Mini 497 - Game Over

[-TinVision-]

Vote SilverPhoenix

[-TinVision-]

Unvote, Vote Knuck

. I will fight you. And that is no lie.

[-TinVision-]

FOS dusterhan

cause all of my games are pretty slow at the moment.

[-TinVision-]

Overanalyzing the random stage much? A FOS is about as far from reckless as one can get.

Weird.

[-TinVision-]

Vote stands til Knuck posts something of content.

[-TinVision-]

I agree that dusterhan needs to stop acting absurd for the sake of it. It's not a pro-town tactic (my best recent example being Dr. Blackstrike's play in Newbie #411) which resulted in a townie getting lynched D1.

[-TinVision-]

Phoenix, there's a difference between random voting and blatant/baseless bandwagoning. If I post that I'm voting for someone because of a silly or arbitrary reason, that is pretty much the same as going to random.org and generating a random number and voting for the corresponding person.

On the other hand, voting someone who already has multiple votes and obfuscating your reasoning later with a "I was just going with the flow... or was I?" brings us closer to a quick lynch and confuses everyone about whether it is a random vote or not.

Note that I have no reason to think that dusterhan is scum at this point. In fact, given my experience in Newbie #361, I've gotten a strong newb town vibe. All I am saying is that his behavior is not pro-town, and that he should rectify that.

[-TinVision-]

I apologize if I confused with my actions in the random stage, but that was not my intention. Random pressure, in my opinion, is a legitimate tactic to spur activity and instigate revealing reactions.

I think the case on dusterhan is quite shaky, given that it's based on a couple posts and then his absence. Speaking of which, mod prod/replacement, please?

Everyone seems a little jumpy. We've got a lot of time to discuss and choose the best lynch candidate as long as we keep the thread active, so let's not rush into anything until we've enough content to work with, OK?

[-TinVision-]

Unvote, Vote dusterhan

. I didn't find your initial behavior that scummy, but your purposeful lurking is very much so. This is the 3rd vote on dusterhan, with 7 to lynch, in case anyone was wondering.

[-TinVision-]

I did in the initial much longer draft of my post and then accidentally edited it out along with a bunch of fluff. Sorry bout that.

[-TinVision-]

Which post? #102 or #104?

#104, of course.

Please don’t blame me for finding the fact that you claim to have 'edited' out your reasoning, when the lack of it is bought into question, and still fail to present it scummy!!

Who’s blaming you? “Failed to present my reasoning”? I did present my reasoning. IT'S BLATANT LURKING. You know the thing that you keep harping about in Atticus and ignoring totally in dusterhan?

The only thing I “failed to present” was the fact that I had overlooked dusterhan’s latest post, so I was working from a different set of facts in Post #102 and Post #104. My posts show a clear change in opinion that is completely explained by my having missed dusterhan’s post #93.

It would be greatly to your credit if you presented a coherent argument that didn’t appeal to emotion.

Vote: -TinVision-

scumscumscumscum

Repeating it doesn’t make it truer. You're looking extremely opportunistic, destructor.

[-TinVision-]

I don't know which of you two to believe on this one, but if we look at the facts, the logical choice is destructor. The posts show a sudden change in TinVision's perpective on dusterhan. And the explanation is that he editted out his reasoning. But that could be a lie. The only facts we have are in favor of destructor's analysis.

You do realize there's no semblance of logic in this? I'm quite serious. Just try to construct a valid, much less a sound logical argument out of that post.

Let's try shall we:

1. Either TinVision is lying or he is telling the truth.

2. The posts show a sudden change in TinVision's perspective on dusterhan.

3. TinVision claims the change in perspective was caused by noticing dusterhan's vote request.

4. The only facts we have are in favor of destructor's analysis.


You see how the first three are facts, and the fourth is an opinion that is not logically derived from the first three? In fact, we can't reach any logical conclusion from the assumptions you've provided.


kabenon, you need to either :

a) construct a logical argument

b) admit that (4) is an opinion and that you were mistaken or lying when you said that you arrived at it using logic.



Note that this is the second time I've had to point out that my explanation of the shift in perspective is not the edit, my explanation is noticing dusterhan's vote request. The reason I didn't explain my change in perspective in my "Vote dusterhan" post was proofreading. There is a significant difference, so kindly stop misrepresenting me.

[-TinVision-]

Meh. All the philosophy classes I’ve taken have made me a little touchy about inaccurate use of the term logic. Anyway, I don’t really think that the fact that I did change my mind suddenly is a “fact in destructor’s favor”. It’s just a fact. You can interpret it any way you choose.

[-TinVision-]

I don’t really know what to do until dusterhan starts posting/gets replaced. If anyone has a good idea, I’m game.

[-TinVision-]

And would you please post something of content, like perhaps something to explain your actions?

