Mini 581 - Andy's Death - Over

[Sethaniel]

vote: goborage

based solely on the aesthetics of the name.

[Sethaniel]

This setup would be absolutely shattered by a massclaim.

It's also safe to say there won't be any fake claims.

Explain? Sorry, but I'm really new at this. Couldn't/Wouldn't everyone just claim to be a townie?

[Sethaniel]

I have to agree with Ythill and camisade. Why would the SK finder claim today, when the SK will just kill him at night?

Therefore, I have to wonder about JDodge for saying the finder's got no reason not to claim, and avin, for agreeing with JDodge and promoting a massclaim.

[Sethaniel]

@Ythill: as far as I can tell, avinas hasn't changed from supporting JDodge. His last post was

And gauging reactions from either the fake-claim or real claim's announcement will provide for some in depth analysis.

@the massclaim debate: I admit I haven't completely thought this out, but my initial impression is -- Every time we "improve the odds" for lynching scum, we also move closer to lynch-or-lose.

unvote

[Sethaniel]

Sorry, I am terrible at math.

why are you using such a bogus math argument such as "7/7" (would SK ever kill themselves?) Why are you saying "2/7" when assuming we lynch town it's actually 4/6?

Could everyone using all these fractions/ratios please explain where their numbers are coming from?

[Sethaniel]

All right, I guess I should vote. I can either put JDodge at L-1 or make it a tie between JD and avinas. (noting that JD and avinas are the two dissenting votes.) As a town, we seem pretty committed to either JD or avinas as scum, so I think voting for anyone else would pretty well be a waste of time.

I'm going to base my vote on one main thing:

I don't think JDodge is the SK finder.

He's the most vocal proponent of massclaim, repeatedly saying that the SK finder should have no reason not to claim. If he's truly 100% behind that statement, then if he were the SK finder, he should say so.

So, he isn't the SK finder.

So why such a push to identify the finder? It's at least possible it's because he's the SK.

vote: JDodge

[Sethaniel]

I think this math chat might be losing some of the players (or boring them to death) and we should end it soon, though JDodge should get a chance to respond first

qft

[Sethaniel]

regarding the whole goborage post #43 issue-- isn't it possible he just didn't read carefully and didn't notice that Ythill had unvoted?

I'm inclined to (cautiously) agree that it would be a little obvious for avina and jd to be scumbuddies. They're the only two holding to the unpopular massclaim argument, and why would the scum single themselves out like that? I'd be more likely to cast one of them as the SK.

[Sethaniel]

First of all, sorry for not posting recently. I sprained my back and I'm on some really fun meds.

anyway:

unvote

@Ythill: As regards the quick L-1, my defense to that is "newbie." I haven't played much on this site, and didn't realize how involved the D1 discussions can be. I'm used to much quicker lynches (on other sites,) and my comments at the time of my JD vote were relevant to that.

@avinas: Your analysis/comments to me are just a restating of Ythill's, but with a much more accusatory/aggressive tone. You've done this several times with different people. It's almost as if you're looking for a bandwagon to join.

I'd vote avinashv, but now that I have a better understanding of how this site's games work, I'm more hesitant to move someone to L-1. So,

FoS avinashv

.

[Sethaniel]

@avinas: I didn't avoid your question. It's the same as Ythill's, which I answered.

@Ythill: From a game-players standpoint, I think I like the prolonged discussion on this site. In my experience, the faster lynches seem to benefit the scum. Firstly, because it makes it a lot easier to bandwagon without raising too much suspicion, since everyone is voting quickly and without much thought at first. Secondly, because the relative lack of explanation or rationale for votes makes it harder to pick out who might be scum while looking back after the lynch.
It's less a logical game over there, and more a character-driven experience. The quicklynching feels more like a real lynch mob would probably react, voting based on emotion rather than logic.

[Sethaniel]

All right- here I am. And what I think right now, for what it's worth.

@JDodge: I still think it's a bad idea for the SK finder to claim. That said, he'd have to know, given his experience level, that backing down from an unpopular stance would make him look scummy.

@goborage: again, I think the 43 incident has been pushed way out of proportion.

@Ythill: Either the best defense is a good offense, or he's pro-town. No one else has posted as much lengthy analysis combined with specific questions directed toward other players.

@avinashv: re the whole JD massclaim- avina abandoning an unpopular stance has definitely made him look scummy. He seems very defensive, now, and many of his recent posts have been attacking various players, as if he's trying to get the town's attention turned toward anyone but him.

@Dave: more posting recently, but still don't have much of a read on him.

@camisade: not much posting, beyond the big player analysis post. Seems to base a lot of his opinion on activity= good.

Jenter: still pushing for a JD lynch, despite everyone else jumping ship. Tends to get a little hostile in some of his posts.

