Mini 568 - Nubigena (Game over!)

[jerubbaal]

Vote: Incognito

[jerubbaal]

I hope you learned your lesson about being an idiot last time. Try to actually devote some time and attention to the game instead of flailing around ridiculously. And claiming this early is bad, because your job as a vanilla townie is to draw kills away from power roles. I guess it wasn't much of a loss this time, because I don't think you're a priority target in anyone's book, but do think before speaking.

What's your rolename again? Be specific. (and nobody feed him answers)

After my extensive and rigorous metagaming of the 4 or so games avinashv has joined in something like a week's time (crazy noob), I'm going to

Unvote, Vote: Lowell

[jerubbaal]

I'm not committing on whether I believe mafiaplayer's roleclaim at the moment, I just want him to answer my question (which he notably did not).

Mafiaplayer, what is you actual role name (at the top of your PM)?

In my estimation, he's actually making some sense this game, even if it's completely wrong sense with this LAP crap. Last game, he wanted to lynch Star for the accents on her name.

My meta on Lowell is simply that he's in another game with avinashv, in which consensus seems to be that avinashv is town. So he has additional motivation to kill someone who knows his playstyle and seems to be competent at the game. Scum tend to kill people they know might be threats, and there's some basis of knowledge here.

I believe there was someone else in the thread (don't recall who, I'll post it up in a minute) who was in a thread with avinashv, but the thread was on something like page 2. It's possible to have a read on page 2, but pretty unlikely enough to warrant killing. Or they could simply have killed avinashv because they recognized his name and didn't want overlap between their games.

[jerubbaal]

the_cat_herder was the other one.

[jerubbaal]

Top left corner of the box in your role PM, what is it? You have something there, I guarantee.

[jerubbaal]

I don't see the point in asking players for the exact name of their role. The mod has listed the townsperson role pm in one of the opening posts. It does however make me wonder why Sammich has chosen to vouch for Mafiaplayer.

This was the point, but I was pretty willing to bet mafiaplayer was not aware of this. I was hoping he would try to claim something close, but not quite. I'm actually moderately inclined to believe him, because he did phrase it correctly before anyone actually pointed out that it was in the initial post. Sammich is probably fine too, I'm reading the claim as townie. Both get "stoopid townie" points, but I think they're both townie.

Anyhow, absolutely no more claiming. Hemhorraging information into the thread this early really only benefits scum and gains the town very little. Having two confirmed-ish vanillas doesn't really help the town very much at all, other than to avoid lynching stupids day 1. We've dealt the best we can with these claims, and I think we can move on to other issues. Harm done, but hopefully not much.


Imat is fearmongering like hell (I really hate using that as a tell, but this actually seems like one of the few legitimate uses of it) with his whole "Woe be to the town" post. And then he calms down pretty much immediately and goes all analytical, not seemingly worried anymore about the irreparable harm done to the town. I think we have a winner.

Unvote, Vote:Imat

[jerubbaal]

Eh, Sammich's is a little more suspect, now that I read it again, because he said that his role PM just called him a townie, but I'm still reading it as a pretty town response. He wants to justify the other townie who has claimed without a specific rolename. If he was scum, I doubt he'd want to vouch for mafiaplayer.

[jerubbaal]

Reading both Imat and Near as incredibly scummy at the moment, although lately Near has been much worse. Near, what do you think of everyone in the game? Go through and do an evaluation of where everyone stands in your estimation.

Getting mixed signals from Sammich, so I'm really not sure what to do with him yet. Regardless, there are better trees to bark up at the moment. Like Near.

Reading Y as town. He's got a bit of the self-righteous townie thing going. Some people can manufacture it, but it's usually genuine.

[jerubbaal]

You all are giving mafiaplayer way too much credit. He's really just a complete newb at this. Last time we lynched him, partially because we couldn't believe he could be so stupid, but trust me, he is. He's one of the newbs who's almost impossible to figure out, because the more traditional tells don't work because he doesn't actually have any comprehensible logic to his action. I'm still reading him as fairly townie.

At the moment, I'm more suspicious of the Sammich wagon than Sammich himself. It's really the quintessential day 1 scum wagon, going off on a newb for being stupid and growing much to fast. I'll actually give Imat some credit for realizing that Sammich was too close to being lynched and backing off. I'm still really reading Near as the most scummy at the moment by far. He's doing the whole sniping thing + riding the popular wagons uncomfortably close to lynch. He doesn't seem like an idiot townie, and these are definitely scum tells for anyone's who's not an idiot.

Unvote, Vote: Near

[jerubbaal]

I actually have a reputation? That's a new one on me.

Mafiaplayer is completely useless. He wouldn't be a bad value lynch, all things told, because scum won't kill him and we absolutely don't want to have to worry about him in the endgame. Still he gave the exact answer for the role title, and I'm almost positive that he did not read the first post. Not airtight, but a strong indicator.

@Near - the "too townie" argument is completely crap. You're obviously OMGUSing (I wouldn't necessarily call that a scum tell for newbies all the time). You're still flailing about trying to find something to stick. This is pretty consistent with your MO thus far.

[jerubbaal]

If we can substantiate that MP's stupidity is even possibly intentional, I think we should lynch him, just for the incredibly high value of the lynch. Also, if he's being deliberately stupid, that entirely invalidates my point about him knowing the townsperson thing. At the moment, I'm pretty sure that he's aware of his stupidity, even if he denies it.

Have you not learned from last game? I act stupid, I wind up getting lynched, townies lose game. Can't you folks learn?

If you know you're acting stupid MP, just shut up and let the people who want to play the game play the game. Either take this game fairly seriously or do us all a favor and replace out.

I hate value lynches, because they almost never tell us anything about who might be scum, but I might be willing to make an exception here. I'm going to do some work combing over MP's posting history and see if I can convince myself he's being deliberate about this. Honestly, he needs to die sometime, and the mafia's not going to do the job for us here, and I'd rather spend a lynch on an informationless day 1 then a lynch sometime down the road when we have more solid leads.

[jerubbaal]

Looked over MP's short meta (you all should as well, to substantiate this), and I'm convinced that it's rather possible that MP is just screwing around here. He has at least indicated that he has played mafia on other sites before, and that in and of itself dismisses him from being a complete idiot newb. It's looking better as a value lynch, even if he ends up being town. At his best, he has approximately the value of a malicious neutral, and does nothing to further our ability to win the game. Anyhow, if we keep berating him, maybe he'll get sick of it.

