DEFCON Mafia 4.0 - СЛАВА РОССИИ МАТЕРИ

[GreyICE]

or not at all, if Vi is town.

Vi is absolutely planning to nuke me if UT doesn't flip SK and the SK doesn't die tonight. And I'm fine with that.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

And if hypothetical serial killer me shoots Vi tonight, then what am I going to do? Submarine you tomorrow?

Or maybe... maybe... maybe I'm trying to lynch a guy who I think is the SK? Holy shit Lexi, he doesn't even know what about your arguments he likes. If he ran the self-preservation flag up any higher he'd need a beanstalk to mount it on clouds.

The entire town don't even know what to make of my arguments, that's not really a concern for me.

I have terrible fucking arguments. In the end, it comes down to circumstantial evidence, night kill analysis, role choice speculation and "GUT >=D!!!!".

It doesn't change the fact that I'm right, but it's not something I'm going to have an easy time explaining. I can't fucking do the logic thing where people are like "ah yes and in post 357, he made this claim and clearly that indicates"

No. I can talk about tone, I can talk about intent, I can talk about motivation.

And that's it.

[GreyICE]

Actually, I made a list of all the days you've been an unutterable prick in a mafia game.

It's like... all it says is "ending in the letter y?" Why that's... Monday, definitely and Tuesday, and Wednesday and Thursday too... Friday... Saturday... holy shit, I think it's all of them.

My conviction isn't faltering and frankly if you're this upset that I'm scum reading you, I don't know what to tell you.

You're literally upset at me because I decided you were the serial killer in a lylo situation. The rest of this shit is you blowing up at me.

I'm genuinely trying to not fucking yell scream or get angry with you anymore because it's not worth it and it's like you're trying to bait me.

I'm genuinely upset you brought up something which I told you for a fact at the time the reason for.

I told you I didn't want to bring it onto this site, I wanted to quietly go VLA in this game and forget about that game and focus on the job search.

And you fucking made it a point against me in this game.

Fuck you, that was a low fucking blow.

[Andrius]

Votecount

GreyICE [3] - Lady Lambdadelta, Untrod Tripod, SpyreX
Untrod Tripod [1] - GreyICE
SpyreX [1] - Vi


Not Voting [2] - MagnaofIllusion, Nahdia

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.
It is now Day Four, which will end at 21:00 PST on 12/21/2016.


Projected Impact Times:
n/a

Nuclear Detonation does NOT reset the Votecount.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

or not at all, if Vi is town.

Vi is absolutely planning to nuke me if UT doesn't flip SK and the SK doesn't die tonight. And I'm fine with that.

Ok but if we lynch town, isn't the game over?

We're currently 5:1:1

4:1:1 if scum and SK both kill town

2:1:1

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Actually, I made a list of all the days you've been an unutterable prick in a mafia game.

It's like... all it says is "ending in the letter y?" Why that's... Monday, definitely and Tuesday, and Wednesday and Thursday too... Friday... Saturday... holy shit, I think it's all of them.

My conviction isn't faltering and frankly if you're this upset that I'm scum reading you, I don't know what to tell you.

You're literally upset at me because I decided you were the serial killer in a lylo situation. The rest of this shit is you blowing up at me.

I'm genuinely trying to not fucking yell scream or get angry with you anymore because it's not worth it and it's like you're trying to bait me.

I'm genuinely upset you brought up something which I told you for a fact at the time the reason for.

I told you I didn't want to bring it onto this site, I wanted to quietly go VLA in this game and forget about that game and focus on the job search.

And you fucking made it a point against me in this game.

Fuck you, that was a low fucking blow.

I didn't even realize that was at the same time as the other game, dude.

I honestly didn't know.

I'm sorry.

[GreyICE]

The game ain't over until the fat lady sings, as Vi has pointed out. Is MOI town? You think I'm the SK, if he's town there's a town controlled kill because they have to kill him (not just "endgame him"). Is Vi town? Is UT? One of UT, Vi, and MOI must be town by flat mathematics. Especially if you think I'm the SK.

