Mini 559 - Cult Mafia again - Game over

[Norinel]

vote: omg_im_innocent_wtf

for posting without random voting.

It occurs to me that by doing so I'm posting without random voting, but we can't have everything.

[Norinel]

If people are going to be fake claiming anyway, what's the point of claiming at all? Claiming to give the town info (Like the cop with results) is certainly a good idea regardless, but there doesn't seem to be any other good reason to claim if people are expecting pro-town people to not necessarily tell the truth.

forget commenting on me.

if everyone is 100% sure im mafia/cultist, it STILL makes sense in such a role filled game for us to first discuss tactics. and logic is logic, regardless of anyones role.

Did anyone else think this is a little bit unnecessary and overdefensive for Page 1? The two votes on omg at that point were both entirely spurious.

[Norinel]

before we continue, could i please just get a quick confirmation from those that misread/misunderstood my post that you now understand it?

I agree that it's a hypothetical. But the problem I had wasn't the meaning, it was the fact that you even threw it out there as a possibility at all.

Although as far as the point goes, I'd say we can discuss suspicion and strategy at the same time.

Blaze: The reason why ppl random vote at the beginning of the game is to encourage disscusion. No discussions are pointless. You could sometimes work out the real intension of the people who start or join them.

Agreed. Picking out little things from strategy discussion can go a long way. Plus, we might even be able to come up with a useful strategy.

[Norinel]

Whether or not posting too much is scummy might be disputable, but posting every single time anyone posts anything that could be considered as an attack with a detailed refutation just turns the thread into "OMG vs. everyone". And while that tells us a lot about OMG, we do need to consider other people too, since there are three bad guys out there already.

To comment on the one non-omg name that's come up, I must say I don't see where the Reyo accusation's coming from at all. He may have said other stuff that'd be worth a vote, but the bit OMG quoted wasn't it to me.

[Norinel]

Setup guessing is one of my pet peeves, to be honest. Don't know off-hand how much ckd hates it, but the only thing we're guaranteed is two mafia, one cult recruiter, and 2-4 town power roles. Given that there are heated discussions going on in MD as we speak trying to discourage always having cop+doc in a game, or assuming they're both around, assuming both is more tenuous then ever. Plus GF with no cop is a classic example of not-really-bastard moddery.

[Norinel]

But if people are only going to do unserious things for the sake of starting a discussion, the discussion will kind of by definition be over unserious things, right? Shouldn't we be able to pick out something useful by page 5, OMG killing one or two pages notwithstanding? (I'll definitely take a closer look over the thread so far when I have some more time, at least)

[Norinel]

But how is that any different from the earlier general discussion on whether or not fakeclaiming is a good idea in this game? The setup kind of encourages it anyway, metagame or not.

[Norinel]

Blaze: you didn't take into account that townies are on their own while scums can discuss together at night. If we assume that everyone's analytical skill is equal, then coudl figure out whether someone's fakeclaiming before the rest of us.

More importantly, the scum knows who's scum, so they know that a claimant is either townie or cult, and can rule out quite a few possibilities accordingly.

unvote: omg

since that bandwagon doesn't seem to be accomplishing anything.

vote: lalaland

for being really low volume and trying too hard to get things moving even though she admits it's kind of pointless. There are other people I'd vote right now, but she's the only one that's got an other votes.

[Norinel]

You do realize that I voted for you in my first post of the game, right? And you only had one vote at the time?

[Norinel]

I realised a bunch of guys had jumped on, and when I called them out and it became obvious there was scum on my wagon,

Even if you're town, this is the kind of thinking that's turning the thread into everyone vs. OMG, and that's going to drag the town down regardless of alignment. It's probably not everyone vs. OMG, and if it is than he's got the most dangerous role in this game. And combined with:

Basically comedy really, sometimes I dont even know if you guys are even serious or are just trying to annoy me with such silliness.

Insulting everyone else's intelligence isn't going to get anywhere. While there might be people on this site who don't take the game seriously or take an extra effort to make it look like they don't take things seriously, but I don't think there are any of them in this game.

[Norinel]

Xtox: Cult recruiter's going to be really hard to find right now, since they're not associated with anyone. Making headway on the mafia'll be a lot more helpful right now, and if you have two possible scum, that matches numbers-wise.

Thus far what have we established overall? Little that is useful as far as I am concerned.

The town's discussion doesn't need to establish something in order to be able to start looking for scummy stuff. How people treat a useless discussion can be, in and of itself, useful. For instance, part of the reason I kept my vote on OMG earlier on was because he seemed to be derailing the town from talking about anyone but him. (And now, apparently, it's him and whoever he wants to declare suspicious...)

OK FOD, I'm not buying your reasons behind your behaviour.

If you aren't buying it, why aren't you voting? Is the current topic of discussion less important than the fifth vote on a lurker wagon?

[Norinel]

If you aren't buying it, why aren't you voting? Is the current topic of discussion less important than the fifth vote on a lurker wagon?