[-TinVision-]

@Aimee: Like I said (and provided the link), recently in Newbie #361, a newbie player by the name of Dr. Blackstrike made a few posts early in the day that were similar to dusterhan's in silliness and caused a lot of confusion. He was eventually lynched, and proved to be town. Thus, even though it's a small sample size, I read dusterhan's early posts as a newb town tell.

My change of opinion was caused by my seeing dusterhan's "vote count request" post, as before that point I just assumed he was away from the boards for a couple days. I got frustrated and stuck a vote on him for purposeful lurking (which I'll admit I don't normally sanction voting on this alone). I now feel that dusterhan is just a troll, and should be replaced, not lynched. I'm pretty sure he's been here the whole time, just not posting.

I will

Unvote

though, as I don't want him lynched and my original vote was mostly based on frustration.

Regarding Atticus, I find him less scummy/annoying because while there's not much content, he is at least here, reading the thread and responding to posts made that address him. I haven't really had much time to think about anyone else what with dusterhan's inanity.


@Cavane: Can we get a replacement for dusterhan? He refuses to actually participate in the game, and it's pretty leeching away my enjoyment of the game (which from all evidence, i.e. his actions and his sig, may be his intention).

[-TinVision-]

I’ll commit myself to do a reread in the next couple days since I’m all turned about.

[-TinVision-]

Why are you using a single player from a single unrelated game as an argument for dusterhan being town? That doesn't make sense at all.

I'm not trying to use it as an argument for him being town, I'm just saying I thought his first couple posts seemed consistent with noob towniness. I don't have nearly enough evidence to say more about dusterhan.

Thanks for all the birthday wishes, folks. It was a pleasant surprise to login today.

Anyway, expect something more from me by Monday when I get back in town.

[-TinVision-]

I'm gonna really try to take an interest in this game. It's hard with the mod gone, dusterhan useless, and my personal life being the flaming pile of DOOOOM that it is. Sorry about my extended absence.

[-TinVision-]

I still am not for lynching dusterhan today, though I agree with Seph that we can ill afford to keep him alive til endgame. Perhaps tomorrow if he's still a problem we can reconsider the situation.

Aimee:

Seems reasonably on the ball, but not too quick to wagon. See her interaction with Sephiroth as the random period ends. Vaguely pro-town feeling.

Atticus:

No read.

destructor:

Aggressive and very anti-lynching dusterhan today. Something to file away, but I can't draw any conclusions right now.

joost:

The most active player, actively scumhunting, presenting cases etc. Strongly pro-town read.

kabenon007:

Still on the dusterhan wagon. Not much else to say.

Knuck:

Changed his mind from thinking that voting dusterhan is opportunistic to thinking that lynching dusterhan will "garner some new information" and that "sooner or later he will have to be disposed of". Waffles again by saying that he suspects joost and kabenon007 for "going after dusterhan so early and so hard". On the top of my scumdar.

Nirp:

Has done some scumhunting and asked good questions, but like Aimee, doesn't seem overly anxious to lynch over little things. Somewhat town-seeming.

Sephiroth:

Aggressive player. I don't really like his analysis of kabenon007 in Post #219. kabenon doesn't appear to have actually expressed inconsistent views, unlike Knuck. Jury's out.

vampyrusddg (who replaced Nekka-Lucifer):

N-L was consistently suspicious of dusterhan. No further comment.

FOS Knuck

. That would probably be a vote since this game needs a kick in the pants, but it's been a long time since a vote count.

[-TinVision-]

That's even on this page. Man, do I have egg on my face or what?

Vote Knuck

[-TinVision-]

Mostly because I feel bad for being an inactive bum for a while, which I usually make up for by doing an indepth analysis. However, there's not really enough content to do a PBPA, so I did that little thing. The red-headed stepchild of a scumdar and a lengthy analysis.

[-TinVision-]

...

Who are you suspicious of?

What posts strike you as odd?

Why are you being a

n

idiot

lurker?

Is there some real life complication that you have that stops you from having an opinion?

...

This strikes me as very leading and it wasn't till Sepiroth's quote and mistake that there were only 2 questions that it really hit me, the bolded questions stand out much more than the underlined ones in the quote of his own satement, and both of them offer Dusterhan a way out:

the first says start posting some content which looks like your town.
the second says bow out so someone else can take your place

Both of which lead me to believe this is a coded message between scum buddies saying stop letting the side down, either shape up or bow out

FOS: Atticus, dusterhan

The coded message hypothesis seems rather farfetched to me. Sure, I'll agree those posts show a desire on Atticus' part for dusterhan to participate in the game or be replaced. However, I see nothing to indicate that they're scumbuddies. Pretty much everyone wanted/wants dusterhan to post or be replaced.

FOS vampyrusddg

for such a weak argument.