I know we can't force him to replace out, but is there any sort of probation list where Mods can decline to allow a player to play in their games? I honestly would be extremely unhappy to ever end up in a game with MP again, and quite honestly, would probably replace out. We're going to have to either waste a lynch on him or just deal with him messing up the game the whole way. Destructor, if there is any reasonable way we can consider getting MP out of this game, without violating any rules, could you please consider it?


Anyhow, on to other players. Did a read through, and I'm finding thephantom's very small contribution to the game quite suspect, especially his last post:

Hey guys, sorry that I haven't been very active in the game since my last posts, Midterms are coming up and I have a lot of studying to do so I am sorry, I have been reading over the thread though and I feel that it is possible that Mafiaplayer isn't scum and maybe he is just playing poorly. That does not rule out my suspicion of him though.

He's basically saying "MP might be scum and he might not." Woo, insight. This is a very typical early scum move towards a developing stupid newbie train.

[jerubbaal]

It's not just his "playstyle," if he's deliberately messing up the game, I am interested in having him gone. If we have something better to go on, I happily lynch someone with a higher likelihood of being scum, but MP's presence in this game is decidedly detrimental to the town, and I for one would consider our chances of winning rather slim if this game runs long and MP is still alive. The order of the day is still scumhunting, but the decision we have to make today is the decision which helps the town the most. If we don't have any very strong tells, it's hard to argue that eliminating him would not be immensely helpful.

I have played with Adel before, and comparing her to mafiaplayer is entirely off (have read snippets of the others, and this statement holds for those readings as well). Adel's playstyle rubs a lot of people wrong, because she deliberately withholds her methods (amongst other things) and is fond of gambits, but there is a definite method to her madness. I can see no method to mafiaplayer's madness other than the screw with the players as much as possible. It really does seem like he is deliberately spouting confused logic into the thread.

Mafiaplayer, would you mind linking us to some past games, or even just mention the sites which you played on (and the nick, if it was different)?


Responses from other notable scummies, esp. Near and thephantom, is required as well. You can't duck beneath this MP mess.

[jerubbaal]

Sorry, MP. Didn't realize that that was against the rules. My bad. Desctructor hasn't done anything, so I don't think that he will.

[jerubbaal]

Pretty sure MP claimed vanilla. If he's actually town, it seems very unlikely that he'd be anything else.

Near, I made it quite clear that the meta evidence I cited to vote Lowell the first time was extremely minor. Do learn to recognize sarcasm in type, it makes the game much more fun when people don't get anal about it. Voting on minor stuff is good play in the early game, you can't get reactions unless you poke people.

On the other hand, you're still exuding scum tells. Setting up that either/or/both situation is something you see newbscum do all the time to try to limit the town's focus. Plus your reasoning is entirely speculative, with absolutely no basis. The reaching continues. As well as the OMGUS.

[jerubbaal]

Oh, so you take issue with all kinds of dice voting? I thought it was more because of the fact that he used actual, real-life dice as opposed to the ones provided by the site.

Dice voting in real life

IS

scummy.

Thinking/setting up a complicated system to decide on who to vote between 11 people in real life to accomplish nothing

IS

scummy or the person in action is psychotic.

Despite still thinking that Near is scummy as hell, I really like this point. I think the timeframe thing is largely irrelevant, as it's certainly possible to go through the motions in the time allotted. The whole thing really reads like someone who is obsessed with coming up with an explanation how fair and planned out their dice system was. Honestly. Two die rolls and a coin flip to randomly vote someone (yourself?) is simply ridiculous. There would be a vote here, but the wagon's quite far enough along by itself.

Sammich, did you actually go through the process that you outlined before, or was it just a joke vote?

[jerubbaal]

Nah, there are some things that people do which are always scummy, like lie. LAL is a good rule.

You seem to be taking quite a bit of offense at a very minor point. You also assume that everything the scum do, they do deliberately. Perhaps that's the case with good scum, but not with most.

[jerubbaal]

LAL is an excellent rule, at least for normals. When you get into wacky specialties and stuff like that, it gives some townies legitimate reasons for lying, but in games that only use basic roles, only scum have real reason to lie. The only exception to this I can think of would be a doc claiming vanilla in the event of a mass-claim, or maybe masons, because they can confirm each other. LAL is also part of the significant reason why early mass-claims usually suck for the town. You're forcing your power roles to lie or get killed, it's a bad situation to put them in.

[jerubbaal]

Unvote

My faith in MP's vanilla claim is rapidly deteriorating.

Anywho, I for one think it is fairly relevant. If he did make the whole thing up, it shows an over-concern for justifying himself, something more inherent to scum than townies. Not full-proof, but I'd be strongly inclined to think that he was scum if he purely made it up to justify himself. The intricacy/inanity of it inclines me to believe that it was made up.

XRX, I'm curious why you're dissing this whole investigation now. You did bring it up in the first place.

[jerubbaal]

Didn't catch the stuff about the night start before, but I actually find that hugely relevant. The only people to whom the night 0 was significant were power roles and scum, and Sammich has claimed to be vanilla. That kind of narrows the options.

My read on Near has become somewhat jumbled. This Sammich thing is interesting though, because after jumping around at several targets and making half-assed cases, he's finally latched on to something which he perceives as having some support. This isn't completely scummy, but it is common scum MO to follow the support day 1.

[jerubbaal]

Modus operandi (pretty sure that's the right Latin), i.e. method of operating.

[jerubbaal]

Near, I actually agree with you on the relevance of the dice-rolling thing. I don't think he's been back on since you phrased your question clearly.


Rip, I did have a reason for placing the vote on Lowell, but it wasn't anything I would take to the gallows. If I got a reaction which was out of character with the seriousness of the charge, I would take that as scummy, but the charge itself had little weight.

I don't believe I ever used Near's inability to read my sarcasm as an attack against him. A rebuke, perhaps, because it's really not fun when people can't understand sarcasm, but this has nothing to do with any evaluation of Near's scumminess so far.

[jerubbaal]

Wow, you just really don't get sarcasm, do you?

