Cultafia: Game over

[armlx]

NOOOOOO, we lost a Nibbler.

Vote CKD

for not being a Nibbler yet, btw.

[armlx]

Nibbler is a character from the TV show Futurama. He pretends to be the pet of one of the main characters, but in desperate times reveals himself as a super intelligent being who is watching Earth to keep it safe.

Aka awesome.

[armlx]

Also, just a note to the Vig (assuming there is one), if a kill attempt fails on someone you can be 90% sure that person is scum (the only other option is you got RB'ed). Don't claim this, just kill them again the next night.

[armlx]

Cult Leader

You are the [cultname] Cult Leader. Every night, you may attempt to recruit one player into your cult or kill one player. Once you have fellow cultists, you may discuss with them at night, but the ultimate decision and responsibility to PM is yours. If you die, the cult may neither kill nor recruit; however,

you are immune to the first attempt to kill you at night.

You win when your cult cannot be eradicated, or such a situation is inevitable.

(In my games, I prefer to be kept in the loop on Night discussion; if you get the chance to communicate, please keep me in touch somehow: give me a link to a forum, or CC me on PMs, or whatever)

Serial Killer

You are a Serial Killer. Each night, you may kill someone. You are completely immune to investigations and cult recruitment, and

the first attempt to kill you at night will fail.

You win when you are the last person standing.

That is why the vig should kill them again.

Actually, could I get some mod clarification on this? Does this mean

A) The first night kill attempt on them that game or
B) The first NK attempt each night.

I'm assuming A.

[armlx]

BTW, CKD, I notice you have yet to use your Nibbler avatar.

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php ... e:1034.jpg

[armlx]

-He is telling the truth, and is probably going to be recruited, and should be lynched so it doesnt happen

Flawed logic. Every lynch you want to aim for the recruiter or SK, not a recruit. Hitting a recruit is only a bit better than a mislynch.

[armlx]

EBWODP: A bit is probably exaggerated. Lynching a recruit is good, but lynching recruits for days on end is not going to win the game.

[armlx]

Now it is.

[armlx]

(waiting for arm

L

x's mod question)

Fixed.

[armlx]

Good thinking, Armlx. The only other reason I can see why a vig kill is likely to fail is if the person is doc-protected, but hopefully the vig's targeting suspicious people and the doc's targeting pro-town-looking people, so that's probably not all that likely.

Except theres no doctor to block actual kills, just recruits.

[armlx]

I like how TSS is calling 2 random votes a band wagon.

I'd be more inclined to look at the mnowax wagon, as theres some half logic there people can latch on to (no random vote).

However, while TSS's case is baseless, Runner has acted fairly scummy since the case was presented.

Thinking time.

[armlx]

But perhaps lynching is really not a good idea, we might just remember "that guy claimed and probably was already recruited" and lynch him after the recruiter.

This is the quote that worries me the most, as Blazes subsequent posts, especially the one regarding TSS's allegations, seem much more informed about basic mafia strategy.

[armlx]

Unvote, Vote Yos2

I thought OMGUS was one of the scum tells you believed was overly relied on and not actually a scum tell.

[armlx]

Vikingfan: Edit By Way of Double Post.

BTW, we aren't saying lynching recruits is bad, its just that lynching recruit after recruit gets you nowhere fast.

Yos:

Unvote

Sorry, actually mixed up the overreacting thread with the OMGUS thread.

Blaze:

You pick up on things like TSS saying you need to die, yet suggest bad lynch plans. Thats the contradiction that gets me the most.

[armlx]

Vikingfan: Read the roles again. Cult can choose to kill or recruit each night, but only if the Leader is still alive. If the Leader is dead, they can't do anything.

Mnowax: My definition of good there is +EV compared to lynching a town role.

FOS Mnowax

for suggesting the best strategy is to lurk. It's a prisoners dilemma, and you just suggested the best strategy is for one party to turn on the other (Cult presumably wins with townie who back stabbed), where the actual highest expected value for everyone is if everyone works (whole town wins).

[armlx]

Blaze:

"Claimed townie should die" is bad as you are lynching A) a townie or B) a recruit. Both are not good ways to win.

The point about TSS saying you need to die is valid.

About my statement: The two things I pointed out show contradictory levels of pro-town thought. Catching the "must die" is good town play, the bad lynch plans are bad. This suggests you know what you are doing and are purposefully trying to lead us into bad plans.

Edit mid-train of thought: I'm an idiot.

Unvote, Vote Blazerunner

.

[armlx]

My point is you are trying to deliberately add faulty strategies into our discussion in the hope we use them, giving you as scum more a chance of winning.

[armlx]

Your posts show a knowledge of the game greater than your plans. For example, you cite WIFOM and know its bad. That is my reason.

BTW, nice WIFOM. "Scum wouldn't do that, its too scummy". Very happy with my vote.

[armlx]

I do believe we have our first claim? Vote stands.

[armlx]

Is there a reason why you killed dripping goofball?

Vote: Bladerunner

I'm taking this as a claim.

[armlx]

Watcher

You are a Watcher. Each night, you may watch one other player; I will inform you of who, if anyone, targets them with any night actions.

You win when any threats to the town are eliminated, or if you join a cult before its takeover is inevitable.

[armlx]

EBWOD: (Assuming thats what mnowax means. No one lynch Blaze till mnowaz comes back to confirm, fyi.)

[armlx]

Watchers aren't investigative roles. I've never seen them classified as one. Information roles sure, but not investigations.

[armlx]

After reading the armlx-blaze exchange, I dislike armlx's suggestion that blaze shows he has some knowledge about the game (at least more than his ideas would suggest) based on...the fact that Blaze knows what wifom is. That's the only evidence he gives to suggest knowledge of the game when, in fact, newbies can very easily be exposed to the concept of wifom (it isn't exactly a complex idea). It looks like armlx is trying to paint blaze as less of a newb.

Voll, the example you cite was after I made the argument, and I commented on it as it occurred.. The real one I cited in first making the argument was his attack on TSS, especially how he points out minutia like "Blaze must die" as odd things.

[armlx]

Also,

Unvote

for now. L-2 is way to close for things to be ATM.

[armlx]

@TSS

and Mnowax

: Can you restate all the evidence/arguments you have against blaze?