[-TinVision-]

[quote=destructor]How much pressure could you have hoped to apply by randomly changing your vote to Knuck? And again, I have to ask how could changing to Knuck possibly have been a better move so far as random votes go?[/quote]

OK, frankly I didn't respond to this for one main reason: No one but you has expressed interest in hearing more about this subject (my actions in the random voting phase) to my knowledge. It's apparent to me that there's little, if anything, I can do to change your mind and you're firmly for lynching me. Anyone else, if you're still left with questions after this, I'll be happy to address them. Otherwise, I'll consider the matter closed.

To answer your question: Not much pressure can hope to be applied, but at the beginning of the game, you take what you can get. As to your second question, it's not necessarily better. However, it's a part of an early game strategy to maximize that pressure. People pretty much ignore the first vote completely. The second vote however, as we can see clearly in this game, can get people riled. If a scum gets a vote stuck on them early that they can't be sure is random, it may shake them and lose their composure, revealing something to the town.

Regarding my "brushing off your argument with a discussion on logic" and using the phrase "a point in destructor's favor": I didn't brush the argument off. I pointed out that one cannot claim logical conclusions from the facts you presented. That was important because the "logic" of your argument was claimed as the reason for joining the bandwagon. It's the duty of the town to question and correct when people claim things that are untrue.

Also, it was perfectly fair to mention you by name in discussing that argument. You presented it; thus, in debating and attempting to refute it, naturally your name might come up. You can't separate content and context in Mafia. Why would you be afraid to have people associating your name with an argument against me?

Anyway, if you really think that I didn't answer to your argument satisfactorily, restate it in a concise manner and I'll respond to it soon. It's late, I'm tired, and I won't be digging through posts and writing a response tonight.

[-TinVision-]

[quote=joost]Here you claim your voting was random and not meant to shake Knuck or anyone else. [/quote] I stated that the vote was random but not that it wasn't meant to shake Knuck. I apologized for causing widespread

confusion

, which was not my intent, but rather pressure on Knuck.

[quote=joost]Also, reading back I'd like to know why you waited so long to unvote Knuck? You said in post #58 that you would keep your vote on Knuck till he posted something of content. He posted twice after that, both posts did contain his opinions on the game so far, in one he even voted for Aimee. You never commented on what he said or how he voted so I guess you thought it was good enough. But you didn't unvote. Why not? [/quote]
I didn't get a chance to post for a while, as you can clearly see by looking back.

[-TinVision-]

I'll post something over the weekend, I expect, once I've finished moving into the new apartment.

I will say that you've brought an interesting perspective to the game. I need to read the last couple pages more thoroughly, but I found it interesting that I was never mentioned in your post, despite the heavy scrutiny that has been on me for a good portion of the game. If you're not in favor of the wagon, I'd like to hear why not.

P.S. Holy crap my brain is going to explode trying to keep track of who replaced whom.

[-TinVision-]

Appeals to emotion? Check.

Ad hominem attacks? Check.

Attributing malice where ignorance suffices (e.g. Sephiroth forgetting ckd replaced dusterhan)? Check and mate.

These are things I might forgive in a new player, but anyone who's played enough to have the “Mafia Scum” title should know better.

I’m quite happy with my vote carrying over from Knuck to curiouskarmadog.

[-TinVision-]

I've been without Internet for a few days, so I need to catch up. I'm second-guessing myself on curiouskarmadog, but I always do that. Sigh... rereading.

[-TinVision-]

I got prodded on Friday and promised a post to the mod on Saturday. That obviously didn't happen. Be patient until the end of today and you'll see content. My sincere apologies; I don't want to be replaced and will re-read today. We've had more than enough replacements in this game.

[-TinVision-]

TinVision is still the most scummy in my eyes. Zero scum-hunting, strawmanning, dishonestly, lurking.

As for doing little scumhunting/lurking, yes I have been non-posting. Things happen in real life. I've tried to at least keep up with the thread, but we can't always control our personal lives. Strawmanning? In the words of forum idiots everywhere, pics or it didn't happen. Show me where I strawmanned someone and I'll prove you wrong. Dishonesty? As far as I know, that's your opinion, unless you can present a case where I've contradicted myself.

kabenon's use of the word 'logic' was trivial. The beef of his post was in this sentence: "The only facts we have are in favor of destructor's analysis."

Yes, and I addressed that after he posted it. I plainly disagree. In order for "the facts to be in favor" of your analysis, it would have to be true that we could infer from the facts that it was more likely for me to be scum than not. I don't think the town as a whole thinks that is true at all. If they did, I would have been lynched weeks and weeks ago when that statement was made.


