Mini 559 - Cult Mafia again - Game over


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Post Post #6 (isolation #0) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 10:43 am

Post by dahen »

vote: militant

Because I felt like voting number 8 on the list.
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Post Post #18 (isolation #1) » Thu Feb 07, 2008 9:33 pm

Post by dahen »

omg:
Your setup guess seems sensible.
You are also correct that the cult is the common enemy of town and mafia, but finding the cultist today is extemely hard, since he/she doesn't have a connection to anybody at the moment. Mafia, on the other hand, are connected, so there we at least have a chance to find anything.

Regarding claims, I'm not sure about the lynch claimed townie-strategy.
If we decide that a claimed townie should be lynched (to make it possible for the recruit to fail) and a claimed power-role should be kept alive for the mafia to take out, then you are dead whatever role you have when you claim.

Of course, this means that any scum needs to claim power-role which is more beneficial to town than if they claim powerless (easier to counterclaim and verify). A claimed power-role who survives creates a WIFOM-situation of course, but that can always be taken care of.

Hmm... maybe you are correct. But the witch trial feel of claims in these cases made me think of an alternative strategy of no claims at all (confuses mafia and cult) followed by a mass claim at some strategic point in the game. Opinions?
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Post Post #97 (isolation #2) » Sun Feb 10, 2008 8:24 pm

Post by dahen »

Blazerunner wrote: 3-About strategy now... Would it be a good strat for the village?
We dont lynch first day, second day the cop claims and gives his report, and doctor protects him.

I think its best not to lynch than killing a townie. But the strat I posted seems risky too, cause on night one, mafia could kill a power role, cultists recruit a townie and day 2 mafia fake claim cop... The scenario doesnt look nice
Why do you suggest this strategy? I assume you don't suggest this in all your games. I also assume that the reason you suggest it is the different nature of this game. But I can't see why a cult game would benefit from your strategy. Please explain your thoughts and reasoning!
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Post Post #110 (isolation #3) » Mon Feb 11, 2008 8:36 am

Post by dahen »

unvote

vote Oman
because I think he's the scummiest player. His posts don't feel right to me:
Oman wrote: We basically decided that lynching a claimed townie is a dumb goddamn move.

Basically, everyone claim whatever the hell you want. The best idea for townies is to claim Doctor and draw the NK. Best idea for the Doctor is to claim tonwie and draw the cult recruit.
Since Oman has played this game before, I think he should put some more effort in describing towns best strategies from his stand-point. The strategy that town should claim doc and doc claim town is of course useless after it has been stated.
Oman wrote: Elias, is he like this all the time? You two have history, right?
This question is valid, but the follow-up seems scummily prepared:
Oman wrote: Well, I won't vote him on changed behaviour, because being away from the site will change your playstyle.
Oman wrote: Vote Blazerunner I dislike your plan from a town standpoint. Would be great if you were cult though.
I also dislike Blazerunner's plan. That doesn't mean I think he's scum. That vote by you is too easy. It seems like you have been trying to just find a place for your vote and finally had the opportunity.
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Post Post #128 (isolation #4) » Tue Feb 12, 2008 9:00 pm

Post by dahen »

GhostWriter wrote: Just wondering, who hasn't talked too much yet?
Well, Oman hasn't responded to my vote. Not that anybody else have either, which I don't understand. Nobody has even accused me of trying to create a wagon or anything.

Am I correct that nobody but me so far has looked at all posts of other players to dig up something that tells their gut that someone looks for scummy than the rest?
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Post Post #129 (isolation #5) » Tue Feb 12, 2008 9:01 pm

Post by dahen »

EBWODP: that someone looks scummier than the rest?
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Post Post #143 (isolation #6) » Wed Feb 13, 2008 9:08 pm

Post by dahen »

Oman, thanks for your reply.
You haven't commented on my suggested strategy of forbidding claims (except cops with guilty(s)) until a certain point when we mass claim. Isn't that better than trying to mix the proper blend of WIFOM?

omg: How exactly do you feel that you put pressure on someone when you vote her at the same time as saying the vote isn't sound?
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Post Post #202 (isolation #7) » Sun Feb 17, 2008 11:41 pm