My vote is on GS.

I think my words sort of got twisted around... why aren't you voting FoO? GSGold's primarily a lurker who'll get unvoted once he gets replaced; the OMG vote could be something, but is it more interesting than someone we can actually discuss now?

[Norinel]

Can anyone make a case why GSGold is scum?

I'll also admit I'm curious. There was one thing that OMG came up with back in post 212:

I'm keeping my vote on OMG for trying to paint Norinel as a bandwagoning scum when in fact it was a semi-random vote.

Unvote, Vote: GSGold

This was written right after i called out the 2 others for jumping on my bandwagon.

1. This looks to me like: 'Hey, Im not moving off, Im not scum'.

2. It is craplogic when thought about, particularly as I mentioned that I was in particular suspicious of Friend of Old and just included Norinel as he had done the same thing.

3. Constant lurking, and joining my bandwagon at an opportunistic time in the first place.

This is the first vote Im actually pretty happy with.

Which is a point, though I'm not sure it's a point worth keeping someone at lynch-2 if they're probably just going to get replaced anyway. Admittedly, I have yet to come up with a better idea, so I'll throw one out there:

unvote: Pink Puppy, vote: GhostWriter

for the points PP and FOO made and going way out of his way to defend OMG earlier today. It seems a little too obvious for a GW-OMG scumpairing (Not that I'm ruling anything out at this stage, of course), but the behavior makes sense regardless of OMG's alignment. If a lot of people are coming down on an angry townie for halfway decent reasons, making it look like you're dissuading the town from it is a good way to generate goodwill for later. Plus there was the stuff I was telling OMG earlier about assuming laziness or ill intentions in large swaths of the town, but that's getting to what PP said anyway.

[Norinel]

There's a deadline?

[Norinel]

I'm with PP and Xtoxm on this one. This is the kind of blow-up where the scum is either blatantly derailing the town's train of discussion or just sitting back and laughing. I still don't think it justifies a vote change until I'm convinced that someone's trying to be uncivil and just make things worse, but OMG's getting really close to that line with stuff like this:

yes i had

yes i have

you are a retard

that is all.

btw, seeing as how i always cop it any time i say anything that could even remotely be considered offensive can something be done about this retarded puppy clown?

i realise that not everyone on this site is as intelligent as me

My suggestion to OMG is that before hitting the "Submit" button, breathe, count to 10, and think if there's anything else that needs saying; the double/triple/quadruple posts aren't helping either. (And don't forget that you can quote more than one post at a time by making the quote tag yourself or hitting the Quote button in a new tab and copying in the quote code)

[Norinel]

When did I do that? I said I didn't care who you were and that I wanted you lynched, which was overly agressive I'll admit, but at no point did I say you were town, I think you are a scum player, as I stated.

I think the point is that that sentiment isn't usually helpful to the town. But OMG is definitely missing the point that there is one exception, when somebody is so disruptive to the town's functioning that lynching them now would be worth it to make future lynches more effective. I'm not sure he's crossed that line yet, which is why I sort of gave him a chance in my last post.

And I'm not a fan of super-fast but content-free prod responses, but we'll see if dahen can come up with anything better tonight or tomorrow.

[Norinel]

Yes, there are a lot of people who need to post more. But if the people who are posting are just pointing fingers and saying "You should post more!" then we're still not getting content in the thread. (And when OMG stopped posting a few days ago, that yanked out the topic that'd been dominating the thread) We really need multiple votes on someone other than OMG or BM, and there hasn't been a great candidate yet.

I'm sticking with GW for now- the only thing he's done since I voted for him was attacking dahen for content, when his own content minus defending OMG isn't any better.

[Norinel]

On the one hand, it feels good to see a lot of huge posts that aren't just OMG vs. the world. On the other hand, my brain's sort of glazing over most of it right now, but here are a few points I thought were interesting.

what the fuck are you talking about? A town RB isnt going to block a claimed cop unless he has a V good reason. You seem to be insinuating that anyone who considers blocking a claimed power role MUST be a mafia RB, which is untrue.

Thats what I'm saying. A TOWN RB isn't going to block a claimed cop unless has a V good reason. So if you're a claimed cop and you get blocked, what do you think?

I'm not sure where this argument started- BM seems to be arguing that Xreyo is proposing an unreasonable extreme, but I'm not seeing it.

One last thing, I am just not voting right now because I need to find some posts that justifiy the "general feeling" i have about the 2 of them, and because I want to see people's and their reactions to what I just said.

There's no reason that a "general feeling" shouldn't be enough for a vote. We're pretty late in the day, but votes have been thrown around for less.

Actually, scum dont need to survive to win. Lots of gambits involve scum sacrificing themselves to help the town, and bussing is common practice. With experienced scum, the instinct to survive really shouldnt be something exhibited.

Yes, technically, but dying as scum hurts your side a lot more than dying as town. And of course, the cult recruiter's survival instinct should be the highest of all, since right now his death means his side loses, and a death later makes things significantly harder for the cult.

