STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

[Creature]

Also, I need an ally to still be a danger to scum.

[Almost50]

@Creature:

Shiro, Shadow & mastina are the 3 slots you can ally with.

[Creature]

If you're scumreading me, you probably don't want me with mastina, right?

[Almost50]

I have no say on the matter, She certainly can decide for herself. I was only listing those left w/o an alliance.

[Creature]

Oh nice

[Creature]

I'll ally with Shiro then so mastina gets Shadow.

[Creature]

Hey almost is mine >:V

[Almost50]

I'll ally with Shiro then so mastina gets Shadow.

And this is one more weird choice. You first suggest that

I

wouldn't want you to ally with mastina, and when I throw the ball back at you

YOU

decide not to ally with her. It feels as if you didn't want to ally with her from the start, but was looking for an excuse not to.

Also, the next post/quote by Shiro was inaccurate. Trust me. I know whom I'm submitting to ally with.

[TheFuzzylogic99]

I could not use my ability last night bc I did not ally with anyone. As far I can tell I have a shot

I dont have a target in mind. IT would depend on the TWIE flip

[kraska77]

Fuzzy ure allying with me okay?

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Okay...

[mastin2]

The best bit of your last page was highlighting that at least one of RR / Shiro / Kraska is likely scum. But that isn’t enough to run through your list on faith. Sorry. Hunting for scum in thread is as important as the number crunching you seem to be leaning heavily on.

How fortunate for me that I can explain this at any time!

I'll start out by giving an apology. When I said I had reason for one of kraska/Shiro to be guaranteed scum upon a TWIE townflip, even without the SirCakez lynch, I thought that was true, but upon a review of my notes, I used the SirCakez lynch in factoring my read a little more than I thought, just...not in the way you'd think.

SnarkySnowman

(7):

McMenno

,

farside22

,

Titus, Not Chara, grapes, mastin2

,

TheWayItEnds

DrippingGoofball

(4):

Thefuzzylogic99

,

SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion

,

Creature

farside22

(1):

Almost50

Not Voting (9):

Shadow_Step

,

Xkfyu

,

Skybird

,

Shiro

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Reasonably Rational,

kraskaeaque

,

Firebringer, randomidget

It starts here. This is a huge wagon, on a now-known mislynch. If TWIE is scum, this distribution seems plausible enough...but what if he isn't? If TWIE is town, then that is an all-town seven-strong wagon on SnarkySnowman. So the question at hand is...if TWIE is town...why did scum let a perfectly-valid mislynch go to waste, in favor of lynching DGB, a valued asset?

Well...

farside22

(9):

Titus, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion

,

TheWayItEnds

,

grapes

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Skybird

,

Yume, Xkfyu

DrippingGoofball

(6):

Shiro

, Thefuzzylogic99

,

Not Chara, McMenno

,

Creature

,

farside22

Shadow_Step

(2):

kraskaeaque

,

Firebringer

Creature

(1):

Almost50

Xkfyu

(1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (3):

Reasonably Rational

,

mastin2, randomidget

DrippingGoofball

(LYNCH):

Thefuzzylogic99

,

SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion

,

Creature

,

Titus

,

Shiro

,

Firebringer, grapes, McMenno

,

farside22

,

Not Chara

SnarkySnowman

(2):

mastin2

,

TheWayItEnds

farside22

(1):

Almost50

Shadow_Step

(1):

kraskaeaque

Not Voting (5):

Shadow_Step

,

Xkfyu

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Reasonably Rational

,

randomidget

[/quote] Both before, and after, the farside reset, there were three names in particular voting for DGB: Thefuzzylogic, Creature, and Shiro. Now, I find the idea of that being a scumteam, of the scum putting all their eggs in one basket, absurd. So that can't be our scumteam. What it DOES indicate, though, is that at least one if not two of them are scum.

