The Hobbit Mafia - GAME OVER

[the silent speaker]

/confirm

[the silent speaker]

Anyone want to talk about our four kills? Neck snapped sounds like trolls, and the only people I can think of to kill with scimitars are goblins. Lightning bolt? Only a wizard comes to mind, but Gandalf would surely not be evil, and why would a vig kill night 1?

[the silent speaker]

Well, I was going to comment on Nori being one of our deaths and not a mason, but Yaw beat me to it. As to the idea that Thorin is a mason because he recruited all the other dwarves, who are you positing that he's a mason with? Or are you suggesting that he's a pro-town recruiter?
Also, the Necromancer was mentioned in passing but never played a role in the story. I really really doubt Sauron is behind Smaug's death.
If we have three trolls (counting the one stinking up the first post) and a lot of goblins, isn't that unbalanced against the trolls anyway, Tigris?
On Gollum: if the neck-snapping was him, then the trolls didn't do anything. If the neck-snapping was trolls' work, which IMO is more likely, then Gollum either didn't do anything or isn't a killer.

vote: Korais666

, because either IS is honest and really thinks Korais is likely scum, probably for being the first person to suggest Gollum's presence as a killer, or else IS is scum, voted Korais to set himself up as innocent, and hastily unvoted when he noticed that his scum buddy might actually get lynched. It depends on what your definition of IS is, but either way Korais is a reasonable shot and certainly no worse than a random vote.
BTW, who is The_Kommandant and why is he listed as a player despite not being findable on the All Posts By feature?

[the silent speaker]

...so you are a one-shot doc effective only if you target the right role? Yeah right.

Unvote Korais, vote jediknight. FOS IS

for this line:

his bandwagon is fine to finally end a day,

as if day had dragged on forever. It's only five pages (four-and-a-half, really) and three days into day 1.
P.S. jediknight, scimitars and lightning do not a powerful scum role make. Whether you die by Wrath of God or by slipping on a banana peel and breaking your neck, you are exactly the same amount of dead and out of the game.

[the silent speaker]

Not much point in waiting for Nanook. He's dead, and was Bert the troll.

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I really don't like the feel of this bandwagon. I'll bet that at least two of Yaw, MMCL, Corsato and Flying Dutchman are scum (IS isn't striking me as horribly scummy). On the other hand, I checked Mr. Flay's posts, and out of six, no less than four were about how scummy Korais is. Also, we seem to have an awful lot of scum groups, so even if I'm right about htis bandwagon being riddled with scum, that doesn't make Korais innocent. Not by a long shot.

What evil groups do we have here? There's the trolls, goblins, apparently spiders, Smaug... Night 1 there was: a Smaug kill; a lightning bolt (?); a neck snapping (possibly troll kill); a scimitaring (possibly goblin kill). Night 2 there was: a throat slashing (sounds similar to the scimitar kill from night 1, hence goblins); a hanging by sticky silk (clearly spiders, but where were they night 1?); a kill with no marks (your guess is as good as mine). No sign of our neck snapper.
All of this has to be squeezed into 29 people and still leave room for: 13 dwarves; Elrond; almost certainly Bilbo; Gandalf, if he isn't one of our mystery killers; who else? Docs and cops, but how many and who?
Curiously, the trolls are marked parenthetically as "mafia", but the goblin is marked parenthetically as "goon". Does that signify?

[the silent speaker]

Has The_Kommandant posted in this game? At all? I can't find him on the Display Posts From feature. Mikehart, please replace him.

[the silent speaker]

Run that by me again, PeaceBringer? Why do you think IS has any connection to the spiders?

[the silent speaker]

vote: meaning of life 42

for spamming. That's just annoying, man.

[the silent speaker]

Goodbye.

Unvote: MOL42, vote: Korais666

[the silent speaker]

Well, IS had good instincts yesterday. Let's try him out again today.

Vote: CoolBot

.

[the silent speaker]

Yes, but IS was on about him the day before too.

[the silent speaker]

AIM harassment and e-mail stalking is a bad idea. If they don't look at the game, what guarantee they'll look at the death threats?

I am fine with voting Yaw if needed, but I will continue to follow IS's lead for now.

[the silent speaker]

MOL, why are you quadruple posting the letter K?

[the silent speaker]

Here's what I think:
1. I think Argoti's claimed role fits well with Galion the butler. And we all know how the Galion roleclaim turned out.
2. I think drummer needs to explain what he thought he was doing, first with his vote and then with his unvote.
3. I think Jaylen is waaay overreading, with his triple-bluff idea. Going with no-kill and trusting that the town can be prodded into lynching inactive townies has no gain that killing and prodding the town to go after inactive townies doesn't give and do better at. Surely the lurkers aren't largely in the

same

scum group. And all of the scum at once? I'm leery of assuming that the reason for the dearth of kills is mass inactivity (although I also wouldn't bet anything I cared to lose that it isn't) -- no way am I buying that the reason for no kills is mass

fake

inactivity.
4. I think even our actives are being too inactive. Myself included. POST!

