Mini Normal 1873 (Game Over)

[mastina]

Thirty-eighth Votecount

:

(Eighth Votecount D4)

Lexa - 2 (ThinkBig, Garmr)

Not Voting - 5 (TheRealGin-N-Tonic, Titus, Lexa, PranaDevil, shannon)

With

7

alive, it takes

4

to lynch.

Lexa is at L-2.

Day 4's deadline is Tuesday, February 28th, @ 9:00 PM PST--(expired on 2017-03-01 01:00:14).

V/LA Notices/Mod Notes:

• mastina, the moderator, is V/LA over weekends.
  
• Titus replaces Pepchoninga.
  
• ThinkBig is V/LA over weekends.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

I could have fixed the broken tags but lol lazy and dear Titus can make due and I can't wait to see what she comes up with.

[Titus]

I could have fixed the broken tags but lol lazy and dear Titus can make due and I can't wait to see what she comes up with.

Thanks. So let's establish the groundwork and procedures before determining anything.

1) Gather but do not assess reliability of claims. If you can get in without developing reads but being nice to people do that. The idea is to get data but NOT bias.
2) Get a scum lynch without a guilty. (If we don't have that, this becomes less reliable.)
3) Establish expectations.
a) There is no clear ONE SCUM ACTION. Certain things are more indicative.
b) There are actions that are more or less town indicative. For instance, being a scum wagon suggests town.
c) Aggregate these factors. Then, make a conclusion.
d) People may disagree, but the disagreement should come from the motivation of the scumteam at that point. A wrong lynch should be able to recalibrate the theory is the hope.

[Titus]

Alisae - 3 (PranaDevil, nydushermain, shannon)
XnadrojX - 2 (karnos, Alisae)
karnos - 2 (Garmr, XnadrojX)

Garmr and the three names on Alisae have major scumpoints to here, but there is little to zero chance that there are two scum on the Alisae wagon, as they'd likely jump onto X wagon

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

Spoiler: 1. Claims

1. shannon - JOAT (1-shot jailkeeper,1-shot doctor,1-shot bodyguard)
3. TheRealGin-N-Tonic - JOAT (1-shot cop, 1-shot gunsmith, 1-shot neapolitan)
5. Titus - No claim
6. Lexa - Roleblocker
8. ThinkBig - Vanilla
10. Garmr - Vanilla
13. PranaDevil - No claim

2. Scum Lynch = karnos D1, non guilty

3. Expectations stage is next?

[Titus]

karnos - 3 (Garmr, XnadrojX, TheRealGin-N-Tonic)
Alisae - 2 (PranaDevil, shannon)

Good points for Gin for swapping wagons, but do need to check to ensure not a bus.

[Titus]

Spoiler: 1. Claims

1. shannon - JOAT (1-shot jailkeeper,1-shot doctor,1-shot bodyguard)
3. TheRealGin-N-Tonic - JOAT (1-shot cop, 1-shot gunsmith, 1-shot neapolitan)
5. Titus - No claim
6. Lexa - Roleblocker
8. ThinkBig - Vanilla
10. Garmr - Vanilla
13. PranaDevil - No claim

2. Scum Lynch = karnos D1, non guilty

3. Expectations stage is next?

Yup. I'm setting them up as I go. Unless you're scum with a preplanned narrative, it's hard to establish precise expectations. Scum play changes with dynamic.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

I'm just sitting here watching and learning because this is fascinating

[Titus]

Do scum have daychat?

<<< Answered in 1546. >>>

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

Doesn't say it in the OP

<<< Except it does? >>>

[Titus]

karnos - 4 (Garmr, XnadrojX, BlueBloodedToffee, TheRealGin-N-Tonic)[/color]
All Alone - 3 (Lexa, Alisae, LicketyQuickety)
LicketyQuickety - 3 (PranaDevil, shannon, ThinkBig)

Leaning town on PranaDevil, because of the fact scum are not jumping onto karnos, yet an LQ wagon seems to be appearing. Why not just join the AA wagon. This suggests that either a) scum are splitting their votes between AA and LQ and are unsure which they want to push or b) AA is doing what scum want and scum would rather wagon LQ because his reads are objectively better at this point. The names on LQ are the same names from Alisae before. There's a wierd alliance between PranaDevil and shannon that needs prodding to see if it is organic.

[Titus]

Doesn't say it in the OP

Ok so Encryptor or no daychat.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

One could assume encryptor but Occam's Razor and I'd have to research all of Mastina's modded games to see the plausibility that she would use it.

<<< While daychat is not universally present in my prior Normal games, since it is publicly present as being in this game I can tell you that I basically will never deprive scum of daychat ever. >>>

[Titus]

karnos - 4 (Garmr, XnadrojX, BlueBloodedToffee, TheRealGin-N-Tonic)[/color]
All Alone - 4 (Lexa, LicketyQuickety, PranaDevil, ThinkBig)
ThinkBig - 2 (shannon, Alisae)

The LQ push is abandoned entirely here, with all its membership splitting onto different wagons. This should have a closer look.

[Titus]

One could assume encryptor but Occam's Razor and I'd have to research all of Mastina's modded games to see the plausibility that she would use it.

No. Bad. No assumptions.

Mine assumes I'm town but it's because I cannot filter that knowledge, although I am not seeing Pepto on this sheet, so lol if I say wierd shit.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

He literally never voted

[Titus]

karnos - 6 (Garmr, XnadrojX, BlueBloodedToffee, TheRealGin-N-Tonic, PranaDevil, ThinkBig)[/color]
All Alone - 2 (Lexa, LicketyQuickety)
ThinkBig - 2 (shannon, Alisae)
LicketyQuickety - 1 (All Alone)
XnadrojX - 1 (karnos)

Not Voting - 2 (Pepchoninga)

This ending suggests a mass bus after the scum failed to get a town wagon to counter. Although, if I'm candid, I'd suspect my slot for not even trying during this wagon. The lack of a counter = ineffective scum or lurker scum.

We have ineffective scum here and I know that because I am in the slot of lurker.

[Titus]

I'm at the end of day 1, and I'm leaning towards a Prana flip.

What was your N1 result Pine?

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

lmfao I'm Gin and Gin only

Thinkbig cop shot town conf

[Titus]

Ok, to be clear

Gin copped ThinkBig, so you universally have ThinkBig as town. Decent cop given the vote patterns and hammer on scum.

Since this is a normal and Godfather is blacklisted, we can presume that in order for ThinkBig to be scum, you MUST be his buddy or there is a third buddy for the two of you.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

I also cleared BBT, what does that lead to?

[Titus]

I also cleared BBT, what does that lead to?

I'm going in order. I'll ask for your night 2 result when I get there. I want to know what you know and when you know it to understand your vote motions on the vote counts. Right now, given I have the theory of scum being bussed, I can't quite jump on the you being town wagon yet although you do have points in that direction. You're also in my bus zone.

[Titus]

Interesting, both day 2 wagons on town, and little pressure on the backhalf of the wagon. Those wagons taking off makes horrible sense which suggests scum are promoting bad town with their bus cred.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

Got it chief

[Titus]

What result did you get on N2 exactly?