[Norinel]

Wow, have a busy Saturday and you miss so much... Anyway, most of what I'd say would be to echo PP- assuming you're always right and everyone else only disagrees with you because they're too stupid to understand is come combination of foolish, fallacious and insulting. My read on OMG has leaned a lot more towards cult or self-destructing townie than mafia, but I could still see it going either way.

I suppose he is right that his lynch will give us a place to start tomorrow, but let's not forget that even if he does come up townie, each of the rest of us has just as much of a functioning confirmed pro-town brain as he does.

unvote: GW, vote: OMG

makes a hammer.

[Norinel]

I felt like everything'd been said already- there'd been a full page since OMG voted himself and quite explicitly asked the town to lynch him, and he'd been the topic of discussion for half the Day anyway.

CKD's setup post explicitly says there are three factions, so there can't be an SK. Vig seems most likely (And is a decent way to balance the cult's recruiting power), though I wouldn't hazard a guess right now as to which kill that was.

[Norinel]

As far as experience goes, Norinel far exceeds either me or Oman. If i recall, so does Dahen.

Do keep in mind that I'm coming off a lengthy hiatus. (This is my first game playing since I think May, though I finished off some stuff I was modding/MishMashing before I declared myself gone)

As far as the mafia power role things goes, don't all the standard ones only mess around with the town power roles anyway? (GF only makes a difference if there's a cop/vig, roleblocker only interferes with power roles, framer makes life harder for the cop) With only a handful of town roles total, and none of them outed yet except the vig, I don't see why speculation does much good. It'd probably just do more to expose the power roles.

[Norinel]

Well, I did say the mafia power role discussion would probably just out the town power... As I said before, vigs are probably most useful against cult since they let us kill them in the best case faster than they can recruit in the best case, which is a good thing.

I definitely agree with Oman that getting to a position where we can pretty much rule out Xtox as cult is a good thing, so I'm not a vig.

no, im just saying that i think you trying to paint it as anything other than an inexperience tell, is suspicious.

I'll sort of agree with that. As best as I can tell, PP's game right now is to throw as much suspicious stuff out there as possible and see what sticks, which is a pretty good move as town or scum. Don't think it's worth pursuing too heavily, though.

[Norinel]

As I posted in V/LA, I'll be gone until next Saturday; might be able to check in tomorrow, but I'm not guaranteeing it.

[Norinel]

I'm back, but need time to catch up, read what's been posted so far today, etc.

[Norinel]

Okay, we'll start there.

Well, I'm still here!

The thing that sticks in my head about Norinel is how he said

I suppose he is right that his lynch will give us a place to start tomorrow, but let's not forget that even if he does come up townie, each of the rest of us has just as much of a functioning confirmed pro-town brain as he does.

unvote: GW, vote: OMG makes a hammer.

I did think the last two votes in half an hour was pretty suspicious.

Honestly, I didn't notice that my vote was so soon timewise after the second-to-last one. I read since the last time I'd gotten on, saw OMG's self vote and claim and more than a page of discussion since then, and figured things had about gone far enough.

But aside from that and the fact that Norinel was hammering, I just don't like how he says "Let's remember that anyone who lynched OMG is probably town because he's acting like this." The fact that he wants to get that in before his vote, it's like he already knows OMG is town... and don't hold him (or other scum) responsible.

That's not what I meant- I was more warning people against trusting OMG's suspicions blindly, because everyone has even more information now than he did then. (And if he were scum, that would've all been WIFOM for a while) And there's no good reason to trust his suspicions any more than your own. Before he claimed, my read on OMG was either annoying townie derailing conversation or nasty scum derailing conversation, so the townie claim was plausible. But for a few different reasons, including some of the ones he proposed with his self-vote, he was still a good lynch yesterday.

And nowhere have I seen Norinel scumhunting hardcore today because "the OMG lynch gave so much info." How much info can it really give if it was townish to vote him?

I'd say the lack of "scumhunting hardcore" is more of a time/style thing than anything else; the last few weeks have been pretty ridiculous for me, and I'm not generally that aggressive unless I've found something really worth pushing. And who was voting certainly isn't the only place to look for information- I think response to the self-vote would probably be the most useful, and that's where I'll start my reread over the next day or two.

[Norinel]

So, my thoughts on how OMG went down.

In post 369, he essentially claims townie and puts down the antepenultimate vote on himself. He makes the case that us not knowing his alignment is more confusing than anything else, and lynching someone who the mafia/cult are pretty sure is a townie is not a bad idea. I kind of agree with him on those, except that the first point wasn't because we don't comprehend his glorious brilliance. (But that's neither here nor there)

Right after the self-vote, PP makes the same points about condescension and scummy playstyle that I and she'd been making for a while. She does talk about Elias as a viable alternative for the Day 1 lynch, which seems a little off since she hadn't talked much about him before. And Reyo just sort of agrees with that without adding anything- the points were certainly pretty good, but that wasn't useful.

