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Post Post #700 (ISO) » Sat Jun 23, 2007 8:45 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

wait so if you're saying 2 masons act incredibly scummy, the protown play is to LYNCH one of them day one INSTEAD of investigate on night one?(This is incredibly shoddy logic, lynching a claimed mason is NEVER a slam dunk when an investigative option is available)

It is just incredilby stupid to lynch a claimed mason on day 1, if they are actually scum, the cop will find them and the game will be a slam dunk win for the town since 2 scum go down right away after cop reveals investigation. It DOES NOT MATTER WHAT THOSE TWO MASONS ARE DOING, AS SOON AS THEY CLAIM MASON THEY SHOULD BECOME COMPLETELY UNTOUCHABLE AT SUCH AN EARLY STAGE IN THE GAME.

What is thin about my theory Nai?

I didn't say that Glork was setting up this SPECIFIC thing since day 1, my point was that Glork had been setting up for a Lepton Gambit with his Messenger role since day 1, it just HAPPENS that LyLo is happening today, if your role hadn't existed, he'd be pulling the same stunt tommorrow.

Don't you think it's just a little bit of a coincidence that our "cop" happens to get innocents the previous days and just happens to hit his "guilty" exactly on LyLo?

Oh and on the nightkill thing, Massive IS less confirmed than Carbon Copy and Primate is an obvious nonfactor since his power is worthless in the endgame anyway.
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Post Post #701 (ISO) » Sat Jun 23, 2007 9:26 pm

Post by Glork »

Well, Skruffs... yes, I'm fishing.

I am confident that there is no Mafia Roleblocker or Mafia Redirector. I think that they would have just chosen to screw with my night action if there were one.

If you or Carbon Copy can kill, then we have two possible courses of action:
1) Lynch Pooky. If he is town, Theo vigges Glork and Skruffs/CC vigges Miztef. We would both necessarily be scum, given that I would've lied about my investigation, and Miztef would have lied about me being Fred/Innocent.
2) Lynch
ME
today. Once I turn up as a Cop, then Pooky could be vigged by Theo, and DGB could be vigged by you/CC. We would avoid the insta-loss, unless DGB is not actually scum. And the way she's sided with Pooky, it's pretty obviously balls-to-the-wall that they're trying to push for a mislynch/victory against me. But if we can foil their plan by going two-for-one, I think we're in good shape, unless my math is horribly wrong or DGB is completely terrible at this game.

(Of course, now that I think about it, this also fails if Skruffs is the Godfather and simply lies to us, so I'm not even confident that I'd trust a response coming from him -- really, I want to hear from Carbon Copy.)

Anyway, the idea is that if,
even in the event of a mislynch
, we can set up for *AT LEAST* one scumbag to die via vigging, then we are *NOT* in LyLo, and we can TEST my claim (to an extent... I suppose it's possible that Pooky and I could both be gambiting scum) by simply lynching either one of us. Now obviously, I would suggest Pooky in this case (claimed Cop versus claimed Replacement, and one of us must be scum)... but that's really up to the rest of the town to decide.

Pooky wrote:It is just incredilby stupid to lynch a claimed mason on day 1, if they are actually scum, the cop will find them and the game will be a slam dunk win for the town since 2 scum go down right away after cop reveals investigation. It DOES NOT MATTER WHAT THOSE TWO MASONS ARE DOING, AS SOON AS THEY CLAIM MASON THEY SHOULD BECOME COMPLETELY UNTOUCHABLE AT SUCH AN EARLY STAGE IN THE GAME. [/qoute]
If you believe this to be true, why didn't you
SAY
anything on Day One?

Pooky wrote:Don't you think it's just a little bit of a coincidence that our "cop" happens to get innocents the previous days and just happens to hit his "guilty" exactly on LyLo?
This is a ridculous insinuation. The odds of me getting a guilty the first night were, assuming 3 scum, 3/12. The odds of me getting a guilty the second night were slightly better than 3/11 (for a non-random investigation). The odds of me getting a guilty last night would have been significantly better than 3/8.