Post by dahen »

Oh, a lot to read from the last days:
Ghostwriter wrote: As far as I see it, OMG is proving to be more pro-town than that bandwagon is giving him credit for. By misunderstanding half the things he says and by not being able to fully see how certain fake claims can benefit the town, a lot of you seem to be blindly placing a vote on anyone that thinks differently than you or than you feel they should. So far, all he's done is explain his gameplay ahead of time. I find nothing scummy about that at all. The way that he's described what he WOULD do (not what he's actually doing, but what he would, theoretically do, or could have done) if he were in those roles that he has listed, it sounds very beneficial to which ever side he plays. As of right now, taking Elias' change to lalaland, various lurkers suddenly reappeared and jumped on a bandwagon, all following pretty much the same exact reasons and put him at L-2. If that's how you respond to a prod, jumping on the biggest vote at the time and regurgitating a previous reason, then please, never leave again.
I agree fully with this.
GSGold wrote: I'm keeping my vote on OMG for trying to paint Norinel as a bandwagoning scum when in fact it was a semi-random vote.
This is the first real scummy thing from OMG as I see it. The rest seem to be a game style which attracts a lot of attention, which can be good or bad for the town. Personally I think it is annoying, but I'll try not to be influenced by that.

I've not finished reading up. I will post more later.
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Post Post #311 (isolation #8) » Tue Feb 26, 2008 4:50 am

Post by dahen »

Prod received! This games moves really fast. Every time I try to catch up there are new pages added. I'll make another attempt tonight or tomorrow.
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Post Post #324 (isolation #9) » Thu Feb 28, 2008 9:43 am

Post by dahen »

Ok. Finally some time to catch up.
I'll do a re-read and type as I read. I'm not sure I'll manage to get through all of it. Here we go.

p1:
omg starts with his strategy post. Seems good.
Then I ask for comments on my suggestion of no-claims followed by mass-claim.
XReyoX answers but not with much of a theory.
omg answers and agrees with my idea.
Then Oman says claiming is broken and suggest fake claiming.
this is part of why I voted Oman later


p2:
XReyoX and Norinel are sceptical to fake claiming.
Norinel then attacks omg for being over defensive (keeping his vote there)
GSGold agrees, but tones it down.
Friends of Old also prefers true claims. He also attacks omg (no vote).
omg explains himself as making a general point
Then omg over expains it a bit and thinks it's sad that people missed his bit. No mentioning of scumminess. Then wants confirmations.
Blazerunner gets prodded and says claiming at will.
Norinel says it's scummy that omg even throws out being scum as a possibility.

p3:
omg jumps on XReyoX for asking Blaze about omg's defensiveness.
This is scummy, since he should obviously have waited for Blaze's answer if he were a curious townie. Now omg seems more interested in himself, which is not good townie behaviour.

Elias seems to share my view.
omg continues to focus on himself
Elias then says he is not suspicious of omg.
But he said omg's vote was weak and that he might be over-compensating. He also has his vote on omg at this time!

omg and Elias argues abit about the Reyo vote.
Oman asks Elias if omg is always like this and then quotes his post without any addition.
Elias says omg is different.
then why isn't he at least a bit suspicious of omg?

Then omg defends himself again and says that Elias thinks he is evil, although Elias haven't said so.
Oman drops his case directly when he hears omg has been away.
What had he expected? That Elias would say that this was exactly how omg was as scum all the time?

Then more quarrel between omg and Elias.
omg seems to ignore the number one way of scum hunting -- provoking reactions of all sorts

Norinel dislikes this being omg against the rest.
Then Oman steps in with a short message that doesn't say much.
Blazerunner then suggest a no-lynch strategy and thinks it's bad if a mafia member claims cop.
I think no-lynch is wrong and I think a cop claim by mafia is good. But Blazerunner is appearantly new here.


