Mini 496 - Wild West Mafia. Mod Abandoned

[Thin_Man]

Well, I think the evidence against Adam is absolutely crushing in its volume and infallibility. I think we are all entirely agreed that there is no way on earth that this dawn message that is obviously from our cop-messenger can in no way be even remotely wrong regarding anything.

vote Adam

[Thin_Man]

I'm sure BJ would agree with me if he were here today.

[Thin_Man]

Whoa whoa whoa Thin_Man! Evidence there is, but crushing volume and infallibility it does not have! If u had been reading, u would see that the evidence could easily have been put there by scum, or by an anonymous third party to get us to lynch an innocent townie, or worse, a power role.

You mean people actually lie in this game? But then how can we catch the scumz!? Surely that makes it impossible?

I mean, if we can't trust anonymous messages scrawled on the wall by unknown people, what can we trust?

[Thin_Man]

In all honesty, though, I think it was put there by a townie role. That's more a hunch than anything, though. Not only is there precedent, but roles like that tend to be wasted on scum. It's either a discussion-causer by a note-dropper or some kind of information role designed to spread

mis

information.

[Thin_Man]

I considered it quite obvious I was being sarcastic. Keep up.

[Thin_Man]

Lazy Vigilante: why should

you

go out and kill people at night? Meh, too much effort. Get the town to do it for you by telling them your target is scum.

[Thin_Man]

We have several possible avenue's to explore before this day is over... we can :shift:

-Lynch Adam - This is probably a bad move as it would sever any possible ties he'd have with other players and we really have no reason to trust the note yet.

-Lynch Adam's defenders/attackers - Again, since there was most like only one person who wrote the note, it's going to be 10 intuitive opinions on the matter, lynching on those grounds is probably not a good idea. (It could be more than one person if a group wrote the note, but then we're digging into WIFOM area's which is bad for Day 1)

-Lurker lynch - Always an acceptable option imho, since we only have one player who hasn't posted, it would be wise to wait a while before we bandwagoned. And post number isn't really the primary lurker tell, lack of information/person insight in posts is (parroting what other players are saying without contributing) so we need to wait a bit before we start declaring people lurkers anyway. Up side of lurker lynch is that even if they are town, they're not contributing, so they'll be useless in the endgame anyway.

-No Lynch - Allows us to skip awkward Day 1 randomness and stops the statistically higher mislynch problem (more town than scum, so probability of hitting town is higher in a random vote). Also we gather more info from night abilities and information is gathered from a night kill. Not to mention hopefully a second note. Downside to no lynch is that it gives the mafia a free kill, but imo, without any hard evidence or good tells to draw on, it's more like making them choose the kill instead of getting their kill + scummiest looking town lynch.

-Random lynch - Decent way to see where loyalties hide... has a low probability of actually hitting scum though.

-Everyone picks a top three scummiest players - Probably won't work on Day 1... may be worth a try, if only to point out lurkers and for possible hindsight in the endgame.

Aside from the fact it's far too early to be setting up a final day model, several of your models are way off. 1, 2, are ok. With 3 is bearable, though I dislike any idea that we should lynch people if we don't think they're scum, regardless of how useless they are. No lynch is only acceptable in certain situations, and day 1 after night start is barely ever one of them. 4 is absolutely sickening, and is no-way a good play ever. 5 is what we should be shooting for. This whole 'day 1 lynches are random anyway' thing is stupid anyway, considering it really isn't that unlikely that we will hit scum today, and even if we don't hit scum, some honest scumhunting today is the best way to actually get info in order to aim nightroles and to make it so we have a good chance of hitting scum tomorrow.

hat's the same argument people always make against a no lynch... but if we lynch a town player then we'll be at about the same point information wise, except we'll be two town down. Even if we do hit mafia there isn't much chance that on Day 1 they would have strong ties to other mafiasos... so it might actually help the other mafiaso(s) hide better. And you have to think, if we don't gain any information, neither will the scum (and by association, their chances of hitting a power role on purpose goes down as well).

May be in terms of information roles, but certainly not general information. If you're just talking about nightrole information, then you're likely relying on a couple of roles breaking the game, which isn't something I'm comfortable with relying on.

How I have always seen it is this: by lynching, we have a chance to hit scum. The probability is about 1/4, if we do it completely randomly, but the thing is that we don't do it randomly. We do it based off of what we see, who we think has things they're hiding, faulty reasoning, etc. Basically, we lynch those who, through their posts, seem more likely to be mafia. Going back to what I underlined, if we do not lynch, the mafia cannot die (with the exception of vigilantes, us getting lucky w/ a SK, things of that ilk). We must lynch because there is no other way to win. Day one is as good of a time to start as any. If we wait until D3, the mafia will have killed two people, which makes it like a D2 if we lynch D1. Smile We basically have more leeway, more "oops" room if we lynch earlier rather than later.

Yep. Also, us lynching gets rid'o scummy people. If we leave it to the scum, all the pro-town seeming people will get killed off, then we'll be stuck on day three with a bunch of scummy people and be forced to decide then.

In smaller games No Lynches have been used merely to make the number of players odd instead of even so that lynches are harder for the mafia to control in the endgame. though

Best way to do this is with a vig. If it becomes clear there is no vig, we can always do it later. Also, if an SK exists, it becomes very counterproductive, and we just don't know until we actually do it.

also keep in mind whoever wrote the letter (for scummy or noble reasons) will probably support doing what the letter indicates Day 1. Keep that in mind, when pointing fingers at whoever thinks we should lynch Adam(ie follow the letter)...personally I think we should keep the letter in mind and see what happens Day 2 (new letter? same letter?)

