Mini 559 - Cult Mafia again - Game over

[Elias_the_thief]

vote: omg_im_innocent_wtf

because we have history.

[Elias_the_thief]

yo dawg. whats choppin?

[Elias_the_thief]

ugh. dont feel like commenting on all that stuff from OMG at present. I can back up his claim of not random voting though, ive played with him twice before.

[Elias_the_thief]

Hi. for clarification, I wasnt actually attacking OMG at all, just mentioning that I didnt feel like reading that at the time. Currently I'm dealing with my idiot brothers rampage with my account while I was out of town.

[Elias_the_thief]

hopefully not. I wont be leaving it on "log me in automatically" anymore. He also made an alt account thats elias the th

ei

f, so watch out for that.

[Elias_the_thief]

hmm. Lotsa stuff to look over. For one, I dont believe that overdefensiveness is a scumtell, first of all. Second, I would agree that OMG wasnt overdefensive, though maybe a bit preemptively defense. Overall, hes still pretty active so for now he seems town to me. The vote on Reyo seems weak to me. I can see a townie asking that question because it forces the player hes asking to take a solid stance on an issue, which makes reading said player easier late in the game.

[Elias_the_thief]

I understand the basic idea, and maybe defensive wasnt the right word. I dunno, you just seem like youre posting a lot more than you need to, almost like an overcompensation. I cant nail it down.

Regardless, I said I'm not suspicious of you. The more important part of my post earlier was the part refuting your suspicion of Reyo. Thats what I'd like a comment on.

[Elias_the_thief]

at that point i had already informed reyo that she had misunderstood my post, either through my post not being clear enough or her misreading it.

from there she continued to push a point she knew was incorrect in order to push suspicion on me further. there is no question because she knew at that point the latter part of her question was irrefutably correct, unless she hasnt been bothering to pay attention to the thread at all.

thus the question was only aimed for pushing suspicion on me and was not genuine at all.

she already knew your point...she was asking someone else to take a stand. it is totally irrelevant whether she knew how she would have answered, the question was still meant to force another to take a stand on an issue. Im not saying its necessarily town, but what about it is scummy?

[Elias_the_thief]

Elias, is he like this all the time? You two have history, right?

no, hes changed some. before he got impatient and tired of town really quickly, and basically just swore at people (this was as town). And I apparently got really pissed at him, reading the old games. Ironically, thats kind of my style now, though not to the same extent. But yeah, hes definately a bit different in this game, either because of time away from the site or because of him being scum this time.

[Elias_the_thief]

ok consider this, i post the following question:

"elias, please comment on whether you think reyo is scum based on the fact that she claimed scum 2 pages ago?"

the thing is that she never did claim scum 2 pages ago. the question is loaded and based on a false premise. it only serves to encourage you to think she is scum, based on false information.

1) thats different, because a claim is something set in stone while overdefensiveness is something completely subjective.

2) thats different because reyo never implied you were overdefensive when asking blaze. She asked whether Blaze felt that you were or not. She didnt lie about anything, simply requested someones opinion on the issue. As I said, forcing someone to take a stand.

[Elias_the_thief]

fine, here is a better example:

"elias, do you think reyo has been overdefensive so far or do you think she is just being misundersttod?"

would that be ok for me to post?

no, because its still not a similar situation, as the assertion "reyo is being overdefensive" has not been widely made. At the point at which Reyo asked, 2-3 people had accused you of it, therefore making it a major issue in the game and worthy of a query.

[Elias_the_thief]

they had accused me of it sure. but i then clarified it for those people that misread my post. which means that noone could possibly think that at the point her post was made.

that doesnt mean its scummy to ask a lurker for their opinion on the matter. it means that they want to get the opinion of a person on a major happening in the game. Again, the matter of Reyo knowing the answer that they would give for the same question is irrelevant. It really just isnt that scummy.

[Elias_the_thief]

Blaze: the problem with your strategy is theres no guarantee there is a doctor. If there is one, it would work, but otherwise you just kill off your cop basically.

[Elias_the_thief]

um. thats a weird post. but i understand what youre saying and its exactly the reason I do not believe overdefensiveness is a scumtell, seeing as the only possible response to the accusation is to defend yourself, for which you are attacked further. Therefore whether or not OMG is being overdefensive is a nonissue to me. I dont think its reliable as a scum tell. My town play is built almost entirely on skilled defense.

[Elias_the_thief]

good contribution lll...

anyways, i am considering voting OMG, mainly based on his hyperactivity, and his quick response to anything anyone says. I dont know why, but it seems scummy to me. And further, different from the two times I've played with him previously, in which he was town twice. The overdefensiveness argument that people are making is BS by the way.