Are you saying that statistically speaking, getting Innocent, Innocent, Guilty is an anomoly? A coincidence? Are you saying that after two day/night cycles of investigations, lynchings, and
observations of behavior
, it's mere chance that a Cop might hit a guilty on the third time around?
Because if you are, you're either an idiot or you're being deliberately misleading. And I know, sir, that you are not an idiot.
Pooky wrote:Oh and on the nightkill thing, Massive IS less confirmed than Carbon Copy and Primate is an obvious nonfactor since his power is worthless in the endgame anyway.
Now Pooky's trying to have his cake *AND* eat it, too. Now he is trying to discredit the validity/innocence of an effective mason-pair, whereas earlier he was claiming that having several mason-pairs was broken in favor of the town (which would only be the case if they could be confirmed innocent).
Primate (town) vouched for certainty that Massive was town. This is known. Massive cannot get much more "confirmed" than that. I'll grant you that Massive may have been "less confirmed" than CC if you compare like 98% to 100%, but that's an insignificant difference. Again, you're trying to misrepresent the facts to suit your own purposes.
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Post Post #702 (ISO) » Sat Jun 23, 2007 9:57 pm

Post by Nai »

Pooky, your entire thing here relies on so many random variables it isn't funny. It's a series of events pulled out of the ass of a player that could only POSSIBLY work if, and only if, every single thing is right. There are so many that could be wrong that your thing is paper thin.

To begin with, no, I don't think it's out of the question. The further we go, the more investigations done, the higher chance of finding scum.

Right now, Pooky, I trust you MUCH less than I trust Glork. I'm currently looking at Theo, DG, and Pooky for a scum team.
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Post Post #703 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 4:16 am

Post by Skruffs »

Glrok, maybe I didn't say this before, but I may have already used my vig, and if I didn't, I have no way of knowing which action I use each night. :( Asking me to vig someone is very very unreliable, because I can't, necessarily. The only thing I can be relatively sure happened was that when I targetted Phoebus night one I wound up getting an inspection on myself. Which could be a redirecter.
If it only takes three to lynch Nai since the beginning of the game.. wait, how many votes has Nai been up to - when UberTimy claimed, wasn't he alerady at three?
*goes to check*
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Post Post #704 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 5:01 am

Post by Skruffs »

Okay, yeah, Nai was 3 to vote when UT claimed yesterday - confirmed by vote counts.
If there was three scum, they could have quicklynched him yesterday. Interesting.
Hmm. They would have suffered for it, though.
Too bad Nai's not inspected, it would have been really useful to know if she's going to be collateral for the town. :P One of Pooky or Glork have to be scum, though.
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Post Post #705 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 7:45 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Zpooky has shot so many holes in Glork's arguments, Glork has been ripped to shreds. It's just a gut feeling, it's hard to put into words, but I feel that Pooky has the interest of the town at heart, while Glork is plotting something in broad daylight.

Not one to stop digging his own grave, Glorkscum now lumps me and Pooky as scumbuddies, while claiming loudly that one of either Pooky or himself have to be scum. WIFOM much, Glork?

I wouldn't hitch my wagon on Pooky's star if I didn't believe his argument. I know he can be wily, and I hope I am not being a fool, but I do think I'd be a bigger fool going along with Glork's dangerous plan, especially considering how he's taken the town for a ride two days in row. Fool me once, fool me twice, blah blah blah.

Since I know my alignment, and no one in their right mind would think that scum would have the power to hand out investigations and extra votes, I find that Glork's suggestion that I might be scum very suspicious indeed, and further proof of diabolical scheming on his part.
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Post Post #706 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 8:40 am

Post by Skruffs »

Hmm. Well..
This is pretty dangerous idea, but, I'm considering it anyways....
The only way we will be in danger tommorrow is if Nai is quicklynched. Nai will only be quicklynched if there is three mafia and nai is also town. Although mafia could quicklynch nai as scum and force teh equivalent of two townie deaths to one scum death before we get to a day where town can do anything again.

Anyways, teh theory is this..
Please don't hate me for positing it, but:
We lynch Pookie. If Pookie turns up scum, then we are no longer in lylo until tommorrow. Glork is mostly confirmed, Theo can vig DGB. PRObably two scum down.

If Pookie turns up town, then theo can vig glork tonight (if possible). Now scum might have a role blocker or something, so, theo may not be able to vig Glork tonight, (which I would only suggest he do if pookie turns up town)...

If glork is really gambitting as scum, and theo is kept from killing him, then in the morning it becomes a matter of quicklynching him BEFORE scum quicklynch nai. It would take 3 for Nai or 4 for glork, so we would HAVE To all vote immediately to prevent a nai lynching. I don't know if everyone here would have access to be able to do that, though, but it is what would have to happen if glork is gambitting.

Anyways, that's my theory. What do you think about it?


---------------------
Glork, the last thing is, you wouldn't show up as a cop, even if you are one. We haven't seen anyone's roles, yet. Just their name reason why they are famous, and alignment.

DGB, you are both supporting pooky and saying that you don't want to be held accountable if he is wrong. You have to choose one or the other.
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Post Post #707 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 8:48 am

Post by theopor_COD »

Still waiting.
Skruffs wrote:Mistef, why did you inspect Glork?
Re-reading last couple of pages or so.
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Post Post #708 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 9:06 am

Post by Glork »

Granted, Skruffs, I won't show up as "Cop," but it safe to assume that if I die with a pro-town alignment, I will not have lied about my role or my actions.

