Mini 551- Mod Abandoned

[ting =)]

/confirm.

[ting =)]

Yay! I like mimes. I say we don't lynch SensFan. It'll be fun guessing what he says, just like... charades! Well, kinda. Charades with er.. words anyway, which is, um... reading. Okay, maybe it's not so fun.

vote: SensFan

[ting =)]

Sorry, just realized that put him at L-2.

unvote:SensFan

[ting =)]

Moved, ting =) gives SensFan a mostly uneaten cookie.

[ting =)]

Why fake? He doesn't really have much to gain by faking. As it is, he's the closest player to being lynched. I'd have stopped by now if I was faking.

[ting =)]

I think what SensFan is saying in post 79, is that he orignally started being able to vote only letters. (that's why he left out the mime bit that xyl put at the top of the list).

Then, he PMed the mod saying that the whole letter was thing too complicated, but was told that words would be too easy, and there wouldn't be any point in a PR.

After all that, either the mod let him have the mime thing to make things easier, or he decided to exploit a loophole since the mod never said he couldn't mime his actions.

[ting =)]

Also, SensFan is at L-2 now. One more vote on him and he could end up lynching himself if the whole first letter thing is true.

[ting =)]

Is there any chance that your unvote went something like:

Vote: SensFan

That's the latest vote/unvote that I can find from your posts(post 75). I'm going to assume that you just forgot to unvote and weren't intentionally miscounting to lead to a quicklynch...

[ting =)]

Umm.. just checked. As far as I can tell, your vote really is at SensFan, but you're right that he's still at L-3, I miscounted. *buries head in shame.

[ting =)]

How is lynching SensFan helpful to town? As far as I can tell, that's nothing more than a OMGPRS lynch. Yes, it's annoying, but he hasn't actually done anything scummy unless you can prove he's actually faking his PR.

That said, we've just spent two whole pages talking about nothing but SensFan. I'm going to

vote:xyl

You're pushing really hard for a SensFan lynch for no good reason that I can see. I don't have a clear read, but you look to me like scum going for an easy target.

[ting =)]

@ CES, xyl, jeru, elias.

Okay, I give that he hasn't contributed much, I can't quite deny that, but every townie we lynch puts us one step closer to a mafia win. I just think we need a more concrete reason to lynch someone. He hasn't done anything particularly pro-town, sure, but until he actually does something decidedly scummy, I'm against a sens lynch.

Also, I'll be out of town for a few days. I'll try to go online when I can, but no guarantees. =(

[ting =)]

@xyl - My vote on sensfan was a random vote. That's why i unvoted when i on the next post when i realized it put him dangerously close to a lynch.

@

Isn't 'not doing anything protown' scummy? At least I think it is.

Not to me. It just means that I can't be certain he's town, but I'm not willing to jump to the conclusion that he's scum just because I'm not absolutely sure he's town.

[ting =)]

mod:

It says Elias has two votes, but there's only one name next to him...

[ting =)]

Just posting to say I'm still around. I couldn't really think of anything significant to add, so I've been keeping mum so far.

[ting =)]

Just a question. SF, you can talk in third person right? Rather than just copy pasting quotes, why don't you just

Sensfan thinks that, '.............' and so he decides to vote:john doe

It'd be a lot easier than what you're doing so far, but for some reason, you've stopped doing the whole third person thing.

[ting =)]

I just read through and found out that you never third personed your thoughts, you could only mime. All the same though, why talk by using votes when just using the whole third person thing would have been easier?

[ting =)]

That was completely uncalled for. Lovo wasn't suspicious enough to warrant a vote. Besides, you were never even suspicious of Lovo to begin with. Your only thoughts on lovo were:

I'd say it's not much because Lovo may or may not be behaving scummy, but more like the sudden wind of change that's shifting the spotlight away from SF, seemingly...

Why the hammer?

vote:joubert

[ting =)]

Heh. This game got active again all of a sudden. I'm willing to bet most of the scum were on the lovo wagon. It moved too fast. The game reads to me like they tried to go for an SF lynch, but then the momentum died down, they got impatient, so they wagoned lovo instead.

There was no serious reason for the lovo lynch. At least, not reasons that would have convinced townies to push it to a lynch. I could buy a wagon of maybe 4 people on lovo as being made of townies, but the lynch happened too fast for the town to have been swayed. I'm putting my money down on joubert and xyl being scum at least. Maybe cave.

And joubert's defense in post 412 is horrible. So what if you were on the SF wagon as well? How does that justify hammering lovo? Besides, your post is more deflecting the spotlight from yourself to korts than an actual defense. I'm leaving my vote on you till you're lynch.

[ting =)]

joubert - I never had a vote on you. Ever. And no, I really don't think that hammer was justified.

[ting =)]

This is weird. I'm a roleblocker too. Can the scum's nk be roleblocked? If we have an all roleblocker, and we all roleblocked someone, then posting who we roleblocked and looking at who wasn't roleblocked should reveal who might be scum.

[ting =)]

I'd just like to re-ask:

Is the mafia nk blockable?

[ting =)]

Another question:

If the scum nk is blockable, then do you have to block all the scum in order for the block to work, or just one of the scum?