I don't really think we should be trying to find this person. I have my own views about what he'd do though.

vote sirwario

[Thin_Man]

Um. Engage the ol' brain there Twomz. Minis usually have either 3 mafia and an SK or 2 groups of 2 mafia. I don't think I've ever been in a game with 3 Bad Guys (I may have, but I don't recall it), but only 2 bad guys ain't happenin'. So it's actually more like a 1-in-3 chance of hitting a bad guy.

Boy, is your face red.

It's common enough to be regarded as a good possibility.

[Thin_Man]

You were implying that it's uncommon to have a 3-man mafia as sole scum.

[Thin_Man]

Just looking at the last 10 mini themes, 5 had three scum and 3 of those had three mafia as the sole scum. I'd hardly call that unlikely. I can try and take a larger sample if you want, but I'm fairly sure I'd be right even over the larger numbers too.

[Thin_Man]

I could in theory, yes. I don't intend to, though

[Thin_Man]

hi

[Thin_Man]

There is also a possibility that a mafioso wrote the note, and is accusing town. Doesn't that have an equal possibility? It's simple, but hey, Occam's Razor.

isn't occams razor either way. And there's no reason to assume anything until we know a great deal more than we do now.

the way i see it it provides a little more information then just a straight up random vote. but thats only if the other option is to pick a random player

Do you consider random lynch a viable option at all?

I do not actually buy this.

Quite rightly.

I see some significance to the fact that Twomz was not bandwagoned for suggesting a No-Lynch. I'd think any decent scum would jump on that instantly. Although I suppose the fact that there wasn't much of a bandwagon to jump on might've contributed to scum's decision not to go for it, it is also possible that it's because Twomz is scum himself. He's said it himself that he's been lynched in other games for his pro-no-lynch stance where he was townie, what makes this game different? I think overall it's a pretty solid tell.
I think I'll upgrade my FoS, but I don't plan to vote on just this.

Not a fan of both the meandering suspicion and the lameness of the point.

FYI, Twomz gets suspicion for stuff like this pretty much every game I've seen with him in

except

the ones where he's scum, so excuse me for being a little incredulous.

Or the scum decided not to jump on him so that he'd appear scummy for the reasons covered. If you follow. My point is that the whole thing's vulnerable to wifom

You think that likely? I think that requires a bit too much thought for most people in this game. Counterintuitive thoughts have always been fairly uncommon from most newbs I've seen.

I think that arguments flawed but not ridiculous, so it itself is also a null tell.

Genuine question: do you always err on the side of people being town mid-day 1? (obvobv depends on the game, but in general)

Well I'm not sure of the odds, but every single time I've seen someone suggest a No-Lynch(and that's not too many time of course) there was a significantly bigger deal of it made than this.

I know you said it's not many, but where have you seen it before?

Based on previous experience I don't think scum could orchestrate somthin like this unless I was scum because I don't think they could expect some random townie to bring it up.

Yep.

I really haven't seen anything too supicious yet. I'm not really seeing pdcakes as scum right now. Everyone is using his remark "I would choose Adam to lynch to find out if the note was true." To me, it appeared he suggesting an alternative to random lynching with the idea that random lynching consists of choosing someone haphazardly with no evidence at all(this is where I saw his newbiness come into play). He didn't seem to grasp the concept of discussion and using it to find the most supect. He thought if we're going to lynch someone random, then why not choose adam and find out if the not is true

Yep. If he was a scum, I would expect him to be more annoyed about the fact he was being bandwagonned for something he didn't think was scummy (which I think would have been the case).

That's jump-worthy. You can't wait for stuff to happen, you have to help make it happen! Why, when I was a bit younger, I challenged a player to an accusation-off just to get things going because there really was nothing going on. If you're gonna lurk, lurk, but don't pretend it's because this game's a swamp of nothingness, because it patently ain't.

Rather hypocritical, no, considering you've been useless pretty much all game?

I'm not lurking. I haven't seen a subject that I feel strongly about to comment on. I believe the note on Adam is worthy of discussion but since we have 50% of the people on both sides of the fence with it, I'm comfortable looking for other possible lynches here in Day 1. You can rip me for not steering conversation but saying I'm lurking is completely stupid. I didn't realize that I was voted the leader of the town. I'll try and keep up my end than.

Whining about your inability to do anything isn't going to win you many friends

I didn't like the way pdcakes switched his perspective on adam so quickly, and I know we've been over this before, but it just stuck out in my mind, and at the moment you are the most scummy person on my list.

Do you have anything else against him bar his position change?

I don't think PDcakes really had a position change, by the by. He never suggested we should be lynching adam because he's scummy, so him thinking he's pro-town is only really a slight deviation, not a retcon of an earlier opinion.

Most Suspicious
pdcakes
Adam the Amazing
Aimee

Least Suspicious
Adele
GodofWine
kabenon007

^^^ this is a godawful list.

It also seems like a helpful thing to do for the scum; they can figure out who suspects them against who has influence and build a (sufficiently wifomy, obv) strategy from there...

Pretty sure it's just as helpful for townies to organise their thoughts and get away from their crusades as it is for scum to help realise who's suspicious of them. And you've really mastered this art of only commenting on things tangential to the game.