But then things drift over to Elias, mostly Elias/BM/PP talking about being suspicious of Elias for voting OMG. The one thing I see scum/cult getting out of doing that is some "I told you so" points for whenever OMG did get revealed as town. I would have figured that OMG's lynch was pretty much inevitable by that point, but if they did change the lynch, then it'd be harder to get anywhere useful today. (Now that we know there's a vig, it's more likely that had we lynched Elias, Xtox might've vigged him, but scum probably didn't know that at the time)

BM brings things back to OMG by calling him as mafia, and Xtox calls him as town. Most everyone else seemed to be discussing the Elias-OMG relationship, which the scum knew wouldn't get us much of anywhere at the time, and now we know it weren't. When OMG advocates for his lynch again, Elias and I drop the hammer.

As far as the people who are still alive who had a hand in that, PP's the one who worries me the most. Her points are good overall, but it seems like she's been driving the town around quite a bit with her choice of targets and stuff, especially with OMG gone. That's a bad thing if she's scum, but the best way to figure that out is to figure out if the directions she's been pushing are worthwhile, which is hard to tell in the early game. The one thing we know for sure is that Elias wasn't a good direction.

[Norinel]

It is not only the timeframe in between the last 2 votes. It is the fact that the only post in between the two is OMG's last post. You didn't allow anyone else to respond to the situation, norinel.

What situation was there to respond to? OMG still advocating for his lynch, or Elias voting?

Okay, I made it clear, several times, that I did not think OMG was mafia. I made it clear, several times, that I felt he was town. Therefore, I did not want him to be lynched, as I felt it would be bad to go along with the lynch of someone I felt was town. I don't regret "buddying up" to him. I was right in my assumption. And I did say that I thought there was a fair amount of bad voting going around. And, as you've shown, it was because of the lack of good, strong reasons. I'm supposed to just sit back and not point out that crappy ass reasons are being thrown out, as people jump onto a bandwagon? No. I'm going to point out the fault, and hope that someone will notice a slip-up of the mafia where I did not.

But you can't just sit around waiting for someone else to come up with a good strong reason and say "No, that's bad voting" whenever anyone comes up with something. That's not going to get us anywhere, and it's not going to help the town.

[Norinel]

And how was I supposed to know Elias was a "bad direction"?

If you're anti-town, particularly mafia, then you'd know that Elias at least wasn't in your faction, and have more general info as to figuring out what his role is. (Plus, of course, you'd know that lynching him would help you regardless of Elias' actual alignment)

On the other hand, Norinel, I think your play has been more watching us play and commenting, than actually playing. Which... is scummy.

What would you consider actually playing? If it's aggressive scumhunting, I've already mentioned that that's not something I often do unless I get a strong scent. Some people need to be shaking the thread, and some people need to be poking at it.

I said that I did not like how people were jumping onto the bandwagon with such weak reasons. People jumped onto the wagon, using reasons stated by those before them, and the wagon was building up to a hammer way too fast. Someone could have waited until the L-1 vote was placed, and placed a vote in that same minute, and then said that they didn't know someone else had voted as well. What's more, when someone said that wagons can be a good thing, I agreed with them, and then stated that SPECIFICALLY that OMG one was not a good wagon. I've used wagons before. I know they can be a good thing, when properly looked after. That one was getting out of hand, at least to me, and so I said so.

The entire point of a bandwagon isn't that everyone has a really good reason to vote for the person in question. Part of the reason that bandwagons occur is that somebody having votes is in and of itself another weak reason to vote them, since three or four votes on one person is a lot more than three or four times as powerful as one vote. And your hypothetical's kind of silly- it's tough to make something look like a simulpost that isn't unless you're insanely active, and a hammerer should always receive extra scrutiny.

As for the last few posts, in a game with fixed deadlines, dahen's behavior is little more than stalling. That's worth a vote on its own.

vote: dahen

until he posts new content.

[Norinel]

How about everyone place their vote, so we can see how opinions lie. (Within reason).

I'm all for that. My vote for dahen came with a specific condition that hasn't been met yet; other than that, GW'd be at the top of my list. I said it a while back, but the little things he says keep rubbing me the wrong way, most recently:

second would be Oman, for the simple fact that when you do post, I can never read you.

Which is a slightly better reason than just for lurking, but the rest of the town isn't going to buy it. So unless you actually did vote him (or dahen, for that matter), you're still not getting us anywhere, and that seems to be the town's biggest problem at the moment.

And to summarize where I stand with everyone else: the stuff with PP I've said before, although I think we can wait until we have more information (I think mafia's more likely than cult), I don't have a good read on Reyo, I trust Xtox's claim, and nobody else is really playing at the moment. I need to look more at Reyo and the low activity people, though I don't have a lot of time over the next week or so.

[Norinel]

Norinel:

Why are you pointing me out particularly? and what do you mean by "mafia's more likely than cult"?