[ting =)]

If player 1 blocks player 2 who blocks player 3, do both player 2 and 3 get blocked, or does only player 2 get blocked?

[ting =)]

Forget that question, I just read the first post.

[ting =)]

I don't think that we should have posted our targets. At this point, scum could just fake-claim roleblocker and say that they blocked that person too.

Circular blocking won't work. By khel's rules in post 1, every other person at the end of a line ending with a non-roleblocker(fakeblocker or scum or vanilla) will not block.

[ting =)]

@jeru. I don't support a mass claim. It's bad enough that we had to narrow the field down for the scum by a large number of people claiming roleblocker. You could argue that the PRs are exposed enough already that it won't matter, but I disagree.

Also, we can't figure out anything from the pattern in circular blocking. Nothing in the mod posts indicate whose blocks worked. You won't be able to deduce anything from having everyone forming a circle and blocking.

[ting =)]

I like Xyl's plan so far. It won't help us find mafia though. Stay alive, yes. Find, no.

Also, there's something else. After lynching, we have an odd number of players. One player will not be paired. That makes for two cases where it won't work, but still the best plan so far I think.

[ting =)]

Sensfan would be right if the mafia have roleblockers. Otherwise, the scum can't block whoever is blocking their nk-er. Can we assume that since we're all mostly roleblockers, the scum are all goons?

[ting =)]

I like cavebear's plan the most so far.

I propose we use random.org to decide pairings and who gets unpaired. That or we take votes like korts suggested. I don't like how ces made himself unpaired. Also, I think we need to keep SF alive. A lot of d2 discussion already stated how he's probably cop so I won't repeat the arguments. If we don't believe that SF is cop, we have no sure way to catch scum whichever plan we use. We'll just be stalling the game permanently.

[ting =)]

That or we take votes like korts suggested.

What I'm against is any one person or small group deciding the pairings. I think the unpaired person should be chosen by vote. For the others, we'll mostly be choosing at random among ourselves anyway. Random assignment guarantees no scum can make a suggestion that pairs him with his buddy.

[ting =)]

I've been rereading, and I'm willing to believe that both Korts and CES are town. I propose we lynch Jeru and make 2 pairing plans. If Jeru turns out scum, we pair ourselves and leave SF free so he can investigate. If Jeru turns out town, we leave either Korts or CES free and have the other block SF to prevent a nightkill.

I don't think we should lynch SF because like everyone's already said, we have more to lose by lynching him, and more to gain by keeping him alive if he's cop. It's better to confirm him by lynching Jeru.

Also, we'll never agree with each other on the pairings if we all make suggestions. I think we should let either CES or Korts decide, since everyone's more or less agreed that they're both town.

[ting =)]

I agree that, if the odds of me being scum were the same as SF being scum, that you have more to lose by lynching the claimed cop, but in the situation we're in, it's simply preposterous not to lynch him today. Do actually read the thread and deal with the information we have at our disposal. The odds are far from equal. Do I have to say it again - PR IN A MINI-NORMAL DOES NOT HAPPEN. Period. Honestly, I'm going to spend some time looking through the rules and see if it's even permitted.

I'm willing to believe it actually. As it is, more than HALF the players are town roleblockers. That alone makes the town powerful, especially since we ended up finding out right after day 1. At the moment, we as the town already have the power to permanently whack the mafia nk ability.

It only makes sense that if we have any other role, like a cop, he'd have to be at some sort of disadvantage. The town would be way over powered otherwise. Heck, even cop-less we're already more powerful than town in other games.

Also, just to bring up an old argument, SF as scum would have no reason to fake a PR. As it is, it pushed him to the spotlight and made him the easy day 1 lynch. Not a very good job as scum if he really is scum.

[ting =)]

Oh, also, if you turn up town and SF is in fact lying scum, the moment we block each other in pairs, we'll end up locking him and the rest of the scum. No one else will die from nk. We'll be able to just pick everyone apart day 3, and plan night blocking strategies so that we'll either keep the scum permanently in stasis, or make it so that they can't nk without raising a red flag.

[ting =)]

Regardless, the odds of a cop being in this game are precisely zero. It's already broken enough, Khel wouldn't completely break it.

I disagree. Besides what cavebear said about other roles unbreaking the game, I think that SF having a PR is to his favor. He has nothing to gain faking it, and there'd be no reason for a scum or a vanilla to have a PR.

@cave - I blocked joubert too.

I disagree about the no lynch. I think we need to lynch jeru, just to make it an odd number and also to confirm SF. I'm with cave that there's a possibility that SF is scum bussing Jeru, but I don't think so. Jeru wasn't under that much flak day1. If SF is scum, he just makes it worse for his team to put Jeru under the spotlight.

we pair who we collectively think is scummiest with the one we collectively think is least likely to be scum,

Also, I disagree with this. This is the reason I considered random assignment as viable. If we all throw in our ideas on the pairings, it's possible that a scum might make a suggestion to pair himself with another scum, and that would screw us over. I'd rather doing it randomly than collectively deciding, but I've been swayed to the opinion that either Korts or CES should do the pairing.

