Mini 520 - Triumvirate Mafia - ABANDONED

[Flyinghawk]

/confirm

[Flyinghawk]

Random Vote: theninthlayer

[Flyinghawk]

Unvote

I have a useless random vote here, so I'm unvoting for lack of reason.

And I picked up a prod mod, sorry for the lack of activity.

[Flyinghawk]

In my opinion, the whole distancing thing is a null tell, the idea of it was a stretch in the first place, and its not that big of a scum tell on MOS. At least, it did get the conversation started, though.

[Flyinghawk]

@Phate: I don't agree that unvoting = scum. Basically, I felt like moving some stuff forward in this game and didn't like the way/tone you were posted, so I just send a vote out there to see what happens.

I absolutely agree that Spider Jerusalem is looking scummy as well.

Not much to go on but I'm going to

FoS: Mastermind of Sin

because so far I find that he pushed something on some very fishy logic then after people disagreed dropped the I've put too much into this to do anymore line. However, we don't want to start bandwagoning over something so small, so I'd love to hear some of the more quiet give their points of view.

Agreeing with the majority view here.

I agree that in your specific post there was nothing seriously misleading, and if my statement came off that way I'll clarify. I was trying to speak in a more general tone, largely because I felt you intended a clear response but I have seen posts done that way get muddied up very quickly. Perhaps it's just a difference in opinion but I think it's much clearer to the town as a whole if you avoid the use of witty devices.

I don't disagree with most of this. However, if you'll note your discussion with SirT started shortly before the large amount of unvotes. In my mind and perhaps in others, that discussion was worthy of the end of random voting whether we agreed with your stance or not. This in addition to the other discussion about claims gave us something in game to discuss and analyze.

Again, more agreeing.


I'll

unvote vote: Spider Jerusalem

on just these minor tells only because no one else strikes me as scummy.

Also, besides a random vote on me, Spider has not voted on any of his suspicions. To me, being non-committal, especially in an early phase in the game, is scummy because it leaves no real tracks to follow for inspection on later days.

So you are talking about agreeing with other's views as being a scum tell. While in some cases this is true, I usually find that over-agreeing is a scum tell only if the person whose views are being agreed with is scummy himself. MOS, in my opinion, hasn't been acting all that scummy. Grasping at straws perhaps, but not scummy. Furthermore, there are a Finite amount of views that are able to be had in this game. It is not impossible that by coincidence SJ and MOS have simliar views on certain things(and you can see the Spider is NOT saying "I agree with MOS" but rather "I agree with part of what your saying, but not this:...")but not on other things.

Finally, Miztef, if you are so worried about people agreeing with each other, what say you about the fact that you are just adding on to what Phate said in post 103?

[Flyinghawk]

*grins ruefully*

Phate, regardless of saying that you aren't doing it, you are totally calling the kettle black here. Even worse than that, FlyingHawk has been a member of this site since the end of May, and he even played mafia elsewhere before joining. So he is definitely *not* new here. And SJ joined this site before you did, Phate, so you have no business acting like you know what you're talking about when it comes to newbies here. That's just ridiculous.

I may very well be full of shit. That is a theory that has been proposed more than once. I've played Mafia elsewhere (physically) as well - in fact, I didn't even know it existed online until I noticed it on a M:tG forum I frequent. SJ joined a total of one day before I did, and because he is classified as "townsperson" and I as "goon," I can conclude that I have posted more than him - I am involved in multiple other games. So SJ's one day worth of seniority means nothing, IMO.

And rather than stating that I have no business acting like I know what I'm talking about, why not tell me why I'm wrong? Why not address the issue, rather than the ad hominem? Because if I am full of shit on this, which is very likely, I'd like to know, that I might become another player. But if I'm not, than your response, which doesn't actually address the issue, is to be expected. So yeah, if I'm full of shit, tell me why, not just that.

Bullshit.

Bullshit to you too.

Everyone, check out the start of a two-pronged attack from Phate/Miztef.

That's funny, because I've had the impression that he switched from attacking me to going with the flow when I pointed out someone else. He's indecisive. Might be scum.

I don't really have a problem with him calling me a newbie. Misinformation runs rampant throughout today's soceity, if he is another hapless victim, thats fine. What I do have a problem is with him considering the status of 'Being a newbie' as a scumtell. In all honesty, if someone is a confirmed newbie of this game, wouldn't perhaps that give them MORE wiggle room in he scumtell department rather than less? A newbie is bound to make mistakes, so that must be taken with a grain of salt, rather than a newbie made a mistake, so he/she is mafia.

I really don't like any of Phate's reasoning or acusations(especially the hypocritical ones)

for now, a tentative:

Vote:Phate

[Flyinghawk]

No, Phate, YOU misunderstand. I never implied that I thought you said that newbies are scum. Rather, that you imply that Newbie's will make mistakes that will uncover them as mafia. I'm saying that in fact, if a Newbie makes a mistake that appears to be a scum tell, we have to take into account that he is new and that he might make that mistake even if he is protown.

Furthermore, I think its pretty clear that I am now a newbie, as i'm working on 5 months on this website.

However, this point is moot, as I didn't vote for you because of previously stated argument. Rather, because of some of your craplogic. And i AM taking into account that you are a newbie, which is why i'm saying a 'tentative' vote for you, rather than a definite vote for you.

[Flyinghawk]

ugh, i meant "not a newbie" not "now a newbie"

If anyone says "freudian slip" i'll cut 'em

[Flyinghawk]

No, Phate, YOU misunderstand. I never implied that I thought you said that newbies are scum.