Fixed.

[armlx]

BR: You saying "Mno is lying if he claims to have investigative results on me" is dumb. Not gonna help your case at all. Investigation result > you.

[armlx]

BTW, Guardian, Random Mafia is also 5 for 5 on top of page vote counts. No record, sorry.

[armlx]

BR: You saying "Mno is lying if he claims to have investigative results on me" is dumb.

Unless it's true...

Anyway, I think we need to here from Mnowax now.

Even if it is true, its not like we are going to take his word over Mno's without a massively drastic reason.

However, I believe such a reason may be arising given Mno refuses to claim his role in a game with open roles.....

[armlx]

Even if it is true, its not like we are going to take his word over Mno's without a massively drastic reason.

In a normal game, I would agree with you. But in a game like this, I could see a random cult recruit intentionally sacrificing himself in order to cause one random mislynch; it might not be a bad trade for the cult in this game.

If the rules didn't insinuate multiple cults I would agree. However, a cult sacrificing one of its members for 2 "wasted" (read: not cult leader or SK) lynches automatically loses the race with the other cult especially since their best weapon against the other is what is getting wasted. The cult recruit's team isn't gaining the most value out of the play, the (presumed) other cult and (presumed) SK are gaining the most.

[armlx]

I ... am content to hear out mnowax before doing anything drastic.

Agree.

Another good thing about this scenario is it rules out mno as a good lynch target. Either he is town A) telling the truth or B) running a gigantic gambit or a recruit. None of those is an optimal lynch candidate, correct?

[armlx]

I like believing mnowax at the moment...if he's wrong, he's immediately on the chopping block tomorrow and rightfully so. and if he's right, we lynch a scum.

I do not like this post, especially since I explained why Mno is not a good lynch earlier (recap: either he is town or recruit, not SK or Recruiter).

[armlx]

Fair enough Yosarian. I've never actually been in a game where the cult lived past D3. Though in retrospect only 1 has been because the cult leader wasn't night killed, so I should have figured that out.

Unvote

So, people to not lynch today:
Blazerunner: (Vig/SK)
Mno (Recruit/Watcher/ Townie with massive balls)

Have to think from there.

[armlx]

So, people to not lynch today:
Blazerunner: (Vig/SK)
Mno (Recruit/Watcher/ Townie with massive balls)

Funny how you dont even consider mno might be lying and guilty, and I might not be a killing class.

Meh, irrel for the purposes of that list. Not like either of you is a recruiter.

[armlx]

VOTE ARMLX

I enjoy the large font, but cap locks is not valid reasoning.

[armlx]

You said it yourself: He could be a cultist on a gambit. Last I checked, we wanted to lynch cult

recruiters

not cultists (aka

recruits

). We've been over this. The odds a cult leader would have balls that big to just out and fake claim on the hope we don't lynch either of you for this reason are between 0 and -infi.

The scenario I didn't write up is if Mno is a recruit you are technically a mystery box, but mystery box is still low odds of being the non-Mno recruiting recruiter.

[armlx]

Not impressed. Still on the Blaze is SK and shouldn't die today wagon.

[armlx]

TSS: I can't even explain how bad that play would be. Its terrible on so many levels such as A) if its a cult leader hes going to have to explain why they would kill and why there was no SK kill, B) there's most likely more than 2 (SK+ other cult leader) steadfasts, so its losing odds on hitting the SK and C) he is claiming it so poorly people wanted to lynch him.

I'm actually with Occult here. Also of note: You still vote Blaze despite all the evidence of why he's not a good lynch. This looks too much like the old you setting the ball for Mno to claim and rush a lynch if people pile on Blaze.

Vote TSS

[armlx]

Wow, good catch there Nab.



TSS's last post seems a lot like he's trying to buddying up to the people attacking him, especially as he cites me as someone he agree with on Mno being incorrect when I didn't even care about that possibility until Yos2 brought up that even if Mno isn't lying Blaze isn't a good lynch.

I never argue with D1 role based lynch reasons unless there's a VERY good reason, and Mno definitely implied he had that.

[armlx]

That last post is so insane, I don't know what to think.

Cult recruit narrowing down the possibilities for who their cult leader is?

Directing 2 town roles and a scum group? The real reason vigging you might be bad is the vig probably wants to hunt down cult leaders/sk's, not recruits, not that the watcher should be watching you.

I guess this probably makes Mno the other recruit then, or a lying steadfast who is trying to pull a rediculous gambit. First seems most likely IMO.

[armlx]

The vig is really just a every other night cop that if they miss has bad consquences for us. I'm thinking that rather than a miss, the auto take down of a single recruit might help slow the cults down a bit, though it might just weaken one cult on accident while the other runs rampant.

[armlx]

I guess this probably makes Mno the other recruit then, or a lying steadfast who is trying to pull a rediculous gambit. First seems most likely IMO.

Maybe I missed something...How does it work that recruitMno would know to pull something like this on blaze?

To be 100% honest, I'm not sure. Looking back I assumed the cult leaders could talk to new recruits as they were recruited at night, but its technically not night by that point.

I guess Mno could have just tried to run it on his own, but I'm doubting that.

[armlx]

I was actually going to make the same post as Yos before I read it.

Actually, a Steadfast the SK would want to leave alive as they can't turn into cult.

[armlx]

Fos Springlullaby

for being anxious about a procedural way to find scum.

[armlx]

I trust mno's info less than Blaze, mainly because mno hasn't said anything real yet and has based his accusation on information he "can't tell us". Also, based on another ongoing game, I believe Mno has a tendency to lie. Not sure if its a scum or null tell yet, but it seems like this is common for him.

[armlx]

Yos: Between this and another on going game I am convinced Mno is either a compulsive liar or has no clue when claiming is appropriate and not punting the game.

[armlx]

I really don't like Vikingfan's last post. It sorta hits me as trying to con us into a plan of action by making us think we wanted to do it.

[armlx]

K, now that I just reread a 60 pg game to replace into, I got to look back at this one, and I'm confident this is the right call.

Unvote, Vote Vikingfan

.

While TSS's statements probably lead mno to his actions and were a little too assertive, upon reread I think vikingfan statements have

A) felt temporally awkward aka just often enough to not be lurking.
B) pushed bad/easy wagons (kat and blaze)

My TSS vote was also based on a partial rules misunderstanding.