I am usually not for lynch the lurker, I always insisit they are replaced, but if he has contacted the mod by PM by still refuses to post, that is different story
*snip*
So he has been checking in to the site (got the PM) but he is in no other game and he is not posting here

I'm in the little italy game pick your poison also. And I wasn't actively not posting, but you can feel free no to believe that.

Thin_Man - Started off ok, made kinda a big deal about the no lynch, but was not the only person. Has not posted since the 3rd although he is posting elsewhere and picked up the prod.

I was not posting anywhere else, and I couldn't post yesterday.

This was done as I read through, so I apologise if some quotes are attributed to the wrong person. I have absolutely no problem at all with posting a list of suspicions, so call me when you want me. I'll also keep my vote to on SW at the minute, though I don't especially believe he's scum in comparison to some others. I want to see some people post their scumlists before I move it, and dislike being without a vote.

fyi, the reason I've been away is partially just business, but partially other, less plannable, things. It really shouldn't happen again. If it does, I'll probly request replacement, for the games sake.

[Thin_Man]

Well I don't remember the specific games anymore, but I think I've seen somthing happen along the lines I described at least 2 or 3 times out of the dozen or so games I've been in. I considered this game this exception. Why? Do you think the opposite?

Not really. It's just fairly easy to say you've seen something before as a justification for something, if you get me. People rarely get called on that type of thing. I personally think it's quite likely that someone suggesting no-lynch early game would have at least a little suspicion put against them. Don't necessarily reckon a bandwagon, though. So I don't so much think the opposite as think you're either exaggerating it (likely unintentionally) or you've just seen a couple of odd examples.

[Thin_Man]

I will read over the weekend, aiming for saturday.

HI AIMEE <3

PROTIP: i recommend devoting some of your reading time to how utterly useless adele has been all game.

[Thin_Man]

Also, Paradox, I don't see a major

disadvantage

in giving a scum-list. I mean, what is the problem with doing it.

Well I assume the advantage is that we can catch scum in changing their suspicions, which is unhelpful since scum never really need to change their suspicions, while town do. Then it also helps scum choose their nightkill, find powerroles, and form effective bandwagons and mislynches.

I think it's better than the game stagnating, but not by much.

The main thing I like about it is the fact that it flat out forces every player to sit down and seriously question their thoughts about each player in the game. Maybe it's just me seeing myself in others, but I reckon people will err on the side of not doing something if they believe they are already doing enough (despite the fact the thing they

are

doing is the wrong thing), if you're with me. Being forced by a model like this to organize your thoughts and back up your opinions in a way you really feel like you can stand behind is a good thing, I think.

[Thin_Man]

what?

[Thin_Man]

My three are Adele, Kabenon and Ryan, I think. There's a fair gap between the first two and Ryan, though.

[Thin_Man]

After reading all the posts the thing that stood out the most to me was thin mans vote of wario in post 57. There is no explanation of this at all. And when prompted by Aimee in post 71 to explain thin man says he wont. But after that his vote on wario was not mentioned again. by Anyone. It really bothers me how no one commented on it especially wario. I know if someone voted me then i would want to know why.

I've made a conscious playstyle choice not to explain my votes, ever.

[Thin_Man]

I graduated from picturebooks when I was three. I'll readjust though, and post in shortbus-friendly pictures, if it's really what you want. Sorry, though, I didn't realise I was dealing with the retarded.

[Thin_Man]

More later.

Also a vote of Adele, I assume. It was sorely missing in your last post.

In addition, my meta on Ryan tells me he likes to jump around and attract attention to himself as town. He's doing the opposite this game: he's posting somewhat infrequently, isn't pursuing any scums very doggedly and his vote seems to be unmoving

Thing is that get me is that the style you ascribe to him as town is also how he acts as scum. This game's nothing like either,

The only thing I've seen is pdcakes throwing my name as suspcious because I haven't said anything (in his words) seems like a possible scum way to bring up somebody (me) who hasn't had any suspicion on me (rightfully so) the entire game.

Well no, not really. You genuinely haven't said anything, and you're fairly scummy.

[Thin_Man]

#1: As I pointed out before, metagaming doesn't really work in this situation because this play is such a large deviation from both normal town and scum. If anything, it's a step in the townie direction, simply because I believe he'd be less inclined to change his playstyle as scum first.

#2: Didn't strike me as especially panicky.

#3: I

do

think that his attitude of acting like people are completely talking out of their asses unless they post a case is fairly scummy. In answer to your earlier question, the main thing thats scummy about you isn't present in your participation because there is so little of your participation. You're doing very little, and your scumlist was sufficiently bizarre as to convince me, at least, that you're just not involving yourself in this game and making bad decisions because of that. Or, of course, you could be scum. That's the decision.

@Everyone who hasn't posted a list yet: Get moving.

[Thin_Man]

Out of the two vote leaders, I think Paradoxombie is more likely to be the scum, and for deadline purposes, you can count my suspcion as a vote (in the sense of me moving it on before deadline hits, not as a condorcet-type thing, as that's impossible)

It's my fourth choice though.

vote adele

I don't really care that she isn't here, though it's irratating re: claims. I'll also take Kabenon if anyone wants to go there.

On that note, if you have a good claim, and you think it's even likely you're going to be lynched today, I strongly suggest erring on the side of claiming early. If you have a confirmable claim then claim it at last minute, it's unlikely that

you'll

be lynched, but the town will then slip onto its second choice, and they'll likely get lynched without a claim, and they could have been confirmable also.