O RLY?

What I do have a problem is with him considering the status of 'Being a newbie' as a scumtell.

That aside, though, I see your point. Ok, let's drop the newbie angle, then - I thought it lent evidence to my point, but obviously not. The core of what I thought was interesting was that two relatively quiet players suddenly popped back up to defend MoS. Even if that turns out to be nothing, I thought it was worth noting.

by "being a newbie" i meant "acting like a newbie" rather than "new players", but your right, i mispoke. i apologize.

[Flyinghawk]

That's true, Miztef. I hadn't thought of that.

Thats your only defense?

I think the no lynch would be a decent vote choice to buy the town more time to establish scum possibilities, its only a good vote choice if we don't already have a signifigant scum lead, which we do, and thats phate.
While I don't want to overeagerly jump into pushing for a lynch of phate, I'm going to ask for the other players in this game to say their thoughts on Phate, pretty please?

[Flyinghawk]

posting in this game has really slowed. I hope Elmo will join us soon, and give us some thoughts on the game so far. Not too much to look through, either.

[Flyinghawk]

Also, I claim serial killer.

Hrmmm? what exactly do you mean by this? There is no SK mentioned in the roles on page 1, so I can only assume you mean this as a joke? Sarcastic or something?

please explain.

[Flyinghawk]

since we already, more or less, understand the shape of the outcome of a mass claim, don't you think its rather pointless? Invariably somebody is going to lie, and we've already established that proving someone is lieing is hard with this set up. Furthermore, it could give scum better ideas about who to NK. I'm rather against a mass claim.

[Flyinghawk]

So its pretty obvious the Mafia are going to lie, but whats stopping the townies from lieing as well? Say, from a vanilla to a Trium, or visa versa? Theres no way to prove one of them did or did not do this, even if it seems illogical.

I'll participate in the massclaim if need be, but I still am not seeing the reasons why it would help the town other than "ohh, the mafia will have to lie..."

[Flyinghawk]

Ok, let's assume the scum are at least as smart as we are (anything else could be fatal, obv). An explanation of why you think a massclaim will/won't help town is not unreasonable. At the very least, you'll help to get other players to start thinking on their own. I'm not seeing a reason to be "tightlipped" about it. Face it; someone just suggested that townies should lie, not knowing about LAL. And as MoS will be happy to tell you, I'm too new to know what I'm doing.

I vote do it.

I'm do know about LAL, but I'm pretty positive that, whether its townie or mafia, its going to be really hard to flush out the liars until we already find out their roles (either through the cop, or the lynch), and either way, it wouldn't matter at that point.


Also, another point of LAL, with a small set up like this, then with all the Triums claiming triums, wouldn't they be leading the mafia right to who the Triums are?

as I stated before, I'll participate with the massclaim if it comes to that, but i'm still apprehensive.

[Flyinghawk]

Let x=the number of people who claim Triumvirate.
3<=x<=6
The number of scum in this group is x-3.

Let y=the number of people who claim Vanilla.
6<=y<=9
The number of scum in this group is y-6.

And, of course, overall, x+y=12.

Essentially, once we massclaim, we will split the town into 2 groups, within which, we will know exactly how many scum there are, at the expense of immediately letting the scum know who the Trium are.

I'm not too good with the numbers, so someone else will have to tell me if this tradeoff is good for the town or not...

---

IIRC, earlier, someone asked (or at least, seemed to wonder) "Why would the Mafia want to claim Townie rather than Trium?"

The Mafia will want to kill off the Triumvirate as quickly as possible in order to get rid of the power which the town has. However, if Mafia members have claimed Triumvirate, then, as more and more Triumvirate are killed, the higher and the higher the percentage of scum in that group grows.

If

any

Mafia claim Triumvirate, they will be forced to either leave one legit Trium alive, or expose themselves as a scum.

That being said, if

no

scum claim Triumvirate, Triums will become confirmed innocent, and it will take the Mafia a

minimum

of three nights to eliminate them, which, with a Doc with 1 in 3 success odds, a Cop with 1 in 2 success odds, and an RB with 1 in 6 success odds, should be quite difficult...

Again, is this a good tradeoff for the Mafia? Do we as a Town want to risk it?

The simple answer is "I don't know", but I'm pretty sure someone will...

The doc, cop, and RB odds, i think are scewed because they will dissapear after each night when the mafia NK the trium. Furthermore, if one of the mafia members get one of the triums powers (25% chance for N1 with a NL), these numbers are even more scewed. I think this game will play out much more complex than you just played out, and I think statistically it will be a bit more in the mafia's favor.

[Flyinghawk]

I'd do either one, as I still fail to see what's so unethical.

THe only reason I can think of is, this game's purpose is to find out who has each role (who is the mafia, who are the town, who is the serial killer, Etc etc etc) so to put that out there right away at the beginning is sort of weird, i guess.

[Flyinghawk]

^ Miztif's post is the kind of thing that needs to be happening.

Let's say we get 7 civs, 5 triums. By lynching only townies first, we first of all, have a chance of hitting a scum, even if the odds aren't amazing.

We got 1 in 7. If we just lynch people as usual, we got 3 in 12 = 1 in 4. Why is this better, again? You just halved our odds.

If we do, we eliminate the possibility of lynching a trium, Which I believe is near suicide for the town.

[Flyinghawk]

Unvote

I feel a bit better about Phate now, after such a long time.
Furthermore, we keep talking about this massclaim, but it just sounds like we are going around in circles with it. How are we finally going to decide if or when we should do the massclaim? When everyone agrees? A majority vote?