I guess I'd have to say that right this second Ythill seems the most town to me, and avinashv seems the most scummy.

[Sethaniel]

@JDodge- I am what?

[Sethaniel]

@JDodge: goborage's post is on the previous page, and your post immediately follows Jenter's, it's confusing.

[Sethaniel]

Avinashv is my first scummiest player.

[Sethaniel]

vote: avinashv

I was hesitant at first because I got attacked for being too quick to move us to L-1 with my previous vote.

Avinashv has had plenty of time at L-2 to mount a defense, and he hasn't really done anything. It seems like he's only too happy to avoid attention and let JD and Ythill debate each other.

[Sethaniel]

@ Dave: You've never voted Avinas. Why did you say you had?

I made a mistake. I have not voted him. Yet my name is on the Voute Count.

Dave's "mistake" was made

before

the incorrect Vote Count was posted, so that's not a valid reason.

I want to hear from Dave and avin on this issue.

[Sethaniel]

Haven't heard from Cam in a while, either.

[Sethaniel]

@Dave: I think Ythill means he'll hammer soon, if avinas doesn't say anything.

[Sethaniel]

Re SK: The Role PM at the beginning of the thread says "You may PM me the name of a player." It doesn't appear to be the case that the SK must NK.

Right now, I'd have to say I'm rather suspicious of gob.

Even if we screw up and hit town, the SK can simply choose not to NK and we'll move to Day 3. Or if his hunches are good he'll hit scum, which would be even better.

It's interesting how he's positive the SK can choose to no kill. And how he says it'll be okay if we mislynch today.

Discussing NKs seems to always get bogged down in WIFOM. For example, the Jenter NK could be construed as pointing toward JD, since Jenter clearly didn't like him/ was convinced he was scum -- but, it could just as easily be a ploy by the SK to make it look as though JD must have been the SK since who else would want Jenter dead?

Gob says I applied a time constraint but I’ve done no such thing. Any one of those three could have unvoted but they did not. I could have simply hammered in #244 but I did not. What I applied was a time extension before hanging the player who has been my explicit #1 suspect for most of the day.

I honestly would have unvoted, not that it means much now, and I never got a chance. -Would it really hurt to wait a little longer for avina? A "time extension" doesn't really do much when that person has no chance to check the thread and see it. You basically said "you have a few hours to post or you're dead" which IS blackmail. That really looks to me just as a way to justify your hammer.

In every single game I've played in, any time a townie is lynched

someone

says "I would have unvoted, but you didn't give me enough time."

Everyone agrees that it's bad play to hammer without warning, but no one agrees on how much time is enough. At the time he was hammered, Avin hadn't posted in seven days - Sunday to Sunday. He says he was on self imposed internet ban for finals week, but he really should have let us know he was V/LA. Also, Avin was at L-1 for over 24 hours.

I dislike two of Ythill's moves. I don't like the rush-lynch on avinashv

Why is gob trying to put the blame on Ythill for avin's lynch? He posted after Avin was put on L-1 and Ythill had announced his intent to hammer. Gob could have unvoted, if he was concerned about the supposed speed of the lynch.

Sorry this is a little disjointed, I don't have much time today. For now, FoS goborage.

[Sethaniel]

@Ythill: Because gob brought it up in post 266.

[Sethaniel]

JD, don't you find it suspicious that gob and seth asked the hammer to be withheld but didn't unvote after the forewarning?

@Ythill: Why are you saying I asked for the hammer to be withheld?

@Gob: I do think it's strange that JD and Ythill both seem to agree that you are decidedly pro-town, even though they disagree on almost everything else.

[Sethaniel]

@gob: I think Dave is trying to stay under the radar as much as possible. He only really seems to say anything concrete when he's pushed. Could be scummy, could just be newbie.

[Sethaniel]

A few quick thoughts:

SK thoughts:

JD has been pushing for an FBI claim since day 1. Seems likely he would have claimed if he were the FBI, especially given his post #283.

Ythill now seems to be advocating a claim. Unless he is the FBI and investigated Jenter. Unlikely, since Jenter didn't really seem to be on his radar Day 1.

gob made a set of posts trying to figure out mathematically whether or not it would be good for FBI to claim. I didn't really follow all of it, I'm terrible at math. I think his argument came down in favor of a claim. It's interesting that he asked JD's opinion of an FBI claim today. It's possible he is the FBI, trying to decide whether or not to claim. It's also possible he's the SK, trying to lure the FBI into claiming while making it look as though JD is most responsible for the claim.

Cam hasn't said anything recently on the FBI issue.

Dave hasn't said anything since Day 1.

[Sethaniel]

logic is more and more becoming a failing point in mafia

qft

I'm really sick of all the math-based arguments.

