DEFCON Mafia 4.0 - СЛАВА РОССИИ МАТЕРИ

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Oh cool rules say I can still talk till thread lock.

Someone revenge me by a MoI nuke tia.

And let me just copy and paste my notepad stuff.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

U scum?

Nope, sorry buddy.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

I think these are the 4 remaining scum:

One of [RC/MoI] [50/50% chance]
Nukebringer (or mcmenno) [70/30% chance]
Fate
Accountant

I didn't really focus on SK-hunting in my reread, but I still think it's prob Spyrex. If not then prob Zito.

ANYWAY I think it's easier to do who is most likely NOT MAFIA:
Cheetory
UT
GIF
Reck
LLD
Grey
Nahdia
Ircher
Zito
Vaxkiller

Probably NOT MAFIA:
Cephrir
Mastin
Spiffeh
Spyrex

As you can tell, that leaves the uselessness of:
hiplop
EP
mcmenno
Fate

and that leaves:

RC
MoI
Nukebringer
Accountant

Now I don't think both RC and MoI are scum mainly because Something Special left them both in the ~kinda scummy~ block. So ehhh.

Accountant is probably the one who took the most nosedive after the flip. Looking back, he had really weird pushes like Mastina that really tried to derail from Something Special. Also some of his interaction with SS was super sketchy af.

Fate is by far the most scummiest of the useless block. Followed by mcmenno. The other two useless actually lean on the town side. So it's something like Fate>>mcmenno>>>>EP>>hiplop in terms of scumminess.

Nukebringer is kinda in this weird spot of way too scummy to be scum, but like his pushes WERE super weird. So he needs to be gone.

As for SK, as I said I didn't really go into too much SK hunting. There are a few people that peg me as definitely not being SK. But mainly the people who tried to coast as much as they can while appearing like they're friendly, made little enemies, etc. Spyrex and Zito fit that bill.

[Andrius]

Votecount

Ser Arthur Dayne [12] - MagnaofIllusion, RedCoyote, Vaxkiller, hiplop, GuyInFreezer, Lady Lambdadelta, xRECKONERx, Cephrir, Nahdia, Ircher, GreyICE, McMenno

Nukebringer [3] - Cheetory6, Spiffeh, Untrod Tripod
RedCoyote [1] - mastina


Not Voting [6] - Everyone else

With 22 alive it takes 12 to lynch.

It is now DEFCON 2. Day 2 will last until 12/14/2016 at 10:00 hours PST.
[COUNTDOWN GOES HERE.]

[Cheetory6]

I hate that postlynch is when someone's alignment is most obvious.
:/

[Andrius]

[Day Two, DEFCON 2]

"Admiral Andrius, dire news."
"Spit it out already, we have Russians approaching our territor-"
"Ser Arthur Dayne has gone missing."
"Bullshit. He checked in to the Task Force Meeting, I saw him come online myse-"
"Admiral, sir,"
"WHERE DID HE GO? I SAW HIM ON HERE NOT FIVE MINUTES AGO."
"It, ahem, appears that other task force members deemed him to be in collaboration with the Spetsnaz operator we arrested yesterday. So they called his location in and the facility was just raided by the SEALS."
"...inform the president. The seventh fleet will stand ready on his orders to engage the Russian convoy."
"Yes sir."
"Call up the department head, I will not stand to have my staff imprisoned like this."

Ser Arthur Dayne came to in a dark, dank room. He could feel the bag around his head and the manacles that held him down on the table.

"Alright. Let's begin. Who are the other Russian operatives in the task force?"

He swallowed. "My name is General Arthur Dayne, American citizen and commander of the Missile Silo at Hope's End. I demand to speak with Admiral Andrius or the President himself."

"Bring the water." a voice said.

Ser Arthur Dayne pictured his family on picnic as he awaited their return...

Ser Arthur Dayne, American (Missile Silo), was Black-bagged D2.

It is now Night Two. Night Two will last for 48 hours, during which all players with a Night Action may take action.
Night One will end at 16:00 PST on 12/02/2016.

That being said, I will allow for ACCELERATED NIGHT if I receive assent from all living players.

All players deploying a Missile Silo may select their silo stance options for the following Day Phase. Please note that the default stance is NUCLEAR LAUNCH.

[Andrius]

[BEGIN TRANSMISSION]

This is a less-than-24-hour reminder to all players to submit night actions for N2.

Starting at daybreak,

we will be in DEFCON 1 for the remainder of the game

. Nukes will run on real-time countdowns (

so I need to learn how the countdown tags work

), so it is imperative that players keep this real-time aspect in mind as we continue forward. Nukes will not stop for your V/LA. Nukes will not stop for Night Phases. Nukes will not stop when we sleep. Nukes will not stop if their launcher dies.