[ting =)]

@CES. Why would you rather lynch SF than Jeru? You can make assumptions on the other's alignment regardless of who we lynch.

We need a concensus of whether we lynch Jeru or SF. Any plan we make won't work if we can't even agree who to lynch. Jeru, by your own reasons, we'd still win anyway if we lynch you and you're town.

[ting =)]

@ces. I'm sorry, but I just don't see it. Maybe it's because I don't have that much experience playing with SF or maybe just experience in general, but I don't see how you're so certain he's scum.

@jou. I say most-townish-choose. I only brought up random because I prefer it over the thought of everyone getting a say.

[ting =)]

Vote: O
Vote: O
Vote: P
Vote: S

Vote: J
Vote: E
Vote: R
Vote: U

Vote: G
Vote: U
Vote: I
Vote: L
Vote: T
Vote: Y

Hmm.. That's much more likely to me, at least.

K, so we lynch Jerub. That'd leave 9 of us. 4 pair, with SF being the odd man out. Even though I still don't believe him, I guess this is the best course of action.

When did you change your mind, and why CES?

[ting =)]

Modnote: No

[ting =)]

Oh, also, for reference, the night blocks, if no one lied, are:

ces blocked elias
korts blocked ces
xyl blocked korts
imat blocked elias
jeru blocked joubert
joub blocked imat
cave blocked jou
ting blocked jou
shanba blocked ???

Existing chains:
xyl blocked korts blocked ces blocked elias = elias blocked by ces
[jeru,ting,cave] blocked joub blocked imat blocked elias = elias blocked by imat.

-------

To the people who prefer an SF lynch,

assuming

3 scum, the current ratio of town to scum is 7:3. If we lynch jeru and find that he's town, we can lynch SF d3, and end up with a ratio of 6:2, or 3:1 if you simplify.

3:1 is still a better ratio than 7:3 if we mislynch today. Also, with 6 townies and 2 scum d3, we can afford to make up to 4 mislynches since we can perma block the nk. That gives us very good odds even if SF is lying and we believe him for today.

[ting =)]

Oh, I'll be gone for 2 days. I'll check in again Monday.

[ting =)]

mod:

sorry, I didn't know that would count as quoting.

If Jerubbaal isn't scum:
SensFan - Xylthixlm

If Jeru isn't scum, then SF is most likely scum. I'd rather he be paired with either korts or ces, then we lynch him d3. I don't want to risk an nk.

Modnote: Fixed formatting

[ting =)]

So... I had pizza for dinner today.

[ting =)]

Meat lovers.

I'm not comfortable with calling CESc as closed-to-confirmed just based on him guessing at an all-RB setup earlier than most. In fact, if Jerub is scum, I'd think of him as scummier-looking than most. Also, I don't want to see any of the trio of CESc, Xyl and Joubert in the same pairs. Other than that, I think most pairs would be fine.

Yes. I've actually been rereading CES's posts. I don't think he's as town as korts is, but I think an rb would have been more likely to have picked it up than a scum would've.

I had suspicions of xyl day 1, and still do, but he was the first to actually claim rb. At the point when xyl claimed, there was no clear indication yet that we had an all rb setup. It could be the scum have safe claims, or maybe with 2 rb's dead and korts claiming, xyl figured it would be a safe enough claim to make. I don't know.

I had my vote on Joubert as soon as I saw him hammering, and am still suspicious. For reference, the people on the lovo wagon were:

joubert, korts, xyl, cave, sens, shanba.

We probably should not forget about them. Except for korts and sens.

[ting =)]

Wait, that looks weird. I only count 6 people. Is there anyone else who was on the lovo wagon? I've spent the past couple of minutes doing a ctrl+f search on everyone's posts. Am I missing someone's vote?

[ting =)]

Yes, you voted xyl. Lovo only had 6 votes on him at the peak of his wagon unless I'm mistaken. That confuddles me. Will this affect the game or do we just play on?

Actually the precise quote of CESc is "@ Korst: Are you a roleblocker too?" This, to my mind, doesn't quite sound like he (CESc) is RB, but that he wants to find out if I'm a roleblocker like lovo was. He isn't implying, as far as I can tell, an all-RB setup, just that there could be multiple roleblockers. I don't think CESc is really confirmed with this.

Yes, I took his post as fishing for your role, not him implying that he is also a roleblocker. That's why I still think you're the towniest, but picking it up seems like something an rb would be more likely to do. I still think CES might be town though. His not believing lovo's claim after he was hammered was what I was thinking, and is similar to you going, 'Actually, lovo, I'm a little surprised by your claim. I mean, you must be telling the truth, no need to lie anymore, so I'm not saying I doubt you, just, you know, surprised. '

I've been rereading everyone's post lovo-lynch posts.

Also, I have previously pointed out that I suspect CESc and Xyl the most along with jerubbaal, and now I've looked at Xyl's pairings again, this reinforces me in the belief that they are scum, at least two of the three of them. If you notice, Xyl has himself paired with CESc in the event of SF being Cop, and has CESc unpaired and himself blocking SF in the event of SF turning up scum. Sorry I didn't notice this earlier, I just skimmed through the pairings.