[armlx]

Yosarian, I'm not getting why claiming is bad, please re-explain it for me.

Because those that claim pro-town recruitable roles, especially power roles that don't harm the SK such as the cop, create massive WIFOMs as instead of dying and being death confirmed, they can become scum. Non-recruitable roles claiming simply lowers the target pool for the cult(s) to hit recruitables.

I'm pretty sure death via lynch is still < potential cult recruitment, but claiming outside of that scenario is not helping the town.

[armlx]

secondly, if he is still alive tomorrow, you have your lynch target.

Or you are lying and alive, and he is just a recruit. Just saying "If he lives the night, he is scum" has so many levels of WIFOM associated with it that its impossible to trust.

[armlx]

Cult leaders are VERY bad.

Cultists are mildly bad.

Learn the distinction.

[armlx]

Secondarily, I think 2 cults AND an sk seems like a bit much; if they were successful, then we just started the game with 33% scum and if we lynch wrong today, we wind up going to day 2 with 7/14(or 1 or 12) which is 50% scum which means an almost guaranteed scum win. I don't think a sane mod would use a setup which even, theoretically, COULD put the town in lylo day 1.

Did I miss somewhere in my readup where it was concluded that there are definitely two cults?

Most of it is based on conjecture from the fact the rules have so many rulings for multiple cults ie. Cult Leader role pm having you are the [cultname] cult, rulings on multiple recruit attempts on 1 person a night, etc.

Skruffs: Lynching recruits is definitely poor. The recruit's cult ends even on members the next morning, other cults end +1 member, and SK's kill someone. End result is just town -2/3 people, equivalent to a mislynch in a non cult game. I'm sure this has been discussed before in this game, but you may not have gotten to it given your blaze sentiments atm.

[armlx]

Blown away by Blazeriders big confession post. What is odd to me is why blaze didn't out his cult leader. Is this forbidden?

Why would he do that? Claimed or not, he's still cult.

I'm pretty sure it breaks the pretty golden rule of "Play to win" as well.

[armlx]

I'm currently trying to figure out if viking's actions are scummy like any scum's actions would be or fall more along the lines of a mafia group, meaning wouldn't be a leader/Sk and more likely be a recruit.

[armlx]

He my second choice. He's acting a lot more like how I would expect a cult leader to act, as well as lurking more here than other games I'm in with him.

On second thoughts, if I have doubts about vikingfan's behavior being leaderish, why the hell am I not voting spring.

Unvote, Vote spring

[armlx]

The case against spring is he has really been holding back all game until this last post, and he attacked vollkan for his list. Both very cult leader-like behaviors.

[armlx]

The case against spring is he has really been holding back all game until this last post, and he attacked vollkan for his list. Both very cult leader-like behaviors.

I don't see what is particularly "cult leader-like" about attacking the list. I don't even think it is necessarily scummy - I can think it reasonable for town to react with suspicion of something so odd as what I did. I can also fathom scum trying to look busy by attacking it. Anyway, it doesn't strictly suggest CL, does it?

The second is just scum like in general, but the first is cult leader like as typically their game plan is to just live for a few nights, at which point everything resolves itself well for them.

[armlx]

EBWODP: It could be SK like too I guess, though I would think an SK would be more active as they have less lynch protection than a cult leader.

[armlx]

I was actually using Darkstalkers as a comparison. I didn't even remember you were in R1000 until you posted there earlier today.

Also, the ideal scum looks as townie as possible, but that is hard to do while still playing to win, especially without other people to back you up. It's much easier to not look scummy by not doing anything that could implicate you.

[armlx]

Unvote, Vote: Yosarian2

I didn't like his reaction to mnowax' claim, I'm liking his casual dismissal to my comment even less.

I explained why I think mnowax is probably telling the truth. Yeah, it was a dumb claim to make, but it'd be an even dumber lie to make.

Then again, it looks like you just don't like it that one pro-town person is trusting another, because that messes with your plans, since after this post on your part I'm much more certain that you're scum.

Your reasoning about how cult leader would play is also full of BS and WIFOM.

If I were a cult leader, I would want to play in the most town-like manner possible, so as to leave no possible angle of attack for as long as possible.

Nice attempt at a WIFOM defense there. You're basically doing the "if I was scum I would want to act more pro-town" defense here, and that's just pointless.

Both are plausible, so you see, my behavior can be only be said to be scummy in general.

No, that's just wrong. It's not just "scummy in general", it's scummy like a scum who dosn't want to be at all noticed, with is more cult leader like then cult recruit like.

Besides, if even you're admitting that you've acted "scummy in general", then I think it's time for a

vote:springlullaby

.

Especally after this post, it's becoming quite clear that you're the scum./

The fact that want to imply that I'm a cult leader when my play can't possibly tell you that makes me find you very scummy indeed.

Oh? Annoyed we figured it out, are you? Or are you trying to say you're actually some other kind of scum?

I'd like wagon on Yosarian2 and armlx, they have voiced both crap theories about not claiming and stuff.

...

Crap theories? What? Claiming is bad this game most of the time, unless you're about to get lynched. It was a bad move when monowax did it, and it'd be an even worse move for anyone else to do it unless they were under threat of lynch, and even then only if their claim was likely to prevent the lynch.

I'm sure that a cult leader like you would like it if all the recruitable pro-town roles would just stand up and claim now, but it's not going to happen.

I believe the only thing I can say about this post is DING!

[armlx]

Just for reference, I believe that is L-2.

[armlx]

Hmm, I thought I had made a post after Nabakov's basically saying I agree with him.

Still, nothing has happened to change my opinion of SL, or anyone else to be fair.

[armlx]

i want Tar dead. that is all. SlySly's action are so scummy that they should have warranted an instant lynch. i am amazed that his replacement is still alive.

Wrong game.

[armlx]

*blazerunner is protected against one nightkill (and thus cultleader or sk, the latter seems not really possible anymore)

*mnowax was blocked or blazerunner was protected. This could only be done by town powerroles which would be unwise

*mnowax was not vigging which should mean he isn't able to vig, therefor lying and thus scum (cl, cr, sk).

