... putting my vote back where it was... well... actually being off YB seems like a better place to be at this point. I will reconsider after I reread the thread.
unvote
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Post Post #226 (isolation #29) » Wed Jun 06, 2007 5:47 am

Post by Guardian »

DogMom, you had some good content in your last posts, but I was going to post this yesterday, because I really do think you implied that either Nanook or I must be scum, and I think that may have been a slip/badlogic on your part.

I know the game has moved on a lot from this point... But I really read your post like Nanook did and thought that it implied an either or choice. I would like you to address this further.

Note to all players: From here below I typed and finalize yesterday, and I am posting it in it's original form.

Note: I was going to post this earlier (around 4:10 PM EST on 6/5/2007) along with my answer to Adel’s second suggestion, but decided to take a page out of MeMe's book and wait until DogMom answered Nanook's quesions... I think she strongly implied that either Nanook or I MUST be scum, regardless of what she answers to Nanook's questions... But I decided that I should wait and let her answer herself before posting this:

Dogmom, this next post is very very scummy. This bumps you up past MeMe... and about equal to Adel in my scumlist:
DogMom wrote:
Guardian wrote: An interesting thing that I note is that DogMom also chastised me about this, and then said that she couldn't see Nanook-scum or Guardian-scum :roll:.
Sorry - I wasn't clear. I
meant
wish that I had said
that I couldn't see you two as scumbuddies
because saying that you both are definitely town is the opposite of the point that I want to be arguing for
, doing this as a concerted / coordinated effort.

Jury's still out on which one of you I think is scummier
(note how I am setting up an either or choice here!)
. I'm thinking Nanook, but only because
I'm inclined to believe your claim...
FOR NOW
because saying we should lynch the claimed cop first is overkill and would look scummy as hell
.
Isn't it great how I am setting you up as great day 2 and 3 lynches, on the basis that ONE of you MUST be scum?


But YB has a lot of 'splainin to do, so I'm going to set aside the "Guardian / Nanook" thing for now
because I need to think about it a bit before I come up with some more convincing logic to lynch them
.
(the strikethrough and red text obviously mine, not DogMom's).

Let me contrast this with what DogMom actually
did
say:
DogMom wrote: Un-FoS both of 'em.
I can't see Nanook-Scum
outing the cop and drawing doc protection to him,
and I really can't see Guardian-scum
posting hints right from the gitgo.
However, now I'm irritated at both of them: Nanook for outing our possible-cop, (no, he's not confirmed and I won't 100% believe him until he is) and Guardian for essentially saying "hey, everybody, NANOOK IS TOWN! HEY SCUM! GOT A BIG OL' NK TARGET FOR YA! NO NEED TO THANK ME!"
So :evil::evil::evil::evil: at both of you.
(bolding is mine)

Note the contradictions... and scummy logic...

DogMom why must exactly one of us be scum? - you strongly implied that one of us must be scum in your post. How does that even make sense!? I think the red text I inserted above points out my argument better than my articulating it on my own ever could... YB, Adel, and DogMom all "have a lot of 'splainin to do".
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Post Post #240 (isolation #30) » Wed Jun 06, 2007 8:15 am

Post by Guardian »

Adel wrote:Active players only scum-hunting among active players is bad for town. My suggestion is to turn that dynamic on its head and start with a scum list comprised of the most inactive players. By being attacked (or pressured or bullied or whatever) they will be forced to defend themselves or find themselves in a post-or-hang situation.
OK, I take it back, third time is the charm. I really like that theory, and I kind of disagree with MeMe - by half (or so) of us being really active, we may be letting the scum lurk in the shadows. It is not necessarily true that 1, or 2, or all the scum are among that group, but getting them to contribute
can't
be bad for the town.

Also Adel... your criticism of my technique was constructive. I will at some point try and rephrase my case against DogMom. Barring scumminess in your pbpa's, you are moving much closer back towards "suspicious of, but no real read on" rather than "more likely to be scum than not".
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Post Post #263 (isolation #31) » Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:18 am

Post by Guardian »

Vote: ChaosOmega


Please answer Adel's question.
Also, please point to any reasons that you are suspicious of YB that you came up with independently.

I am still suspicious of DogMom for my above (poorly articulated?) reasons, and I feel that there is something else that bears replying to, but I am entertaining company tonight so I will not be able to address those issue(s) until later.
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Post Post #268 (isolation #32) » Wed Jun 06, 2007 4:29 pm

Post by Guardian »

DogMom in post 146 wrote:
Guardian wrote: An interesting thing that I note is that DogMom also chastised me about this, and then said that she couldn't see Nanook-scum or Guardian-scum :roll:.
Sorry - I wasn't clear. I
meant
that I couldn't see you two as scumbuddies, doing this as a concerted / coordinated effort.

Jury's still out on which one of you I think is scummier. I'm thinking Nanook, but only because I'm inclined to believe your claim...
FOR NOW
.
But YB has a lot of 'splainin to do, so I'm going to set aside the "Guardian / Nanook" thing for now.
I will try and say this as concisely as possible. DogMom, I find you as really scummy for this post. Though you denied it later, you strongly implied in this post that one of either Nanook or I must be scum. You set it up as an either or choice, and said you weren't sure which was scummier - either I, the at that time only claimed cop, or Nanook, who outed the at that time only claimed cop... The way you phrased it makes it seem to me like you were trying to paint a target on both our backs even though it at the time seemed obvious to me that we both were town.

Official
FOS: DogMom
for this.
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Post Post #269 (isolation #33) » Wed Jun 06, 2007 4:33 pm

Post by Guardian »

@Streeflo:

Hmm. I guess I just want more content from the inactive players so I liked Adel's third theory. It too may be flawed as well. I am just trying to look throughout the town for potential non-Adel scum, as I became fixated on her as being scum for a bit. I would still at this point like some answers from ChaosOmega.

I indeed see no meaningful case against YagamiLight, as well.
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Post Post #278 (isolation #34) » Thu Jun 07, 2007 4:10 am

Post by Guardian »

I'm going to still go ahead and take full credit for activity because I am in the game Nanook. ;).

DogMom... I will reconsider, but at this point I think you are just covering up your mistake. Your point about obviousness/not seems like obfuscation to me, but maybe you are actually trying to get something across.

Not much else to respond to at the moment without waiting for ChaosOmega to give us some answers; like MeMe said throwing too wide a net can just lead a lower signal:noise ratio in the game.
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Post Post #316 (isolation #35) » Fri Jun 08, 2007 6:40 am

Post by Guardian »

When this happens to me I actually get really frustrated with it... But ChaosOmega's just going along with me and possibly trying to "make a friend" is kind of suspicious. He first says that he believes I am cop, then votes for Adel who I have been suspicious of all game. However, he has decent reasons for being suspicious of me, a healthy level of doubt about his sureness, and logic behind his vote on Adel that does make sense.
ChaosOmega
, I'd like to hear your thoughts on both DogMom and YB.

YB has been throwing a really wide net, and is the only one who has voted YL in this game according to Adel's graphic. I don't recall what context it was in, but if that happened non-randomly it is kind of suspicious for me. Also, you've got to be suspicious of the "other cop" in a mini normal... If there are in fact two cops, this has interesting consequences, imo, about the game setup. This game really deserves a re-read, but I only want to do one before deadline (deadline is less than a week now, I think, or near to it, fyi), so that will come later.
YB
, if you are now willing to believe that there are in fact two cops, why did you also claim so soon?

I was thinking about Nanook outing me, and I can think of some reasons he would do it as scum, and it disturbs me that I didn't think of them sooner. He is now actually much less surely town in my eyes. And no, before anyone asks, I don't care to disclose them at this point.

DogMom... you bet you've acted scummy. And I didn't particularly get a good vibe from you in your response to my suspicion of you. It felt something along the lines of "well, you can think that I'm scummy if you want, but ya know, whatever."
I don't really like the vote on NanoS either... My revelations about Nanook make me think NanoS could have been legitimately suspicious of both of me and Nanook, and NanoS could have good reasons for the case on Adel.
DogMom
, what exactly has NanoS done that is scummy besides lurking and voting for your scum partner(s)?
NanoS
, please articulate/resummarize your case against Adel and why you think she is scummy.

It is interesting to me that BM came up with the same theory Adel did about me and Nanook. I am OK with lynching Nanook if he does/has done other scummy things besides outing me. As I said, I did some thinking and my initial logic about how he must be town is not as shatterproof as I thought. BM, I think it is a twist of my reaction totally to say that I did not get angry with Nanook for outing me. However, being angry at someone does not mean you should finger them as scum.
BM
, what do you think about Adel?

I feel
I
need to address Adel. This whole game she has been giving off mixed (some
very
scummy) vibes to me, and I am still itching to vote her. I am trying to do as I said and keep open minded about she and I both being (at least earlier) extremely wordy town, but something inside me just isn't buying it. I will give it a few more days, but don't be suprised if my vote ends up back on Adel before the days is over. I've felt that she was a little fishy from the start. That being said, there are some other players near the top of my suspicions list.


Considering all this, I am not particularly happy with my vote on ChaosOmega anymore, but I see no reason to remove it at this point before I get more of a read on him.
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Post Post #319 (isolation #36) » Fri Jun 08, 2007 6:48 am

Post by Guardian »

I figured you would say that, but you were at lynch -3 :?. I didn't perceive that you were close to being lynched, nor did anyone ask for a claim.
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Post Post #322 (isolation #37) » Fri Jun 08, 2007 7:44 am

Post by Guardian »

DogMom, on point one, I am more than willing to move on to something else. Say, let's move on to point two!

On point two, I
definitely
was asking a loaded question. And you gave me just the type of answer I thought you might give. What's great is your overreaction.
DogMom wrote:
I don't really like the vote on NanoS either... My revelations about Nanook make me think NanoS could have been legitimately suspicious of both of me and Nanook, and NanoS could have good reasons for the case on Adel.
DogMom
,
what exactly has NanoS done that is scummy besides lurking
and voting for your scum partner(s)?
That's an awfully loaded question. I've
said
what he's done that I think is scummy, and now you're saying "
what do you think is scummy (except for all the stuff you've already said was scummy?
") THAT was pretty scummy of YOU, dontcha think?
So, howsabout I turn it around on you: what about ME do you find scummy, EXCEPT for everything you've already said was scummy?