Yes. I thought it was funny that you agreed with Xyl's pairings, that's why I mentioned that I didn't want xyl paired with SF, but you didn't seem to have a problem with it.

I think Xyl's a bright guy, it would've been fairly easy to guess that the town wouldn't mind a fourth RB after lovo, Elias and me.

Yes, but Xyl claimed for himself and CES, that's 5 RBs. That's nearly half the town, he'd be pushing his luck as scum claiming rb on a guess that we might all be rbs. If he's scum, then it's either the scum have been given safe claims, or they all decided to claim rb n1.

-----------

Your pairings are... odd. If Jeru comes out town, SF would automatically go to the top of the scummy list, no? Does that mean you think Shanba is the town-iest? I would have paired him with you, or maybe CES. Why Shanba?

[ting =)]

Yes, then shouldn't you pair yourself with SF if Jeru turns out town? He'd be as close to confirmed scum as you can get, he should be paired with the most obviously town player.

[ting =)]

Right, but do you want the second most town left unblocked? I think that's open to interpretation. However you want it, I'm fine as long as CESc, Xyl and Joubert don't go in the same pair. I mean, any two of them.

Why do you think Shanba is 2nd most town?
You do realize that you're risking an nk by putting SF with a player who may or may not be town right? Am I missing something about Shanba?

[ting =)]

That's not my point. No, I have no reason to suspect Shanba, but there's no way I'm certain that Shanba is town. You, with your slip, look like the most obvious townie, but you're willing to risk an nk by pairing a confirmed scum with someone whose alignment you have no way to be sure of.

We need to agree on pairings. I don't think it's optimal, but I'm willing to take Korts' pairings because I think he's town. I can't see his post as being a calculated drop. Does anyone object?

[ting =)]

As naive as this may sound, I will trust your pairings, if only because I'm sure you will not intentionally pair anyone you consider scum. All this is moot if no one else agrees though.

[ting =)]

Hold on, if we're going to go with voting Jeru and with Korts' plan, everyone has to check in before he's lynched. We don't want to run the risk of people being inactive and not sending in their night actions.

[ting =)]

On yet another matter, why don't I make the pairings for the situation in which I come up town...

Korts unpaired
CES - SF
Shanba-Xyl
Joubert-Ting
Imat-Cavebear

This sounds really townish I'm getting doubts about lynching you, but I still think it's the correct play given the circumstances. I agree with going with your pairings if you turn up town.

[ting =)]

It's only the correct play if you still refuse to see how the odds of SF being town are absolutely nil. I'm glad someone is actually still reading the thread, though, instead of just blindly following this "oh gosh, we can't lynch a claimed cop" line of thinking.

It's still the correct play even if the odds of him being cop are low. Worse case is we exchange a townie for scum, which is still better than our current situation. As much has already been said before though.

Personally, going into day 2 I was suspicious of Joubert, Xyl and CES the most, in that order.

[ting =)]

mod:

Could you prod everyone? It's been a while. Is everyone good with a jeru lynch and then going with Korts' pairings if he comes out scum and Jeru's if he turns out town?

I count only cavebear and myself saying yes. Korts just asked for replacement.

[ting =)]

This is ridiculous. The game

will

stall. It's

already

stalling. We need to do something. Do you have a different suggestion?

[ting =)]

COP DOES NOT HELP A TOWN WIN HERE!!!

Why?

[ting =)]

Jeru, is right.

If

we have three confirmed town, 2 scum, and the ability to block nk, it's an auto town win. So, best case scenario for lynching SF is a win.

But you're not seeing, that if we lynch you, best case scenario is a confirmed cop and the ability to block nk. It's also an auto win at best case.

Convince me with something else, because at worse case if we lynch SF, we're trading a cop for a scum, which is

bad

. Worse case if we lynch you is we're trading one roleblocker for one scum, which is

good

.

I'd also like an answer to:

COP DOES NOT HELP A TOWN WIN HERE!!!

Why?

-------------

Scum bussing scum at this point is pretty much auto-lose for them, so it's ridiculous to consider.

No, I considered that, scum bussing scum would be the worse thing possible for us. Especially since you just said:

Similarly, after we lynch SF, I'll be confirmed.

and you've just been calling yourself confirmed town. If we lynch one of you who manages to turn up scum, since it'd be an 'auto win' we'd be pretty much putting the game into your hands or SF's hands, which would be disastrous if you're both scum.

-------------

I'm willing to read people, take the information we have in the thread and draw conclusions. That's kinda, ya know, playing mafia. Maybe you should try, instead of just barning everything someone else says in this thread.

Honestly, being snarky isn't going to help you.

If

you were scum, this is exactly what we'd expect you to do - try and trade yourself off for a cop before dying, and belittling people isn't going to help you convince them.

If

SF is scum, this is also what I'd expect him to be doing, try and trade himself off for one other person before he's lynched. Which is why I'm asking you questions instead of just voting.

[ting =)]

The mafia would know this, and they likely have a roleblocker too.