3. overly dismissive of nearly everything.

I haven't been dimissive of anything that didn't deserve it. Beside, if you believe being overly dimissive is a scumtell, it's a little odd you haven't commented on Adele, who, out of her 11 posts, hasn't got a single one that doesn't poo-poo or call ridiculous somoene else's idea, and several of the ideas that she criticises aren't actually even bad ideas. She has done absolutely nothing constructive this entire game, so it's a little bizarre that you pick up on me over her on

that

point, of all points.

[Thin_Man]

I think Twomz, SirWario and Simenon (though Adam moreso) are all exceptionally likely to be town and I would not lynch them. I feel more strongly than pdcakes is town than i do about him being scum, but I will admit I can't put him in the above group (if you care about percentages, about 70%). I would not even think about lynching anyone who isn't you , Adele, Kabenon or Ryan today. I want to lynch Adele or Kabenon. I do not especially want to lynch either you or Ryan, but I think it unlikely that anyone is going to come round to my way of thinking this late in the day and actually get off their asses and vote the truly scummy people. I'm not going to sit there and let my vote sit useless, though, as that's pointless. I consider you the best choice out the realistic options at this point.

Your point against my refusal to give reasoning is bullshit, for reasons previously explained.

And as for the third point, you'd feel pretty stupid if, two hours from lynch deadline, pdcakes claimed cop, then the town, by some miracle, manages to get off him in those two hours onto our second choice, which is you. Unfortunately, you didn't manage to get on during that hour you actually had a chance to save your ass. So then we lynch you, our doctor. We've just utterly screwed ourselves thanks not really to bad scumreading, just the fact that the cop claimed a day later than he should have done. I'm not asking trying to rip claims away from people, but if you've got a claim that can save you from lynch, you should really use it early, just so you don't cost the town a good lynch for the day.

@the point about 'never': I realise this just buys into any scumteam theory you might have, but I think the 'never' point isn't very good at all.

I find the similar behaviour of adele and thin_man suspicious but not enough to vote for them right now.

If all you have against me is the dimissive thing, find for me anything I was dismissive of that wasn't genuinely a bad idea. My playstyle choice of never explaining why I am voting someone pretty much necessitates a dismissive style, working much harder killing bad ideas coming from other townies than creating good ideas myself (seeing as how I am unable to say a lot of them).

[Thin_Man]

I started responding to para, btw. That's why the first four paragraphs relate to the game state before GoW posted, if you get me.

[Thin_Man]

I see little reason to believe you aren't just splicing general town concensuses with false suspicions that would be in your interest.

But do you see any reason to believe I

am

doing it? Because if you're just assuming the worst about me for no apparent reason, then you're bound to have a bad opinion about me, and it really isn't worth my time to fight that kind of unbiased prejudice.

Well having incomprehensible and wide suspicions is suspicious to me, and it would be less so if you gave reasons

It really shouldn't be. I already provided you with an example of a game where I did exactly this same thing as a dead townie, and in both there and here I've stated it as a conscious playstyle choice. To my mind, whilst I haven't proven I do it as scum, I have definitely proven I do it as town. for you to drag it out as a point against me, completely ignoring what should be the most major factor in the opinion making process is at worst exceptionally lazy, and at most rather scummy.

I understood the logic; it doesn't change the fact that in some circumstances it may benefit scum moreso than town

Do you think this is one of those circumstances? Cause if you're just hypothetically posing situations as to how I

could

be scum without thinking as to whether its likely, that's at best really pointless, and at worst an active attempt to turn irrelevant statements into points against me.

[Thin_Man]

I'm only telling you that you have failed to reduce my suspicion, which I assume you were trying to do since it seemed like the paragraph was in response to me.

The fact I failed to reduce your suspicion implies that you had suspicion of me in the first place. I don't care about you putting forward something that puts me across in a neutral light, but making points to show in the particular fashion you have a mixed opinion of someone is bizarre, cause it really doesn't prove anything. I still think the original paragraph you wrote was phrased as an attack against me. Otherwise you're just pointing out that you have no reason to think me

anti-town

, and lack of townieness is a fairly lame reason to be suspicious of someone in comparison to the people who are actually scummy, as opposed to neutral. That is, unless you are convinced everyone else in this game is a townie?

You're totally willing to lynch 4 people today, and I haven't the slightest idea why for the 2 you actually want to lynch. The two things I imagine scum would be interested in at this point are coordinating with buddies and establishing the false suspicions of the people you are interested in lynching. The way in which you posted seemed to lend itself to that. I don't see how I've dragged this out any further than you have.

I don't really care that you don't know why I want to lynch the people I want to lynch. You should really be able to figure out, at the very least, my basic reasons for doing so, and if you can't, you're obscenely lazy, or you're seeing something that I'm not/reading something differently, in which case, feel free to say it to try and change my opinion. Also, I think I've made it exceptionally clear that I don't actually want to vote either of you, and my only reason for doing so is because I believe the main viable choice to be between you and pdcakes. And I think Pdcakes is townish and I think you scummy, so it would be retarded of me to just stick to my two people that I 'want' to vote for and let someone I think is townie get lynched over someone I think is possible scum. If I had a majority share in this game, Adele/Gorgon would likely get lynched today. But that isn't an option, so it seems. (On another note, I personally disagree with you. The thing I think the scum would be most interested in doing at this point is pushing the candidate they want to push toward a lynch without getting suspicion on them. Scum tend to get very antsy around a lynch, and I think you're attributing them far too much sensibility and thought. I agree it's certainly possible that scum theoretically could do that, but I think it unlikely they would)

I don't think I'm a good enough player to make that judgement call, but I do think it'd be better to be safe than sorry. I think it's better than a vibe and I'm not trying to convince anyone, atm.