[Elias_the_thief]

Something I learned in the first place I learned to play mafia: it is better to attempt to kill a mafia member and risk accidentally kill a citizen, than to not kill anyone and allow the mafia a free shot. By killing someone, you can base day 2 starting votes on whether the person killed was innocent or not; who was killed in the night. Also, it allows the cop a better guess of figuring out who to check in the night (assuming, of course, we have one). I hold nothing against you for suggesting that theory, because I'm sure people may not agree with my way of looking at things.

Yeah, I cant believe I missed this in the suggested strat. GW is completely right, no lynch is terrible and just gives mafia control of the game (except for key late-game situations).

[Elias_the_thief]

k.

unvote, vote: OMG

[Elias_the_thief]

Yeah come on militant, let me have some fun here. Nothing is really happening right now anyways, and my vote had been on OMG for a while (not to mention explained with some admittedly weak reasons).

[Elias_the_thief]

serious discussion will usually arise form unserious discussion. Just look at the prominence of the random voting stage.

[Elias_the_thief]

I haven't posted much...

I do believe that omg's post was innocent enough, and probably a simple mistake that was taken the wrong way.

probably

.

The thing is, we are not really getting anywhere other than that... he is the best lead we have at this point, IMO. Out of anybody else, he has appeared the most suspicious. For a 'random' Day 1 lynch, which has the annoying habit of the result being a vanilla townie, I don't think it is an altogether bad option.

unvote vote omg_im_innocent_wtf

Random lynch is a TERRIBLE idea.

unvote, vote lalaland

[Elias_the_thief]

less setup speculation, more voting lalaland, please.

[Elias_the_thief]

Random lynch is a TERRIBLE idea.
unvote, vote lalaland

Jog on! Look at this: lalaland

Townsperson

First red flag
Gender:
Joined:

01 Feb 2008

Second red flag.

That is a bad vote. She suggested something that would've been scummy coming from you or me, but fits with a total newbie.

FoS Elias

You should know better.

*Sigh*
Oman, you ruin everything. Its called a random wagon in order to create discussion. Thanks to your comment the game will once again grind to a screeching halt.

[Elias_the_thief]

Thats exactly the problem with pressure votes. Every time someone used them, they have to go "CALM DOWN GUYZ IT R PRESSURE VOTE" in the same post. I generally dont do that seeing as it defeats the point, I just vote for any old reason in the beginning of the game and join in bandwagoning.

[Elias_the_thief]

Vote: omg_im_innocent_wtf

This is crap:

Vote Reyo for continuous anti-town behavior.

The worst thing Reyo has done was wonder about the things you've said, which a lot of people have been doing. That's not anti-town in the least, it's trying to figure out who's scum and who isn't.

/agree. Reyo really hasnt been that anti town.

This is crap:

that said, i would like to at least put pressure on someone to see what happens, and lalaland does seem to be lurking.

There are other people lurking in this game, I just got prodded for example. You could have voted for any of them, but instead you decide to vote for a person that someone else recently voted for?

Disagree. Voting for someone thats already been voted for is better than someone who hasnt as it builds more pressure than one vote would. Bandwagons are good, when controlled.

And this is crap:

btw, all - just a heads up, i dont think there is much point in me claiming at all. anyone that has played with me before knows i think lynch all liars is complete crap and would make up whatever role i felt best suited me. for example, if i am a roleblocker i would probly claim townie, if i was townie i would claim doc, if i was scum i can just pick from the 2, if i was cultist then i probably claim townie again lol.

So you're an intentional liar instead of giving good claims? How is that supposed to help the town at all? You stink of scum.

Claims such as he mentioned actually do help town. By claiming town as RB he prevents himself from being NKEd by scum first night. if he claims doc while town he draws the kill away from power roles. These are all good plays, and reasons why lynch all liars is retarded.

[Elias_the_thief]

damn, i forgot to stick with my /agree, /disagree thing all the way through.

[Elias_the_thief]

By claiming town as RB he prevents himself from being NKEd by scum first night.

This means the scum would have gone for someone else and that someone else could be a doc/ cop (more powerful power roles).

Its better to have that risk with the chance of hitting vanilla than a guaranteed lost roleblocker.

And if later on in the game you've found a scum with your role blocking, it would be very difficult to convince other townie since you've lied at the beginning. If you've blocked a town power role previously, by not declaring you are one and whom you've blocked, they would think there is a mafia role-blocker as well.

If they do that then they are retarded. You explain your reasons for falseclaiming, if the town disbelieves you thats not your mistake, its the towns. Also, if youve blocked a town power role that doesnt indicate youre scum, as scum knows just as little about who the power roles are as town.

if he claims doc while town he draws the kill away from power roles.

In this case, you'll draw more suspicion from the real doc if there is one. You might even cause the real doc to claim if he really think you're scum. Also, if a doc die after you've fakeclaim, unless you're really good, the chance you could talk yourself out of this is dim.

Drawing suspicion from the doc is fine as youre also drawing the nightkill. A counterclaim is very unlikely if the doc is a good player, and if he isnt thats not your fault, its his. and the part about the doc dying after youve fakeclaimed doesnt matter. The whole idea is to draw the NK that night and protect power roles. Suspicion in the future doesnt matter because you'll be dead.

[Elias_the_thief]

mod, i switched my vote to lalaland a while back

fixed

[Elias_the_thief]

By the way, bandwagons are good. I'll agree that the one on OMG is baseless, and a little too large for my liking right now.

[Elias_the_thief]

This means the scum would have gone for someone else and that someone else could be a doc/ cop (more powerful power roles).

Its better to have that risk with the chance of hitting vanilla than a guaranteed lost roleblocker.

This is only when you are assuming we haven't got a doc.

No. I'd rather take the risk with other power roles then the assured loss of one. Its more likely they hit vanilla than power role.

If they do that then they are retarded. You explain your reasons for falseclaiming, if the town disbelieves you thats not your mistake, its the towns.

This is the point, how could you distinguish a fakeclaiming town and a fakeclaiming scum? When playing mafia, people get paronoid. They try to question everything everyone says. Now that if you fakeclaim, then it doesn't only make people disbelieve you but also give excuses for the scums to jump onto your wagon.

If he's already explained that he fakeclaims prior to making the claim then the town should believe him. Even if he takes back his claim, it doesnt make him that suspicious because revealing yourself as something else really doesnt have THAT much benefit to scum.

[Elias_the_thief]

um...ok. Because one person saying that they fakeclaim definately means that EVERYONE will do it. Makes perfect sense.

Listen, I'm not saying we should believe everyone on this, but OMG ALWAYS fakeclaims. I've seen it in games with him before. I'm talking meta right now.

Anyways, why exactly are you voting me? Does saying that I would believe a fakeclaim really make me scum? Think before you vote, what benefit does it give to scum? If its not much, then your vote is a poor one (hint: your vote is a poor one).

[Elias_the_thief]

Hmm. I'll wait for OMG's response on that one. My feeling is he didnt realize that Norinel had been voting him before the wagon, as scum doesnt really gain anything from making such an easily refutable accusation. And therefore its a nulltell.

As for the other things going on...I really should reread. I'll get back to you guys on that.

[Elias_the_thief]

I'm still a fan of an OMG lynch. The guy is all over the place. That last bit about Noriel was obviously a horrid defence.

What do you mean by "all over the place", and why is it a scumtell?

Also, the bit about Norinel is pretty obviously a mistake, and not a scumtell.

[Elias_the_thief]

Agree with the above post, but I believe GS would be better suited with a

vote: GS

.

[Elias_the_thief]

Reyo and Friend of Old, why are you voting for GS (I know you didnt actually vote yet reyo)?

[Elias_the_thief]

Elias - I think is scum. Seems like he's making poor excuses for votes (lalaland) and as i've already said don't like the Omg case. Getting that general scum feel...

So youre telling me that pressure wagoning is a bad reason to vote someone? Even when I've jumped off every wagon including that one when it got close to a lynch?

[Elias_the_thief]

why is pressure wagoning bad.

[Elias_the_thief]

but thats why i was voting lalaland. I explained that.

[Elias_the_thief]

So yeah...where is GSGold?

[Elias_the_thief]

Thoughts on BM's thoughts:

1) Overdefensiveness is not a scumtell. Townies do not have survivor win conditions, its true, but its only instinct to try to prevent your own lynch. Defensiveness is a key part of my town play. Also, being very defensive is good town play, as one less townie candidate for lynch = that much more chance of scum being lynched.

2) NOWHERE did I say that posting frequently was a town tell in general. I said I was getting a town feel from him early on based on his high activity level. That doesnt mean that he can just post a lot the rest of the day and be town, and at a certain point overactivity seems fishy to me.

3) Post 148 is by no means similar to LLL. LLL was suggesting a random lynch. I was suggesting a random

wagon

. Random wagons are extremely good for town. They force players to actually take a stand, they garner information about the playrs reaction, and in general create discussion. Comparing random wagons to random lynches is really dumb, and I thought you were experiened enough to know the difference.

4) I am defending OMG adamantly because I've played with him twice before and seen lynched for weak reasons that were spurred on by bad reactions on his part. Both times he's been town.

[Elias_the_thief]

Simply put, scum need to survive to win. Townies dont TO THE SAME EXTENT.

Actually, scum dont need to survive to win. Lots of gambits involve scum sacrificing themselves to help the town, and bussing is common practice. With experienced scum, the instinct to survive really shouldnt be something exhibited.

Equally, townies tend not to be defensive to start with.

Not true. Noobs will instinctively defend themselves adamantly, not because they want to stay in for town benefit, but because they dont want to stop playing. Its two motives working against eachother, but it varies whether noob townies fall into it or not.

A defensive townie is useless.

Thats not true either. A townie who successfully defends himself stops a townie lynch and increases the likelihood of a scum lynch. Also, once he has defended himself sufficiently he can go back to scumhunting.

We want aggressive townies who keep scum on their toes, and are constantly watching for slips. If a player is not scumhunting, and instead seems to be solely concerned with his own survival, he is probably scum.

The last part is again, not true.

Ah ok. I guess you didnt make this last point clear. So posting alot at the start of the day, when little of value is being discussed is ok, but posting alot when the town gets into its stride is real fishy, right?

*shrug*
His posts felt that way to me. Posting a lot without much real content is good to get discussion going, continuing to make large posts with little content is a bit fishy when there is content to discuss.

link me to these games please.

Mini 417
Mini 424

---

1)

It shouldn't be entirely random... ever.

2)

I mean, how will a random bandwagon tell you anything? It puts pressure on the person being bandwagonned, and you can get info about that person.

3)

But isn't the person apt to attack you for random bandwagonning?

4)

And how are you supposed to analyze anything about the bandwagonners? Any attack on their behavior can be explained away by "hey, guys, it was just random, I didn't mean anything by it."

Numbered by me for answering convenience:
1) It usually isn't. Mine was for because LLL was suggesting a random lynch. It was a very small reason, but I wanted a wagon to get discussion going.
2) You dont declare a random wagon as random, usually. The person under pressure may think it is serious and his reactions will help you learn things later in the game. Also, you can archive how people act on the wagon to help later on in the game. More important is that it starts discussion. Without discussion nothing happens.
3) You don't declare it as random, and bandwagons ARE accepted behavior, at least among experienced players. So you're unlikely to be attacked.
4) The other bandwagoners may not know its random. Players might be willing to lynch for a bad reason (see: random bandwagons are in actuality for small reasons). Also, if you learn the alignment about any players involved, it tells you more about the other players involved (scum links).

---

The points against me are completely WIFOM...in regards to OMG, I'm just saying I've seen him go down as town on reasons like this in two games (I was scum in both of those) and hes exhibiting similar reactions here. I'm not saying its a town tell, but for him these are NOT scum tells. I won't condone a lynch of his without further evidence, because people often mistake his annoying playstyle for scummy play.

[Elias_the_thief]

Hrm. I hadn't been considering overdefensiveness in light of the Recruiter, only mafia. That makes things a little more interesting. I have to think on it.

[Elias_the_thief]

Um...why is the tide swinging towards me again? I haven't heard a single good point against me...

[Elias_the_thief]

I see that he was lynched for similar behavior in the first game, but looks like he was NKed in the second game.

Oh yeah i forgot that. he was acting similarly in that one though, despite getting NKed (a doc claim saved him i think).

His behavior is shockingly similar in the first game as his behavior in this game. Emotional appeals, insulting anyone who thinks he's scummy. I think he deserved to be lynched that game. Generally making himself easy to lynch. And for a townie that's bad play. If you make yourself look scummy as a townie, you're not helping the town. Because other townies will genuinely think you're scum, and it will make it hard to catch scum on crap reasoning -- because the reasons aren't crappy.

Actually, if the town is any good at all, they'll realize that its the townies playstyle (the way he plays as town AND scum) and thus not scumtells or towntellls, but nulltells. Its not his fault that the quality of play on this site has gone so far down that its a uesless tactic nowadays.

I am feeling as happy to lynch Elias as OMG at this time. IMO, the tide is swinging against Elias.

Why am I scum?

[Elias_the_thief]

Hey guys...its a null tell. Thats what WIFOM is. Theres no reason to keep wasting time arguing about it. I defended OMG because I've seen him lynched as town for these exact reasons.

[Elias_the_thief]

In this game they do. With only 2 mafia and a Cult Recruiter, bussing isnt something i expect to see for a while yet. Ive never yet seen a scum gambit which was designed to help the town.

