Mini 518: Underground Mafia, The Nightmare is Over!

[Sudo_Nym]

I'm here.

[Sudo_Nym]

Vote: CuriousKarmaDog

I always do what random.org tells me to.

[Sudo_Nym]

I wouldn't be too worried, myself. At worst, it's essentially a random vote. At best, maybe the slightly increased pressure will give us some good knowledge (but I wouldn't hold my breath).

[Sudo_Nym]

Well, I can understand Korrie being a little more jumpy than everyone else, being the guy on the hotseat. But I wouldn't say he was being defensive.

I know it seems illogical, Korificus, but we have to do

something

to get the game open, and while throwing random votes around may not be ideal, its real the only thing we can do; I can think of a few things that would be more efficient, but they rely on people telling the truth (not something that's likely to happen).

[Sudo_Nym]

I can think of a few things that would be more efficient, but they rely on people telling the truth (not something that's likely to happen).

Really? I'd like to know what you've got in mind.

Well, don't look too much into it, as this is merely theory, and has a long way to go before I can even attempt to call it viable. So, warning: Saying this does not mean I think we should do this. Actually implementing the plan I'm about to state out loud (or type, as it were) is a

stupid

idea.

Well, my thing was to start off with a mass claim. I know, it sounds stupid (and it is), but my thinking is thusly- scum aren't going to claim scum, but they might claim a power role. Multiple power role claims are a good basis for discussion, assuming that their's only one of each. The problem is, not only are scum not going to claim scum, but power roles might claim townie, just so they won't be immediately targetted night one. So I'm still working on the idea- not that I ever expected it to see play in an actual game.

Funny how my mind works sometimes, eh?

[Sudo_Nym]

What the hell, man? Did I not put the disclaimers in there, or did you just not read them? Your post tells me that you didn't read the whole thing, merely skimmed it and hoped we wouldn't notice.

We noticed.

unvote, vote: Mexal

I know, it seems a little OMGUSy, but at this point, this is the most legitimate reason I have to vote for anybody.

[Sudo_Nym]

Well, how do you like that? I come back from school, and find a whole bunch of posts. I'm attacked for my "idea", and scroll down to find that there isn't a widespread misunderstanding; just the same guy who I'm already voting for, and people who understand what was actually going on.

The downside is, you guys stole my rebuttal before I got a chance...

[Sudo_Nym]

First of all, I want it known that I have nothing against Mexal. I actually respect the aggressive playstyle, even though I don't practice it. My vote against him was partially OMGUS, plus it didn't seem like he actually read my post, and allegation that had turned out to be false. Mostly, it was because that little sliver was the closest thing to an actual reason to vote anybody; my previous vote was completely random. So,

unvote

. His playstyle is naturally going to attract attention as a scum, though, from the things I've seen, but that doesn't necessarily make it so.

Secondly, I haven't even been gone for a day, and I'm lurking? I spent all day yesterday at work, then went to school in the evening, and posted when I got home, then went almost immediately to sleep. I get up the next morning, and I'm accused of lurking? At least let me be away a full 24 hours before the Dirty Lurker tag comes down on my head.

Thirdly, I want it known that my idea was never so simple as a massclaim- but I knew the word would set off flames in any case. Don't get me wrong, it did include as it's centerpiece, but it was more complicated than that. I didn't express the whole because it wouldn't make it less stupid, just more complicated, so the reaction wouldn't have been any different. I came up with the idea after a meatworld game that devolved into random voting by the masses well into the endgame. I was trying to find an idea that would reduce the randomness, and this is what I came up with. It's terrible right now, but I think it could be something, if people are willing to help me develop it.

I knew I would get called out for it, and while I don't like it, I do accept it. Mexal does have a point- somebody with malicious intentions could do exactly what I did, then press it to their advantage. All I can hope is that people realize I didn't intend it like that. And yes, I do realize that that requires people believe I'm telling the truth in a game of mafia.

