DEFCON Mafia 4.0 - СЛАВА РОССИИ МАТЕРИ

[Lady Lambdadelta]

There are certain things an SK doesn't do when they're planning to live for the long game.

They don't take a negative utility role or a role that the scum will have to kill eventually.

They don't take 2 nukes and leave themselves open to jsut about every feasable form of random death possible in the game.

That LITERALLY eliminates (Nahdia, Cephrir, LLD, Vi, UT, MoI).

SpyreX's role is the ONLY FEASIBLE alternative and it just feels too weak.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

There is EXACTLY one person who can be SK here. You want to tell me I''m good at this game and then turn around and backhanded compliment me with that shit?

Fuckig recognize that I don't play well with logic, I'm not a fucking rational god damned thinker.

And yet I get results.

Because I'm fucking right.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I've decided MoI is town. Reading back, a lot of the things he did just feel and have motives from the right perspective.
--------
Vi/SpyreX
Spyrex/UT

I think I can stop here for now.

I need to do the math but if we need to lynch the Terrorist, we lynch GreyICE. If we need to lynch scum, we lynch SpyreX.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

If Cephrir flips scum... then I redo my thinking.

If a non-cephrir entity dies... I'll be entirely shocked.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

actually scratch that this is simple

if Cephrir flips scum we lynch GreyICE, remove the terrorist, and put the scum in a terrible position.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

5:2:1

1 Nuke 1 Lynch 2 Deaths (possible 1 death but unlkely) confirmed.
2 nukes conditional on living next day.

If Cephrir is town and SpyreX is scum, we move into night at 4:1:1.

Both scum and SK will want to shoot a townie and force a prisonner's dilema?

Unless nukes matter.

Scum has 1 nuke left in this scenario no matter what... but can't nuke the terrorist without losing the game themselves.

We town can win almost all 3:1 scenarios, because the worst that can happen is the nuke kills 1 townie and we're in lylo, which was the situation in a 3:1 defcon anyway. (both terrorist and scum will likely have a nuke)

So the question is, can town ever win a 2:1:1 scenario?

Only if one of the scum is nuked and the other lynched that day. It can't ever go to night again and that's a far cry.

And the facts of the matter are that given GreyICE is SK, he can never be killed at night by scum so it's entirely up to greyICE. He can just pick a person he knows is town and shoot them.

If both parties shoot the same person and it's 3:1:1... if no nukes are fired town can win, otherwise it's the same scenario as 2:1:1, where we need one team to nuke the other team.
-----------------

If we lynch GreyICE and kill the SK, we go into night at worst 4:2 and come back out 3:2.

Scum will have likely 1 nuke left and they can launch it, but not at MoI or Me. The town nuke would be unable to fire because SpyreX would sabotage it. so if it's...

MoI
Nahdia
Vi
SpyreX
UT

If scum nuke the other Silo and a scum is lynched it's 2:1, goes into night, kills Nahdia, game over, scum win.

And that's inevitable, there's no work around there.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Mod, what happens if a town fail safe and a scum are the only ones left alive? Does the game instantly end in favour of the scum? Is MoI considered still a "threat" to the EU?

or does the scum have to actually issue a kill order on MoI... and then live for 48 hours?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Because if scum are forced to kill MoI and it ends in a tie... they would be forced to kill MoI and not me tonight, and force MoI to make a more blind shot.

Which simultaneously gives us a chance to win, right?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

which might make lynching GreyICE the better scenario because I'll be honest relying on the scum to cross kill and not just stick us in a prisonner's dilemma is wishful fucking thinking

[GreyICE]

Well its nice to see some signs of life from you. Oh wait it's to obsessively SK hunt while acknowledging that we couldn't possibly lynch the SK anyway.

Vote: LLD

I have a long response to type up to Vi at some point mentioning how Vi breadcrumbed a role post 1 in Fate's game using an incredibly complex reference to a previous game that was both undeniable, undetectable, and ironclad, and asked "would I do this as scum" then not only had no real answer to our universal "yes" but then also subsequently flipped scum. But this will do.