That was in reference to PP- if she's anti-town, I think she's more likely to be mafia than cult, so we can wait on lynching her. (Whereas we can't really wait if we have a good suspect for the cult recruiter)

[Norinel]

You could think of that early post of Oman's:

Basically, everyone claim whatever the hell you want. The best idea for townies is to claim Doctor and draw the NK. Best idea for the Doctor is to claim tonwie and draw the cult recruit.

as breadcrumbing a doc claim, one way or another, but that doesn't rule out any possibility other than maybe cult recruit. He's certainly been unhelpful, with slight tendencies towards counterhelpful recently, so given the deadline that might make him today's lynch. My vote's not going there without something more, though.

I wish I could vote Norinel at the same time as Oman.

Up to now, I just wanted to make sure everyone else realized that being literate doesn't make you town. Now I'm starting to think there's a good chance you're scum- it almost seems like you feel threatened by me for some reason, and the most obvious reason is that I'm the only one who hasn't written you off as obviously pro-town.

Strong FOS: PP

, which would probably be a vote change otherwise, but I'm not going to further spread out votes with a deadline upcoming.

So, despite the fact that previously, dahen had been at the top of your suspects list (yes, I know I was there too), you place your vote on me? Exactly what pushed me past him in your mind?

FoO has already stated that the suspects list was in the same order as the front post, and didn't reflect who he thought was scummiest. That said, since he voted with the deadline in mind, I'm surprised he didn't vote for either of the vote leaders, who were also on that same list. That is holding back the town, and also not what we need at the moment.

[Norinel]

Norinel, I am not threatened by you suspecting me. I object to your playstyle, reasoning, and you not addressing my problems with you.

Style I can't change without a significant increase in the time I can dedicate to Mafia. Reasoning and addressing your problems I can work on.

Did you ever respond to how you used your assumption that I am anti-town to prove that I am anti-town?

I wasn't making a case for you being anti-town. I was proving that it's feasible for you to be anti-town, because your playstyle could be a sign of a heavy-handed but effective (in this game, at least) anti-town strategy: emerge as the "leader" when very few people are proactive, construct and present decent arguments to earn general trust, and basically control the lynch for the entire game. It keeps us hunting down lurkers when the most daygame-dangerous scum is hiding in plain sight.

And besides, isn't posing the question the first place just proving you're pro-town by assuming you're pro-town?

[Norinel]

Thats why I don't see the reason. He has anounced that he would claim whatever. This is just so random and out of the blue that any scum/cult or whoever would know its pointless and its an unreliable claim. What I don't see is reason why he bothered to post that and not something more useful maybe?

well in fairness to him, he breadcrumbed to the extent that any other claim would have got him lynched instantly (for my part at least).

BM

Half the point of a breadcrumb is that if you don't point it out everyone else misses it, right?

I still don't believe it. He claimed that crap and is now lurking again. Hanging us in the air. Check his profile. He is posting everywhere but this game.

A claim is not an excuse for a defense. On the other hand, I don't know if the accusation is much more than stalling at this point; but even if it is, the only way out of stalling is to stop stalling. And since he's knowingly riding on the claim to keep us from lynching him... not sure if it makes him much more likely to be scum, but I'd be a lot more comfortable voting him now if that's what it came down to.

[Norinel]

I'd be willing to vote Oman if that's the way it's going to go down. I don't entirely follow the case for FoO being scum, but I could be convinced.

I might be busy tomorrow, but I should be back on Sunday afternoon at least once.

[Norinel]

We could be worse numbers-wise:
1 Mafia
1 Cult Recruiter
0-1 Cultist
4-5 Town

Could've lost majority tonight if the kills had been different, but at least it slowed the cult down. Cult could gain majority tomorrow if we don't find any of them today or tonight, but with two killing roles in play, I think there's still a good chance of bringing it down.

Partner-hunting really should help us find those first two, though. Looking over GW's Day 2 posts, he didn't really defend anyone who's still alive other than PP. (Mostly attacking FoO and dahen, with Oman thrown in at the end) If we assume that he wasn't trying to push for a last-minute lynch of the leader, and he wouldn't call out the leader so early (Plus I think PP's strategy is too risky for CR anyway), that leaves Xtox, Imat, and BM.

FoO... a lot of OMG, a lot of lurker stuff early in Day 1. Pretty heavy on GSGold (Now BM), but there was some pretty interesting back-and-forth with Reyo too- listing them as a major contributor and one of the most townie. And there's the list of suspicion on 546, but where a partner would wind up in that is so WIFOM it hurts.

Reyo/Imat wound up in both those, which is interesting. I'll throw an

FOS: Imat

out, and I'll need to reread Reyo once I'm back from this weekend. (V/LA until Sunday)

[Norinel]

Quick impressions, since I'm on vacation:

So BM's backed off on cop claim, and Imat claimed no power (And thus probably townie?)