Fixed. Blaze claimed RB that got recruited, and I highly doubt if there is another RB (or, more likely if there is someone other than him that is RB, that he is lying the the real RB is still out there) they are going to stop a kill on him. There are also 0 roles that protect against night kills in this game.

[armlx]

So SL is (theoretically) a cult leader? Who is her recruit?

Possibly blaze as he's not voting her, but beyond that no fricking clue. Recruit could have whiffed too.

[armlx]

Opposition to methodical scum hunting methods, lurking, OMGUSing those who attack you for this.

I said this before, right?

[armlx]

I was unimpressed with your responses.

[armlx]

It's not really WIFOM, its a valid analysis of the scenario. What you are doing is the equivalent of saying that the statement that "Scum like to rush wagons" is WIFOM because smart scum will avoid this.

Like I said, the perfect scum looks perfectly townie. However, scum are human and make mistakes.

[armlx]

3)
The OMGUS mainly falls on me. I like how you use semantics to try and make me find several examples.

And read what Yos post about OMGUS, this one?

vote:Blazerunner

. OMGUSing is bad.

2)

You have proven nothing about lurking, and in no way is lurking while posting elsewhere a null tell, except maybe in AITP.

1)

You voting vollkan instead of just questioning his method shows me you are trying to deter its existence instead of just pondering the details.



Also, way to misinterpret my other post. That was comparing to the scenario to a normal game, where getting gunned down by scum = death confirmed, and in this game instead of that they get cult recruited.

[armlx]

Skruffs: You are missing 2 things.

1) Recruits lose their abilities. Blaze couldn't have blocked last night.

2) Vig can only kill every other night. Therefore mno didn't kill DGB, therefore TSS != SK.

Wait, mod, is Blaze confirmed not cult, or are you just not revealing if he was or wasn't? If the first, then Skruffs has a point and I'm confused as to his play of not blocking as well.

[armlx]

Hjallti's last post is very logical, though I'm wondering how Yosarian missed his list of experienced quality players. I have a pretty good idea why this could be true, but I want to hear his answer.

The TSS being SK thing makes a lot of sense now as well given that, with Blaze's block and all.

Pretty sure mno's anti-Yos logic is just wrong.

No clue who are possible cult leaders, only some thoughts on who probably isn't.

[armlx]

Like i said before. i just picked randomly off the people who didn't post much yesterday.

Yosarian currently has 53 posts this game. That is almost double the number you have. I wouldn't classify him as not posting much. So, is there a real reason you targeted him, or are you just pulling things out of your ass?

[armlx]

EBWODP: Just checked, logic is even more fail. 53 is the second highest post count in the game.....

[armlx]

Something that *does* make sense is that Mnowax might be a cult recruiter, tried to recruit Yos, and was blocked, so failed, and took that to mean that Yos is a cult-recruiter or SK since those two factions avoid the first NK attempt on them and are also cult-immune. Doesn't mean a thing about Yos's role, though.

Especially given he is probably the most prolific target in the game with a (then) living alarmist and could also just be Steadfast in that scenario.

[armlx]

[quote="HjalltiI am pretty sure mnowax is not town, and not my faction. [/quote]

Interesting choice of words there.

Mno is just being dumb and frustrated at this point, which is a pretty null tell.

[armlx]

People don't get mod killed for threatening to post their role PMs. Only stern mod warnings occur until the rules are actually violated.

[armlx]

After reading through other games with Mno, I have a strong feeling he did not start off as scum and therefore is not a valid lynch.

[armlx]

why?

[armlx]

armlx, mnowax, you are asking me why I am voting who I am voting?

Because, if you have a logical reason why Hjaltii is likely to be a cult recruiter, I would like to hear it.

[armlx]

Umm, Hjallti replaced in pretty recently, the number of responses to his posts is going to be limited regardless of who it is. I also responded to his major post about there beign 2 vigs and what not, agreeing with the logic.

You also suggest I should auto know thats your only reason, which is pretty stray to vote off of. Maybe at the start of day one its worth a vote, but afterwards its merely one piece to add to a full case. I assumed you had more than just that.

Skruffs, I am unimpressed with the effort you are putting into this game. You really need to step up your reading and analysis before I consider anything you have said. I quite frankly ignored your posts yesterday as you were commenting on 7 page old content out of current context.

[armlx]

Amlx - you and the person he replaced also didn't discuss each other.

Theres a reason the person was replaced, I don't even remember them ever posting.....

You quoted the thing from hjltill, didn't comment on it except to bring attention to it,a nd then questioned why someone else brought it up.

I figured any comment he made in response was all I needed to hear about it. Like I said, its not a vote worthy thing at this stage in the game, and I'm suprised you find it that way.

It really does not bother me if you are 'unimpressed' by me. I'm actually used to people using my 'lack of reason' as an excuse to ignore me - IF you want, I will compile a list of the percentage of people who say stuff like that and turn out ot be scum.

So you are saying if someone questions you and asks to post reasoning, thats a scum tell? Thats really terrible, detrimental logic.

I am interested, not in your focus on only targeting cult-recruiters, but in your demand for significant amounts of proof from other people to explain why they are focusing on cult recruiters.

Cite examples. I have no memory of asking the logic beyond early game maybe.

I'm kind of curious about your attitude - you seem to be rather lofty and comfortable in the position you are in. Why?

Don't really feel I am, not sure why you would think this.

Also, you did talk about hjalltill in another post:

Your point?

No clue who are possible cult leaders, only some thoughts on who probably isn't.

I think it's interesting that you have no problem criticizing other people's attempts at pushing things, but you yourself admit that you have no leads. You criticize me, apparently, for suggestuing you should 'auto-know' my reasons for doing things, but YOUR attitude is that you do not have any intentions of investigating motivations and such, yourself. Which is why I am asking if you can be so comfortable in your place in the game as to be so critical of others and unhelpful yourself.

You act like just because I was reevaluating things in context of D2 I have no intent of finding things out. I was critical of your argument because, quite frankly, I find it lacking. You want me to support a case I find bad just to progress the game? Isn't that usually called band wagoning?

[armlx]

So, what you are saying is people who shoot down crap logic should offer up some of their own if they have nothing solid?

I think a rotten grape is a better analogy, and for real who is going to eat that? You seem to have the impression your "case" was remotely servicable.

[armlx]

I think the irony of all this was your vote on hjallti was based solely on something I pointed out.

