Here's my not particularly well organised thoughts from reading through each player one more time.
armlx (and predecessors)
D1 - Not a lot to look at, thanks to the cop claim insta-lynch. Votes Six Aces after the hammer was already dropped.
D2 - Voted kabenon after 5 others already had, without a great deal of reasoning given. The reasoning that was there seems fairly solid, but yeah, that's definitely adding some points in the 'mafia' column.
D3 - Posts some Spacecase suspicion, but it's only after quite a few others already have, and doesn't bring up any new points. No vote. ssf drops out. pdne steps in, does nothing, drops out. LML steps in. Doesn't believe Jesse/Cipher's cop claim, votes farside/me for some extremely weak reasons for this stage of the game. Completely ignores the major wagon of the day, which happens to be on scum. Swaps to Rigel for, admittedly, pretty valid reasons.
D4 - armlx steps in. Goes after Oman hard, almost to a ridiculous level. "I could tell that Oman needed to die before D1 was over even." Seriously? On the surface, this looks pretty good armlx not being mafia, but I'm seeing a possibility that armlx figured he'd replaced into something of a tight spot and decided that bussing Oman was necessary to make up for his predecessors' actions, even though it would leave him without any more living partners.
D5 - Kicked off with a vote on me, then switched over to dahill without actually offering any explanation at all. He'd stated previously that he thought dahill was SK (also without explanation). Absolutely looks like scum going for the easy lynch (and maybe hoping to take out the other scumgroup, too).
Yeah, I'm definitely calling armlx as mafia.
The Fonz
D1 - Again, not a lot to go on, thanks Jesse. "I usually random NK as scum for precisely the reason that town is likely to tie themselves in WIFOMy knots wondering who had motive to do it." And an unknown showed up dead N0. COINCIDENCE???
D2 - His vote on kabenon looks more like a 'policy lynch' than earnest belief that kabenon was scum. Don't like it. (It was also after the hammer had already been dropped, but Fonz didn't appear to be aware of this at the time).
D3 - Took a long time to get on the Spacecase wagon, but this was mostly because I think he was exploring other avenues more than I've previously given him credit for, I think. Also led the charge on dahill for some issues that I picked up on later, which I'm reading as pro-town even if it turned out to be a bad lead.
D4 - Ah, I miss D4, when everybody apparently realised simultaneously that Oman was obvscum. Good times. The Fonz was the third on that wagon, but brought up new points, and also posted reasonable cases on dahill and armlx at the same time. Looking pretty good.
I think the reaction to dcorbe's SK claim is a very useful thing to look at in trying to finger the real SK. All that The Fonz has to say about it is this: "It seems to me vollkan and armlx have done just fine at stringing you up by your own petard, scum." Possible SK motivation: he knows we're lynching mafia, which is good for him at this stage, and he's gloating. Possible townie motivation: He knows we're lynching mafia or SK, which is good for him at this stage, and he's gloating. Yeah, pretty much a null tell.
D5 - Defends himself well against Shteven's attacks, although I think he is quite blatantly claiming more credit for the Oman wagon than he actually deserves. His vote on dahill was totally justified.
One thing I think is worth mentioning, which was a big part of why I previously supported the suggestion of Fonz as SK, is that (besides a random vote at the start of the game), Fonz has NEVER voted for a player who wasn't eventually lynched that day. This kind of lends weight to the idea that he's been "echoing generic townie sentiments", as Shteven put it. However, I think he did make more cases of his own than I remembered on D3, at least, just none of them came with votes.
Shteven
D1 - Still not a lot worth mentioning on this day. Shteven says "I'm uncomfortable with the speed of this lynch". I'll get back to that.
D2 - Vote on farside for possible role-fishing - fair enough, I'd probably find that suspicious too if I didn't know farside was innocent. Shteven says "I'm uncomfortable with the speed of this lynch". Also tries to urge people to look at other suspects than kabenon, without actually putting forward any cases himself, until pushed to do so.
D3 - First vote on Spacecase, although he wasn't the first to point out Spacecase's scummy behaviour. Still, it's good, decisive action, looking townie. But then, later, another post urging people to look at other suspects than Spacecase, without putting forward any suggestions himself, and after he's said things like "Spacecase is scum, get to it folks." and "As for spacecase, I'm still pretty certain he's scum."
Starts planting his seeds of suspicion on Fonz here. He backs away from it when Fonz defends himself well, but then keeps coming back to it, which is not sitting well with me. It just doesn't feel like completely honest scumhunting.
"How can people read Rigel's last post and not be voting Spacecase? It's about that time... " We've been over this over and over, but yes, it's scummy. I wrote it off when Spacecase flipped mafia, because I was thinking of it as scum trying to push a lynch on an innocent, but I suppose it also fits the bill of SK trying to push a lynch on
anyone
.
D4 - Early vote on dahill, which looks like it conflicts with all his attempts to distance himself from that wagon recently. Shteven says "I'm uncomfortable with the speed of this wagon." Sounds strangely familiar, somehow. He'd also like to urge people to consider suspects other than Oman, surprisingly, although to be fair, he does actually make a case on armlx himself. It's a pretty weak case, but still, that's progress of a sort.
Reactions to dcorbe's SK claim could be a good look, as I said before, and there's a lot more here than there was with The Fonz. "Who benefits the most by killing the SK? The mafia." I don't think this was true at the time (See vollkan's
Post #1021), but as SK, it would certainly benefit Shteven to convince us that it was.
D5 - "Well, first scum wagon I wasn't on in this game so far. At least not on it in its final state." HEY EVERYBODY LOOK HOW GOOD I'VE BEEN AT CATCHING SCUM! Votes dahill without any reasoning, and is now trying desperately to distance himself from that wagon. I'm looking at his case on The Fonz, and I'm not seeing a lot of points that aren't either completely unsubstanciated, or equally applicable to Shteven himself.
iamausername wrote:I'll make a more substantial post after I've done some more rereading, hopefully by the end of today, and give a more considered ordering then, which
may well be totally different from this one.
Yep.
1. armlx
2. Shteven
3. The Fonz
armlx at #1 because I can't see either of the others as mafia, while I can still see some possibilty of Fonz as SK, though I'm definitely leaning more towards Shteven on that.
armlx points list updated:
Shteven- 8 points (3 from armlx, 3 from Fonz, 2 from username)
Armlx- 6 points (2 from Fonz, 3 from username, 1 from Shteven)
Fonz- 5 Points (3 from Shteven, 1 from username, 1 from armlx)
Username- 5 points (2 from Armlx, 2 from Shteven, 1 from Fonz)
Would definitely like to hear some thoughts from vollkan at this point.