I quite honestly don't care if he votes Adel.
I thought her comment about "act scummy or I'll think you're scum" was the perfect Catch-22, and quite scummy as well.
I said I thought he was being scummy
for lurking
. For saying he's CONSTANTLY reading and updating the thread, and yet has nothing to say? He's doing a GREAT job of flying under the radar, and I'm calling him out on it.
So, you basically confirm that the only reason you find him scummy is for lurking. You don't really care about any of his actions, you are just trying to look useful by calling out a lurker. You say as much in that post. You, in fact, have no reason other than him not posting as much as everyone else to think he is scummy.

You
definitely
are squirming, even though I am the only one being actively suspicious of you. Why is that? Also, when you crossed out that NanoS had voted for your scum partners, what did you mean by that? Has he not yet voted for your scum partners?

In response to you asking me the same question: Nothing; at this point, everything I've said that I thought was scummy about you is what I think is scummy about you.
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Post Post #323 (isolation #38) » Fri Jun 08, 2007 7:53 am

Post by Guardian »

YogurtBandit wrote:
Guardian wrote:I figured you would say that, but you were at lynch -3 :?. I didn't perceive that you were close to being lynched, nor did anyone ask for a claim.
Yes, but I felt you were going overboard with your cop claim.
OK, now we're getting somewhere. What do you mean by this? Can you give examples? Do you still feel the same way? Why or why not?
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Post Post #330 (isolation #39) » Fri Jun 08, 2007 10:02 am

Post by Guardian »

YL, thank goodness you posted
after
YB! I noticed this contradiction - my question was leading in such a way to see if
YB
would notice the contradiction - and he didn't! He then went on to answer another round of my questions presupposed by the contradiction. I am not sure to what extent this is scummy, but you are most right I did catch him in a contradiction there.

Now I know how MeMe felt when she asked Nekka about a post restriction and I outed it; YB posted just in time for YL to not out that I was trying to get him to contradict what he had said earlier even more.

Adel, I could actually get behind brainstorming a case on YB. He has been fluffposting a lot, seemed like he was considering counter claiming and then a few pages/days later actually did so, and I am still dubious as to whether there are two cops in the game. He even admitted (again thank goodness before YL posted) that he was annoyed that I was going to draw doc protection for the night. I officially
FoS: YogurtBandit
.
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Post Post #350 (isolation #40) » Fri Jun 08, 2007 7:19 pm

Post by Guardian »

NanoS, I think it is typical to breadcrumb early; breadcrumbing midgame would suggest (to me, at least) that I was scum that thought of doing it later, and was not doing it because I am a cop.

This is a hard point for me to get across, because I don't find Nanook particularly scummy. But I am not at all tied to or married to Nanook. If Nanook acts scummy then we should lynch him. If he acts townlike, then we should not. People keep bringing up a tie between Nanook and I, and I want to make it clear that no such tie exists; if he turns up scum I don't want people rehashing Adel's theory on me.

Erotomachia, I see where you are coming from on saying Kelly checking the setup makes two cops plausible, but outguessing the mod always seems to work out badly. I don't understand you going beyond that and defending YB though; why do you not want to hold him up to public scrutiny? If it looks like he is town, then I might buy, at least temporarily, that there are indeed two cops in the game. Be if not, I can definitely see him as scum fake claiming. Two cops in a mini normal is indeed rare.

ChaosOmega, I still want your thoughts on DogMom and YB. BM, I still want to hear what you think about Adel.
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Post Post #352 (isolation #41) » Fri Jun 08, 2007 8:13 pm

Post by Guardian »

MeMe wrote:Guardian, if NanookTheWolf is town, he has just as much right to be irritated with you as you do with him. You going out of your way to say "I think he's town because he wouldn't have done that" just paints a target on his back if he
is
. See, telling everyone "hey -- I probably won't be willing to lynch so and so because I think they're town" means that scum won't want that person around. They prefer to leave people alive who might be lynched (which goes back to my first point)...so vocalizing belief in others isn't what town should be doing at this point -- save that for endgame.

Town are looking for scum. If you think you've identified town -- great, but keep a lid on it unless they're about to be lynched.
Adel, I made the mistake of fingering Nanook as town earlier in the game. At least two or three more people have followed in my blundering footsteps, calling people very likely town or whatnot, and I or others have chastised them for it. And then you finger of acquittal me?

I mean, thanks for the FoA, I find it reasonable for you to
think
that, but why
post
it? The only reason for a player to do this at this point is because they have not been reading the thread carefully at all (which I don't believe is true in your case) or because they are scum trying to make a friend. Please explain the FoA :?.
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Post Post #360 (isolation #42) » Sat Jun 09, 2007 8:56 am

Post by Guardian »

Erotomachia, good point; it indeed seems to be the best play to let both claimed cops live and see what happens, despite how suspicious one might be of either of them. Lynching me, or lynching YB if he is also a cop, will only make the mafia not even have to use a NK on that person.
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Post Post #362 (isolation #43) » Sat Jun 09, 2007 9:02 am

Post by Guardian »

Adel, I joined this game because of the two week deadlines. Deadlines are typically bad for the town, but I joined this game because of the strict deadlines, and I really don't want to see them get fluid.

By the way, I didn't respond if your explanation is good enough because I am not sure yet. I can see you making it as both town or scum; if you are town then at face value it is understandable (though I still would not have made the FoA), removing noise and all; if you are scum I can definitely see you as trying to backtrack away from all your arguments against the cop.
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Post Post #367 (isolation #44) » Sat Jun 09, 2007 9:52 am

Post by Guardian »

theopor_COD in the queue wrote:Just to let you all know I'm planning on a two week deadline for every day phase, games got to be over by end of July as I'm away on my hols. Therefore if you want a quick game sign-up, lurkers will be banished from Theoville :P
I feel betrayed :\. I am conflicted, because I know it will help us find scum, but I really wanted a faster game...
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Post Post #380 (isolation #45) » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:53 am

Post by Guardian »

I am really beginning to think that YB is scum faking, and that we are in a one cop game. His wavering back and forth, his reasons for claiming, his self-contradictions, and backtracking all make me think he is uncofident scum. That being said, even if I thought he was by far the most scummy player (which I do not), it seems like it would possibly
still
be a bad idea to lynch him for the sole reason that there is some small potential that he is a second cop.

Adel I have been suspicious of for most of the game, she created a lot of noise that she is trying to backtrack from, and has had some really, really scummy posts. I could be OK with an Adel lynch.

DogMom is my last main candidate at the moment, I still get bad vibes from that post I quoted, and I think she overreacted when I interrogated her. I could be OK with a DogMom lynch.

The remaining players mostly fall into two categories... On the one hand, we have players who have been posting, contributing, and yet managing not to draw almost any suspicion to themselves (which could be good town strategy, and could be scum hiding). On the other, we have lurkers. Drawing the lurkers out of the shadows is definitely a good idea.
Guardian wrote:ChaosOmega, I still want your thoughts on DogMom and YB. BM, I still want to hear what you think about Adel.
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Post Post #383 (isolation #46) » Sat Jun 09, 2007 1:16 pm

Post by Guardian »

Adel: OK... but I am waiting for BM's thoughts on you, as well, so don't be surprised when after three other players post cases/thoughts on you, that my opinions have something in common with theirs.
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Post Post #391 (isolation #47) » Sun Jun 10, 2007 10:10 am

Post by Guardian »

YogurtBandit wrote:Guardian, a thing that my mind has just brought attention to me, I was thinking if we really are both cops,
The Mafia could kill one and blame the other for lying
Which would kill both cops, If not both townspersons. I mean come on. We must really be aware that lynching one of us isnt the smart thing to do.
Even if I am scum, would I really want you lynched? No.
YB... if you are scum, you
most definitely
want me lynched. You, as scum, would
say
that you don't want me lynched, but you would rather I got lynched and you had your NK to aim elsewhere. Saying that as scum you wouldn't want me lynched... makes little sense and is scummy.

Also, please address YL's points.
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Post Post #398 (isolation #48) » Sun Jun 10, 2007 1:04 pm

Post by Guardian »

CO, thanks for your analysis. It seems well thought through, like most of your posts; keep contributing like that ;). I'm going to have to disagree with you on DogMom, but I do agree on YB...

YB, answer, now.
YagamiLight wrote:I'm sorry, thought it was clear, but what I had wanted was a comment from him about the contradictions and why I must be scum for pointing them out.
I can see the case on NanoS; I want to hear more from him before I decide whether or not to place a vote.

NanoS, even if you are just restating what others or yourself have said, explain clearly why you think Adel is the most scummy.
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Post Post #401 (isolation #49) » Sun Jun 10, 2007 3:37 pm

Post by Guardian »

I definitely want to hear
more
from NanoS. He said your scumminess built, he said nothing definitive about what made your scumminess build.
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Post Post #407 (isolation #50) » Sun Jun 10, 2007 5:04 pm

Post by Guardian »

Guardian wrote:NanoS, even if you are just restating what others or yourself have said, explain clearly why you think Adel is the most scummy.
Now!
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Post Post #418 (isolation #51) » Mon Jun 11, 2007 1:03 pm

Post by Guardian »

unvote vote Adel
.

My reasons are there, I can re-summarize and go back and quote and all that if you all feel that it is necessary.

NanoS, please do (re)state, clearly and in one post, your case against Adel. Go back and quote what she has done that you thought is scummy, summarize why it is scummy etc. Go build a case!

I think NanoS is a confused townie and something of an easy target. NanoS, please do as I am asking. If you don't after all this prodding, I could envision you being new scum that is lurking on purpose. Even if not scum, if you completely refuse to give reasons why Adel, or anyone for that matter, is scummy, then you are definitely being anti-town (town aligned, but doing nothing to help us win).
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Post Post #421 (isolation #52) » Mon Jun 11, 2007 3:35 pm

Post by Guardian »

OK NanoS, that case is not complete nor airtight, but I do agree with your analysis that those quotes can be seen as scummy, and I think they are among a plethora of good reasons for Adel to be the play.

For the remainder of the game, when you find players suspicious, quote reasons why, or explain why if what was suspicious was in close proximity! Also, asking questions or making requests of people can be helpful in tracking down scum. Keep content like that coming!

Adel, I really feel that you are a good play for today. Feel free to find someone better/convince me otherwise.
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Post Post #427 (isolation #53) » Mon Jun 11, 2007 7:20 pm

Post by Guardian »

Adel wrote:My theory is that being too careful is a little anti-town, assuming that the resulting increase in information and activity by not being too careful is worth more than the increased chance of a mis-lynch. I may be wrong. I certainly do not have this game figured out yet.
Hmm. That is my game theory that I tried to explain to MeMe much earlier in the game, too :D. I think your posting a lot and your slips showed you to be scum though :x.

I am too tired to fully consider your essay a few posts back, but I will do so when I get the time. Maybe you are a townie, just one with a few slipups and crazy theories?

Also, quoted for truth:
Adel wrote:I would not be comfortable lynching Nano until we get more from CO and BM. I would also like to see a little more from Streeflo and Ecto as well right now. I would like to see Dog_mom and Nanook take serious stands for and against a couple of people. I would love to see MeMe drop a 7 paragraph logic bomb on this thread. I would like to see all of the above before we lynch anyone, and I am beginning to worry about the deadline. Less than 5 days now. YB is out of consideration because of his claim, CO shares some faults with Nano, but Nano is the best candidate for scum that I can see.
I really agree with you there... I am going to sleep on it but maybe you aren't the play. The only thing I disagree with is YB, I need to do a re-read on him, I am beginning to think more and more that he is scum who just tried a fake claim... A little bell keeps going off in my head telling me that this game isn't a two cop game...
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Post Post #429 (isolation #54) » Mon Jun 11, 2007 7:55 pm

Post by Guardian »

Hey, I am too tired to be posting (and that is probably why I wasn't clear in the first place), but fyi, what I think is scummy is not your posting a lot, in and of itself, but the content that came from you posting a lot. Posting a lot is pro-town, and I agreed with you on that.

And yeah, I very much doubt that YB is a cop, but I guess leaving him around for at least one night is the play.

Me, sleep, now.
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Post Post #434 (isolation #55) » Tue Jun 12, 2007 8:30 am

Post by Guardian »

I too have no read so far on MeMe, Streeflo, or YL. This disturbs me. MeMe could be scum or town, both just as easily. Ditto with YL. Ditto with Streeflo - and I
really
feel he is flying under the radar, he cast one vote and unvoted, and no one has voted for him. I really am not sure I agree with MeMe's game theory about people not being too suspicious of you but also not being sure if you are town as being good pro-town theory. All three of those players are employing it, and I don't like it.

Then there are the lurkers, who I am more sure that I don't like...

DogMom, "Also, there's scummy behavior from each of the 2 claimants, so I really can't choose. In any case, I think neither of them is the play for today. " Substantiate that please. As in, back up, with evidence, that there has been significant scummy behavior from both of us, specifically me. To me it seems like you are setting up yet another either or choice. Also, you FoS YB and NanoS, and a post later follow MeMe onto BM? I am shocked no one else is finding you scummy. I am happy with my vote on Adel right now, but if pressure shifts to you I will not be at all displeased.

BM, I don't buy that you are automatically scum because of this, and am more than a bit surprised at the three quick votes in a row. However, I definitely am interested in hearing what you have to say from yourself.

Adel, you write well, and I enjoy reading your posts, but I am still getting a scummy read on you. Why switch your vote to BM just a few hours later after you lay out such a good case on NanoS?
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Post Post #457 (isolation #56) » Wed Jun 13, 2007 5:41 am

Post by Guardian »

Yeah, I really don't like the BM quick wagon. I think Adel seems to be a good play for today, or NanoS, or DogMom. Adel raised a valid point that, NanoS, even if town, isn't really helping out a lot. And it is by no means assured that he is town. On the flip side, we don't have a lot to go by if NanoS does get lynched and shows up town though, whereas Adel would give us a lot to go on.

As Adel alluded to, I am not sure if I am in good company on the Adel wagon, though... She isn't that close to lynch, but my heavy suspicion of two of my would be lynching partners alone is enough to make me wonder if Adel should be the play.

I've mentioned what I don't like about NanoS, and I re-skimmed YB's posts, and I am just not liking him as a second cop. He definitely was considering counterclaiming, toying around with a two cop theory, and then decided to do it. He has not given good reasoning for his suspicions, and has blatantly dodged YL's concerns like 5 or 6 times, not even bothering to do a quick re-read to try and answer. Lynching him today does indeed seem foolish, but if I end up dead tomorrow morning, please look at YB closely... I am just not buying it.

Also, I definitely don't see MeMe as particularly likely to be pro town; the BM push by her did seem opportunistic, and I believe BM's explanation that he isn't lurking as a strategy, he is lurking because he is busy and hasn't caught up fully on the game yet. That being said, I agree that if BM can find 30 minutes for this game, that would really help us out, considering the deadline
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Post Post #458 (isolation #57) » Wed Jun 13, 2007 5:47 am

Post by Guardian »

Yeah, I really don't like the BM quick wagon. I think Adel seems to be a good play for today, or NanoS, or DogMom. Adel raised a valid point that, NanoS, even if town, isn't really helping out a lot. And it is by no means assured that he is town. On the flip side, we don't have a lot to go by if NanoS does get lynched and shows up town though, whereas Adel would give us a lot to go on.

As Adel alluded to, I am not sure if I am in good company on the Adel wagon, though... She isn't that close to lynch, but my heavy suspicion of two of my would be lynching partners alone is enough to make me wonder if Adel should be the play.

I've mentioned what I don't like about NanoS, and I re-skimmed YB's posts, and I am just not liking him as a second cop. He definitely was considering counterclaiming, toying around with a two cop theory, and then decided to do it. He has not given good reasoning for his suspicions, and has blatantly dodged YL's concerns like 5 or 6 times, not even bothering to do a quick re-read to try and answer. Lynching him today does indeed seem foolish, but if I end up dead tomorrow morning, please look at YB closely... I am just not buying it.

Also, I definitely don't see MeMe as particularly likely to be pro town; the BM push by her did seem opportunistic, and I believe BM's explanation that he isn't lurking as a strategy, he is lurking because he is busy and hasn't caught up fully on the game yet. That being said, I agree that if BM can find 30 minutes for this game, that would really help us out, considering the deadline.
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Post Post #462 (isolation #58) » Wed Jun 13, 2007 6:32 am

Post by Guardian »

BM lurks, BM posts in other games, BM is not careful with how he talks about it, you catch him in a lie, you jump off a wagon and start your own... the logic you used is what I take issue with and find opportunistic; even though he had no votes on him he was an easy target. Also, not your fault directly, but the two quick votes on him, by two people I find to be scummy, doesn't help the case, for me.

I am in the game with BM in c9, and even without votes he is taking heat for it from other players (including me, but no vote, fyi) and he responded to it. I, at this point, don't think that his lurking has anything to do with his alignment because his explanation makes sense. I agree he should post to help us out, but I don't agree that his lurking, considering his reasons for it, is any indication of him being scum.
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Post Post #467 (isolation #59) » Wed Jun 13, 2007 7:17 am

Post by Guardian »

Erotomachia wrote:I wouldn't be comfortable with a sudden Battle Mage lynch. He's obviously not going to post anything before Friday, so even voting for him now is pointless.

We can punish him for his lack of posting, but I don't think it'll get us anywhere. Since he hasn't posted anything (and apparently hasn't even read the thread yet), it'll be hard to know what to do on Day 2 if he turns up town - he simply hasn't formed any connections to other players. I don't like the way he's reacting, but I think a different lynch would provide more information.
This is the same feeling I've been trying to express.

MeMe, I bought it because I read his post here, and links in other threads, and the c9 in which I am playing... Opportunistic may have been the wrong word, maybe not, but I really was not buying the BM play.

You are not responsible for the votes that followed you, though they may imply a connection...
Catching someone in not fully articulating the truth
I think is a more accurate description of what you did, and I don't think that that deserves a vote.

I've been supplying you with that "elusive" third reason of why I was defending BM: I didn't think BM was trying to be deceitful, and I thought he just didn't want to spend the time to sit down and analyze this game before Friday afternoon when he is done with exams. I did not say I am alright with what BM is doing, I think replacing in when he knew about the deadlines and that he had exams was a very poor choice, but I don't think that alone makes him scum.

Adel's last paragraph, however, brings up very good points, and the way BM reacted to MeMe's accusations gives me greater cause to think he is scum than the accusations themselves; BM, if you spent all the time you spent defending your lurking reading the game and posting your thoughts, you'd be done by now, and would have both posted your thoughts and removed all people's suspicions of you for lurking.

I maintain that I didn't like the initial wagon, but the way BM so time consumingly defended his lurking in this particular game makes me question his motives... I eagerly await BM's thoughts on the game.
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Post Post #472 (isolation #60) » Wed Jun 13, 2007 10:03 am

Post by Guardian »

BM, I definitely am not thrilled by the original case on you, but your response - OMGUS behavior and failure to analyze anyone else besides MeMe - is not convincing me that you are pro town...
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Post Post #494 (isolation #61) » Wed Jun 13, 2007 3:39 pm

Post by Guardian »

MeMe, I really was not liking BM's reactions there, but it is true that my initial impression of your case on him was not a good one...

However, if you really didn't like BM's behavior and found BM to be a good place for your vote, why move your vote to appease the town? You posted more in the past few pages than you have all game, but now because you've met some disagreement you decide to move your vote? If you felt strongly about it, why not try and convince us?

I could understand moving your vote if BM was going to be lynched at deadline, but BM doesn't even have the most votes at this point. You seem to be moving it because people don't like you pushing for a BM lynch. I find that suspicious.
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Post Post #513 (isolation #62) » Thu Jun 14, 2007 11:38 am

Post by Guardian »

Adel wrote:Yes, I would rather you vote for me than leave a meaningless vote on MeMe.
How is his vote on MeMe any less meaningless than your vote on him?
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Post Post #517 (isolation #63) » Thu Jun 14, 2007 7:51 pm

Post by Guardian »

NanoS, do you still find Adel scummy? If so, why do you think she is pushing for BM votes?
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Post Post #527 (isolation #64) » Fri Jun 15, 2007 8:45 am

Post by Guardian »

Guardian wrote:
Adel wrote:Yes, I would rather you vote for me than leave a meaningless vote on MeMe.
How is his vote on MeMe any less meaningless than your vote on him?
Adel wrote:Mine is generating evidence.
Adel defends her vote, and then in her next post builds a counter wagon...
Adel wrote:
unvote: BM, vote:Nanosauromo
However, NanoS is also looking
very
scummy for:
Nanosauromo wrote:
NanoS, do you still find Adel scummy?
Yes, but I need to gather more evidence before I can continue my case against her.
If so, why do you think she is pushing for BM votes?
Perhaps she's Mafia and BM is a Serial Killer. (Or vice versa)
I am really not liking YB for:
YogurtBandit wrote:
theopor_COD wrote:
Jalyn has replaced DogMom effective of now. Deadline is 48 hours away. Votecount coming.
thats odd, Dogmom had just posted.Oh well.


Welcome Jalyn! Right now me and Guardian have both claimed Cop, fyi.
Why do you feel the necessity to mention this to Jalyn but not to BM?

Also, YB has shown a very basic disregard for reading the thread and responding to obvious questions or noticing obvious things. How many times did YL need to ask you before we got a straight answer - and a one sentence blow off, at that?! And how can you be surprised that DogMom is replacing out when she requested to be replaced? I find you scummy, sir.

Jalyn, welcome, I find your posts well thought out and agree with both your main suspicions and your thoughts on YB and I. However don't think that I am going to forget the suspicions I had of DogMom; she never adequately responded to my queries of her, in my opinion, and I found her actions suspicions. If you want to try and defend her actions, be my guest.

Sumarry: My main suspicions lie on Adel and NanoS today, though I will have my eye on Jalyn and YB tomorrow - Jalyn today really if anyone else picks up on it, but we have about a day left and I don't see any support at all for a Jalyn lynch. MeMe, YL, and Streeflo have been incredibly difficult to get reads on, I do not the MeMe-BM interaction, for either side, MeMe for her original case and BM for how he responded to it. YL almost seems to have been deliberately unclear on the BM-MeMe issue, and I didn't like that. Streeflo has never been voted for, and has placed only one vote the whole game - great townie who is suspicious of many, or scum lurking in the shadows? ChaosOmega Erotomachia and Nanook need to contribute down the stretch here, I don't have much of a read on them either, nor am I sure of who they suspect.
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Post Post #538 (isolation #65) » Fri Jun 15, 2007 12:33 pm

Post by Guardian »

Erotomachia wrote:Why is Guardian still voting for Adel?!
I don't like her theories I think they don't help town, I think she generated a lot of noise today possibly in effort to confuse the town, and quite a few of her statements among the pages of text she has generated really really strike me the wrong way.

NanoS does not seem like a bad second alternative, but I can see him as being new town; I will not be very disappointed if he is lynched today because even if he is town he has not been very helpful, but at this point I am happier with an Adel lynch. I will say again, and this gives me some pause, I do not much like my company on the Adel wagon. I am going to try and re-read the whole thing before deadline, and I will consider switching my vote then.

MeMe, that is an interesting point about mod/Adel interaction, but her not pointing back to it is a null tell to me; pointing back to it in and of itself would make it look like a farce. I can definitely see a mafioso asking that question, too, to seem innocent.

Theo's response is the most telling thing, and I agree that he does seem like he was trying to answer her question to make sure she understood, but I would assume he would try to answer that question the same way if a townie asked or if a mafia member asked. I am not sure how much I want to trust that one exchange as a town-tell.

YL, I will re-read the whole thing again, but after reading it again after reading your explanation of it, I am still confused as to how it means what you say it was intended to mean. This is not a huge tell for me, but that post was really really hard to understand...

Adel, I find it convenient that your vote stopped being useful with a day to go before deadline, and that your target was the player with the largest wagon besides your own. Among the many other phrases you've used that I don't like, I don't like how you said "Please be careful about putting additional votes on me...." It just rubs me the wrong way, because you are trying to convince people not to vote you with just rhetoric and not logic.

NanoS, really, can you not see how that post of yours is suspicious?
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Post Post #551 (isolation #66) » Sat Jun 16, 2007 3:29 am

Post by Guardian »

Hmm. I'm not gonna lie, I still like the Adel play. NanoS by not understanding, or even worse, by pretending to not understand, is a very appealing target, though.

However, I see a good third alternative, and I think it's just possible that we'll get enough votes on him before deadline.

unvote vote: BM


I will be able to post once more before deadline, if nothing has changed on BM, I will likely put my vote back on Adel, or vote for NanoS.
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Post Post #561 (isolation #67) » Sat Jun 16, 2007 8:39 am

Post by Guardian »

unvote


I did more of a reskim than a reread, but I will revote, as promised, at the end of this post.

NanoS has not done much that is scummy... but that is because he has not done much of anything. His reasons for voting people are bad, his not understanding that his post was scummy was bad, and, not to be biblical or anything, he denied three times that he could figure out how his post was scummy. NanoS, if you are town and really can't understand, just fyi it is scummy because you are assuming one is SK, disregarding connections, and assuming that the SK would help mafia hunt and the mafia would help SK hunt. I don't much like his reasons for his suspicions of Nanook or Adel, his two main targets... but he really hasn't done much this game.

Adel has done a lot of things that are scummy... and I think some of them were intentionally trying to look town-like. Some requests she made of people and statements were just.... really bad. However, she has contributed a lot, and if she is town, she is at least trying to help us out. Adel, btw, I don't like how you asked me to drop my vote on you because I have been holding on to it for too long, I have good reasons for my suspicion as you've acknowledged. This is what I mean by just using rhetoric - instead of asking me to remove my vote, do more of the types of posts (which you have done, and definitely are capable of) where you use logic as to why you are not a good vote.

After my reskim, I don't think either Adel or NanoS are the ideal lynch for today. I think BM is a much better lynch for his reactions and stuff, his "fear" of getting NK'd, and what MeMe said about how he is lurking and trying to get away with it.

Eroto, I disagree that my vote on BM was pointless. It, at the least, is making a statement. I think he is likely the best play for today, and a few pages ago he had three votes on him. Maybe it was idealistic of me to think we could get a last minute wagon going, but I wanted to try and start it.

If I am NK'd please go back and look at my post a few posts back where I outlined all of the players. Take a hard look at BM, Adel, Jalyn, and most of all YB. I am just not thinking there are really two cops in the game; I will be very interested in YB's investigation results.

Anyways, of Adel or NanoS, who seem to be the two options...

vote NanoS


Lynch -1 makes it almost sure we will get a lynch today, which will give us info, which is obviously good. I echo the
FOS YB
for wanting a no lynch. I do not feel particularly good about lynching NanoS, but I do not feel particularly bad either, as he has not contributed much. The best reads we will get from his death are on those who pushed for his lynch and/or defended him.

I hope he is scum, and there is certainly a chance of it, but I do not feel sure about it. There is a definite possibility that he is just new town. I wish the BM wagon had happened, and I almost regret opposing the earlier one even though I thought it started for bad reasons, as BM's reactions to that small wagon and his iffy reasoning indicate to me that he is scum.

I hope I am alive and have a good result for you tomorrow.
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Post Post #571 (isolation #68) » Mon Jun 18, 2007 3:16 pm

Post by Guardian »

Hmm, two deaths, odd targets... I've got to believe Battle Mage was killed by an errant vig, he looked so scummy... Erotomachia's (in lieu of my own, or MeMe's, or YB's, to name a few) death surprises me.

I got an interesting result from Theo last night; I can claim it now but I want YB to claim first. Ultimately, I think the town should decide exactly how and in what order we claim.
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Post Post #583 (isolation #69) » Tue Jun 19, 2007 2:19 am

Post by Guardian »

I am somewhat vilified in that I defended the initial attack on BM; his later actions looked so scummy though, so maybe he would have been lynched today and we are better off.

I would list my main suspects for today, but I do not want to hint at what my result was.


I will say that I think YB is likely scum. I want to see his "result" first, because a two cop setup is remotely possible, but I do not want him to be able to base his result upon mine...

Also, my result in and of itself is such that I would like to see him go first. I will go by whatever the town decides, but it seems that already (myself included) six of the remaining nine town members prefer to see YB's result first.
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Post Post #585 (isolation #70) » Tue Jun 19, 2007 2:38 am

Post by Guardian »

Guardian wrote:I defended the initial attack on BM
That should be "I defended BM from the initial attack". My brain thought that defended the initial attack meant I tried to prevent against the initial attack, for some reason.
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Post Post #588 (isolation #71) » Tue Jun 19, 2007 8:57 am

Post by Guardian »

Ahh!, I thought I made a post before Nanook made his, but it disappeared. Basically, I was sleepy, and I didn't know the definition of vilify. The real definition has nothing to do with "feeling justified/good about". GAH! All I was trying to say, is this:

I [felt justified for/was happy about/give myself props for] defending BM from the attack against him, because my (initial, at least) read was correct in that I thought he legitimately had reasons for lurking and was not using it as a tactic.
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Post Post #591 (isolation #72) » Tue Jun 19, 2007 10:20 am

Post by Guardian »

NanookTheWolf wrote:Why did you feel the need to point this out Guardian?
Because I fell under considerable attack by MeMe yesterday for my reasoning, and I turned out to be right. It was a small point; my horrible articulation of it is emphasizing it.



YogurtBandit, now that you have posted your "result", I see no reason not to post my own. I was very tempted to target you last night, because I still do not buy that you are a cop. However, I decided to target Adel instead. She pushed for the NanoS lynching, and MeMe defended her against lynching for what seemed to me to be silly reasons. She has generated a lot of anti-town noise, and whatever her alignment showed up as, it would be useful information to me. I got a
guilty
on Adel.

YB, this bit about my sanity and your sanity is great and all, but I am just not buying it. I think this is a one cop game, and I think I am sane, and I think we have two scum, Adel and YB, with MeMe looking very suspicious if Adel/YB does turn up scum. If YB is a cop, then I would assume we are sane/insane, and either Adel and MeMe are both town, or both scum. I am going to do a re-read when I get time, and look for interactions between the two. Right now, voting for Adel, who I got a guilty result on, seems appropriate.

vote: Adel
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Post Post #597 (isolation #73) » Tue Jun 19, 2007 11:48 am

Post by Guardian »

NanookTheWolf wrote:Voting for Adel would prove your sanity, but I question why you didn't investigate YB when you sound so sure that he too isn't a cop ..
I investigated Adel because I realized that if I got a guilty on YB, he would say "Oh, you must be insane". If I got an innocent on him, that would prove that there are two cops, but I highly doubted that I would get an innocent result on him. Also, if he is really a cop, more suspicion was on him at that point, and I was sure he would be NK'd if innocent because he would be less likely to draw potential doc protection. Frankly, I am quite surprised he and I are still alive - either the scum are trying to play us against each other, or they got doc WIFOM'd, or YB is scum. I think that YB is scum.

However, I do not think he is the lynch for today, because I got a guilty result - if we lynch Adel and she turns up town, that would confirm YB in my eyes; he would have to be a sane cop and I an insane (or paranoid) one. I doubt that that will prove to be the case, but it is a slight possibility.
Streeflo wrote:I don't think there's a sane cop and an insane cop in one game. That's overpowered to have two cops that can give results. I think the most likely scenario is that one of you is lying scum. The second most likely would be one of you guys being paranoid or naive.
In games that I've read, at least, one insane and one sane cop is popular when two cops are present. What I agree with you on is that there are definitely not two sane cops in the game.
MeMe wrote:Guardian -- you felt under "horrible attack" from me? Could you show me what posts of mine justify that feeling?
MeMe, I said considerable attack. Please don't put quotes around words if I didn't say them. The attack was significant, as I was the first to defend BM and you were digging for reasons and saying that there weren't any. The posts in question are 460 and 466, especially 466.
MeMe in 466 wrote:I'm really having a difficult time understanding why anyone would be alright with what BM is doing -- especially now that he's clarified that he thought the deadline was even closer than it actually is. The three possible scenarios for excusing it are: 1) he's buddy scum, 2) he's town and you know it because you're scum, 3) um...I can't think of a good third, so you'll have to help me out here.
You are basically calling me scum here for defending BM. You later dropped your suspicion of me as more people came to BM's defense, but when I spoke out first you started to really question my reasons for doing so - reasons that turned out to be correct. I didn't like this action by you, and I still don't - you stopped pushing for a BM lynch solely because others disagreed with you.
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Post Post #608 (isolation #74) » Wed Jun 20, 2007 11:14 am

Post by Guardian »

YB, I pretty much agree with that. If Adel turns up town, which I doubt, then we have three pretty much confirmed innocents between you me and MeMe. If she turns up scum, which I believe is highly likely, I will be highly suspicious of both you and MeMe tomorrow. Either way, we will have two more cop investigations (assuming we are both cops), or at the least one more... I feel we are in a good position, and, for her scummy behavior but most importantly
because I got a guilty on her
Adel seems like the obvious play for today. We should definitely discuss this and use our time, but I can't see how all roads don't lead to Adel.

MeMe, your explanation for the edit is OK... just try not to do that in the future.

Re: BM, to me, it seems like you moving off BM when other people wanted you to now looks even more like you were backing off a townie lynch when the town didn't buy your argument. When BM looked scummy to me, I voted him. I was wrong in the end, and you were right in the end, but I feel good about my reasons. I do not feel good about both your reasons for voting him and your reasons for unvoting him. BM obviously wanted MeMe's head and he died. I am not sure we can assume that BM was vigged... though I still believe it is more likely.

YB, I would like you to respond to YL....
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Post Post #612 (isolation #75) » Wed Jun 20, 2007 11:49 am

Post by Guardian »

YagamiLight wrote:Guardian, how do you get if Adel is town you, YB and MeMe are pretty much confirmed? Seems to me that if Adel comes up scum I would be worry that you might be scum claiming insane or paranoid, YB I would feel is a little less scummy because I feel one of you is a cop, and MeMe I would probably feel is less scummy due to a higher possibility of YB being the cop.
If Adel is town then I am obviously paranoid or insane. If I am not sane, then I would feel almost certain that we do have two cops (because just one paranoid/insane cop doesn't make sense) and that YB is the other cop. If YB is the other cop, and I am not sane, then he definitely would be sane. If he is sane, then MeMe would definitely be town, something that I am not feeling right now but something that I would have to logically conclude.

If Adel is scum then I am a sane cop, and YB is either an insane/naive cop or is scum. If he is insane, MeMe would be scum. If he is scum... well he's scum.

Right now, I feel Adel is scum, YB is scum, and MeMe is iffy; I don't think YB is a second cop, and I think I am sane, and I think Adel is scum.
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Post Post #614 (isolation #76) » Wed Jun 20, 2007 11:59 am

Post by Guardian »

Because I got a guilty result. I didn't want to claim my guilty result and then have him be able to change his (potentially faked) result based on that.
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Post Post #616 (isolation #77) » Wed Jun 20, 2007 12:11 pm

Post by Guardian »

YL, that is true, I would not be a confirmed innocent to the town, I based that off knowing myself that I am innocent.

I think YB and MeMe would be confirmed to the town though, because unless BOTH YB and I are lying scum, one of is a town cop, and I would hope the town would realize that YB, with me not being sane, would almost surely be a town cop in that case. And if he is a sane cop, MeMe is town.

Like I said earlier, though, I fully expect Adel to come up scum, and I think YB and MeMe would likely be the last two.
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Post Post #625 (isolation #78) » Wed Jun 20, 2007 1:29 pm

Post by Guardian »

Well Adel,

I think lynching YB, or MeMe, or I, would not make sense considering the investigation results. I think you are pretty much an obvious lynch for today. YL & Streeflo both managed not to draw much suspicion... but I am much more inclined to lynch you, who I am getting a scummy vibe from, than to lynch them, who I am getting not much of a read on. I think DogMom was scummy, but I thought Jalyn was pretty much on the up and up, so I want to hear more from her but don't like lynching her at the moment. Nanook is a possibility, but I don't really like the Nanook play either. ChaosOmega has kind of lurked; I could see him being the play today maybe.

But I really like lynching you Adel. The whole bit about how you could have lurked and not drawn suspicion is complete WIFOM, and even when you did make short posts this game I found some of them suspicious. I find it so interesting that you say there is a 50-50 shot of you being scum; either you are scum or you aren't. I think you are.
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Post Post #627 (isolation #79) » Wed Jun 20, 2007 1:58 pm

Post by Guardian »

Yay simulpost....
Adel wrote:He is some possibly valid logic. I'll try to be as clear and dispassionate as possible in the hope reducing noise as much as possible.
Hmm. I still think you are scum, but I really like this post, at least initially.
Adel wrote:1. Ecto was a townie.
True
Adel wrote:2. Ecto was killed by scum.
That seems likely to me, unless MeMe is among the scum. Even so, I don't see a vig targeting Ecto, so I am willing to assume Ecto was killed by scum. Maybe the vig thought him pursuing NanoS was scummy, though.
Adel wrote:3. At least one scum player was on the NanoS wagon
This is not necessarily true, but let's go ahead and assume that it is.
Adel wrote:4. Scum choose to kill a player they thought was obviously innocent.
Again, not necessarily true. The scum could have killed a player they thought was a power role, or that was suspicious of a scum member, or that was suspicious of someone else so they could say that that person was scum because a dead townie was suspicious of them... Yeah, I don't buy number four, I don't think. I don't like how you are speculating about the reason for the scum kill with such certainty, too.
Adel wrote:5. Scum thought Ecto was obviously innocent because he acted in what they considered a very townie way.
Again, not necessarily true.
Adel wrote:6. At least 1 Scum player, probably the most influential, acted in a way very similar to Ecto, which is why that scum player has not been under suspicion recently if at all.
Hm. If everything above is true, this makes sense.
Adel wrote:7. If we identify the player on the NanoS wagon how acted most like Ecto, that player is likely scum.
Again, if the above is true, then sure.
Adel wrote:8. Streeflo, NanookTheWolf, MeMe, Adel, Guardian, and Ecto were on the Wagon that mislynched NanoS.
This is true.
Adel wrote:9. MeMe, Adel & Guardian acted nothing like Ecto.
I think MeMe acted quite like Ecto. I said as much in a post yesterday.
Adel wrote:10. NanookTheWolf or Streeflo are scum.
If all the above is true, then yes.

I actually can see a case on Nanook. And as scum, possibly having discussed counterclaiming with YB pregame, I could see why he pointed out my breadcrumbs.... Even so, that would still point to me being a cop and you being scum. Nanook could be scum(not with YB) who just pointed me out because he saw it as the town thing to do, then realized that only scum would see it that way. So OK, potentially there is a case on Nanook.

Streeflo has attracted almost no suspicion all game. I don't particularly like lynching people solely because they haven't attracted suspicion... but he could be a lurking scum. Also, no offense Streeflo, but I don't see him being the most influential scum, whereas Nanook I could see in that position.

Adel, there were probably scum not on the NanoS wagon too. Would the above theory not apply to them, too? I think it would, and I could see you as scum using the additional information that you have accidentally and ruling those players out.

I do not 100% agree with your case, but it does have some merit. If I am indeed not sane, then you would be innocent along with MeMe and YB... and we would only have to look through five players to find the three scum... I still think you are scum though, at the moment. If you are not scum, that gives us so much information, and if you are scum, it helps us out a lot too. I am not going to move my vote at the moment, but I am going to consider this.
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Post Post #631 (isolation #80) » Wed Jun 20, 2007 4:08 pm

Post by Guardian »

This is all great that you want to leave a legacy, but I wonder to what extent responding to you is waste of time - if you are scum this is all pointless.

If you are town, then why not say that you are, and defend yourself? You say that your lynch is almost inevitable - if you think there is a better candidate - and I could possibly be convinced at this point - do so! Your resignation that you will eventually be lynched and your earlier statement that there is a 50-50 chance that you are scum really does not sit well with me.



That being said, I would like to hear what tells you have found on Streeflo.

The Nanook/Jalyn thing makes sense to me, and I would like to hear more.

I don't quite understand what you mean when you say you don't agree with my last point. You go on to say that you think the five I mentioned would be the only potential scum. Please explain.

I think Nanook, as scum, might have seen my breadcrumbs and initially thought that it would look pro-town to point them out; that it would be the obvious pro-town thing to do. Only after doing so he realized that it was actually a very bad thing for a townie to do. Basically, I can see him as thinking it was pro-town, doing it to look pro-town, and then realizing that it was very, very, anti-town.
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Post Post #635 (isolation #81) » Wed Jun 20, 2007 4:33 pm

Post by Guardian »

Adel, good catch - I saw that too while reading these last few posts.

Streeflo, please do respond. I am intrigued.
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Post Post #637 (isolation #82) » Wed Jun 20, 2007 5:08 pm

Post by Guardian »

You think that there would be a non-sane cop in a mini normal, if there was only one cop?
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Post Post #647 (isolation #83) » Wed Jun 20, 2007 6:30 pm

Post by Guardian »

CO, interesting catch there. I saw that, but then I dismissed it because after my bread crumbing fiasco, I didn't think that Adel would be that obvious. Also... Adel isn't close to lynch yet nor has she had a chance to claim. Like Adel said, outing power roles is bad.
Streeflo wrote:Having one insane cop would be a really twisted flair. The one cop would probably be sane though. I put sanity unknown but I'd assume sane.
Your list of suspicions (YB lying and me as a real cop AND Adel being town) means that I would have to be that lone insane cop.
FoS: Streeflo
; that strikes me the wrong way.

My comments in bold (I snipped some parts that didn't seem that important):
Adel wrote:
Guardian wrote:If you are town, then why not say that you are, and defend yourself?
I say that I am town, and Guardian says that he is a cop.
possibilities:
1. I am lying, Guardian is a sane cop.
2. I am town, Guardian is lying.
3. I am town, Guardian is insane or paranoid.

I think 3. is the most likely possibility.
So surprised you didn't pick 1...
If I was scum would I've been that outspoken against two townies?
complete WIFOM
The only other player that made a case against both BM and NanoS was Guardian. Dogmom/Jayln briefly voted for BM and NanoS then placed that weird final vote on Adel right before the deadline. Guardian and I have the same voting pattern, while being adversarial most of the game. That implies a shared alignment. Notice my votes do not follow his, this could not be a pattern I made happen.
Guardian wrote:Your resignation that you will eventually be lynched and your earlier statement that there is a 50-50 chance that you are scum really does not sit well with me.
Every point that was raised against me yesterday I responded to with many many words. I've said my peace. As for your result from last night, i think I've covered that as much as is needed.
You completely ignored answering my suspicions here; you changed the subject.

Guardian wrote:That being said, I would like to hear what tells you have found on Streeflo.
No interaction with other players, cocks his vote on Nano with a FoS, then hammers for the deadline. His vote was late and unoriginal. I hold his ability to write well against him as well- he did not generate any real arguments yesterday, and I think he is capable of it.
Has he demonstrated such an ability? You seem to be grasping at straws. He had plenty of analysis on the other players; just not FOS's or votes that you can put in your graphic.

Guardian wrote:The Nanook/Jalyn thing makes sense to me, and I would like to hear more.
The graphic holds most of the information. The separation between the two is odd, Jalyn's late vote for me is odd, having a canceled vote on two dead townies is odd. The choices for who gets an FoS stand out to me as well. 3 townies and a scum buddy, or two townies and 2 scum buddies would seem about right. Note enough for me to vote on, but... I wasn't suspicious of Dogmom yesterday, but having the two confirmed townies makes it a little more clear.
I am not sure how much I trust the graphic as representing all interactions, but I semi-buy an interaction here, and see both as independently scummy


Guardian wrote:I don't quite understand what you mean when you say you don't agree with my last point. You go on to say that you think the five I mentioned would be the only potential scum. Please explain.
The point I refered to was that my posts today would be useful even if I were scum... I don;t thinkn they would be.
I wasn't trying to make that point, and don't think I did. What I said was that we would gain information from your death - your posts yesterday and people's defenses of you will tell tales.

Guardian wrote:I think Nanook, as scum, might have seen my breadcrumbs and initially thought that it would look pro-town to point them out; that it would be the obvious pro-town thing to do. Only after doing so he realized that it was actually a very bad thing for a townie to do. Basically, I can see him as thinking it was pro-town, doing it to look pro-town, and then realizing that it was very, very, anti-town.
The problem is I could see him making the same series of decisions if he were town. It isn't something that sways me either way.
I see what you mean here, but I think he would be more inclined to do it quickly if he were doing it to make himself look pro town than if he were doing it because he actually thought outing a "cop claim" would be pro town.
Adel wrote:
Adel wrote: The only other player that made a case against both BM and NanoS was Guardian. Dogmom/Jayln briefly voted for BM and NanoS then placed that weird final vote on Adel right before the deadline.
oops, MeMe did as well. Even worse, my vote usually did follow hers. At least that fits my theory that MeMe (cleared by a sane cop YB) and Guardian (insane cop) share a town alignment.
Well, at least you pointed this out, but I was about to. This fits right into you and MeMe both being scum. I am becoming increasingly convinced that you are the play.
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Post Post #655 (isolation #84) » Thu Jun 21, 2007 7:10 pm

Post by Guardian »

Image
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Post Post #659 (isolation #85) » Fri Jun 22, 2007 9:09 am

Post by Guardian »

In seriousness, Nanook made some good points and I would like to address them.
NanookTheWolf wrote:Adel does raise some very interesting points to say the least, and for whatever reason Guardian has this cockiness that just reeks of scum .. (hard to explain it).
It is hard not to be "cocky" when you get a guilty result on someone...
NanookTheWolf wrote:If Adel is lynched today it won't prove either of our cop's sanity btw .. Unless of course Guardian investigates a pro-town role that gets killed tonight .. Otherwise if he gets another guilty tonight it could mean he's either sane or paranoid.
Good point. I assume a two cop game would be sane/insane as that is the most common, but sane/paranoid works too...
NanookTheWolf wrote:I'm getting a slight scummy vibe from Meme as well at the moment, but only because she seems to be avoiding the primary conversation (The cops bit) .. but it could just be lack of interest on her part for all I know ....
I agree, though I am getting more than a slightly scummy vibe.
NanookTheWolf wrote:I can't say whether I really have any suspicions lying towards Jalyn or not, because for the most part of the game .. between him and dogmom .. they were pretty quite and Jalyn didn't really get into the game until near the deadline.

I would like to hear some thoughts from Jalyn though.
Definitely.
NanookTheWolf wrote:YogurtBandit I believe is scum and just find his innocent result to be a safe one as well as easy one. He could have easily just chosen Meme to use as an innocent for an easy claim, but that's just my opinion. Nothing he's done has proven him town in my eyes.
Yeah, can't say I disagree here. He isn't the lynch for today, but he looks like a great candidate for tomorrow.
NanookTheWolf wrote:Guardian I have issues with only because he goes back and forth about how he feels, and expresses the feelings strongly which makes it hard to believe him.. I think that he too could possibly be scum and either A.) Outing a fellow scum .. or B.) Making a Gambit .. Although he could really be the cop as well, but this argument dates back to Guardian's breadcrumbing as well.
If you want to see this exact behavior read the final pages of AM mafia, I identified the two scum but got mis lynched for switching back and forth but feeling strongly whenever I switched.
NanookTheWolf wrote:YagamiLight is pretty much town in my eyes for the moment, but I haven't done much reading on him either, but the reading that I have done seems adequate.
No read here...
NanookTheWolf wrote:I'd like to lynch Adel in hopes that he really is scum based on Guardian's result, but I'm scared as well due to Guardian/Adel could be pulling one over on the town as well, which would be great play on their part. Adel's earlier comment on him and Guardian would make a great team does bare evidence to that, and makes me hesitant.
This feels a lot like Adel's case on you and me earlier Nanook. I assure you that this is not the case; Adel I think is scum, but I am not scum with her.
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Post Post #660 (isolation #86) » Fri Jun 22, 2007 9:10 am

Post by Guardian »

This was meant to be included at the top of the previous post. Oh well.

YB, I got Adel's post as a joke, and responded in kind. I
do
wonder what her reasons for feeling the need to post a joke... But a confirm x 5 vote? That seems like something of an overreaction. Adel, after my post, you say I have no sense of humor? :roll:.
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Post Post #673 (isolation #87) » Mon Jun 25, 2007 9:03 am

Post by Guardian »

Really!? After I got in so much trouble for breadcrumbing!? The BM kill makes sense, though...

I am really tempted to believe that you are scum fishing for a counter claim, but unless someone does counter you,
unvote: Adel
for now.

What the hell was with the joking around and the wine is right in front of you stuff, then?


Hmm. Assuming you are town, that would make me non-sane.... Wow, yeah I really reject that - me being paranoid/insane would make YB very likely to be a sane cop, and that would mean you, MeMe, and YB are all town...? Could I be non-sane and YB be scum? I don't think so...

I am either really off on my read this game, or you are lying scum.

I am not sure if I would advise the real vigilante to counter claim right now (if it is not Adel)... it would make our decision very easy but I'm not sure if we want more power roles claimed at this point...

This game
really
deserves a re-read now.
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Post Post #683 (isolation #88) » Mon Jun 25, 2007 11:52 am

Post by Guardian »

MeMe is wiser than I. Everyone should be claiming if they are the vigilante or not. If no one counter claims, from my perspective we have four semi-confirmed / very likely townies: MeMe(!), YB (!!), Adel (!?!?!), and myself.

Obviously, I'm NOT the vig.
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Post Post #692 (isolation #89) » Mon Jun 25, 2007 4:57 pm

Post by Guardian »

The following assumes Adel is a vig, which even though I don't find her pro-town at all from her play, is a pretty good assumption if no one counter claims....


Adel, it depends on if we lynch town or scum.

If we lynch scum, then look for who has connections with them, and shoot them if you feel pretty good about it. We should lynch someone with the intent to consider having you vig kill one of their partners. You do not have to shoot though, as a no kill is definitely better than a miskill...

If we lynch town, however, unless you are like, 100% sure you have found scum, don't kill. If you miskill, and scum successfully kill, then it would be 3-3 town/scum, which is a loss for us.

Like I said, I owe this game a re-read, and in the near future I am going to put my scum hunting goggles on and scour these posts. Hopefully I find a pretty good lynch candidate...
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Post Post #721 (isolation #90) » Wed Jun 27, 2007 3:41 am

Post by Guardian »

Well, I'm 5 pages into a re-read analysis, but I read the last few posts... and wow I think YL is right, at least in that Adel must be lying about someone - I thought this independently when I read the first post. Shot most definitely seems to be a mafia kill, and strangled a vig kill.

Adel, what are you lying about, and why?
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Post Post #722 (isolation #91) » Wed Jun 27, 2007 3:42 am

Post by Guardian »

someone->something*
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Post Post #730 (isolation #92) » Wed Jun 27, 2007 5:05 am

Post by Guardian »

MeMe, I am a town cop, and I can see your logic, but I am a town cop.

I almost feel
sorry
for us if the town is going to take your word as gospel here, because I am town. :roll:

I'll finish the re-read tonight, hopefully.
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Post Post #735 (isolation #93) » Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:14 pm

Post by Guardian »

Hey, I am writing this simultaneuously as I re-read, so apologies in advance if it is skethcy in places.


First, I want to do a bit of analysis on YB and my possible sanities. Adel pretty much has to be a Vig, making Adel town, making me non sane, givivng a lot of credence to YB being another cop.

I must be paranoid or insane. I cannot be sane or naieve.
YB must be sane, insane, or naieve. He cannot be paranoid.

I would guess YB is sane, as I don't think I have seen two cop setups without at least one sane cop, but it is possible. One thing that gives me doubt is Theo's big thanks to Ms. Kelly Chen for looking the setup over; for all we know the varying cop sanities is what needed looking over. Also, with (I assume, since neither I or YB was blocked) no mafia roleblocker, could there be a godfather? I kind of wonder, as two cops and a vig, seems powerfule for town. Possibly there is not one though, if the cop sanities are weird enough.

Moving on, If I get an innocent result, we will know that I am insane. Otherwhise, I could be paranoid, and whoever I investigate could be town, could be scum, no real tell.

YB, if he gets a guilty, is either sane or insane, again imo likely sane. If he keeps getting innocents, he is either sane insane or naieve, agan imo most likely sane, though possibly naieve. If YB comes up with another innocent, I would find it hard to believe that he managed two find two scum in a row, especially if one of the three scum is a godfather.


Full game analysis:

Nanook's post 13 where he overanalyzes his random vote was kinda odd...

ChaosOmega's 19 where he votes with no other words strikes me as odd, I never like it when people do that.

Streeflo and I get into an interesting argument about his unvote, I still think his quick unvote of YB was suspicious - and notice how he was wary of voting ever since.

NanoS finds Nanook scummy now and for most of the game, fwiw... And interestingly defends Streeflo's unvote.

YB in 44 'realizes' that he voted Nekka-Lucifer, and vote CO.

I will say
for the record
, if YB is a second cop and Adel is the vig, which seems more than likely at this point, you two sure as hell could have fooled me based on your play - and did, before Adel claimed. There is something I must be missing about Adel's claim, though -
re-read the opening post
. The mayor was killed by a bullet - which implies a mafia kill. Then BattleMage was shot, which implies the same type of kill, no? I would assume strangled is the vig kill, since the mayor was shot by the mafia. But Adel is the only claimed vig, and she said she targeted BattleMage. This is confusing me.
Mod
, exactly how relevant are the kill methods?
Notice how I was going to ask this as soon as I posted my pbpa. When YL posted the analysis that agreed with my line of thinking, I decided YL must be right, but MeMe, seriously, I just wanted to get to the bottom of what happened last night, nothing more. The mod's post about how kill methods don't matter makes this all irrelevant, but that information was not there for YL and I in our analysis.


Streeflo unvotes in post 53, and doesn't make another vote until he gets on near the end of the NanoS wagon...

In post 62 Nanook outs me... At the time I thought he had to be town doing it, but looking back, it seems to me that he could have been scum and thought it would look town, and done it immediately for that reason. As little reason as scum would have to out me (to try and look townlike?), townies have absolutely no reason to out a power role that early in the game.

Adel comes up with her Nanook + me = partners hypothesis... I still think the idea of us pre-planning that is ludacrous - honestly, me as scum breadcruming alone is silly - but Nanook's responses get interesting at this point...

72, I stand corrected, Streeflo votes Nanook. And Nanook is looking scummy at this point in the game.

74, Nanook talks about how how he would have known there was no night if he had a night choice to make. To me, that seems like he is trying to look vanilla townie on purpose...

78, Nanook makes a very clear point that he never used the lines "If I were mafia", and tries to shift focus to me.

81, Nanook says explicitly he is trying to make himself look good, and again tries to shift focus onto me for bringing up the argument he has been supporting.

83, YL implies that we should test if I am a cop by having me investigate someone and lynching them, and then seeing if I find the investigation accurate. Even on an innocent result, YL?

89, by DogMom, I don't like. She unvotes Adel (why?) and FoS's me and Nanook (why?). Scum casting suspicion around I feel.

95 by YL looks legit, and casts suspicion on Nanook for good reasons.

99, MeMe triest to catch Nekka in a post restriction. I am really not sure how I feel about that one. I (foolishly?) saved Nekka from that; to me it seems like MeMe scum could be trying to trap Nekka.

100, YB outs himself as cop (at least to me). The two doc speculation makes absolutely no sense, but again, YB is an almost confirmed cop, so I'll let it slide.

I paused here, MeMe accused me etc., picking up the re-read…....

I realize I have not the effort to do the above for the full 30 pages. Re-read, comments later. Also, looking at the above, I do not know how helpful it will be. But I will post it, so maybe you will be able to gain some insight into my thoughts...



Ok. Done reading. I think we have four likely scum. In my eyes, unless there is a godfather (Meme? :x), which I find not likely and think we should deal with later, if at all, MeMe, YB, Adel, and I are almost certainly town.

That mens there are three scum among YL, CO, Jalyn, Streeflo, and Nanook.

Thoughts on each, after the re-read:

YL: Not the play for today. Good thoughts, good content, trying to make sense of everything, nothing that reveals having too much information. Of the five non confirmed, YL seems the most town like to me.

CO: Lurker. Little original thought. Very obviously rejects Adel's theory that lurkers = scum, backs away slightly in the next post. High possibility of scum, may be other scummy people in the lurking category. Not many original opinions, follower, longest post of the game was outing yet another power role… Also defends DogMom, and distances from Streeflo, interesting associations. Also, he was behind voting for YB yesterday. In my eyes, CO is the play for today. I think he will turn up scum, and two of the following three will be scum along with him.

Streeflo: Has been very careful throwing around suspicion all game, really, I don’t like that. Not associated with ChaosOmega in my eyes, but one of the two is very likely scum imo. He dances around the ‘thinks Adel is protown, but that there are two cops’ issue a lot, there is something fishy there, too. I like CO as scum better, but I would not be disappointed with a Streeflo lynch.

Nanook: Before Adel claimed he was very willing to lynch her, and also he tried to cast doubt on both claimed cops in his recent analysis. Also, though I do not put much stock into this, NanoS was highly suspicious of him. That, in addition to his reasons for outing me, make him also seem like not a bad choice.

Jalyn: DogMom’s putting the either or case on me and YB seemed suspect to me, it’s like she definitely wanted one of us lynched. Other than that, DogMom had some useful input and made sense, though. Jalyn’s play has been pretty straightforward and townlike, in my eyes. I don’t think she is the play for today though.

Really, any of the middle three would be good choices for today's lynch imo. Jalyn I definitely want to hear more from before deadline - I want to hear more from everyone before deadline, obviously, but Jalyn is the most lacking recently.



All that being said.
vote: ChaosOmega
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Post Post #740 (isolation #94) » Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:15 pm

Post by Guardian »

FWIW, Look at AM Mafia, the only game I was in that is finished. I replaced in at lylo and found both scum, but was lynched for the same kind of behavior. I attack people strongly, but I back down if I change my mind. That's me.


MeMe, I don't think 'MeMe could be scum' is crap at all. YB and I both asked and were told (
me first
, I might as well point out) that we do not and will not ever know our alignment. For all we know YB is naive. Or insane. I assume that he is sane, and that you are not a godfather, which is why I am not pushing for a MeMe lynch today, and will probably not tomorrow, but I could envision you being anti-town.

I don't like your reasons for getting on OR getting off the BM wagon, mainly, and saying that "I've believed he had a good chance of being scum ever since I saw the breadcrumbing" makes absolutely no sense to me - you think that it would be
more likely
for me as scum to breadcrumb cop than for me as, I dunno, a COP?! I had never breadcrumbed before this game, and did so because I got a power role and thought it might be useful for claiming later in the game to have done so.

YB and Adel are nearly 100% confirmed in my eyes, you are not.

That being said, I do not think you are the most likely to be scum. I just think that you
could
be scum.

There is a better case for lynching CO, Nanook, Streeflo, and possibly even Jalyn. I think the three scum will be found in that grouping.
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Post Post #745 (isolation #95) » Thu Jun 28, 2007 11:39 am

Post by Guardian »

First off, one great reason NOT to be voting me is that I will have an investigation result tomorrow if I survive. If you lynch me and YB gets NK'd we have nothing. With both of us alive we are guaranteed to have even more to go by tomorrow, even if you decide to lynch me then, which you shouldn't.

I think CO is the best of many good plays for today, the others being Streeflo and Nanook. I am going to do a pbpa of CO's posts, and point out why I think he is a much better candidate than I for lynch.

0 - Just vote, no words. I always find that suspicious. Random stage of the game, though.
1 - One word, explaining the previous one... Neither of these matters that much, still random stage...
2 - Active lurking
3 - Votes YB for... posting a lot. Thinks I
and
Nannok are town, interestingly.
4 - Explains YB is at three to lynch...
5 -
Reacts strongly
in opposition to Adel's theory that the non-frequent posters should be lynched; he and his scum buddies are among them?
6 - Continues to disagree with Adel's theory
7 - Says he is voting YB for the fluff...
8 - says YB has had 6 content full posts of 35, can't say I disagree too much.
9 - Long post for him. He lays out scenarios of the cops being scum and town, and concludes that I am very likely town, and YB may be also. Scum with too much information, and knows for sure that neither cop is scum? Votes for Adel for reasons I don't disagree with.
10 - Finally responds to me on DogMom and YB. He thinks Jalyn is town. Interesting. Still thinks YB is scummy for... voting the person he finds most scummy? Now he can't find YB scummy anymore, I assume he will try and push for my lynch today.
11 - unvotes to get Nanos lynched. Not scummy.
12 - bandwagon for YB's result first.
13 - Makes his
most analytical post of the game to out the vigilante

14 - Now that YB is likely town, he 'doesn't know' about me.
15 - Didn't read the first post, I didn't either, not scummy.
16 - Doesn't like that he was voted for outing the vig and not outing scum...
17 - Points out the first post info.
18 - Doesn't like how he was voted for outing the vig and not outing scum...

Looking back at the posts, he has had major suspicions of two players in the game (Adel and YB), and did anything substanital to build a case on only one of them Adel (post 9). He has found more people town-like (me, Nanook, Jalyn) than he has found scummy in this game - good townies are suspicious of most people; I think here he was covering for his scum buddies and trying to make friends.

Also noteworthy, is that in a game with 2 week deadlines, he often has gaps of 4-6 days between posts. That and the content of his posts looks to me like he is posting just enough to get away with lurking.

I think he does have analytical skills that he is not using, as demonstrated by post 13. I thought Adel was suspicious when she pointed this out earlier, but now I can really see her point - he could be searching for scum but is not. I think ChaosOmega is more interested in staying in the shadows than finding scum, and am happy with my vote on him.

I think there are cases for Streeflo and Nanook two, and would not be surprised if those three made the scum group, but I am most sure about ChaosOmega being scum.
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Post Post #749 (isolation #96) » Fri Jun 29, 2007 4:59 am

Post by Guardian »

Happy Birthday to Streeflo Votecount


Chaos Omega 4 - Adel, Guardian, Streeflo, YogurtBandit
Guardian 2 - MeMe, Jalyn


5 to lynch.

