DEFCON Mafia 4.0 - СЛАВА РОССИИ МАТЕРИ

[RedCoyote]

Only 3 and a half pages... so nice. Thank you, everyone, for not blowing the thread up. Reading over it now.

[RedCoyote]

Troop options for dummies:

Fighter: Ability tracker. (Usefulness for town: 3/10)
Espionage: Cop. (Usefulness for town: 9/10)
Aircraft Carrier: Jailkeeper that stops nukes during the day as well. (Usefulness for town: 8/10)
Battleship: Doctor. (Usefulness for the town: 6/10)
Radar: Target tracker. (Usefulness for the town: 5/10)
Covert Ops Team: Jailkeeper only for Missle Silos (Usefulness for town: 4/10)
Counterintelligence: Bus Driver (Usefulness for town: 0/10 ... Only good for keeping away from scum)
Submarine: Vig. (Usefulness for the town: 7/10)
Eavesdrop: Sometimes hear scum night talk (Usefuleness for the town: 6/10)
Air Base: Kind of like an unlimited Bulletproof sans nukes. (Usefulness for the town: 8/10)
Fallout Shelter: Unlimited Bulletproof for nukes only. (Usefulness for the town: 2/10)
Fail Safe: PGO. (Usefulness for the town: 2/10)
Strategic Missle Defense: Nuke Doctor. (Usefulness for the town: 3/10)

Y'all think this is about right? I haven't read any of the discussion yet. These are my initial interpretations. The usefulness number is just my subjective calculation. If you think I'm missing someone or getting it wrong, please argue with me.

[RedCoyote]

Also, my memories of the games are hazy. I can't speak for others who were in the previous installments, but I died relatively early in all three of the previous ones. I fondly remember the original game, but have little recollection of 2/3.

[RedCoyote]

Limitless Resources: In addition to participating in the standard draft system, you will submit an automatic free troop of your choice.

In other words, whoever gets the "best" power should be given a second look.

It's worth noting that the scum do not get a night kill the first two nights (though the SK does if I am reading the rules correctly).

So, okay, Total War is effectively turning the game into a nuke fest. I could see this going both ways. If we vote against Total War, we get more time and the scum miss a NK. I'm inclined toward no Total War. It seems like this option was in one (or all) of the previous games and we always went against it. Probably for better rationale than I can think of off the top of my head.

oh hey I finally rolled town in a large
but now I have 23 slots to sort...
I'll probably just sheep people who are actually good. (Which is like, everybody. Except me. )

Gross post. All sorts of commie pings coming off of it. That GiF caught this as well makes me feel good about him.

I'm also liking Cheetory so far as he seems relatively analytical compared to the rest of the players that are posting lots.

I think the nuke doctor is way more useful than 3/10

I think the odds are small that a town player with Strategic Missle Defense is alive in late game and is effectively stopping nukes on the correct player. Doctor is already a relatively weak card depending on the circumstances, when you limit him to just defending nukes, eh, I just think it's a very situational role.

[RedCoyote]

I'm tempted to vote against Total War and totally be the spoiler here. I'm not really swayed toward either side, but I'm inclined against it just because I think making the game into Texas Justice too early lets the emotions run high and leads too more drama than necessary. I'll peek at the previous games to see what was said about Total War (if it even was an option previously).

[RedCoyote]

We definitely should be keeping in mind however the value of keeping certain abilities away from scum however. In other words, I wouldn't assume someone is automatically scum for example if it comes up that they have Counterintelligence.

Agreed. Ideally, town would posses all troops. I was just interested moreso in giving everyone a very quick summation of what they mean at a glance. You know, as a reference check throughout the game.

[RedCoyote]

Yeah, okay, Total War was in option in DEFCON 3.0. And there was much more dislike with it then. The biggest detractors of Total War in 3.0 were town, whereas one of the stronger proponents was scum.

[RedCoyote]

Some highlights:

Subject: DEFCON Mafia 3.0 - Over, American Victory!

Total War is bad.

Conventional scenario:

D1-D2, we get:
2 lynches
2 SK night kills
1 Mafia night kill

Total war, we get:
2 lynches
2 SK night kills
2 Mafia night kills
2 day kills from whomever gets the submarine, which is almost assuredly going to be the SK and someone else
Any additional town-directed nukes identify to the mafia/SK who may or may not have PRs

I'm voting for total war

i hope you guys are true americans like me and also want to arm your nuke silos.

I'm going to grab a case of beer and then figure out who to fire my nukes at later.

this is the only american way to win

since the coward french can only drink wine.

Interestingly, MoI flipped his position from the previous game. Who are the other carryovers from 3.0? Me, MoI, LLD, Spy, Fate and Equinox (Nukebringer). Am I missing anyone?

[RedCoyote]

I'm tempted to vote against Total War and totally be the spoiler here. I'm not really swayed toward either side, but I'm inclined against it just because I think making the game into Texas Justice too early lets the emotions run high and leads too more drama than necessary. I'll peek at the previous games to see what was said about Total War (if it even was an option previously).

At the very least don't do this until everyone has checked in

I agree and will do this.

[RedCoyote]

Seems like the mechanics are different there?

How so? It seems very similar to the previous installment. Almost the same number split (19-5-1 vs 18-5-1). The main difference being additional troop options. If anything, additional troop options necessarily limits the amount of town players that will have Missle Silos. Ergo, scum will have more access to nukes (relatively speaking).

How could anyone fail to catch that?

Did you?

[RedCoyote]

Another thing Total War advocates must explain: America voted against it in 3.0 and ended up winning the game. Why should we do any different?

[RedCoyote]

Magua had some great posts in 3.0.

[RedCoyote]

Subject: DEFCON Mafia 3.0 - Over, American Victory!

Defcon 4 Guide

Ignorance of the rules is no excuse. Understand things before you make your selections.

1. You get to choose between being able to nuke/defend from a nuke ("missile silo"), and having a PR ("troops").

2. If you choose "Troops", you get to list which PRs you want in the order that you want them. You don't need to include all the items; it can be as little as one. There's a draft, where you're more likely to get things high on the list than low.

If you don't end up with anything on your list, you get a missile silo.