So you can't decide whether I'm scum or not, so you're going to vote me because I could theoretically be scum? Thats an utterly bullshit opinion, and would lead to town failure in very game if implemented, so I don't get why you're implementing it here.

[Thin_Man]

Thin_man I find it annoying that you blame me for dragging this out when you continue ramble and repeat yourself.

I never accused you of dragging this out. I'm accusing you of having bad opinions.

I haven't voted you as you claimed and I haven't tried to convince anyone of anything except that I authentically suspect you, a favor you have not returned.

That entire statement was an extension. You were trying to imply that I was suspicious for something, and then when I challenged it, you backpedalled, saying that what I did

could

maybe possibly be scummy but you ain't got the brains to or temperament to bother trying to figure out whether it is or not, which begs the question of why you even bothered saying this irrelevant point in the first place.

If being willing to vote someone means that you've decided they're scum, then you must think you've already found them all, since you're now willing to vote and lynch 4 players. A little presumptuous, imo.

But being willing to vote someone does not mean you think them scum. It means you think them more likely scum than all other available options. I certainly don't believe that all 3/4 scum are within that group, though I don't think two is at all unlikely.

[Thin_Man]

I never accused you of dragging this out. I'm accusing you of having bad opinions.

for you to drag it out as a point against me, completely ignoring what should be the most major factor in the opinion making process is at worst exceptionally lazy, and at most rather scummy

ah, ok, I get why you thought that now. I meant 'drag it out' in the sense of 'bring it out', not 'dragging on and on'.

You were trying to imply that I was suspicious for something, and then when I challenged it, you backpedalled, saying that what I did

could

maybe possibly be scummy but you ain't got the brains to or temperament to bother trying to figure out whether it is or not, which begs the question of why you even bothered saying this irrelevant point in the first place.

I think it's totally relevant that somthing you said may benefit scum in certain situations. Especially in a non-normal game where many unexpected situations are possible. I doubt anyone would take my word for it if I am as wrong as you say, anyway.

But you do see why putting forward neutral opinions against people in the way you did is scummy, yes? It means you have an easy out against any defense that anyone makes against your point ("well I am undecided re: that, guess I could be wrong"), and it means that you are effectively baiting someone else to attack someone

for

you, divesting all responsibility for any false attacks nearly entirely onto them.

If being willing to vote someone means that you've decided they're scum, then you must think you've already found them all, since you're now willing to vote and lynch 4 players. A little presumptuous, imo.

But being willing to vote someone does not mean you think them scum. It means you think them more likely scum than all other available options. I certainly don't believe that all 3/4 scum are within that group, though I don't think two is at all unlikely.

Well I was going to make a point in response to your previous statement, but in the end, the simple fact is, I'd rather vote you than a random vote.

So, seeing as how all reasons aren't very good, it's a gut feeling then, yes?

I haven't commented on pdcakes claim yet. I think he's telling the truth and see nothing I dislike in the fashion of the claim.

[Thin_Man]

So, seeing as how all

your stated

reasons aren't very good, it's a gut feeling then, yes?

[Thin_Man]

vote Paradoxombie

I'm even more sure Twomz is town than I am bout pdcakes.

[Thin_Man]

Yes. I've been saying that for a while.

[Thin_Man]

Yes. I've been saying that for a while.

I was just confused why you would basically call Twonz a townie but also have a fallback with pdcakes. Seems like you are throwing names out there in hopes that you aren't looked upon as scummy for doing it.

A fallback what?

I don't really get the point you're making, but I think both Pdcakes and Twomz are townies and para is scummyish. Does that answer your point?

[Thin_Man]

If, hypothetically, I was 100% sure at this point that Para was scum, I would likely totally write pdcakes off as scum. Gorgon would look a bit better. Kabenon slightly worse. Aimee would suggest nothing either way, possibly a very slight move to the scummy. CKD becomes slightly more suspicious. GoW slightly moreso too. SirWario would look better. I realise Ryan is voting pdcakes now, but my thoughts of him wont change much if para comes up scum. Aimee and GoW's moves are both exceptionally small ones though. If he turns up scum in the lynch, I'll be looking at either you or (more likely) Kabenon.

[Thin_Man]

Oh fuck you, aimee, pulling that shit at this stage. Voting Twomz over Para because para has been doing a certain type of discussion that you favour. If you genuinely can't see that Para is scummier than Twomz, you really must be fucking blind. I expected this shit from the other players in the game, but not someone who's been round a while.

And well done forcing a no-lynch there with your vote aimee. Good and productive. I swear to god you don't deserve a vote.

[Thin_Man]

No, I just looked again, and there's not a single thing in your PBPA, aimee, I don't vehemently disagree with.

[Thin_Man]

Not at this point, no. If I unvote now, Twomz will have the majority and get lynched, and my vote on aimee will just sit there uselessly. It'd be stupid of me.

[Thin_Man]

I suggest you claim before you leave, Twomz.