WIFOM, WIFOM, yeah, I know. I'm starting to feel like every time I say anything, this game or any other, someone jumps all over me with a "your stupid WIFOM argument is so pointless." Whether it's WIFOM or not, at least I'm still posting.

(Why "thankfully" anyway, Ythill?)

So, JD, psychoanalytically, you think I'm scum? Mafia or SK? If mafia, with whom?

@Ythill: I think what I meant was, it seems as if, since you advocate so strongly, if you were the FBI, you would have claimed, unless you investigated Jenter.

Why do I get the feeling that this push for everyone to clarify their stance re: FBI claim is possibly a gambit?

[Sethaniel]

I don't think that a consensus vote should make the FBI want to claim anyway. . . 3 of the people still in this game are not acting with the best intentions of the town in mind, and whichever way those people vote can greatly affect the outcome of the consensus.

qft

What is this vote really going to do for the town? FBI is under no obligation to abide by it.

I think it's most likely going to be used later as evidence towards the lynch. Either "he voted for FBI claim, so he's SK" or "he didn't vote for FBI claim, so he's Mafia" or "he wouldn't vote, so he's scum of some sort. . ."

[Sethaniel]

You demonstrated this by attempting a WIFOM process of elimination to narrow down the possibilities. But when it was clearly stated that an FBI claim would narrow down the SK possibilities in the same way, you balked.

Really? Huh. I hadn't thought of it that way.

I was getting a definite vibe that no matter which way I voted, certain people were going to use that as evidence that I was scum.

Of course, damned if you do and damned if you don't, right? Refusing to vote also singles me out for attack.

I vote yes on FBI claim.

Honestly, my top suspect for SK is gob.

[Sethaniel]

Playing the newbie card, feel free to skip this next part: What exactly counts as "scumhunting?" Would someone give me a definition with examples? I think I'm trying to play the game, and in every game I'm in, somebody says I post a lot, but I'm not hunting. Does it have something to do with aggression? As in, instead of phrasing something as a question, state it as an accusation? Or perhaps it has to do with my stylistic liking for words such as "perhaps," "maybe," and "seems?"

Back to the game:

about the whole Dave = noob thing, why haven't you simply meta'd him?

If this is his first game, how would that help?

Regarding the Dave/avinas voting thing: Ythill asked Dave why he said he was voting for Avinas when he wasn't. Dave replied that the Vote Count was messed up. But the incorrect Vote Count came after Dave and avinas both said Dave was voting avinas.
So, according to Ythill, the town thing to do would have been to ignore the fact that Dave's reply made no sense and focus on the fact that Ythill's Nibbler argument was silly? I didn't "support Ythill's weak case" so much as attack Dave's weak response.

I still think gob is most likely SK.
In his post #21, he puts avinas at L-1 and asks that the hammer be held until avinas has a chance to claim, and again in his #23 he says "there is no rush, I'm willing to wait for a roleclaim." The only claim that can be made in this game is FBI, and at that point in the game, only the SK would have had an interest in outing the FBI.

[Sethaniel]

I still think gob is most likely to be SK so

vote: goborage.

[Sethaniel]

Yay! Hi TSQ.

Please confirm that Seth is your scumbuddy.

I'm actually kind of starting to think that maybe Ythill and Dave/TSQ are mafia.

[Sethaniel]

This game is stalling. Where's cam? Or TSQ?

[Sethaniel]

So. . .

JD and TSQ voting Ythill
Ythill and Seth voting goborage
gob voting TSQ
cam being replaced.

I suppose I'd like to wait for cam's replacement to see what he/she thinks.

[Sethaniel]

Wow. Are you always so hostile?

Fine, I'll discuss your input.

You set up a case for JD as the SK, and then when he's cleared, you decide he must be mafia? Your reasons being "He said Ythill was SK while giving evidence that pointed to Ythill as mafia" and Post 237? Could you quote that, cause Post 237 for me is JD saying "Jenter, give your opinion on someone besides me and gob."
If you're so sure JD is mafia, who's his scumbuddy?

If a player thinks that two players are scum, there is nothing, in their own view, more productive than continually saying so.

What are you trying to say? JD's been pretty adamant that Ythill is scum, as far as I can tell.

I truly don't see how you conclude JD=mafia from those points.

He only seems to commit to "hard reads" on players when the momentum, and writing, is already on the wall.

This line of reasoning is almost the same one as what Ythill's trying to use to say I'm mafia. To quote TSQ's own reasoning:

if you look at what a player states is scummy, you will often find that displayed in their own posts.

To me, that shows Ythill=mafia, not SK.

(So, after I say that I think TSQ and Ythill are scumbuddies, TSQ votes Ythill, then harasses me to comment on his actions. )

What about gob? What do you think of my reasons for voting him as the SK?