[jerubbaal]

There is no jester. Mods who play jesters, especially in things like mini-normals, get their babies taken away and fed to wild animals. Seriously, you cannot play like everyone who does something idiotic could be a jester. Although the suggestion does move me to think that there's definitely a possibility that both Near and Sammich could be scum, a possibility which I had largely discounted before.

[jerubbaal]

Well, this game just got infinitely better.

I would not be at all surprised to see Near throw a scumbuddy with Sammich's apparent lack of sense under the bus if it kept him from getting lynched. The jester comment does look very much like an attempt to get off the wagon without releasing his previously expressed suspicions.

As we're inching closer to the deadline, I'm liking Near for the lynch. Sammich's early confirm of mafiaplayer's claim still reads quite townie to me. ATM, I'm thinking that Sammich lied about the dice-claim, but it was most likely just to keep from admitting that he lied about his random vote. Could be scummy, could just be town not wanting to look bad. Regardless, the support of MP's claim doesn't seem like a great scum-move, so I'm betting he's townie.

Vote: Near

There's a chance I might not have connection for most of the week next week. I'll try to read up whenever I get the chance, but I might not be able to post until Thurs.

[jerubbaal]

Pretty sure Near's not voting Near, and I am. Just to make it clear.

I didn't accuse Near of throwing his buddy under the bus, I merely stated it was a possibility. And it is. I still don't quite know what to make of the whole likely lying about the dice thing, but weighed against his action regarding MP's claim, I'm liking him as more townie than scum, at least compared to Near.

My reads are really middling on a lot of the other players here, and I'm not really willing to make a stand until we have a bit more information, and I think Near's lynch gives us quite a bit of that as well. People have been discussing him all day, and it'd be nice to know his alignment, as well as there being a fairly strong likelihood of him being scum.

[jerubbaal]

I'm inclined to take Sammich dropping as a fairly major point against him. It's not an airtight scumtell, but bailing under heavy pressure day 1 does seem to be more of a scum thing than a town thing, and I'm inclined to hold it against him. If he does come out being scum, I think the odds of Near being scum are considerably lower. I'm seeing more bad OMGUS than malice in his posting as of late.

Just got back from my mission trip, and I'll be gone at a wedding until Sunday. Sorry I haven't been keeping up as much as I should, but I should have more of a chance after this weekend.

I actually agree a lot with Lowell's reads, excepting Near. Him and Sammich top my scum list, although I suppose they're both unlikely to be scum.

For now,

Unvote: Near, Vote: Niv

[jerubbaal]

Hehe, I suppose your spelling is the same on any site, Niv. Do try, please.

Dropping under pressure is a terribly scummy thing to do. Townies get pissed and do mean-spirited things like self-lynch to screw the town, they don't usually just drop. He was evasive, and then dropped. This is really textbook immature scum play for day 1. I really like him for the lynch.

Mizzy, no one's being a goober and going for the quicklynch. I hate to say it, but Niv can't really address the point of Sammich dropping under pressure, and that's the primary point against him in my mind at this point. If Niv acts scummy, I'll be happy to heap on those reasons to the case against Sammich, but even if he's under his best behavior, none of it can explain away Sammich's actions. I think it's quite sufficient to lynch him. I'd be happy to get Niv's thoughts before we push for the lynch, but I'm not exactly expecting them to be unbiased. Currently, all he's done is push for the other prominent lynch target, which a scum joining the game late would never, ever do [yes, this is sarcasm, for the reading impaired].

[jerubbaal]

My evaluation of Sammich at this point frankly has nothing to do with Niv, nor can it. Sammich followed a pattern of behavior which is possibly to explain by rl getting in the way, yes, but in my experience evasion+dropping under pressure has almost always been a scum MO, especially a bad scum MO. Even before he actually dropped, he was doing the whole spiteful "well, I've got real life stuff to deal with, so screw your questions" thing. It's possible to explain it with Sammich as a townie, just much harder. I think the odds strongly lean towards Sammich being scum, regardless of what Niv does.

Yes, I know it sucks/is somewhat unfair to Niv, but dropping just screws everybody. I don't know what you're whining about, Mizzy, you're actually on the top of the confirmed list thanks to your idiot predecessor. Again, nobody's trying to quicklynch Niv, but he effectively can't touch Sammich's action in this game.

I think using word plus copy/paste might be a good way to go, Niv.

[jerubbaal]

It's based on Sammich's play, though Niv hasn't really made much of an effort with the role, and even though he was put into a very difficult stuation, had he been town I think he might have tried harder.

QFT

Let's get this ball rolling. Maybe we can actually get a response if we dump on some pressure. Niv's play is increasing my conviction about Sammich.

[jerubbaal]

If Mizzy is MP, then she's pretty much clear. I think she's acted very within the bounds of normal townie behavior today as well, so she's probably the bottom of my list ATM.

I think we should give Niv a couple days to respond, but if he doesn't soon, just lynch him and we can get on with it.

[jerubbaal]

I like the claim. It actually fits with a fair bit of Near's dialogue recently, and his insistence on factuality and not speculation, yada-yada. I'd picked up some cop tells in his writing, and him actually claiming a slightly nerfed cop makes a lot of sense. Similarly, this is an easy claim to confirm down the road. If we have a real cop claim or die, we can pretty much off Near right away, and similarly, we can test his results as we go along. So everyone voting Near, unvote now. This really isn't debatable. It's not in our best interest to lynch him right away, if at all.

We still need Niv to come back on and claim and we can deal with that. Til then, I dunno.

Really don't like Y's response to this whole mess. As in really, really don't like. As in, if we can't lynch Niv, I'd be completely happy lynching him.

[jerubbaal]

I'm stupid, forgot about the whole vanilla thing in the beginning. I'm not finding it a compelling enough reason not to lynch, and since we have FOUR DAYS TO THE DEADLING (since destructor's note is rather subtle), we should proceed with a Niv lynch. I'm not sure on my agenda tomorrow, but Y is definitely near the top of the list, followed somewhere by Ripley and Imat.

Going into night, I'd just like to make the note that gunsmith is effectively cop. Just thought you'd like to know in case there was any confusion/hesitation on this subject.

[jerubbaal]

If Near's not actually the cop, someone knows it. This claim is completely testable, and we can be almost completely certain about it when/if we lynch him. The cop knows that he's guilty, if he's not the cop, and we can nail him whenever his story falls apart. If he's scum, he's put himself in a very awkward position.