I am also unsure of Theo vigging DGB if Pooky comes up scum. I do see potential for DGB to be pro-town, as adamantly as she is pushing against me. However, the matter of her giving abilities to possible pro-town players seems rather WIFOMy. I am not at this time willing to get into a hairy debate like that.
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Post Post #709 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 10:23 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Zah, shucks, now it turns out that Glork won't show up as "cop"!!!

Surprise surprise. I could have predicted that.

So many things can go wrong with Skruff's plan, it's not funny. And unexpected things always happen at night. I'd much prefer to lynch the scummiest player, and that's Glork.

I recall in Evolution Mafia, the confessed scum wasn't killed right away, can you believe it, and there was a similar plan that was concocted, and it didn't work out, and the scum won it. I don't want to see a repeat of that here, I am extremely leery of these night plans. Besides, one or more, if not all, the people recruited for the plan might be scum!!! It never works out as plan.

It's simple, but elegant and effective. First priority is to eliminate scum. Not eliminate a likely townie, and if we're wrong, so-and-so will roleblock, that other guy will vig, and this other guy will be investigated... no way.
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Post Post #710 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 10:58 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

Glork wrote:Well, Skruffs... yes, I'm fishing.

I am confident that there is no Mafia Roleblocker or Mafia Redirector. I think that they would have just chosen to screw with my night action if there were one.

Look at this from our point of view, does this setup make any bloody sense if the mafia were completely toothless and had no way of screwing with us in the endgame?


If you or Carbon Copy can kill, then we have two possible courses of action:
1) Lynch Pooky. If he is town, Theo vigges Glork and Skruffs/CC vigges Miztef. We would both necessarily be scum, given that I would've lied about my investigation, and Miztef would have lied about me being Fred/Innocent.
2) Lynch
ME
today. Once I turn up as a Cop, then Pooky could be vigged by Theo, and DGB could be vigged by you/CC. We would avoid the insta-loss, unless DGB is not actually scum. And the way she's sided with Pooky, it's pretty obviously balls-to-the-wall that they're trying to push for a mislynch/victory against me. But if we can foil their plan by going two-for-one, I think we're in good shape, unless my math is horribly wrong or DGB is completely terrible at this game.

Ok then Glork, tell me WHY mizteftown would choose to withhold a ONE SHOT INVESTIGATION UNTIL AFTER YOU COME UNDER FIRE.


(Of course, now that I think about it, this also fails if Skruffs is the Godfather and simply lies to us, so I'm not even confident that I'd trust a response coming from him -- really, I want to hear from Carbon Copy.)



Anyway, the idea is that if,
even in the event of a mislynch
, we can set up for *AT LEAST* one scumbag to die via vigging, then we are *NOT* in LyLo, and we can TEST my claim (to an extent... I suppose it's possible that Pooky and I could both be gambiting scum) by simply lynching either one of us. Now obviously, I would suggest Pooky in this case (claimed Cop versus claimed Replacement, and one of us must be scum)... but that's really up to the rest of the town to decide.

Again, I can see the only reason for you to be gambitting like this is if you had some way around our vig or if our vig was actually a scumbuddy of yours and I honestly don't see how it is unlikely that a town this powerful is up against scum that are so completely powerless to stop them

Pooky wrote:It is just incredilby stupid to lynch a claimed mason on day 1, if they are actually scum, the cop will find them and the game will be a slam dunk win for the town since 2 scum go down right away after cop reveals investigation. It DOES NOT MATTER WHAT THOSE TWO MASONS ARE DOING, AS SOON AS THEY CLAIM MASON THEY SHOULD BECOME COMPLETELY UNTOUCHABLE AT SUCH AN EARLY STAGE IN THE GAME. [/qoute]
If you believe this to be true, why didn't you
SAY
anything on Day One?


I REPLACED into the game, by the time I had finished rereading everything you guys had already lynched Zindaras


Pooky wrote:Don't you think it's just a little bit of a coincidence that our "cop" happens to get innocents the previous days and just happens to hit his "guilty" exactly on LyLo?
This is a ridculous insinuation. The odds of me getting a guilty the first night were, assuming 3 scum, 3/12. The odds of me getting a guilty the second night were slightly better than 3/11 (for a non-random investigation). The odds of me getting a guilty last night would have been significantly better than 3/8.

3/4*7/11*3/8 is 63/352 which is almost as bad as 1 in 6. I'm just saying its suspicious that this just happens to be the string of events that gives you your "guilty" on the LyLo day. I'm not saying its HORRIBLY unlikely. I'm just saying it's a bit of a coincidence


Are you saying that statistically speaking, getting Innocent, Innocent, Guilty is an anomoly? A coincidence? Are you saying that after two day/night cycles of investigations, lynchings, and
observations of behavior
, it's mere chance that a Cop might hit a guilty on the third time around?

I never said anomaly, I said suspicious. I hold you to a better standard than 1 in 3 mr. paragon


Because if you are, you're either an idiot or you're being deliberately misleading. And I know, sir, that you are not an idiot.
Pooky wrote:Oh and on the nightkill thing, Massive IS less confirmed than Carbon Copy and Primate is an obvious nonfactor since his power is worthless in the endgame anyway.
Now Pooky's trying to have his cake *AND* eat it, too. Now he is trying to discredit the validity/innocence of an effective mason-pair, whereas earlier he was claiming that having several mason-pairs was broken in favor of the town (which would only be the case if they could be confirmed innocent).
Primate (town) vouched for certainty that Massive was town. This is known. Massive cannot get much more "confirmed" than that. I'll grant you that Massive may have been "less confirmed" than CC if you compare like 98% to 100%, but that's an insignificant difference. Again, you're trying to misrepresent the facts to suit your own purposes.

It's a technicality sure but it is still valid. More importantly DO YOU DENY THAT A COP WHO HAS MESSAGE SENDING ABILITY TO CONFIRM HIM IN A SETUP WITH seven Pseudomasons who can be cleared together is LUDICIROUSLY overpowered for the town? If you do deny that this is ludicriously overpowered for the town, then TELL ME HOW MAFIA WILL SURVIVE DAY ONE MASSCLAIM! Because there is NO WAY this setup could be so imbalanced and still pass review



Bolded in above quote is my response to Glork.

Here is my response to Nai.

Yes it may seem that some of the things I have said are random and must be true, but I know this must be so

Here are the possible mafia abilities that could turn what Glork is saying as a testable lynch into not an actually testable one:

1)Theo is lying scumbag and not vigilante
2)Scum have a roleblocker
3)Scum have a doctor
4)Glork is an unnightkillable scum
5)Scum have some kind of Day ending mechanism
6) Scum have a one shot daykill
7) Scum have some kind of redirector that can change the targetting of the vigilante
8) Scum have a bus driver that can swap Glork and another player so that the nightkill hits the other player
9) We are facing a 4 player scumgroup

Any of the above are perfectly valid reasons for why Glork is gambitting and why Theo wont be able to retal kill glork for the mislynch on me. It is simply inexplicable to me that the scumteam we are facing could be entirely powerless and be unable to prevent the kill because I KNOW I AM PROTOWN AND GLORKS MOVE DOESNT MAKE ANY SENSE TO ME IF HE CANT PREVENT HIMSELF FROM BEING VIGGED THE NIGHT AFTER.

But you do NOT have the same information as I do that I am protown.

That is why I am asking you to CONSIDER for a second what type of power the town has.

SUPPOSEDLY THE TOWN HAS SEVEN PSEUDO MASONS WHO CAN BACK EACH OTHER UP.

IF YOU BELIEVE GLORK THEN THE TOWN ALSO HAS A COP WHO CAN CONFIRM HIS ROLE BY BASICALLY HAVING HIS RESULTS POSTED IN THE THREAD.

Does this not seem just a little bit too overpowered? How DO the scum survive the massclaim day 1 with every1 backing each other up and a confirmable cop who can CLAIM WITHOUT BEING PUBLIC ABOUT IT BY SIMPLY HAVING IT STATED IN THE NIGHTMESSAGE HE SENDS OUT NOT COMPELTELY WIPE THE SCUM OUT? It simply is incomprehensible to me that the town could possibly have a COP who can confirm himself with that many mason pairs/triplets!! The scum have ZERO chance of winning after the day 1 massclaim and that simply is NOT a game, the likelihood of such a setup passing review is absolutely NILL.


Heck take out the cop, let's say you don't know if Glork is the cop, then look at the 7 players in masonpairs/triplets. Do you honestly believe the scum have none of the nine possible abilities I've listed above that may let them pretty much smash the town completely? Do you think that a setup with such toothless scum against such a loaded town would pass setup review?

If you do I honestly have nothing more to say to you. I am NOT pulling random shit out of my ass in order to save myself. I am being VERY LOGICAL about this. IT SIMPLY DOES NOT MAKE SENSE AS A SETUP FOR THE SCUM TO HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE TO BEAT THE TOWN.

YOU CAN BURY YOUR HEAD IN THE SAND AND DECIDE TO BELIEVE THE SCUM HAVE NONE OF THE POSSIBLE ABILITIES THAT WOULD LET THEM GET AWAY WITH A LEPTON GAMBIT RIGHT NOW BUT THAT IS JUST WISHFUL THINKING AND YOU WILL BE DISAPPOINTED IN THE END!!!
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Post Post #711 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 11:15 am

Post by Miztef »

Pooky... it was my first post of the day. I didn't wait or anything, that was just the time I started rereading this game and I felt it was a nessessary first post. Of course I want to defend Glork, I have him confirmed as town. It is a completely pro-town action.
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Post Post #712 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 11:20 am

Post by theopor_COD »

Yes but why did you investigate Glork?

Answer the question. Pls.
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Post Post #713 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 12:31 pm

Post by Nai »

Skruffs wrote:Okay, yeah, Nai was 3 to vote when UT claimed yesterday - confirmed by vote counts.
If there was three scum, they could have quicklynched him yesterday. Interesting.
Hmm. They would have suffered for it, though.
Too bad Nai's not inspected, it would have been really useful to know if she's going to be collateral for the town. Razz One of Pooky or Glork have to be scum, though.
I don't think they would have quicklynched me yesterday. There was no point; Ubertimmy wasn't showing any signs of being a power role, and they could go with the town to test Primate. They can't lose when they're lynching town.
DG wrote:Zpooky has shot so many holes in Glork's arguments, Glork has been ripped to shreds. It's just a gut feeling, it's hard to put into words, but I feel that Pooky has the interest of the town at heart, while Glork is plotting something in broad daylight.
Only scum could say this about Pooky's argument. His argument is thin. It's full of holes. It relies on so many random variables that no sane person would listen to it. Or no town person, for that matter.
Skruffs wrote:We lynch Pookie. If Pookie turns up scum, then we are no longer in lylo until tommorrow. Glork is mostly confirmed, Theo can vig DGB. PRObably two scum down.

If Pookie turns up town, then theo can vig glork tonight (if possible). Now scum might have a role blocker or something, so, theo may not be able to vig Glork tonight, (which I would only suggest he do if pookie turns up town)...

If glork is really gambitting as scum, and theo is kept from killing him, then in the morning it becomes a matter of quicklynching him BEFORE scum quicklynch nai.
I don't trust this plan. Sorry, but I don't like plans with conditions. "If this then this" never works. Not only do you give the scum the exact plan to watch out for (so if they can roleblock/etc, they can), you also let them know how to weasel out of it.

This plan COULD work, though, for specific reasons involving my role.
Glork wrote:Granted, Skruffs, I won't show up as "Cop,"
DG wrote:Zah, shucks, now it turns out that Glork won't show up as "cop"!!!
You know, he could turn up as "Alignment Finder" or something of the sort. Stop trying to twist words, and think for a minute.
Pooky wrote:Ok then Glork, tell me WHY mizteftown would choose to withhold a ONE SHOT INVESTIGATION UNTIL AFTER YOU COME UNDER FIRE.
It seems fairly obvious to me.
To figure out if he's town so we don't waste a lynch on him.

Pooky wrote:Yes it may seem that some of the things I have said are random and must be true, but I know this must be so
One word: How.
Pooky wrote:GLORKS MOVE DOESNT MAKE ANY SENSE TO ME IF HE CANT PREVENT HIMSELF FROM BEING VIGGED THE NIGHT AFTER.
Occam's Razor says that the simplest explanation is that Glork is town, and you're scum trying to pin this on him.
Pooky wrote:SUPPOSEDLY THE TOWN HAS SEVEN PSEUDO MASONS WHO CAN BACK EACH OTHER UP.
I think this is a misrepresentation. Zindaras/Carbon Copy are masons. Primate is NOT a mason, he's a townie with extra lives. Miztef was NOT a mason, he just knows someone else in the game and not their alignment. I only saw one mason pair this game, you're trying to make it like we have tons. Someone knowing that some other role in the game is NOT mason.
Pooky wrote:may let them pretty much smash the town completely?
And here's the crux of the situation. No, I don't think the scum have roles that make it impossible for us to beat them. The 'pseudo masons', as you call them, are not that powerful. Most of them aren't masons at all, and the others have action-specific abilities. You're pulling this out your ass.
Pooky wrote:IT SIMPLY DOES NOT MAKE SENSE AS A SETUP FOR THE SCUM TO HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE TO BEAT THE TOWN.
No, you're right, it doesn't. But I don't think the scum have a doctor, or a day ending mechanism (they could have used it already), or a one shot daykill (which could have been used already).

There is a possibility that Theo is lying, or that they have a roleblocker, or that Glork is unnightkillable, or that they have a redirector. However, I believe that Glork is telling the truth, because, if you notice the notes, there's always at least one answer regarding a scum question, and today's is just outright said.

Can someone remind me if we've all claimed, both role and flavor? I think that Theo's flavor is still missing, I don't recall seeing Miztef's complete deal.