[Sudo_Nym]

Waiting for a reply from Sudo_Nym about what? I answered about the claim snafu, and I don't intend to say any more about that. I don't have a list of players and my level of suspicion regarding them at this point, if that's what you want, but I do have some thoughts about certain people:

Mexal- Like I said, I appreciate the aggresive gameplay, though I don't do so myself. His style lends itself to natural scuminess, but he strikes me as being innocent enough. I'd say probably town, but could go either way. If he is town, he probably doesn't have a power role- most people (even the aggressive ones) tend to lay off a bit more when they have a power role; though this rapidly denegrates into WIFOM.

Anata- Little antsy; tries to make me out to be a lurker, though I haven't even gone a whole day without posting. Admittedly, I don't act as often as everyone else seems to, but that doesn't mean lurking.

Jitsu- Interesting. When the whole thing started, says its innocent; that I was locked into saying something after he asked. However, he has seemingly reversed his opinion on the insistence of Mexal. Perhaps he's trying to blend in with whatever mob appears to be in the lead?

The others, I don't have anything substantial on yet.

[Sudo_Nym]

Mexal insisted upon the point; whether he insisted directly towards you is irrelevant.

And since when does pointing out what should be obvious become anti-town? Knowledge is power, friend- and at this stage, the mafia has all the knowledge. Anything that increases the level of knowledge to the players increases the town's chance to win. Besides, the point I made should be readily available to anyone who cared to research the game before playing it. Though I do understand if others didn't do as much prereading as I did before my first game.

[Sudo_Nym]

The mafia do not have all the knowledge. The knowledge that they still lack is any possible town power roles. The exact thing that you are endangering with your suggestion.

All I commented on was that I believe he's vanilla townie. What purpose could possibly be served by saying such a thing in-thread if I were mafia?

[Sudo_Nym]

I love how people post that their votes are for pressure. For me, at least, saying that a vote is for pressure actually reduces the level of pressure on a person.

And my answers were never designed to satisfy anybody but myself, and for good reason. I don't know you from Adam; to attempt to soothe your nerves would be a fruitless endeavor. I post to satisfy myself, mainly, as I'm the only member of the game whose mind I know, and I do this regardless of my alignment. It works out well for me, normally, but occassionally gets me into trouble.

The main outpouring of this is theory. I prefer to talk in theory than anything else, because I find it to be an easier way for my mind to approach the game. However, this sometimes means that I come up with ideas that sound great to me but are unconnected with reality.

[Sudo_Nym]

Sorry, I just felt it needed to be said. I was wondering why I tend to do so well in Newbie Games, yet poorly in regular games, and this is the conclusion I came to- that theory works well in Newbie games, and not so well in regular games. I don't know whether it's helpful or not, or whether it's even relevant, but it's something I was thinking about when I came to post, so I put it up. Feel free to ignore it, if you please; it was mostly for my own benifit, but if you guys want to use it as a defense, or use it to lynch me- I'm fine either way, I actually feel better getting it off my chest.

I don't know why I felt compelled to post it here, but I did.

[Sudo_Nym]

Why would I try to get lynched? You forget, that while I've been around longer than some, I'm still new, and still learning. And my own style of learning is to propose as many ideas as I can, and then listen to the reaction to learn whether the idea is good or bad, and why. The massclaim idea was similar. I knew it was bad, but I didn't know exactly why- a situation that made my think there's possibility for improvement down that path.

And putting pressure on someone is not what I found funny- it's a proven technique. But declaring that it's for pressure is what seems counterproductive; it seems like it would be more effective to simply vote, wait for the response, and then explain that it was a pressure vote.

[Sudo_Nym]

It strikes me as simply dumb to think that you're posting for only for yourself.

I post for myself because I know how I think, and what looks good to me. If I knew what others look for (and I'm sure I'll learn), I would adjust to that. But for now, I have to go with what looks good to me.

This is a game, and the point of a game is to win. If you're playing a game well, you're playing it with the goal of winning. This "lynch me or don't lynch me, I don't give a darn" thing is utterly stupid.