I'm not saying that they are as of yet. More likely scum is sitting back and not touching this situation. I was just using that point to illustrate that overdefensiveness is not a good scumtell.

theres a difference between defending yourself adamantly and being more concerned with your own survival than your victory in the game.

I don't believe that OMG has crossed the threshhold from the former to the latter, especially seeing as he's advocating his own lynch. Even if he had, I still dont think its a scumtell.

A defensive townie will not successfully defend himself. A defensive townie gets lynched BECAUSE he is defensive. If a townie isnt scumhunting at all times, he isnt doing his job, although obviously i appreciate that he has to try and survive aswell.

I have successfully defended myself as a townie in several games...games I've won. Players being lynched because they are defensive is a meta problem, and ridiculous. Its basically saying "youre scum" and yelling YOURE DEFENDING YOURSELF ZOMG LYNCH when they try to say otherwise.

I guess that is subject to experience. How many games have you played on MS?

19, 20. I'm not sure. Probably less than you (you hyperactive nut), but enough to back up what I'm saying.

will check over those games when i get time.

Please do. Your arguments against OMG will seem a lot worse afterwards.

[Elias_the_thief]

Dude...if he's scum, its completely WIFOM where he put his suspicions...

[Elias_the_thief]

Yes, but not when they are fully knowledgable that they are going to die when they give that info. Info about what scum do on wagons and who they implicate BEFORE they resign their alignment as being given away is useful, as they need to preserve those opinions later on to continue their strategies. Info given by OMG in this situation when he's resigned to his lynch is just as WIFOM as an NK and basically useless. Just saying.

[Elias_the_thief]

Why am I scum?

Check out my post 374, and my comments about the whole random bandwagonning thing of yours. I think that you originally supported random bandwagonning, but are not trying to say you support it but didn't do it. Backtracking. Flip Flopping. You're trying to have it both ways.

Dude, I'm "flipflopping" on an issue of what I called something. A random wagon IS a wagon for a really small reason to start discussion. Its ridiculous to call it "for a really small reason wagon". Its a random wagon, like a random vote is a random vote, even though it may not be completely random. Believe it or not, backtracking is only a scumtell if its on something that actually matters. There is no relevance to this point. Simply put, how is this beneficial to scum?

1)omg's activity level first makes you think he's town, then think he's scum. I guess I'm just wondering where this imaginary line is.

The imaginary line is created by the problem I'm having with thinking OMG is scum after having seen him in two games acting like this before.

This part is the MOST TELLING to me as Elias has said most of the game how omg always plays like this and don't take him seriously. Yet in the above quote he sees omg's play as different. He's vague about how it's different. But he says it's different. TOTAL OPPOSITE. Feels to me like he got sick of defending omg and decided it would just be easier to lynch him. But he had to reverse himself entirely. And his reasoning is so bad. It's meta, and it's not even substantiated. It's just a vague meta feeling that totally goes against what he said previously and later.

I'm wishy washy on OMG because I've played with before which explains his behavior, but its hard to dismiss it. And his play HAS been different, though only during certain periods. He's fallen back into it lately (being condescending and such).

And another quote when Elias says the opposite about omg's play -- saying it's different that previous games.

no, hes changed some. before he got impatient and tired of town really quickly, and basically just swore at people (this was as town).

This is what he's doing now, getting impatient at people. Thus I'm defending him again.

Why does he have a problem with the omg wagon being "baseless" when he already said how he likes the idea of random wagons (which are baseless)?

First, random wagons are not actually random. Its just what theyre called. Second, I had a problem with it because it was nearing lynch, as I said in my post (gettiing pretty large were my exact words).

4) Elias piles on and votes GS and then ask others for their reasons for voting GS.
Then he asks people for their reasons. Which is usually something you do when you don't understand the reasoning. And if you're voting the guy, you should know why he's scummy.

I gave my reasons as the ones that were listed in the post above mine. The two players I asked literally didnt even do that much. I was completely in the right to ask their reasons.

[Elias_the_thief]

ok then, that was stupid. i was in the right to ask FoO, who's given reason was "to go with the flow"

[Elias_the_thief]

post 387 is in response to BMs points about the wifom nature of OMGs suspiciouns.

[Elias_the_thief]

I agree with OMG. but i think its kind of silly that hes defending himself from BMs accusation givne that fact.

[Elias_the_thief]

also, that being said,

unvote, vote: OMG

. He's the best lynch for today.

[Elias_the_thief]

Bah. Go town. Also, i told ya so.

[Elias_the_thief]

Yay for being NKed N1!