Top suspects so far:
omg (for not scum hunting)
oman (for not contributing more when talking strategy and for withdrawing a potential case too early)
elias (for pointing out scummy things about omg, keeping his vote on him and thinking he is not suspicious)

This will probably change as I continue...
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Post Post #474 (isolation #10) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 9:49 am

Post by dahen »

Have you missed me? I am here and continuing my read.

p4:
I question Blazerunner regarding his suggested strategy.
p5:
I vote Oman.
p6:
I ask why nobody has commented on my comments or vote.
XReyoX responds that he is waiting for Oman's reply.
Oman responds. He admits to trying to find a wagon.
lalaland said she hasn't posted much and thinks omg is an ok lynch, but she seems quite certain that he will turn up pro-town.
XReyoX comments on my questions to Oman and thinks Oman's vote is fair.
Elias throws a vote at lalaland for suggesting no-lynch, but that's not exactly what she did.
omg votes lalaland for pressure even though he thinks the original reason is lame.
Oman votes Elias for voting lalaland for being newbie.
Elias sighs at Oman for halting the wagon.
Now Oman switches his vote to OMG for something he did prior to the Elias vote. Hmm.

p7:
Omg votes Reyo for "continuous anti-town behavior". I don't agree at all with this.
FoO jumps on Omg for that Reyo vote.
GSGold writes a list of reasons to vote Omg.
GW says that we misunderstand Omg. I don't see any such misunderstandings. It's Omg's word.
Blazerunner makes a strange post about claiming as a coin-flip. I don't agree.

I will continue. Top suspects to here in no particular order:
Omg
lalaland
Elias
GW
Oman

And Blazerunner still hasn't answered my first question to him regarding his suggested strategy in the beginning.
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Post Post #476 (isolation #11) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 10:34 am

Post by dahen »

p8:
XReyoX knows four languages better than what I think is a very good knowledge of English. Impressive!
(Ok, not game related.)

p9:
GW says GSGold and OMG are scummy and XReyoX and omg townish.
omg writes a case against GSGold. The first real contribution from omg.
XReyoX accuses Oman and GS. Elias agrees, but suggests a vote on GS (and votes him).
Xtoxm replaces militant.
FoO joins the GS wagon.
XReyoX thinks FoO's voting pattern is scummy but joins the GS wagon.

p10:
Xtoxm thinks omg and XReyoX are townish and likes the GS-wagon.
omg says he thinks Elias is scummy.
Oman jumps in and thinks omg is wishy washy.
Blazerunner joins the wagon on GSGold and says it's partly because of his vote on omg. Seems very certain of a pro-town omg.

Time to get some sleep. You'll get more in a few days.
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Post Post #485 (isolation #12) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 8:10 pm

Post by dahen »

Hi, you will get my thoughts, but I still have pages to read. Also, I don't just summarize, I write what I think is important and I think you can tell from my writing what actions surprises me etc.

When I am trough it all I will definitely give you my thoughts in more detail. Until then I guess you have to wait or ask for me to be replaced, although I hope you choose the first.

I am glad to see that most of you seem to have read what I've wrote. I think it's important to look at the game as a whole, not just the last pages. That's why I started my re-read from the beginning.

See you soon
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Post Post #574 (isolation #13) » Tue Mar 18, 2008 8:03 pm

Post by dahen »

I'm here again and will continue my catch up today. From what I scanned through on the last page it seems like interesting things are starting to happen. :wink:
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Post Post #586 (isolation #14) » Thu Mar 20, 2008 10:44 pm

Post by dahen »

I'm going away for Easter, but I've taken the pages with me cached so I can read and write something while being away.
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Post Post #637 (isolation #15) » Mon Mar 24, 2008 9:15 am

Post by dahen »

OK. Easter is over. I'm back and I've been reading. Today I've read pages 8-22 (woho!), so tomorrow I expect to be back on track with this game.