Why do you say this? Do you think it likely that all the players, town and scum, are roleblockers?

---------

Also:

SF first called guilty on Joubert. Then you asked:

Is this your result?

and then:

Vote: O
Vote: O
Vote: P
Vote: S

Vote: J
Vote: E
Vote: R
Vote: U

Vote: G
Vote: U
Vote: I
Vote: L
Vote: T
Vote: Y

Hmm.. That's much more likely to me, at least.

I want to know why you think SF having a guilty on Jeru was more likely than SF having a guilty on Joubert. It's the same post I brought up last time, but different question.

[ting =)]

The cop is redundant.

You might as well call having 3 confirmed townies redundant. 'Well, we already auto-win with a confirmed cop, there's no point having 3 confirmed townies.' Also, I'm with cave, unkillable confirmed cop>3 confirmed townies for best case scenario. They're both autowins, but a cop is in no way unhelpful.

You have me convinced on SF not bussing you. At most he'll only get in two extra kills, a mislynch and a nightkill. That wouldn't help scum.

you're placing it in the hands of the confirmed townies, who would be myself, CES, and Korts (if he's still here).

The autowin with 3 townies is only true

if

you three are all actually confirmed townies. When we make plans for blocking, you'll all be treated as confirmed, and if one of you are actually scum, it'd be disastrous.

and they have two left, town pretty much wins, just as jerub says.

Not quite I think. Jeru's plan would work because confirmed townies outnumber scum in his scenario (3>2). With only 2 confirmed townies and 2 scum, the scum could hypothetically still win. It's not an auto win, but yes, we'd have really good odds anyway.

------------

Jeru, SF: who do you two think are the three people most likely to be scum?

[ting =)]

I still feel that a jeru lynch is the correct play, but I'm leaning towards SF being the better lynch. It's ridiculous how fast the lovo wagon grew. It's what I would expect if SF was scum. I don't have time now, but I'll go and make a comparison later between the people on the lovo wagon and the people on the SF wagon. I'm assuming the scum might be the people who switched from the SF wagon to the lovo wagon, but I don't have the time now to read up.

[ting =)]

[quote="jeru] If SF is the better lynch, how the heck is lynching me still the correct play?[/quote]

We've gone back and forth on this. If we lynch correctly, it's an auto win either way, but:

...at worst case if we lynch SF, we're trading a cop for a scum, which is bad. Worst case if we lynch you is we're trading one roleblocker for one scum, which is good.

I've asked you about this before, but you didn't reply to it when I brought it up last time. I think I worded my last post badly though, maybe I should rephrase: I think the correct thing to do would be to lynch Jeru, but I'm leaning towards lynching SF because I think he's more likely to turn up scum.

-----

You've said what I had on my mind about the lovo/SF wagons. I still don't have time to look deeper, but that's the gist of what I'm thinking about.

-----

I'm thinking about how viable a no lynch would be, or what would happen if we lynched someone else instead. We can't lynch anyone unless we can all agree on the night blockings.

------

Oh, and just to repeat:

SF, who do you think are the scum?

[ting =)]

No, no Korts you misunderstood me. Let me rephrase: While I feel that lynching Jeru is the correct play, I'm leaning towards lynching SF because I feel he's the better lynch.

-------
@Jeru.
No lynch

is

a viable option, if we go with Cave's original plan.

We pair all the players and leave Korts and SF free. If there's an nk, we lynch SF. We make SF investigate

everyone

. If he doesn't turn up guilty results, we lynch SF. Once he's done investigating everyone and has three guiltys, we lynch SF.

If he turns out cop, then we trust his results and lynch all his guiltys - win. If he turns out scum, then it'll be just like if we lynch him now, which is what you want anyway.

Besides the obvious drawback that it'll take a while to carry out, a no lynch works for both you and SF. I haven't decided yet if I think it's the best option, but I'm not disregarding a no lynch as a possible move. I'm not disregarding lynching someone else either.

[ting =)]

I'm with CES, which is why I changed my opinion really - Jerub seems townlier. I've only suspected him because of SF's guilty claim, but I'm starting to think that SF is looking scummier.

-----
@Jeru.

What makes you so sure there'll be a night kill on a no lynch Jeru? It's been argued before - we can block the nks unless two scum are paired together, or a scum is free. If we let the townliest player decide the blockings instead of giving our own input, we minimize the chances of scum being paired because they cannot affect the pairings.

If someone gets nk'd then, we'll lynch SF which is trading one scum for one roleblocker, which is a pretty good trade as far as I'm concerned - and it's the same trade as if we lynch you now and then SF if you're not lying.

---------
@cave.

Yes, I'm actually liking the sound of a no lynch more and more. I can't see any major reasons not to do it, while the reasons against either a jeru or sf lynch have been argued to a large extent already.

Also, if a no lynch was not originally your idea, I apologize. I thought you were the first to suggest it, I should have reread to make sure before putting your name down, just in case.

[ting =)]

@Imat and BM.

It's a compromise decision. I've posted my reasons before, but in summary of why it's good:

If SF really is cop - no lynch will prevent nks, and SF will be free to investigate. We block for 8 consecutive nights until SF has a read on everyone. Then, we lynch him. He will turn out cop so we'll know that his results are accurate. We lynch the people with guiltys.