Perhaps I miscommunicated my point. I play to win; I play the best way I know how. If I were playing a game by myself, then I might play just for fun. But this is a team game (whether townie or scum), so I owe it to my teammates (and my opponents) to play to win. Sometimes that works, and sometimes it doesn't. And I'm not a machine, either- sometimes I play a game and think "Damn, I played well." and sometimes it's "Damn, I sucked that round." As I gather experience, I'll shift more toward the former.

And being lynched doesn't bother me- it happens, and I don't take it personal. I don't want to get lynched, that's true. But ultimately, all townies win when the town wins, regardless of whether they're lynched; if I get lynched and give helpful information in the process that helps the town find scum, then that's a trade I'll take. Remember, the town has the numbers; an attrition strategy (if it could be worked out here) is a winning strategy for the town.

If you're just in this thread as an expose of your personal theoretical genius, go make a blog somewhere and post there. Don't mess up the game. I would like to win, and if you're a townie, I would prefer that you hop off your high horse and make yourself useful.

I actually really respect this. I'm not trying to muck up the game- believe it or not, that was my defense strategy. Most people I see defend themselves by explaining

what

they think, and even among the most experienced players on the site, that usually winds up in a shouting match, with both sides entrenched. I hoped that explaining

how

I think would be more effective.

And I never meant to put myself up or brag by saying I'm good at theory. I just meant that it's the approach that works best for me; sometimes, the lack of experience results in it being applied incorrectly. I don't mean to say that my approach is better than anyone else's, or that it makes me smarter, or anything. Just that it's what works for me.

[Sudo_Nym]

You say you like to approach the game by throwing out theories -- fine. Why don't you throw out some theories about who you think is scummy and why -- or is that too much to ask? I'd prefer reasoning and analysis, but at this point, if theorizing is your strong point, I'd prefer theories over "I don't care if you lynch me or not."

My theory about alignments? My leading candidate right now is you, actually, mainly due to the shift in your reaction to my opening idea. On the one hand, maybe you just changed your mind after Mexal made some good points against me. On the other, you could easily be a scum who sided with me when I looked strong, then shifted sides when the tide turned. This could go either way, however, which is why I withhold my vote for the time being.

Following you are those who've done some significant lurking. Usually, I discount this outside of newbie games, but with so many new players, I've decided to keep it. Often, newbie-scum lurk in the hopes that nobody will notice them and just let the town tear themselves apart.

On the town side, the only one I feel is strongly town is Mexal. True, he argued against me, but he matched his aggressive playstyle with solid logic, and I believe this is a strong townie tell. Of course, he could be a scum doing a good job, but this is WIFOM.

[Sudo_Nym]

Well, the situation is interesting.

Unlike Miztef, I don't have a problem with Korlash calling Mexal for a reason, though that depends on motivation (a damn hard thing to sort out). I think Korlash just wanted to know what Mexal was thinking, as Mexie had been very upfront for the majority of the game, then goes to a very quiet "I agree" vote. I do think anata has been very scummy (and in newbie games, lurking gains scummy flavor that it loses as the players become more experienced), but I don't fault Korificus calling out Mexal for a seeming change in styles.

I don't think Mexal's change is significant, though. I would have expected more, based on what I've seen of him, but saying "I agree" is not scummy. I've done it myself in various games.

[Sudo_Nym]

My win condition is to lynch scum, not obtain information from a lynch

This statement strikes me as really wrong. There's almost nothing that can be done to prevent a day one townie lynch- it happens to just about everybody. The best that can be hoped for is to get good information that will lead to the scum all being lynched. Obviously lynching the guy most likely to be scum is the best strategy; but shouldn't some allowance be made to gathering information for future rounds?

And then there's Mexal. First of all, calling a player a fucking idiot is never acceptable under any circumstances. This is a friendly game- one that has us at each other's throats, admittedly, but it's meant to be fun. And this actually has some relevance, as I've found that the players most likely to fly off the handle in a mafia game are generally scum getting frustrated with attempts to lead the town by the nose.

[Sudo_Nym]

Sorry for the lack of response from me; I was waiting for the replacement to come in, but it didn't happen as quickly as I would like. I have to say, this is the most content heavy game I've ever been in, and it's difficult to keep up sometimes between classes.