[Sethaniel]

I honestly assumed that you wouldn't hammer after I requested you not to.

Why on earth would you think that? If you were really so concerned, why didn't you unvote?

[Sethaniel]

Hi Grimmy.

[Sethaniel]

Which two, Ythill? Gob and TSQ? Cause I'm totally with you, there. They both could've taken their votes off, and they didn't. (Of course, I think all three of you are scum, but hey.)

[Sethaniel]

@Ythill: if we are a scumpair, we're sure being obvious about it.

[Sethaniel]

@Ythill: I thought it was a pretty decent meta. (inverted rabbit? ick.)

I still agree with Ythill. "I thought you wouldn't hammer because I asked you not to" doesn't seem to me like a reasonable assumption in this game. Previously, JD had a wagon on him, and Ythill unvoted because he wasn't ready to lynch yet.

Gob asked Ythill not to hammer because he wanted Avina to claim. (Who benefits most from claiming? The SK.) Gob left his vote on avinas, then attacked Ythill for hammering a townie.

Gob and Dave/TSQ both seem to be taking the scummy position of "we're not responsible for lynching a townie, because we didn't hammer."

Must go back to work. Try to post later.

[Sethaniel]

Ythill's at L-1?

[Sethaniel]

vote: Ythill

I'm pretty sure he's mafia and gob's the SK, but a scum lynch is a scum lynch.

In particular, I think the post he made inviting us to meta his play as scum in another game is suspicious.

[Sethaniel]

I still think you're the SK, and posts like that one are the reason why.

Way to fish for info on who your NK should be.

[Sethaniel]

I didn't unvote because my vote is right where I want it- on goborage.

I was kinda hoping that ythill might think he'd been hammered and say something to prove his scumminess, but oh well.

gob is clearly scum. look how when he thinks ythill's the lynch, he fishes for info on who else might be scum.

he also claims it's clear from the votes that ythill doesn't have a scum partner. he's simultaneously fosing ythill and seth as the SK, while ruling out the possibility of ythill as mafia. He's already posted a case showing that tsq and seth are not mafia buddies, and grimmy is confirmed town. that leaves only tsq and jd as possible mafia. why was he voting tsq as the SK, then? If anyone doesn't care who gets lynched, it's gob.

[Sethaniel]

I never said that TSQ and Seth aren't scum buddies.

I don't think Seth and Dave are scumbuddies

Anyone else see a contradiction there?

I use third person when I'm discussing cases, because it's easier.

[Sethaniel]

when questioned, Seth has conveniently forgotten that he did name my supposed buddy: TSQ. Maybe he's decided he doesn't want to bus anymore?

Forgotten? I ignored gob's question because it was obviously SK fishing.

The SK may or may not care about bagging a mafia.

Um, only if he forgot how the game works. If the SK doesn't get rid of mafia, he might get endgamed.

[Sethaniel]

Wow. I'm really bad at this game. I did not think Ythill was the SK.

Still think gob is scummy, though.

anyone else have any thoughts?

[Sethaniel]

@JD: why do you think gob and I are connected?

@Grimmy: you're our confirmed townie- who do you think is the scum?

@TSQ: You say JD is likely mafia- who do you see as his partner?

@gob: so your case is me + JD? Make it, then.

I'll make a case against you soon.

[Sethaniel]

I have a shitload of crap to deal with at work, and I am leaving for a day of jury duty in ten minutes, so I will just go ahead and

vote: goborage

even though we're in lylo, I think it's okay, because gob won't vote himself, grimmy hasn't been on recently, tsq already said he's going after jd, and I think jd is almost certainly town.

I have said gob is scum from the start, and I see nothing to change my mind.

His defense is just a repetition of "well then link me to a partner, and if you can't then I must not be scum."

Hopefully I will get more time to post tonight.

[Sethaniel]

My first ever scum win.

I thought it was a good game, and andy did a great job keeping up with the vote count.

@TSQ: I was like "what the hell is he doing?"

@Ythill: See, it's a good meta.

@gob: I really did think you were the SK.

[Sethaniel]

Yeah, I think TSQ is the MVP.

Since we're "off the clock" in this thread:

Ythill, what made you sure I was mafia? Was it just the linking to Dave, or did you construct that after deciding we were most likely scum?

Also, you've seen me in several games now. Given that I can't possibly be scum in all of them, what the hell am I doing that makes people think I'm cold, unhelpful, aloof, and egotistical?

[Sethaniel]

The way you buddied up to me after I attacked you was another point against you.

I did?

not very tense in a pressure situation.

You should read the Mini Love game I'm in when it's finished. . .

I think it's mostly a writing style problem. I'm working on making my points come across as 'accusations' rather than 'observations' and not using as much 'seems' and 'perhaps.'