Actually to be honest I'm considering voting Aimee at this point and I'm not afraid of being ripped on for doing a bandwagon. She comes back after obviously lurking (notice how she immediately got to her play analysis just hours before a deadline?) I don't trust it one bit and as you noticed, her vote turned us back to a no lynch again, and I 100% disagree with a no lynch on Day 1.

I agree with Gorgon regarding this.

[Thin_Man]

I am, but not right now. Sorry.

[Thin_Man]

ARGRRGGH

I don't really think Para would unvote and willingly let himself get lynched like that as scum unless twomz was also scum.

vote aimee

I'll be refreshing until deadline, so I can respond if I need to get back on para.

[Thin_Man]

Seeing as how Twomz has left and I have a policy of never explaining my votes, looks like you'll have to get off your ass and do your own analysis, CKD.

[Thin_Man]

an hour in about a minute.

[Thin_Man]

For the record, this is some of the craziest deadline voting and reasoning I have EVER seen. WOW.

Don't pretend this isn't great fun though. It's like forum chat mafia (though admittedly without all the players).

[Thin_Man]

It's not breaking a tie, pdcakes, it's making sure we have a fucking lynch before deadline.

Lynch just needs majority in the sense that one person has to have the most out of all the voted people in this game. Both before and after you voted, aimee was to be lynched. I imagine you didn't know this.

[Thin_Man]

Leading lynch gets hanged. If two are the same no-lynch. pdcakes isn't voting anyone.

Adele has another 24 hours she's yet to pick up her PM.

And please don't assume we're too stupid to have read the rules post again.

[Thin_Man]

At deadline -

If voting is equal there will be no lynch.

If some guy has a majority of votes even 3 votes to 2 votes - they'll get lynched.

^^the post I was actually looking for.

[Thin_Man]

vote Kabenon007

ok so we have some role that can ban someone's vote..interesting...of course that person didnt ban anyone's vote Night 0 could it be a one shot deal (like the one shot doc?)..and this alignment is also unknown...also, it could indicate that we might have a role blocker as well

A one-shot vote block is a broken scum role and a stupid town role.

I was very disappointed re: aimee.

[Thin_Man]

I think we can sensibly assume it is a town role. A role like that as a scum effectively acts as an extra member, and assuming a 3-man scumgroup, it would mean that we are at Lylo

today

, which is a ridiculous role. There could only be two mafia, I suppose, but having two mafia solely so you can give one a voteblock is stupid design, and having a setup with two mafia then giving one a voteblock completely negates any purpose you had behind there being a two man mafia in the first place.

and you were very stupid in regards to aimee. (if you are town)

And you were very stupid regarding Twomz. And your defence of aimee, in all honesty, was almost laughably bad, so I can't give you the credit of any intelligence behind your actions there, either.

[Thin_Man]

vote: curiouskarmadog

you basically painted yourself into a corner by voting for Simenon who was "revealed" to be scum through the first note, while the second note told the town to be wary of you. Be wary of someone does not have positive connotations. If the "author" wanted to address you in a positive light, they easily could have said something like "be aware of CKD, or Pay attention to CKD" this might be a different story. Be wary definitely implies danger. And even if Simenon is acting suspicious, you should most nearly know whether or not he is scum. You choose scum, and I will be consistent to your line of reasoning.

(smile)....Danger to who GoW? if the writer found out I was scum, why didnt we get another note that stating "CKD is scum" like the first note?

interesting, if you think I am scum, what are your thoughts on Simenon?

I personally believe you are reading massive amounts that shouldn't be there into a 'note poster'. There's no reason for him to actually have an information ability.

I've just backed up my reasoning the last two pages on you. You swooped in late, made sure the Aimee lynch went through and now you're saying you didn't know what the procedure was for in lynching. You've been around since 2006 (according to your join date) for you to make the game believe you didn't know what you were doing in your lynch is laughable at best. You didn't read the thread properly, you voted off a top candidate, and now you are back peddling.

He isn't, really.

Okay, Simenon, the mere fact that a townie is a townie is enough to justify a no-lynch over what you did. You had no facts, you hadn't read the thread, you had no reason to vote Aimee logically, plus the fact that she was, as ryan pointed out, doomed already. A no-lynch, while undesirable, could and in this case did kill an innocent townie. A townie is powerful merely by being a townie, voting and voicing opinion, and a random lynch is of these townies is not better than no lynch, because then we still have at least one more townie than we had.

He is admitting he had no facts. He is admitting he hadn't read the thread. He didn't know she was doomed already, something that, really, is a bit pointless arguing against because not only is it exceptionally plausible, especially re: his insulting attitude, it also makes absolutely no difference as to whether he is scum or not, seeing as how that is a mistake made by laziness, not scumminess, if you get me. And I personally believe that you are entirely wrong in your belief that a no-lynch is better than a townie lynch in anything other than full-knowledged hindsight.

what I am trying to judge is what "be wary" means...

Odd that you're putting so much emphasis on these notes, anyway. If you were town, I'd expect you to pretty much conclusively know that the person behind this is full of bs re: having info (not that he has claimed that). Instead, though, you seem to have adopted a type of behavior almost akin to fishing for the note poster to come out so you can ask him more questions regarding his role.

and what was my defense of Aimee?

This

I agree with most Aimee's post, I dont think she was being a hypocrite, and her absence has been explained...this is a crap idea..who started this?..Ryan?..

and you repeatedly going "THERE IS NOO CAASSE"

[Thin_Man]

of course, by repeatedly, I mean once.