[Vi]

Mod, what happens if a town fail safe and a scum are the only ones left alive? Does the game instantly end in favour of the scum? Is MoI considered still a "threat" to the EU?

or does the scum have to actually issue a kill order on MoI... and then live for 48 hours?

?

Fail Safe:

Courtesy of Dr Strangelove or: How I learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb. {If a player targets you with a nuclear launch, you automatically launch a nuclear weapon at that player.

If you are killed by the Stealth Bomber, you may make a single post in the thread containing only the words Nuke: [PLAYERNAME] up to 72 hours after your death.

Your nukes cannot be recalled or prevented by any means.}

In the words of the youth of yesteryear, "ha ha oh wow". I appreciate how it doesn't work in the event of a Terrorist attack. And, with a literal reading of the Win Condition...

You are aligned with Russia. You win if, for 48 hours, all threats to the EU have been neutralized and at least one European remains alive.

...with an implied

or nothing can prevent the same

, which means it's not one of those wussy 50% rules. One Russian + Fail Safe that doesn't get lynched or Terrorized (or nuked I guess) = no Russian victory.

This is... two roles that the Russians cannot have alive at endgame, now (plus Air Base)? Has the informed minority ever won DEFCON?

Because if scum are forced to kill MoI and it ends in a tie... they would be forced to kill MoI and not me tonight, and force MoI to make a more blind shot.

Which simultaneously gives us a chance to win, right?

I think you've disqualified yourself from using the word "force". That said, if we assume 4-2-1 coming out of this nuke,
*if we lynch Russkie (4-1-1 get some info), and assuming the Terrorist hits Town, if the Russian hits the Terrorist, then they go to 3-1-0 with at least one of {Fail Safe, Air Base} in play. The only way this ends in a Russian victory is if Moai is the last Russian.
*if we lynch Russkie (4-1-1) and assuming the Terrorist hits Town, if the Russian hits the Fail Safe, then it becomes 2-1-1 with at least two nukes in play, one of which is directed by the Terrorist. At that point the game is basically decided by the Fail Safe (including and especially if Moai is the Terrorist ) or whichever nukes are left in play.
*if we lynch Town (3-2-1) then... the Terrorist hits Russian (3-1-1), if the Russians hit the Terrorist, it goes to (3-1-0) and it becomes LyLo. The dynamics of either of them being the Fail Safe are weird and I don't really care enough to do much with this because it doesn't matter let's let someone else roll the dice.

@mod: What happens in an endgame with one Russian and Air Base?

It seems like there's no winner

because there's not enough nuclear death

.

I have a long response to type up to Vi at some point mentioning how Vi breadcrumbed a role post 1 in Fate's game using an incredibly complex reference to a previous game that was both undeniable, undetectable, and ironclad, and asked "would I do this as scum" then not only had no real answer to our universal "yes" but then also subsequently flipped scum. But this will do.

Why are you going off of one game that happened in 2011 for all your Vi meta needs?
Also I'm looking back at the game now because I have no idea what you're talking about and I tried claiming/crumbing Miller as scum? In a game where someone else also claimed Miller with better flavor (but was third-party Lyncher)? Do you see how there might be some difference here? I mean I get that trousers are not usually made from clear material but etc.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

MAD and Happy Ever After is Terrorist Win, Vi.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Which is why scum can't do that play if it works like I think it does.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Also, Grey, I've narrowed scum down to Spyrex + Vi/UT. I'm not just SK hunting so you can eat a dick for that misrepresentation.

[Vi]

also and tbf it is completely consistent for me to listen to GreyICE about who the Russians are and LLD about who the Terrorist is, neither of your words are in vain

I really just want to say that because while it is kind of in character for GreyICE to use :badmeta: against me it's still impressive to watch it happen in real time

MAD and Happy Ever After is Terrorist Win, Vi.