The confusion in phraseology, either being loaded or unloaded or having a gun or not, makes the claim somewhat weak. Near, if you could, can you tell us as precisely as you can (do not quote your role PM) how your role functions. Be very clear on the language.

[jerubbaal]

Eh, the language is still logically inconsistent, but regardless, it's a very testable claim, and if a cop/smith dies or credibly claims at any point, we can just lynch him. If he's scum, the most he gets out of this claim is a couple days. We can deal with it much better later when we have more information. There is absolutely no advantage to lynching him now. We are quickly running out of time, so we either need to proceed with the Niv lynch or run up a quick wagon on Y.

Niv seems to have more or less completely checked out of this game, which is exactly what I would expect from someone who replaced into a game as a scum who was under heavy suspicion. I've done it myself before, and you don't feel like you really have any accountability for your loss, because it was the other guy who did you in, so you don't try. I'm completely fine with his lynch.

[jerubbaal]

Need one more for the lynch people. I don't want this going to deadline.

Pretty sure mizzy qualified the reason why she wasn't voting for ooba. We have to deal with Near first. I'm willing to bet someone out there knows he's lying, if he's lying. Regardless, it's better to deal with this down the road.

[jerubbaal]

He's lazy dead scum. We need to do this, tomorrow's the deadline.

[jerubbaal]

Go town, play smart, bring it home.

[jerubbaal]

Hey all, been following along somewhat, so I don't have too much to catch up on. I'll look things over and try to have a more detailed read, but most of my thoughts have been on the Near situation lately.

If we have a cop other than Near, he needs to claim today and we need to deal with that first. If we mislynch today, we're in lylo tomorrow and trusting such a claim becomes exponentially more difficult. I haven't liked Near's play at all. The early thing with the promise of a guilty result looks like an abandoned plan rather than a genuine gambit.

I'd be happy lynching Lowell, if there's not a counterclaim for Near. I have a fairly scummy read on him at this point. I'm leaning very town on Mizzy and Incog, can't deal with Y until we deal with Near. Middling reads on gorckat, Ripley, and ooba.

Mizzy, I think lynching Y is an awful idea.

If Near is lying, and you think so, you should vote him. I find it unlikely that Near (a) fake-claimed, and (b) brought a scumbuddy with him in the plan (I, for one, would pixelate myself, travel through the computer wires, and appear in my scumbuddy's house to punch him in the face if he were to do that to me).

So, even if Near IS lying, I have absolutely no doubt that the person he "cleared" IS actually innocent. If Near is lying, KILL NEAR, not Y.

The ONLY scenario I can see is if Y is a godfather (unlikely, given the flavor of the game thusfar) or if Near is naive, or insane, or something (also unlikely in a mini). Not impossible, I guess, but is that really the best you can come up with?

This actually looks like a scumbuddy getting pissed off at a scumbuddy who did exactly what he said would be so dumb. This actually goes along with my theory about the aborted guilty. I'm betting Near changed the plan and decided to clear a scumbuddy instead. Disclaimer:

hugely speculative[/b], but it reads this way to me.

I am absolutely going to laugh my arse off if my meta in the early game is actually right.

Also note - this speculation on Near being something other than cop is useless. He's either cop or he isn't. Unless they're something demented, mods aren't going to include a non-sane cop in a mini-normal, especially with what so far seems to be an underpowered town in a night start.

Ugh, Y is using the "I'm really active, stop whining" approach. No likey. This has to wait until tomorrow, but I have a scummy read on Y, which might be influencing my whole Near conspiracy theory. Read with a grain of salt.

Honestly, Near dropping/ditching makes me very wary of him as well.

I'll be in Chicago for my girlfriend's graduation from Thurs night to Sat afternoon, so I'll be happy to hammer Lowell Sat night if we haven't had a counterclaim yet.

[jerubbaal]

braaaaaainsssss

Read the mod's post, I'm replacing Imat.

[jerubbaal]

Tis true. I guess we need someone else ready to hammer before deadline.

[jerubbaal]

Y's logic is disjointed, to be charitable.

If we have a cop, CLAIM!!! This situation is incredibly awkward, because two of my scummiest reads right now are the uncounterclaimed cop and his innocent result.

Gor, Y, Near, Ripley, you're the ones not voting on Lowell. Are you alright with a Lowell lynch if we're closing on deadline, and will you hammer if necessary?

I actually just realized that we don't even have a claim from Lowell, despite him being at -1 for quite a while now.

Claim now

[jerubbaal]

I wasn't expecting a hammer now. You should have waited at least until we could have confirmed there was not a counterclaim for Near out there. I guess we have to deal with that tomorrow.

We're not killing any innocents to test Near. I'm almost positive there's some sort of inspection role in this town, because there has to be something to balance out the night start. If Near remains uncounterclaimed, he's our cop, and that's it, as little as I like his play.

Since we'll know how much to trust you in a minute, Lowell, why are you positive gor is scum?

FYI all, we're in twilight, so get out anything you need to get out before we go to night.

[jerubbaal]

We are in lylo, so I think a full-claim is in order. We can go from there. I suggest that Y should propose a claim order and we'll follow that, because he's the closest thing to a confirmed townie we've got. There is the chance that he's a GF, but if that's the case, I don't think we can win this. A GF in addition to the night start would seem to lean the scenario very heavily for the scum.

I'm going to work on a read-through, but I'm considering Mizzy nigh-confirmed, as I have a strong townie read on her as well as the earlier stuff with mafiaplayer. FTR no votes until we reach a consensus. It's hard to quick hammer at 4, but still quite possible.

[jerubbaal]

I forgot ooba was confirmed as well, that actually puts us in a decent place. I don't see why we would use random ordering when we have known quantities, i.e. confirmed townies. I'd be fine with either ooba or Y doing so.

I'm going to refrain from commenting on the massclaim itself until it is finished. I would suggest everyone do the same. Y or ooba put up a list, I don't care who, and we'll use whichever one is up first. Gorckat apparently claimed already, so right now we're looking at:

Claimed

gorckat - doc

Unclaimed and unconfirmed

Ripley
incognito
jerubbaal
Mizzy

Unclaimed and confirmed

Y
ooba

It goes without saying that the confirmed should claim last.