Again, violations of RULE 13 will be met with extreme prejudice as I, the Moderator, cannot be here 24/7 to verify the authenticity of certain moderator commands.

13) There is zero-tolerance for being deceptive with the moderator commands (posting Nuke: [PLAYERNAME] when you do not possess a missile silo in nuclear launch mode, for example). Violations of this rule may be punishable by modkill on the first offense at the moderator’s discretion.

[END TRANSMISSION]

Edit: Someone has instructed me in the ways of COUNTDOWN TAGS. Issue resolved.

[Andrius]

[Andrius]

[NORAD SYSTEM] Night Two is over.
[NORAD SYSTEM] Please hold for a message from President AlmasterGM...

[Andrius]

[Day Three, DEFCON 1]

[EMERGENCY BROADCAST] We interrupt our regularly scheduled programming with a special announcement from the President.

...

"My fellow Americans. It is with great sorrow I inform you that Congress has voted to go to war with the New Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, and I have approved the increase of security to DEFCON 1. The Russian military forces in our territorial waters have not deterred from their present course. I have authorized

all military commanders in charge of nuclear weapons to act as they see fit

. Should something disrupt the chain of command, all commanders are to follow military procedure during wartime."

"I do not know if America will survive to the new year. I ask that each and every American citizen and guest within our great country to hand together in solidarity and Faith that our cause, a rightous cause, will prevail. While I am not a religious man, on behalf of the millions of lives who now hang in the balance, I ask those of you who pray to pray, and those of you who fight to take up arms."

"America will prevail. Good night, and good luck."

"All Commanders, NUKE THOSE COMMIE BASTARDS DEAD!"

The anthem of the people had been sung.
The vodka had been drunk.
The missiles were loaded.
They awaited the Missile bay doors to open as the boorish American president spoke to his people of hope and freedom and capitalism.

General Spiffeh scoffed and surveyed his men one last time before giving the order. As he turned to his aide, an explosion rocked the facility. As he struggled to his feet, soldiers and technicians ran to and fro, shouting over the groaning earth. "Sabotage" one of them said. The nuclear reactor was melting down. As someone helped him to his feet he knew someone did this to them. The filthy Americans, perhaps, were not above subterfuge.

He gave the order to seal off the facility. His men would never leave, the missiles would not fire, and they would all burn. As the containment crews rallied, the blast doors were shut. If he could not save his country, he would save his people in the surrounding villages.

The order was given. His men looked to him expectantly, although they knew there was no fleeing.

Spiffeh took in a breath, saluted, and began to sing the anthem of his people.

Spiffeh, Russian (Missile Silo), was Sabotaged N2.

It is now Day Three, which will end at 21:00 PST on 12/16/2016, as I will be in my last class of my Masters program!

LASTLY. NUCLEAR LAUNCHES AND DEATHS DO NOT RESET THE VOTECOUNT.

[Andrius]

[McMenno]

nice

nuke Nukebringer

[mastina]

First off, I was writing this post at the time you guys decided to be assholes and hammer SAD, so the topic got locked before I could post it. All the same, I wrote it so even though it holds no relevance tough luck. You get to have the post anyway.

If everyone in the game was telling me my strongest townread was scum. I pushed someone as scum. And that person flipped town.
Or
if I called someone town and that person flipped scum. I would then feel a lot of doubt for a read that everyone else was also feeling was wrong.

You're conflating Something_smart with SAD here.
SAD is my strongest townread.
Something_smart was a nulltownread.
I fought against the Something_smart wagon, even dismantling it via semi-intentionally drawing attention to myself.
Fuck, I even PM'd the mod saying, "If Something_smart flips scum, I'm going to look like a complete and total idiot for this". (You can read the message yourself when you die, I believe it was the last one I sent on D1.)

But he wasn't that strong of a townread. I thought he was more likely to be town than not.
He was not someone I was gonna bank the game on being town.
I also thought he would not claim to have the cop if he did not have it, as that would be POINTLESSLY suicidal: the cop has a doc on them unless scum nabbed the power, and we now know the scumteam does NOT have the roleblocker. So I was in firm objection to lynching an uncounterclaimed cop, no fucking duh.

But circumstances changed. I still hold that it makes no sense for the scum to sacrifice a member to out a role they cannot get rid of. So I still hold that GiF is suspect as a result.

But the two are entirely different.

SAD is my strongest townread, and there are MANY reasons for this.
Something_smart was a circumstantial townread: things happened which made him look more likely to be town than not, but they were small things here and there. I pretty explicitly said I hadn't even read his posts! So no shit my read on him wasn't strong. I wasn't even paying attention to him. I was paying attention to other stuff.