In any event, I'm really happy to see Jitsu's large posts- however, I'm not sure that we needed a wall on why we should wait to see opinions about anata, since such a thing could have been said more succinctly and more persuasively in a shorter form. I've seen scum post large posts on tiny points to look impressive (and townie). I don't think that's what's happening here, but I have seen it.

[Sudo_Nym]

I know I shouldn't wait here; usually, it isn't a problem to wait, but that's not gonna work here, as the game moves quickly.

[Sudo_Nym]

Gunslinger is wonky, to use his own phrase against him, but I don't know that he's scummy, as it were. His original cases (for me and Jitsu) were a little silly; and he switches to me rather quickly when Mexal turns the tide. If Mexal is scum, then gunslinger probably is too, but I don't think it goes the other way, if you understand what I mean.

On re-read, Anata doesn't seem so bad; a bit misguided, and could be fooling me. But my scum-detecter didn't go so high on her after re-reading.

oEJo's absence bothers me a little; he was in a game or two with me (now over), and was active. Why he'd be active there, and leave here confuses me, but I don't know that it's scummy.

Most people who request replacement so early fall into one of the following catergories:
-People who have townie roles, and think that's too boring.
-People who drew a scum role for the first time, and are scared, so they quit.
-People who have real life issues.

Now it obviously impossible to know which catergory a person falls into in the middle of a game, and even afterwards it's tricky, and occasionally you get someone who falls into a smaller catergory, such as people who suddenly lose internet access or something, so this isn't an all-inclusive list, nor is it in order of frequency.

[Sudo_Nym]

Getting replacements can take quite a while, especcially when you're looking for three. There are surprisingly few people willing to replace into a game that's more than 5 pages long.

[Sudo_Nym]

Sorry, been spending the last couple days at the hospital with my Granddad, been mostly sticking to games I can get through in less than five minutes.

I hadn't hoped that Adel would be so helpful on a replace, but I suppose the title doesn't come for nothing. Korlash has given me a weird feeling for a while now, but I couldn't put my finger on it. Now that my paranoia has been given shape, I'll

vote: Korlash

More to come after I catch some sleep, though there's a funeral for a family friend tomorrow, so I might be absent for most of the morning.

[Sudo_Nym]

To be honest, my reasons for voting Korlash are mainly due to his reactions to Adel. Rather than address anything, he just called it all a load of crap and demanded some better reasons, so that he might "defend himself". I find it interesting to watch a person's reactions; the ones that seem out of place and over the top are usually faked by scum.

[Sudo_Nym]

so I hope my vote against him (if he turns out scum) will be seen as a townie move.

This sticks out at me like a sore thumb. Seems like you unvoted to try and remove some momentum from your scumbuddy, then jump back on so you'll be on the record as having lynched a scummy (which I believe is called distancing). I'm now very comfortable with my vote as is.

[Sudo_Nym]

First of all, welcome Mr. Flay. Many games have we played together, this is the first you weren't modding. So this is going to be a brand new experience.

Second of all, Adel. The charts and graphs and refusal to explain himself strikes me as mixed at a personal level. On the one hand, he appears to be attempting to reduce the game to a science, a desire that I share. On the other hand, it makes it very hard to get any sort of read on him, good or scum, and as Flay said, this seems to make him think he's invincible.

And my vote remains on Korlash (but see below), because I don't really buy the roleblocker claim. Could be true; but I doubt it.

Miztef catches my eye:

I'm still struggling a lot with the korlash vote. I want to believe he is scum, but I'm just not sure. I've already voted/unvoted/voted him, but I'm gonna have to unvote again. He did claim roleblocker, and no matter what the statistics say, I'm gonna believe him for now.

Backing off Korlash only after the wagon starts to fall apart, but claims to have doubts going way back.

I noticed Gunslinger and Sudo are both on the Korlash wagon as well. To me, this makes them suspicious. I know I was just on the wagon, but I've been deeply struggling with it, where as those 2 just plopped on and were done with it.