[jerubbaal]

I forgot Mizzy was MP, ergo already claimed. She's not jumping the gun. Ripley should claim whenever he gets on.

[jerubbaal]

Townsperson

next

[jerubbaal]

I think we should get claims from Y and ooba now that all the unconfirmeds are claimed.

[jerubbaal]

Is ooba already claimed?

[jerubbaal]

Agree that the likelihood of a godfather is about nil, considering the balance.

The scum team being Ripley, Mizzy, and Incog does confuse me, although when Mizzy claimed for the second time, she did claim vanilla townie, which isn't how the PM is phrased. I guess that means I was wrong about MP actually reading the first post.

We have four unconfirmeds and three mafia. It's easy for me, because I know I'm a townsperson, but it's basically riding on the confirmeds at this point.

I think Ripley's the clear scum, so we should lynch him first without a lot of question. Incog's play has been good, but I don't find anything that sways me any particular way. Mizzy being scum is a surprise, but I'm going to go back and read her stuff with a different mindset (I was thoroughly convinced she was town) and see if I find anything anomalous to make this decision easier.

[jerubbaal]

Regarding balance issues, as well as simply considering our odds of winning this game, the likelihood of a godfather is effectively none. Similarly, unless there's some sort of scum super-role out there, two scum makes this ludicrously unbalanced in the scum's favor. The claims fit just fine, doc+cop+vig leans toward the town, but destructor balanced it by adding a night 0 with a kill. It's actually nice and clean, gasp, like a mini-normal.

I do not consider GF to be a realistic possibility, and I'm going to play with that assumption.

There

is

already a little twist to Near's role by making the vig essentially a miller, which pushes things back toward the scum. It's all balanced quite nicely.

This makes it that there's a necessary three scum out of the four unconfirmeds. I'm one of the unconfirmeds, and I'm a townie, ergo you must all be scum. The logic is not a stretch. There is a huge amount of indignation here from reasonably smart players simply from my pointing out the obvious. I find it hilarious that all three of you jumped together with "no, you're wrong, you can't say that" when it's so clear.


We're definitely not lynching anyone without looking everything over very thoroughly, but your claim was the weakest, Ripley, and I think your play has been very nice middle-of-the-road scum this whole time. You're too careful about everything that you say.

The vanilla townie/townsperson distinction has been discussed quite a bit, but the fact remains that scum are going to think of roles more functionally (i.e. vanilla townie) while town are going to know what they got in their PMs (i.e. townsperson).

I'd be happy lynching Incog. Because he's scum. I just think you're the easiest to persecture.

I fail to see how I have expressed any doubts about the three of you being scum. Your reactions to my accusations have only cemented my opinions.

[jerubbaal]

I'm still surprised that my read on Mizzy was so blatantly wrong, but that's where it is. Barring the existence of a GF, all three of you are scum, regardless of my read on you.

Mizzy didn't complain about the setup, but she immediately said I couldn't say that she was scum just because she claimed vanilla townie. She completely missed the point that I was saying that she was scum because she

has

to be scum, knowing what I know. You all just kind of went "<splutter> No!" when I posted the obvious conclusion, which you all should have reached as well, with very little thought.

Blah, blah, using vanilla townie instead of townsperson is relevant in this scenario. It's actually very common to use phrasing cues from the PMs to decide whether people have the relevant knowledge or not.

If you want more specific examples of your fluffy posting, I'll be happy to provide them once I finish my read-through. For now, I'm happy with my read and your reaction to my accusations. You actually haven't even called me scum yet, which any decent townie would have done by this point.

[jerubbaal]

This is going to come out somewhat piecemeal as I'm reading, but I'll post some relevant thoughts.

There really isn't enough posting by thephantom to get a decent bead on Ripley's predecessor, but what's there is weak and wishy-washy.

MP's early play is looking more scummy to me, knowing what we know. Everyone he voted for is confirmed townie at this point (if I'm lining up my names correctly). I'm pretty positive scum MP wouldn't vote for a scumbuddy unless it was absolutely clear that that person was going to be lynched. My point is that scum MP would only vote for townies, which is exactly what he did.

I just thought I'd include this as an example of Ripley's wishy-wash. Honestly, just read any of his posts and they all sound like this.

My latest thoughts about Near coming up.

There was something niggling me about his claim, and during the night phase I went back and found it. This comes from a post made by Near on March 26th (Post 428) where he gives his thoughts on all the players in response to a request from XReyoX. (This was the second time Near had been asked to do this by XReyoX, and on both occasions he obliged, so there are actually two such lists, Posts 164 and 428.)

In this post Near says, of me:

Ripley: He has been very very helpful in defending me. I think without him, I would have been lynched already. He makes good thoughtful posts, and often explains what I mean better than I can. He has been very useful to me so far, but I am still concerned about his being scum and is buddying up to me. I really doubt it though. I feel like he could have lynched me pretty easily if he wanted to. But the who knows, maybe he's trying to set up for late game.

My problem with this is: why would Near, a power-role, expect to be "pretty easily lynched"? This post was made 11 days before the gunsmith claim, and it did make me wonder if these were the words of a scum who hadn't yet thought of a convincing roleclaim. I'd like to get Near's comments on this.

Can't help but notice that had I not been unavoidably absent at the start of the day, I would probably have posted this and Near would immediately have been convinced I'd fallen into his trap. Near, you need to take into account that if you spring a trap at the start of a day, players often use the night phase to reread and so will often, genuinely, start the day with new observations and maybe a somewhat different opinion on some players. Especially a player like me who's only in this one game.

Pending Near's reply, I still think the balance of the external evidence points to Near being innocent. No counterclaims, no dead cop... and the longer this goes on, the more genuine he looks. One of these situations must, surely, be true:

1. Near is a scum, and there is a real investigator.
2. Near is innocent, and, though inaccurate, the only investigator.
3. Near is innocent, and there is a second, probably also weakened, investigator.

If either 1) or 3) is the case, the second investigator has not spoken up, and if they investigated Near last night - which seems logical - they can't have found him to be scum. Surely in that situation, with a doc probably still around, they would claim, name and shame. The fact that this hasn't happened adds to the evidence on the side of Near's innocence. (This is of course complicated by the fact that the second investigator may not be getting entirely accurate results either.)