The two cannot be compared.

you're not at odds with your reads as a result of anything anyone else is saying, it's only the thoughts you alone are having regarding them.

If you were paying attention to my posts, you would have noticed this is explicitly wrong.

Who do you think it was that caused me to think, "Maybe I'm wrong about GiF?" It wasn't me. On D1 someone posted suspicion on GiF. I could be mistaken, but I think I may have actually been

minorly suspicious

of the person who had done so...yet EVEN IN SPITE OF THAT. I took their suspicion seriously. And here today, who do you think it was that made me think maybe I was wrong on GiF? I forget who it was who posted reasons why GiF could be town, but damn right I took them seriously.

Just because I don't acknowledge a post doesn't mean I don't read it. Just because I don't acknowledge a post doesn't mean I don't take it seriously. I do. And I take it all into consideration. I rerun my calculations. I redo the probabilities. I take their words, and try to see if maybe, just maybe, they are valid. And from those, I make...well actually. The vast majority of the changes to my lists. Most of the changes aren't because I reevaluated off of already-existing posts. Most of the changes are because of what people say about other people, and me mentally taking into consideration their words: do their words come from town or scum? And REGARDLESS of town or scum, is what they're saying valid or invalid?


Now, second of all. As promised.

I get the sense as I depart my computer that mastina's sudden flurry of activity is more or less motivated to derail the righteous SAD lynch.

Hey.
Hey Magna.

What do you think of your glorious crusade now?

When I tell you someone is my fucking strongest townread and not to fucking lynch them because they WILL be flipping town.
Maybe, juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust maybe.
You should recognize that they are my fucking STRONGEST townread and will be flipping town. Because while I can and will be wrong about my townreads. I am NEVER fucking wrong about my absolute STRONGEST townread.


Now, third off.

Hey, Everyone

.
Remember how I said I was going to nuke LLD?

I lied.

LLD was never going to be my nuke, LEAST of all come D2 where I was biting my tongue trying to hide the fact that I had gained a townread on her overnight thanks to the Something_smart scumflip. (Yes, Something_smart flipping scum made me instantly think LLD was town.)

When I entered into the game, and here's the neat part.
I had basically a three-step plan.

Step one: shitpost. Deceive. Mislead. Let people see me as trash. This way, town would ignore me. If scum paid attention to me in spite of this, then that would be a BIG FUCKING DEAL. If the scum didn't pay attention to me, all the better.

I knew this was a risk: ticking people off could have gotten me lynched. I also knew that even if I didn't get lynched, I was putting my reputation on the line. People see shitposting, they assume shitty player. So future games of mine could have been tainted by the gambit.

Step two: In spite of my shitposting, communicate my alignment to enough key areas that I could generate useful content. Get enough people focused on me, and I'd be a sounding board of sorts, where content would bounce back and forth and materialize. From this process, I would generate reads on players, based around their psychological profiles.

Some players make more sense as doing certain things. For instance, Cephrir trying to figure me out was town. GuyInFreezer writing me off was scum. (And no. I did not call GiF a terrorist, nor did I call him stupid, as he so claims. I did however call him both smart, and scum.) From here, with my reads communicated, I would have furthered my agenda, but there'd be a problem:

Nobody listens to a shitposter. Which is why I knew I needed further deception. (This is one reason why the valuable information roles, cop and eavesdropper, were top picks of mine.)

Enter step three: the reveal, where we are at.
I was never intending to nuke LLD.
I had a scumread on her D1, sure. And that scumread vanished D2, sure. But I was always going to nuke somebody else, and this is why: because the scum would THINK I was going to nuke LLD.

If LLD were scum, then they would sabotage my nukes. This would be confirmed the moment I tried to launch nukes, so we'd get a free LLD lynch from it.

HOWEVER.

If LLD were town, then the scum would WANT me to nuke her. This would be confirmed the moment I tried to launch nukes and they weren't sabotaged. Because town nuking town is exactly what the scum want.

And therein lies the trap.
If my nukes successfully launch, Lady Lambdadelta is town as I currently believe.
If my nukes were sabotaged, then LLD is probably scum.
This is the reason why I was tip-toeing about answering on LLD being absent from my reads, all evasive and whatnot: because while everything I said was true, this plan HINGED on the scum not picking up on my plan. It relied on them thinking I was going to do exactly as I said I was going to do, so I couldn't let the truth out even though I wanted to.

In short...do you remember when GreyICE described my reads inversion process and I told him he was right?
This is how he was right.