[armlx]

Skruffs, you aren't even making sense any more.

[armlx]

Explain how I'm not making sense, then.
At least you are confirming that I *was* making sense to you before - even though you were saying I didn't make sense, then, too.

Way to twist what I'm saying.

[armlx]

I'm finding Skruff's side hard to understand from a logical perspective...

[armlx]

Also: I am criticizing Armlx for not trawling the thread for evidence, and he is criticizing me for not trawling the thread WELL enough.

I would hardly call voting someone for a weak comment made on the current page trawling the thread.

And, as for me not trawling, you act like my saying I have no clue who are cult leaders means I haven't. I simply don't find anything really case worthy at this point in time, and am waiting for something to catch my eye more so from one of those who I find more case worthy.

[armlx]

I won't encourage weak leads if I think they are dumb and unfounded arguments. That only leads to bad lynches.

[armlx]

Also:
Remind me if things start to lull again to look at how players reacted to Blaze claiming recruit. Any cult leaders would have thought that Blaze was recruited by the 'other cult' - and if someone soon after introuced the idea of two cults that may be an accidental bread crumb.

Upon review, no one who hadn't already voiced that they had assumed 2 cults did this.

[armlx]

I made my posts fairly insubstantial as I felt, well, there wasn't much susbstantial to argue over. I made the points I felt needed to be made, and nothing more.

As for vollkan, I figured letting him do whatever he was doing was best, given how he completely shredded me in House Mafia doing basically what he was doing here to Skruffs.

[armlx]

Some random thoughts:

Unsure on CKD. His early game seemed somewhat odd, but since then he has been fairly steady. Another thing I noted was he was really surprised about Blaze's claim of recruit, though not sure if it means anything.

90% sure hjallti (well, whoever replaced him) is town, a lot based on how his predecessor attacked mno for a soft claim, and partly because I'm 90% sure I know what his role is based on his and penguins posts.

I'm confused by Occult this game.

This post by aioqwe's predecessor makes me wary of him

I want to go with viking's 'kill a scum either way' tactic but the fact that neither mnowax or blaze hasn't claimed yet is making me a little leery of doing that.

After re-looking over his posts, TSS is very single-minded from the get-go and is looking to lynch blaze.

TSS could be a Cult Recruiter (or a another SK, but I doubt that) just trying to get rid of competition.

Wax's statement of 'I could be wrong' makes him either a Watcher or a tracker, or just a really cunning recruit.

States he believes Mno, but no reason why. Then sets up a lynch chain...please viking, why couldnt this go the other way, lynch Mno and if he is town lynch Blaze?

Why would you want it to go the other way? Do you not trust Wax or is it something else?

Its so non-commital yet directing support to every option.

aioqwe: Why were you suspicious of Occult yesterday? Can you give any specific reasons?

[armlx]

I fail to see your point as to why I can't hold them responsible. It's still actions. We can't question them about the logic obviously, but its still note worthy.

Me being 90% sure about hjallti's role comes more from his posts, but a little from penguins. Rather not reveal my exact thoughts on this for the obvious reasons of revealing people's potential roles being bad.

By solid, I was trying to convey something between seeming pro-town on its own and par for the course with what I have seen of him as town.

[armlx]

Obv, but something to consider is that those who start exhibiting scum tells later with no early indication are less likely to be recruiters and more likely recruits.

[armlx]

Kat's post, on top of giving off town vibes, are consistent with the role I have Hjallti read for.

[armlx]

I'm still re-reading since I felt I should give the game a bit more attention.

Meanwhile, @armlx: I can't necessarily speak for my predecessor, but I'll give a more detailed comment once I've read to that point. (I forgot, but didn't you recently mention that replacements shouldn't necessarily be held responsible for the replaced’s actions?) I was suspicious of Occult yesterday mostly because of his support for blazerunner who claimed cult recruit. His seemed to provide subtle defense, until blazerunner "claimed" Which would seem consistent with what a leader would do to a new a recruit. Since blazerunner turned out to not be a recruit or leader, my suspicion of him has waned a bit.

Hmm, seems valid enough.

As for the question, I never said that exactly. If a replacement's actions drastically differ from the replacee's in a pro-town fashion I will err on the side of ignoring pre-replacement things, but if they don't really or the pre-replacement stuff was just that bad I will not let them have a clean slate. Your case was the former.

[armlx]

Its possible I'm just seeing things that aren't there, but I got the read on Hjallti's role from Hjallti's posts and Kat's posts just confirm it.

[armlx]

The one he FOSed you.

[armlx]

Also, with 10 days before deadline, if you think he's scummy and aren't suspicious of anyone else (or haven't voiced any suspicions on anyone else), why aren't you voting him?

This is the question I really want a solid answer to, as his last response seemed kind of lackluster.

[armlx]

I don't feel Skruffs is being scummy, I think he's just trying to defend his ego at this point.

I am a HE by the way. Assuming that was a DGB related typo?

[armlx]

Currently waiting on Vollkan's next post, but he's still most likely where my vote is going.

[armlx]

I have said before I believe with about 90% certainty Hjallti is another, very non-cult leader role.

I find vollkan scummiest ATM because of his whole "Skruffs is scummy, but I'm not voting him yet thing" which is really stray to me. I agree with you he's much more likely to be recruit than recruiter if he is scum, hence the most likely in my last post as I am debating whether trying to shoot in the dark for a recruiter is better then lynching someone I am putting on 1/4 town, 1/2 recruit, 1/4 recruiter or something close.

[armlx]

I find vollkan scummiest ATM because of his whole "Skruffs is scummy, but I'm not voting him yet thing" which is really stray to me.

Which is scummy because...?

Extremely non-commital. It seems to me you are trying to test the waters for a wagon on him before making a decision to vote.

[armlx]

I have said before I believe with about 90% certainty Hjallti is another, very non-cult leader role.

why?

Reading his posts, I find it pretty evident. I don't really feel like I should talk about exactly what it is for obvious reasons.

[armlx]

Vollkan has not voted or posted a list of suspects yet, the two things I wanted from him.

Vote Vollkan

[armlx]

I don't think skruffs is a newb.

He has over 5000 posts.... def not. I think he was just saying his defiance is very newb like in ways.