So if the scumteam can't be Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro, at least one must be town, and therefore one of Shadow/kraska/RR must be scum, as you yourself acknowledge, MoI. I view Shadow and kraska as mutually exclusive off of play. kraska and RR are mutually exclusive off of mechanics. Which leaves us at: Two of Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro PLUS one of kraska/RR/Shadow...
...OR, one of Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro PLUS both RR and Shadow. I feel Creature + RR is unlikely, as previously discussed. Similarly, I doubt Titus got stuck with two scum and that said two scum would use it as a chance to mutually vouch for each other, meaning Shiro + RR is also off the table for me. Meaning, if TWIE is town, we get:
Two of Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro PLUS one of kraska/RR/Shadow...
OR, Fuzzy+RR+Shadow.

Now, personally, I find Shadow_step to be unlikely as scum, because I maintain it to be unlikely for scum to have paired with scum on D1, and then to use "reasons" from their alliance PT to mutually justify a townread on the other. (See also: Shiro-RR above.) But aside from that, the Fuzzy-RR-Shadow scumteam is unlikely for one key reason: the two scum lynches we have had. post 3223, Varsoon"]

SirCakez

(LYNCH):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus, McMenno, grapes

,

Shiro

,

Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume

,

kraskaeaque

,

Klingoncelt

,

Reasonably Rational

farside22

(3):

killthestory/MagnaofIllusion, Firebringer

,

Almost50

Shiro

(2):

farside22

,

Skybird

McMenno

(2):

CooLDoG/Loopdan/Mathblade

,

Thefuzzylogic99

Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus

(1):

SirCakez

Not Voting (5):

Foxbird/Twin Wings/Shadow_step

,

randomidget

,

TheWayItEnds

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Creature

[/quote]

DrippingGoofball

(LYNCH):

Thefuzzylogic99

,

SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion

,

Creature

,

Titus

,

Shiro

,

Firebringer, grapes, McMenno

,

farside22

,

Not Chara

SnarkySnowman

(2):

mastin2

,

TheWayItEnds

farside22

(1):

Almost50

Shadow_Step

(1):

kraskaeaque

Not Voting (5):

Shadow_Step

,

Xkfyu

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Reasonably Rational

,

randomidget

[/quote] Take a look at where this hypothetical scumteam is voting. In both lynches, a scumteam with this composition did not attempt a counterwagon, AND did not attempt to claim towncred from bussing. They just let the lynch happen, with no resistance whatsoever, and no encouragement whatsoever. That apathy is why I eliminated this as a possibility, thus, why TWIE flipping town clears RR, because there's no viable scumteam for them.

So, that gives six possible pairings:
Fuzzy/Creature/kraska
Fuzzy/Creature/Shadow
Fuzzy/Shiro/kraska
Fuzzy/Shiro/Shadow
Creature/Shiro/kraska
Creature/Shiro/Shadow

I did use the SirCakez lynch here a little: post 3223, Varsoon"]

SirCakez

(LYNCH):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus, McMenno, grapes

,

Shiro

,

Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume

,

kraskaeaque

,

Klingoncelt

,

Reasonably Rational

farside22

(3):

killthestory/MagnaofIllusion, Firebringer

,

Almost50

Shiro

(2):

farside22

,

Skybird

McMenno

(2):

CooLDoG/Loopdan/Mathblade

,

Thefuzzylogic99

Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus

(1):

SirCakez

Not Voting (5):

Foxbird/Twin Wings/Shadow_step

,

randomidget

,

TheWayItEnds

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Creature

[/quote] Again, I find it unlikely we had an all-town lynch, and with RR as town, that indicates one of Shiro and kraska should be scum. But

furthermore

, I find the two Creature-Shadow combinations to be slightly less likely than the others, because of the same reason as I find the Fuzzy-RR-Shadow scumteam unlikely: it requires the scumteam to have put up basically zero resistance and zero attempts at towncred. That, aside from my natural Shiro/kraska suspicion, plus my lack of suspicion on Shadow_step.

Given this, I narrowed the possibilities down to:

Fuzzy/Creature/kraska

Fuzzy/Shiro/kraska

Fuzzy/Shiro/Shadow

Creature/Shiro/kraska

The bolded contain both Shiro and kraska, with the italicized containing only one of them. (It was looking at this which made me declare that we had a guaranteed scum between them, ignoring that I did make a couple of large assumptions prior to this point.)