The troop choices are:
Fighter: Rolecop
Espionage: Cop (one faction at a time)
Aircraft Carrier: Roleblocker
Battleship: Doctor
Radar: Tracker (does not track night-kills)
Counterintelligence: Framer/lawyer
Submarine: Anonymous daykill (starting D3)
Eavesdrop: Get PMed 1/6-1/3 of scum QT
Air Base: Immune to night actions
Fallout Shelter: Immune to daykills
Fail Safe: Vengeful

3. Scum get to coordinate their checks. We don't.

4. The SK gets one free pick, outside of the draft.

So, with all that in mind, some advice:

1. Do not choose missile silo. Do not do this.

If all you want is a missile silo, choose Troops and list Submarine as your only choice.

It's critical that we keep this out of scum hands. We may not be able to stop the SK from getting it, but we can make him use his free pick on it, and we can keep scum from getting this altogether.

The more people who do this, the better chance that town gets Submarine instead of scum.

You either get a Submarine, which is awesome, or you get a missile silo, which is what you wanted to begin with.

2. If you're going for troops, I'd advise against a "steal from the scum" mentality. Better to have Espionage than Counter-espionage, better to have Fighters than Air Base. I'd also advise against going for Submarine -- leave those to the people hopefully following point 1. Fighter, Aircraft Carrier, Espionage, and Battleship are all really good powers that deserve top spots on your list -- at best, you'll get one, at worst you'll make it harder for scum to get them.

3. I'd really advise putting Fail Safe (Vengeful) on your list. Unless you expect to get night-killed N1 or N2, it's categorically worse than just having a missile silo.

4. WIFOM it up in the thread. Town benefits from a certain spread to the selections, but only if scum don't know what it is.

[RedCoyote]

If this were a tryhard group, I would be voting no Total War.
That isn't the case so I'm feeling kind of meh.

I totally sympathize with this. I'm really not out to be the heavy; I don't have the personality for it. The history of 3.0 needs to be put out there though.

The temptation to nuke mastina, Something Smart and MoI though... hard to fight that.

[RedCoyote]

Spiff, I'm getting town vibes from you despite our disagreement here. Don't let me forget I said this.

[RedCoyote]

LLD: Total War... yay or nay?

[RedCoyote]

or yea rather

[RedCoyote]

3.0 vs 4.0 (Recurring players)

3.0

Total war is fun though!

And wait, how is there 2 nightkills from the SK and Mafia? Aren't both phases just skipped, so like Defcon 4 we get troop choices, and we skip straight to Defcon 1 where we can go nuclear?

Total war is fun though!

And wait, how is there 2 nightkills from the SK and Mafia? Aren't both phases just skipped, so like Defcon 4 we get troop choices, and we skip straight to Defcon 1 where we can go nuclear?

But Scum and Terrorist still gain their factional kills.

So Magua is comparing a D1/D2 death count WITHOUT Total War vs. D1/D2 WITH Total War.

Not surprisingly, Total War causes a lot more instant death.

I'd say, having looked at the statistics thrown out by Magua and ooba that I don't support Total War.

The EuroTrash only get 1 shot before Nukes start flying. And the Terrorist does get 2 but doesn't have the back-up and might cross-kill. I'd rather some actual organized scum-hunting happen before Nukes are armed.

I get home to you beatniks already denying the true power of the button?

Denying the pure bliss and majesty that is total war?

This slight will be remembered. And dealt with accordingly.

In be NUKES IS LIKE LYNCHES LETS VOTE FOR EM

Oh, no reason for Total War. Easy choice here.

Vote against Total War

Unfortunately I'm really pressed for time, guys. I second Vi's calling out dana for calling Total War "confusing", but I really can't make a detailed post right now.

FOR THE BLOOD GOD

VOTE: TOTAL WAR

4.0

Slowbie
VOTE: FOR

Vote: For Total War!

The only correct choice ...

VOTE: For Total War

VOTE: TOTAL WAR

THE SCREAMING DEATH COUNCIL HAS DECIDED

So, okay, Total War is effectively turning the game into a nuke fest. I could see this going both ways. If we vote against Total War, we get more time and the scum miss a NK. I'm inclined toward no Total War. It seems like this option was in one (or all) of the previous games and we always went against it. Probably for better rationale than I can think of off the top of my head.

Currently leaning Total War because pressure is everything and pepole do stupid things when they're afraid people like Fate will nuke them for nothing.

So two people have switched since 3.0. MoI has flipped from anti to pro. LLD went from neutral to pro. I couldn't really find a solid statement in the previous game. Food for thought. I think going back to 3.0 is very useful insomuch as, one, the town won the game, and two, the game is very similar to this one. Why not attempt to replicate it?

[RedCoyote]

Oh, I missed Reck's post.

[RedCoyote]

You aren't supposed to have trouble remembering your own reads. Buddy much, etc.

Lmao, yeah, you're right. We're definitely not going to be getting along.

[RedCoyote]

RedCoyote absolutely needs Nukes / lynched on the soon side of sooner or later. Town RC would not be feeling out the thread to see if there is any support at all for not voting Total War. 118 is basically asking “Town is it ok if do this thing?”

Cheap shot. There's absolutely no need to reserve yourself when you vote for Total War given that it requires unanimity. There's every reason to do so when you intend to be a detractor. Everyone should've been made to weigh in on the issue when it mattered (e.g. when it's still possible to pass). The argument over it is what counts, not the vote.

Firstly all Town players need to consider the scum potential upside if they are looking at a Troop. Sub is probably the most abusable by scum.

Secondly any Town player who takes Counter-Intelligence must claim it in their first post after the Draft. Failure to do so should be considered the equivalent to waving the hammer and sickle in public while shouting praise to Mother Russia.

First, not a dissenting opinion since I addressed the importance of keeping troops away from scum as a factor to consider, specifically with regard to Counterintelligence. I agree with your second point. To reiterate, ideally, the town would possess all troops.

Sub is 10/10 for Town as it keeps it out of the dirty red paws of the Communists. The strength Town has in this set-up regarding Nukes is the public nature of pressing the button. It holds YOLO Nukers accountable with rope.

If the Communists haven’t figured out how to completely make Eavesdrop useless then they aren’t going to last long anyway. Consider it a 1.5 / 10 at best for Town.

Fail Safe’s ability to Vengekill a Stealth Bomber kill makes it at least a 4/10 for Town.

The sub is important. Agreed.

Eavesdrop is more valuable given that the mod has explicitly banned encryption in night chat. Whether or not the scumteam is able to work around that within his discretion is up in the air.