I'll summarize and try to make a good case tomorrow. But this is how I "feel" right now about the players. Do what you want with it:

2.) dahen: Me.
not vig

4.) Friend of Old: Slight scum
5.) GhostWriter: Slight town
6.) Battle Mage (replacing GSGold): Slight scum
7.) Pink Puppy (replacing lalaland): Town
8.) Xtoxm (replacing militant): Claimed vig. Town.
9.) Norinel: Scum
10.) Oman: Better than yesterday, but still doesn't do much. Slight town.
12.) XReyoX: I've been viewing him as town all game and I really can't let that feeling go away. Town.
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Post Post #684 (isolation #16) » Fri Mar 28, 2008 12:22 pm

Post by dahen »

I'm finally here at the very end. Expect much better activity now.
Posts I think are scummy:
FoO #221 wrote: After the replacement, unvote and because of my current strategy, vote: GSGold.
Did we ever get a good explanation of this strategy.
Norinel #248 wrote: Xtox: Cult recruiter's going to be really hard to find right now, since they're not associated with anyone. Making headway on the mafia'll be a lot more helpful right now, and if you have two possible scum, that matches numbers-wise.
The first sentence is correct. The second sentence is strange. All Xtoxm did was point out two players as mafia. Norinel doesn't seem to think like a townsperson here.
PP #371 wrote: But I'm not going to unvote someone who wants to be lynched. If omg unvotes himself, I am up for lynching elias.
I really never understood the reasoning behind this.
GW #562 wrote: But I only have that feeling you (FoO, my edit) give me of being mafia. However, you aren't the only one I have that feeling about anymore.
This last bit is vague. Why not stating all your suspicions together?
BM #621 wrote: currently my meta says you (Oman, my edit) are scum, despite everything else about you telling me otherwise.
BM who all game has defended Oman.

Norinel has throughout the game been very quiet with his suspicions of other people. The hammer on OMG came after a long period of being quiet from Norinel.


Also, BM asked me a question:
BM #326 wrote: Dahen is of course correct in saying that not claiming atall is the best policy, although im not sure what he means buy a strategic massclaim later in the game. Explanation?
What I mean is that claims are probably not going to help us much in the beginning of the game. If we gets stuck in the end a mass-claim can reveal interesting things, since we can get information of probable/non-probable cultists and power role-mismatches. If we should start claiming and giving scum information we could just as well let everything out in the open. But of course not until late in the game. That was my strategy proposal.


So, what to make of this?
I'm OK with a Norinel lynch. FoO has been really quiet lately so it's been hard finding anything scummy with him these last pages, but we shouldn't forget him either.

I'm up for a lynch on anyone of these.
unvote(?) vote Norinel


I promise to do my best to keep up with this game now.
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Post Post #718 (isolation #17) » Sun Mar 30, 2008 8:12 pm

Post by dahen »

I really don't understand what BM's doing here. I definitely don't want to go after Reyo.

Oman was my top suspect day one, was starting to look better in the beginning of this day, but now I don't know. FoO is getting votes but he hasn't stated whether he'd like to claim or not. I do prefer lynching FoO to Oman, since Oman at least is doing something.

My top canditate remains Norinel but I'm willing to hammer FoO if it needs to be done tonight.
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Post Post #719 (isolation #18) » Sun Mar 30, 2008 8:17 pm

Post by dahen »

Edit: I hadn't seen BM's last post when I was submitting mine.
That was a crazy hammer-and-claim post.
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Post Post #737 (isolation #19) » Fri Apr 04, 2008 1:39 am

Post by dahen »

Well, Norinel was my top suspect yesterday, but I'd like to check for connections since we hit scum with FoO yesterday before voting.

BM, I'd like to hear what you have to say.
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Post Post #738 (isolation #20) » Fri Apr 04, 2008 1:50 am

Post by dahen »

Do we know if GW was recruited this night or the night before?

Mod:
Will a killed player show up as a cult recruit if the recruit attempt took place the same night as the killing?
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Post Post #781 (isolation #21) » Mon Apr 07, 2008 9:41 am

Post by dahen »

I haven't checked back for connections, but I've stared at these last pages trying to find out what's going on.

PP; You say you think FoO's partner is Reyo/Imat, based on what you remember but haven't checked. Would you mind checking and posting something convincing?
Xtoxm wrote: I'm suspicious of BM again. Fakeclaiming cop on his hammer post to gain another night.


Yes, but on the other hand. But fake-claiming on hammer posts make more sense than true-claiming in that situation. As scum there is no reason he would fake-claim and then take back the claim tonight if not for drawing a potential doc-protect, but since mafia shot at GW anyway, that doesn't make sense.

As much as I dislike the logic of some of BM's post, this fake-claim was actually quite townish.

