Ok, originally my plan, if anyone outside of my three suspects got eliminated, was to spend a little time thinking about which of my three suspects to yeet, then Just Do It. I certainly wasn’t planning on using the whole 5 days. And I don’t know how long I’ll need now, but I’ll certainly need to take a bit more time to consider things. The wait will be torture for everyone else, but :shrug:
Random thoughts
- 3 mafia out of 6? That's crazy, c'mon. Should be able to nab one.
- Maybe it's the lemon? I've been townreading him because 1. every now and then he comes up with a clever-looking reason to push someone such as the Arko E-2 case, 2. he started my wagon ;3, 3. he seems chill. But it hasn't always been this way, and some of his posts do actually give me scumpings - for example, the bits where he claims he's sheeping me.
- Bella seems a bit more decisive than usual? Does that mean she is scum?
Vox: "Arghhh but then the thing that’s gnawing at me is I’m ALSO not sure why Ranger supported the vanders wagon, as town or scum that doesn’t make sense from Ranger if vanders is town. Unless it’s both of them are scum together and Ranger just got a bit eager and derailed his own partners wagon by offering support for it??"
She didn't _really_, though. Some of the posts where she's more positive about him are:
Ranger: "I'll vote Vander if there's no other option. However, his wrong scumread is a threat. If the game comes down to a heaven vote and he advocates for my death there, we lose because I'm town."
Oh wow, just checked out a Bella towngame and a Bella scumgame and she doesn't have an activity tell. Woah. Huh. Glad I checked, I guess. I'm always impressed with people who can do that.
Ok Aisa. For real this time, no making throwaway comments implying you're starting to scumread people, that turns into a self-fulfilling prophecy as we've seen!
In post 107, Aisa wrote:
I'm tinfoiling absolutely everyone and everything
My thoughts are not magically any clearer today. I looked at a few ISOs and scrolled through the game a bit last night, and no-one was super obviously scummy. I'd scroll through a couple pages and think "hmm this player seems a bit suspicious" then skim something else and think "hmm actually maybe this player is town". It felt hard to get myself to completely believe in any read or interpretation of the gamestate.
In short... I'm confused and a little paralysed. But I'll try again tonight! At this point, to get past the paralysis I'm hoping to come up with a couple simple principles or observations that can help me make a choice that is slightly >rand. I don't think I'll get to a point where I have very confident reads for this game again, but that's ok.
Maybe this plan ^ just ends up looking like
1. Townread Aureal + someone else
2. Yet someone nearly at random from the other 4.
I feel a bit better about townreading Aureal at the moment than just about any hypothesis I’ve tried entertaining at the moment - I’ve tried a lot of “maybe X is scum with Y and they are pushing townie Z” but none of these more complicated schemes feel like they actually have any chance of being right.
I just did a joint ISO of Vanders and Aureal to figure out which one is townier. Bad plan in hindsight: I was always going to read them and think they were both town. As of right now, I'm going to have to give Vanders a townread. But once I finish reading the last few posts in this ISO, I'm going to contrast Vanders with someone else.
I looove how every post from Vanders basically has a new idea in it. I hope this bodes well for his chances of being town. Though if Aureal and Vanders are both town, then this means entertaining some scumteams who are either... somewhat unlikely (e.g. can Ranger and OE be scum together? Ranger and Vox, as per Aureal's post?) or just haven't done that much all game (Enchant/OE + Bella + Vox??). I don't think these scumteams are completely impossible, but something to ponder.
![:]](./images/smilies/icon_smiling.png "Cheerful Smile")