[armlx]

I just realized I'm a fucking idiot. My whole Hjallti read was completely invalid.

I had Hjallti on vig based on his whole double vig post and penguin's FOS of mno for claiming that blaze had killed the person she presumably did. However, I forgot about the entire events of last night. Right now this theory is only valid if TSS is SK, Blaze actually blocked him (or someone else random) last night, mno killed blaze and was culted, and mno is now lying out his ass about targetting yos b/c he thought it would be a valid avenue to pursue aka really improbable scenario.

After considering this, I've come to realize there's probably a decent chance of SK Hjallti, if only based on the penguin thing, but I'm not even that sure.

Skruffs: I have stated I think this whole argument I really doubted its was a scum tell on your part.

Also, newb implies a new player who isn't familiar with how to play. While having 5k post != good necessarily (twito and ryan have over 3k...), it means you definitely aren't a newbie.

[armlx]

Oh, huh, my mistake.

I wouldn't really expect the cult or cults to be trying to kill right now anyway.

Once the cults start killing, the town has already lost anyways as it means they think they are in a dominant enough position that their only threats are the other scum.

[armlx]

The issue is the cults have 1 shot kill immunity, meaning if they were right they would be using 2 recruits to do so, and the other cult would probably still win by basically being a giant mason group. And if the person was actually the SK, even bigger blow outs.

[armlx]

I'll explain the set up one: This game is semi-open, all possible roles are in one of Norinel's post on the first page. The end result is there is no protection from night kills save a lucky RB or the 1 shot immunity SK's and cult leaders have. There was a doctor that protected from cult recruits, but vikingfan died yesterday.

[armlx]

Meh, sorry, its an issue thats been discussed a couple times before, I thought you just wanted an answer.

And by cults, I did mean recruiters.

[armlx]

Not town and not my faction implies that being not town and your faction is a possibility.

:teach:

That said the slip was pretty irrel and not worth the attention it got.

[armlx]

That actually makes a lot more sense then I assumed it would.

[armlx]

Hmm, interestingly enough my Hjallti theory works if mno is straight up lying and TSS is the SK. N1 TSS is blocked, Vig A policy kills DGB. N2 vig kills vikingfan who had garnered suspicion and TSS kills Blaze who could stop his kills again.

[armlx]

Wow, that makes so much more sense then lynching someone whose most likely role is recruit.

Unvote, Vote mnowax

[armlx]

Recruits are unrecruitable I think. At least, thats how it usually works, and it falls under the same logic as mafia being unrecruitable as if a recruit was recruited then they would know who the other recruiter is.

[armlx]

This is not at all out of line with what I have seen of Sly, though I have no clue if its in line with pro- or anti- town behavior.

[armlx]

Bump, still liking my theory. Will swap to vollkan if he gets 3 so we can ensure a lynch.

[armlx]

aioqwe:

Hmm, interestingly enough my Hjallti theory works if mno is straight up lying and TSS is the SK. N1 TSS is blocked, Vig A policy kills DGB. N2 vig kills vikingfan who had garnered suspicion and TSS kills Blaze who could stop his kills again.

Hjallti being vig based on his posting of the 2 vig theory. Though the penguin FOSing mno for claiming a kill she made thing no longer fits into this theory, which was another one of the vig tells I thought I had on Hjallti. If you can see any flaws with this logic, let me know.

[armlx]

aioqwe: Yeah, the gist is

N1:
Unknown Vig policy kills DGB
TSS (sk) is blocked my mno

N2:
Hjallti kills vikingfan, who was under suspicion yesterday
TSS kills Blaze to try and cover up the RB N1 thing by killing the person most likely to talk about it
Mno attempts to recruit Yos, it fails meaning Yos dying is a good thing for him and he tries to press a Yos lynch on poor reasoning.

[armlx]

SL: During the whole dumb Skruffs argument, my claim to know your role was heavily questioned. I revealed my thoughts once I realized my logic was flawed what I thought it was, but then later realized a minor alteration to the scenario I thought of explained a lot of the things that occurred earlier (mno's false watcher pseudo claim, his attacking yos D2, DGB dying N1, etc)

The TSS = SK talk comes from the 1 kill N1, and that said kill was DGB who seems more likely to be a policy kill then an SK trying to kill those who stand the biggest threat to him, and I'd assume a N1 vig kill in this set up, so I'm assuming one kill was stopped. Blaze claimed to have blocked TSS, so that would explain a missing kill.

[armlx]

Also, aioqwe, I never said SL should claim, I don't see how my views on claiming conflict with my actions. Like I said above, I revealed my thought processes when I realized they were originally wrong (mno + Hjallti being vig, off as I don't see Penguin killing DGB N1), then posted the correction later. If my theory is right, we kill a CL and its definitely a trade up, if its not the odds of SL being vig aren't that much higher than anyone else.

Of course, if the SK decided to kill DGB N1 everything I've determined it wrong, but I see no logical reason for them to not kill those who are most likely to find them, especially with no protective roles to outguess.

[armlx]

Judging by what he started the day with I'm assuming he had no clue he would be RBed.

[armlx]

I realize it doesn't make sense that he wouldn't, but look at how he phrased his "Yos didn't die to my kill, must be scum". He evidently had no clue about potentially being RBed. Other thing that leads me to this is a lack of reason to vig Yos, but definitely value to recruiting him.

[armlx]

I was going more along the line of logic that he knew he was going to be roleblocked, got recruited, then decided to try and get me lynched without really thinking through the fact that everyone else'd also know he got roleblocked. Perhaps planning to suddenly "realize" Blaze had said he was going got roleblocked after I get lynched and come up town.

I donno, it still dosn't make THAT much sense, but it was the most logical explination for his actions I could come up with.

Also possible. However, between these two scenarios, I'm just as sure he is cult as I am vollkan is, and also find it more likely he is a leader than vollkan.

[armlx]

If you can find a flaw in my theory, I will gladly unvote. Just posting "I R NOT CULT" will not get me to do that.

[armlx]

Mno attempts to recruit Yos, it fails meaning Yos dying is a good thing for him and he tries to press a Yos lynch on poor reasoning.

Maybe I am missing something, but why is it rational for recruiter-mno to push an insane lynch against Yos?