On the one hand, BM coming out this hard against Imat reads kind of like a play for a fast lynch, since there's a lot of stuff against Reyo anyway. One the other hand, mafia-BM would need more than just today's mislynch to have a chance, cult-recruiter-BM probably has a recruit to send out on a limb, and cult-recruit-BM would mean that the cult recruited a claimed cop under some suspicion last Night.

And lynching the last mafia is dangerous, but it only leads to a cult auto-win if cult recruited last night, cult recruits successfully tonight, and we don't vig a cultist tonight.

[Norinel]

It's a slip, and it's tricky to fake a slip like that, but it's also possible that Imat was scum and hadn't looked over Day 2 to see what was up with the vigkills. And he did manage to switch from that position to "Its all well and good that 2 groups happened to target the same person, but what were the odds of that." by his next post without that mistake being brought up or prompted.

And as I said before, I can see BM as reaching, but if he's scum, what kind of scum is he? Mafia and CR can't afford to stick their neck out this far just to maybe get one mislynch (Plus the CR probably has a cultist to make the sacrifice for him), and there's no way cult would've recruited a claimed cop last night when they could probably come up with better targets. He hadn't even been under enough pressure to merit a desperation play.

The Cop-claim was a gambit to get me NKed. But the fact that the scum didnt know this, concerns me as to why i wasnt killed, or Oman wasnt killed.

I'd guess that either the scum didn't trust the claims that were out there or they didn't feel threatened by the town power roles. (Or they're trying to confuse us, which gets WIFOMy) The two unconfirmable claims were from two of the scummier players, and two of the people who'd talked the most about fakeclaiming in this setup, after all. Or maybe the scum's a GF, and knows that the cop and/or vig can't directly harm them.

[Norinel]

Norinel: You say that BM tries to get a quick lynch since there is "a lot of stuff anyway" against Reyo. What exactly is the stuff you refer do?

For actual evidence, about what PP said. Also, since Reyo was a top suspect for several people anyway, he'd be an appealing target for an easy lynch.

Oh and ftr, i'm pretty sure i know who the CR is. But i'm not revealing it until we've nailed the final goon.

Withholding that kind of information as town makes no sense at all; knocking out the CR all but disables one of the anti-town factions, and would give us a lot of time to identify the mafia and any lingering recruits. Is this just another bluff?

And I was about to comment on this bit from last page, but the claimchange kind of makes it redundant:

BM, if the cult sucessfully recruited last night, which I think likely, then lynching the mafia means the cult win tonight if the sucessfully recruit again.

[Norinel]

Looking back at Norinel's posts I think he perpetuated the problems with OMG, and he also hammered at the end of day in a suspicious way (I have already commented about how I think his hammer was weird).

Early on, I was trying to keep the town from falling into the trap of just talking about him and trying to talk OMG down or convince him that his behavior wasn't helping the town- you took a pretty similar tack at first. We talked about the timing of the hammer yesterday, but by that point it was clear he wasn't going to change, he wasn't helping the town, he expected to be lynched, and we'd been waffling over his suicide vote for more than a page.

Now, I could be wrong here because Norinel does say he's suspicious of GW, but I think this post is pushing GW to vote dahen (the person Norinel is voting for at that time). It seems to me like coaching GW. It is hidden behind saying he's also suspicious of GW, but notice how he never voted GW. I think that is Norinel's way of hiding how he directs GW's vote.

And please note, in the next post, GW VOTES DAHEN. It was like Norinel gave advice and GW followed his directions. The post numbers are 622 and 623 if anyone wants to look for themselves.

Easy hole in this one- cult can communicate during the day:

You may communicate with your recruits during the Day, and the cult may communicate with new recruits as soon as I let you know they are recruited.

I also am wondering what Norinel meant when he said to me:

Being literate doesn't make you town

That's going along with the idea that if you're scum, you're playing as the authoritative-sounding one, who decently presents decent arguments that happen to lead the town everywhere except where they need to go.

Also, Norinel said:

Imat claimed no power

I don't really know where he claimed no power, or how it is at all townish to point this out.

That's a stretch- at that point, I was just trying to sort out all the new info. And even if I had malicious intentions, how would it help the cult for me to point it out? If I were CR and had a townie spotted, nobody'd need to know except for me. (And if I were a cultist, I could PM the leader) Incidentally, the claim was in here, with the idea that Imat had sent the killchoice without reading the thread: (emphasis mine)

Do you honestly think Mafia would be selfish enough to leave a replacement, who hadn't read, to decide the NK? Honestly, giving the choice would not be Selfish.

But thats all a moot point because I Don't have a night ability.

And with a claimed Cop, Vig, and Doc, I doubt all of them are telling the truth. I think that would be tweaked in Town's favor a bit much, but I've never played Cults.

I think you still have shots left. I think you're lying about that.

To be honest, I'd had the same thought, but it doesn't do the town any good to point it out. Xtox is town, so if he's lying it'd be for a good reason- and the remaining bad guys having little idea another nightkill's coming is a really good reason.