One final thought, which may not make much sense but my eyes are starting to water so this post has to end here, is the possibility of a Mafia gunsmith.

Soooo, you say essentially nothing, posit a bunch of (false) scenarios, and then suggest that he might be a scum investigator. Uh-huh. "Fluff, fluff, waffle, waffle, maybe he's scum."

Also of note, none of the scum (Ripley/thephantom, Mizzy, Incog) joined in on the whole Niv/Near thing until the end when everything was quite clear. If there's one thing I noticed during the re-read, it's how much this game has just been townies really going at each other. The best scum play in that event is just to let it go on, and that's exactly what they did. Incog and Ripley were floaters until the pressure of a deadline showed up, and Mizzy protested until the end. None of them ever wanted to take responsibility for their vote.

Mizzy has an interesting little tiff when gorckat asks her to clarify her stance on Near. Also, her logic day 2 is quite confused with her push against Y, despite his being cleared.

@Mizzy - claiming vanilla townie instead of townsperson does not give us any more information, it gives less precise information. Your refusal to actually call me scum at this point is cute. Who do you think is scum then?

@Ripley - the order does not so much matter to me. I'd actually be happy lynching Incog if there is the will to do so, because he's probably going to be the hardest to lynch of the three of you.

[jerubbaal]

For the moment, I'm not going to deal with the case against you, because I still think you sound like town, I just absolutely can't justify there being a GF in this scenario as well as a miller. If that's the case we're playing a 12 person game with a night-0 kill and a heavily nerfed cop. The balance would favor scum pretty heavily.

Regardless, you're on the bottom of my list for the three scum. I need to do some meta on you, because if you're acting, it's really convincing. Ripley and Incog can be dealt with first.

[jerubbaal]

Why is that relevant at all? And I don't think scum are underpowered at all, I think the balance actually looks pretty good with three normal scum.

[jerubbaal]

The points against Imat here are just blowing smoke. Nothing substantial at all. Your conviction is very manufactured.

The whole "I'm town, ergo you must be scum" is very definitely a relevant case, simply the premises I'm relying on (i.e., that I am town) are not common knowledge, so I have to convince the rest of the town on different terms. However, it's extremely scummy not to draw conclusions based on the knowledge which you possess, even if that knowledge is not available to the rest of the town.

My view of your play, Incog, is that you've generally said reasonable and sensible things, kept a coherent line of logic, and shown reasonably town interests. The only really anti-town move I noticed when I looked back was that you really started the push against Lowell, which really put us in the position we are now. But there's a definite difference between saying all the right things and acting like a townie. Mizzy has been acting like a townie, you've been evidencing good town play, they're noticeably different.

I'm confused on Mizzy because my speculation of the setup requires her to be the final scum, yet my read on her has been completely town. In this case, I'm trusting my read on the setup, because her not being scum necessitates a GF, which throws the balance notably out of whack, as well as going against what we know from the pre-game (GF dying). My reads this game have been pretty off, and I'm willing to consider solid setup speculation better than my intuition at this point.

[jerubbaal]

@jerubbaal:

Obviously it's anti-town to push a case against a pro-town player but as a normal townie, I can only do so much that I can with what I have within thread. I can probably cite countless examples of instances where a pro-town player led the charge against another pro-town player only to learn that the player in question was town. For you to use that as a tell against me seems like a huge reach. I presented a case against a player who I thought was likely to be scum and waited for a response from him. I felt like his response did nothing to convince me that he was actually town and so I continued to pursue the case. It's cute how you try to make it seem like I was single-handedly responsible for his lynch when it took four other people to lynch him with one of them being your predecessor. If we assume a three scum set-up, then at least one of those additional players responsible for his lynch had to be town.

That's honestly the only point of my post you address? I never said I was using it as a tell against you, I'm saying it was an anti-town action. Obviously, it happens that townies lynch townies all the time. Townies do anti-town things all the time. A preponderance of anti-town moves, regardless of reasonable explanations, does constitute a point against someone though. You still seem to feel a need to overexplain though.

Note the dramatic difference in posting volume now that the game is close. Now that Incog is feeling threatened, he's clearly feeling a need to justify himself at greater length. And the suggestion of a GF is still preposterous.

[jerubbaal]

Gorckat, at least don't vote until we've discussed this. Neither you or Y seem to be taking this terribly seriously, and you're our confirmed townies. I don't want to walk into a quicklynch.

I think I've been pretty clear on my evaluation of Mizzy - her play has been completely town, but unless this setup has a GF (extremely unlikely), she has to be mafia. That's about the only relevant case I have on her at this point, I'll try to dig up something more useful as we go. Ripley and Incog are much easier to see as scum though, but perhaps that's just because I know they have to be.

Ripley has played nice guy all game, and he never actually joins any of the wagons until they're well established. Look at his voting history. He's right that he kind of stuck up for Near, but he never committed a vote until it came down to the deadline. Retaining that kind of flexibility early on is very valuable for scum, not so much for town.

You do realize that we all have to vote for the scum in order to lynch them, unless scum are willing to bus at this point. Mizzy is kind of their ace-in-the-hole, she's played so well, you'll notice that none of them are really putting any pressure on her, even though they "should" have realized that she must be scum.

[jerubbaal]

I don't have any time to write out any sort of reasoned response at this point, but you would have to be blind to not see how nice all the rest of the confirmeds are being to each other. Holy hell, you are not this nice to people who are almost certain scum at this point when we're lylo and still have three scum floating around.

I'll be honest, I hate waffling, partially because it's a playstyle which is really only advantageous to scum, but sooo many townies still do it. The fact remains, you're scum, Ripley, and I'm going to see everything you do with a scum motivation rather than a town motivation, even if a town motivation is possible. Your play was not terrible early on, I'm just moderately pissed that I replaced in for the unconfirmed with the weakest play days 1 and 2 who actually ended up being townie, and now I have to manage to not get lynched for three whole fricking days to actually win this game, plus our doc was an idiot and let our cop die. You'll have to forgive the frustration.

[jerubbaal]

He was an uncounterclaimed cop. Regardless of how scummy he looked, you protect him.

[jerubbaal]

A couple responses to Ripley.

1) I did not have a "change of heart" about lynching you without question. You seemed and still seem the scummiest of the unconfirmeds, by a fairly wide margin. In my mind, you are the first and easiest lynch, without any question. Trying to twist my words around to make it seem like I'm just trying to quicklynch you is a really feeble attempt to swing this around.

2) I have been very clear regarding my position on Mizzy. I think her play has been completely town, but the way this setup looks to be balanced, I think she has to be scum. I trust my read on the situation more than my personal read of her behavior, so she must be scum.

3) Look at the day 1 wagon itself. You defended Near when he was getting beat on, and said that you were suspicious of Niv/Sammich, but you didn't commit a vote until the very end. That's just how it is. This isn't a strong point against you, because townies are very slow to vote sometimes as well, but timid scum are almost

always

slow to vote.

4) I keep forgetting that ooba is even in this game. Not exactly surprising when you consider how little he's posted. Trying to make this into a scumtell is really forcing it.



Look at the setup balancing laid out here. Ripley's right in that the absolute most basic normal setup is 1 cop, 1 doc, 1 vig, 6 town, 1 GF, 2 goons. The scenario as we have it already is weaker for the town, as we have a miller vig and a night-start. The only thing which leans town from the setup above would be the lack of a GF. If we assume that we have a GF in this scenario, this setup is leaned toward the mafia on 2 counts, which would be severely unbalanced. Unless this scenario is severely unbalanced, there is no GF (especially considering the whole GF-dies-in-the-beginning flavor stuff).

All of this pushing away from the idea of a GF is essentially scum being unwilling to bus Mizzy, who is has been essentially unquestioned all game because of MP's claim and her fairly strong play. But she

has

to be scum.

[jerubbaal]

Ripley is, without a question, the scummiest of the unconfirmeds, in my head. Regardless of whether you agree with my evaluation, that's my evaluation.

You're completely misreading my third point. Waiting to commit is a weak, weak move for townies, but they do it sometimes. Scum need the flexibility to end up on the right trains at the right moment. Townies don't. Regardless, "nice" or timid townies make the mistake of not committing quite often, so Ripley's lack of commitment is not that remarkable. It's nowhere near the "too townie" argument.

I don't care which one of the scum we lynch, I just don't see Mizzy happening in the short term. She still reads as town to me, but she has to be scum. This isn't that difficult to understand. Honestly, I'm still floundering at this point as to how the heck I'm supposed to convince you that she's scum.

I fail to see what my being firm about my read on the setup has to do with bussing. Honestly, I think you're just confused and pissed at me because I called you an idiot. Sorry about that, but it was a terrible, terrible play not protecting Near.

[jerubbaal]

A week before the deadline is right before the deadline. It would have been hard for you to get on Near's wagon, but not terribly difficult to hop on anyone else's. None of the arguments here are valid.

I don't have any clue why you're asking me to provide examples of why I find Mizzy's play townie. It has absolutely nothing to do with any of your arguments against me. All you're doing is trying to shift the burden of proof to make me look bad. I'm not combing the thread for irrelevant information.

The case, in my head, is that I'm town so you must be scum. You can haggle about the legitimacy of this logic all you want, but knowing what I know, it's pretty solid.

Yes and yes.


Seriously, you all have to be blind if you can't see a change in posting patterns here with the threatened scum. Compare Ripley and Incog's posting with their earlier patterns. Somebody obviously feels threatened, and Ripley's sudden demand for textual support is textbook end of game scum.

[jerubbaal]

Why are you voting Mizzy, Y?

If there's too much contention on the Ripley/me scenario, we could certainly just go and lynch Incog today. He's scum, and he's pretty much ducked out recently once the Ripley/me thing started going. We are running very short on time and I don't think we're going to get any real resolution before the deadline. No-lynching is absolutely and completely unacceptable at this point, we need to lynch someone.

Vote: Incognito

[jerubbaal]

FYI, I still

feel

like Mizzy is town, and I would prefer to defer her lynch to last among the three of you. I'm still trying to decide if there's any way that I can see how my theory would be wrong. ATM, I don't.

Ripley, you make the completely mistaken assumption that every argument about someone's scumminess is presented in a way which can be rebutted. In my experience, the way you've played this game is completely compatible with the way I see conservative scum play games. Support a beleaguered townie or too early, get some friends, ride the obvious trains, wait to commit, only post extensively when assaulted, demand endless textual support when attacked. You can say "nuh-uh" all you want, but the way you have played this game lines up perfectly with what I can perceive about your personality and how you would play as scum.

[jerubbaal]

WE NEED TO DECIDE ON A LYNCH, NOW!

Seriously, we have less than a week til deadline, Y's vote on Mizzy is making me doubt my whole perception of the setup, the two obvscum are cluttering up the thread, and we're getting nowhere. Our confirmeds need to get their heads in the thread and make some decisions.

[jerubbaal]

Oops, sorry!

I feel Y is actually the godfather/traitor/whatever due to his play this whole friggin' game. Especially after his vote on me, which feels like he's trying to use his "confirmed" townie status to kill me.

I'm honest to God almost to this point myself. What most people are complaining about with Mizzy, that she hasn't been responding to cases, is exactly why I think she's town. When scum are accused of a "you must be scum because I'm not" case, they try to explain around it. Mizzy has just been saying "well I'm not," which is exactly what townies do in that situation. Seriously, my read on her is so town it's not even funny.

There is basically no reason in heck for Y to be voting Mizzy other than that he's clear scum trying to go for the win today and I've said that I'm willing to vote Mizzy. Scum have to mislead one townie to win today, and I've basically already offered myself up as that townie by saying I'd lynch Mizzy. Note also that Incog and Ripley have been pushing me to say that I'm willing to lynch Mizzy. Really, it just feels like their agenda today is to get Mizzy lynched, which makes me lean even more town on her.


@ooba - I've addressed my changing read on Incog before, but I can do it again in greater detail. When I was leaning strongly town on Incog was during the Lowell mess, and I regarded his contribution to that train hugely positive, because I agreed with it. When Lowell comes up as town, that largely invalidates my reason for liking Incog as town.

Incog is smart scum. He's been posting this whole game like smart scum, only pushing in the right places and not doing anything blatantly anti-town, yet achieving the right anti-town ends at the right time.

