THING OF NOTE #3
Hey, this one is a little bit more straightforward with the new material.
First, look how I caught the scum in the first place.
In post 950, HezLucky wrote:I would like to take this opportunity to call out the three scum in the game.
These are the three scum. Here's what I've realized:
I HAVE ATTACKED NEARLY EVERY SINGLE PERSON IN THIS GAME. So what? Well, the town in this game has been utter shit (admit it, it's true) so the scum have been able to direct where they want the wagons. I have been wrong on every single wagon thus far. However, I have called out almost every single person in this game thus far.
The only wagons for which I could never get support (and for which the standard response was "Hez is just attacking everyone now") were the ones on scum
if Agar is scum:
The mafia have played off me. They have subtly agreed with me everytime I've been wrong and pushed wagons in that direction. Every single time I am right they have either ignored my post or tried to discredit me, so that the town would think twice about following me.
Very simple explanation
if Hez is scum:
For the above to be true, well:
- I need to have told my buddies ahead of time that every time I attack one of them, they should discredit me. Why do I _need_ to have told them this?
- because this couldn't have happened spontaneously. Oman has already shown from today and yesterday that he has no problem voting both myself and Peabody. Therefore, Oman is not averse to bussing. If I were to start a decent attack on Peabody, Oman hopping on is pretty much a given. Unless I told him way way ahead of time not to.
- Since Peabody/Oman largely did not discredit me when I was wrong (or how would the lynches have gone through?), either
a) it's a massive massive coincidence that the ONE person that I was discredited while attacking happens to be alive and in a dichotomy with me at LyLo.
or
b) we planned this shit ahead of time, deciding we would pick ONE townie to take all the way to LyLo. Furthermore, I sculpted a damn good attack on Agar in #552 that was FUCKING IGNORED BY THE TOWN. This would require that attack to specifically fail, which we would have no way of knowing.
Here's the biggest problem:
- town outnumber scum. Town can do whatever the hell they want. If this scenario is true, it is complete luck that we are in this situation to begin with, because one or two "town" that agree with Hez when he's right and the plan is ruined.
That's some convoluted shit
Let's summarize again:
- very simple explanation - I am discredited every time I attack mafia.
- complicated explanation that requires massive coincidence. I'm sure you will be able to find some explanation for this, but ANY explanation you find will not be as simple and straightforward as the other scenario. That's the point. Mafia is full of luck and WIFOM. Most of mafia plays out that way anyway. And I would never take a WIFOM argument too seriously,
except here:
Why? because the
alternative scenario is extremely simple and straightforward
We are talking a situation with NO WIFOM versus a situation with a lot.
Let's talk about the kills:
BBMolla N1
Mykonian N2
Elmo N3
BBMolla and I were in a fight all of D1.
Mykonian died N2. At the closing parts of D2, I had called him scum.
Elmo replaced into the Kondi slot. I had a scumread on Kondi that was very visible all game.
So basically, if I've called them scum, they've died.
I'm not going to do a "if Hez is scum/town" thing here, because I have no clue why the mafia are making the kills they are.
But "if Hez is scum" is pretty simple. Let me ask you one question, the first one I am going to ask:
#1 - Why would I undermine my own credibility?
I can think of one explanation: maybe if people start viewing Hez as the VI he can focus more on looking town and less on constructing actual arguments? iunno.
You tell me. Every kill is someone I VISIBLY called scum. As in, your first thought upon death should have been "that's who Hez was accusing".
Have mafia taken every attempt to discredit me? Or have I taken every attempt to discredit myself?
This one wasn't as good as I had planned in my head :S. But I planned on making a summary, so hopefully this works:
Summary of Game
Hez is town
- Mafia killed Elmo, not realizing this is something Hez would not do.
- Mafia were going for a quickwin and all three piled on Hez at LyLo, expecting at least one person (was there anyone not suspicious of Hez?) to pile on for easy and perfect victory.
Simple
- Agar-scum has led a lot of bad wagons because he is scum. Any attack on Agar has been defended by Peabody/Oman because scum defend their mafia buddies.
Simple
- Agar still has confidence because he is scum who does not feel the reprocussions of a mislynch.
Simple
- Agar's interactions with Peabody are scum-scum. Agar has ignored Peabody because he does not feel threatened by him, and Peabody has called Agar town because a scum does not want their scumbuddy lynched.
Simple
- Agar uses the chainsaw defense on Arugula when Arugula attacks Oman. Agar spends the whole game calling Oman town. This is because Agar and Oman are mafia buddies.
Simple
- Agar is ignoring the Peabody/Oman confirmed scum wagons because Agar has stopped bothering to read this game, thinking he had it wrapped up days ago when the cop investigated him.
Simple
- Agar does not feel the anger that a town would feel when scum are creating mountainous cases on them at LyLo. This is because Agar is not town.
Simple
- Mafia have killed off Hez's scum-reads to discredit Hez.
Simple
Hez is scum
- Hez killed off all of the people he called scum for lulz. Mafia agree that Hez discrediting himself all game is a viable strategy.
WIFOM
- Hez had two of his mafia partners bus him at LyLo for town cred, then Hez turned it around and bussed his two mafia partners in succession, thinking it would be a viable strategy for Hez to go up in LyLo against someone with a cop investigation against them. Hez is fucking crazy, but we will call this
WIFOM
- Agar-scum has led a lot of bad wagons because he has had a bad game. Any attack on Agar has been defended by Peabody/Oman because the mafia intended on taking Agar to LyLo at all costs. Also, the only attacks on Agar have been Hez - and the mafia agreed way ahead of time that they would spend the whole game discrediting Hez.
WIFOM
* In the post where Hez calls Agar/Peabody/Oman the scum-team because those are the three wagons he could never get support for, it is either a massive coincidence that Agar and Hez will be going to LyLo together, or Hez has planned out several days in advance and had every intention of taking Agar to LyLo with him.
WIFOM
* the question is? If Hez is scum, its obvious why Peabody/Oman would have been two people Hez could not lead a wagon on - but how could Hez have known that he would be going to LyLo with Agar, and thus be able to put him as the third? This can't even be planned because Hez's attack on Agar was GOOD at the start of Day 2. By all intentions Agar should have been lynched like that. That is extremely risky for mafia to be relying on town stupidity like that.
WIFOM
- Also, this scenario requires Hez to have killed Elmo, which I have established he would not, especially so soon after Paranoia Mafia.
That's what it comes down to. Hez is either scum who has crafted a very convoluted web - which is possible, and I don't blame you for thinking that. What I do blame you for is the fact that the alternate explanation is so damn simple. Yes, most mafia games have massive WIFOM attached to them. So you have every right to be paranoid or suspicious.
But not in this case. This is not WIFOM versus WIFOM like most mafia games.
This is SIMPLE versus WIFOM.
A new player would get this right - every single time.
Maybe you do think that I am brilliant enough to weave a web of WIFOM. Sure. But I cannot control Agar's play - and Agar's play is the one that's incriminating here. My play yield paranoia, but his play is just flat out scum - and not something I could have planned if I were scum.
I have one final request: I don't know which of you will be going into LyLo tomorrow. I request that I get to place my vote on Agar before you vote. This is because
a) I would like some final words.
b) If there is anything more that needs to be covered I want to cover it.
So this is question #2
#2 - Comment on any of the above that you feel fit _AND_ please agree to my request.
I wish this was stronger. It is so much stronger in my head. Whatever. Have a hezwavre.
HEZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZWAVRE