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Theo: Claimed vig.
Skruffs: Can't recall
Primate: Little Nicky, cloned cat (extra lives)
Nai: Hasn't claimed, low vote count kill
Glork: Detective Cat, message sender/cop
Miztef: One-shot conditional cop
Pooky: Wonder Cat, replacer
DrippingGoofball: Tuffy the Sleeping Acrobat Cat, inventor
Carbon Copy: Rainbow, Cloned Cat; mason.
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Post Post #714 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 12:35 pm

Post by Glork »

Pooky wrote:Look at this from our point of view, does this setup make any bloody sense if the mafia were completely toothless and had no way of screwing with us in the endgame?
No, but I do not understand why the scum would choose to Roleblock elsewhere or switch/redirect
another
player's action when there's a claimed Cop in the game.... unless they planned on going tooth-and-nail against the cop all along... as if, perhaps, they knew that the Cop had investigated one of them because that player got a series of questions from the claimed Cop.

Hmm? Sound familiar?
Pooky wrote:Ok then Glork, tell me WHY mizteftown would choose to withhold a ONE SHOT INVESTIGATION UNTIL AFTER YOU COME UNDER FIRE.
Miztef already answered this, but he didn't get the ability to investigate until last night, and he didn't get to make his first post of the day until after I had "come under fire."
Durr. Oh yeah.
Pooky wrote:I REPLACED into the game, by the time I had finished rereading everything you guys had already lynched Zindaras
...d'oh. Valid point.

Pooky wrote:3/4*7/11*3/8 is 63/352 which is almost as bad as 1 in 6. I'm just saying its suspicious that this just happens to be the string of events that gives you your "guilty" on the LyLo day. I'm not saying its HORRIBLY unlikely. I'm just saying it's a bit of a coincidence
I don't understand where you're getting this stat from or why it is significant. My point is that N0 was a random investigation, so I had a rather low chance of hitting scum. N1 was not random, but I still had (assuming no Godfather) a slightly-better-than-30% (3/10, really, as I would not have investigated Carbon Copy). The odds of me getting a guilty last night were significantly better than 3/8 (8 other players, but two days' worth of gameplay under my belt).

My point is that the chances of me getting a guilty result start off ridiculously low
Pooky wrote:I never said anomaly, I said suspicious. I hold you to a better standard than 1 in 3 mr. paragon
WHOA! WHOA WHOA WHOA!
Not only do you use the logical fallacy
Burden of Proficiency
, but you also misrepresent the game facts horribly. My first investigation was
completely and utterly random
. It was N0, before any gameplay had occurred, so I had no advantage as compared to any other player. Even if Burden of Proficiency were
not
a logical fallacy, you should expect nothing more out of me from N1, so your claim of "better than 1 in 3"
DOES NOT EVEN APPLY IN THIS SITUATION
.
Confirm Vote: Pooky

Die scum die. When this game is over, I am writing the Burden of Proficiency page on the Wiki (I wonder why it hasn't existed before), and I am using this post as the TEXTBOOK example of how scum use this to make a ridiculous insinuation about an experienced player's alignment or ability.
Pooky wrote:If you do deny that this is ludicriously overpowered for the town, then TELL ME HOW MAFIA WILL SURVIVE DAY ONE MASSCLAIM! Because there is NO WAY this setup could be so imbalanced and still pass review
Because no player in their right mind would believe all three mason groups if they came out on Day One.

Remember in Covert Ops, how my role had the potential to automatically out
ANY
scumbag who faked a codename? Seol decided that, in spite of this game-breaking possibility, he could let my role exist as it did because
no reasonable town would blindly follow such a principle
. Keep in mind that we STILL do not know if Miztef is actually town (so even if he/Thesp claimed, we would have no way of proving or disproving them without lynching/investigating AT LEAST one of them). Keep in mind that there was ZERO way to prove Zindaras/Carbon Copy without lynching/investigating one of them. A day one massclaim would
NOT
have broken the game,
because no intelligent player would have taken all of the claims at face value, and there was no way of confirming any (much less all) of the mason groups without some kind of trial-and-error process.

Pooky wrote:IF YOU BELIEVE GLORK THEN THE TOWN ALSO HAS A COP WHO CAN CONFIRM HIS ROLE BY BASICALLY HAVING HIS RESULTS POSTED IN THE THREAD.
Circular logic and factually inaccurate.
1) If I am believed, then there is no reason to need to "confirm my role." The simple fact that you and DGB are casting doubt on my role is proof that I cannot "confirm my role."
2) My results will NOT be posted in the thread -- each night, regardless of whom I investigate or what their alignment is, the answer to any form of "Are you scum?" will always be some form of "No."
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Post Post #715 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 12:44 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Z'Add to the seven pseudmasons a townie with several lives (Primate), do you seriously think I am going to fall for the message-sending/truth-detector/cop-that-won't-show-up-as-cop-when-lynched???