If Jeru really is a roleblocker -

it's the exact same result in the end.

Like Jeru said, the final outcome is the same as if we lynch Jeru now and then SF later - same results, so Jeru has nothing to lose really.

So basically, it's not just delaying the game - it's the best of both scenarios. My problem with lynching SF is that we might lose a cop before he gets a chance to investigate everyone. This way we don't. My problem with lynching Jeru is that I've recently started thinking that he might be town.

-------

@cave.

I wasn't proposing no lynching for just one day. A jeru lynch would be better. I'm proposing blocking until SF has a result on everyone. Also, if we no lynch, we leave Korts and SF free, not pair Korts with Jeru.

I'm willing to assume that Korts is town, so that would mean that any nk will be due to SF. On the off-chance that SF is cop but an nk happens anyway, that would mean that two scum are paired with each other. That means that either Jeru and whoever is paired with him are both scum - we end up with two confirmed scum, or Jeru is scum paired with a genuine roleblocker and the other two scum are paired with each other.

In the case of the latter, our job is still easier because after lynching Jeru and mislynching the person with him, we can look at everyone else in pairs instead of individually.

[ting =)]

@Korts.

, SF can still be scum without making an NK, expecting the town to give him a free pass from thereon. Lynching jerubbaal is a much better way of confirming SF's claim.

No, he doesn't get a free pass. After he's investigated everyone we

still lynch him.

If he's scum, he dies. If he's cop, he's done his job by investigating everyone and we can go with his guilty results.

Whoever we lynch, whenever we lynch, we confirm the whole jeru/sf thing.

@Cave.
If we no lynch, pair everyone up and leave SF and one other free and an nk occurs, there are 4 possibilities.

1. SF is scum.
2. Two scum are paired with each other. SF is cop.
3. The other unpaired person is scum.
4. SF and the other unpaired person are both scum.
5. SF is scum. The other 2 scum are also unpaired.

Taking Korts as town, if we leave him and SF free, we know for sure that 3 and 4 can't be possible. Basically, having a confirmed town be unpaired with SF allows us to be sure that any nk is due to SF.

You mentioned the possiblity of 2 when you said:

If someone dies however, there's still a chance of SF being cop..

Which is why I said:

On the off-chance that SF is cop but an nk happens anyway, that would mean that two scum are paired with each other. That means that either Jeru and whoever is paired with him are both scum - we end up with two confirmed scum, or Jeru is scum paired with a genuine roleblocker and the other two scum are paired with each other.

We will end up lynching SF. At this point, we will have two investigations, Jeru, and SF's n2 investigate. He will turn up cop so we know it's true. If he investigated scum, good for us. If he investigated town, we'll know that the nk was not due to his investigatee, or the person he blocked. Either way, we'll lynch scum, and we narrow down the list for the other 2 by a nice margin - especially since we know they're paired.

[ting =)]

mod:

could you prod SF?

[ting =)]

Nearly 3am here, so I'll make this short. Don't lynch anyone yet. Also, I'm not too sure about the whole break PR thing. In light of khelv's post:

Worse case: SF is being honest and dies. We lose a cop. We lynch Jeru.
Best case: Khelv says nothing.

We're still in the same position.

We have nothing to gain from SF breaking his PR. I do agree this day has gone on long enough though. I don't think we should lynch until everyone has checked in and agreed on the pairings though. I will be very suspicious, if anyone says anything about blocking the wrong person or forgetting to submit a night action come day 3.

[ting =)]

@cave.
There's still discussion going on. I'll vote when I'm either very confident on my choice, or when there's no more discussion.

My current stand:
Don't make SF break his PR.
Don't lynch Jeru.

[ting =)]

There's still:
No lynch.
Lynch SF.
Lynch someone else.

I realize that Jeru will probably get lynched, but I'm not going to help push his lynch along.

[ting =)]

@cave.
I did already. I'd still like a no-lynch best, and then an SF lynch. There's already been a really long back and forth on all that though, so right now I'll be happy with any plan that involves lynching someone soon.

[ting =)]

Break PR.

Joubert's reaction to the PR break swayed me.

[ting =)]

Hey EG!

[ting =)]

The mod said he'll either modkill SF, or say nothing about it.

[ting =)]

I'm not sure whether or not to buy it, but I won't support his lynch. The mod already said he wouldn't do anything that would outright confirm him. I'd like to resuggest a no lynch.

Seriously, why not? We no lynch for 7 days until SF has a result or otherwise. We verify if they're true by lynching him after the 7th day. If he's cop, he's done his job already, so no biggie. If he's scum, then it'd be just like if we lynch him now except that we took a longer while to get there. There's no big downside to it, why don't we do it?

[ting =)]

@CES.
I know, but there's no reason we can't be cautious. Whether it's SF lying or jeru, it covers all our bases. It's not like we're under a time limit.

[ting =)]

@Shanba.
Yes, I think that'd be best.