[Thin_Man]

ok pdcakes, you are officially on my cant think out of the box list..and that makes me mad. Hey, Capt Oblivious maybe I have some damn knowledge that I dont just want to come out with...but you keep pushing that I have a "hidden agenda" I cant imagine that I will now live to see tomorrow without being Nked..

think it out...why would the town need to be wary of me? What role could possibly make the town wary, but is still not scum..

I am the vig, Capt Shortbus...

so the note is true...the town should "be wary" of me because I can kill, but I am still not scum...

now get your damn vote off me and lynch Simenon. Trading me for 1 mafia is a pretty good deal for this town...

A role that works in the fashion you seem to be suggesting is broken and retarded.

It's like a cop that never actually has to claim.

Calling Adam scum was discussion. Saying we should be wary of you is because you are scummy (were, really, I believe that claim). You're getting far too worked up about a note-poster role.

[Thin_Man]

so you dont believe my claim thin man?

explain the notes then thin man. Is it flavor?...I think they are speaking the truth...why do the notes say simenon is scum, but just be wary of me....

No, I specifically said I do believe your claim.

And I believe the role is something similar to this:

NotePaster: You may send a message to the mod at night. This will be posted on the message board in the dayscene.

It's not a particularly common role, but it's certainly been used several times before. The one time I've ever seen an investigative role that could post messages during the dawnscene like this, the role was worse than insane, and was effectively random in the guilty/innocent posted.

also thin man, any thoughts on simenon's vote on aimee then saying he didnt think she was scum, when he really didnt need to vote anyway?

I think it's a mistake he would have made regardless of alignment. It is obscenely easy to imply from the front post that you need full majority to lynch someone at deadline, and Sim had been lurking enough during the deadline bit that it's perfectly believable that he wasn't aware of the 'change' to deadline policy. To turn the argument around, why on earth would he have made that vote if he was scum and aware of the fact he didn't need to add his vote? All that would have happened is him getting some portion of the blame for lynching a townie. If he was scum, he would have either made a half-hearted defence or just ignored it. Unecessarily making yourself out to be an attacker of the townie that just went down is bad play. As town, it's mostly just an irrelevant action, that I don't see why he would have bothered to make. I don't see any benefit for Sim adding that vote on as either town or scum, so I'm pretty much forced assume that it's just a mistake. I suppose you could, at a strech, equate laziness (in the sense of him not checking the deadline policy properly) with scummy play, but I think that's one of the most borderline scumtells there is.

[Thin_Man]

ps: to clarify, the reason I believe your claim, CKD, is because a D2 vig claim is retarded if you're gambiting scum. It's too much of a massive risk to take, that chance of being headshotted by the real vig. I mean, there are still 8 people unclaimed, and vig is undisputedly one of the top three roles to be in the game, as well as having by far the most lethal counterclaim. Even if you are lying, we should leave it a night, to let our real vig 'counterclaim'.

[Thin_Man]

So you had a chance to nightkill and didn't? How do we know you aren't a SK and your kill attempt was blocked?

Who the hell would you have nightkilled? No-one cept pdcakes has actually claimed yet.

[Thin_Man]

Who said I would have nightkilled anyone? I posed the possibility he could be a SK. And scum aren't going to claim scum in this game my friend, so why it matters that pdcakes claimed is beyond me.

That would be stupid of him. If he's an SK, he has to live until the end of the game. So then, he goes and claims the third (possibly second) most likely role to be in the game without any hesitation, almost jumping into it. If I was to say, now "I am actually the vig, guys, lynch him", then he'd just die. And that loses him the entire game. It's just such a dumb play that I don't want to factor it in. He's just taking an absolutely massive gamble that there is no vig, if he's SK. Far too big of a gamble, imho.

[Thin_Man]

Well I have no reason to think the notes are lies...it didnt say I was scum, but said to "be wary"..which makes since..the town should be wary of a vig.

Pretty sure that means that whoever posted the note thinks you're scummy, champ. (if I'm right about the nature of it, obvobv).

[Thin_Man]

then why didnt it say CKD is scum?

I'm uncomfortable going any further with this, as I'm very close to making explanations for the guy that, when he later describes, people may accuse of him copying from me, and I don't want that. Nevertheless, I can think of one

exceptionally

good reason that it didn't say 'CKD is scum', and if you sit back and think about the reactions the note brought about day 1 for about 5 minutes, you'll probably get it as well.

[Thin_Man]

then why didnt it say CKD is scum?

I'm uncomfortable going any further with this, as I'm very close to making explanations for the guy that, when he later describes, people may accuse of him copying from me, and I don't want that. Nevertheless, I can think of one

exceptionally

good reason that it didn't say 'CKD is scum', and if you sit back and think about the reactions the note brought about day 1 for about 5 minutes, you'll probably get it as well.

I'm probably not gonna get a straight answer but I'm gonna ask anyway. How do you know who wrote the note or what he meant by it?

I don't know who wrote the note, and never said I did. And I'm only imagining what he intended when he wrote it. I'm just fairly sure I'm right.

[Thin_Man]

doesn't change anything though. My question stands.

I think simenon has done enough (note aside) to have some pressure on him AT LEAST.

I think he's one of the towniest people in the game, tbh.

[Thin_Man]

If Thin_Man has two profiles doesn't that get him banned from the site? Mod?

