DEFCON Mafia 4.0 - СЛАВА РОССИИ МАТЕРИ

[Andrius]

Votecount

Ser Arthur Dayne [10] - MagnaofIllusion, RedCoyote, Vaxkiller, hiplop, GuyInFreezer, Lady Lambdadelta, xRECKONERx, Cephrir, Nahdia, Ircher
Nukebringer [3] - Cheetory6, Spiffeh, Untrod Tripod
RedCoyote [1] - mastina


Not Voting [8] - Everyone else

With 22 alive it takes 12 to lynch.

It is now DEFCON 2. Day 2 will last until 12/14/2016 at 10:00 hours PST.
[COUNTDOWN GOES HERE.]

[Cheetory6]

TBH.
And I risk being a jerk by saying this.
But trying to convince mastina of something is probably futile.
Like.
In general, I think if she is town here, she's only going to re-evaluate with flips or claims. People's opinions don't really play into it I don't think.
If she's scum well, I don't think she's going to budge her reads in a meaningful way that doesn't play into an agenda.

[Untrod Tripod]

Martina is like a nexus through which everything in the game is the opposite

This is useful I think!

[Papa Zito]

hurray I'm confirmed town

[Cheetory6]

Lol.

[mastina]

Like, you would think you might be like "oh well maybe my reads aren't perfect" after you made a misstep.

You didn't read the wall I made yesterday on the subject.

Part of me constantly and consistently reassessing the reads and throwing out the little stuff and focusing on the probabilities is related to this. In that when I am wrong. It's not really me having been wrong. I had thoughts of Something_smart being scum. I cast them out. I discarded them. I made the call that they were incorrect. Yet I had them all the same.

In EVERY game I play, I am both right on EVERY player...
...And WRONG on every player.
Because at some point in the game, I will have cast each player as both alignments.

So no flip surprises me.

None.

Absolutely none. (LEAST of all, someone who was nulltown! Something_smart was literally JUST above null on my list.)

And all my reads are made independently of one another.
So while I may make interactions to strengthen my reads, I do not rely on them in the least. My reads are all formed by themselves. So when someone flips against what I thought, it does absolutely NOTHING to alter my reads whatsoever. Because...well, no shit. My reads were formed independently of one another, so my other reads still stand, unless I have damn good reason to think otherwise.

I have damn good reason to think otherwise on some of my reads. For instance, the change in UT, with him having skyrocketed from second-strongest scumread (the point he was lowest at) to one of my never-touching-ever townreads. That's new information painting a new read. There is no such information to cause a change in SAD. Quite the contrary, all the new information has done is

strengthened

my SAD read because nothing SAD has done makes me think he's a Something_smart scumbuddy; everything SAD has done makes me think that he's town.

[Untrod Tripod]

hurray I'm confirmed town

Congraturation

[mastina]

Her recent answer does not satisfy me

Well too bad.

SAD at this point is people's assumed lynch.
I am not getting nightkilled.

I will live to see D3.

I have a nuke.

I have stated many times my intent to nuke LLD.

Unless one of these changes, there is NOTHING I gain by elaborating on LLD today.
When I can just speak with my actions (much louder than words) tomorrow.

[Cheetory6]

You didn't read the wall I made yesterday on the subject.

I did.
I think you process information a lot differently than literally everyone else if this isn't just scum bullshit.
And I guess to some extent it just bewilders me when people hold onto their own ego of their mindset of processing the game when they get something wrong.
When I fuck up hard, I re-evaluate hard and take input.
I don't think I ever see you do that.

[Nukebringer]

I'm starting to think mastina is town, regardless of Ser Arthur Dayne's alignment.

[mastina]

I don't think I ever see you do that.

You say you read the post and yet you still say this.

If you actually read what I was saying then there's your answer.

The reason you don't see me reevaluate is because the reevaluation is a CONSTANT process going on in my head.
Literally every split fucking second I am focusing on the game I revisit thoughts.
On my head right now are the possibilities of GiF as town and SAD as scum, for instance, but fuck no I'm not going to actually SAY those things because they're things that I am focusing on which I will only share if my opinion actually

does

change. It's a complete and utter waste of time otherwise.

I still think SAD is town.
I still think GiF is scum.

I am investigating (mostly mentally but not entirely) the possibilities to the opposite, but if I finish doing that and still conclude SAD is town and GiF is scum...then me saying I am looking into the possibility of SAD as scum and GiF as town is just a waste of time, effort, and space, which will mislead people into thinking my ultimate reads are weaker than they really are. (Because sure, in the moment I am reconsidering SAD as town and GiF as scum, my reads are weaker...but then if the reads are reaffirmed, then they are just as strong if not stronger than before, and yet people have little to no indication of this and will erroneously point to my doubt as "proof" that my read was weaker than what I intended it to be. Especially scum working to discredit me after I die.)

[Cheetory6]

If everyone in the game was telling me my strongest townread was scum.
I pushed someone as scum.
And that person flipped town.
Or
if I called someone town and that person flipped scum.
I would then feel a lot of doubt for a read that everyone else was also feeling was wrong.
I'm not so arrogant to assume the way that I process things is correct. Sometimes I get shit wrong.
You can act like the above process isn't arrogant, but it is.
The way you process reads and process the game is arrogant in its own way, even if you are constantly at odds with your own reads in your head, you're not at odds with your reads as a result of anything anyone else is saying, it's only the thoughts you alone are having regarding them.