Seriously? You accuse the two of us of just plopping down and being done with it? As Korlash already pointed out, Gunslinger was on the wagon long before it was really a wagon. And I think it's odd that you believe you get a pass for being uneasy, while the slinger and myself must be suspicious because we didn't share your angst (which I can't understand how you'd know either way).

unvote, vote Miztef

[Sudo_Nym]

Some of us have lives. I was at my uncle's wedding yesterday.

Traditionally, the hammer vote brings suspicion upon it's caster, but Miztef had a big enough wagon that it's hard to say too much about Jitsu that couldn't be said about more.

Korlash still bothers me. I still don't buy the roleblocker claim; I have a feeling that he used it because he was sure there would be no counterclaim. Though I agree with his refusal to encrypt anything as per Adel's instructions, I have a feeling it's because he's got nothing to encrypt.

[Sudo_Nym]

Traditionally, the hammer vote brings suspicion upon it's caster, but Miztef had a big enough wagon that it's hard to say too much about Jitsu that couldn't be said about more.

Huh? Jitsu didn't hammer, Adel did.

My bad. Don't know where I got that idea; Flay cast the L-1, and Adel cast the hammer. Would have been the other way around if Adel had bolded his vote the first time.

[Sudo_Nym]

Sorry, life is busy.

I'm on record as not believing Korlash's claim, and I don't particularly care for his playstyle.

vote: Korlash

[Sudo_Nym]

Damn. I thought that the thanksgiving weekend would be slow. Shows me, eh?

I'll finish rereading later- I've been on a 96 hour turkey and pie bender, and I need some sleep.

[Sudo_Nym]

Okay, I'd just like to say that I'm not sure how productive searching for Korlash's partners through who bussed him isn't likely to be terribly fruitful. Did Korlash's partners vote for him? Probably. But after being caught in a lie, Korlash became a sinking ship- and all the scum were searching for a lifeboat.

That said, I doubt that the scum started the bandwagon on Korlash, just decided it was convenient to jump onboard when it was clear he was going down.

[Sudo_Nym]

Sudo_Nym has been working, attending school, and studying for finals, so he's going to be strapped for posting time; he's been reading however, so don't think I'm falling behind.

[Sudo_Nym]

And he's 12 years older than me!

[Sudo_Nym]

Sorry, it's the hols and finals week. I may be scarce on the entire internets for a bit. I'm actually going to reread as well, though probably not until tomorrow (tomorrow being my day off).

[Sudo_Nym]

Okay, I'm not done, but here's some preliminary thoughts:

Setael: Came into a somewhat difficult situation, replacing anata, who drew a lot of fire. Makes a big contribution that leads to Korlash being lynched (though Korlash wasn't doing too well for himself anyway). So there's some chance Set's bussing, but I think it's slim.

Adel: I don't know what to think, really, and I don't know if anyone does. While I admire the playstyle- which is my ideal taken to an extreme, with a level of competence I'm still working towards, it makes Adel utterly impossible for me to get any real read on. I'm a little curious about why Adel would single me out to lead the town by the nose; either Adel knew I was innocent (cop/mafia?) or had some other qualification in mind.

I'm still slogging my way through, but that's what I have right now. They're a little scattered, but I've been jumping around a bit rather than reading straight through.

[Sudo_Nym]

Really, Flay? Because I kinda like Oman; but then lurking annoys me less in general than for other players, apparantly. The major point against Oman is that he waited for so long in the day until he was called out to say anything, which sounds similar to lurking I admit, but seems fundamentally different to me somehow.

[Sudo_Nym]

The question is whether Adel is serious. Adel may say that the vote is unremovable, but I doubt that that is the case; while I don't doubt that Adel seriously believes that Flay is scum (or seriously wants us to believe that Flay is scum), I think that should sufficiently world-shattering data appears, the vote will switch.