I mean, aside from the RB issue, I don't see the rationale for mno-recruiter to do something like that. Moreover, I give mno more credit than to think he'd really be that careless as a CR.

My assumption is mno tried to recruit Yos and failed. That means to him Yos is a recruiter, SK, steadfast, or doc-protected. First 2 are things his vig claim covers and that are a threat to him (this is assuming that he forgot all about the RB, which it seems he did), the 3rd is just a threat to him and could be awkward to deal with, 4th is just awkward.

[armlx]

I think if we're going to assign insanity to Mno, it has to be across the board. If he was insane enough to completely dismiss the possibility of being blocked, he would be insane enough to target Yos for no good reason/aggressively push his lynch. Don't try to make an argument by ascribing sense to only one or two specific parts of Mno's play. Insanity is a null tell.

The only sense I feel I'm ascribing is him as cult leader wanting to target Yosarian. If you see somewhere else my argument fails this issue, I would like to hear it.

[armlx]

Skruffs:

1) How couldn't mno be recruited if he's a vig? I'm confused as to what you are saying here.

2) He has reason to claim the right target as there's possibly a tracker and getting caught in a lie = awkward. Though that does bring up a question.

MOD, if a tracker targets someone who is RB'ed, do they see them targeting the person they intended to target or see them doing nothing.

[armlx]

5 days till deadline......

CKD, Nabakov, tss, vollkan, please put your votes somewhere.

[armlx]

Skruffs:

1) How couldn't mno be recruited if he's a vig? I'm confused as to what you are saying here.

2) He has reason to claim the right target as there's possibly a tracker and getting caught in a lie = awkward. Though that does bring up a question.

MOD, if a tracker targets someone who is RB'ed, do they see them targeting the person they intended to target or see them doing nothing.

MNOWAX is way too public a figure to be recruited now. Cult recruiters are trying to recruit people who A) are going to help their side win and B) are not going to get killed in doing so. So reasonable, pro-town, nonbelligerent targets are very likely the targets, NOT claimed power roles. It's just too risky.

I see. So your point is Mno will die anyways so why bother lynching him?

[armlx]

CKD - do you think that MNOWAX is actually a cult recruiter? If not, do you think Armlxs sudden gungho-ocity towads lynching him is unusual for a player who, up until now, has been stringently against supporting any wagon that wasn't based on lynching a cult recruitor?

Interested in CKD's response, but I have comments on this later.

[armlx]

Oh, and CKD is scum... again!!!

Yes.

unvote:Volkan

vote:curiouskarmadog

That skruffs vote with no explanation is really awkward looking and definitely scummy, but I still think my Mno theory explains all the night actions too well to ignore.

[armlx]

Why is CKD cow? I thought that was hasfdgasfdkhslas?

[armlx]

Skruffs has to be town. He's attacking you for attacking someone attacking him.

[armlx]

you lynch me you lynch a vig. i am warning all of you guys.

that is all. i trust you guys not to kill me.

[rant]

These kind of posts mean absolutely nothing. I don't understand how people can think they can get away with what more or less amounts as an appeal to emotion as their defense. Seriously, your role is unconfirmed, we have reasons to suspect you. If you want to defend yourself, use thinks we have reason to think about or believe, not this junk[/rant]

[armlx]

you

re

claiming vig does not really make me feel more inclined to keep you alive here...

Fixed.

[armlx]

He was roleblocked, he didn't target anyone, so wether he is town or scum, Yosarian was not targetted by him.

Better safe than sorry.

unvote:mnowax

What? We already went over how it still shows up as a targeting attempt. I don't get what you are talking about.

[armlx]

1) Skruffs did not claim watcher. He was using the phrase differently then you are interpreting it.

2) Norinel confirmed if a person is RB'ed and watched it looks like they targeted who they intended, just the ability didn't work.

[armlx]

No, mno definitely did target someone (or claimed to have). He claimed to have targeted Yos2 last night.

Skruffs isn't lying, you are just reading what he said wrong. Well, that or its the worst lie ever.

[armlx]

Here is what he said about mnowax from what was 'seen'.

1. "He was roleblocked" (Blaze said he was blocking mno and I have no reason to believe he didn't)
2. "he didn't target anyone" (watching would reveal the target of the person being RB'd, no target 'seen', so no recruiter)

I think my interpretation is correct.

Skruffs-Tracker would only see #2.

I'm really done arguing this past here. Skruffs is bound to post before the 22nd and prove you wrong.

[armlx]

I disagree; the concept of multiple roles had already been introduced yesterday, so a *smart* vig may have thought that it was possible that there were multiple vigs.

See how my theory encompasses said issue. Its really convenient to have everything fit together so well.

[armlx]

And what if he's not a cult recruitor?

I was really wrong?

[armlx]

Why doesn't it make sense or seem likely? Everything fits perfectly.

[armlx]

Mno's play in the other games I've been in with him doesn't make much sense, and he even proclaims this fact.

[armlx]

Skruffs has to be town. He's attacking you for attacking someone attacking him.

Huh? You're being ironic here, right? If not, I really don't understand where you are coming from.

That's just not scum logic. And by has to be town, I mean is not likely scum for now.

[armlx]

I'm starting to think that all these speculations on roles and night actions are scummy because town can have absolutley zero PoV on it.

How can they not?

[armlx]

Because they don't know who are talking from a position of knowledge before equivalently valid hypotheses.

I still don't see your point. Your point is townies can't make assumptions based on role claims?

[armlx]

I really don't trust Mno to A) have thought about that and B) to really care as the odds of a watcher still being town and alive past tonight is fairly low IMO.

[armlx]

I thought Hjallti did?

[armlx]

vote skruffs

Is the majority of the case.

[armlx]

Woah, lets see this:

1) Mno goes off on an appeal to emotion (post 804)

2) Goes back on Yos targeting reason (806)

3) Blames Skruffs for the wagon I am leading.... Oh wait, I get it. 2 + 1 > 0 + 1?

Also, aioqwe, its not just the Skruffs vote from CKD, its that when called out to vote he wagoned someone (and probably the most pro-town someone to wagon) with no reason.

[armlx]

No, again, said theory encompasses that. The other vig (prob Hjallti, possibly other vigs unaware of each other's presence) assumed given the every other night vig thing that 2 vig's wasn't an impossibility.