@Jeru.
No, he never said he'd die. We assumed we would because the mod said he

might

be modkilled, after BM brought up the possibility. Also, yes. We would lose a townie. We lynch SF the next day and up with a 6:2 ratio.

From there we continue on with your plan of having more confirmed towns than scum and lynch everyone one by one while blocking the nightkill. If there's a night kill, we'll know the scum are paired and look at the pairs without you and korts. If there's no night kill, we just carry on lynching.

[ting =)]

I'm opposed to a no lynch largely because the blocks are that much harder; the risk of scum going unblocked is quite high simply because someone is left unpaired. The risk, of course, being that SF could be cop and there would still be a kill and we would then lynch SF.

Yes, we'd be leaving two people unpaired, SF and one other. I'm proposing Korts be the other unpaired, as I think he's town. Also, yes - if there's an nk, we'd be lynching SF next, but for that to happen, it would mean that one of the pairs is made up of two scum. So, after we lynch SF, we look at the pairings to find an easy pair of scum.

@CES.
If no nks happen, SF will

still

be the first person we lynch. It wouldn't be much different than if we lynch him now, except that we'd be having more info before we actually lynch him.

That's, I think, a reasonably sound pairing. If you have any objections, glad to hear them.

Er, yes, like cave said, your pairings don't work. You need to leave two people unpaired - SF and one other - you. The rest get paired. You can still keep the pairings you mentioned, but you shouldn't block jeru. That way, the remaining 8 players are all paired.

He probably SHOULD have mentioned the part about him not being able to be modkilled.

SF, why didn't you mention earlier that you wouldn't get modkilled no matter what? Or did you, and I missed it in my reread?

None of us knew what would happen if he broke his PR. All we got from Khel was that he'd either be modkilled, or he'd do nothing. I don't think SF knew either.

It's so ridiculously clear that SF can't prove anything, and there's no way in heck I'll be happy letting him go to night. It ends up being the exact same scenario as lynching me. I really don't understand why all of you are so outright convinced that he can't possibly be anything but a cop.

I already said I'm more inclined to believe you over SF. That doesn't mean I'm not going to be cautious. Yes, it might end up the same scenario as lynching you.

If that happens though, I'm sure you can see that 1 scum for 1 roleblocker is a good trade-off for town seeing as how there's only 3 scum and we have 7 roleblockers to spare. He can't kill without confirming he's scum.

[ting =)]

@Jeru.
Yes, he might. That would make you confirmed town right away though, taking the place of whoever he kills. After we lynch him, we end up with 2 confirmed and 2 scum. With no nks, it'd be pretty hard to lose as town.

[ting =)]

You're extremely against it CES. Why? What's so horrible about a nolynch that you don't even consider it an option? Unless the possible outcome leaves the town devoid of any chance of winning, I don't see why it can't be an option.

[ting =)]

Yes, I've mentioned that before. There are only 2 ways an nk can happen.

1. SF is scum.
We lynch him the next day.

2. 2 scum are paired together.
That leaves us with SF, Korts, 3 pairs, 1 person whose pair got nk'd. The pair with CES probably didn't make the night kill. The person whose partner got nk'd didn't make the night kill either. That leaves 2 pairs. 1 lynch will tell us whether that pair is clear. If that pair is clear, then we've caught 2 scum - the other pair.

If SF is telling the truth, which is what you're worried about, this plan actually makes the most use of his cop role. Lynching SF now obviously kills him. Lynching Jeru now is something I'd rather not do unless I'm certain.

If you don't like a no lynch, what do you suggest? I'm willing to change my mind if a better plan pops up.

[ting =)]

Mistake? Maybe. A large mistake? No. We get one nk at worse, which will reveal a lot more information than we currently have on the table. What's funny is that both Jeru and cave never made that big a deal about a no lynch - as long as a different plan was more likely to happen.

vote:no lynch

If SF is cop, I'd think Jeru, Cave and CES are scum.
If SF is scum, I'd think SF, Joubert and Xyl are scum.

Whichever one it is, or even if my guesses are all wrong, an nk will tell us at least one scum, or all.

------------

Frankly, I don't consider the option where we keep SF and he investigates everyone and they're the scum and we just win as realistic, that seems way too easy.

Ease of victory is not a disqualifying criteria for lynch options. Even if we lynch either Jeru or SF, the win will still be pretty easy because we've found we're all roleblockers so early in the game.

[ting =)]

For now. We aren't going to no lynch forever you know. We

will

lynch eventually.

[ting =)]

Yes, I'm thinking Korts. I think he's the closest to confirmed town we've got. If an nk happens, we can be fairly sure it's not from Korts and must be from either SF or a pair.

This reminds me, Korts, you need new pairings. It has to be 4 pairs blocking each other and then 2 people unpaired. The last one had an incomplete triangle thing.

@Joub.
Triangles won't work. If,
A blocks B blocks C blocks A - and C is scum, the chain would go:

Roleblocker A --> Roleblocker B --> Scum.

A will neutralize B's block. Effectively, the scum is unblocked.

The longer a chain, the more likely it is to mess up somewhere.