Hey Lexi, you've played on site what, over 6 years? How often does UT go "wow LLD, my favorite player, I unquestioningly sheep her at the most critical juncture of the game to date"? Like honestly, how many times has he said that on the most important day of the game? Not day 1, not day 2, a day where the town win percentage swings from like 75% on a correct lynch to 25% on an incorrect lynch... and he blindly sheeps you. You must have played what, 15, 20 games with him? How many of them has he done that in?

Pedit: Apology accepted, as you knew it would be <3

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Do you think I don't have paranoia about UT?

I'm convinced you're SK but the scum thing is like...

it's not SpySpy-chan... and not Nahdia.

Probably not MoI

So what, ti's Vi or UT? consistent with my nuke theory?

And it's more likely than not I'm only getting one shot at it?

That's how I view this.

I only get one shot to lynch the SK, one shot to lynch the scum.

I have no presence or credit beyond INITIAL force of personality. People are following my read on you because I am confident. And I am confident.

if I die, it won't happen...

[GreyICE]

Like seriously, look at this LLD: Mastina cancels the nuke in 5033. Almost immediately Cheetory launches the nuke at Hiplop. He was trying to nuke the SK. And the reason he was trying to nuke the SK was that he was under the belief that Cephrir would live. With him and Cephrir living through the day then scum would be much better off with a dead SK. He made his decision virtually the instant Mastina recalled the nuke.

This was 90% scum shooting at the SK. Vi immediately went on an SK hunt and then backpeddled when I shot down Vi's math. Vi's a fucking MATH MAJOR. I shouldn't be shooting down Vi's math.

Like who is the last Ruskie? Oh tell me great crystal ball...

Andrius, does a specific scum player submit the kill?

No, the factional nightkill is not assigned to any one member.
This explains why the Radar and Fighter cannot track or learn factional abilities, respectively.

The Terrorist benefits from a similar clause in that his kill is also a factional ability, being a product of his alignment and not the draft itself.

So what you're saying here is, the nightkills cannot be blocked at all by the aircraft carrier?

Well, uh.

Cancel launch

.
Technically I should wait for the mod to say yes.
But if the mod says yes. Then that means either Ceph stopped the scum kill (making him town), or the scum killed the holder of the airbase (which is either MoI or GreyICE), making THEM town.

It also technically reopens the gate for LLD to be the serial killer, but that's hiplop anyway.

Nuke: hiplop

[GreyICE]

I mean you disagree with me here on this?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Oh fuck Vi's scum.

At that point in time, when I told Cheet to nnuke GreyICE, I was set that GI was the fail safe.

So, theory time:

What if Cheetory is scum who desperately wants to kill the SK with his nuke. He doesn't know I'm wrong about GI's role (so MoI isn't Russian and neither is GreyICE) and doesn't want to die because he's scum. Instead, he chooses to nuke the person he's most concerned is the SK and frames it as "not wanting to be told what to do."

I've been slammed today for SK hunting but Cheetory literally nuked the only confirmed non-russian because he thought he might be SK and refused to nuke the possible Fail Safe.

I was looking at this the wrong way with a 20/20 vision. I assumed not nuking GreyICE meant... ohhhhhh

No that fits too fucking well now that I think about it.

And it also fits with the dueling wagons from day 1 making UT less likely to be scum, given there's no way Vi/UT is a team...

some small sliver of my soul still hopes Cephrir flips scum but the posting he's made since the nuke was launched has been too town oriented I think.

So then Nahdia or SpyreX and that's not even a competition in my mind.

But that means I need to convince MoI and UT to lynch... Vi? Lynching the scum nuke is the way we win, right?

Cause GreyICE genuinely believes I'm scum and wants to lynch me to further his win condition. He's wrong, but he's not being convinced of that so.

And Vi/SpyreX aren't ever bussing.

Ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Why does literally every townie need to be on the same page I hate my life.

That's my final assesment. I agree with MoI's read on UT and my review of the nukes from today convinces me it's Vi>UT for scum nuke.