Also, as for "vibes" in House Mafia, that wasn't a vibe. That was me making 80,000 mistakes in the first 8 pages and you noticing most of them

[armlx]

I'm trying to figure if its possible for Skruffs to have completely missed the claim.

[armlx]

Hmm, that makes things easy. I <3 counterclaims.

Unvote, Vote CKD

[armlx]

So, just stone nothing to say about the counter claim?

[armlx]

That was seriously bad claiming. GG.

vote: CKD

This. I see no reason to call a mason claim "bad claiming" unless you yourself are a mason or lying scum.

Vote aioqwe

as per above.

[armlx]

I would be willing to trust a mason claim right then, especially with good odds of a counterclaim if he was lying.

[armlx]

There are cases against him and I felt there was a strong enough case against him as scum. Furthermore, I don't think that the proper mason play is to claim as what skruffs said would be applicable. Thus, I felt that it was a bad claim and he was scum.

He claimed mason, there is appoximately a 0% chance of him being a recruiter.

Furthermore, if I'm going to counter-claim, I'd make it more obvious. I hate iffy counterclaims that are like, you know, I meat be mason I might not be...

If you are scum, you could also phrase your posts in an iffy way to mislead other people, which is exactly what I believe you were doing.

[armlx]

Unless he was a fake claiming recruiter. Kind of like how MNOWAX has a 0% chance of being a recruiter, since he's a vig. Right?

I have my doubts about him being vig.

[armlx]

NN: CKD's claim was 100% the right play. In the event he lives, it creates an even bigger WIFOM then not claiming.

Also,

Unvote, FOS aioqwe

. Upon further thought, more likely recruit then recruiter.

Also, SL not being vig throws a kink in my whole mnowax theory. I'm inclined to believe him for now.

[armlx]

I agree. Give us your recruiter and we'll guarantee your group amnesty until the other cult is destroyed. Considering our track record, you may have nothing to worry about.

This post is major lols.

[armlx]

Oh, I see what you did there.

[armlx]

Sly: It is not against the rules if doing so isn't not playing to win.

[armlx]

I'm curious as to why you would vote somebody on them apparently claiming recruit. Sure, they might well be recruiter, but that's not really a good enough reason. It's been discussed ad nauseum why Recruiter lynch >>>>>>>>>> Recruit lynch, so surely a recruit claim doesn't automatically merit a kneejerk vote?

\

I tend to think that a recruiter is at least as likely to claim recruit as a recruit would be. Besides, if someone claims recruit, then we know that they've pretty much got to be some kind of scum but we don't know what kind, which automatically makes them a pretty good lynch at least.

I definitely agree with that, despite the D1 recruit claim being a lie.

[armlx]

I still believe a recruiter wouldn't be that aggressive though.

[armlx]

Yes you do.

That's exactly why you were saying MNOWAX was a recruiter, yesterday.

No, I was saying Mno was a recruiter as the actions all added up to it.

[armlx]

I still think aioqwe is a recruit not a recruiter claiming recruit. Only thing I'm wondering is who recruited him and when/why. He seems like a very low profile recruiting target.

[armlx]

I still think aioqwe is a recruit not a recruiter claiming recruit. Only thing I'm wondering is who recruited him and when/why. He seems like a very low profile recruiting target.

I donno, Arlmx, why did you recruit aioqwe?

I see what you did there...

In all seriousness, as CL, I would avoid recruiting players I feel could be a liability to me.

[armlx]

Ah, ok, I understand.

So, what you're saying is, aioqwe recruited you?

Oh, I see what you did/are trying to do here.

[armlx]

Armlx: Could you explain why you think aioqwe is "more likely recruiter then recruit"?

I don't feel a recruiter would put themself into this scenario by lynching an OBVIOUSLY confirmable role like mason.

[armlx]

This just seems like a bunch of noise to me. Let the war of the brick walls commence and what not.

[armlx]

Why is armlx ejecting himself from the conversation?

Sounds to me a lot like the whole Skruffs vs. me argument yesterday, which was just pointless.

[armlx]

Umm, yeah, its pretty obvious aioqwe is scum at this point, but I don't think he's a CL.

[armlx]

Beep is still a cult leader though, IMO.

Why?

[armlx]

Claim and/or die and what not.

[armlx]

Do I really have to claim?

Claim stalling at L-1. Another scum tell, one that would mainly apply to a recruiter or SK.

I'm strongly reconsidering my position just based on this one action.

[armlx]

and i my vig went through!

And the SK kill went where?

[armlx]

Skruffs, claim now.

This.

[armlx]

Which means that MNOWAX started claiming vig after he recruited VOllkan.

Skruffs, so your logic is Mno could talk to vollkan the night he recruited him post-actions resolving and pre-day and recruited him N0?

Vote Skruffs

I'm willing to trust Mno for now.

[armlx]

There is a vig dead; there is no reason to think that there is another.

False, see Hjallti's post.

I'm not allied with either cult and can't be

Also false, you CAN be a recruiter.

the players that are hopping onto me saying that I am a cult recruitor are ignoring that I would have no reason to be "bussed" by aioqwe if he was my recruit or attacked by Vollkan if he was my recruit.

Except aiqowe didn't end the day with his vote on you, did he? Looks more distancing then bussing to me, though I would STRONGLY doubt vollkan was your recruit.

[armlx]

"I am nightkillable, mnowax could be telling the truth" or "I am not nightkillable, mnowax is lying"

Strike that, reverse it.

[armlx]

So here's my theory. Mnowax was recruited N1 or so by that fuchsia-king armlx; this explains why he was allowed to threaten to betray any cult that came a-calling -- because no cult could successfully recruit him thereafter. Yos was probably recruited by the ceruler the same night, if he's not unrecruitable altogether himself. I mention Yos here because N2, armlx tries to recruit Yos, fails, infers badguy; next day his henchman tries to drum up some enmity against Yos to get rid of a thorn in his leader's side while keeping armlx some deniability. N3, armlx recruits aioqwe. And thus to last night, when Armlx tried to target Skruffs and failed, and mnowax claimed the targeting himself on armlx's behalf again.

From an observer's point of view I see no holes in this to point out besides the part about me actually wanting to N1 recruit Mno over any other target. Just a matter of whether people believe this is what occurred.