[Norinel]

But, Xtoxm is missing 2 things. Firstly, his vig kills give us a greater chance of hitting the cult-something we wont have if we let the mafioso live. Secondly, his stats is WAY off. The odds of the cult winning tonight is in reality infinitely tiny. In fact, the most probable scenario is that the CR is currently alone, and may not even recruit tonight.

I think it's pretty likely the Cult recruited last night. Even with the info I have, I've had a handful of people at least pegged as not a power role for a while, and with the CR knowing who's cult, that's a lot more to go on. Plus, all the power role claims probably drew any doc protection from good cult recruits.

[Norinel]

I'd be willing to vote, it'd probably now go to Imat. I think lynching someone we're pretty sure is the last goon isn't a good idea, but I think that there's a good enough chance of Imat being CR to be worth it.

[Norinel]

Wait, what? lynching the last goon isn't worth it? Have you ever been in a game where its worth it to risk being NKed just to keep the Mafia in the game?

Actually, I almost have, but I had to dig a bit to find it- Post-It Mafia. Basically, it's a mini that got down to 3 Mafia, 1 SK, and 3 town. I came out with info that proved who the SK was and mafia quicklynched the SK to win immediately. The mafia now is in a similar situation to what the SK was in then.

But how did you go in three posts from "Lynching the last goon isn't worth it?" to advocating for a scum claim? Either you understand why lynching Mafia could be a bad idea right now, you're pro-town and just don't get it, or you're anti-town and trying to confuse us.

I know referencing ongoing games isnt allowed, but i figure referring to comments let slip in mafia discussion shouldnt be a problem.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 5&start=23

Now to put this into context, Norinel is modding CultAfia- a large cult game. But he refers to 'several' cult games, and i think unless ive missed something pretty major here, he is including this one, and thus letting slip that he is the Cult Recruiter here.

Yes, I was referring to this game when I said that, since it's an example of someone specifically trying to deal with the considerations of a cult game. That has nothing to do with my role here; if it did, I wouldn't have posted it in MD.

I'd be willing to vote, it'd probably now go to Imat. I think lynching someone we're pretty sure is the last goon isn't a good idea, but I think that there's a good enough chance of Imat being CR to be worth it.

Could you pony up some proof about Imat being CR? You're just throwing that out there with not even a vague idea of why you think that's true.

As I've kind of said before, I don't have time to reread the entire thread and pull out a bunch of quotes every time I make a statement. In short, the arguments already put forth about Imat/Reyo being anti-town are stronger than the arguments pointing to them specifically being Mafia.

In particular, people are focusing on last night's kill, but since the replacement was announced during the night, it's easy WIFOM to make a irrational-seeming kill to throw suspicion on the replacement. Going after the claimed power roles might not have even been a reasonable play regardless, since, like I said before, the two people claiming the strongest power roles were the two people who'd talked the most about town fakeclaiming.

And, of course, if the main reason people don't think Imat's the CR is that they think I am, I at least know that they're wrong in that regard, and have argued against the points that've come up.

[Norinel]

Meaning people are 100% sure I'm Mafia despite evidence saying I'm not.

What evidence is there?

But I'm not too worried about that- here are the bits of that post that struck me as almost a confession:

Ah, well, I suppose Townies have to be COMPLETELY incorrect sometimes in order for the Mafia to have a chance of winning. Yeah, thats right BM, I'm saying you and your lackies are COMPLETELY incorrect, in capital letters even.

I, personally, got the latter, though I'm slightly biased due to the fact that the Town is COMPLETELY incorrect.

Which reads to me like admitting that the bulk of the pressure on him is from town. That's not a conclusion I see a pro-town player getting to, especially when only a couple people are after him.

vote: Imat

[Norinel]

I know we got atleast one more power townie with me.

That's actually quite important- two power roles, one mafia, and one CR only leaves one recruitable townie left. So the cult can't be bigger than two people; still means that lynching the last mafia could be an instant lose, but it could be worse.

[Norinel]

Augh, quote pyramids. To clarify, when I said:

That's actually quite important- two power roles, one mafia, and one CR only leaves one recruitable townie left. So the cult can't be bigger than two people; still means that lynching the last mafia could be an instant lose, but it could be worse.

"It could be worse" referred to the overall situation (The maximum cult size), not the specifics of lynching the last mafia.

Dont be stupid. Norinel is as close to confirmed CR as you're ever likely to get. Did you not READ anything that was discussed yesterday???

Half of the points raised against me were absurd, and I've already addressed the rest. Saying something over and over again doesn't make it true.

[Norinel]

Claim first: I'm a cop, can detect cult, innocents on Xtox, BM, and PP in that order. Given BM's behavior recently, I wouldn't be surprised if I were naive.

Half of the points raised against me were absurd, and I've already addressed the rest.

Giving up already?