Now, you might note that I listed Fuzzy above Creature. Well that was just pure simple gut on my part, in that I feel like given the choice between Fuzzy and Creature, Fuzzy somehow feels slightly more likely to be scum to me.


That's the TWIE townflip.
I'll do the TWIE scumflip in my next post.

[mastin2]

...Let me fix that because I know it'll be fucked up if people try to quote it. *ahem*

The best bit of your last page was highlighting that at least one of RR / Shiro / Kraska is likely scum. But that isn’t enough to run through your list on faith. Sorry. Hunting for scum in thread is as important as the number crunching you seem to be leaning heavily on.

How fortunate for me that I can explain this at any time!

I'll start out by giving an apology. When I said I had reason for one of kraska/Shiro to be guaranteed scum upon a TWIE townflip, even without the SirCakez lynch, I thought that was true, but upon a review of my notes, I used the SirCakez lynch in factoring my read a little more than I thought, just...not in the way you'd think.

SnarkySnowman

(7):

McMenno

,

farside22

,

Titus, Not Chara, grapes, mastin2

,

TheWayItEnds

DrippingGoofball

(4):

Thefuzzylogic99

,

SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion

,

Creature

farside22

(1):

Almost50

Not Voting (9):

Shadow_Step

,

Xkfyu

,

Skybird

,

Shiro

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Reasonably Rational,

kraskaeaque

,

Firebringer, randomidget

It starts here. This is a huge wagon, on a now-known mislynch. If TWIE is scum, this distribution seems plausible enough...but what if he isn't? If TWIE is town, then that is an all-town seven-strong wagon on SnarkySnowman. So the question at hand is...if TWIE is town...why did scum let a perfectly-valid mislynch go to waste, in favor of lynching DGB, a valued asset?

Well...

farside22

(9):

Titus, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion

,

TheWayItEnds

,

grapes

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Skybird

,

Yume, Xkfyu

DrippingGoofball

(6):

Shiro

, Thefuzzylogic99

,

Not Chara, McMenno

,

Creature

,

farside22

Shadow_Step

(2):

kraskaeaque

,

Firebringer

Creature

(1):

Almost50

Xkfyu

(1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (3):

Reasonably Rational

,

mastin2, randomidget

DrippingGoofball

(LYNCH):

Thefuzzylogic99

,

SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion

,

Creature

,

Titus

,

Shiro

,

Firebringer, grapes, McMenno

,

farside22

,

Not Chara

SnarkySnowman

(2):

mastin2

,

TheWayItEnds

farside22

(1):

Almost50

Shadow_Step

(1):

kraskaeaque

Not Voting (5):

Shadow_Step

,

Xkfyu

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Reasonably Rational

,

randomidget

Both before, and after, the farside reset, there were three names in particular voting for DGB: Thefuzzylogic, Creature, and Shiro. Now, I find the idea of that being a scumteam, of the scum putting all their eggs in one basket, absurd. So that can't be our scumteam. What it DOES indicate, though, is that at least one if not two of them are scum.

So if the scumteam can't be Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro, at least one must be town, and therefore one of Shadow/kraska/RR must be scum, as you yourself acknowledge, MoI. I view Shadow and kraska as mutually exclusive off of play. kraska and RR are mutually exclusive off of mechanics. Which leaves us at: Two of Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro PLUS one of kraska/RR/Shadow...
...OR, one of Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro PLUS both RR and Shadow. I feel Creature + RR is unlikely, as previously discussed. Similarly, I doubt Titus got stuck with two scum and that said two scum would use it as a chance to mutually vouch for each other, meaning Shiro + RR is also off the table for me. Meaning, if TWIE is town, we get:
Two of Fuzzy/Creature/Shiro PLUS one of kraska/RR/Shadow...
OR, Fuzzy+RR+Shadow.

Now, personally, I find Shadow_step to be unlikely as scum, because I maintain it to be unlikely for scum to have paired with scum on D1, and then to use "reasons" from their alliance PT to mutually justify a townread on the other. (See also: Shiro-RR above.) But aside from that, the Fuzzy-RR-Shadow scumteam is unlikely for one key reason: the two scum lynches we have had.