Well given that the Terrorist has their normal draft result to cover for the “best power” they choose I’m wondering how you expect to this theory to work exactly …

I don't understand.

I do not TownRC is stubborn and doesn't much care about popular opinion.

You said it, not me. For what it's worth, as scum I wouldn't care about Total War, and I certainly wouldn't be willing to fight the tide.

---

I'm certainly not pinged by it though. And I would like Magna to respond to the point RC made that Magna was town and against Total War last game and clearly for it this game; that was an interesting catch which warrants explanation.

Indeed. He has yet to explain this.

I'm fine with this post, and I appreciate the Counterintelligence announcement. Though, in general, I disagree with the idea of claiming your draft across the board.

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Only person to ping me so far is Recks. Just the way they outted their reads; it seems very flimsy and my gut read is scum trying to ensure they've got their bases covered wrt early contribution. Definitely not a strong inclination, just where I'm thinking rn.

he's probably the turrist

I'd strongly doubt it. I don't get good or bad pings from Reck yet.

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So you think that in a game from over 5 years ago the only possibility of why I would change my stance is Alignment indicative?

Why must you get defensive? It's a question. The dodging is noted.

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Mastin is probably town I think
-Fire

Does it really matter though?

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Hi.

I got a pm with top secret classified information I was just wondering if it was okay to set up my own private server for further correspondence???

Only if it's in a bathroom.

---

no clue what to think about LLD atm. inclined to believe mastin's read but idk. the whole GIMME THIS USELESS THING SO I CAN BE A CODEBREAKER AND REAL TOWN HELPER seems forced and actor like and ugh.

I can ride with this.

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She apparently actually did it last time or something though

Last game, you mean? Explain.

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Thank you, everyone, for not blowing the thread up. Reading over it now.

Y'all think this is about right? I haven't read any of the discussion yet.

Lol.

108 was after reading over the troops, obviously.

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Ok read it.

Nahdia and RedCoyote need death pronto. Have I got my nukes yet.

I don't understand why everyone and their mother is scum reading RC

He is one of my like 3 solid town reads atm

It's a good thing, Spiff, as it means I'm town.

Ask Grey.

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MoI's 452 is good, though the jury is out on Zito as he hasn't made any contributions so far.

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it's really tempting to call ircher town for voting against without reading the thread

Agreed.

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Mastin needs to die regardless.

The first good Zito post.

[RedCoyote]

Vote: Against Total War

[RedCoyote]

Vote: Against Total War

Wtf is this.

No longer any need to stay in DEFCON 5.

Mastin needs to die regardless.

The first good Zito post.

Zito had much better posts earlier on but I can't tell if the one you quoted is sarcastic or not but he had much more townier posts earlier on.

Has doesn't; I just got through checking. Unless you mean prior to page 10.

[

Town

]-----Cheet--Nahdia-GiF---Grey---MoI-Nukebringer-Ceph-Spiff--PZ--Reck-Ircher--hiplop-Fate-Spy[

∙

]-LLD-Accountant-Dayne--mastina--Errant--McMenno----SS------------[

Scum

]

Toog hasn't posted yet.

[RedCoyote]

EBWOP: He doesn't

[RedCoyote]

Thank you, everyone, for not blowing the thread up. Reading over it now.

Y'all think this is about right? I haven't read any of the discussion yet.

Lol.

108 was after reading over the troops, obviously.

No that's not obvious at all:

Thank you, everyone, for not blowing the thread up.

Reading over it now.

Especially since you played previous game and the setup was posted in signup page. Meaning I assume unless you clearly state "WILL BE READING SETUP/GIVING MY THOUGHTS ABOUT IT" then you should already come in with that knowledge.

You didn't give a comment at all about the discussion you just dumped a bunch of subjective info into the thread while labeling it as "roles for dummies" to make it look like you're ~helping~.

I do this thing where I read in chronological order.

[RedCoyote]

☑ lld scum

[

Town

]-----Cheet--Nahdia-GiF---Grey---MoI-Nukebringer-Ceph-Spiff--PZ--Reck-Ircher--hiplop-Fate-Spy[

∙

]-LLD-Accountant-Dayne--mastina--Errant--McMenno----SS------------[

Scum

]

enlighten me

Not necessarily. Everyone bunched in the middle is effectively null.

[RedCoyote]

Because low hanging fruit != town.

This.

[RedCoyote]

Don't put yourself as confirmed town, Ircher. That's so silly and unnecessary. I guess it's a pet peeve. No one expects you to analyze yourself.

[RedCoyote]

and also RC/GiF are you suggesting that low hanging fruit = scum? because it sounds like you're saying I'm scum for the same reasons you're saying I'm low hanging fruit while calling being low hanging fruit not indicative of alignment. (That made more sense in my head.)

Not necessarily. I think it's common place on this site to believe that someone is "too scummy to be scum". I do not believe in that. I think your first post was objectively bad. I'm willing to deconstruct it for you; I'm certainly not willing to say that you should be called town because it's bad.

[RedCoyote]

I still have RC on the back-burner of my radar. I expected Town him to come after me based on my initial call for his head. The fact that I might be even a weak Town read for him is a little suspect given that he thinks I "dodged" the issue of why I am Pro-Total War now and wasn't 5 years ago which implies I'm scummy with something to hide.

You know when you attack me that means we're both town. You ain't figured that out yet? I still get to razz you though.

[RedCoyote]

NUKE: Mastina

I'm actually really glad you did this because this gives me a chance to remind all of you that this is expressly forbidden once we're done with the draft. There will be ZERO tolerance for fake nukes in this game once the draft is complete.

13) There is zero-tolerance for being deceptive with the moderator commands (posting Nuke: [PLAYERNAME] when you do not possess a missile silo in nuclear launch mode, for example). Violations of this rule may be punishable by modkill on the first offense at the moderator’s discretion.

This would've been a modkill in AGM's world, mod. No warning bs.

[RedCoyote]

LLD talks in all !'s like a true American.

[RedCoyote]

Ah, it's okay. I don't really want to see PZ dead anyway. It just struck me as odd as I remember that being the cardinal sin for this game.

[RedCoyote]

that is only true if you first assume him not to be a VI. I would suggest those summary posts are a very good indication he is, though

Ircher isn't a VI. Stop being elitist and mean Cephir.