Secondly, did anyone think that it would be so straightforward as "Adel is communicating?" From what I've read of Adel, he's mysterious and difficult to predict, yet in a very logical way; Adel is helpful in an unhelpful way, and unhelpful in a helpful way, if that means anything. What I'm trying to say, is that Adel is capable of great insight as town or scum, but isn't particularly likely to explain them to anyone.

Right now, I'm most suspicious of jerrubeal. A few weird moves on the last few pages have left me scratching my head- trying to bandwagon Flay quietly not least among them.

[Sudo_Nym]

I have to say, Mr. Flay's playstyle is different from what I expected. Admittedly, I've never had him as a fellow player, but after modding 3 of my first 4 games, I somehow pictured him being more like Adel has turned out to be.

So far, my big three are Flay, Adel, and Jer- which I imagine is the same list everyone else has, barring those three themselves.

[Sudo_Nym]

I admit I'm still on the fence regarding Adel and Flay. Like many, I'm convinced one of them is scum; but I don't feel confidant saying which one. Gun to my head, I'd probably go with Flay, just because I think Adel came off a bit better in their exchange. Like most things, I wouldn't be surprised if I'm wrong.

[Sudo_Nym]

First of all, you get such a limited reaction after nine days is that I've been gone for nine days; my own Christmas plans didn't leave a lot of time to analyze in depth.

My main concern is tone. During the whole conversation with Adel, you seemed more frantic; like you were afraid of unraveling. The doubt comes because such things are hardly reliable through text. I also don't particularly like your interactions with Setael.

On the other side of the coin, I don't like the whole Adel/Jerubbeal thing either, but I believe that can be explained more easily than Flay/Setael.

What really gets me turned around is that I like Flay/Setael as a pair, but I don't especcially like Setael/Korlash or Flay/Korlash. There aren't any players I suspect that I believe match up particularly well with Korlash as a partner. Setael seems most likely under the bussing argument, but I still don't like it much.

I haven't voted for Flay because I don't believe he's the best lynch. Though I believe him more likely than Adel, I think a Setael lynch would tell us more about the game.

[Sudo_Nym]

I still want to hear why you think Setael is a better lynch than Adel or Flay and what you expect to learn from it compared to an Adel or Flay lynch.

Mainly, I think Flay and Adel will be more useful than Setael on the next day. If Setael comes up scum, we can proceed from there with Flay. If he's town, I'd rather have Flay alive for tomorrow.

However, I'm not too eager to vote for him, mainly because I don't want to screw up the deadline. Should it come to that, I'd rather lynch Flay than Adel.

[Sudo_Nym]

Mainly, I don't want to screw up the deadline lynch. I'm not sure if that's possible, since it would require a fairly construed series of events. However, I'll formalize it, if you want.

Vote: Setael

[Sudo_Nym]

how does you voting for Setael screw up the dead line lynch when you werent voting anyone to begin with?

Well, it's silly, really; so much so that I hesitate to talk about it. However, it lets Setael get up to three votes, which, if given the right series of unvotes and other events on the part of other players, could drop us below the threshold for a deadline lynch. Like I said, it is incredibly unlikely, but it becomes possible. Probably wasn't even worth mentioning, now that I've actually analyzed the thing.

[Sudo_Nym]

Well, I'm sorry I've been away; the New Year celebration around here was crazy, and combined with the start of the winter term has kept me hopping.

Let's see if I can inject my own brand of Sudo-psuedo-logic in the game:

There's no reason Adel should be at L-1. The only real evidence I've seen against her is that she may have bussed Korlash, and her style is different.

I'm thinking that it's much more likely that Flay is the scum than Adel is; though this assessment current includes more gut instinct than I'm comfortable with, which is why I refrain from hammering.

The best I can promise is that I'll re-read the last dozen or so pages to see what I can see.

[Sudo_Nym]

I just wanted to apologize. Between School and Work and the grey screen of death, getting on the site has been difficult.

I do want to say that, however it turns out, Jitsu's plan was well thought out, and I would have supported it if I'd gotten here on time.

[Sudo_Nym]

Damn, I missed it. This is first time since my last post I've been able to log in without getting greyscreened, and the game is already over.

Hang my luck, will you?