I still think that curiouskarmadog is the lynch for today. Why? Much of his defense has been to talk about what will happen tomorrow predicated on the notion that he will be lynched and turn up town today. I don’t care for it. His refusal to do a point-by-point defense against Sephiroth’s arguments because “no one will read it” and that he does not see the point of addressing attacks is, frankly, anti-town. His vanilla claim is no help to his cause. Further, we have an enormous amount of reactions and interactions to go on between ckd and dusterhan, whom he replaced. Every person in this game was forced to take a position on the dusterhan debacle, and the wagon on ckd has produced a lot of reactions as well.

I feel that ckd is most likely scum. Further, knowing his alignment for certain will be an invaluable tool for reanalyzing D1’s posts. I really can’t imagine a better lynch.

Confirm Vote curiouskarmadog

[-TinVision-]

Nobody feels like responding to what I said about CKD being the best lynch by far?

[-TinVision-]

I don't like anyone who sets up

if x, then we lynch y tomorrow

type scenarios in anything except in cases of counterclaims. It's just not good practice.

[-TinVision-]

Well, as I made the argument that CKD's lynch would give us useful information regardless of alignment, it's time for me to go back and reread, mostly the dusterhan episode, and see what I can see.

[-TinVision-]

Expect an analysis post in a few hours.

[-TinVision-]

Now let's look at the finger pointing majorities:

kabenon007 (3 Votes)
-TinVision- (2 Votes)

Both of these guys voted for a now-known townie.

Both the guy I replaced and the doctor voted for -TinVision-

, and at least one known townie voted for kabenon007.

Your point?

Out of: -TinVision-, Sephiroth, joost, kabenon007,

three are probably mafia

, and so keep in mind that while one of them might LOOK scummy, make sure that your eyes are not clouded when you peer at them.

Erm. You think that most likely, THREE out of those four people (including me) are scum? I find this incredibly scummy. You genuinely believe that you've managed to find three scum out of four. Call me skeptical, but I don't know anyone who can replace in and point out three scum. I'm especially skeptical when their evidence is ONE deadline vote count.

I'm strongly considering going along with Flameaxe at this point because Mizzy's post set off my scumdar unbelievably.

P.S. Sorry that my analysis post hasn't shown up. I have wireless pretty much never lately.

[-TinVision-]

Erm. You think that most likely, THREE out of those four people (including me) are scum? I find this incredibly scummy. You genuinely believe that you've managed to find three scum out of four. Call me skeptical, but I don't know anyone who can replace in and point out three scum. I'm especially skeptical when their evidence is ONE deadline vote count.

Completely disagree with this. Have you ever played with Glork?

Nope. Like I said: No one I know.

@mizzy: Your reasoning is flawed. You think that three out of four are anti-town, based on the odds? There's no probable basis to think that. The odds against all of the scum jumping on the same bandwagon are pretty damn big. Even with a deadline, the only reason to do that that I can imagine would be if the next-biggest wagon was a scum, but I still find it quite implausible.

[-TinVision-]

I've been without Internet access, as my sig for the past couple weeks has implied. Sorry, the horrors of real life, etc.

[-TinVision-]

Unvote, Vote Mizzy

. I stated my reasons before specifically, as SeraphicMirth should note. As I recall, no one responded to it *open invitation*.

[-TinVision-]

Unvote, Vote kabenon007

. OK, done deal.

[-TinVision-]

Mispeled is correct that chances are incredibly low that we started with a doc, sane cop, and a vig. However, it's at least as likely that vig is a fakeclaim as it is that our cop is insane.

[-TinVision-]

Sigh. I really need to get my ass in gear. I'm still unsure on whether I think mispeled is likely scum or not.

[-TinVision-]

Whoa. I was certain I’d been replaced in this game. My sincere apologies for making this game sucky for others by my lack of presence.

With 3 to lynch, and two people with votes cast, the voters and votees are the only lynches to consider.

Seph: Quick to risk the game at lynch or lose which certainly is scummy.

Mizzy: Doesn’t OMGUS vote at Lynch or Lose. This is an enormous blaring scumtell. If you’re a townie and someone votes you at lynch or lose without a subsequent quicklynch, the person voting you must be scum. Therefore, you would vote them rather than risk the game voting someone else.

Further,

Unvote just to be sure, but I think this pretty much proves who is so in a few cases.

Shanba = town, Seph = scum, Flame = town, and the only one who is up in the air even the slighest is Tin, who I think is our second scum.

This quote makes ridiculous amounts of un-sense. The person you voted without any real preface is the only person who's up in the air as to alignment? You've pigeon-holed everyone else except yourself there. If there's a chance I'm not scum, who else could be, in your mind?

Pay heed: At least one of Seph or Mizzy is scum for certain, since there was no quicklynch.

My money’s on a Seph/Mizzy scumteam. The whole debate between the two seems very fake. However, Mizzy is, by far, the scummier-looking of the two.

Vote Mizzy

[-TinVision-]

Sorry I sucked so hard, guys. My gut is teeeeeeeeerrible. Was so certain Mizzy was scum.