@CES.
Sure, but the other unpaired person has to be the towniest player. I agree about townish players being paired with scummish players, but we should leave deciding who falls under which category to korts. He's the only player I think anyone would be willing to trust the blocking plans to.

[ting =)]

@Korts.
Yes, a repost would be nice.

@Cave.
Yes, an odd number would be ideal. That's why I was considering lynching someone besides Jeru and SF, since we know that one of them is bound to be town. If we lynch someone else, we could just proceed with no lynching from there on. I think it wouldn't be a bad idea, but no one seems pretty keen on it. On second thought, it might be better than a no lynch, but I don't think I'll be able to rally support for it.

[ting =)]

Yes, we need to wait. I'm waiting for CES' thoughts on why a no lynch is bad, and what he proposes we do instead. I'm willing to change my mind about the no lynch, but right now I don't think I'll be comfortable with lynching either of Jeru or SF day 1. Also, yes Joubert is one of the 3 others I'd consider lynching. The thing is, we'd first need to have a discussion on whether lynching someone else is a viable option, and then another discussion on who we should lynch.

[ting =)]

but it just seems inferior to the option of lynching jerub or SF right away.

Both a no lynch and lynching someone else aren't just options for stalling on deciding between SF and Jeru. Continuous no lynching is pretty much just an SF lynch, but after maximizing possible information. Lynching someone else, to me, is as much about creating an odd number to facilitate no lynching as lynching scum.

I've been trying to convince myself that a lynch on either SF or Jeru, but I can only see one reason for lynching Jeru or SF over a no lynch, and it's not enough to change my mind.

[ting =)]

Whoa. I didn't notice that.

mod:

could we have a deadline extension? The game hasn't stalled, there's still discussion going on.

[ting =)]

number crunching ftw. go maths.

I think a joubert lynch would be good, but not viable today. That's 3 of us for it, but we just don't have the time to bring in everyone.

If no one objects to my suggestion: I propose SF investigate cavebear. He's a logical choice for a jeru partner, if jeru is scum. If an nk happens but SF is for real and survives the night, we've caught two scum after we lynch SF tomorrow.

[ting =)]

I know it's directing the cop, that's why I said:

If no one objects

Because I tried to get him lynched pretty much all day

Sure, because the claimed cop has a guilty on him. >_> What makes me suspicious of you is your stand on the no-lynch. If SF really is cop, a no lynch would out not just Jeru, but also the rest of the scum.

There's only two things for the scum to do: oppose it with all they've got, or follow along and hope something screws up. CES is doing the former. You hopped between the two.

[ting =)]

That person would be the obvious target tonight.

Oh. I didn't consider that. I was thinking they'd go for either Korts or SF. You're right though, scum knowing who the cop would investigate is bad.

[ting =)]

^yes.

CES? SF?

[ting =)]

Edit to setups, maybe. Not to whatever pairings he chooses to go with though. None of us should try to influence his pairs. It'd be too easy to for scum to manipulate things in such a way that he gets paired with a buddy.

[ting =)]

Oh. That reminds me: We still don't have a BM replacement. We can't go into night yet.

Also, our mod hasn't posted on the site since May 15th.

[ting =)]

BM is still active on the site and still hasn't officially been replaced. On the off-chance he's scum, treating him like he's not around and leaving him unpaired...

[ting =)]

[quote="ting]Also, our mod hasn't posted on the site since May 15th.[/quote]
This is one of my first games on this site. What's the protocol when something like this happens?

[ting =)]

Oh.

There's no backup mod listed on the front page.

[ting =)]

Well, since we're being honest, I wouldn't be that bothered if this ended. I took in a bit more games than I had time for when i first signed up, and none of the minis have ended yet. Besides, this game isn't really mafia anymore.

[ting =)]

I honestly thought one of the big mods would end it after it turned out that lovo was prematurely lynched. It hardly seems fair to lovo that the game went on.

[ting =)]

Lovo got lynched without having the majority of votes. He was only at L-1 when it happened. I mentioned it somewhere in one of my posts quite a while back when day 2 started.

@joub.
I'm fine with long mafia games. If you really want to play, I wouldn't mind hanging on if you can convince/replace the rest.

[ting =)]

Wait - game's not officially ended yet, k.

I'm not sure, but shouldn't one of the big mod people declare the game finished first?

[ting =)]

[quote="khelvaster]You are a very chatty and charismatic person. In fact, you were a former phone-sex operator. As such, you can call one house per night. If you are successful, you will talk the night away to whomever you decide to call, effectivelly occupying them so much that they forget they needed to go do something that night, if they did need to do something.

You are a roleblocker. You win with the town. You can choose one person per night. If they are doing a night action, you will block them.[/quote]

Actually... you might have won. The worse possibility in this scenario was scum bussing. After we lynched SF, you would have been completely suspicion free. After that, you could just arrange yourself with xyl at night and nk the confirmeds. With you as the only confirmed and with nks happening, we wouldn't have figured that xyl was also mafia.

[ting =)]

That's not my original PM. That is one that the Mod sent me, when I asked for it to be resent, having had BM ask me why I was bussing the GF.

oh.

An sk huh? Hmmm. I wonder how that would have played out.