So you're right.
I am not taking your claim at face-value
.

Next time you're scum and you want to claim Flying Pumpkin Shooting Lasers, try not to contradict yourself a million times, and try not to change your story as often.
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.

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Post Post #716 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 12:46 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Z'nice try, though, Glork. I appreciate your trying so hard. ;-) It makes the game more fun. "A for effort."
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.

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Post Post #717 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 12:53 pm

Post by Miztef »

I'm going to
vote: Pooky
, it seems to me that if he was pro-town, it is likely he wouldn't be trying so hard to attack 2 other pro-town players (myself and Glork).
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Post Post #718 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 1:02 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

Miztef

I know you're confused right now about supporting your scumbuddy.

But usually in a game of mafia

when the "cop" claims a "guilty" on a player

and you have an investigation that confirms that the cop is a cop

then you usually are voting with the cop on that player.

But you're clearly confused about how much you're supposed to support your scumpartner.

which is why you waited so long.

btw it's not very convincing at all...
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Post Post #719 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 1:06 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Z'What's even more damning is how bloody long Miztef took to vote for "Glork's guilty" - seems to me, if Miztef's was town, and his investigation was true, he would have voted against Pooky IMMEDIATELY. Like, the next post after Glork's "revelation."

Why the delay???

Smacks of waiting to see which way the wind blows, and how the gambit was going, before sticking his scummy neck out and daring to vote for the targetted townie.

I want to know, why the delay?
Paraphrasing a role PM takes seconds, fabricating a good fakeclaim takes an eternity.

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Post Post #720 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 1:17 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

Nai
I believe you're town because you'd need ot be for the scum to be pulling this shit off.

So I'll try to be very very clear with you.

1) Are you honestly saying its more likely given the power level of the claimed town that the scum are completely toothless? Yes my theory relies on the scum having some kind of power, but you do realize that this setup would be HORRIBLY UNBALANCED AND NEVER WOULD HAVE PASSED ANY REVIEW IF THE SCUM DIDNT HAVE SUCH ANY POWER BECAUSE THEY WOULD BE COMPLETELY WIPED OUT BY THE TOWN?

Yes my theory relies on the scum having power, but given the power level of the town do you honestly expect scum to not have power?


2) I was NOT contesting Miztef's claim of innocent result on Glork but the TIMING of the claim. IF YOU ARE A ONE SHOT COP YOU HAVE ABSOLUTELY ZERO FUCKING INCENTIVE TO WAIT TO GIVE OUT YOUR INFORMATION BECAUSE THERE IS NO POINT!! IT IS A ONE SHOT ABILITY ITS NOT LIKE YOU NEED OT HIDE FROM THE SCUM IN CASE THEY SHOOT YOU TO PREVENT A FURTHER INVESTIGATION!!! HE SHOULD HAVE CLAIMED FIRST THING IN THE MORNING RIGHT AWAY. INSTEAD HE CLAIMS THIS INVESTIGATION RIGHT AFTER ALL HELL BREAKS LOSE AND GLORK COMES UNDER MASSIVE ATTACK.

He's also saying that it was his first oppurtunity, I think it's crap, but if you want to believe him, it's your loss.

3)
I know this to be true BECAUSE MY ROLE PM SAYS I AM PROTOWN AND THE ONLY REASON GLORK WOULD GO AFTER ME LIKE THIS IS IF HE WAS SCUM AND HAD SOME WAY TO COVER HIS ASS AND FORCE A WIN AFTER THE MISLYNCH I ALREADY !@#$ING EXPLAINED IT READ MY !@#$ING POST.

4) OCCAMS RAZOR? HAVE YOU SEEN THE GAME SETUP THATS BEEN REVEALED SO FAR? DOES ANYTHIGN ABOUT THIS GAME SEEM SIMPLE TO YOU ? ARE YOU !@#$ING KIDDING ME!?!?

5) It isn't a misrepresentation, according to Miztef he was masons with Thesp who could confirm him and Miztef could confirm Buddy, that's 3 then Carbon is Masoned with Himself. And Primate knows he needs money and chances are whoever is giving him money aint scum cuz a acartoon having money makes no sense and a scum would not give money to a protown role in the first bloody place so that's 7.

6) How are they NOT that powerful? here's a hypothetical situation: they all claim day 1

HOW DO YOU BEAT THAT AS SCUM?

7) right because the scum would SO RATHER USE THEIR ABILITY RIGHT AWAY INSTEAD OF SAVING IT FOR THE ENDGAME WHERE IT WOULD HAVE MAXIMUM EFFECT YOU MAKE SO MUCH SENSE.

i want ot honestly kick you

did you even read my post?