When MoI tells you to check your smugness, you've got some problems, lmao

[RedCoyote]

For the record, MoI is correct. Though Ircher is a little annoying... I think Zito has the more "correct" stance on him. I don't really get anything scummy and/or anti-town off that.

[RedCoyote]

Perhaps like SAD, SS is growing on me. I'm also wondering why I ever liked Firebringer at all. Has Equinox even posted yet?

[RedCoyote]

Not really getting much off of Vax except I wonder why he asked about Total War in his opening post and never followed up on it.

[RedCoyote]

I don't know if I have any really controversial opinions thus far though (Total War vote notwithstanding). I'll say McMenno would surpass SS at this point in people that need to be lynched/nuked first. He's flying under the radar insomuch as he's not being talked about as needing rope sooner rather than later. Phony posts, following the crowd, faux-snark, etc.

[RedCoyote]

@RedCoyote

– any reason you didn’t bother to answer my questions from 767? Should I note you are “dodging” lol?

No dodging; I just don't really care. You should know I'm town by now, we'll see if your pride will let you admit to it.

Reck's vote wasn't optimal as ideally all players would've weighed in on the subject prior to any no votes, but given that no was the correct vote, I cannot call it scummy at all.

If you're actually saying the Terrorist would deliberately give up their free troop as a cover, then I think you're being overly paranoid and illogical.

Because I bucked the tide, yes, that bodes well for me as town. I'm not going to sit here and makes WIFOM arguments, but you're the one that suggested that RC voting speaking up against Total War doesn't jive with the idea of RCscum.

From hiplop to SAD on that scale would be in a neutral/null/middle territory that could effectively go either way.

[RedCoyote]

EBWOP: voting/speaking up

[RedCoyote]

LIST OF THINGS TO DO
READ THREAD
PLAY MAFIA WITH PAPA ZITO
WORSHIP PAPA ZITO?
NUKE SOME COMMIES

Nuke that^

This post dedicated to my boy Ceph.

[RedCoyote]

Alright, LLD is nearing the top of my town list at this point. I just thought that was worthy of announcement. Need to hear more from Errant, UT and Spy re: reads.

[RedCoyote]

VOTE: McMenno

why did you piggyback off of cephrir's vote instead of voting redcoyote or something_smart, which I'm sure could have a wagon built on them?

And you concluded it was a piggyback vote how?

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I very specifically put in literally EVERY troop, in an order of most to least.
Given how many troops there were, I shoulda gotten at least ONE of them, especially since I figured...well.
Yaknow.

This post is so horrible. Mastina is terribly anti-town and needs to be nuked at the soonest possible opportunity.

How the fuck is Mastina higher than RC?

It's called giving a morsel of thought to the game beyond "I don't like this person".

You have no idea what you're doing. You just claimed without any reason whatsoever. You expect us to believe you're absent-minded enough to not understand how the draft system works. Depending on the popularity of your first draft selection, you have either a good or so-so chance at getting your first pick. The second pick is a long shot. Anything after the second pick is a waste of time.

Not everyone should, but for some people, it's mandatory.

Nope.

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Can someone explain the Vax case/point me to it?

Im going to take a guess here:

Because newbies are lynch-bait. Veteran players think they know exactly when another vet is scum and think they always have them pegged. So when wagon gets started on a newbie player no one can be blamed for not knowing they were not scum because of this crappy play style.

Hence why I think SAD is scum trying to get me lynched for crappy reasoning.

It's still pretty early tho, im confident people will see through is ruse.

Newb card is :/

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You're not even voting someone.
Welcome to high priority level.

I like this post. Something about GiF suggesting that Cheetory make a "deal" with him in regards to his vote's autonomy feels sketchy. Especially this early on.

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He certainly posts like newb.

Because low hanging fruit != town.

This. I don't know if I'm going to vote Vax, but I see nothing worthy of defense thus far.

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If my post is a "lie" then we need to lynch you for lying as well.

I've been trying to fairly evaluate this statement, and it just doesn't read to me like an honest town-sided attack. It reads most logically like desperation. This is probably the first non-weak point against townVax. He's reaching and I don't get the feeling like it's an honest reach but rather him trying to fumble together some sort of attack.

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Lol
VOTE: Untrod
Sound case by Reck.

This lends support to what McMenno said earlier. This is clearly a piggyback vote, and I don't like it. Ircher is very obviously trying to do whatever he can to distract from the Vax wagon. I'd have felt much better about this vote had Ircher shown engagement with UT and/or Reck.

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UT is basically trying to act like SpyreX and he sees the funhappyjoketimes as his way to blend in but spyspy is actually making real thoughts & stuff underneath it all so UT is just wearing a shitty Party City knockoff SpyreX mask

meanwhile I'm just glad you actually feel confident about a read in a mafia game, even if it's wrong

have you considered that maybe, just maybe, I just have a deepseated desire to nuke shit and the beginning of the game was entirely bullshit from everyone and I just didn't care

but nooooooo you want to be Mr Party Pooper and vote no to nukes all day every day

This is a cop out.

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(Town do stupid stuff more oft then not simply by not paying as close attn. Scum would be less likely to make such a mistake and then go to such lengths to try to deny and cover it up)

I tend to agree with this. The line of attack about whether Vax read the VC or not is too technical and not really a good argument. I think the dayvig argument holds a lot more water though.

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McMenno and ErrantParabola are still voting for Ircher. Would be willing to bet I could get minimum one scum flip by nuking both.

I can ride with this.

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Um what? McMenno has substance in his posts? Look at that ISO and tell me McMenno has one tiny spec of substance. It is Lol-worthy that this even came out of anyone’s keyboard period but the Night and Day between surgeon-like dissection of Vax and “Herp-A-Derp McMenno’s got substance” has to trigger alarm bells people.

This is a solid point, but it needs to be filed under 'L' for Let's Cross The Bridge When We Get There.

Random notes:

SAD vs LLD is town on town, I think.

Townie vibes from SAD, Accountant, Reck, and Cheetory
Scummy vibes from Vax, Ircher, McMenno

Reck's case on UT is :goodposting:.

1685 is good GIF.

[RedCoyote]

GIF may be the hardest slot to read at this point. Though with Spy I can never tell if he's town or I just want him to be town since I always want him to be town.

Since we have time, I'm going to VOTE: McMenno. I would still say this slot is our best bet at nailing scum/terrorist, and I'd be happy to engage with anyone that is open to joining me. I think Vax is a decent wagon, however. I will not try to stand in the way of it and am very much open to supporting it.

