White Flag Mafia [TM2015] (Game Over)

[Ankamius]

I've been kind of playing in the team PT for a bit since I'm still trying to figure out how all our opinions are so divergent from each other.

I'll deep-analyze stuff today. Bonus points to anyone using summaries that points out specifics in the meantime.

[Ankamius]

This would be so much easier if Reg was being run up because all of us agree that he's scum.

[Ankamius]

Okay, here's where my team and I are at:

I still think it's CES+Reg from interactions. I already went into this. There's one post that struck me as weird from BBT today (mainly timing of what he said), but that's not exactly a strong counterforce.

Mollie has been strongly townreading BBT all game and thinks he's basically obvtown. She also looks at CES and Regfan's posts and sees them pretending to be worse than they really are. She especially hatehatehates this post for putting the possibility out there yet not acting like it is one elsewhere in his posts.

Wisdom has been operating on the opposite type of wavelength; he thinks BBT is obvscum and is scumreading Regfan for being a more likely scumpartner than CES is. He has various reasonings sprinkled into his ISO about it, but I'll have him organize it before posting the details in here. He was townreading BBT until shortly after Aneninen died, but various interactions made him rethink it.

[Ankamius]

FTR I'm aware of Reg's vote and am purposely not voting right now.

[Ankamius]

Both of you: Strongest three points against the other indicating scum. Go.

[Ankamius]

I ask because I'm at work and there's no guarantee I'll have the energy to go through and crosscheck once I get home because fuck evening shifts with a rusty fork.

[Ankamius]

Hey ika, are you around?

[Ankamius]

My team is fully synced now. All three of us think that lynching Regfan is the best choice for winning the game.

We're both completely cleared from being scum outside unless BBT is scum, so those are the only true losing conditions.
CES+BBT is confirmed not to be a team because keeping this 1v1 up for so long is a complete and utter deathtrap.

What are the teams that are left?

BBT+ika
BBT+Ank
BBT+Reg
CES+Reg

It should be pretty clear at this point from anyone who's paying any attention that neither of us are scum with BBT either, so what teams are we left with?

Scumteams including Regfan.

Thoughts?

[Ankamius]

Because if I'm scum with BBT, it's far simpler to try to manipulate ika into voting you rather than going in a completely different direction.

[Ankamius]

Actually, alternatively, ika suggested I just vote regfan earlier when I brought it up. That would've been a fairly painfree path to a win.

[Ankamius]

Anyone who understands my scumgame would be able to tell you that this isn't it.

[Ankamius]

The first one is general strategy that's superior to the vote-Regfan strategy. It's not contradictory at all because even if I wanted to push Regfan for a win as scum, going for it when ika pushed me to would be a better time to do it than right now.

[Ankamius]

To address standoffishness: Why would I go about being indecisive when those two specific plans were laid out before me and both would've had a decent shot at success?

[Ankamius]

It's not contradictory at all because even if I wanted to push Regfan for a win as scum, going for it when ika pushed me to would be a better time to do it than right now.

You weren't actually around then anyway?

So? What's stopping me from doing it at the next opportunity?

To address standoffishness: Why would I go about being indecisive when those two specific plans were laid out before me and both would've had a decent shot at success?

I don't see how that relates to standoffishness. Given how you've played this game so far, I could definitely see not wanting to go in for a strong push on Regfan but just take your time getting there.

Actually, most of this seems irrelevant - going for Regfan before he had voted BBT would've also meant BBT would've still pretended to think it was me-ika and he would've had to react convincingly. Now BBT can switch his focus to Regfan easily.

This assumes that Regfan wouldn't have voted for BBT regardless. You think that wouldn't have happened?

[Ankamius]

I wouldn't mind talking with GIF myself. Mollie's the only member of my team that's sure of ika being town based on solo play and GIF would be able to clear up any remaining doubt on my end about that slot.

At the minimum, I'd like GIF's reads if he's at all caught up with the game.

[Ankamius]

This assumes that Regfan wouldn't have voted for BBT regardless. You think that wouldn't have happened?

Not if it's BBT-Regfan. Yes otherwise. But the order does matter here. If you vote Regfan first, he has to feign some sort of response. If Regfan votes him first, he doesn't.

What's stopping him from not mentioning it at all until ika votes?

[Ankamius]

Off to work.

[Ankamius]

I'm here for a bit on my tablet.

[Ankamius]

Too late now, I'm out the door.

[Ankamius]

Worked killed me today. I'm not doing anything that requires thought until tomorrow.

[Ankamius]

ika: What has GIF said? I'm very very close to being 100% sure of the scumteam and that's pretty much the only thing I think can change my mind at this point.

[Ankamius]

What does he mean by 'content'?

What is his reasoning?

[Ankamius]

Yeah, that's pretty close to the last shred of doubt about CES/Reg being the scumteam gone. Reg's last post brought Wisdom fully on board for a CES/Reg scumteam, so now we're fully synced up.

Unless there's something else you want to discuss, I'm voting for CES here and now.

[Ankamius]

Alright.

VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum

[Ankamius]

If I'm wrong, I'm going to hate myself for a while for not requesting to switch into the theme back near the start of the game.

[Ankamius]

Yeah, I was town this game.

BBT+Reg would've been the ballsiest gambit to go for ever, although Regfan's last post firmly strengthened the CES+Reg scumteam read anyway, so.

[Ankamius]

This is another game in a long string of games where I prove to myself that talking down my gut is generally a pretty fucking awful idea.

[Ankamius]

Regfan is #1 scum and you're likely the partner.

You completely changed your tone after I voted for elk, then changed it again after CES hammered. It looks really fake.
RegFan's post right before the thread lock was abysmal. I'll let him answer my question before really going into it, but I'll summarize by saying that I can't believe someone on his caliber would ever make that post as town.

[Ankamius]

Literally the only reason I wasn't all for voting Regfan the whole time was because ika was freaking me out with how he was going about it.

[Ankamius]

I misread the gamestate a lot this game, but I legitimately didn't think anyone else would be killed that night.

[Ankamius]

eh, I didn't because all the kills were predictable enough. The only one that gave me any pause was Llamarble's NK.

[Ankamius]

That day one townbloc had scum written all over it.

[Ankamius]

Ank you actually had me coming out of the chair on lylo when you concluded Reg was the best lynch because I felt like it was a lot better lynch at that point than CES.

I much preferred Reg dying at that point due to the chance that CES was the scum designated mislynch for lylo.

Was sad when he got lynched instead... but in lylo it's really tempting and easy to stick with the existing wagons so yeah, just dem breaks.

Yeah, I would've been a hero if I did that. Now I just kinda look ridiculous for how awkward my play was all game.

[Ankamius]

Eh. I have a weird talent for being able to not be lynched as town, so that's not very far beyond par for the course. Generally it takes role fuckery to get me mislynched.

[Ankamius]

That situation popping up was exactly what I was keeping in my head the last couple day phases. I think the reason it slipped by me in the end is because it was subtle enough to look like it wasn't an attempt to link fake associatives together.