I'd actually be happiest lynching Incog first, because he's the brains behind the scum. Ripley and Y are the final two (or Ripley and Mizzy), I don't think they can execute this endgame as well without him.

[jerubbaal]

I'm all for a Ripley lynch, if you don't feel like Incog is better for today. We just need to get the support for this pronto and execute.

[jerubbaal]

Your manufactured anger is actually quite amusing Incog. Any particular reason you choose now to suddenly and inexplicably lose your detached, logical demeanor?

Anyhow, a deadline extension would be beyond sexy right now. I think we certainly have enough activity at the moment to justify it.

[jerubbaal]

Actually, that deadline extension isn't even needed. Both jerubbaal and Mizzy have already outed themselves as scum. It's time I played the ace card.

Both jerubbaal and Mizzy have seemed to come to this "tacit" agreement that the scum team is likely to be me, Ripley, and Y and that I would be the best lynch for the day. Mizzy's even gone as far as to say that Y is using his "confirmed innocent" status to recklessly vote for her (a so-called "townie")

and

mentioned that jerubbaal is likely to be town, all in one breath. Really, Mizzy? If anything, the fact that Y hasn't voted for jerubbaal yet

when he already has a vote on him

is actually indicative of one of the following:

• Either Y is scum with both
  you
  and jerubbaal, and he's waiting for someone to place a vote on me before changing his vote to me or
  
  
• Y is town who isn't completely sold on his read of jerubbaal

Jerubbaal already

has

a vote placed on him by gorckat who's already mentioned over and over again that he is most in favor of a jerubbaal lynch. So why would Y just not vote for jerubbaal then if jerubbaal really was town and Y was scum and Ripley and me were his scum buddies? Rhetorical question.

You're scum, jerubbaal is also scum, and either Ripley or Y is the third scum. Check and mate. I'm pretty much ready to vote for either one of jerubbaal or Mizzy.

Let me see if I'm understanding. Your ace card is that Y

isn't

voting me? Basically you're asserting that, if I were town are Y were scum, I would be quicklynched by now. Scum can't execute a quicklynch from 1 to 4 without being obscenely obvious about it. I've actually been hoping someone would try it and shoot themselves in the foot, but no one has. Just look at the logic of this argument, it doesn't hold together at all. You're trying to sell a really sketchy interpretation as an absolute sure thing (ace card), which is really, really scummy.


On the other hand, I feel a lot better about lynching Mizzy now. Voting for gorckat at this point is completely and entirely inappropriate. He's so confirmed it's silly. If we want to lynch Mizzy today, it's all good.

[jerubbaal]

GG all, and well played scum.

I do have a little bit of beef with the setup though. The only relevant power role the town had was a slightly nerfed cop with a miller vig. Honestly, the vig might even be slightly worse than a vanilla townie in this setup, because scum can protect themselves and he happens to be a miller. Vig shouldn't vig night 0, because he has no information, and it's usually iffy night 1. By the time his ability becomes relevant, the scum have a doctor online to nerf him also. Also, cop is a significantly less powerful role when it is not combined with any sort of protective role.

I like the whole traitor thing with the scum, it's something I've heard about but not actually played with, but I don't think it's a significant enough disadvantage to balance everything the town had going against them. So yeah, maybe this is just me being whiny, but this setup seems to strongly favor the scum. It basically begs the question if adding a cop justifies adding another scum, and I think the answer is no, especially when there is a the miller factor as well.


On happier notes, I'm actually pleased with my instincts in this game, or at least near the end of it. I was definitely getting scummy vibes from gorckat during days 2 and 3, but I discarded them when he claimed doc and went uncountered. And yeah, Mizzy was completely obvtown, but my counting gorckat as confirmed made me think that she had to be scum. I'm actually semi-pleased I wasn't completely wrong on her.


So yeah, I think scum definitely had a sizable advantage, but you all executed quite well and never made any serious errors to endanger that advantage. Well played.

[jerubbaal]

I do think the roles played well together, but the balance was definitely a problem. Giving the town only a naked almost-cop really doesn't cut it. Vig isn't substantially better than vanilla, and becomes significantly worse being a miller. Plus the fact that town would probably have no clue that there was a mafia doc anywhere out there, so they wouldn't understand the interaction in the rules unless they had luckily killed him yet.

Absolute bare balance is 2 scum/10 town. That's usually the way it goes for mountainous. You strengthened the town actually less than a full cop, by adding the miller, and added an entire other scum. It's really not strong enough. Plus you strengthened the scum by adding a mafia doc. The design is actually fairly elegant, it's just not balanced at all.

And I think it was the absolute right move for scum to kill. The slim odds of hitting your other scum are very worth the overwhelming odds of hitting a townie, or even a power role (as was the case).

[jerubbaal]

I really fail to see the significant difference between a gunsmith and a cop. They function identically. The only difference here was that the vig worked as a miller. Otherwise, it's absolutely identical to cop.

Added question here, if the mafia doc was investigated before he actually joined the mafia, would he have come up guilty?

I actually really commend you on the indication about there being no GF. It was a reasonably subtle way of doing it that wasn't airtight, but still a strong indication. I disagree, however, that the presence of a vig did anything to imply that scum had protection. Vigs appear in games all the time when scum don't have protection. Really, all the protection did was hurt a town which was already pretty weak.

[jerubbaal]

Eh, flooding the setup with investigative roles is rarely the best solution. The easy solution would have been a pro-town doctor or even bodyguard to protect the investigative role. It's mainly why I considered you so cleared. Maybe I've just been playing on Sally too much lately.... They love their power roles something fierce.

I agree that it's elegant, but it just hoses the town some more.

[jerubbaal]

It seems pretty hard to find a balance in games (especially normals) which moves away from the whole "follow the cop" routine, and removing protection roles is one way of doing that. I think what you're doing, trying to find different ways of moving the game along, is very commendable, but balance is still a significant concern.

I actually think it would have been a lot better if you simply hadn't given the scum a doctor. Giving the scum a doctor does imply somewhat that the town doesn't have a doctor, and removes some of the doc-fear from trying to kill a claimed cop. They might still have decided that it was worth the risk, but it's another point against the town when the scum have a hint that "they" have the doc instead of the town.

In this case (and in almost all cases that would occur in a mini-normal) gunsmith functions exactly as cop, excepting that vigs becomes millers.