SpyreX is scum for reasons discussed before, MoI probably not scum due to the way his mind is progressing though his weird fucking shit trying to make a Nahdia/LLDpairing work is weird

[GreyICE]

Okay so we're on the same page there.

So when has UT ever sheeped you, SERIOUSLY

[Vi]

Uuuuhhggg. I don't know, dude. LLD hasn't convinced me on GreyICE at all, and I don't see why UT and SpyreX are voting there either. I understand the argument for voting SpyreX but just... his play and his draft are so un-SK like. Unless he's going for "do stuff the SK would never do". awiiefjosrehgui

I don't think you understand my point. I won't claim to direct what you do, but get off the damn sidelines.

I don't really care about deployments being scummy or not.

hm maybe I should? I haven't paid attention to who claimed which drafts but I know that you basically either get your first pick or nothing. That said "people with bad SK deployments" pretty much only eliminates Nahdia and maybe SpyreX though.

Vi is planning to nuke you at the last minute.

I would also point out that I have no expectation of SEEING the last minute. I think you've figured this out, but nuking GreyICE should 100% be considered a scum claim. Me and GreyICE being the last two players are alive such that this kind of suspicion is warranted is... possible, I guess? but considering the game state now and where it's going, etc. And I'd point out that my play recently, if coming from scum, has really been the self-aware triple-cross where I point out that GreyICE is a must-dead for Russia and then proceed to argue

against

lynching him, knowing that this makes people so hype FOR doing so because nothing I suggest ever works and people live to shoot my ideas down. As scum I would have stfu about that bit a long time ago and waited for someone else to inevitably figure it out (preferably after I hammered GreyICE AS I COULD HAVE DONE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT MY LEISURE WITHOUT FATAL REPERCUSSIONS INSTEAD OF RESISTING THE WAGON SO HARD).

The most charitable things I have to say about the rest of the overnight discussion are mostly not charitable enough to post, but I would like to ask GreyICE if he has ever dug through his ass to find all those games where he's seen me as Town, or if he's been satisfied with whatever fits his predecided notion of me being scum.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Uuuuhhggg. I don't know, dude. LLD hasn't convinced me on GreyICE at all, and I don't see why UT and SpyreX are voting there either. I understand the argument for voting SpyreX but just... his play and his draft are so un-SK like. Unless he's going for "do stuff the SK would never do". awiiefjosrehgui

I don't think you understand my point. I won't claim to direct what you do, but get off the damn sidelines.

I don't really care about deployments being scummy or not.

hm maybe I should? I haven't paid attention to who claimed which drafts but I know that you basically either get your first pick or nothing. That said "people with bad SK deployments" pretty much only eliminates Nahdia and maybe SpyreX though.

Vi is planning to nuke you at the last minute.

I would also point out that I have no expectation of SEEING the last minute. I think you've figured this out, but nuking GreyICE should 100% be considered a scum claim. Me and GreyICE being the last two players are alive such that this kind of suspicion is warranted is... possible, I guess? but considering the game state now and where it's going, etc. And I'd point out that my play recently, if coming from scum, has really been the self-aware triple-cross where I point out that GreyICE is a must-dead for Russia and then proceed to argue

against

lynching him, knowing that this makes people so hype FOR doing so because nothing I suggest ever works and people live to shoot my ideas down. As scum I would have stfu about that bit a long time ago and waited for someone else to inevitably figure it out (preferably after I hammered GreyICE AS I COULD HAVE DONE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT MY LEISURE WITHOUT FATAL REPERCUSSIONS INSTEAD OF RESISTING THE WAGON SO HARD).

The most charitable things I have to say about the rest of the overnight discussion are mostly not charitable enough to post, but I would like to ask GreyICE if he has ever dug through his ass to find all those games where he's seen me as Town, or if he's been satisfied with whatever fits his predecided notion of me being scum.

IF YOU ARE SCUM YOU CANNOT LYNCH THE SK TODAY.

SK DYING TODAY IS GAME OVER FOR SCUM!VI. YOU NEED THE EXTRA KILL.

[Untrod Tripod]

Okay so we're on the same page there.