Not at all. Here's the entirety of yesterday's "proof" that I'm CR:

1. I supposedly pushed the OMG problems Day 1, and hammered under odd circumstances.
2. I made "coaching" comments to GW Day 2, trying to advise him how to behave more pro-town.
3. I mentioned in MD that this game was interesting as a cult game.

I addressed point 1 yester-Day:

Looking back at Norinel's posts I think he perpetuated the problems with OMG, and he also hammered at the end of day in a suspicious way (I have already commented about how I think his hammer was weird).

Early on, I was trying to keep the town from falling into the trap of just talking about him and trying to talk OMG down or convince him that his behavior wasn't helping the town- you took a pretty similar tack at first. We talked about the timing of the hammer yesterday, but by that point it was clear he wasn't going to change, he wasn't helping the town, he expected to be lynched, and we'd been waffling over his suicide vote for more than a page.

Plus, I'd argue that such a risky and attention-drawing play would be suicide as CR, when you don't necessarily have any allies and getting lynched/investigated/vigged basically means game over. Point 2 is entirely void for the simple reason that the cult can talk during the day, and tying point 3 to my role in this game is entirely ridiculous.

Nobody has provided any reasons since then; people (Mostly BM) have pretty much been asserting that I'm CR with no case whatsoever.

So who do you want to lynch today, Norinel?

Well, I believe your claim, and I believe my claim, so that's the PRs covered and the scum must be among dahen/BM/Oman. I don't think three PRs makes sense balance-wise unless the mafia have a major trick up their sleeves, which would make dahen some sort of scum. My best guess now (But I'd need to read some more to sort it out) is dahen Mafia and one of BM or Oman the CR who recruited the other last night.

Strategy-wise, I think dahen's scenarios are pretty good; a cult or townie lynch today is the only way the town can win, so I'd be up for a BM/Oman lynch. But he's missing something critical- it takes three votes to lynch today, and if the cult's got two people the town doesn't have a majority. But since any lynch basically hands the game to one faction (Or ensures a mutual loss), there doesn't seem to be any way to pull off a lynch today.

[Norinel]

To clarify: I can detect mafia or cult, and I only question my sanity because not being guaranteed sane was explicitly mentioned in my PM and BM has been behaving ridiculously. But if we have to assume BM's townie to have a chance at winning, I could be sane after all.

Do I really need to go over why my claim is consistent with my behavior all game? I've said it once, so I'll say it again: Every argument raised in thread about me being CR (Or any sort of scum, really) is terrible. I've addressed every single one as it's come up, and nobody's been able to deal with my refutations, other than PP, who just decided that my playstyle is scummy, and BM, who just ignores the logic and keeps saying I'm CR.

In the case where there's a majority town, I think BM or dahen are most likely to be telling the truth, so Oman'd be a good lynch regardless. The nurse claim is too desparate a play, really.

[Norinel]

There's a difference between "or" and "and". Here, it's an exclusive or- obviously, whichever of you and BM isn't telling the truth is the other scum. (And I suppose I omitted the implied "in addition to me and Xtox") If it weren't for the investigation result, I'd say it was almost certainly BM for reaching and overconfidence in Imat yesterday and me yesterday and today.

Night 1, I investigated Xtox mostly because the person he replaced wasn't active enough to get a good read, but Xtox was active enough to want to be able to trust (or not). Night 2 was BM because the cop claim could have just as easily been a townie gambit or a scum gambit, and counterclaiming in the former case could've been disasterous. Night 3 was PP because I thought even if she weren't scum to begin with (Which I was sort of suspecting before), there was a good chance she'd been recruited Night 2, since the PR claims would've drawn any doc protection and pretty much everyone other than me considered her obviously town.

[Norinel]

Heh. Now I realize what you're all missing. If you assume BM's townie, and lynch anyone but the recruiter (Me, for instance), BM gets recruited, and then we're back into those impossible scenarios. Which means that, even if BM's a townie now, he's playing to get recruited and win/tie with the cult. (Unless he honestly thinks I'm CR, which I do doubt)

The lack of a single coherent argument against me other than "I guess dahen and BM are town" is still kind of depressing. And being drug along until the endgame because I always wind up looking scummy is why I went on that hiatus in the first place...

[Norinel]

Good game, everyone. I suppose it's doubly MoS'ed when you get lynched because the town thinks you're cult and the cult thinks you're town... I even had some arguments ready to prove I was Mafia (Mostly based on my Day 3 play; I was even dropping some intentional hints by that point), but I couldn't pull that out when there was a good chance of three town left.

As far as PP goes- I meant it when I said I thought she was recruited N2, and I'm surprised to see that I got recruited then.

I think this town got insanely lucky that BM chose incorrectly for his night choices. I thought BM played a great game and cant believe he was able to talk himself out of the Cop fake Claim.

Yeh...Town should listen to their cleared vig more

Not to rub in too much...

Yeah, I was pretty much agreeing with your scumdar for the latter part of the game, but couldn't openly support you too much or the town would get rid of the cult with time left to lynch me.