[RedCoyote]

Reck's case was good and I wasn't townreading UT to begin with (Null leaning scum on UT).

This rings totally hollow when, as of your last reads list, you have 14 people ranked as more scummy than UT.

[RedCoyote]

Pedit: So, reads should be static and oblivious to other players' reads? My UT read is null due to lack of content to adequately judge at the time. Again, what's wrong with sheeping a case I believe to be good?

It's bad because it completely throws into question your constitution. If UT can jump from 15th most likely to be scum to 1 on the basis of Reck saying that he has been fluffing it up too much, I'm going to question that. You have no track record on UT, and further still, you've actively talked down Reck due to his Total War vote and his earlier posts you called scummy.

Changing reads is fine, but if you're going to do a complete 180, then I need to see how you got there. I don't see that here.

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This post is so horrible. Mastina is terribly anti-town and needs to be nuked at the soonest possible opportunity.

Was there ever any nonzero chance of mastin ever being a nightkill?

Everyone needs to be reminded early and often that that slot needs to go.

[RedCoyote]

I'm asking what the issue is of someone who's basically going to be perpetual nuke/lynchbait [especially as hard as mastin is] claiming their results?
Antitown?
I guess?
Scummy?
Not really at all. Honestly I will be pretty surprised if mastin flips scum.

Yeah, I deliberately classified it as anti-town rather than scummy for that reason. I also deliberately asked for a nuke rather than a lynch for that reason. There's a fair shot Mastina is town; there's a 100% shot that Mastina is hurting the town.

RC, how often do you get mislynched?

Fairly often. Of my last ten town games, I was lynched in seven of them. I know how to step on toes.

[RedCoyote]

For the record I am still on board with a RC nuke / lynch after he tells me "Oh, this is an absolutely solid point that SAD's posts don't make sense from a Town perspective but we should deal with it later" and then IMMEDIATELY calls SAD Town.

No, silly, that was unrelated to that post. Hence why I qualified those points as random notes.

Further, your SAD scumread relies utterly and completely on Vax flipping scum. Any scum flip necessitates reevaluation.

[RedCoyote]

Where have I townread [Vax] for just being a newb or being a low hanging fruit or whatever?

• [Vax's] conspiracy paranoia is mostly newbtown thing.

[RedCoyote]

That's clearly not the case. I've been calling SAD scum well before Vax replaced in.

So Vax's alignment has no bearing whatsoever on your SAD read?

[RedCoyote]

So Vax's alignment has no bearing whatsoever on your SAD read?

Not a ton, no. Why do you think it should?

Because it does for me.

---

RC, how often do you get lynched based on your tone? As town/scum in general.
Is that something that comes up a lot or no?

Well, I don't know how reliable self-meta is, but Grey once summed me up in a comical way and I've even used it once or twice when similar questions have come up:

• Subject: The Chosen One (Micro 10) - Game Over!
  

  Fair warning about RedCoyote: He appears to care about this game. This may be a RedCoyote scumtell (although I utterly hate and despise the logic that someone plays more town when they're scum, in RC's case it's kinda true).

The fact of the matter is I enjoy playing scum more and perhaps put more effort into those games as a general rule. Whereas with town games I just say whatever's on my mind whenever I'm around. But, yeah, you wouldn't be the first person to bring up my disposition.

[RedCoyote]

Where have I townread [Vax] for just being a newb or being a low hanging fruit or whatever?

• [Vax's] conspiracy paranoia is mostly newbtown thing.

Yeah I said that.
So where have I town read Vax

JUST

for being a low hanging fruit?

You asked for when you townread Vax for being a newb

or

being low hanging fruit. I provided you with an example of the former. Now you're moving the goal posts.

[RedCoyote]

Dayne Dayne, please don't tell people to fuck off when they ask perfectly reasonable questions about what is so townie about Vax's posts. Because... what is so townie about Vax's posts? If you're going to publically pitch a fit when people question you I'll shrug and nod when the nukes come for you.

If you really think he's town, sell me on why he is and why someone else is a better lynch. And why that person is Mastina.

canttellifsarcasm.jpg

[RedCoyote]

I'm also wondering why Untrod is getting so much crap for having an empty pointless ISO while hiplop is getting none .. it puzzles me ...

This is the problem with fluff posting cases in large games. There's always a lurker/fluff poster, so cue the, "What about X?" questions.

---

APPARENTLY since all the troops are in play

Obviously.

If you took even a cursory glance at any of the three previous games, you'd know this. I mean, you have 24 players and 13 troops. One is taken off the top for the Terrorist, so let's make it 12 troops. Three other troops were openly 'claimed' to my knowledge (Counterintelligence, Eavesdrop and Submarine).

They ALL have value of varying degrees, even if just to keep the other side from getting it. Since you get a Missle Silo even if you miss a troop, there's no reason not to go for one you think is valuable. You get it, cool. If not, no big deal.

Furthermore, scum/terrorist have incentives to not just settle for a nuke, ideally, since you're putting a target on your back by openly killing someone else. Even if you use your nuke by committee, so to speak, you could be stuck nuking your partner.

Anyway, it just boggles the mind how anyone couldn't come to this conclusion or think to do any sort of research on it at all.

Oh gee, I gave the town knowledge they didn't have before--all thirteen troops are in play--and claimed my list order, when everyone wants me dead. Golly, that sure is no reason whatsoever to claim, yes it is! There's surely no POSSIBLE reason to claim and give the town that info when you're a top pick for being nuked.

You can't get nuked today and you can't get nuked tomorrow. You're clearly not the leading wagon.

But thanks for giving the scumteam extra information. I'm sure it's appreciated.

If everyone took this stance, and there was a troop nobody wanted, guess what?

Anyone could've told you this had you asked. Had you thought to even glance at any of the previous games.

---

I think the most disturbing part of this is how there's nothing in there that's even a ripple

Pretty basic but Cheetory has earned a lot of town cred this game.

---

Earlier Ircher was in your scum pile so this doesn't really jive with me

Also in that post you threw shade on all of mastina, McMenno, Ircher, Vaxkiller,

While I think all of these players have a nonzero percent chance of flipping scum (except maybe mastina) I think you're casting a really broad stroke over all the universal nuke targets which seems like a really easy stance to hold

And? I don't care for Ircher or the people that are voting him.