Imat: Stop focusing on BM. I agree with some of what you are saying, but try to re-read and post thoughts on all players, please.

Oman: Why are you so sure of Imat? All your posts are so short that you don't seam to play to convince other players. I think that's a bit sad.

BM: You say that there are facts against Reyo. That would be really easy if that was correct. There are no facts. If you want to scream to put pressure on people, then fine, but why spend your energy on Xtoxm?

BM: Explain why you say the last goon must be Reyo/Imat or Oman? Why do you include Oman, who you think is sooo pro-town, but don't include for instance me?

PP: Do you think BM and Reyo/Imat are both town?

Norinel: You say that BM tries to get a quick lynch since there is "a lot of stuff anyway" against Reyo. What exactly is the stuff you refer do?

BM: Why on earth would you try to get night-killed? Who's ass do you think you would be saving?
BM wrote: Could be, but think about it. His buddy is about to be lynched, and i'm attacking him hard. What a perfect time to decide to bail!
I don't agree with this at all. If anything encourages me to continue, it's when I'm under pressure. Why do you play mafia if you don't like that part.
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Post Post #784 (isolation #22) » Mon Apr 07, 2008 8:01 pm

Post by dahen »

PP, I asked you two questions. Would you like to answer them?
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Post Post #787 (isolation #23) » Tue Apr 08, 2008 9:57 am

Post by dahen »

PP: I am not lazy. I just don't accept the kind of accusations you are making as very convincing. It's possible that you are right about Reyo and it's also possible that I'll think of Reyo the same way as you do, but if I do, it will not be because of the way you try to convince me with just posting quotes.

And you still haven't answered both my questions.
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Post Post #789 (isolation #24) » Tue Apr 08, 2008 10:54 pm

Post by dahen »

PP: I know I kept falling behind in this game. But I also know I spent a lot of time catching up and reading every single post and writing notes. I apologize once again for my previous inactivity. Now, can we leave that part behind?

What troubles me is that you talk to me in a way as if I ask for your help. I don't. I ask for you to describe what you are doing so I know what to think of you. Please always keep that in mind when answering my questions.
PP wrote: The sheer number of times Reyo posts and accuses FoO, yet never votes, is pretty convincing.
This is what I expect you to answer. You could have said this from the beginning. It's much more interesting for me to hear your exact reasoning. I even agree with it.

Now, could you you be as precise when it comes to summarizing your view on Norinel?
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Post Post #852 (isolation #25) » Fri Apr 11, 2008 11:12 am

Post by dahen »

I'll probably have no access until Monday.

Oman: 1 I am not cult. 2 I will most definitely vote.
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Post Post #906 (isolation #26) » Tue Apr 15, 2008 7:27 pm

Post by dahen »

To all my games:
I will be on a trip to Norway, leaving later today, probably without Internet access until I'm back on Monday.

To this game:
I've been following the fights, but I'm not convinced either way. I'll see if I can put in a vote somewhere later today. Otherwise you'll have to wait until Monday.
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Post Post #994 (isolation #27) » Tue Apr 22, 2008 10:59 pm

Post by dahen »

I don't understand why I'm getting prodded all the time.
I was away until Monday on a trip, which I told you about. I'm back and I have been reading, but I can't just post every day. Yesterday I looked at the other game I'm in and today I'll look at this one. It's as simple as that.
Mod about cults wrote: You win if the cult is the last remaining faction in the game
We are five people, three teams. Probably like this:
1 Mafia
2 Power roles (me and Xtoxm)
2 Cultists

I happen to be a power role, yes.

Scenario M = P+C ties

If we kill mafia, then I and Xtoxm will vote No lynch every day and tie with the cult.

Scenario CC = P wins

If we kill cult, and mafia kills cult, then PR wins by voting in this situation.
1 mafia
2 PR

Scenario CP = P+C ties or M wins

If we kill cult, then mafia will probably kill me or Xtoxm bringing us to:
1 mafia
1 PR
1 cult

Xtoxm: Our best scenario is to vote cult today and mafia tomorrow. (sole win)
Our second best is to vote mafia today (tie with cult)
Worst is to vote cult today and tomorrow (mafia wins).

I am pretty sure that BM isn't CR, but he can well be cult. I've been thinking Norinel as scum the entire time. I'll post more thoughts in a moment.

And only if you don't believe me I'll fully claim, since I believe you and me to be the only power roles in this game.
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Post Post #995 (isolation #28) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 12:25 am

Post by dahen »

Norinel wrote: still means that lynching the last mafia could be an instant lose
This is incorrect.

BM says Norinel is CR and Oman Mafia. BM claims Townie, which I don't believe for a second. I believe him to be cult and thus Norinel as mafia and Oman as CR.
BM wrote: Norinel is the goon!? I dont remember this (im)possibility being mentioned before. Nor do i see how you can possibly consider it now, seeing as not only is Norinel virtually confirmed CR, but Oman is all but confirmed as the Mafia Goon.
Incorrect.
BM wrote:
Xtoxm wrote: And I don't like the way you are saying people are confirmed to be stuff when their not.
A good townsperson is a person who can explain their views in a way that the other townies will understand and appreciate. You are doing a poor job at the moment, BM. I am much more ready to listen if you explain in a calm way without stating things as obvious. You can play it your way our my way as you wish, but you should realize that I am town and that if you are, your job is to convince me even if it requires a change in play style. That is if you want to win (and is town, which I doubt)
BM wrote: as soon as you've answered my original question, i'll re-go over the case on Norinel
I'm looking forward to it.
Xtoxm wrote: I can see a Norinel Cult and Oman Mafiate.
It's not impossible. But why do you think it's not the other way around?
Norinel wrote: Half of the points raised against me were absurd, and I've already addressed the rest.
Giving up already?
Oman wrote: Sigh. BM went from rational to rediculous in the cause of a day. Guess he's a powerrole.
When your quick-lynch didn't work you try with confusion?
Xtoxm wrote: I've changed my mind about dahen claiming next...He's taking too long and I think he's power townie. He can go last.
Sorry I didn't see that until now. But you didn't get a full claim anyway, so I hope it's ok.
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Post Post #1000 (isolation #29) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:06 am

Post by dahen »

Hmm, yes, from my PM it seems that we need to get rid of cults to win and from the cult PM it seems that the cult needs to take over the town.

Mod:
Please clarify who wins/loses/ties in a morning with equal number of towns and cults and no mafia left.

Yes, Xtoxm, BM is probably not CR as I said, but he could be culted. I see no reason as to why the CR wouldn't try to recruit him last night. And since I didn't believe his cop claim at the time he claimed, he could just as well have been recruited that night.

So if we rule out BM as CR, as I see it the worst situation is:

1. BM M, Norinel C, Oman CR
2. BM M, Norinel CR, Oman C
3. BM C, Norinel M, Oman CR
4. BM C, Norinel CR, Oman M

If we add the possibility of BM being town, we get these as well (but it is possible that anyone of BM,Norinel,Oman are town)

5. BM T, Norinel CR, Oman M
6. BM T, Norinel M, Oman CR

The claims will be interesting, but I'll see if I can rule out any of the combinations above in the meantime.
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Post Post #1003 (isolation #30) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:30 am

Post by dahen »

Xtoxm wrote: I'm pretty sure we can rule out Oman as CR, though...He went through 2 nights as a claimed doctor...
Yes, that's right. But mafia didn't kill him. Why not?
1. Because he is mafia himself (possible)
2. Because the mafia didn't believe his claim (possible, and then your point is invalid)
3. Because the mafia believed his claim, but wanted to hunt for the CR instead (unprobable)
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Post Post #1005 (isolation #31) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:37 am

Post by dahen »

No, I believe you are right.

I want claims NOW. I've got a few things to say, but not until everyone has claimed.
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Post Post #1006 (isolation #32) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:43 am

Post by dahen »

I have no problems with Oman claiming before Norinel. (Yes I want a full statement from both guys.)
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Post Post #1024 (isolation #33) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:55 am

Post by dahen »

This is interesting.
Oman: A nurse fake claiming doc, I'm not sure I see the point of that.
I'd like to know how your role works. Do you send in night choices in the case the doc will die or there is no doc? Will you be told when you get powers? What exactly can you do?

Bed time. You'll hear more tomorrow.
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Post Post #1027 (isolation #34) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 8:05 pm

Post by dahen »

Xtoxm wrote: When the doc dies, he becomes doc and gains the powers, is how the role works
Thanks, but I know what a nurse is. I also know that it doesn't always work the same way. That's why I asked Oman.

Oman: Clearing your inbox like that is stupid. You should die only for that. And also for saying a Nurse is a powerless role who is not afraid to die. Nurse is a very good role for the town.
Oman wrote: my death could even confirm a doctor later
Oman wrote: Did it specifically say there was a doctor in the game? No.
If there was no gurarantee for a doc in the game, how would your death then guarantee one? Also, by claiming doc, worst case would have been a counter-claim from the real doc, leading to a lynched nurse and a night-killed doc.

So, I don't buy either of the cop or nurse claims. BM as townie, maybe.
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Post Post #1028 (isolation #35) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 8:17 pm

Post by dahen »

Now here is the thing again:
2 cults
2 pr's
1 mafia

Lynch M
: Triple loss, so no-one wants that. Cult knows who is mafia and should prevent this from happening.
Won't happen
.
Lynch P, Nightkill P
: Cult wins. But mafia won't do this.
Won't happen
.
Lynch P, Nightkill C
: Mafia wins or everyone loses. Mafia wants this. Cult does not, so will not lynch P.
Won't happen
.
Lynch C, Nightkill C
: Town wins. But mafia won't do this.
Won't happen
.
Lynch C, Nightkill P
: Mafia wins or everyone loses. Only mafia wants this, so...
Won't happen
.

So, if there are two cultists left, they cannot win and neither can the town.
The only side who can win this game is mafia. If you don't believe me, then read the above reasoning again.
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Post Post #1031 (isolation #36) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 8:48 pm

Post by dahen »

So, in order to proceed, we simply HAVE to assume something else (if we are wrong, there is not much to regret, since we couldn't win anyway in the above scenario):

First option (BM truthful, Oman+Norinel lying):
1 CR
2 PR's
1 townie
1 mafia

Lynch M
:
Town wins!

Lynch CR
:
Town wins!

Lynch T, Nightkill CR
: Town wins.
Won't happen

Lynch T, Nightkill PR
:
Mafia wins or triple loss.


Ok, so if BM is a townie, then we can lynch Oman or Norinel and win this game. Good for us.

Next option: (BM lying, Oman or Norinel truethful)
1 CR
3 PR
1 M

Lynch M
: Cult can't recruit. Town gets two lynches.
Town wins!

Lynch CR
: Mafia kills a PR.
Town or mafia wins!

Lynch PR, Nightkill CR
: Town wins, so
won't happen

Lynch PR, Nightkill PR
:
Mafia wins or everyone loses.


I see no more options, do you?
So, what does this give us:
Option 1:
Lynch Oman or Norinel =
Town wins!

Lynch anyone else
= Triple loss
.
Option 2:
Lynch M-BM: Town wins!

Lynch CR-BM
: Town must figure out if Norinel or Oman is mafia.
Town or mafia wins.

Lynch M-Oman/M-Norinel: Town wins!

Lynch CR-Oman/CR-Norinel
: Town must figure out if BM or Norinel/Oman is mafia.
Town or mafia wins

Lynch Nurse-Oman/Cop-Norinel: Triple loss


So, I suggest we lynch Norinel or Oman. That case we win in Option 1 and we have 50% of winning in Option 2. Thoughts? In neither of these cases can cult win. It looks tough for the cult.
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Post Post #1032 (isolation #37) » Wed Apr 23, 2008 8:52 pm

Post by dahen »

Oman wrote:
Dahen wrote:Lynch C, Nightkill C: Town wins. But mafia won't do this.
Mafia can still win here.
No way. This means leaving mafia + Xtoxm and me. I won't vote Xtoxm and he won't vote me. Mafia knows this and won't let that happen.