Yeah, because the mod of one tiny mini theme has

total

authority in sitewide matters. Mith and Meme are both fully aware of my alt, and I have never used it to cheat in any shape, way, form or manner, so shut up.

[Thin_Man]

You may say you don't know who it is but you also are making quite a few explanations for somebody you say you don't know.

What exactly are you accusing me of?

Well THIN_MAN, I think you know who the person (or persons) are who are posting the notes.

I don't.

And even if I did, how does that make me suspicious if the note poster is town?

[Thin_Man]

EBWODP:

Especially if it's central that I understand the guys motivations, which would have to mean that I have talked to him. Feel free to come up with a decent scum role that would talk to a guy like that.

[Thin_Man]

A townie with a note ability? I have NEVER heard of something like that before. Anything else on the role you can elaborate on?

It's not that uncommon at all, so I guess what you have and haven't heard of isn't the greatest barometer of liklihood.

[Thin_Man]

though I must admit, I wouldn't mind some clarification on what the ability is.

It's random who gets the note?

It's random what the note says?

[Thin_Man]

Ckd's claim is so completely unlike the others.

Vote:Ckd

What possible reason is there not to, at the very least, not give him another night to confirm he has a killing ability?

But I still want him to confirm his claim.

How?

Why are you taking this game personal all of a sudden? Take a step back for a second and remember, IT'S A GAME.

Correcting some BS that you're spewing is hardly a personal attack. If I was insulting you, I'd be actually insulting

you

, like I was with aimee, not your ideas.

Townie

Simenon
SirWario
pdcakes
curiouskarmadog

Neutral

Paradoxombie
Gorgon
GodOfWine

Scummy

kabenon007
ryan

Is, at present, how I feel.

[Thin_Man]

Ckd's claim is so completely unlike the others.

Vote:Ckd

What possible reason is there not to, at the very least, not give him another night to confirm he has a killing ability?

That will allow another kill, probably a townie, if he's SK.

So you believe that an SK would risk counterclaim by the third most likely role in the game with only one other person alive at that point? How is that not an utterly colossal risk for someone who needs to live the entire game?

[Thin_Man]

claimed, sorry. Not alive, claimed.

[Thin_Man]

I'm perfectly aware that he can confirm having the ability. A mafia cop can confirm having a cop ability. That doesn't mean that he can claim cop without the real cop going 'excuse me sir, you are full of shit', and him getting lynched without so much as a by-your-leave. The benefit of that play, for scum, is that they can draw out the cop in exchange for one of their own. No such luck with the SK. He would have to

know

that there is no vig in the game, otherwise a claim like that is exceptionally risky. And this is a game based on fucking cowboys. Do you honestly think any sensible minded serial killer would be

his entire chance of winning the game

on the fact that none of the 8 unclaimed people are vigs? I don't. I think it's exceptionally unlikely. It's just not human nature to take risks that exceptionally huge, especially when the reward is pointing yourself out to the mafia as someone they will have to kill before endgame. And factor in as well that you can't even argue down any vigs that counterclaim you, like you could with a cop, a doc, or a tracker. A vig just shoots you in the night and you lose, without any chance to argue back. There's no plausible way on earth it isn't a massively bad play for a serial killer to claim vig.

[Thin_Man]

wario: when anyone claims i always start out very suspicious of them (its a strategy i've developed because ive been fooled by false claims). While im less suspicious of you than ckd, the fact that you claimed under no pressure is bothering me.

Claiming early under no pressure tends to be a town tell, fyi. Scum tend to love waiting until the last possible minute to claim, hoping to luck into a position that will allow them to claim a role that is hugely likely to be in the game, like an absent cop/doc, or a mirror of a town role, or just something that makes sense and is unable to be proved false by the other power roles in the town. Or just listen to everyone else's flavour so they don't commit flavour faux pas.

Claiming early under no pressure really isn't indicative of a scum mindset.

[Thin_Man]

I am 99% sure the mafia can not roleblock..or if they can, they get one shot to do it.

Why?

Was wondering this too.

[Thin_Man]

Mafia can quite frequently block. It's tied for popularity with Godfather, really.

[Thin_Man]

Nobody is answering my question. )

When I first read the note I thought maybe a cop had an investigation BUT when there were no night actions done to start the game (since we started in Day) I thought the mod did it to spark discussion.

We started with night.

[Thin_Man]

I'll post later, sorry about my absence.

[Thin_Man]

I change my mind about my vote

Unvote

It really wasn't as justified as I remember.

Mod could we get a prod on Thin_Man?

His absence especially bothers me considering his consistent posting under his normal account

I'm sorry about this, (though I don't really think you can argue at all that I've been consistent under my regular account considering two of the games under that I'm lurking like hell, and I've barely posted under this account in the time I've been away so, it's certainly not unique to this game.) Basically it's because I've been trying to get my mini theme running as good as I can get it. I've finished I'm sending the roles out now, so it really shouldn't be a problem anymore. I'm aware there is a deadline, and I think I'll have more than enough time to hit the game before it.

[Thin_Man]

Ok, so my game's finally up and I have no other modding commitments.

It's 7:30am here and I'm rather drunk, so I won't post tonight. Soon as I wake up, though, I'll post in all the games I've been neglecting.

[Thin_Man]

Ryan/Kabenon/Twomz were the scums?

[Thin_Man]

2/3 aint bad.

Sim got me Dang sim.

PS: I was voteblocker.