As to your second point, you really consider McMenno and Ircher to be "universal nuke targets"? I think I'm one of, like, three people that has even batted an eye at McMenno. As for Ircher, I think he's caught more flak, but nothing major. I don't even think Vax is really a nuke target because I think people are more anxious to see him eat rope than wait to nuke him.

Also RC what do you think of S_S?

Still on the scum side. Would love to see him eat it.

Yeah, I deliberately classified it as anti-town rather than scummy for that reason. I also deliberately asked for a nuke rather than a lynch for that reason. There's a fair shot Mastina is town; there's a 100% shot that Mastina is hurting the town.

yuck

If you can explain to me how Mastina is helping the town, I'll concede the point. Nukes are to be used like vig shots as far as I'm concerned.

---

I think people like saying this too much and it's basically impossible to determine, unless you're saying you just think they're both town independent of the argument in which case use different words

They're both town in spite of their aggression toward one another.

It's relevant and easy to understand, so of course you'd be against it.

---

wanted to address this in particular, you see he votes me immediately after cephrir does without any commentary then later tries to play it off as an rvs-y vote instead of you know... "yeah I was scumreading you and saw cephrir's vote as an opportunity to start a wagon on you"

and could you please be consistent? your posts sound like they're made by different players

oh and there's a difference between "scummy" (whatever that means) and "scum"

There was commentary, actually (see: 1173, 1219). Further, I challenged anyone to engage me on the vote (which no player has thus far been willing to do). So calling it "rvs-y" or "opportunistic" is a flatout lie. I also find humor in the fact that me putting you at L-11 is "opportunistic". Talk about disconnected from reality.

Since Cephrir and I are mortal enemies this game, it only speaks to how great of a lynch you are that we can both agree on your scumminess.

I don't understand your last sentence. I use scummy as an adjective to describe people that are voting/saying/promoting/attacking in such a way that leads me to believe they are scum.

---

i disagree the post you quoted was mm's best post so far

it has actual content which is a first

It's garbage if you scratch beyond the surface of it.

---

I strongly, strongly dislike SS's 1930. It reads way too much like, "I can't be scum for lurking... no one has asked me to speak". Very weak, defensive and checked out language.

---

can we lynch this or is our collective nuke boner too powerful

I'd be down with lynching, but I genuinely don't think Vax is a bad lynch.

---

vaxkiller: I'm not saying ss is scum but he's pretty scummy
ss: I'm not saying ss is scum but he's pretty scummy

oh okay was a little worried for a sec there

This is actually a solid post. Add that to the fact that I think D1 is large enough and that I don't think Vax is getting better here (his Mastina complaints in 1986 read as particularly tone deaf given his current situation) mean that I can join the wagon now.

UNVOTE: McMenno; VOTE: Vaxkiller

[RedCoyote]

[

Town

]---Cheet---Nahdia-LLD----Accountant-MoI-Spiff-Grey--SAD--PZ--Reck-Ceph--Fate-hiplop-Spy-Mastina[

∙

]-GIF-Nukebringer--Ircher---UT-Errant-McMenno----Vax-SS----------[

Scum

]

[RedCoyote]

I was really hoping people would stop sheeping me but now I think I should just fucking claim so you guys can stop wasting time.

Claiming soon would be appropriate as Mastina has mentioned voting you.

[RedCoyote]

There was commentary, actually (see: 1173, 1219). Further, I challenged anyone to engage me on the vote (which no player has thus far been willing to do). So calling it "rvs-y" or "opportunistic" is a flatout lie. I also find humor in the fact that me putting you at L-11 is "opportunistic". Talk about disconnected from reality.

Since Cephrir and I are mortal enemies this game, it only speaks to how great of a lynch you are that we can both agree on your scumminess.

I don't understand your last sentence. I use scummy as an adjective to describe people that are voting/saying/promoting/attacking in such a way that leads me to believe they are scum.

I thought it was pretty clear from context that I was referring to ircher's vote there

Oh, my mistake. That makes a lot more sense now. I'll have to reevaluate that post and my read of you then.

[RedCoyote]

UNVOTE: Vaxkiller for now as I want to hear from LLD.

[RedCoyote]

Vax, is that the exact syntax of the messages you received? If not, please give it to us exactly.

---

UNVOTE: Vaxkiller for now as I want to hear from LLD.

Regarding?

Vax's claim.

[RedCoyote]

I was doing it when Eavesdrop was a code breaking role.

Then I learned cryptography was banned.

Fair enough. I remember this post.

Going to keep my vote off for now, but my initial impressions are that those messages don't look genuine. That said, Eavesdrop doesn't strike me as a high scum priority as surely a system could be arranged to mitigate any damage from drops and/or drop fakes. In fact, I think most players in this game, if they drew scum, might even feel up to the challenge of trying to make town-acquired Eavesdrop work in their favor.

---

Anyway, it just boggles the mind how anyone couldn't come to this conclusion or think to do any sort of research on it at all.

what a bizarre aggressive assertion.

Save us the white knight act, please.

I extended an olive branch a couple of times, got nothing but snark in return. So, yeah, it's going to be like that.

[RedCoyote]

i feel like rc is painting me as out to get him so i seem like a fringe element :/

You're in good company, don't worry. As mentioned before, generally the only times when coming after me are 'fringe' are in games when I draw scum.

you just listed me outside the scum section of your read list and now i'm white knighting?

i don't even know what olive branch you're talking about but that makes it sound like i'm just such a jerk because i won't retract my scumread. i'm just such a meanie pants for having an opinion.

Just because I think you're more likely to be town doesn't mean I don't think you aren't helping. I currently have you as a town read though, yes.

[RedCoyote]

Ugh all the negatives in that sentence. Let me try again:

I think you're more likely to be town, but you can still be hurting the town.

[RedCoyote]

I just made a huge post about this and erased it because I realized that Occam's Razor says that Vax has Eavesdrop, is town, and the scum are just screwing with the drops.

Unless we get any counters, I don't think we should be lynching Vax.

[RedCoyote]

Anyway I still support a Vaxkiller lynch.

Him being eavesdropper changed very little. And so does his list. Scum would be contesting town roles anyway.

And Vax's posts, even of true, indicate scum are hiding their posts and self aware. so even in the slim possibility he is town we aren't losing much.

What do you say to the idea that scum would want town to have Eavesdropper? As scum, I would prioritize the troops much differently.