[GreyICE]

I get the sense as I depart my computer that mastin's sudden flurry of activity is more or less motivated to derail the righteous SAD lynch.

You know I think you were on SS yesterday. And you're 100% town here. And I'd be proud to say I'm sheeping you.

That's not why I'm voting SAD though.

Listen if Reck is willing to put his friendship on the line and risk mislynching a friend that he enjoys mafia with I'm p sure that there's a very good chance he's right.

This, coupled with the fact UT only started doing something when he received heat, makes him good lynch

I can't remember seeing the buck passed harder on a lynch then it was with this post. Even Reckoner thought this was bizarre.

[GreyICE]

Ah yes and the important part.

VOTE: SAD

[McMenno]

VOTE: SAD

[McMenno]

TIME FOR NUKES

[Cheetory6]

Zzzz.

[mastina]

Fun exercise time:
Dual iso GiF and Something_smart.
DON'T try and cheat by using control-F. Manually read every post the two make especially about each other.
It'll take a little bit of time, I'll admit.

But take careful note of their interactions with one another throughout the whole game.

Especially in reference to the leaked messages we have available.

It really looks like a preplanned bussing routine. GiF didn't suddenly change tune after Something_smart's claim.
GiF's response after the claim? Pretending he'll nuke S_S D3, and continuing a stream of identical posting.

Also, in scummy reversal times:
GiF knew that Something_smart was scum D1. He had been pressing Something_smart as being scum on D1.
During that time, he said that SAD was town.
Literally strewn across GiF's entire iso (go fucking search for yourself if you don't believe me) is, "SAD is town. S_S isn't. Let's lynch S_S."

Yet today, for some INEXPLICABLE reason, with no given justification, he has taken a HARD 180 into "SAD is S_S's scumbuddy".
Why the change?

[Spiffeh]

Zzzz.

[Untrod Tripod]

aw man we got to lynch before my nuke contest was over

who will win???

~mysteries~

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Well that was extremely disrespectful.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

I just got home too.

[Cheetory6]

U scum?

[Spiffeh]

Please flip scum

tia

[GuyInFreezer]

gif has been town the whole game and i don't understand your vendetta with him.

Vendetta?

Now tell me.
In the GiF-mastina pair: which person is calling the other a piece of shit?

I don't hold a vendetta against GiF. I certainly don't think he holds one against me, either, which is one of the reasons why I think he's scum.
And I haven't held this opinion the whole game. GiF started as a townread.
But then his posting got worse and worse: more lurking. More apathy. More, lack of anything tangible. He was basically skirting by on absolutely nothing. And then, someone--I forget who--made points against GiF. I didn't acknowledge them at the time (so I'd have to manually search the thread for them and fuck that, too much effort), but while I didn't want to agree, while I didn't

want

to let go of the townread, the points resonated with what I was seeing.

Then you get to his attitude this game, and it just reeks of scum coasting. Plus, last I knew, GiF actually holds me in respect as a player, in about the same way you do: if he were town, the expectation I'd hold of him would be that he'd think I was acting weird. He'd be trying to figure out if I was scum just posting blatantly as scum because I didn't know what to do...or if I was town acting batshit insane because of some sort of weird plan I had. You know...basically, exactly what YOU did. What you did, I expected of GiF, because he actually has the knowledge and experience of me to know that when I play in these really odd, strange ways, pulling crazy stunts...that I've always got a plan.

FURTHERMORE, adding to this is the talk we have in the mafia PT. The codes being used, and the style of posting, when serious, are exactly the type I can see GiF devising. Now, mind you. He's not the only player who could have come up with these. RC is a secondary candidate for exactly that. I could probably compile off of their psychological profiles a full list, but just from the game thread alone you can already know that LLD would be in their because she TOLD us she can and has done it before. But GiF remains a suspect.

Then, there's the whole way he and Something_smart handled the claim and counterclaim. Something_smart put zero effort into defending himself. He put zero effort into convincing us he was the cop. He didn't bother to defend himself even remotely. He did nothing. He was deliberately preparing to die. No attempt at fighting back, other than a halfhearted vote on GiF post-counterclaim.

And GiF's end is no better. GuyInFreezer was not acting like a cop and he did nothing to push the wagon through on S_s without a claim. This wasn't exactly impossible, either--Something_smart had like four or five votes even post-claim, with his wagon

resurging

. It was growing. BY ITSELF. Without a counterclaim. The counterclaim wasn't needed. All he'd need to do is to press forward and put even remotely some effort into trying to sway people, and he could have lynched Something_smart without the counterclaim.

Then, he claims to have investigated Fate, the nightkill. That delays him giving hard results. That means there is no player we can clear of being mafia today. That means that we have less information to work with and the PoE pool remains just as large as it was before. Plus, some of the leaked chat suggests to me, potentially off of the timestamps, that Something_smart's cop claim was pre-planned, and also that GiF may have been weighing on NOT counterclaiming Something_smart.

This is no vendetta.
This is just pure, simple scumhunting.

GiF is scum.

He is also, however, regrettably above reproach, at least for the time being.

So you call me smart, you call me stupid, you call me a mafia, and you call me a SK.
Ooooook.