DONT !@#$ING TELL ME THAT I NEED RANDOM THINGS TO HAPPEN

WHAT I ACTUALLY NEED IS ONE THING TO BE TRUE

THE SETUP IS BALANCED

THAT IS THE ONLY THING I NEED TO BE TRUE

GIVEN THAT THIS WAS MADE BY A HUMAN BEING AND ALSO REVIEWED AND PASSED BY ANOTHER HUMAN BEING I HONESTLY DONT !@#$ING KNOW HOW THE !@#$ YOU CAN DECIDE TO SAY THAT THE SETUP BEING BALANCED IS A "RANDOM THING"

IF YOU THINK I AM BLOWING SMOKE OUT OF MY ASS LIKE CRAZY THEN STOP

STOP
STOP
STOP

Just think right now what the setup would be if Miztef/Glork are telling the Truth and I am actually Scum.

3 Masons in Thesp/Miztef/Buddy
2 Masons in Carbon/Zind
2 Masons in Primate/Massive.
Message from Glork that gives 1 innocent.

Massclaim Day 1. Masons get paired

What do scum do?

GIVE ME ONE WAY THEY COULD POSSIBLY AVOID LOSING WITHOUT HAVING SOME TYPE OF INCREDIBLE POWER THAT YOU ARE DENYING THAT THEY WOULD HAVE.

If they can't win then it isn't a BALANCED SETUP.

If it isn't a BALANCED SETUP then it ISNT THE SETUP WE ARE PLAYING WITH BECAUSE IT WOULD NOT HAVE PASSED SETUP REVIEW

THIS LEADS TO A CONTRADICTION WHICH CAN ONLY MEAN THAT GLORK/MIZTEF ARE LYING THROUGH THEIR BLOODY TEETH.

I CANT FATHOM WHY ANY PROTOWN PLAYER WOULD BE THINKING OF LYNCHING ME

I AM ABSOLUTELY FURIOUS
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Post Post #721 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 1:18 pm

Post by theopor_COD »

Sigh.

Miztef why Glork? With your one investigation please. Yesterday you were most suspicious of me from what I can recall, why not me? We could have verified Glork by other means i.e lynching Pooky in this case. Which I still think is preferable to lynching Glork but words are drowning my thoughts.
Nai wrote:I think that Theo's flavor is still missing
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Post Post #722 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 1:21 pm

Post by Glork »

DGB, go look at the dead players in the first post. Tell me how many of them have shown up as "Townie" or "Mason" or any other *NORMAL* role?

The reason I might not show up as "Cop" is because that's not in the design of the game. I hadn't thought that through when I said I'd die as a cop.

Nevertheless, if I were lynched today as pro-town player, what role would you conclude that I had (given that I am an adamant supporter of pro-town players NOT lying)?
MessageSender/Cop. That's right.

And I'm still not a technical truth-detector -- I never claimed to be, and I denied being one in general when you asked me about that last time. I am just a MessageSender/Cop. I don't see how this is so incredibly bizarre, given that you are a three-target-picking-Inventor and Skruffs claims to be a Blind-Jack-Of-All-Trades. Massive was an Inheritor who gave money to give another player extra lives. WITH PROOF THAT A ROLE SUCH AS MASSIVE'S EXISTS IN THE GAME, HOW DOES A REGULAR HYBRID OF TWO ROLES SEEM SO INCREDIBLY FAR-FTECHED TO YOU?

Seriously. I want you to explain in detail why your role is believable, why Skruffs' is believable, and why Massive's exists. And then I want you to explain *WHY* you think that "MessageSender/Cop" is too bizarre to be in the setup.
Do it. I dare you. I dare you to find a convincing argument to support your current stance.
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Post Post #723 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 1:28 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Z'what sets you apart, Glork, is that you were inconsistent with your claim throughout, and you kept changing it, adding to it, backtracking, publishing errata, admitting to half-truths... hey, forgive me for thinking you're scum after all that.

And frankly, if that's not scummy, it's impossible for anyone to be scummy.
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Post Post #724 (ISO) » Sun Jun 24, 2007 1:38 pm

Post by Glork »

DGB, I have a question. Earlier, when you missed a PR post, you said this:
DrippingGoofball wrote:
Glork wrote:I'm trying to decide whether I think DGB's vote looks like busnig a scumbuddy, jumping on an "easy" bandwagon, or legitimate townie carelessness.
Zlegitimate townie PRESSURE. Why, he's not in danger is he?

As for the missed post restriction, there was a consequence at night.
What exactly was that "consequence"? You never explained it to anybody. And right now, I think that any/all information that we can share would be most helpful to everyone involved.
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