Further, scum had no idea that Toog/Vax would be in a situation to claim D1.

[RedCoyote]

I mean you can say "occam's razor says this person is town" to everyone

The hurdle I can't get around is why scum would want to select it when literally every other troop is more valuable for them to have. To top it off, if town has it, scum can screw with them.

[RedCoyote]

If we let this go what's stopping us from letting anyone who roleclaims go

There's 13 roles obv scum got some...

No, SAD. No. That's bullshit. Put on your critical thinking cap. Of course they got some, but why would they prioritize Eavesdrop? You need to answer that. Not for me, but for yourself. Otherwise you can't keep voting Vax in good conscience.

[RedCoyote]

What do you say to the idea that scum prioritized Eavesdropper because they knew town would think they wouldn't and so get one of their buddies a free dodge from a lynch.

Is the poisoned wine in front of me, or you...

But anyway regardless, Vax was likely to be one of the people to be run up Day1 from pregame discussion. Still doesn't change the fact scum can prioritize Eavesdropper (esp considering there's 5 of them). Didn't even LLD say she went for Eavesdropper as scum last DEFCON game?

My answer to "why would scum go for X role":

"To seem town"

And that's fine, but, as you recognize, now we're at WIFOM arguments. Are the scum more concerned with choosing troops to play WIFOM games or are the more concerned with utility (a la Submarine, Espionage, Counterintelligence, Fighter, etc)

I can't speak to LLD or LLD's motivations from 3.0.

---

VOTE: Something_Smart

This is now the clearly superior lynch unless someone can sell me on the scum motivation beyond WIFOM.

[RedCoyote]

SAD/Spiff, is Missle Silo more valuable to scum than Eavesdrop?

[RedCoyote]

It's perfectly plausible that Vax is scum with that role and his buddies are making nonsense posts so his claim separates him from being scum

Of course it's plausible. For that though, you have to accept that Eavesdrop was a valid troop pick that the scum team was actively trying to get. With their limited numbers (compared to the town). With the knowledge that they couldn't screw with whichever town player would get it. With the knowledge that they're effectively giving up a Missle Silo.

[RedCoyote]

Missle Silo is markedly more valuable to scum than Eavesdrop.

You're fooling yourself if you think Vax is scum.

[RedCoyote]

Has no one considered Vax fakeclaiming to draw out a disruptive role to scum?

Proceed with rope

Think before you speak.

[RedCoyote]

You want him to be, but you know he isn't.

[RedCoyote]

RC idk why you turned 180 just because of his role claim.

You never even addressed the point that he didn't even put eavesdropper first, he put it second. So it kinda nullifies your point about scum not prioritizing eavesdropper, because his main priority was contesting cop. He just went for something that he thought he'd have a shot at second.

I've explained why over a series of posts.

Now, if he put something like Submarine second, I'd take your point. That was going in the first round and putting it second would've been pointless. No one showed particular interest toward Eavesdrop (except for LLD who recanted), so putting it second is still effectively saying that, "I would rather have Eavesdrop than Missle Silo". So you're wanting me to believe that:

1) That Eavesdrop was more valuable to Vax and the scum team than a Missle Silo (between 1 and 3 potential extra kills).
2) That scum didn't want the town to have Eavesdrop (despite the fact that it can and has been used by scum teams in previous games to screw with the town).
3) The scum team decided that Vax of all their teammates would be the best player to try for Eavesdrop.
4) Vax and friends are now orchestrating these drops.

That's a lot of assumptions to make, especially given that I think that:

1) The Missle Silo is objectively more valuable to the scum team than Eavesdrop.
2) The scum likely

would've

wanted a town player to have Eavesdrop. For the chaos factor if nothing else (e.g. "I think X said that!" "No way!" "Guys, it's obviously fake..." "No, Y would be more likely to say it!" etc).
3) I don't think the scum team would've wanted Vax to be the Espionage/Eavesdrop manipulator.
4) These are starting to seem valid, random and mostly useless like I would expect them to when coming from town.

[RedCoyote]

What other options? S_S? No thanks

I can roll with UT, but why aren't you interested in SS?

[RedCoyote]

Now personally if Vax is not Commie and just terrible I think I want RC to die ASAP.

Yes, we know, MoI. You needn't keep reminding us. We go through this charade every game we play together. You always have wanted to lynch me, and you always will want to lynch me. My alignment doesn't matter because you can never accept that someone views the game differently than you do. It's duly noted, so spare us your false dilemmas.

He’s taking Vax’s statements at face value. Which Commie scum tend to inadvertently do when they know they aren’t dealing with a partner. Same unsurprisingly goes for SAD in 2077.

Whether or not he drafted Eavesdrop first or second means precisely dick unless you're disputing the fact that he has it. As explained several times, my contention is that he wouldn't have drafted it at all. Further, I don't think he'd have the intuition to concoct a fake list strictly for WIFOM purposes as you're suggesting.

So in a long piece (and condescending) piece about how mastin was bad for not understanding the past and the set-up you posted incorrect information about the set-up (specifically that the Terrorist automatically takes one troop out of play). Do I have that correct?

It's irrelevant as the fact remains that no thoughtful person would've assumed that they'd be guaranteed to receive a troop simply by filling a draft list up with all of them. I'm surprised you dispute that as that was one of the few things we seemed to agree on (see: 1692).

[RedCoyote]

Also, I love the subtle character assassination swipes at me when you were previously calling Mastina either scum or a stupid drunk for that plan.

[RedCoyote]

It is. I'd rather not have to go through the history once again as no one cares and we just did it in Poker Mafia, so just take my word for it.

[RedCoyote]

A pet peeve of mine is when someone claims without any provocation or reason for doing so. Mastina knows better than that, and thus the extra scorn is deserved. Further, Mastina has entered into this game deliberately trying to "troll" it which is unacceptable not worth anyone's time or energy trying to assess (see: 119, 273, 275 and 277). I don't particularly care of Mastina is town or not. I just want nukes.

And I'm actively voting and pushing for an SS wagon at the moment. I'm currently trying very hard to dissuade those on Vax wagon, yourself included, Spiff.

[RedCoyote]

Okay whatever

here:

mastina
Cheetory6
xRECKONERx
GreyICE
Nahdia
Fate
lrcher
MagnaofIllusion

I'm basically down with any wagon that is not one of the people above.