Deadline is ~2 days away.

--

CO is at minus one
, FYI... I would like to hear more from him before anyone hammers, if he has anything to say in his defense or any "last suspicions".

Jalyn, if your join date is not reflective of your experience, let me know, but I have read at least one or two mini games with two cops of varying sanities, and I've only read about 30 games.... Surely you have more to go on at this point?

You are getting further away from YL and much closer to ChaosOmega, Streeflo, and Nanook in my list of possible scum.


I may present cases on Nanook and Streeflo before day's end, in case I don't make it through the night.
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Post Post #750 (isolation #97) » Fri Jun 29, 2007 5:02 am

Post by Guardian »

Nanook, what are your thoughts at the moment? Care to vote or FOS?

Streeflo, who do you suspect other than CO and myself? Do you think CO and I are likely to be scum partners?
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Post Post #754 (isolation #98) » Fri Jun 29, 2007 8:50 am

Post by Guardian »

^I very much agree with that.

Mine is closer to CO + Nanook + Streeflo, if CO isn't scum then Jalyn is the obvious fill in. YB and Adel are confirmed, and YL and MeMe are both likely town.
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Post Post #758 (isolation #99) » Fri Jun 29, 2007 10:58 am

Post by Guardian »

ChaosOmega wrote:The 3 people I am most suspicious of are Guardian, Streeflo, and Jalyn.
I understand the last two, but like I said I think you are hoping to get a cop lynched today.
ChaosOmega wrote:Guardian: Breadcrumbing early is fine, but you did it multiple times in the first couple of pages. With that many, they were bound to be found sooner rather than later.
I was gonna breadcrumb a few times and then stop, so it wouldn't look like three words randomly had c - o - p beginnings. If I did it too much, my bad.
ChaosOmega wrote:Also, doing it that much that soon could be seen as you wanting someone to find it early, so you could claim cop and not have much suspicion on you in the beginning.
I don't see how anyone would want their breadcrumbs to be seen that early - they are there to give credence later in the game. Like, it
could
be seen that way, but that was not what was going on.
ChaosOmega wrote:Reading over the second day again, I think you knew Adel was vig before I posted anything about it.
I thought there was a possibility of it, yes, but I didn't think as vig she would make it so obvious with the "who do I vig?" plan after YB
and
I got outed. Also, with her saying that she was not the vig in between when you posted and when I posted, I assumed that she was, ya know,
not
the vig.
ChaosOmega wrote:When I posted it, both you and Adel played it off. It was understandable for her to do so; she wanted to cover up the fact she was vig. You, on the other hand, just wanted it to be swept under the rug so Adel could still be lynched.
Like I said, I didn't think she would show vig that obviously, and start doing so
after
YB and I were outed. Obviously, I was wrong...
ChaosOmega wrote:You said that you noticed it as well, but figured she wouldn't do that after your breadcrumbing. Also, having you later suggest that no one counter claim her has already been shown to be a bad move. As soon as that was pointed out, all you did was go "MeMe is smart, listen to her, I don't know what I'm doing".
I still felt that she was very scummy, and I didn't want to out the real vig, whoever they were. However, after MeMe posted, I realized that if no one countered, Adel would be confirmed, and that would help us out a lot. That combined with the (in my eyes slight) possibility that she was indeed being
that
obvious about being vig, made me realize that it was a good idea.
ChaosOmega wrote:And you saying this:
Guardian wrote:me as scum breadcruming alone is silly
is pretty ridiculous. Why can't scum breadcrumb? And if that's the case, why wasn't all your doubt of Adel absolved after you noticed her breadcrumbs?
Scum can breadcrumb. But just... I wouldn't. I personally know this, I guess it is not reasonable for me to expect you to know this, but this is the first game I've ever breadcrumbed, and I am a cop.

Adel's 'breadcrumbing' was entirely different, and much more "obvious". If anyone was going to bring it up, I wanted her to. I thought she was really scummy and that it could have been just one more of her "game theories" to try and make her look pro-town.
ChaosOmega wrote:Streeflo: You seem very bandwagony. As soon as someone is seen to be suspicious, you jump on them. Right after MeMe voted for Guardian and explained why, you immediately put a FoS on him. After people mention that what I did was suspicious, you put a vote on me. After Nanook was confused about whether the game started in day or night, you voted him. And most of your votes have been followed with quick unvotes, like you don't want to seem as the reason someone got lynched.
I agree with this, though I suspect bussing.
ChaosOmega wrote:After you said that that you believe Adel is vig, you posted this:
Streeflo wrote:I'm pretty sure Adel is the one who killed BM, regardless scum or vig.
I don't like that litle thing tagged on at the end. Are you trying to say you still think Adel could be scum? It was said casually, like you were just trying to plant a seed of doubt.
I'd like to see Streeflo respond to this indeed.
ChaosOmega wrote:Jalyn: I don't have much of a case on you. While DogMom was playing, I was a little suspicious of her, but her posts had good content. When you replaced for her, though, the good content stopped coming. Maybe you replaced, saw you were scum, and decided to lay low.
I can see this as a possiblity, too.
ChaosOmega wrote:I know, it's a guess, but I think YagamiLight and Nanook are more innocent than you, and if Guardian's scum, that means YogurtBandit is a sane cop and MeMe is most likely town.
This is true, I am a cop though...


Three things - I just
knew
ChaosOmega was going to try and make a case on me after I built one on him. Read his posts, yesterday I was practically confirmed in his eyes. Now, that YB is surely a cop, he finds me suspicious.

I think probably one or maybe even both of Streeflo and Jalyn is scum with him and he is bussing in case he gets lynched, but his ideal play is going to be me.


Also, why do you think Nanook is town?


Lastly, and this has a lot to do with why I think he is scummy: This post, quite possibly his most content full of the game, came only when he was at lynch -1! I think that speaks volumes. He has been trying to lie low, and only now that he is about to be lynched does he come out of the shadows.

At this point, I would like CO to defend himself from my case if he disagrees with it, and to explain why he hasn't been making posts like the above one all game. I think his play this game illustrates
why
lurking is scummy.
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Post Post #760 (isolation #100) » Fri Jun 29, 2007 12:19 pm

Post by Guardian »

NanoS was not capable of more. Even when he was heavily under attack, and about to be lynched, all he could muster was that he did not understand why his post was scummy.
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Post Post #765 (isolation #101) » Sat Jun 30, 2007 5:02 am

Post by Guardian »

Indeed, MeMe. YL's post seemed really rushed, but I'd like to hear more from YL about this...


Taking a page out of Adel's book:

fwr. orgNmrglNn bSge ghNofgrkyboiegf Ntaf geNNgtnNk
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Post Post #767 (isolation #102) » Sat Jun 30, 2007 8:44 am

Post by Guardian »

I can accept that it was a rushed typo, and I agree with you.

One thing I didn't emphasize, but that I do find scummy, is how CO unvoted Adel to cause separation and to ensure the lynch, but didn't vote NanoS - he wanted someone (NanoS) to be lynched, but didn't want to be responsible for the lynch.
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Post Post #770 (isolation #103) » Sat Jun 30, 2007 12:56 pm

Post by Guardian »

I am posting the following in V/LA and in my sig and in all my games: Hey guys, I will be at the beach with
LA: July 1 - July 8
, I may post some more tonight or tomorrow morning, but after that for a week I will have limited access or no access. There may be places to access the internet at the beach, and I will try to get on once or twice, especially in the games with strict deadlines, but the main purpose of vacation is to recreate and be more detached etc., so if I don't get a chance to post that is why. I ask that I please not be replaced anywhere, I will be super active again when I get back, I will just be gone for this time period. Any games with night/pm-choices, I have pre-sent them in where applicable. See you in a week!
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Post Post #771 (isolation #104) » Sat Jun 30, 2007 1:23 pm

Post by Guardian »

Don't lynch: me, YB, Adel, MeMe, YL.

Lynch: CO.
Good alternatives: Streeflo, Nanook, Jalyn.

I don't have much more to say at the moment - if I finish packing early (doubtful) I could make the case on Nanook and Streeflo too, but I think I'll just save it for tomorrow. I pre-sent in my investigation target to Theo, like I said in my V/LA message.

Anyone thinking about lynching me: Don't, if for no other reason than that I am a cop and not lynching me will give us even more information to go on tomorrow. If you don't lynch me we'll have at least one more investigation result.
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Post Post #915 (isolation #105) » Fri Jul 20, 2007 1:24 pm

Post by Guardian »

Wow, that was a trip! First game won on mafiascum, wooh :). Of five that have finished -.-.

I have to say I really liked how my scum team played, considering we had a godfather that never got investigated vs. three town power roles.


I agree somewhat that the town was at fault, but
Streeflo, that was an absolutely amazing tracker claim
you pulled off! Major, major props. Jalyn, winning endgame was crucial as well, well done! It was a pleasure guys, thanks.

Especially Streeflo, he was quite humble about his playing in night chat, but in the end he played excellently!

Jalyn suggested killing MeMe night one, and I convinced the team otherwise -- firstly I felt bad to metagame MeMe like that, secondly I thought I had a decent case on her, and thirdly I thought Erotomachia actually had a good idea of what was going on, too. It turned out that MeMe was a much better play as she largely convinced the town that I was faking and because YB investigated her. Oh well, live and learn, I guess. She theoretically could have been doc protected, though -- we shall see.


I knew YB was a real cop, obviously, but we were going to try and get him lynched day two so he wasn't the play.

I also knew Adel was the vig after day one, but I did *not* want her dead as her vigging wasn't really helping the town that much; sadly it did in the end with Streeflo getting obviously killed, but I was happy to keep Adel around to vig YL, the doc who I was obviously paired with :lol:.

YL I never had any idea was a doc, but it was easy to pair myself with him and Nanook so I took the opportunity and it worked out.



Jalyn, I honestly question busing me day two, but it worked out in the end, so well done :). A CO lynch would have been crucial, but it might have been suspicious, so all's well that ends well. You were very much right about killing MeMe, hehe.

It was great fun playing with all of you, I loved the entire cast -- thanks for the experience!
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Post Post #916 (isolation #106) » Fri Jul 20, 2007 1:28 pm

Post by Guardian »

Theo -- great modding -- I love the 2 week deadlines, the night scenes, the setup even -- thank you for it. I sent theo some funny PMs over the course of the game, lol, including one where I predicted day 2 that Nanook would be our last mislynch if we managed to win.
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