[the silent speaker]

But that explanation doesn't answer why you felt it necessary to unvote when you found there wasn't a bandwagon. Granted your vote wasn't helping anything as you thought it was, but what harm was it doing? And conversely, if you felt it

was

harmful to have a vote on Jaylen, why vote him in the first place if you wanted him alive?

unvote: CoolBot, vote: Yaw.[/i] That last post looks very very spidery.

[the silent speaker]

I think that does it. Vote count?

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What second goblin death, Tigris?

[the silent speaker]

Oh? And how exactly do you know this, IS?

[the silent speaker]

This seems easy enough.

Vote: Argoti

and FOS Jaylen because why should FD be made to spill more beans than he has to?

[the silent speaker]

Ultra-cruddy roleclaim and FD contradicted his claimed results, mainly.

[the silent speaker]

He didn't say he has an investigative ability. He said he has an ability and he got a result. It doesn't have to be an investigation he got the result of.

[the silent speaker]

I've come to a small conclusion.

Vote: Gaspode

for two reasons: 1. He asked to be replaced a month ago, and hasn't been. That means, at best, he's dragging down the game by sheer dead weight, and we're better off without him. 2. He's the only living jediknight voter who didn't also vote for Argoti except for Tigris, and thus a better-than-most spider candidate. (My read on Tigris is that he's not scum, so I picked Gaspode for the vote, but I will be keeping an eye on Tigris too.)

It also looks to me like there's something going on between Yggdrasil and Yaw, but since Yaw has voted for one of every scum group we've got, I'll settle for a

FOS: Yggdrasil

for now.

[the silent speaker]

Since looking at jediknight's wagon for spiders didn't do much good, thought maybe looking in the other direction might be better. Who didn't vote jediknight, but did vote Argoti? Those might be good candidates for goblins. It turns out that only five living players weren't on the jediwagon: AndrewS (Shivan_Dragon at the time), Uraj, Willows_weep (then known as Narninian), Lord Gurgi, and Yggdrasil. Lord Gurgi can be stricken because jediknight was voting for him. Of the rest, Uraj and Ygg both were on the Argoti wagon, which (since he was a spider) it stands to reason the goblins would have been interested in furthering. (They wouldn't have known, obviously, but it would be a can't-lose situation for them, especially once he botched the role claim.)

Unvote: Gaspoditha, vote: Yggdrasil, FOS: Uraj.

[the silent speaker]

Yaw -- the reason I "defended Lord Gurgi based on jediknight's actions rather than his own" was that I didn't have any particular attacks on LG on my mind. I was taking a broader from-first-principles look and taking players off the list when something happened that contraindicated the premise of "they might be a goblin by virtue of having not voted jediknight". LG failed that test not because of having voted jedik but by virtue of jedi voting him, so he had to be noted separately. Yes, it's possible that scum voted their allies for alibis, but then we're right back to random lynches anyway. And certainly the goblins are less likely to be among the jediwagon than the argotiwagon.

[the silent speaker]

The reason is that scum really don't want to vote for their buddies, and so do it in odd ways that can be picked up.

But if they can get away with

not

voting their buddies, they will do it, for precisely this reason (and for some value of "get away with" which varies from player to player and from game to game) and therefore my reasoning is reinstated.

The mere fact that both the Jediknight and the Murk/Argoti lynches were so definitive means that your reasoning breaks down completely.

You mean, that it was so evident that they were scum? In Argoti's case, I grant you; there must have been one spider on it anyway. We've established that. But it has

not

been established that there was a goblin on jediknight's bandwagon, and at least in the absence of any better leads, I think it's at least working into. They would, as you said, have been a little reluctant to vote him, and thus the boat might have sailed without any of them safely on it.

[the silent speaker]

I think it's at least working into.

Edit: I think it's at least

looking

into. Sorry about that.

[the silent speaker]

Second edit: at least

worth looking

into. Gah.

[the silent speaker]

I'm a dwarf, Bofur to be specific.

[the silent speaker]

Unvote: Yggdrasil, vote: Quagmire

which makes by my count five of seven. Time to claim, Mr. Vietnam.

[the silent speaker]

Vote count? Also

vote: quagmire

in the off chance I'm not.

[the silent speaker]

I'll follow along with that. Especially since Uraj

was

willing to vote Argoti, known non-goblin.

Vote: Uraj.

The shooting can't be Bard's work, since Bard is already dead.

[the silent speaker]

'A' roäc? Roäc was the bird's name. What he was 'a' was a raven. I feel bad for shelper, because there really is no way he can defend against Uraj's actions and now (if he's scum) he's well and truly scrod, but I just don't buy his claim. In a way I hope he

is

a townie because then he can replace someone else if need be, but I think he's in an awful spot through no fault of anybody but perhaps Uraj and that's that. Vote stands.

[the silent speaker]

I voted based on his voting pattern -- reluctant to vote goblin jediknight when he messed up, but quick enough to vote non-goblin Argoti when

he

bungled his claim.

[the silent speaker]

Vote: Yggdrasil.

Nice to know I was right about him being scum even if I got the group wrong.

[the silent speaker]

Dain would have been a plausible claim, but two people did claim elves and got lynched for it.

[the silent speaker]

WACG? What's that stand for? Wild-assed Crazy Guess?