Wha...

Where's the love, SAD? It's Thanksgiving. I wouldn't lynch you.

[RedCoyote]

Not much to comment on. The UT and Mastina wagons undercut one another (keep this in mind for later as UT was long pushed as an alternative that only collapsed when it became relevant ... and the same goes for Vax, naturally, though I think the claim was a valid variable), so all roads seem to lead back to SS. If anyone is online and wants to talk for the next 5-10 minutes, I'll be here. Otherwise I'm V/LA for the next couple of days.

[RedCoyote]

Votes I want to see going forward: hiplop, Errant, Grey and Reck.

[RedCoyote]

Right but S_S is town.

how can you possibly look at their first post and say "yep, that's town"

It's not the first post, its the way he reacted to pressure.

That first post was terrible on every level. It has all the hallmarks of a scum intro. It was awkward, it was trying to not be awkward it was forced and ugly and bleh.

But... the pressure put on him has caused him to lash out in a manner that feels town to me.

I don't agree with this. Two points:

1) How he approached the Vax wagon with fencesitting (see: 1988 and 1990)
2) How he brought up the defensive/defeated "I'm not talking because no one is asking me questions" excuse (see: 1930)

[RedCoyote]

keep this in mind for later as UT was long pushed as an alternative that only collapsed when it became relevant

Is this bothering you?

Right now? No, not particularly, but I'm not about to throw another rock in the pond, so to speak, after laying my body down on the Vax train. That said, it's worth keeping in mind moving forward. I haven't really read over the last 4-5 pages too closely, but I also never thought UT would be successful. For better or for worse, he holds enough clout with enough players that it just wouldn't happen over him fluffing it up. Does that make sense?

[RedCoyote]

EBWOP:

the UT wagon

would be successful

[RedCoyote]

[Town]---Vax-Cheet----Nahdia-Accountant-GIF--MoI--Grey-PZ--SAD---Ceph-Spiff-Nukebringer-Spy-Reck-Mastina-hiplop-[·]-LLD-Fate-McMenno-Ircher---UT-Errant-----SS-----------[Scum]

Something closer to this now. I'm taking off. Happy Thanksgiving!

[RedCoyote]

Listen if Reck is willing to put his friendship on the line and risk mislynching a friend that he enjoys mafia with I'm p sure that there's a very good chance he's right.

This, coupled with the fact UT only started doing something when he received heat, makes him good lynch

Wow! What a dumb argument. The level of reach here is off the charts.

[RedCoyote]

Reck not voting at this moment is pretty absurd. What is his excuse for that?

[RedCoyote]

ISO/metadived S_S. Have a big 'ol wall of thoughts on him. Which basically amounts to:
i) His meta is pretty varied and the only consistent thing I could really hold was that his scumgames are lessy wordy than his towngames. Might be something said about awkward tone being a factor in some of his scumgames, but his last Large as scum was played pretty straight. I didn't see a game where S_S was pressured right out the gate nonstop.

ii) S_S has literally been OMGUSing everyone who's seriously pushed him and his reads have also been pretty static.

iii) His later posts in the game are pretty bad. Not particularly confident if it's exhausted-town-bad or scum-bad though.

iv) His jump off of Vaxkiller onto UT happens at a time that kind of feels less likely to come from scum.

I don't really feel strongly either way [which is kind of depressing when I just threw a lot of effort at this q.q].

Hoping to condense my thoughts on the rest of the gamestate tomorrow into something palatable and then I'm probably voting anything null or lower that can hit critical mass.

Thanks for that. I think we're at the shit-or-get-off-the-pot stage though. I appreciate not wanting to vote someone you think is town, but there's only so much tortured indecision you can afford at 110 pages.

[RedCoyote]

UNVOTE:

And just what is this?

[RedCoyote]

I can't get over 2569 though. lmao.

"Reck put his social life on the line for us! UT is so scum that he'd unfriend Reck!"

That is so laughably bad, goodness gracious.

[RedCoyote]

and then I'm probably voting anything null or lower that can hit critical mass.

:V

You're here now though. Why the arbitrary need for more time to think on it? Let's get real.

I was hoping to come back to this thread and see someone dead so we can move forward.

[RedCoyote]

I don't like this claim at all, but we have to move forward.

UNVOTE: Something_Smart; VOTE: Untrod Tripod

UT has an okay shot at flipping scum, but it's dwindled in my mind in light of some of the more outlandish attacks against him (namely, SAD's). It also speaks to me that Reck has since backed away from this wagon, indicating that he's having second thoughts.

The main problem is I'm not confident enough in SSscum that I'd be willing to chance it.

[RedCoyote]

UNVOTE: Untrod Tripod; VOTE: mastina

[RedCoyote]

SAD and Nukebringer are both solid choices based on the flips. I think SAD put himself out moreso than anyone else to defend SS (though if someone disputes this, feel free to argue with me). He was pushing Vax extremely hard until that wagon collapsed, and immediately thereafter he started after UT with what I found to be very weak, very desperate rationale. As was said at the end of yesterday, UT deserves a lot of circumstantial town credit. Of course, there's also the fact that SAD essentially begged any counters to SS to remain quiet. Whether or not that was reasonable is necessarily called into question with SS' flip, for better or for worse.

VOTE: Ser Arthur Dayne

I've got to drive out to the Louisiana border this afternoon, but I'll check back in either later tonight or tomorrow. Fate seems like a rather 'safe' kill for the Terrorist as he's certainly one of the more trigger happy players. I'll look over his posts to see if I can gleem anything, but good job on GIF for claiming as I think that was the proper move.

[RedCoyote]

Hmm ok. I'm targeting RedCoyote.

You going to recall then?

[RedCoyote]

No sense in reading if I'm dead in 24 hours. I will say that Errant is possibly a bad lynch based on information I have. Ircher and Nukebringer are where I'd be interested in looking for scum.

[RedCoyote]

I'm a rebel. You can't control me, man.

[RedCoyote]

<3

[RedCoyote]

Oh, damn, Errant already claimed. There goes my ace-in-the-hole.

[RedCoyote]

[RedCoyote]

VOTE: Ircher

posterity etc

[RedCoyote]

I forgot to say gg all because I stopped following the game. I don't mean to bump this up, but I also don't want the thread to die before I said gg. Thank you so much for running this, Andrius! I so much love the theme. gj scumteam, too!