SirCakez

(LYNCH):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus, McMenno, grapes

,

Shiro

,

Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume

,

kraskaeaque

,

Klingoncelt

,

Reasonably Rational

farside22

(3):

killthestory/MagnaofIllusion, Firebringer

,

Almost50

Shiro

(2):

farside22

,

Skybird

McMenno

(2):

CooLDoG/Loopdan/Mathblade

,

Thefuzzylogic99

Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus

(1):

SirCakez

Not Voting (5):

Foxbird/Twin Wings/Shadow_step

,

randomidget

,

TheWayItEnds

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Creature

DrippingGoofball

(LYNCH):

Thefuzzylogic99

,

SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion

,

Creature

,

Titus

,

Shiro

,

Firebringer, grapes, McMenno

,

farside22

,

Not Chara

SnarkySnowman

(2):

mastin2

,

TheWayItEnds

farside22

(1):

Almost50

Shadow_Step

(1):

kraskaeaque

Not Voting (5):

Shadow_Step

,

Xkfyu

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Reasonably Rational

,

randomidget

Take a look at where this hypothetical scumteam is voting. In both lynches, a scumteam with this composition did not attempt a counterwagon, AND did not attempt to claim towncred from bussing. They just let the lynch happen, with no resistance whatsoever, and no encouragement whatsoever. That apathy is why I eliminated this as a possibility, thus, why TWIE flipping town clears RR, because there's no viable scumteam for them.

So, that gives six possible pairings:
Fuzzy/Creature/kraska
Fuzzy/Creature/Shadow
Fuzzy/Shiro/kraska
Fuzzy/Shiro/Shadow
Creature/Shiro/kraska
Creature/Shiro/Shadow

I did use the SirCakez lynch here a little:

SirCakez

(LYNCH):

Not Chara, mastin2, Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus, McMenno, grapes

,

Shiro

,

Xkfyu, SnarkySnowman, Yume

,

kraskaeaque

,

Klingoncelt

,

Reasonably Rational

farside22

(3):

killthestory/MagnaofIllusion, Firebringer

,

Almost50

Shiro

(2):

farside22

,

Skybird

McMenno

(2):

CooLDoG/Loopdan/Mathblade

,

Thefuzzylogic99

Obi-Wan Kenobi/Titus

(1):

SirCakez

Not Voting (5):

Foxbird/Twin Wings/Shadow_step

,

randomidget

,

TheWayItEnds

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Creature

Again, I find it unlikely we had an all-town lynch, and with RR as town, that indicates one of Shiro and kraska should be scum. But

furthermore

, I find the two Creature-Shadow combinations to be slightly less likely than the others, because of the same reason as I find the Fuzzy-RR-Shadow scumteam unlikely: it requires the scumteam to have put up basically zero resistance and zero attempts at towncred. That, aside from my natural Shiro/kraska suspicion, plus my lack of suspicion on Shadow_step.

Given this, I narrowed the possibilities down to:

Fuzzy/Creature/kraska

Fuzzy/Shiro/kraska

Fuzzy/Shiro/Shadow

Creature/Shiro/kraska

The bolded contain both Shiro and kraska, with the italicized containing only one of them. (It was looking at this which made me declare that we had a guaranteed scum between them, ignoring that I did make a couple of large assumptions prior to this point.)

Now, you might note that I listed Fuzzy above Creature. Well that was just pure simple gut on my part, in that I feel like given the choice between Fuzzy and Creature, Fuzzy somehow feels slightly more likely to be scum to me.


That's the TWIE townflip.
I'll do the TWIE scumflip in my next post.

[mastin2]

The math for a TWIE scumflip doesn't change much, and I'll tell you why. For a start, farside's still town. Why?

farside22

(9):

Titus, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion

,

TheWayItEnds

,

grapes

,

DrippingGoofball

,

Skybird

,

Yume, Xkfyu

DrippingGoofball

(6):

Shiro

, Thefuzzylogic99

,

Not Chara, McMenno

,

Creature

,

farside22

Shadow_Step

(2):

kraskaeaque

,

Firebringer

Creature

(1):

Almost50

Xkfyu

(1):

Shadow_Step

Not Voting (3):

Reasonably Rational

,

mastin2, randomidget

That's why. (That, ignoring kraska joining the wagon later.) TWIE, DGB (admittedly a traitor), and Skybird

all

were on the wagon there, so she remains incredibly unlikely to be scum in my eyes.

