Difficult question to answer.
To fully understand, first you must understand that there is ALWAYS two sides to the mastina in a mafia game:
The mastina you see, and the mastina she stops you from seeing. More than ANY other player, I change, I doubt, my reads.
You call bullshit! Yeah, I get that a lot.
Because you call bullshit off of the mastina you see.
Because that's the mastina I let you see.
I never let people in on the real mastina. The mastina within has doubts. Like, the mastina within screams doubt at LLD being scum. The mastina within holds paranoia of players like Cephrir and Nukebringer. The mastina within has even thought that Cheetory's doing nothing but basically white knighting could maybe be a mask for scum. Fuck! The mastina within has even dealt with the idea that maybe SAD could be scum.
The thing is, though, if I let the mastina within out, if I let the mastina within dominate me full-time.
I'd have no reads at all. Any time. I'd post something, then immediately take it back. I'd push an idea, then go, "wait, no, maybe I was wrong". Because my brain is
hardwired
to doubt. My brain is hardwired to be afraid. My brain is hardwired to experience fear of being wrong. My brain is hardwired to always think, "what if?". What if LLD actually is town? Originally, "What if UT is actually town?" And now, "What if I was originally right and UT was scum?" What if S_S actually was scum? What if Vaxkiller was actually scum? What if GreyICE was actually scum?
It's overwhelming. And it's useless. So, I...pick and choose. I tune out the smaller things. I deliberately shut them off. I ignore them. I ignore the smaller warning signs, and try to focus on the larger picture. I try to feel what the probabilities are. I would never get anywhere by feeling possibilities, because I feel EVERY possibility. Every damn day. Every moment I consider the game--and I ponder the game even when I'm away from a computer, crunching numbers and calculating--I have those scenarios in me. So I try to get the ones I think are strongest. I let what amounts to basically instinct guide me to what things are the strongest.
And
those
are what I present to people.
And inherent in those, is a bias. Because I am guessing at probabilities, I am deliberately ignoring evidence that goes against that probability. So I am intentionally tuning out potential information that clashes with a read.
In that regard...because of that fact.
When I present my reads, the mastina you see.
Looks to change only rarely. And slowly. And bitterly, even.
And by that appearance.
Yes, I am stubborn.
At a getogether, someone I know gave a quote which I felt IMMENSELY appropriate to my personality: "I took a calculated risk...but I'm really bad at math." 