I have four scumreads: Ircher, GiF, RC, and Zito.
I can't nuke Ircher because he almost assuredly nabbed an anti-nuke defense.
I can't nuke GiF because he's the fucking cop even if he is a rotten Russian dirty scumbag.
So the question I asked myself D2 mostly but also on D1 was which of RC/Zito to light up.

Now I typed this during the night, immediately after the SAD mislynch.
So I won't know the results of the night. I might be forced to revise my plans come morning.
But if nothing changes...

NUKE: Papa Zito!

If by the time you read this, nukes are headed my way, I'll put up a full readslist with reasons for everyone to see, but that's a task for the morning, after I get the flips from the night to work with, not something to do in advance.

I

told

you I had a plan!

[McMenno]

a promise is a promise after all

[Andrius]

[Day 3, DEFCON 1 - Game Event]

...

[NORAD SYSTEM] ALERT. ALERT. NUCLEAR LAUNCH DETECTED.
[NORAD SYSTEM] Attempting to locate launch site...
[NORAD SYSTEM] Missile tracked to facility XR-843, currently commanded by

McMenno.

[NORAD SYSTEM] Analyzing flight trajectory…
[NORAD SYSTEM] Missile is currently targeting coordinates registered to

Nukebringer

.
[NORAD SYSTEM] Estimating time until impact...
[NORAD SYSTEM] Warhead will detonate in (expired on 2016-12-04 20:37:02)

[Nahdia]

If you read the first word of every line in mastina's wall, it says:

First no you're SAD. Something I fuck. Was but he I the but but SAD. Something hadn't the if who been was just rerun. Changes taking now, hey hey, what. When maybe you my now hey remember. I LLD. Scumflip when I step. The I assume step sorts some nor problem. Nobody enter. I, I LLD. If, however, what and if. If this scum in this I. I. I so now. So but nuke. If work I.

[Andrius]

[Day 3, DEFCON 1 - Game Event]

...

[NORAD SYSTEM] ALERT. ALERT. NUCLEAR LAUNCH DETECTED.
[NORAD SYSTEM] Attempting to locate launch site...
[NORAD SYSTEM] Missile tracked to facility XR-843, currently commanded by

mastina

.
[NORAD SYSTEM] Analyzing flight trajectory…
[NORAD SYSTEM] Missile is currently targeting coordinates registered to

Papa Zito

.
[NORAD SYSTEM] Estimating time until impact...
[NORAD SYSTEM] Warhead will detonate in (expired on 2016-12-04 20:37:02)

[mastina]

The Spiffeh kill changes little.
Now, cross referencing lists though:

The fully list of players I'd say qualify for that are SpyreX, Papa Zito, probably Red Coyote, probably MagnaofIllusion, maybe Equinox (so, Nukebringer), Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, I'd qualify myself as included (YMMV), GuyInFreezer, Reck, GreyICE, and probably Cephrir too.

The players I'd expect to kill Fate, and then kill Spiffeh, are much more narrow.
In fact, Nukebringer is the player I would most strongly associate with a Spiffeh kill, because if any of these players have prior history with Spiffeh I'm not familiar with it.

I mean it does tell me not all four of my scumreads can be right.
But Spiffeh is not the trolling scum, so there's still a troll on the scumteam.
And Spiffeh is not the codemaking scum, so there's still a codemaker on the scumteam.
So I hold those reads to be (mostly) true.

And,
VOTE: Red Coyote.

[Nukebringer]

Did someone say that it was time to party?

I will be in my last class of my Masters program!

Congratulations, Andrius!

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey.
Hey Magna.

What do you think of your glorious crusade now?

When I tell you someone is my fucking strongest townread and not to fucking lynch them because they WILL be flipping town.
Maybe, juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust maybe.
You should recognize that they are my fucking STRONGEST townread and will be flipping town. Because while I can and will be wrong about my townreads. I am NEVER fucking wrong about my absolute STRONGEST townread.

I think you spent so much time arguing against SS to be lynched Day 1 that I don't really care if you were right on SAD. SAD was a quality lynch and regardless whether you think so or not that's the truth.

True story.

So juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust maybe you should maybe chew on the fact that I don't really care if he was your strongest Town-read or not.

Do like it? Too bad.

[Nukebringer]

nuke Nukebringer

Nice, nice.

I applaud your ability to throw the first shot, friend.

You're going to regret this as soon as my partner gets here.

[Nukebringer]

SAD was a quality lynch and regardless whether you think so or not that's the truth.

No it wasn't.....

[Andrius]

Ircher is V/LA until 12/5.

[Nahdia]

quick someone nuke him it'll land before he gets back

[Nukebringer]

quick someone nuke him it'll land before he gets back

The chances are pretty high that a nuke on Ircher would be wasted.