So when has UT ever sheeped you, SERIOUSLY

it's been a while since we've been on the same team

[Untrod Tripod]

someone's upset that they don't think they were caught for the right reasons :3

[Lady Lambdadelta]

MoI, Nahdia, will one of you please hammer GI so we can stop the rumination on the same points?

[MagnaofIllusion]

So at this point here we are. I would feel completely great if we lynch the Serial Killer today as I think the last Russian is either Vi or Spyrex and eliminating two additional kills would basically lock-down the Commie.

So I’m pretty much down to GreyICE or Nahdia as the Serial Killer. UT is an outside shot and the Communists absolutely can’t allow him and his two Nukes to live til tomorrow if that is the case. Everyone else doesn’t make sense. So my vote needs to land on either Grey or Nahdia.

Grey is a high risk high reward lynch. If he is the Serial Killer then game is locked. If he’s not then I’ve just snuffed the Town player that the Sub and Vi (if she is Commie) has to expend a Nuke on tomorrow.

VOTE: Grey

Doing this for five reasons.

1. Grey’s deploy does make sense for a SK.
2. Fate N1 kill does make sense.
3. Vi refusing to hammer combined with my Vi Commie read.
4. Nobody is going to hang Nahdia with me.
5. Grey hasn't bothered to even campaign to me. I think Town Grey would likely do so.

If I’m wrong I’m sure I will hear all about it in the Dead Thread and post-game. Personally I can deal if that is the case.

GreyICE SK means that regardless who dies tonight Vi should be lynched immediately tomorrow.
GreyICE Town means that I was probably correct on Nahdia.

--

@Moai 6012: Protecting PZ over the Cop? When evidence strongly pointed to a failed kill anyway, therefore the Doc protection wouldn't apply? I don't think the intentional double-up theory holds.

See this is the sort of post that tips me towards you as Commie scum. The whole point of the theory is that the ONLY reason that I can see for that Sub Nuke to be fired in the circumstance it was is for the Terrorist to find PZ such a direct threat that they risked potentially wasting a Nuke on the off chance that PZ had draw protection to justify a firing on a target already “slated” for death. I can’t see any reason otherwise they didn’t bide their time and see the result of mastin’s Nuke.

You aren’t arguing the time frame or facts about claims and have gone straight to “drew a protection” which isn’t even a point I was making. I don’t think PZ drew a protection – the Sub Nuke only makes sense if Terrorist sees him as such a direct threat that they want PZ dead even if he drew protection. Dayplay says that points straight at Nahdia. No other Terrorist should feel that threatened.

I mean it’s possible that Sub Nuke was just derp and yolo stupid. Would not be the first time. But the fact you are buddying up to Nahdia and still not hammering Grey just stinks of Commie.

Looking at the scum in isolation and also looking at the vote counts I got the distinct impression that they were all after each other. Except Cephrir who didn't want to attack anyone ever.

I find the idea of lynching someone out of {LLD, UT, SpyreX} to be incredibly attractive for this reason.

LLD is 100% proven not to be the Serial Killer. Town wants the Serial Killer dead today. The fact that you even include her in your Today’s Lynch pool is scummy as fuck.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Bring on the flip Andy - I want to see if Town is doomed or winning ...

[Lady Lambdadelta]

SpyreX, sabotage Vi.

MoI, if you're shot tonight, put a bullet in Vi's eyes.

[Nahdia]

you're stronger willed than i, Magna.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

you're stronger willed than i, Magna.

I'm going to do so many fist pumps of victory if/when I get that delicious delicious SK flip.

Similarly, I'm going to do so many head hangs of shame if I'm wrong.

[Nahdia]

well, i won't say i told ya so, but im stating for the record now that i dont think he's scum.

but i mean, it should already be common knowledge that im Terrible At Mafia so if im wrong that's no shocker.

[Untrod Tripod]

stop trying to play it safe, he's already dead

[Lady Lambdadelta]

well, i won't say i told ya so, but im stating for the record now that i dont think he's scum.

but i mean, it should already be common knowledge that im Terrible At Mafia so if im wrong that's no shocker.

well of course he's not scum.

He's third party.