I will only vote Norinel or Oman unless you can convince me that my reasoing around the numbers is wrong.
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Post Post #1039 (isolation #38) » Thu Apr 24, 2008 5:01 am

Post by dahen »

I'm not sure I need to argue with you, but here we go anyway:
BM wrote:
dahen wrote: Lynch M: Triple loss, so no-one wants that. Cult knows who is mafia and should prevent this from happening. Won't happen.
this is wrong. Firstly, lynching Mafia in this case would not be an automatic loss.
With the info I have, it's a guaranteed triple loss.
BM wrote:
dahen wrote: Lynch P, Nightkill P: Cult wins. But mafia won't do this. Won't happen.
this is wrong too. Mafia could well do that, on the grounds that they think there is only 1 cult left, as opposed to 2.
I don't think so. The mafia must target a cult, since he isn't sure. And there is no "they". It's one mafia guy left.
BM wrote: Do all your scenarios actually assume that the mafia and cult are somehow intertwined? 0.o
No, but all my scenarios are based on the fact that mafia and cult believes me and Xtoxm to be power roles.
BM wrote:
dahen wrote: Lynch C, Nightkill P: Mafia wins or everyone loses. Only mafia wants this, so... Won't happen.
Why would this not happen?
Hmm... thanks for finding a mistake. This can actually happen. Two cults left and one lynched today hands the game to mafia. But since town can't win in that scenario anyway, it's not much to feel bad about.
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Post Post #1046 (isolation #39) » Thu Apr 24, 2008 7:13 pm

Post by dahen »

Norinel wrote: In the case where there's a majority town, I think BM or dahen are most likely to be telling the truth
This is enough for me to vote you. Are you even trying to think as a pro-town player? If you, me and BM are pro-town, that leaves Oman as Mafia or CR, but who is the other bad guy? Our two shot vig Xtoxm? Is that what you believe? I'd like you answer this and your reasoning along the way for the people you've investigated. Thank you.
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Post Post #1052 (isolation #40) » Sun Apr 27, 2008 9:37 pm

Post by dahen »

No need to prod me. I'm here. I was busy during the week-end.
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Post Post #1058 (isolation #41) » Tue Apr 29, 2008 9:55 am

Post by dahen »

Ok, BM. Time to prove if you're cult or town.
vote Oman
naturally
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Post Post #1077 (isolation #42) » Thu May 01, 2008 5:41 am

Post by dahen »

Of course I'm a doc. And I protected BM tonight so he wouldn't become recruited.

N1: XreyoX
N2: Xtoxm
N3: Xtoxm
N4: Battle Mage

Since we have no mafia left, we can just lynch Oman today and BM tomorrow if necessary. I am more inlined to believe BM's townie claim than Oman's nurse claim.

Please vote Oman, Xtoxm. I don't feel like hammering BM.
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Post Post #1094 (isolation #43) » Sun May 04, 2008 7:16 pm

Post by dahen »

vote BM
If the CR would be me or Xtoxm, BM would have been recruited by now and cult won, so it's completely clear that you are the last scum in this game. I'm sorry Xtoxm, that I made you change your vote yesterday, but I believed it would be safer to take them in this order if we needed to take out both.
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Post Post #1096 (isolation #44) » Mon May 05, 2008 2:09 am

Post by dahen »

You did well to survive this long. Your cop gambit worked well enough that I didn't think you'd do it as a CR. On the other hand I didn't believe the claim at the time (I didn't protect you that night), so and I'm pretty sure mafia didn't either, so maybe it was wrong to use that as a point in your favor.

It was really good in this game to have a claimed vig, since I could protect him and hopefully stay alive long enough for him to get the chance to kill a scum or two.
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Post Post #1103 (isolation #45) » Mon May 05, 2008 5:40 am

Post by dahen »

Well... playing to get recruited is what you get in cult games. I don't have anything against it. Thanks all for a good game.
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Post Post #1118 (isolation #46) » Mon May 05, 2008 9:53 pm

Post by dahen »

I would have claimed nurse in this game if I were scum, since a doc was pretty much guaranteed.

The lynch of you, Oman, was much safer, since if you came up nurse, BM would have no chance on earth in swaying Xtoxm. If we instead lynched BM first and he came up town, Xtoxm would probably be confused and I was afraid he might turn against me in that scenario.
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