You are aligned with only yourself. You win if everyone else has been neutralized, even if you are no longer alive.

well "neutralized" is a weird term

[Vi]

HEY WAIT A MINUTE
I thought you were supposed to be able to see right through me LLD
whytf am I on your scumlist

[Vi]

HEY WAIT A MINUTE
I thought you were supposed to be able to see right through me LLD
whytf am I on your scumlist

this is the amazing part because people who have no experience with me would probably be like uhhhhh wtf is this and how is it not scummy
but NO I'm surrounded by people who have copious experience with Vi-Town
even with like three years of rust and meta drift this one should be a slow pitch

[Lady Lambdadelta]

HEY WAIT A MINUTE
I thought you were supposed to be able to see right through me LLD
whytf am I on your scumlist

1) PoE: Nahdia and MoI are likely town
2) Logic: Scum have 1 more nuke, probably
3) Cheetory's behaviour: He nuked Hippo and made it seem like it was his emotional state that caused it.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

and the scum team knows this

The scum team knows GreyICE is SK... and need to lynch him today to win.

But then why did Cheet refuse to nuke Grey?

maybe Vi can't be scum then...

It's SpyreX and UT, isn't it.

This thought process is why I lean UT over you though, so.

[Vi]

HEY WAIT A MINUTE
I thought you were supposed to be able to see right through me LLD
whytf am I on your scumlist

1) PoE: Nahdia and MoI are likely town
2) Logic: Scum have 1 more nuke, probably
3) Cheetory's behaviour: He nuked Hippo and made it seem like it was his emotional state that caused it.

1) I feel like I asked for people to tell me why Moai is Town and words happened and my brain did not process them. There's still a fuzzy spot where MoI should be. For my sake, could you etc.?
2) What the hell kind of "Logic" is that? It's not a probabilistic argument. (This is disregarding how I think UT is scum for other reasons.)
3)

screw hiplop

I cannot make a counterargument to this at this time, nor will I be able to before the game is over.

cut: by that same token why didn't UT nuke GreyICE
I mean bearing in mind there's a simple explanation that no one thought things through

[Lady Lambdadelta]

HEY WAIT A MINUTE
I thought you were supposed to be able to see right through me LLD
whytf am I on your scumlist

1) PoE: Nahdia and MoI are likely town
2) Logic: Scum have 1 more nuke, probably
3) Cheetory's behaviour: He nuked Hippo and made it seem like it was his emotional state that caused it.

1) I feel like I asked for people to tell me why Moai is Town and words happened and my brain did not process them. There's still a fuzzy spot where MoI should be. For my sake, could you etc.?
2) What the hell kind of "Logic" is that? It's not a probabilistic argument. (This is disregarding how I think UT is scum for other reasons.)
3)

screw hiplop

I cannot make a counterargument to this at this time, nor will I be able to before the game is over.

cut: by that same token why didn't UT nuke GreyICE
I mean bearing in mind there's a simple explanation that no one thought things through

UT nuking GreyICE is hard to do wihtout explination. Especially when UT has been on the choo choo mastin train, for a while now. Mental consistency is important for scum.

Cheetory was being pressured by me and as scum had every right to just be like "fuck it" and send the nuke at Grey and then blame me later for brain washing hm or something IDK.

It's way more meaningful

[Lady Lambdadelta]

AND I TOLD YOU MY BRAIN DOESN'T WORK RATIONALLY, VI.

YOU KNOW THAT.

[Andrius]

Votecount

SpyreX [2] - Nahdia, Cephrir
Lady Lambdadelta [2] - Vi, GreyICE

Not Voting [4] - SpyreX, Untrod Tripod, MagnaofIllusion, Lady Lambdadelta

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
It is now Day Four, which will end at 21:00 PST on 12/21/2016.


Nahdia is V/LA until 12/12.

Projected Impact Times:
Unknown: (expired on 2016-12-12 17:40:58)
Nuclear Detonation does NOT reset the Votecount.

Please hold for answers.

[Vi]

Please hold for answers.

*grips Andrius*

That sure is an interesting group of people not voting.

[Andrius]

Mod, what happens if a town fail safe and a scum are the only ones left alive? Does the game instantly end in favour of the scum? Is MoI considered still a "threat" to the EU?

or does the scum have to actually issue a kill order on MoI... and then live for 48 hours?

No, the game does not end immediately in favor of the scum. Every living player is considered a threat to every member of opposing factions.