The other main change? Shiro/Fuzzy/Creature still has scum...but it's one, rather than two.
That leaves kraska/RR/Shadow as the other pool, with exactly one scum in there, no more and no less. Unfortunately, unlike a TWIE townflip, there's not much to be gleaned further from the key votecounts. But since the rest of my analysis remains the same, we're left with the possible combinations:

Shiro/kraska

Shiro/Shadow
Fuzzy/kraska

Fuzzy/RR
Fuzzy/Shadow

Creature-kraska

The italicized teams are the ones which have one of Shiro/kraska on them.

If you're wondering about a scumteam combo not on there, feel free to ask, but the analysis should be self-evident enough.

And, yes. This analysis does mean that literally the only scenario I see RR scum in is if Fuzzy is also scum. They simply don't fit as a scumbuddy for anyone else. And it makes more sense for them to be scum with TWIE than not scum with TWIE, both by my analysis and by their play.

[TheWayItEnds]

why is it.

that when people pretend to do analysis with votecounts they lose the ability to think?

[TheWayItEnds]

thats the one constant with vca.

[Creature]

mastin2

Who would you rather ally from Shiro/Shadow/me?

[farside22]

So TFL cc the vig claim from twie, whom never explained why he thought his "shot" would be successful.
I still get a scum vibe/read off creature.
Kraska scum read I have is pt releated. She is being very appeasing to me, which funny enough reads scummy to me.

Moi: I told sky and Fox to ally episode 1. They were both scum in a game I modded so I thought they would be able to read each other's tells.

I'm going to have able long chat with rr. If TWIE is scum my scum read on rr goes through the roof with the hypothetically crap idea. I can only see that coming through scum trying to tie association with their scum buddy.

[mastin2]

Who would you rather ally from Shiro/Shadow/me?

That would be Shadow_step, for a multitude of reasons. Among them, unless he has a factional ability that is tied to allying, he has no power from allying, so I give him nothing except my own power by allying, and he's the person in the POE lynchpool I currently most trust to be town.

why is it. that when people pretend to do analysis with votecounts they lose the ability to think?

Except none of the analysis I've done there is reliant entirely on the votecounts, especially not in regards to you. They highlight trends I was mostly already thinking of, prior to pointing them out, and that's one reason I feel like I really have something here, regardless of your alignment.

I freely admit my analysis makes some assumptions, but these assumptions are not at all unreasonable to make.
If you disagree, feel free to point me to which ones, because most of what I said isn't reliant on those votecounts. I chose those votecounts because I feel they, in particular, augment the analysis I was already doing. I didn't use more subjective votecounts, either from earlier or later. It was votecounts from two key areas: our scum lynch days, and no other times.

[TheWayItEnds]

how about any sentence where you made a speculation on a wagon based on me being on it?

because DGB was controlling my vote.

which ive said.

many times.

[TheWayItEnds]

like i literally havent cast a vote this game thats ended up on a votecount.

and someone you still think you can narrow things down with vca in regards to me.

[TheWayItEnds]

id be disappointed in you.

but this is pretty standard for VCA i think.

[mastin2]

how about any sentence where you made a speculation on a wagon based on me being on it?

Which I did a grand total of once, and as a sidenote at that! Very specifically, I said, TWIE being scum on there would make it plausible. I used that word carefully. Because IF you are scum, it doesn't matter if your vote wasn't yours. Scum know that you're scum, and would know where DGB was placing your vote. In other words, IF you are scum, then you count as voting SnarkySnowman even if it wasn't you casting the vote as far as VCA goes.

And if you're town?

Guess what?

My analysis remains: that was an all-town wagon!

So no.

Try again.

[TheWayItEnds]

if im town.

my vote.

that was placed there.

by scum.

makes it.

an all town.

wagon.

[TheWayItEnds]

this is incredible analysis.

can i sign up for this in all of my games.